Predicting the future of our oceans-Evaluating genomic forecasting approaches in marine species

Climate change is restructuring biodiversity on multiple scales and there is a pressing need to understand the downstream ecological and genomic consequences of this change. Recent advancements in the field of eco-evolutionary genomics have sought to include evolutionary processes in forecasting species' responses to climate change (e.g., genomic offset), but to date, much of this work has focused on terrestrial species. Coastal and offshore species, and the fisheries they support, may be even more vulnerable to climate change than their terrestrial counterparts, warranting a critical appraisal of these approaches in marine systems. First, we synthesize knowledge about the genomic basis of adaptation in marine species, and then we discuss the few examples where genomic forecasting has been applied in marine systems. Next, we identify the key challenges in validating genomic offset estimates in marine species, and we advocate for the inclusion of historical sampling data and hindcasting in the validation phase. Lastly, we describe a workflow to guide marine managers in incorporating these predictions into the decision-making process.

Autumn outmigrants in brown trout (Salmo trutta) are not a demographic dead-end

Genetic identity analysis and PIT (passive integrated transponder) tagging were used to examine the freshwater return rates and phenotypic characteristics of n = 1791 downstream migrating juvenile Salmo trutta in the Burrishoole catchment (northwest Ireland) across the period September 2017 to December 2020. In this system, juveniles out-migrate (move from freshwater into brackish or marine habitats) in every month of the year, with distinct seasonal peaks in spring (March through June; mostly silvered smolts) and autumn (September through December; mostly younger, unsilvered fry or parr). Both types exhibited a sex-bias towards females, which was stronger in spring (78% females) than in autumn outmigrants (67%). Sixty-nine returning fish were matched back to previous juvenile outmigrants, and similar return rates were found for spring outmigrants (5.0%), autumn outmigrants (3.3%) and fish that out-migrated outside of spring or autumn (2.8%). Spring and autumn outmigrants returned at similar dates (typically mid to late July), but autumn fish were away for longer periods (median = 612 days; spring outmigrants = 104 days). Autumn outmigrants were 25% smaller than spring outmigrants at outmigration and 6% smaller on their return, and within both groups smaller/younger outmigrants spent longer away than larger/older outmigrants. Autumn outmigrants were more likely to return unsilvered as "slob" trout (84%) than spring outmigrants (31%), suggesting they make greater use of brackish habitats that might be safer, but less productive, than fully marine habitats. Nonetheless, both types also produced silvered "sea trout" (≥1+ sea-age), implying neither is locked into a single life-history strategy. The findings emphasise that autumn outmigrants and the transitional habitats that support their persistence should not be overlooked in salmonid management and conservation.

The opportunity for selection: A slippery concept in ecology and evolution

Natural selection can only occur if individuals differ in fitness. For this reason, the variance in relative fitness has been equated with the 'opportunity for selection' ( I ), which has a long, albeit somewhat controversial, history. In this paper we discuss the use/misuse of I and related metrics in evolutionary ecology. The opportunity is only realised if some fraction of I is caused by trait variation. Thus, I > 0 does not imply that selection is occurring, as sometimes erroneously assumed, because all fitness variation could be independent of phenotype. The selection intensity on any given trait cannot exceed I , but this upper limit will never be reached because (a) stochastic factors always affect fitness, and (b) there might be multiple traits under selection. The expected magnitude of the stochastic component of I is negatively correlated with mean fitness. Uncertainty in realised I is also larger when mean fitness or population/sample size are low. Variation in I across time or space thus can be dominated (or solely driven) by variation in the strength of demographic stochasticity. We illustrate these points using simulations and empirical data from a population study on great tits Parus major. Our analysis shows that the scope for fecundity selection in the great tits is substantially higher when using annual number of recruits as the fitness measure, rather than fledglings or eggs, even after adjusting for the dependence of I on mean fitness. This suggests nonrandom survival of juveniles across families between life stages. Indeed, previous work on this population has shown that offspring recruitment is often nonrandom with respect to clutch size and laying date of parents, for example. We conclude that one cannot make direct inferences about selection based on fitness data alone. However, examining variation in ∆ I F (the opportunity for fecundity selection adjusted for mean fitness) across life stages, years or environments can offer clues as to when/where fecundity selection might be strongest, which can be useful for research planning and experimental design.

Directional selection and the evolution of breeding date in birds, revisited: Hard selection and the evolution of plasticity

The mismatch between when individuals breed and when we think they should breed has been a long‐standing problem in evolutionary ecology. Price et al. is a classic theory paper in this field and is mainly cited for its most obvious result: if individuals with high nutritional condition breed early, then the advantage of breeding early may be overestimated when information on nutritional condition is absent. Price at al.'s less obvious result is that individuals, on average, are expected to breed later than the optimum. Here, we provide an explanation of their non‐intuitive result in terms of hard selection, and go on to show that neither of their results are expected to hold if the relationship between breeding date and nutrition is allowed to evolve. By introducing the assumption that the advantage of breeding early is greater for individuals in high nutritional condition, we show that their most cited result can be salvaged. However, individuals, on average, are expected to breed earlier than the optimum, not later. More generally, we also show that the hard selection mechanisms that underpin these results have major implications for the evolution of plasticity: when environmental heterogeneity becomes too great, plasticity is selected against, prohibiting the evolution of generalists.

Associations between metabolic traits and growth rate in brown trout (Salmo trutta) depend on thermal regime

Metabolism defines the energetic cost of life, yet we still know relatively little about why intraspecific variation in metabolic rate arises and persists. Spatio-temporal variation in selection potentially maintains differences, but relationships between metabolic traits (standard metabolic rate (SMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR), and aerobic scope) and fitness across contexts are unresolved. We show that associations between SMR, MMR, and growth rate (a key fitness-related trait) vary depending on the thermal regime (a potential selective agent) in offspring of wild-sampled brown trout from two populations reared for approximately 15 months in either a cool or warm (+1.8°C) regime. SMR was positively related to growth in the cool, but negatively related in the warm regime. The opposite patterns were found for MMR and growth associations (positive in warm, negative in the cool regime). Mean SMR, but not MMR, was lower in warm regimes within both populations (i.e. basal metabolic costs were reduced at higher temperatures), consistent with an adaptive acclimation response that optimizes growth. Metabolic phenotypes thus exhibited a thermally sensitive metabolic 'floor' and a less flexible metabolic 'ceiling'. Our findings suggest a role for growth-related fluctuating selection in shaping patterns of metabolic variation that is likely important in adapting to climate change.

Hyper- and Hypo-Osmoregulatory Performance of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) Smolts Infected With Pomphorhynchus tereticollis (Acanthocephala)

Migratory species must cope with different parasite communities in different environments, but little is known about the ecophysiological effects of parasites on migratory performance. Some species/strains of acanthocephalan parasites in the genus Pomphorhynchus use anadromous salmonids as preferred definitive hosts, perforating the intestines, destroying mucosa and inducing inflammation–all of which might affect osmoregulatory function during transition between freshwater and marine environments. We used genetic barcoding to identify acanthocephalans in the intestines of wild Irish Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) smolts as being the recently taxonomically resurrected species Pomphorhynchus tereticollis. We then investigated whether natural infection intensities of this parasite were associated with reduced osmoregulatory performance, as measured by plasma chloride concentrations, or potentially elevated stress, as measured by blood glucose, of hosts in freshwater or saltwater environments (24 or 72 h in ∼26PPT salt water, reflecting salinities of coastal waters through which smolts migrate). Although infection prevalence was high amongst sampled smolts, no associations were found within or across treatment groups between parasite abundance and plasma chloride concentrations or blood glucose levels. We found no intestinal perforations that would indicate P. tereticollis had recently vacated the intestines of smolts in either of the saltwater groups. Exploratory sampling in the 2 years preceding the experiment indicated that parasite prevalence and abundance are consistently high and comparable to the experimental individuals. Collectively, these results indicate that naturally occurring abundances of P. tereticollis do not reduce osmoregulatory function or affect blood glucose content in fresh water or within 72 h of entering coastal waters, although delayed pathologies affecting marine survival may occur. Future consideration of ecophysiological interactions between anadromous fish hosts and their parasites across different osmotic environments should provide general insights into coevolution between migratory hosts and their parasites.

Alternative migratory tactics in brown trout (Salmo trutta) are underpinned by divergent regulation of metabolic but not neurological genes

The occurrence of alternative morphs within populations is common, but the underlying molecular mechanisms remain poorly understood. Many animals, for example, exhibit facultative migration, where two or more alternative migratory tactics (AMTs) coexist within populations. In certain salmonid species, some individuals remain in natal rivers all their lives, while others (in particular, females) migrate to sea for a period of marine growth. Here, we performed transcriptional profiling ("RNA-seq") of the brain and liver of male and female brown trout to understand the genes and processes that differentiate between migratory and residency morphs (AMT-associated genes) and how they may differ in expression between the sexes. We found tissue-specific differences with a greater number of genes expressed differentially in the liver (n = 867 genes) compared with the brain (n = 10) between the morphs. Genes with increased expression in resident livers were enriched for Gene Ontology terms associated with metabolic processes, highlighting key molecular-genetic pathways underlying the energetic requirements associated with divergent migratory tactics. In contrast, smolt-biased genes were enriched for biological processes such as response to cytokines, suggestive of possible immune function differences between smolts and residents. Finally, we identified evidence of sex-biased gene expression for AMT-associated genes in the liver (n = 12) but not the brain. Collectively, our results provide insights into tissue-specific gene expression underlying the production of alternative life histories within and between the sexes, and point toward a key role for metabolic processes in the liver in mediating divergent physiological trajectories of migrants versus residents.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Evolution and Expression of the Immune System of a Facultatively Anadromous Salmonid

Vertebrates have evolved a complex immune system required for the identification of and coordinated response to harmful pathogens. Migratory species spend periods of their life-cycle in more than one environment, and their immune system consequently faces a greater diversity of pathogens residing in different environments. In facultatively anadromous salmonids, individuals may spend parts of their life-cycle in freshwater and marine environments. For species such as the brown trout Salmo trutta, sexes differ in their life-histories with females more likely to migrate to sea while males are more likely to stay and complete their life-cycle in their natal river. Salmonids have also undergone a lineage-specific whole genome duplication event, which may provide novel immune innovations but our current understanding of the differences in salmonid immune expression between the sexes is limited. We characterized the brown trout immune gene repertoire, identifying a number of canonical immune genes in non-salmonid teleosts to be duplicated in S. trutta, with genes involved in innate and adaptive immunity. Through genome-wide transcriptional profiling (“RNA-seq”) of male and female livers to investigate sex differences in gene expression amplitude and alternative splicing, we identified immune genes as being generally male-biased in expression. Our study provides important insights into the evolutionary consequences of whole genome duplication events on the salmonid immune gene repertoire and how the sexes differ in constitutive immune expression.

Metabolic traits in brown trout (Salmo trutta) vary in response to food restriction and intrinsic factors

Metabolic rates vary hugely within and between populations, yet we know relatively little about factors causing intraspecific variation. Since metabolic rate determines the energetic cost of life, uncovering these sources of variation is important to understand and forecast responses to environmental change. Moreover, few studies have examined factors causing intraspecific variation in metabolic flexibility. We explore how extrinsic environmental conditions and intrinsic factors contribute to variation in metabolic traits in brown trout, an iconic and polymorphic species that is threatened across much of its native range. We measured metabolic traits in offspring from two wild populations that naturally show life-history variation in migratory tactics (one anadromous, i.e. sea-migratory, one non-anadromous) that we reared under either optimal food or experimental conditions of long-term food restriction (lasting between 7 and 17 months). Both populations showed decreased standard metabolic rates (SMR-baseline energy requirements) under low food conditions. The anadromous population had higher maximum metabolic rate (MMR) than the non-anadromous population, and marginally higher SMR. The MMR difference was greater than SMR and consequently aerobic scope (AS) was higher in the anadromous population. MMR and AS were both higher in males than females. The anadromous population also had higher AS under low food compared to optimal food conditions, consistent with population-specific effects of food restriction on AS. Our results suggest different components of metabolic rate can vary in their response to environmental conditions, and according to intrinsic (population-background/sex) effects. Populations might further differ in their flexibility of metabolic traits, potentially due to intrinsic factors related to life history (e.g. migratory tactics). More comparisons of populations/individuals with divergent life histories will help to reveal this. Overall, our study suggests that incorporating an understanding of metabolic trait variation and flexibility and linking this to life history and demography will improve our ability to conserve populations experiencing global change.

Food and temperature stressors have opposing effects in determining flexible migration decisions in brown trout (Salmo trutta)

With rapid global change, organisms in natural systems are exposed to a multitude of stressors that likely co-occur, with uncertain impacts. We explored individual and cumulative effects of co-occurring environmental stressors on the striking, yet poorly understood, phenomenon of facultative migration. We reared offspring of a brown trout population that naturally demonstrates facultative anadromy (sea migration), under different environmental stressor treatments and measured life history responses in terms of migratory tactics and freshwater maturation rates. Juvenile fish were exposed to reduced food availability, temperatures elevated to 1.8°C above natural conditions or both treatments in combination over 18 months of experimental tank rearing. When considered in isolation, reduced food had negative effects on the size, mass and condition of fish across the experiment. We detected variable effects of warm temperatures (negative effects on size and mass, but positive effect on lipids). When combined with food restriction, temperature effects on these traits were less pronounced, implying antagonistic stressor effects on morphological traits. Stressors combined additively, but had opposing effects on life history tactics: migration increased and maturation rates decreased under low food conditions, whereas the opposite occurred in the warm temperature treatment. Not all fish had expressed maturation or migration tactics by the end of the study, and the frequency of these 'unassigned' fish was higher in food deprivation treatments, but lower in warm treatments. Fish showing migration tactics were smaller and in poorer condition than fish showing maturation tactics, but were similar in size to unassigned fish. We further detected effects of food restriction on hypo-osmoregulatory function of migrants that may influence the fitness benefits of the migratory tactic at sea. We also highlight that responses to multiple stressors may vary depending on the response considered. Collectively, our results indicate contrasting effects of environmental stressors on life history trajectories in a facultatively migratory species.

Telemetry and genetics reveal asymmetric dispersal of a lake-feeding salmonid between inflow and outflow spawning streams at a microgeographic scale

The degree of natal philopatry relative to natal dispersal in animal populations has important demographic and genetic consequences and often varies substantially within species. In salmonid fishes, lakes have been shown to have a strong influence on dispersal and gene flow within catchments; for example, populations spawning in inflow streams are often reproductively isolated and genetically distinct from those spawning in relatively distant outflow streams. Less is known, however, regarding the level of philopatry and genetic differentiation occurring at microgeographic scales, for example, where inflow and outflow streams are separated by very small expanses of lake habitat. Here, we investigated the interplay between genetic differentiation and fine-scale spawning movements of brown trout between their lake-feeding habitat and two spawning streams (one inflow, one outflow, separated by <100 m of lake habitat). Most (69.2%) of the lake-tagged trout subsequently detected during the spawning period were recorded in just one of the two streams, consistent with natal fidelity, while the remainder were detected in both streams, creating an opportunity for these individuals to spawn in both natal and non-natal streams. The latter behavior was supported by genetic sibship analysis, which revealed several half-sibling dyads containing one individual that was sampled as a fry in the outflow and another that was sampled as fry in the inflow. Genetic clustering analyses in conjunction with telemetry data suggested that asymmetrical dispersal patterns were occurring, with natal fidelity being more common among individuals originating from the outflow than the inflow stream. This was corroborated by Bayesian analysis of gene flow, which indicated significantly higher rates of gene flow from the inflow into the outflow than vice versa. Collectively, these results reveal how a combination of telemetry and genetics can identify distinct reproductive behaviors and associated asymmetries in natal dispersal that produce subtle, but nonetheless biologically relevant, population structuring at microgeographic scales.

Anadromy, potamodromy and residency in brown trout Salmo trutta: the role of genes and the environment

Brown trout Salmo trutta is endemic to Europe, western Asia and north-western Africa; it is a prominent member of freshwater and coastal marine fish faunas. The species shows two resident (river-resident, lake-resident) and three main facultative migratory life histories (downstream-upstream within a river system, fluvial-adfluvial potamodromous; to and from a lake, lacustrine-adfluvial (inlet) or allacustrine (outlet) potamodromous; to and from the sea, anadromous). River-residency v. migration is a balance between enhanced feeding and thus growth advantages of migration to a particular habitat v. the costs of potentially greater mortality and energy expenditure. Fluvial-adfluvial migration usually has less feeding improvement, but less mortality risk, than lacustrine-adfluvial or allacustrine and anadromous, but the latter vary among catchments as to which is favoured. Indirect evidence suggests that around 50% of the variability in S. trutta migration v. residency, among individuals within a population, is due to genetic variance. This dichotomous decision can best be explained by the threshold-trait model of quantitative genetics. Thus, an individual's physiological condition (e.g., energy status) as regulated by environmental factors, genes and non-genetic parental effects, acts as the cue. The magnitude of this cue relative to a genetically predetermined individual threshold, governs whether it will migrate or sexually mature as a river-resident. This decision threshold occurs early in life and, if the choice is to migrate, a second threshold probably follows determining the age and timing of migration. Migration destination (mainstem river, lake, or sea) also appears to be genetically programmed. Decisions to migrate and ultimate destination result in a number of subsequent consequential changes such as parr-smolt transformation, sexual maturity and return migration. Strong associations with one or a few genes have been found for most aspects of the migratory syndrome and indirect evidence supports genetic involvement in all parts. Thus, migratory and resident life histories potentially evolve as a result of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes, which alter relative survival and reproduction. Knowledge of genetic determinants of the various components of migration in S. trutta lags substantially behind that of Oncorhynchus mykiss and other salmonines. Identification of genetic markers linked to migration components and especially to the migration-residency decision, is a prerequisite for facilitating detailed empirical studies. In order to predict effectively, through modelling, the effects of environmental changes, quantification of the relative fitness of different migratory traits and of their heritabilities, across a range of environmental conditions, is also urgently required in the face of the increasing pace of such changes.

The portfolio effect cushions mosquito populations and malaria transmission against vector control interventions

BACKGROUND

Portfolio effects were first described as a basis for mitigating against financial risk by diversifying investments. Distributing investment across several different assets can stabilize returns and reduce risks by statistical averaging of individual asset dynamics that often correlate weakly or negatively with each other. The same simple probability theory is equally applicable to complex ecosystems, in which biological and environmental diversity stabilizes ecosystems against natural and human-mediated perturbations. Given the fundamental limitations to how well the full complexity of ecosystem dynamics can be understood or anticipated, the portfolio effect concept provides a simple framework for more critical data interpretation and pro-active conservation management. Applied to conservation ecology purposes, the portfolio effect concept informs management strategies emphasizing identification and maintenance of key ecological processes that generate complexity, diversity and resilience against inevitable, often unpredictable perturbations.

IMPLICATIONS

Applied to the reciprocal goal of eliminating the least valued elements of global biodiversity, specifically lethal malaria parasites and their vector mosquitoes, simply understanding the portfolio effect concept informs more cautious interpretation of surveillance data and simulation model predictions. Malaria transmission mediated by guilds of multiple vectors in complex landscapes, with highly variable climatic and meteorological conditions, as well as changing patterns of land use and other human behaviours, will systematically tend to be more resilient to attack with vector control than it appears based on even the highest quality surveillance data or predictive models.

CONCLUSION

Malaria vector control programmes may need to be more ambitious, interpret their short-to-medium term assessments of intervention impact more cautiously, and manage stakeholder expectations more conservatively than has often been the case thus far.

Maternal Effects in a Wild Songbird Are Environmentally Plastic but Only Marginally Alter the Rate of Adaptation

Despite ample evidence for the presence of maternal effects (MEs) in a variety of traits and strong theoretical indications for their evolutionary consequences, empirical evidence to what extent MEs can influence evolutionary responses to selection remains ambiguous. We tested the degree to which MEs can alter the rate of adaptation of a key life-history trait, clutch size, using an individual-based model approach parameterized with experimental data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We modeled two types of MEs: (i) an environmentally plastic ME, in which the relationship between maternal and offspring clutch size depended on the maternal environment via offspring condition, and (ii) a fixed ME, in which this relationship was constant. Although both types of ME affected the rate of adaptation following an abrupt environmental shift, the overall effects were small. We conclude that evolutionary consequences of MEs are modest at best in our study system, at least for the trait and the particular type of ME we considered here. A closer link between theoretical and empirical work on MEs would hence be useful to obtain accurate predictions about the evolutionary consequences of MEs more generally.

Environmental and genetic determinants of innovativeness in a natural population of birds

Much of the evidence for the idea that individuals differ in their propensity to innovate and solve new problems has come from studies on captive primates. Increasingly, behavioural ecologists are studying innovativeness in wild populations, and uncovering links with functional behaviour and fitness-related traits. The relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving this variation, however, remains unknown. Here, we present the results of the first large-scale study to examine a range of causal factors underlying innovative problem-solving performance (PSP) among 831 great tits (Parus major) temporarily taken into captivity. Analyses show that PSP in this population: (i) was linked to a variety of individual factors, including age, personality and natal origin (immigrant or local-born); (ii) was influenced by natal environment, because individuals had a lower PSP when born in poor-quality habitat, or where local population density was high, leading to cohort effects. Links with many of the individual and environmental factors were present only in some years. In addition, PSP (iii) had little or no measurable heritability, as estimated by a Bayesian animal model; and (iv) was not influenced by maternal effects. Despite previous reports of links between PSP and a range of functional traits in this population, the analyses here suggest that innovativeness had weak if any evolutionary potential. Instead most individual variation was caused by phenotypic plasticity driven by links with other behavioural traits and by environmentally mediated developmental stress. Heritability estimates are population, time and context specific, however, and more studies are needed to determine the generality of these effects. Our results shed light on the causes of innovativeness within populations, and add to the debate on the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving phenotypic variation within populations.

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.

The signature of fine scale local adaptation in Atlantic salmon revealed from common garden experiments in nature

Understanding the extent, scale and genetic basis of local adaptation (LA) is important for conservation and management. Its relevance in salmonids at microgeographic scales, where dispersal (and hence potential gene flow) can be substantial, has however been questioned. Here, we compare the fitness of communally reared offspring of local and foreign Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from adjacent Irish rivers and reciprocal F₁ hybrid crosses between them, in the wild ‘home’ environment of the local population. Experimental groups did not differ in wild smolt output but a catastrophic flood event may have limited our ability to detect freshwater performance differences, which were evident in a previous study. Foreign parr exhibited higher, and hybrids intermediate, emigration rates from the natal stream relative to local parr, consistent with genetically based behavioural differences. Adult return rates were lower for the foreign compared to the local group. Overall lifetime success of foreigners and hybrids relative to locals was estimated at 31% and 40% (mean of both hybrid groups), respectively. The results imply a genetic basis to fitness differences among populations separated by only 50 km, driven largely by variation in smolt to adult return rates. Hence even if supplementary stocking programs obtain broodstock from neighbouring rivers, the risk of extrinsic outbreeding depression may be high.

Quantifying heritable variation in fitness-related traits of wild, farmed and hybrid Atlantic salmon families in a wild river environment

Farmed fish are typically genetically different from wild conspecifics. Escapees from fish farms may contribute one-way gene flow from farm to wild gene pools, which can depress population productivity, dilute local adaptations and disrupt coadapted gene complexes. Here, we reanalyse data from two experiments (McGinnity et al., 1997, 2003) where performance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) progeny originating from experimental crosses between farm and wild parents (in three different cohorts) were measured in a natural stream under common garden conditions. Previous published analyses focussed on group-level differences but did not account for pedigree structure, as we do here using modern mixed-effect models. Offspring with one or two farm parents exhibited poorer survival in their first and second year of life compared with those with two wild parents and these group-level inferences were robust to excluding outlier families. Variation in performance among farm, hybrid and wild families was generally similar in magnitude. Farm offspring were generally larger at all life stages examined than wild offspring, but the differences were moderate (5-20%) and similar in magnitude in the wild versus hatchery environments. Quantitative genetic analyses conducted using a Bayesian framework revealed moderate heritability in juvenile fork length and mass and positive genetic correlations (>0.85) between these morphological traits. Our study confirms (using more rigorous statistical techniques) previous studies showing that offspring of wild fish invariably have higher fitness and contributes fresh insights into family-level variation in performance of farm, wild and hybrid Atlantic salmon families in the wild. It also adds to a small, but growing, number of studies that estimate key evolutionary parameters in wild salmonid populations. Such information is vital in modelling the impacts of introgression by escaped farm salmon.

Parasitism in early life: environmental conditions shape within-brood variation in responses to infection

Parasites play key ecological and evolutionary roles through the costs they impose on their host. In wild populations, the effect of parasitism is likely to vary considerably with environmental conditions, which may affect the availability of resources to hosts for defense. However, the interaction between parasitism and prevailing conditions is rarely quantified. In addition to environmental variation acting on hosts, individuals are likely to vary in their response to parasitism, and the combined effect of both may increase heterogeneity in host responses. Offspring hierarchies, established by parents in response to uncertain rearing conditions, may be an important source of variation between individuals. Here, we use experimental antiparasite treatment across 5 years of variable conditions to test how annual population productivity (a proxy for environmental conditions) and parasitism interact to affect growth and survival of different brood members in juvenile European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis). In control broods, last-hatched chicks had more plastic growth rates, growing faster in more productive years. Older siblings grew at a similar rate in all years. Treatment removed the effect of environment on last-hatched chicks, such that all siblings in treated broods grew at a similar rate across environmental conditions. There were no differences in nematode burden between years or siblings, suggesting that variation in responses arose from intrinsic differences between chicks. Whole-brood growth rate was not affected by treatment, indicating that within-brood differences were driven by a change in resource allocation between siblings rather than a change in overall parental provisioning. We show that gastrointestinal parasites can be a key component of offspring's developmental environment. Our results also demonstrate the value of considering prevailing conditions for our understanding of parasite effects on host life-history traits. Establishing how environmental conditions shape responses to parasitism is important as environmental variability is predicted to increase.

Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental change' beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even 'mild' rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested.

Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

Broad-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by climate change-induced phenological mismatch, using almost four decades of individual-level life-history data from a great tit population. In this population, warmer springs have generated a mismatch between the annual breeding time and the seasonal food peak, intensifying directional selection for earlier laying dates. Interannual variation in population mismatch has not, however, affected population growth. We demonstrated a mechanism contributing to this uncoupling, whereby fitness losses associated with mismatch are counteracted by fitness gains due to relaxed competition. These findings imply that natural populations may be able to tolerate considerable maladaptation driven by shifting climatic conditions without undergoing immediate declines.

Timing in a fluctuating environment: environmental variability and asymmetric fitness curves can lead to adaptively mismatched avian reproduction

Adaptation in dynamic environments depends on the grain, magnitude and predictability of ecological fluctuations experienced within and across generations. Phenotypic plasticity is a well-studied mechanism in this regard, yet the potentially complex effects of stochastic environmental variation on optimal mean trait values are often overlooked. Using an optimality model inspired by timing of reproduction in great tits, we show that temporal variation affects not only optimal reaction norm slope, but also elevation. With increased environmental variation and an asymmetric relationship between fitness and breeding date, optimal timing shifts away from the side of the fitness curve with the steepest decline. In a relatively constant environment, the timing of the birds is matched with the seasonal food peak, but they become adaptively mismatched in environments with temporal variation in temperature whenever the fitness curve is asymmetric. Various processes affecting the survival of offspring and parents influence this asymmetry, which collectively determine the 'safest' strategy, i.e. whether females should breed before, on, or after the food peak in a variable environment. As climate change might affect the (co)variance of environmental variables as well as their averages, risk aversion may influence how species should shift their seasonal timing in a warming world.

Impacts of parasites in early life: contrasting effects on juvenile growth for different family members

Parasitism experienced early in ontogeny can have a major impact on host growth, development and future fitness, but whether siblings are affected equally by parasitism is poorly understood. In birds, hatching asynchrony induced by hormonal or behavioural mechanisms largely under parental control might predispose young to respond to infection in different ways. Here we show that parasites can have different consequences for offspring depending on their position in the family hierarchy. We experimentally treated European Shag (Phalacrocorax aristoteli) nestlings with the broad-spectrum anti-parasite drug ivermectin and compared their growth rates with nestlings from control broods. Average growth rates measured over the period of linear growth (10 days to 30 days of age) and survival did not differ for nestlings from treated and control broods. However, when considering individuals within broods, parasite treatment reversed the patterns of growth for individual family members: last-hatched nestlings grew significantly slower than their siblings in control nests but grew faster in treated nests. This was at the expense of their earlier-hatched brood-mates, who showed an overall growth rate reduction relative to last-hatched nestlings in treated nests. These results highlight the importance of exploring individual variation in the costs of infection and suggest that parasites could be a key factor modulating within-family dynamics, sibling competition and developmental trajectories from an early age.

Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.

Interacting effects of phenotypic plasticity and evolution on population persistence in a changing climate

Climate change affects individual organisms by altering development, physiology, behavior, and fitness, and populations by altering genetic and phenotypic composition, vital rates, and dynamics. We sought to clarify how selection, phenotypic plasticity, and demography are linked in the context of climate change. On the basis of theory and results of recent empirical studies of plants and animals, we believe the ecological and evolutionary issues relevant to population persistence as climate changes are the rate, type, magnitude, and spatial pattern of climate-induced abiotic and biotic change; generation time and life history of the organism; extent and type of phenotypic plasticity; amount and distribution of adaptive genetic variation across space and time; dispersal potential; and size and connectivity of subpopulations. An understanding of limits to plasticity and evolutionary potential across traits, populations, and species and feedbacks between adaptive and demographic responses is lacking. Integrated knowledge of coupled ecological and evolutionary mechanisms will increase understanding of the resilience and probabilities of persistence of populations and species.

Lake-specific variation in growth, migration timing and survival of juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka: separating environmental from genetic influences

Time series on juvenile life-history traits obtained from sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka were analysed to assess lake-specific environmental influences on juvenile migration timing, size and survival of fish from a common gene pool. Every year for the past two decades, O. nerka have been spawned at a hatchery facility, and the progeny released into two lakes that differ in average summer temperatures, limnological attributes and growth opportunities. Juveniles reared in the warmer, more productive Crosswind Lake were larger and heavier as smolts compared to those from the cooler, less productive Summit Lake and had higher in-lake and subsequent marine survival. Crosswind Lake smolts migrated from the lake to sea slightly earlier in the season but the migration timing distributions overlapped considerably across years. Fry stocking density had a negative effect on smolt length for both lakes, and a negative effect on in-lake survival in Summit Lake. Taken together, the results revealed a strong effect of lake-rearing environment on the expression of life-history variation in O. nerka. The stocking of these lakes each year with juveniles from a single mixed-source population provided a large-scale reverse common-garden experiment, where the same gene pool was exposed to different environments, rather than the different gene pools in the same environment approach typical of evolutionary ecology studies. Other researchers are encouraged to seek and exploit similar serendipitous situations, which might allow environmental and genetic influences on ecologically important traits to be distinguished in natural or semi-natural settings.

Phenotypic plasticity and population viability: the importance of environmental predictability

Phenotypic plasticity plays a key role in modulating how environmental variation influences population dynamics, but we have only rudimentary understanding of how plasticity interacts with the magnitude and predictability of environmental variation to affect population dynamics and persistence. We developed a stochastic individual-based model, in which phenotypes could respond to a temporally fluctuating environmental cue and fitness depended on the match between the phenotype and a randomly fluctuating trait optimum, to assess the absolute fitness and population dynamic consequences of plasticity under different levels of environmental stochasticity and cue reliability. When cue and optimum were tightly correlated, plasticity buffered absolute fitness from environmental variability, and population size remained high and relatively invariant. In contrast, when this correlation weakened and environmental variability was high, strong plasticity reduced population size, and populations with excessively strong plasticity had substantially greater extinction probability. Given that environments might become more variable and unpredictable in the future owing to anthropogenic influences, reaction norms that evolved under historic selective regimes could imperil populations in novel or changing environmental contexts. We suggest that demographic models (e.g. population viability analyses) would benefit from a more explicit consideration of how phenotypic plasticity influences population responses to environmental change.

Timing is everything: flexible phenology and shifting selection in a colonial seabird

1. In order to reproduce successfully in a temporally varying environment, iteroparous animals must exhibit considerable behavioural flexibility across their lifetimes. By adjusting timing of breeding each year, parents can ensure optimal overlap between the energy intensive period of offspring production and the seasonal peak in favourable environmental conditions, thereby increasing their chances of successfully rearing young. 2. Few studies investigate variation among individuals in how they respond to fluctuating conditions, or how selection acts on these individual differences, but this information is essential for understanding how populations will cope with rapid environmental change. 3. We explored inter-annual trends in breeding time and individual responses to environmental variability in common guillemots Uria aalge, an important marine top predator in the highly variable California Current System. Complex, nonlinear relationships between phenology and oceanic and climate variables were found at the population level. Using a novel application of a statistical technique called random regression, we showed that individual females responded in a nonlinear fashion to environmental variability, and that reaction norm shape differed among females. 4. The pattern and strength of selection varied substantially over a 34-year period, but in general, earlier laying was favoured. Females deviating significantly from the population mean laying date each year also suffered reduced breeding success, with the strength of nonlinear selection varying in relation to environmental conditions. 5. We discuss our results in the wider context of an emerging literature on the evolutionary ecology of individual-level plasticity in the wild. Better understanding of how species-specific factors and local habitat features affect the timing and success of breeding will improve our ability to predict how populations will respond to climate change.

Responding to environmental change: plastic responses vary little in a synchronous breeder

The impact of environmental change on animal populations is strongly influenced by the ability of individuals to plastically adjust key life-history events. There is therefore considerable interest in establishing the degree of plasticity in traits and how selection acts on plasticity in natural populations. Breeding time is a key life-history trait that affects fitness and recent studies have found that females vary significantly in their breeding time-environment relationships, with selection often favouring individuals exhibiting stronger plastic responses. In contrast, here, we show that although breeding time in the common guillemot, Uria aalge, is highly plastic at the population level in response to a large-scale environmental cue (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), there is very little between-individual variation-most individuals respond to this climate cue very similarly. We demonstrate strong stabilizing selection against individuals who deviate from the average population-level response to NAO. This species differs significantly from those previously studied in being a colonial breeder, in which reproductive synchrony has a substantial impact on fitness; we suggest that counter selection imposed by a need for synchrony could limit individuals in their response and potential for directional selection to act. This demonstrates the importance of considering the relative costs and benefits of highly plastic responses in assessing the likely response of a population to the environmental change.

Detection of benzo(a)pyrene diol epoxide-DNA adducts in sperm of men exposed to cigarette smoke

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the adducts formed when benzo(a)pyrene, a diol epoxide derivative, binds covalently to DNA (BPDE-DNA adducts) are detectable in the sperm of men who smoke cigarettes.

DESIGN

Prospective study.

SETTING

The Toronto Hospital IVF-ET program.

PATIENT(S)

Twenty-three patients with normal seminal parameters: 11 smokers (20.6 +/- 0.7 cigarettes per day) and 12 nonsmokers.

INTERVENTION(S)

Semen samples obtained by masturbation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Seminal plasma samples were assessed for cotinine by RIA. Sperm were treated with dithiothreitol to release disulfide bonds and allow for DNA binding, then exposed to an anti-BPDE monoclonal antibody, a biotinylated antibody, and streptavidin-conjugated peroxidase. Staining intensity scores, determined in 100 cells per individual, were correlated with seminal plasma cotinine levels, a marker of smoking.

RESULT(S)

Cotinine levels correlated highly with the number of cigarettes smoked per day. Mean cotinine levels and mean staining intensity scores were higher in smokers than in nonsmokers. Staining intensity correlated highly with cotinine levels.

CONCLUSION(S)

We demonstrated, for the first time, that BPDE-DNA adducts in sperm cells are increased by smoking; we also detected comparatively high levels in nonsmokers, which indicates that environmental exposure also is substantial. The formation of adducts in spermatozoa is a potential source of transmissible prezygotic DNA damage.

Detection of benzo[a]pyrene diol epoxide-DNA adducts in embryos from smoking couples: evidence for transmission by spermatozoa

Tobacco smoking is deleterious to reproduction. Benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) is a potent carcinogen in cigarette smoke. Its reactive metabolite induces DNA-adducts, which can cause mutations. We investigated whether B[a]P diol epoxide (BPDE) DNA adducts are detectable in preimplantation embryos in relation to parental smoking. A total of 17 couples were classified by their smoking habits: (i) both partners smoke; (ii) wife non-smoker, husband smokes; and (iii) both partners were non-smokers. Their 27 embryos were exposed to an anti-BPDE monoclonal antibody that recognizes BPDE-DNA adducts. Immunostaining was assessed in each embryo and an intensity score was calculated for embryos in each smoking group. The proportion of blastomeres which stained was higher for embryos of smokers than for non-smokers (0.723 versus 0.310). The mean intensity score was also higher for embryos of smokers (1.40+/-0.28) than for non-smokers (0.38+/-0.14; P = 0.015), but was similar for both types of smoking couples. The mean intensity score was positively correlated with the number of cigarettes smoked by fathers (P = 0.02). Increased mean immunostaining in embryos from smokers, relative to non-smokers, indicates a relationship with parental smoking. The similar levels of immunostaining in embryos from both types of smoking couples suggest that transmission of modified DNA is mainly through spermatozoa. We confirmed paternal transmission of modified DNA by detection of DNA adducts in spermatozoa of a smoker father and his embryo.

Interovarian differences in levels of cotinine, a major metabolite of nicotine, in women undergoing IVF who are exposed to cigarette smoke

PURPOSE

Our purpose was to determine whether there is variation in levels of follicular fluid (FF) cotinine between the two ovaries of women undergoing IVF-ET who are exposed to cigarette smoke.

METHODS

In 61 women, there were two to four determinations of FF continine levels for each of two follicles, one from each ovary. For each woman a t test for significant difference between the means of both ovaries was done to test for interovarian variation.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven nonsmokers, 8 passive smokers, and 16 active smokers differed greatly (P < 0.0001) in mean FF cotinine levels: 13.0, 91.1, and 420.3 ng/ml, respectively. Fourteen women had significant differences, at the P = 0.025 level or below, between their two ovaries. Five of them had differences significant at the 0.001 level. Even so, the correlation between the cotinine levels of the two ovaries was high.

CONCLUSIONS

Cotinine uptake between the two ovaries of a woman may differ approximately one-fourth of the time. In spite of these differences, the overall correlation between ovaries is high. The clear distinction in levels of FF cotinine among active, passive, and nonsmokers demonstrates the reliability of FF cotinine testing. Detection of cotinine in a large proportion of nonsmokers shows how pervasive nicotine is in the environment.

Effects of cigarette smoking and age on the maturation of human oocytes

We investigated whether cigarette smoking, measured by follicular fluid concentrations of cotinine (a major metabolite of nicotine), affects the maturity of oocytes from women undergoing in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and embryo transfer. In 234 women, follicular fluid samples were assessed for cotinine and their 2020 oocytes were assessed for maturity stage. Data on individual proportions of oocytes which were mature (OM) and were fertilized (OF) were analysed by regression in relation to age and follicular fluid cotinine. OF gave an independent assessment of oocyte maturity. Both age and follicular fluid cotinine entered the OM and OF regressions and were significant. The age-adjusted regression coefficients for log cotinine were positive; greater cotinine concentrations usually accompanied greater OM and OF. The cotinine effect on OM was positive in younger women, but it became negative (decreased OM with increasing cotinine concentrations) in older women (> or = 40 years). We further found in older women an average reduction of approximately 50% in the number of mature oocytes; this reduced number was lower than the number of embryos usually transferred. Smoking can reduce the number of mature oocytes even further, therefore risking a negative IVF-embryo transfer outcome. This may be the reason why the negative effects of smoking become clinically detectable in older women.

Cotinine, a major metabolite of nicotine, is detectable in follicular fluids of passive smokers in in vitro fertilization therapy

OBJECTIVE

To assess cotinine, a metabolite of nicotine, in follicular fluids (FF) of women who smoke either actively or passively or not all.

DESIGN

Controlled clinical study.

SETTING

Infertile patients in a hospital IVF-ET program.

PATIENTS

One hundred eleven women classified by smoking habits: active smokers (n = 44), passive smokers (n = 17), or nonsmokers (n = 50).

INTERVENTIONS

Ovarian hyperstimulation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Cotinine levels in FF.

RESULTS

A strong correlation between number of cigarettes smoked and levels of FF cotinine was found. The levels of FF cotinine were: active smokers 710.4 +/- 128.2, passive smokers 76.3 +/- 56.5, and nonsmokers 4.2 +/- 2.0 ng/mL (mean +/- SEM). The level in active smokers was significantly greater than in other groups. The levels of FF cotinine in passive smokers differed significantly from nonsmokers. Eighty-four percent of nonsmokers actually were exposed to nicotine, with a mean value of 5.0 ng/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

Cotinine was detectable in a dose-dependent manner in active and passive smokers. It was detected in all active smokers and in a majority of passive smokers and self-reported nonsmokers. A strong interindividual variation suggests differences in metabolism and smoking habits. Follicular fluid cotinine assessments are useful for infertility studies.

The correlation between reaction time and the ponderal index

Reaction time (RT) and movement time (MT), and intraindividual variability in RT and MT, measured in elementary cognitive tasks at three levels of complexity of information processing, administered to 213 college males, show nonsignificant correlations with body build, specifically the ponderal index, hence not replicating the results of a study by Smith and Boyarsky (1943).

Decline in cognitive performance in aging twins. Heritability and biobehavioral predictors from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Twin Study

The present study examined the contribution of genetic factors to Digit Symbol performance and its decline in 23 monozygotic twin pairs (mean age at examination 1, 57.1 years) and 21 dizygotic twin pairs (mean age at examination 1, 56.3 years). These men were assessed twice during a 5-year interval as part of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Twin Study. The prevalence of decline (a change, greater than 1 SD) during the 5-year interval was 35% and 39% for monozygotic and dizygotic twins, respectively. The pairwise concordance for decline was 45% in monozygotic and 8% in dizygotic twin pairs, suggesting a possible role for genetic factors in the decline in Digit Symbol performance in this sample. A comparison of baseline biologic and behavioral characteristics within monozygotic twin pairs discordant for decline in Digit Symbol performance revealed that decliners had higher initial systolic blood pressures, lower serum cholesterol levels, and lower heart rates than nondecliners.