Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Variation in phenotypic plasticity across age-at-maturity genotypes in wild Atlantic salmon

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity requires genotype-environment interaction. The discovery of two large-effect loci in the vgll3 and six6 genomic regions associated with the number of years the Atlantic salmon spend feeding at sea before maturation (sea age), provides a unique opportunity to study evolutionary potential of phenotypic plasticity. Using data on 1246 Atlantic salmon caught in the River Surna in Norway, we show that variation in mean sea age among years (smolt cohorts 2013-2018) is influenced by genotype frequencies as well as interaction effects between genotype and year. Genotype-year interactions suggest that genotypes may differ in their response to environmental variation across years, implying genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity. Our results also imply that plasticity in sea age will evolve as an indirect response to selection on mean sea age due to a shared genetic basis. Furthermore, we demonstrate differences between years in the additive and dominance functional genetic effects of vgll3 and six6 on sea age, suggesting that evolutionary responses will vary across environments. Considering the importance of age at maturity for survival and reproduction, genotype-environment interactions likely play an important role in local adaptation and population demography in Atlantic salmon.

Autumn outmigrants in brown trout (Salmo trutta) are not a demographic dead-end

Genetic identity analysis and PIT (passive integrated transponder) tagging were used to examine the freshwater return rates and phenotypic characteristics of n = 1791 downstream migrating juvenile Salmo trutta in the Burrishoole catchment (northwest Ireland) across the period September 2017 to December 2020. In this system, juveniles out-migrate (move from freshwater into brackish or marine habitats) in every month of the year, with distinct seasonal peaks in spring (March through June; mostly silvered smolts) and autumn (September through December; mostly younger, unsilvered fry or parr). Both types exhibited a sex-bias towards females, which was stronger in spring (78% females) than in autumn outmigrants (67%). Sixty-nine returning fish were matched back to previous juvenile outmigrants, and similar return rates were found for spring outmigrants (5.0%), autumn outmigrants (3.3%) and fish that out-migrated outside of spring or autumn (2.8%). Spring and autumn outmigrants returned at similar dates (typically mid to late July), but autumn fish were away for longer periods (median = 612 days; spring outmigrants = 104 days). Autumn outmigrants were 25% smaller than spring outmigrants at outmigration and 6% smaller on their return, and within both groups smaller/younger outmigrants spent longer away than larger/older outmigrants. Autumn outmigrants were more likely to return unsilvered as "slob" trout (84%) than spring outmigrants (31%), suggesting they make greater use of brackish habitats that might be safer, but less productive, than fully marine habitats. Nonetheless, both types also produced silvered "sea trout" (≥1+ sea-age), implying neither is locked into a single life-history strategy. The findings emphasise that autumn outmigrants and the transitional habitats that support their persistence should not be overlooked in salmonid management and conservation.

Phenotypic plasticity drives phenological changes in a Mediterranean blue tit population

Earlier phenology induced by climate change, such as the passerines' breeding time, is observed in many natural populations. Understanding the nature of such changes is key to predict the responses of wild populations to climate change. Genetic changes have been rarely investigated for laying date, though it has been shown to be heritable and under directional selection, suggesting that the trait could evolve. In a Corsican blue tit population, the birds' laying date has significantly advanced over 40 years, and we here determine whether this response is of plastic or evolutionary origin, by comparing the predictions of the breeder's and the Robertson-Price (STS) equations, to the observed genetic changes. We compare the results obtained for two fitness proxies (fledgling and recruitment success), using models accounting for their zero inflation. Because the trait appears heritable and under directional selection, the breeder's equation predicts that genetic changes could drive a significant part of the phenological change observed. We, however, found that fitness proxies and laying date are not genetically correlated. The STS, therefore, predicts no evolution of the breeding time, predicting correctly the absence of trend in breeding values. Our results also emphasize that when investigating selection on a plastic trait under fluctuating selection, part of the fitness-trait phenotypic covariance can be due to within individual covariance. In the case of repeated measurements, splitting within and between individual covariance can shift our perspective on the actual intensity of selection over multiple selection episodes, shedding light on the potential for the trait to evolve.

Captive-bred Atlantic salmon released into the wild have fewer offspring than wild-bred fish and decrease population productivity

The release of captive-bred animals into the wild is commonly practised to restore or supplement wild populations but comes with a suite of ecological and genetic consequences. Vast numbers of hatchery-reared fish are released annually, ostensibly to restore/enhance wild populations or provide greater angling returns. While previous studies have shown that captive-bred fish perform poorly in the wild relative to wild-bred conspecifics, few have measured individual lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and how this affects population productivity. Here, we analyse data on Atlantic salmon from an intensely studied catchment into which varying numbers of captive-bred fish have escaped/been released and potentially bred over several decades. Using a molecular pedigree, we demonstrate that, on average, the LRS of captive-bred individuals was only 36% that of wild-bred individuals. A significant LRS difference remained after excluding individuals that left no surviving offspring, some of which might have simply failed to spawn, consistent with transgenerational effects on offspring survival. The annual productivity of the mixed population (wild-bred plus captive-bred) was lower in years where captive-bred fish comprised a greater fraction of potential spawners. These results bolster previous empirical and theoretical findings that intentional stocking, or non-intentional escapees, threaten, rather than enhance, recipient natural populations.

The 'algebra of evolution': the Robertson-Price identity and viability selection for body mass in a wild bird population

By the Robertson–Price identity, the change in a quantitative trait owing to selection, is equal to the trait's covariance with relative fitness. In this study, we applied the identity to long-term data on superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus, to estimate phenotypic and genetic change owing to juvenile viability selection. Mortality in the four-week period between fledging and independence was 40%, and heavier nestlings were more likely to survive, but why? There was additive genetic variance for both nestling mass and survival, and a positive phenotypic covariance between the traits, but no evidence of additive genetic covariance. Comparing standardized gradients, the phenotypic selection gradient was positive, β_P = 0.108 (0.036, 0.187 95% CI), whereas the genetic gradient was not different from zero, β_A = −0.025 (−0.19, 0.107 95% CI). This suggests that factors other than nestling mass were the cause of variation in survival. In particular, there were temporal correlations between mass and survival both within and between years. We suggest that use of the Price equation to describe cross-generational change in the wild may be challenging, but a more modest aim of estimating its first term, the Robertson–Price identity, to assess within-generation change can provide valuable insights into the processes shaping phenotypic diversity in natural populations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fifty years of the Price equation’.

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree-derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so-called "paradox of stasis." To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies-which have largely been limited to birds and mammals-to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.