Projected effects of Climate-change-induced flow alterations on stream macroinvertebrate abundances

Spatial asymmetry of temporal ecological processes can shift in riverine macroinvertebrates responding to fluctuating climate conditions

Exploring the temporal dynamics of biological communities can offer valuable insights into the underlying mechanisms driving changes in biodiversity in the context of short and long-term effects of climate fluctuations. However, an understanding of how temporal shifts in climatic fluctuations influence the spatial patterns of the temporary ecological processes remains unexplored. This study examined the relative importance of temporary deterministic and stochastic processes (i.e., the influence of environmental filtering compared to stochastic variation within the same community) on community dynamics across watersheds in 15 rivers of the European Iberian Peninsula using 21 years of data. This study was divided into two time periods (i.e., 1997-2006 and 2007-2017). The climatic differences between the periods included decreasing levels and heightened variability of precipitation. Additionally, there were declining minimum temperatures and rising maximum temperatures, accompanied by reduced fluctuations in both minimum and maximum temperatures. Water quality and its variations also occur along an elevation pattern and changed over the time period studied. Spatial patterns of the relative importance of the ecological processes shifted between the two decades. The significance of stochastic processes increased with elevation in the earlier period, although no clear elevation pattern emerged in the later period. At the same time, the importance of deterministic processes decreased with elevation in the earlier period, and there was no clear pattern of elevation in the later period. An understanding of the patterns in community dynamics existing at various elevations over time can lay the groundwork for predicting and mitigating the impacts of short-term climate changes on biodiversity and guide appropriate conservation actions.

Combined effects of river hydromorphological disturbances on macroinvertebrate communities: Multispatial scales analysis of central European rivers

Hydro-morphological threats impact the natural physical characteristics of river ecosystems, such as flow regimes, sediment transport, and channel morphology. These negative effects can occur at multiple scales, ranging from local microhabitats to geographic regions. Understanding these interactions can be useful for an integrated conservation approach and is needed for effective freshwater management. The aim of the study was to elucidate the combined effects of hydro-morphological threats on macroinvertebrates at three spatial scales: macroscale, including whole catchments, mesoscale (hydro-morphological changes in individual river sections) and the microscale, describing the microhabitat conditions of European rivers. The diversity and trophic structure of 1120 local macroinvertebrate communities in 28 catchments of various hydro-morphological disturbance levels, ranging from 0 to 2400 m asl, were analyzed. The response of macroinvertebrates to the main disturbance gradient differed between mountain and lowland communities. Random forest analysis indicated that the most important predictor of the ecological, diversity, and trophic indices was described by flow rate reduction. Generalized additive mixed models showed that decreased flow combined with river incision explained most of the variation in macroinvertebrate indices. Our results emphasize that based on multi-spatial scale analysis, hydro-morphological threats are very important factors in invertebrates biodiversity loss. Thus, to implement effective river management, we should pay more attention to the combined effects of geomorphological threats.

Multidecadal data indicate increase of aquatic insects in Central European streams

In recent years, declining insect biodiversity has sparked interest among scientists and drawn the attention of society and politicians. However, our understanding of the extent of this decline is incomplete, particularly for freshwater insects that provide a key trophic link between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but that are also especially vulnerable to climate change. To investigate the response of freshwater insects to climate change, we quantified shifts in insect abundance and diversity across 7264 samples covering Central Europe during 1990-2018 and related these changes to annual data on temperature and precipitation. We observed both increases in richness (10.6 %) and abundance (9.5 %) of freshwater insects over the past three decades. These changes were related to increases in summer temperature and summer precipitation, which had negative effects on species richness, and to increases in winter temperature and precipitation, which had positive effects. Further we found that increased temperature was generally related to increased abundance, whereas increased precipitation was associated with declines, thus highlighting the particularly varying impacts on differing insect orders. Given that freshwater insects have been more severely affected by global change than marine and terrestrial species, the observed increases are a positive sign, but the overall situation of freshwater invertebrates is still critical.

Climatically promoted taxonomic homogenization of macroinvertebrates in unaffected streams varies along the river continuum

Biotic homogenization appears to be a global consequence of anthropogenic change. However, the underlying environmental factors contributing to homogenization are difficult to identify because their effects usually interact and confound each other. This can be the reason why there is very little evidence on the role of climate warming in homogenization. By analysing macroinvertebrate assemblages in 65 streams that were as close to natural conditions as possible, we avoided the confounding effects of common anthropogenic stressors. This approach resulted in revealing a significant effect of increased temperature (both summer and winter) on changes in macroinvertebrate compositional over the past two decades. However, homogenization was significant only at opposite ends of the river continuum (submontane brooks, low-altitude rivers). Surprisingly, species of native origin predominated overall, increasing in frequency and abundance ("winners"), while only a minority of species declined or disappeared ("losers"). We hypothesise that undisturbed conditions mitigate species declines and thus homogenization, and that the temperature increase has so far been beneficial to most native species. Although we may have only captured a transitional state due to extinction debt, this underscores the importance of maintaining ecological conditions in stream to prevent species loss due to climate change.

Distinct indicators of land use and hydrology characterize different aspects of riverine phytoplankton communities

Given the many threats to freshwater biodiversity, we need to be able to resolve which of the multiple stressors present in rivers are most important in driving change. Phytoplankton are a key component of the aquatic ecosystem, their abundance, species richness and functional richness are important indicators of ecosystem health. In this study, spatial variables, physiochemical conditions, water flow alterations and land use patterns were considered as the joint stressors from a lowland rural catchment. A modeling approach combining an ecohydrological model with machine learning was applied. The results implied that land use and flow regime, rather than nutrients, were most important in explaining differences in the phytoplankton community. In particular, the percentage of water body area and medium level residential urban area were key to driving the rising phytoplankton abundance in this rural catchment. The proportion of forest and pasture area were the leading factors controlling the variations of species richness. In this case deciduous forest cover affected the species richness in a positive way, while, pasture share had a negative effect. Indicators of hydrological alteration were found to be the best predictors for the differences in functional richness. This integrated model framework was found to be suitable for analysis of complex environmental conditions in river basin management. A key message would be the significance of forest area preservation and ecohydrological restoration in maintaining both phytoplankton richness and their functional role in river ecosystems.

A machine learning model to assess the ecosystem response to water policy measures in the Tagus River Basin (Spain)

Anthropogenic activities are seriously endangering the conservation of biodiversity worldwide, calling for urgent actions to mitigate their impact on ecosystems. We applied machine learning techniques to predict the response of freshwater ecosystems to multiple anthropogenic pressures, with the goal of informing the definition of water policy targets and management measures to recover and protect aquatic biodiversity. Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Regression Trees algorithms were used for the modelling of the biological indices of macroinvertebrates and diatoms in the Tagus river basin (Spain). Among the anthropogenic stressors considered as explanatory variables, the categories of land cover in the upstream catchment area and the nutrient concentrations showed the highest impact on biological communities. The model was then used to predict the biological response to different nutrient concentrations in river water, with the goal of exploring the effect of different regulatory thresholds on the ecosystem status. Specifically, we considered the maximum nutrient concentrations set by the Spanish legislation, as well as by the legislation of other European Union Member States. According to our model, the current nutrient thresholds in Spain ensure values of biological indices consistent with the good ecological status in only about 60% of the total number of water bodies. By applying more restrictive nutrient concentrations, the number of water bodies with biological indices in good status could increase by almost 40%. Moreover, coupling more restrictive nutrient thresholds with measures that improve the riparian habitat yields up to 85% of water bodies with biological indices in good status, thus proving to be a key approach to restore the status of the ecosystem.

Increasing climate-driven taxonomic homogenization but functional differentiation among river macroinvertebrate assemblages

Global change is increasing biotic homogenization globally, which modifies the functioning of ecosystems. While tendencies towards taxonomic homogenization in biological communities have been extensively studied, functional homogenization remains an understudied facet of biodiversity. Here, we tested four hypotheses related to long-term changes (1991-2016) in the taxonomic and functional arrangement of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages across space and possible drivers of these changes. Using data collected annually at 64 river sites in mainland New Zealand, we related temporal changes in taxonomic and functional spatial β-diversity, and the contribution of individual sites to β-diversity, to a set of global, regional, catchment and reach-scale environmental descriptors. We observed long-term, mostly climate-induced, temporal trends towards taxonomic homogenization but functional differentiation among macroinvertebrate assemblages. These changes were mainly driven by replacements of species and functional traits among assemblages, rather than nested species loss. In addition, there was no difference between the mean rate of change in the taxonomic and functional facets of β-diversity. Climatic processes governed overall population and community changes in these freshwater ecosystems, but were amplified by multiple anthropogenic, topographic and biotic drivers of environmental change, acting widely across the landscape. The functional diversification of communities could potentially provide communities with greater stability, resistance and resilience capacity to environmental change, despite ongoing taxonomic homogenization. Therefore, our study highlights a need to further understand temporal trajectories in both taxonomic and functional components of species communities, which could enable a clearer picture of how biodiversity and ecosystems will respond to future global changes.

Quantifying the effects of climate change on hydrological regime and stream biota in a groundwater-dominated catchment: A modelling approach combining SWAT-MODFLOW with flow-biota empirical models

Climate change may affect stream ecosystems through flow regime alterations, which can be particularly complex in streams with a significant groundwater contribution. To quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and subsequently the stream biota, we linked SWAT-MODFLOW (A model coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Modular Finite-difference Flow Model) with flow-biota empirical models that included indices for three key biological taxonomic identities (fish, macroinvertebrates and macrophytes) and applied the model-complex to a groundwater-dominated catchment in Denmark. Effects of predicted climate change towards the end of this century relative to the reference period (1996-2005) were tested with two contrasting climate change scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP 2.6) and RCP 8.5) and analysed for all subbasins grouped into streams of three size classes. The total water yield in the catchment did not change significantly (-1 ± 4 (SD) mm yr^-1) from the baseline in the RCP2.6 scenario, while it increased by 9 ± 11 mm yr^-1 in the RCP8.5 scenario. The three stream size classes underwent different alterations in flow regime and also demonstrated different biotic responses to climate change. All large and some small streams were impacted most heavily by the climate change, where fish and macrophyte indices decreased up to 14.4% and 11.2%, respectively, whereas these indices increased by up to 14.4% and 6.0%, respectively, in the medium and some small streams. The climate change effects were, as expected, larger in the RCP8.5 scenario than in the RCP2.6 scenario. Our study is the first to quantify the impacts of streamflow alterations induced by climate change on stream biota beyond specific species.

Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species' phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25-30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969-2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.

Density and diversity of macroinvertebrates in Colombian Andean streams impacted by mining, agriculture and cattle production

Background

Mining, agriculture and cattle production are activities that threaten the quality and quantity of water resources in the Colombian Andes. However, many drainage basins in this region have not been subjected to simultaneous evaluation of the impact these activities have on the density, diversity and composition of aquatic macroinvertebrates (AMI). The first two of these ecological variables are expected to decrease drastically from zones with no apparent impact towards areas with anthropogenic activity, which areas with mining will present the most impoverished AMI community.

Methods

We evaluated the density, diversity and composition dissimilarity of AMI in streams impacted by gold mining, agriculture and cattle production. Two reference streams were also studied. Six benthic samplings were conducted bimonthly (Feb 2014–Feb 2015) using a Surber net. Water samples were taken in order to make environmental evaluation among the aforementioned streams, including hydrological, physicochemical and bacteriological parameters (HPCB). Diversity was evaluated as the effective number of RTUs—recognizable taxonomic units—by comparing the richness, typical diversity, and effective number of the most abundant RTUs. Compositional dissimilarity was examined with nMDS and CCA analysis.

Results

A total of 7,483 organisms were collected: 14 orders, 42 families and 71 RTUs. Our prediction regarding the density and diversity of AMI (Reference > Cattle production > Agriculture > Mining) was partially fulfilled, since the agriculture-dominated stream presented a more impoverished AMI community than that of the gold mining stream. However, these streams presented lower diversity than the cattle production and reference streams, and the AMI density only differed significantly between one reference stream and the agriculture stream. The AMI composition in the agriculture-dominated stream clearly differed from that of the other streams.

Discussion

The observation of a more impoverished AMI community in agricultural production areas compared to those with mining or cattle production may reflect the importance of the remaining riparian vegetation, which was scarce at the stream with agricultural activity. Moreover, the low diversity, and mainly the reduced AMI richness, in the agriculture stream coincided with the absence of insect genera are intolerant to deterioration of the biological and physicochemical conditions of the water (e.g. Anacroneuria).

Conclusions

The results suggest that the local impact of agricultural activities may be of equal or greater magnitude than that of mining in terms of AMI density, diversity and composition, in the Colombian Andean riverscape. Future studies should systematically evaluate, throughout the annual cycle, the relative effects of the productive land use, the remaining native vegetation cover and the consequent changes in the HPCB parameters of the water on AMI communities in Colombian Andean basins.

Climate model variability leads to uncertain predictions of the future abundance of stream macroinvertebrates

Climate change has the potential to alter the flow regimes of rivers and consequently affect the taxonomic and functional diversity of freshwater organisms. We modeled future flow regimes for the 2050 and 2090 time horizons and tested how flow regimes impact the abundance of 150 macroinvertebrate species and their functional trait compositions in one lowland river catchment (Treene) and one mountainous river catchment (Kinzig) in Europe. We used all 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) of the CORDEX dataset under the RCP 8.5 scenario to calculate future river flows. The high variability in relative change of flow among the 16 climate models cascaded into the ecological models and resulted in substantially different predicted abundance values for single species. This variability also cascades into any subsequent analysis of taxonomic or functional freshwater biodiversity. Our results showed that flow alteration effects are different depending on the catchment and the underlying species pool. Documenting such uncertainties provides a basis for the further assessment of potential climate-change impacts on freshwater taxa distributions.

Limitations of trait-based approaches for stressor assessment: The case of freshwater invertebrates and climate drivers

The appeal of trait-based approaches for assessing environmental vulnerabilities arises from the potential insight they provide into the mechanisms underlying the changes in populations and community structure. Traits can provide ecologically based explanations for observed responses to environmental changes, along with predictive power gained by developing relationships between traits and environmental variables. Despite these potential benefits, questions remain regarding the utility and limitations of these approaches, which we explore focusing on the following questions: (a) How reliable are predictions of biotic responses to changing conditions based on single trait-environment relationships? (b) What factors constrain detection of single trait-environment relationships, and how can they be addressed? (c) Can we use information on meta-community processes to reveal conditions when assumptions underlying trait-based studies are not met? We address these questions by reviewing published literature on aquatic invertebrate communities from stream ecosystems. Our findings help to define factors that influence the successful application of trait-based approaches in addressing the complex, multifaceted effects of changing climate conditions on hydrologic and thermal regimes in stream ecosystems. Key conclusions are that observed relationships between traits and environmental stressors are often inconsistent with predefined hypotheses derived from current trait-based thinking, particularly related to single trait-environment relationships. Factors that can influence findings of trait-based assessments include intercorrelations of among traits and among environmental variables, spatial scale, strength of biotic interactions, intensity of habitat disturbance, degree of abiotic stress, and methods of trait characterization. Several recommendations are made for practice and further study to address these concerns, including using phylogenetic relatedness to address intercorrelation. With proper consideration of these issues, trait-based assessment of organismal vulnerability to environmental changes can become a useful tool to conserve threatened populations into the future.

Research questions to facilitate the future development of European long-term ecosystem research infrastructures: A horizon scanning exercise

Distributed environmental research infrastructures are important to support assessments of the effects of global change on landscapes, ecosystems and society. These infrastructures need to provide continuity to address long-term change, yet be flexible enough to respond to rapid societal and technological developments that modify research priorities. We used a horizon scanning exercise to identify and prioritize emerging research questions for the future development of ecosystem and socio-ecological research infrastructures in Europe. Twenty research questions covered topics related to (i) ecosystem structures and processes, (ii) the impacts of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystems, (iii) ecosystem services and socio-ecological systems and (iv), methods and research infrastructures. Several key priorities for the development of research infrastructures emerged. Addressing complex environmental issues requires the adoption of a whole-system approach, achieved through integration of biotic, abiotic and socio-economic measurements. Interoperability among different research infrastructures needs to be improved by developing standard measurements, harmonizing methods, and establishing capacities and tools for data integration, processing, storage and analysis. Future research infrastructures should support a range of methodological approaches including observation, experiments and modelling. They should also have flexibility to respond to new requirements, for example by adjusting the spatio-temporal design of measurements. When new methods are introduced, compatibility with important long-term data series must be ensured. Finally, indicators, tools, and transdisciplinary approaches to identify, quantify and value ecosystem services across spatial scales and domains need to be advanced.

Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10- to 40-fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.