Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains region

The Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of Species Richness of Endemic Wetland Plants in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the region with the richest biodiversity and the most important ecological barrier function at high altitudes, are highly sensitive to global change, and wetland plants, which are important indicators of wetland ecosystem structure and function, are also threatened by wetland degradation. Therefore, a comprehensive study of changes in the geographical distribution pattern of plant diversity, as well as species loss and turnover of wetlands in the QTP in the context of global climate change is of great importance for the conservation and restoration of wetland ecosystems in the QTP. In this study, species turnover and loss of 395 endemic wetland plants of the QTP were predicted based on the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios. The results showed that there were interspecific differences in the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of species, and that most endemic wetland plants would experience range contraction. Under the climate change scenarios, the loss of suitable wetland plant habitat is expected to occur mainly in parts of the southern, north-central and north-western parts of the plateau, while the gain is mainly concentrated in parts of the western Sichuan Plateau, the Qilian Mountains, the Three Rivers Source Region and the northern Tibetan Plateau. Overlaying the analysis of priority protected areas with the established protected areas in the QTP has resulted in the following conservation gaps: the eastern Himalayan region, midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the transition zone between the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains, Minshan-Qionglai mountain, Anyemaqen Mountains (southeast) to Bayankala (southeast) mountains, the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains and the northern Tibetan Plateau region. In the future, the study of wetland plant diversity in the QTP and the optimisation of protected areas should focus on the conservation gaps. This study is of great importance for the study and conservation of wetland plant diversity in the QTP, and also provides a scientific basis for predicting the response of wetland plants to climate change in the QTP.

Degeneration of foundation cushion species induced by ecological constraints can cause massive changes in alpine plant communities

Foundational cushion plants can re-organize community structures and sustain a prominent proportion of alpine biodiversity, but they are sensitive to climate change. The loss of cushion species can have broad consequences for associated biota. The potential plant community changes with the population dynamics of cushion plants remain, however, unclear. Using eight plant communities along a climatic and community successional gradient, we assessed cushion population dynamics, the underlying ecological constraints and hence associated plant community changes in alpine communities dominated by the foundational cushion plant Arenaria polytrichoides. The population dynamics of Arenaria are attributed to ecological constraints at a series of life history stages. Reproductive functions are constrained by increasing associated beneficiary plants; subsequent seedling establishment is constrained by temperature, water and light availability, extreme climate events, and interspecific competition; strong competitive exclusion may accelerate mortality and degeneration of cushion populations. Along with cushion dynamics, species composition, abundance and community structure gradually change. Once cushion plants completely degenerate, previously cushion-dominated communities shift to relatively stable communities that are overwhelmingly dominated by sedges. Climate warming may accelerate the degeneration process of A. polytrichoides. Degeneration of this foundational cushion plant will possibly induce massive changes in alpine plant communities and hence ecosystem functions in alpine ecosystems. The assessment of the population dynamics of foundation species is critical for an effective conservation of alpine biodiversity.

The relationship between niche breadth and phylogenetic characteristics of eight species of rhubarb on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Asia

The relationship between spatial distribution and phylogeny has been widely debated in recent decades. To understand biogeographic and evolutionary history relationships and to explore the interspecific similarities and phylogenetic correlations of niche characteristics, we collected and recorded all distribution points for eight species of rhubarb on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, used different methods to describe the ecological niche, and explored the relationship between phylogeny, ecological niche, and distribution range. The results reveal that: (1) the ranges of optimal environmental variables for species with close kinship are not exactly the same, ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species, and the overlap of rhubarb has no significant correlation with phylogeny. Therefore, the impact of ecological dimensions on species formation is greater than that of geographical latitude for the eight species of rhubarb. (2) Among the eight species of rhubarb, the breadth of ecological niche is positively correlated with the current suitable habitat area and negatively correlated with fluctuations in future suitable habitat area. In the future, except for Rheum tanguticum and Rheum palmatum, the suitable planting areas for the other six species of rhubarb will decrease as greenhouse gas emissions concentrations and time increase. Therefore, species with smaller ecological niches are at a greater risk of habitat loss compared to species with larger ecological niches. (3) In both existing and future distribution prediction models of rhubarb, we observed that both the widely distributed Rheum spiciforme and the niche narrow Rheum nobile, all eight species of rhubarb are present in the Hengduan Mountains, based on our analysis, we propose that the Hengduan Mountains should be regarded as a priority conservation area for rhubarb, to preserve the species' biodiversity. Our study lays the groundwork for identifying evolutionary trends in ecological specialization.

Prediction of potential distributions of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis in China

Changes in the habitats of species can provide insights into the impact of climate change on their habitats. Species in the genus Morina (Morinoideae) are perennial herbaceous plants that are mainly distributed in the South Asian Mountains and Eastern Mediterranean. In China, there are four species and two varieties of this genus distributed across the Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. This study used the optimal MaxEnt model to simulate past, current, and future potentially suitable habitats of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis. Seventy data of M. kokonorica occurrences and 3 of M. chinensis were used in the model to predict potentially suitable habitats. The model prediction results indicated that both M. kokonorica and M. chinensis exhibited trends of northward migration to higher latitudes and westward migration along the Himalayas to higher elevations, suggesting that the northern valleys of Hengduan Mountains and northern and eastern parts of the Himalayas were potential refugia for M. kokonorica, and the potential refugia for M. chinensis was located in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results of this niche analysis showed that the two species had higher levels of interspecific competition and that the environmental adaptability of M. chinensis was stronger. This research could help further understand the response pattern of Morina to environmental change, to understand the adaptability of species to the environment, and promote the protection of species.

Phylogenetic diversity only weakly mitigates climate-change-driven biodiversity loss in insect communities

To help address the underrepresentation of arthropods and Asian biodiversity from climate-change assessments, we carried out year-long, weekly sampling campaigns with Malaise traps at different elevations and latitudes in Gaoligongshan National Park in southwestern China. From these 623 samples, we barcoded 10,524 beetles and compared scenarios of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss, by designating seasonal, elevational, and latitudinal subsets of beetles as communities that plausibly could go extinct as a group, which we call "loss sets". The availability of a published mitochondrial-genome-based phylogeny of the Coleoptera allowed us to compare the loss of species diversity with and without accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. We hypothesised that phylogenetic relatedness would mitigate extinction, since the extinction of any loss set would result in the disappearance of all its species but only part of its evolutionary history, which is still extant in the remaining loss sets. We found different patterns of community clustering by season and latitude, depending on whether phylogenetic information was incorporated. However, accounting for phylogeny only slightly mitigated the amount of biodiversity loss under climate change scenarios, against our expectations: there is no phylogenetic "escape clause" for biodiversity conservation. We achieve the same results whether phylogenetic information was derived from the mitogenome phylogeny or from a de novo barcode-gene tree. We encourage interested researchers to use this data set to study lineage-specific community assembly patterns in conjunction with life-history traits and environmental covariates.

Contrasting range changes of terrestrial orchids under future climate change in China

Climate change has impacted the distribution and abundance of numerous plant and animal species during the last century. Orchidaceae is one of the largest yet most threatened families of flowering plants. However, how the geographical distribution of orchids will respond to climate change is largely unknown. Habenaria and Calanthe are among the largest terrestrial orchid genera in China and around the world. In this paper, we modeled the potential distribution of eight Habenaria species and ten Calanthe species in China under the near-current period (1970-2000) and the future period (2081-2100) to test the following two hypotheses: 1) narrow-ranged species are more vulnerable to climate change than wide-ranged species; 2) niche overlap between species is positively correlated with their phylogenetic relatedness. Our results showed that most Habenaria species will expand their ranges, although the climatic space at the southern edge will be lost for most Habenaria species. In contrast, most Calanthe species will shrink their ranges dramatically. Contrasting range changes between Habenaria and Calanthe species may be explained by their differences in climate-adaptive traits such as underground storage organs and evergreen/deciduous habits. Habenaria species are predicted to generally shift northwards and to higher elevations in the future, while Calanthe species are predicted to shift westwards and to higher elevations. The mean niche overlap among Calanthe species was higher than that of Habenaria species. No significant relationship between niche overlap and phylogenetic distance was detected for both Habenaria and Calanthe species. Species range changes in the future was also not correlated with their near current range sizes for both Habenaria and Calanthe. The results of this study suggest that the current conservation status of both Habenaria and Calanthe species should be adjusted. Our study highlights the importance of considering climate-adaptive traits in understanding the responses of orchid taxa to future climate change.

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Species Meconopsis punicea Maxim under Future Climate Change Based on Four Species Distribution Models

Climate change increases the extinction risk of species, and studying the impact of climate change on endangered species is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. In this study, the endangered plant Meconopsis punicea Maxim (M. punicea) was selected as the research object. Four species distribution models (SDMs): the generalized linear model, the generalized boosted regression tree model, random forest and flexible discriminant analysis were applied to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climates scenarios. Among them, two emission scenarios of sharing socio-economic pathways (SSPs; i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and two global circulation models (GCMs) were considered for future climate conditions. Our results showed that temperature seasonality, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the potential distribution of M. punicea. The prediction of the four SDMs consistently indicated that the current potential distribution area of M. punicea is concentrated between 29.02° N-39.06° N and 91.40° E-105.89° E. Under future climate change, the potential distribution of M. punicea will expand from the southeast to the northwest, and the expansion area under SSP5-8.5 would be wider than that under SSP2-4.5. In addition, there were significant differences in the potential distribution of M. punicea predicted by different SDMs, with slight differences caused by GCMs and emission scenarios. Our study suggests using agreement results from different SDMs as the basis for developing conservation strategies to improve reliability.

Phylogeny and Historical Biogeography of the East Asian Clematis Group, Sect. Tubulosae, Inferred from Phylogenomic Data

The evolutionary history of Clematis section Tubulosae, an East Asian endemic lineage, has not been comprehensively studied. In this study, we reconstruct the phylogeny of this section with a complete sampling using a phylogenomic approach. The genome skimming method was applied to obtain the complete plastome sequence, the nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA), and the nuclear SNPs data for phylogenetic reconstruction. Using a Bayesian molecular clock approach and ancestral range reconstruction, we reconstruct biogeographical history and discuss the biotic and abiotic factors that may have shaped the distribution patterns of the section. Both nuclear datasets better resolved the phylogeny of the sect. Tubulosae than the plastome sequence. Sect. Tubulosae was resolved as a monophyletic group sister to a clade mainly containing species from the sect. Clematis and sect. Aspidanthera. Within sect. Tubulosae, two major clades were resolved by both nuclear datasets. Two continental taxa, C. heracleifolia and C. tubulosa var. ichangensis, formed one clade. One continental taxon, C. tubulosa, and all the other species from Taiwan island, the Korean peninsula, and the Japanese archipelago formed the other clade. Molecular dating results showed that sect. Tubulosae diverged from its sister clade in the Pliocene, and all the current species diversified during the Pleistocene. Our biogeographical reconstruction suggested that sect. Tubulosae evolved and began species diversification, most likely in mainland China, then dispersed to the Korean peninsula, and then expanded its range through the Japanese archipelago to Taiwan island. Island species diversity may arise through allopatric speciation by vicariance events following the range fragmentation triggered by the climatic oscillation and sea level change during the Pleistocene epoch. Our results highlight the importance of climatic oscillation during the Pleistocene to the spatial-temporal diversification patterns of the sect. Tubulosae.

The roles of species' relatedness and climate of origin in determining optical leaf traits over a large set of taxa growing at high elevation and high latitude

Climate change is driving many mountain plant species to higher elevations and northern plant species to higher latitudes. However, various biotic or abiotic constraints may restrict any range shift, and one relevant factor for migration to higher elevations could be species' ability to tolerate high UV-doses. Flavonoids are engaged in photoprotection, but also serve multiple ecological roles. We compared plant optical leaf trait responses of a large set of taxa growing in two botanical gardens (French Alps and southern Finland), considering potential constraints imposed by the relatedness of taxa and the legacy of climatic conditions at plants' original collection sites. The segregation of optically measured leaf traits along the phylogeny was studied using a published mega-tree GBOTB.extended.tre for vascular plants as a backbone. For a subset of taxa, we investigated the relationship between climatic conditions (namely solar radiation, temperature and precipitation at a coarse scale) at the plants' original collection site and current trait values. Upon testing the phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ), we found a significant difference but intermediate lambda values overall for flavonol or flavone index (I_flav) and anthocyanin index (I_ant), indicating that phylogenetic relatedness alone failed to explain the changes in trait values under a Brownian motion model of trait evolution. The local analysis (local indicator of phylogenetic association) indicated mostly positive autocorrelations for I_flav i.e. similarities in optically measured leaf traits, often among species from the same genus. We found significant relationships between climatic variables and leaf chlorophyll index (I_chl), but not I_flav, particularly for annual solar radiation. Changes in plants' I_flav across microhabitats differing in UV irradiance and predominately high F _v /F _m indicated that most plants studied had sufficient flexibility in photoprotection, conferred by I_flav, to acclimate to contemporary UV irradiances in their environment. While not explaining the mechanisms behind observed trait values, our findings do suggest that some high-elevation taxa display similar leaf flavonoid accumulation responses. These may be phylogenetically constrained and hence moderate plants' capacity to adjust to new combinations of environmental conditions resulting from climate change.

Potential climatic and elevational range shifts in the Italian narrow endemic Bellevalia webbiana (Asparagaceae) under climate change scenarios

The Webb’s hyacinth (Bellevalia webbiana Parl., Asparagaceae) is an Italian narrow endemic species, listed as Endangered (EN A2c) in the IUCN Global Red List of Threatened Species. The range of this bulbous perennial herb is restricted to two disjunct areas of Central Italy, separated by the mountain ridge of Northern Apennine. To evaluate the impact of climate change on this species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) to predict future potential distribution under different scenarios, through Maximum entropy algorithm. The estimated potential distribution highlights the vulnerability of Webb’s hyacinth to the effects of climate change. The current potential Area Of Occupancy (AOO) (992 2×2 km cells) is forecast to dramatically decrease in the range 2041–2100, under the scenarios SSP3-7.0 (2070 = –249, 2100 = –682) and SSP5-8.5 (2070 = –372, 2100 = –948). In all future scenarios, the predicted potential distribution shifts towards higher elevations, located in the two main areas in which the species currently occurs. This could imply a loss of the current genetic differentiation documented at the population level. To overcome these problems, in addition to assisted colonization, an ex situ conservation programme should be planned.

Determining Effective Environmental Factors in the Distribution of Endangered Endemic Medicinal Plant Species Using the BMLR Model: The Example of Wild Celery (Kelussia odoratissima Mozaff., Apiaceae) in Zagros (Iran)

Kelussia odoratissima Mozaff. is a medicinal species native to Iran. The goal of this research was to determine the environmental factors important for the distribution of K. doratissima in Iran using BMLR modeling. Six random transects were established throughout the species’ habitat, and 220 quadrats with an area of 4 m2 were plotted. The canopy cover percentages of K. doratissima were estimated in each quadrat. Topographic factors, including elevation, slope, and aspect maps, were generated by creating DEM images. Land use, land evaluation, evaporation, temperature, and precipitation maps of the area were created accordingly. The data collected from the experiments were analyzed using the Minitab and R statistical packages. To determine the effect of the studied factors in the distribution of K. doratissima, we ran a set of backward multiple linear regressions. The results showed that the effects of evaporation, elevation, and slope were significant in the species’ distribution, with elevation having a positive effect and evaporation and slope showing negative effects. Further, elevation had the highest effect on distribution (greatest absolute value of beta at 9.660). The next most significant factors in the plant’s distribution were evaporation (beta = 8.282) and slope (beta = 0.807), respectively.

The effectiveness of a large protected area to conserve a global endemism hotspot may vanish in the face of climate and land-use changes

Endemic vertebrates are a crucial component of biodiversity, yet face disproportionally high extinction risk as climate and land-use changes drive habitat loss. Large protected areas are therefore deemed necessary to mitigate biodiversity loss. In 2021, China’s Giant Panda National Park (GPNP, 27,134 km2) was established in one of the global endemism hotspots. In this study we ask the question whether this large national park is able to conserve the many threatened endemic vertebrates occurring in the region in the face of climate and land-use changes, in order to assess the long-term effectiveness of the GPNP. We used species distribution modeling techniques to project the distributions of 40 threatened terrestrial (and freshwater) endemic vertebrates under land-use and climate change scenarios SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 in 2081–2100, and assessed the extent to which their distributions are covered by the GPNP, now and in the future. We found that by 2081–2100, two thirds of the threatened endemic vertebrates are predicted to lose part (15–79%, N = 4) of or (nearly) their entire (80–100% loss, N = 23) range under all three climate and land-use change scenarios. Consequently, fewer species are predicted to occur in the GPNP than at present. Our findings confirm the high vulnerability of threatened endemic species to climate and land-use changes, despite protected areas. Habitat loss due to climate and land-use changes elevate extinction risk of species in endemism hotspots across the globe. Urgent, widespread and intensified mitigation measures and adaptation measures are required at a landscape scale for effective conservation efforts in the future.

Taxonomy and ecology of genus Psyra Walker, 1860 (Lepidoptera: Geometridae: Ennominae) from Indian Himalaya

The Psyra Walker, 1860, is a typical Sino-Himalayan genus of the subfamily Ennominae, currently known by 18 species/4 subspecies globally and 9 species from India. This study aims to revise the taxonomy and ecology of Indian Psyra by providing a morphology-based diagnostic key, highlighting their altitudinal, habitat and seasonal preferences, and modelling their distribution based on current and future climatic scenarios. Here, we describe a new species, P. variabilis sp. nov. and document 4 species and 1 subspecies as new to India, viz. P. gracilis, P. szetschwana, P. dsagara, P. falcipennis and P. debilis debilis, thus updating the global species count to 19 with 14 species/1 subspecies from India. We also submitted partial mitochondrial COI sequences of P. crypta, P. similaria, P. spurcataria and P. gracilis as novel to the global genetic database and calculated the overall genetic divergence was 5.17% within the genus, suggesting strong monophyly. Being a typical montane genus, most of the species of Psyra were active within 2000-2280 m altitude, 10.55-15.7°C annual mean temperature, 1200-2300 mm annual precipitation and 168-179 NDVI. Psyra species were predominant in wet temperate, mixed coniferous and moist temperate deciduous forests, their abundance and richness being at peak during post-monsoon months of October-November. The major bioclimatic variables influencing the overall distribution of the genus were mean temperature of warmest quarter, temperature seasonality and precipitation of coldest/driest quarter. While two of the modelled species were predicted to lose area occupancy under future climatic scenarios, the narrow-specialist, Trans-Himalayan species P. debilis debilis was projected to gain up to 75% additional area in the years 2041-60. The results of this study will be helpful to identify sites with maximum area loss projection in ecologically fragile Indian Himalaya and initiating conservation management for such climatically vulnerable insect species groups.

MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

As an important Tibetan medicine and a secondary protected plant in China, Pomatosace filicula is endemic to the country and is mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions might lead to the extinction of P. filicula. To understand the potential spatial distribution of P. filicula in future global warming scenarios, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate changes in its suitable habitat that would occur by 2050 and 2070 using four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and five global climate models. The results showed that the QTP currently contains a suitable habitat for P. filicula and will continue to do so in the future. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the suitable habitat area would increase by 2050 but shrink slightly by 2070, with an average reduction of 2.7%. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of unsuitable habitat would expand by an average of 54.65% and 68.20% by 2050 and 2070, respectively. The changes in the area of suitable habitat under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios were similar, with the unsuitable area increasing by approximately 20% by 2050 and 2070. Under these two moderate RCPs, the total suitable area in 2070 would be greater than that in 2050. The top three environmental factors impacting the habitat distribution were altitude, annual precipitation (BIO12) and annual temperature range (BIO7). The cumulative contribution rate of these three factors was as high as 82.8%, indicating that they were the key factors affecting the distribution and adaptability of P. filicula, P. filicula grows well in damp and cold environments. Due to global warming, the QTP will become warmer and drier; thus, the growing area of P. filicula will move toward higher elevations and areas that are humid and cold. These areas are mainly found near the Three-River Region. Future climate change will aggravate the deterioration of the P. filicula habitat and increase the species' survival risk. This study describes the distribution of P. filicula and provides a basis for the protection of endangered plants in the QTP.

Combining the Effects of Global Warming, Land Use Change and Dispersal Limitations to Predict the Future Distributions of East Asian Cerris Oaks (Quercus Section Cerris, Fagaceae) in China

Species shift their ranges in response to climate change (CC). However, they may not be able to track optimal conditions as soon as possible, due to limited dispersal ability or habitat fragmentation, caused by land use and land cover change (LULC). This study aimed to explore the combined impacts of CC, LULC and dispersal limitations on the future range dynamics of Quercus acutissima Carruth., Q. variabilis Blume and Q. chenii Nakai, three dominant Cerris oak tree species in warm-temperate and subtropical deciduous forests of China. We used the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to predict the suitable habitats for the years 2050 and 2070, under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Habitat fragmentation patterns were examined to assess the influence of LULC. Two migration scenarios (full- and partial-migration) were compared to evaluate the effect of dispersal limitations. We found that annual precipitation (AP), minimum temperature in the coldest month (MTCM) and temperature seasonality (TS) play a key role in determining the present distributions of Q. chenii, while AP, MTCM and annual mean temperature (AMT) contribute the most to the distribution models of Q. variabilis and Q. acutissima. For all the three species, LULC will increase the level of habitat fragmentation and lead to the loss of core areas, while limited dispersal ability will restrict the accessibility of future potentially suitable habitats. Under the scenarios of CC and LULC, the suitable areas of Q. chenii will decrease sharply, while those of Q. variabilis in South China will become unsuitable. Our findings highlight the importance of considering dispersal ability, as well as land use and land cover change, for modeling species’ range shifts in the face of global warming. Our study also provides vital information for guiding the management of East Asian Cerris oaks in China; Q. chenii should be listed as a species requiring priority protection, and the threatened habitats of Q. variabilis should be protected to buffer the impacts of CC and LULC.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

The Influence of Climate Change on Three Dominant Alpine Species under Different Scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change.

Phylogeography of a widely distributed plant species reveals cryptic genetic lineages with parallel phenotypic responses to warming and drought conditions

To predict how widely distributed species will perform under future climate change, it is crucial to understand and reveal their underlying phylogenetics. However, detailed information about plant adaptation and its genetic basis and history remains scarce and especially widely distributed species receive little attention despite their putatively high adaptability. To examine the adaptation potential of a widely distributed species, we sampled the model plant Silene vulgaris across Europe. In a greenhouse experiment, we exposed the offspring of these populations to a climate change scenario for central Europe and revealed the population structure through whole-genome sequencing. Plants were grown under two temperatures (18°C and 21°C) and three precipitation regimes (65, 75, and 90 mm) to measure their response in biomass and fecundity-related traits. To reveal the population genetic structure, ddRAD sequencing was employed for a whole-genome approach. We found three major genetic clusters in S. vulgaris from Europe: one cluster comprising Southern European populations, one cluster of Western European populations, and another cluster containing central European populations. Population genetic diversity decreased with increasing latitude, and a Mantel test revealed significant correlations between F ST and geographic distances as well as between genetic and environmental distances. Our trait analysis showed that the genetic clusters significantly differed in biomass-related traits and in the days to flowering. However, half of the traits showed parallel response patterns to the experimental climate change scenario. Due to the differentiated but parallel response patterns, we assume that phenotypic plasticity plays an important role for the adaptation of the widely distributed species S. vulgaris and its intraspecific genetic lineages.

Spatiotemporal maintenance of flora in the Himalaya biodiversity hotspot: Current knowledge and future perspectives

Mountain ecosystems support a significant one-third of all terrestrial biodiversity, but our understanding of the spatiotemporal maintenance of this high biodiversity remains poor, or at best controversial. The Himalaya hosts a complex mountain ecosystem with high topographic and climatic heterogeneity and harbors one of the world's richest floras. The high species endemism, together with increasing anthropogenic threats, has qualified the Himalaya as one of the most significant global biodiversity hotspots. The topographic and climatic complexity of the Himalaya makes it an ideal natural laboratory for studying the mechanisms of floral exchange, diversification, and spatiotemporal distributions. Here, we review literature pertaining to the Himalaya in order to generate a concise synthesis of the origin, distribution, and climate change responses of the Himalayan flora. We found that the Himalaya supports a rich biodiversity and that the Hengduan Mountains supplied the majority of the Himalayan floral elements, which subsequently diversified from the late Miocene onward, to create today's relatively high endemicity in the Himalaya. Further, we uncover links between this Miocene diversification and the joint effect of geological and climatic upheavals in the Himalaya. There is marked variance regarding species dispersal, elevational gradients, and impact of climate change among plant species in the Himalaya, and our review highlights some of the general trends and recent advances on these aspects. Finally, we provide some recommendations for conservation planning and future research. Our work could be useful in guiding future research in this important ecosystem and will also provide new insights into the maintenance mechanisms underpinning other mountain systems.

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.

The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto-Himalayan region under future climate change

High-mountain areas such as the Tibeto-Himalayan region (THR) host cold-adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate-niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960-1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061-2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinling Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.

Predicting the habitat distribution of rubber plantations with topography, soil, land use, and climatic factors

Commercial demand is the prerequisite for the expansion of rubber plantation, which is highly dependent on climate, topography, and soil factors. Without the contextual knowledge on these factors, the expansion of rubber plantation would remain unproductive. This study thereby aimed to evaluate the current and future suitable habitat distributions of rubber using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China. A total of 148 field-based presence locations and environmental variables (soil, bioclimatic, topography, and land use) were used to predict the suitable areas of rubber plantations using HadGEM2-ES climate model. Medium and high climatic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 and 8.5) were selected to predict the suitable habitats for the years 2050 and 2070. Among various factors, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of wettest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and soil exchangeable H⁺ contributed significantly to the distribution of rubber. Currently, 1119 km² and 2716 km² were predicted as high and moderately suitable areas respectively. It is predicted with increase rates in the high suitable areas, 49.96% and 328.95% by 2050 and 2070 respectively under RCP 4.5. This result indicates that the medium climate change of RCP 4.5 may have a direct positive effect on the expansion of habitat suitability of rubber. We also found potential areas for rubber cultivation in Jinghong and Mengla townships, where the further expansion is anticipated with desirable land-use planning by conserving reserve forest and native vegetation.

Abnormal shoot growth in Korean red pine as a response to microclimate changes due to urbanization in Korea

Impacts of climate change (e.g., abnormal growth in plants, early flowering, and shifting vegetation zones) are being detected throughout the world. Urban land use and its resulting microclimates work in conjunction with the impacts of climate change. Among the principal environmental signals that modulate bud flush, only temperature has changed significantly in recent years. Throughout South Korea, abnormal shoots (usually known as lammas shoots) in Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora), which were once a rare phenomenon, have become notably more common in recent years. The phenomenon is prominent in urban site of each local area. These abnormal shoots appear at a higher frequency and grow to longer lengths in Seoul's hotter urban center than in suburban sites and showed a close positive correlation with urban density and a close negative correlation with vegetation cover expressed as NDVI. Differences in temperature among the urban center, urban edge, and suburban greenbelt were significantly correlated with land-use intensity. Korean red pines planted in urban parks at sites in urban centers showed a lower frequency of abnormal shoots, and the length of the shoots was shorter, compared with those at the other urban sites. Furthermore, the phenology of Korean red pines in an urban park with a fountain showed a spatial difference, depending upon the distance from the fountain: pine trees close to the fountain did not produce abnormal shoots, but abnormal shoot growth increased with the distance from the fountain. These results are noteworthy because they are related to the cooling effects of evapotranspiration from vegetated landscapes and evaporation from a water body. From the results of this study, we could confirm that microclimate change due to urbanization accelerates the impacts of climate change on plant phenology. Furthermore, we identified the possibility that judicious land-use planning could contribute to minimizing the adverse effects of climate change.

Altitudinal biodiversity patterns of seed plants along Gongga Mountain in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The mechanisms underlying elevation patterns in species and phylogenetic diversity remain a central issue in ecology and are vital for effective biodiversity conservation in the mountains. Gongga Mountain, located in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, represents one of the longest elevational gradients (ca. 6,500 m, from ca. 1,000 to 7,556 m) in the world for studying species diversity patterns. However, the elevational gradient and conservation of plant species diversity and phylogenetic diversity in this mountain remain poorly studied. Here, we compiled the elevational distributions of 2,667 native seed plant species occurring in Gongga Mountain, and estimated the species diversity, phylogenetic diversity, species density, and phylogenetic relatedness across ten elevation belts and five vegetation zones. The results indicated that species diversity and phylogenetic diversity of all seed plants showed a hump-shaped pattern, peaking at 1,800-2,200 m. Species diversity was significantly correlated with phylogenetic diversity and species density. The floras in temperate coniferous broad-leaved mixed forests, subalpine coniferous forests, and alpine shrublands and meadows were significantly phylogenetically clustered, whereas the floras in evergreen broad-leaved forests had phylogenetically random structure. Both climate and human pressure had strong correlation with species diversity, phylogenetic diversity, and phylogenetic structure of seed plants. Our results suggest that the evergreen broad-leaved forests and coniferous broad-leaved mixed forests at low to mid elevations deserve more conservation efforts. This study improves our understanding on the elevational gradients of species and phylogenetic diversity and their determinants and provides support for improvement of seed plant conservation in Gongga Mountain.

Incorporating Local Adaptation Into Species Distribution Modeling of Paeonia mairei, an Endemic Plant to China

Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), a culturally and economically important plant genus, has an isolated taxonomy while the evolution of this genus is unclear. A plant species endemic to southwest China, Paeonia mairei is precious germplasm for evolution-related research and cultivar improvement, and its conservation is urgent. However, little is known about its patterns of habitat distribution and responses to climate change. Using 98 occurrence sites and data of 19 bioclimatic variables, we conducted principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to delineate different climatic populations. Maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was applied to each population to evaluate the importance of environmental variables in shaping their distribution, and to identify distribution shifts under different climate change scenarios. We also applied MaxEnt to all of the P. mairei presence sites (P_Whole) to evaluate the need to construct separate species distribution models for separate populations rather than a common approach by treating them as a whole. Our results show that local adaptation exists within the distribution range of P. mairei and that all presence sites were clustered into a western population (P_West) and an eastern population (P_East). Two variables (precipitation of the driest month and temperature seasonality) are important when shaping the distribution of P_West, and another two variables (mean diurnal range and mean temperature of the wettest quarter) are important for P_East. Both populations are likely to shift upward under climate change, while P_East may lose most current suitable areas while P_West may not. P_Whole produced a narrower area compared to the combination of P_West and P_East but a suitable area (south Chongqing) may have been missed in the prediction. Accordingly, a population-based approach in constructing a species distribution model is needed to provide a detailed appreciation of the distribution of P. mairei, allowing for a population-based conservation strategy. In this case, it could include assisted migration to new and suitable distribution areas for P_West and in situ conservation in high elevation regions for P_East. The results of our study could be a useful reference for implementing the long-term conservation and further research of P. mairei.