Spatial density estimates of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the French Jura and Vosges Mountains

Shining a light on elusive lynx: Density estimation of three Eurasian lynx populations in Ukraine and Belarus

The Eurasian lynx is a large carnivore widely distributed across Eurasia. However, our understanding of population status is heterogeneous across their range, with some populations isolated that are at risk of reduced genetic variation and a complete lack of information about others. In many European countries, Eurasian lynx are monitored through demographic studies crucial for their conservation and management. Even so, there are only rough and fragmented population assessments from Ukraine and Belarus, despite strict protection in both countries and their importance for lynx connectivity across Europe. We monitored lynx from October 2020 to March 2021 and used camera trapping in combination with spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methods in a Bayesian framework to provide the first SCR density estimation of three lynx populations across Ukraine and Belarus, including the Ukrainian Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, southern Belarus and the Ukrainian Carpathians. Our density estimates varied within our study areas ranging from 0.45 to 1.54 individuals/100 km2. This work provides a substantial scientific component to the overall understanding of lynx conservation for a region where only broad information is available and opens the doors for further large-scale monitoring and trend assessments. The crucial information we provide can greatly enhance the range-wide assessments of the status of this protected species. We also discuss the implications for Eurasian lynx conservation, despite the geopolitical realities impacting species monitoring in the region. Our work serves as a baseline, not only for future conservation interventions but also to evaluate the effects of disturbance and threats to these protected populations.

Assessing Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) Demographics to Monitor Wildlife Diseases: A Spotlight on Echinococcus multilocularis

The assessment of red fox population density is considered relevant to the surveillance of zoonotic agents vectored by this species. However, density is difficult to estimate reliably, since the ecological plasticity and elusive behavior of this carnivore hinder classic methods of inference. In this study, red fox population density was estimated using a non-invasive molecular spatial capture-recapture (SCR) approach in two study areas: one in a known hotspot of the zoonotic cestode Echinococcus multilocularis, and another naïve to the parasite. Parasitological investigations on collected samples confirmed the presence of the parasite exclusively in the former area; the SCR results indicated a higher fox population density in the control area than in the hotspot, suggesting either that the relationship between fox density and parasite prevalence is not linear and/or the existence of other latent factors supporting the parasitic cycle in the known focus. In addition, fox spotlight count data for the two study areas were used to estimate the index of kilometric abundance (IKA). Although this method is cheaper and less time-consuming than SCR, IKA values were the highest in the areas with the lower molecular SCR density estimates, confirming that IKA should be regarded as a relative index only.

Eurasian lynx density and habitat use in one of Europe’s strongholds, the Romanian Carpathians

The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) faces population declines in the western part of its range, and its ecological requirements are poorly understood in the eastern part of its range. The Romanian Carpathians harbor an intact large carnivore community, in which lynx co-occur with bears (Ursus arctos), wolves (Canis lupus), and humans (Homo sapiens), with which they potentially compete for ungulate prey. We provide a science-based estimate of lynx density and habitat use, combining non-invasive monitoring techniques (camera trapping) with spatially explicit capture-recapture models (SECR) in the Southern Carpathians of Romania. We sampled 59 and 76 trap stations during two monitoring sessions (winter and autumn), identified at least 30 individuals, from which we reconstructed encounter histories for 23 individuals. SECR modeling resulted in similar density estimates between winter and autumn (1.6 ± 0.39 SE and 1.7 ± 0.38 SE lynx/100 km2, respectively), but the cumulative number of lynx detected reached the asymptote faster during autumn, suggesting that monitoring prior to the mating season is preferable. Density varied within and across sessions with topography (slope), percent forest cover, and landscape heterogeneity (i.e., agricultural mosaic). Density hotspots shifted between low-altitude agricultural mosaic during winter and more rugged, mid-altitude forest stands during autumn. Estimated densities of lynx in the Romanian Carpathians are higher than those reported in the Alps or Slovak Carpathians, highlighting the importance of this population as a source both for natural recolonization and recent reintroduction programs. When used in an SECR framework, camera trapping is an efficient method for assessing spatial and temporal variation in lynx population density in the remote Romanian Carpathians. We recommend this methodology for improving lynx population estimates and to monitor lynx population trends nationwide.

Demography of a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) population within a strictly protected area in Central Europe

Large carnivores promote crucial ecosystem processes but are increasingly threatened by human persecution and habitat destruction. Successful conservation of this guild requires information on long-term population dynamics obtained through demographic surveys. We used camera traps to monitor Eurasian lynx between 2009 and 2018 in a strictly protected area in the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem, located in the core of the distribution of the Bohemian-Bavarian-Austrian lynx population. Thereby, we estimated sex-specific demographic parameters using spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models. Over 48,677 trap nights, we detected 65 unique lynx individuals. Density increased from 0.69 to 1.33 and from 1.09 to 2.35 individuals/100 km2 for open and closed population SCR models, respectively, with corresponding positive population growth rates (mean = 1.06). Estimated yearly sex-specific survival probabilities for the entire monitoring period were high (females 82%, males 90%) and per capita recruitment rate was low (females 12%, males 9%), indicating a low yearly population turnover. We ascertained an average number of recruits of 1.97 and a generation time of 2.64 years when considering resident reproducing females. We confirmed that reproduction in the study area took place successfully every year. Despite the overall increase in local lynx densities, the number of detected family groups remained constant throughout the study period. These results indicated that the strictly protected study area acts as a source for the multi-use landscapes in its surroundings. In this first open population SCR study on lynx, we provide sex-specific demographic parameters that are fundamental information for lynx management in the study area as well as in similar contexts Europe-wide.

Multi-seasonal systematic camera-trapping reveals fluctuating densities and high turnover rates of Carpathian lynx on the western edge of its native range

Camera-trapping and capture-recapture models are the most widely used tools for estimating densities of wild felids that have unique coat patterns, such as Eurasian lynx. However, studies dealing with this species are predominantly on a short-term basis and our knowledge of temporal trends and population persistence is still scarce. By using systematic camera-trapping and spatial capture-recapture models, we estimated lynx densities and evaluated density fluctuations, apparent survival, transition rate and individual's turnover during five consecutive seasons at three different sites situated in the Czech-Slovak-Polish borderland at the periphery of the Western Carpathians. Our density estimates vary between 0.26 and 1.85 lynx/100 km² suitable habitat and represent the lowest and the highest lynx densities reported from the Carpathians. We recorded 1.5-4.1-fold changes in asynchronous fluctuated densities among all study sites and seasons. Furthermore, we detected high individual's turnover (on average 46.3 ± 8.06% in all independent lynx and 37.6 ± 4.22% in adults) as well as low persistence of adults (only 3 out of 29 individuals detected in all seasons). The overall apparent survival rate was 0.63 ± 0.055 and overall transition rate between sites was 0.03 ± 0.019. Transition rate of males was significantly higher than in females, suggesting male-biased dispersal and female philopatry. Fluctuating densities and high turnover rates, in combination with documented lynx mortality, indicate that the population in our region faces several human-induced mortalities, such as poaching or lynx-vehicle collisions. These factors might restrict population growth and limit the dispersion of lynx to other subsequent areas, thus undermining the favourable conservation status of the Carpathian population. Moreover, our study demonstrates that long-term camera-trapping surveys are needed for evaluation of population trends and for reliable estimates of demographic parameters of wild territorial felids, and can be further used for establishing successful management and conservation measures.