Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

A circumpolar study unveils a positive non-linear effect of temperature on arctic arthropod availability that may reduce the risk of warming-induced trophic mismatch for breeding shorebirds

Seasonally abundant arthropods are a crucial food source for many migratory birds that breed in the Arctic. In cold environments, the growth and emergence of arthropods are particularly tied to temperature. Thus, the phenology of arthropods is anticipated to undergo a rapid change in response to a warming climate, potentially leading to a trophic mismatch between migratory insectivorous birds and their prey. Using data from 19 sites spanning a wide temperature gradient from the Subarctic to the High Arctic, we investigated the effects of temperature on the phenology and biomass of arthropods available to shorebirds during their short breeding season at high latitudes. We hypothesized that prolonged exposure to warmer summer temperatures would generate earlier peaks in arthropod biomass, as well as higher peak and seasonal biomass. Across the temperature gradient encompassed by our study sites (>10°C in average summer temperatures), we found a 3-day shift in average peak date for every increment of 80 cumulative thawing degree-days. Interestingly, we found a linear relationship between temperature and arthropod biomass only below temperature thresholds. Higher temperatures were associated with higher peak and seasonal biomass below 106 and 177 cumulative thawing degree-days, respectively, between June 5 and July 15. Beyond these thresholds, no relationship was observed between temperature and arthropod biomass. Our results suggest that prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures can positively influence prey availability for some arctic birds. This positive effect could, in part, stem from changes in arthropod assemblages and may reduce the risk of trophic mismatch.

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?

Global climate change has altered the timing of seasonal events (i.e., phenology) for a diverse range of biota. Within and among species, however, the degree to which alterations in phenology match climate variability differ substantially. To better understand factors driving these differences, we evaluated variation in timing of nesting of eight Arctic-breeding shorebird species at 18 sites over a 23-year period. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy to determine the start of spring (SOS) growing season and quantified relationships between SOS and nest initiation dates as a measure of phenological responsiveness. Among species, we tested four life history traits (migration distance, seasonal timing of breeding, female body mass, expected female reproductive effort) as species-level predictors of responsiveness. For one species (Semipalmated Sandpiper), we also evaluated whether responsiveness varied across sites. Although no species in our study completely tracked annual variation in SOS, phenological responses were strongest for Western Sandpipers, Pectoral Sandpipers, and Red Phalaropes. Migration distance was the strongest additional predictor of responsiveness, with longer-distance migrant species generally tracking variation in SOS more closely than species that migrate shorter distances. Semipalmated Sandpipers are a widely distributed species, but adjustments in timing of nesting relative to variability in SOS did not vary across sites, suggesting that different breeding populations of this species were equally responsive to climate cues despite differing migration strategies. Our results unexpectedly show that long-distance migrants are more sensitive to local environmental conditions, which may help them to adapt to ongoing changes in climate.

Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.

Five fundamental ways in which complex food webs may spiral out of control

Theory suggests that increasingly long, negative feedback loops of many interacting species may destabilize food webs as complexity increases. Less attention has, however, been paid to the specific ways in which these 'delayed negative feedbacks' may affect the response of complex ecosystems to global environmental change. Here, we describe five fundamental ways in which these feedbacks might pave the way for abrupt, large-scale transitions and species losses. By combining topological and bioenergetic models, we then proceed by showing that the likelihood of such transitions increases with the number of interacting species and/or when the combined effects of stabilizing network patterns approach the minimum required for stable coexistence. Our findings thus shift the question from the classical question of what makes complex, unaltered ecosystems stable to whether the effects of, known and unknown, stabilizing food-web patterns are sufficient to prevent abrupt, large-scale transitions under global environmental change.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Nesting Phenology of Three Shorebird Species in the United States

Previous research suggests that a frequent response of organisms to the ongoing climate crisis is the adjustment of their reproductive timing or breeding phenology. Shorebirds may be especially vulnerable to increasing temperatures and precipitation, as many are migratory and depend on coastal habitats for wintering and breeding. These particular habitats could be at risk due to changes in climate, and nesting times often depend on food availability, which is often directly influenced by temperature. We investigated if clutch initiation dates (CID) for three shorebird species in the United States have become earlier over time with increasing temperatures and precipitation. We used nest records from Cornell's NestWatch program and various museum databases and weather station data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We found evidence that CIDs have become earlier over time, though this was only a significant factor for one species. While temperature in our study areas has increased significantly over time, precipitation changes were more variable and not always significantly predicted by time. We found evidence that one species may be responding to increasing temperatures by nesting earlier, but there was no support for our hypothesis that CID has changed due to changes in precipitation for any species. Results varied for each species, indicating the importance of further studies on shorebirds as the effects of climate change on their nesting phenology may not be fully realized and will likely depend on the species' biology and distribution.

Climate-related range shifts in Arctic-breeding shorebirds

Aim

To test whether the occupancy of shorebirds has changed in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and whether these changes could indicate that shorebird distributions are shifting in response to long-term climate change.

Location

Foxe Basin and Rasmussen Lowlands, Nunavut, Canada.

Methods

We used a unique set of observations, made 25 years apart, using general linear models to test if there was a relationship between changes in shorebird species' occupancy and their species temperature Index, a simple version of a species climate envelope.

Results

Changes in occupancy and density varied widely across species, with some increasing and some decreasing. This is despite that overall population trends are known to be negative for all of these species based on surveys during migration. The changes in occupancy that we observed were positively related to the species temperature index, such that the warmer-breeding species appear to be moving into these regions, while colder-breeding species appear to be shifting out of the regions, likely northward.

Main Conclusions

Our results suggest that we should be concerned about declining breeding habitat availability for bird species whose current breeding ranges are centered on higher and colder latitudes.

Food resource uncertainty shapes the fitness consequences of early spring onset in capital and income breeding migratory birds

Due to climate change, the timing of spring arrival and nesting onset in many migratory bird species have advanced. Earlier spring onsets prolong the available breeding period but can also deteriorate local conditions, leading to increased temporal variation in resource availability. This interaction between phenological shifts in nesting onset and short-term temporal variation in food gain has unknown consequences for fitness of migratory bird species. We model two contrasting breeding strategies to investigate the fitness consequences of stochastically fluctuating food gain and storing of energetic reserves for reproduction. The model was inspired by the biology of common eiders (Somateria mollissima), which store extensive reserves prior to egg laying and incubation (capital breeding strategy), and king eiders (S. spectabilis), which continue to forage during nesting (income breeding strategy). For capital breeders, foraging prior to breeding increases energy reserves and clutch size, but for both strategies, postponing nesting reduces the chances of recruitment. We found that in scenarios with early spring onset, the average number of recruits produced by capital breeders was higher under conditions of stochastic rather than deterministic food gain. This is because under highly variable daily food gain, individuals successful in obtaining food can produce large clutches early in the season. However, income breeders do not build up reserve buffers; consequently, their fitness is always reduced, when food availability fluctuates. For both modeled strategies, resource uncertainty had only a minor effect on the timing of nesting onset. Our work shows that the fitness consequences of global changes in breeding season onset depend on the level of uncertainty in food intake and the degree to which reserves are used to fuel the reproductive effort. We predict that among migratory bird species producing one clutch per year, capital breeders are more resilient to climate-induced changes in spring phenology than income breeders.

Forest microclimate and composition mediate long-term trends of breeding bird populations

Climate change is contributing to biodiversity redistributions and species declines. However, cooler microclimate conditions provided by old-growth forest structures compared with surrounding open or younger forests have been hypothesized to provide thermal refugia for species that are sensitive to climate warming and dampen the negative effects of warming on population trends of animals (i.e., the microclimate buffering hypothesis). In addition to thermal refugia, the compositional and structural diversity of old-growth forest vegetation itself may provide resources to species that are less available in forests with simpler structure (i.e., the insurance hypothesis). We used 8 years of breeding bird abundance data from a forested watershed, accompanied with sub-canopy temperature data, and ground- and LiDAR-based vegetation data to test these hypotheses and identify factors influencing bird population changes from 2011 to 2018. After accounting for imperfect detection, we found that for 5 of 20 bird species analyzed, abundance trends tended to be less negative or neutral at sites with cooler microclimates, which supports the microclimate buffering hypothesis. Negative effects of warming on two species were also reduced in locations with greater forest compositional diversity supporting the insurance hypothesis. We provide the first empirical evidence that complex forest structure and vegetation diversity confer microclimatic advantages to some animal populations in the face of climate change. Conservation of old-growth forests, or their characteristics in managed forests, could help slow the negative effects of climate warming on some breeding bird populations via microclimate buffering and possibly insurance effects.

Length of stay and departure strategies of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) during post-breeding migration in the upper Bay of Fundy, Canada

The Bay of Fundy, Canada is a critical staging area for Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) during post-breeding migration. Recent range-wide population declines and changes in diet and migratory timing in the Bay of Fundy prompted a re-examination of staging ecology, including length of stay (last estimated in 1981), which is used in calculating migratory population estimates. We used radio-telemetry and the Motus Wildlife Tracking System to estimate individual length of stay and departure conditions for 159 Semipalmated Sandpipers in 2013 and 2014. Using tracking data we compared two estimation methods, minimum length of stay and mark-recapture modelling. Using minimum length of stay, the mean length of stay was approximately 21 days, an increase from the previous estimate of 15 days. Mark-recapture models suggested a much longer staging period that is inconsistent with other data. Sandpipers captured early in the staging period stayed longer on average than those captured later. Departures from the staging area were correlated with north-westerly winds, moderate to high wind speeds and low but rising atmospheric pressures. We suggest that Semipalmated Sandpipers in the Bay of Fundy are not operating on a time-selected migration schedule and instead wait for favourable weather conditions to depart, which occur more often later in the migratory period. Population trends in the Bay of Fundy should be re-evaluated in light of the increased length of stay.

Dynamic sensitivity to resource availability influences population responses to mismatches in a shorebird

Climate change has caused shifts in seasonally recurring biological events leading to the temporal decoupling of consumer-resource pairs - i.e., phenological mismatching. Although mismatches often affect individual fitness, they do not invariably scale up to affect populations, making it difficult to assess the risk they pose. Individual variation may contribute to this inconsistency, with changes in resource availability and consumer needs leading mismatches to have different outcomes over time. Nevertheless, most models estimate a consumer's match from a single timepoint, potentially obscuring when mismatches matter to populations. We analyzed how the effects of mismatches varied over time by studying precocial Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) chicks and their invertebrate prey from 2009 to 2019. We developed individual and population level models to determine how age-specific variation affect the relationship between godwits and resource availability. We found that periods with abundant resources led to higher growth and survival of godwit chicks, but also that chick survival was increasingly related to the availability of larger prey as chicks aged. At the population level, estimates of mismatches using age-structured consumer demand explained more variation in annual godwit fledging rates than more commonly used alternatives. Our study suggests that modeling the effects of mismatches as the disrupted interaction between dynamic consumer needs and resource availability clarifies when mismatches matter to both individuals and populations.

A specialist bee and its host plants experience phenological shifts at different rates in response to climate change

Changes in climate can alter the phenology of organisms, potentially decoupling partners within mutualisms. Previous studies have shown that plant and pollinator phenologies are shifting over time, but these shifts have primarily been documented for generalists and within small geographic regions, and the specific climatic cues regulating these shifts are not well-understood. We examined phenological shifts in a specialist pollinator and its host plant species over a 117-year study period using a digitized dataset of over 4000 unique collection records. We assess how climatic cues regulate these organisms' phenologies using PRISM weather data associated with each record. We tested the hypothesis that rates of phenological change would be greater at northern latitudes. We found that the phenology of the specialist bee pollinator Habropoda laboriosa is changing over time, but at different rates across its range. Specifically, phenology is advancing to a greater degree in more northern populations, with increasing phenological advances of 0.04 days/year with each degree of latitude, and with a delay in phenology in more southern populations. In contrast, only one species in the host plant genus Vaccinium is experiencing phenological change over time. For this plant, rates of change are also variable across latitudes, but in a pattern opposite that of the bee; while phenology is advancing across its range, rates of advance are highest in more southern populations, with decreasing phenological advances of 0.01 days/year with each degree of latitude. The phenologies of both the bee and three of four Vaccinium spp. were regulated primarily by spring temperature, with phenologies overall advancing with increasing temperature, and with the strongest responses shown by the bee in northern populations. Our study provides partial support for the hypothesis that phenologies advance most at northern latitudes, but demonstrates that pollinators and plants do not adhere similarly to this prediction. Additionally, we illustrate the potential for phenological mismatch between a specialist pollinator and its host plants by showing that plants and pollinators are advancing their phenologies at different rates across space and time and with differing responses to changing climatic cues.

Mismatch-induced growth reductions in a clade of Arctic-breeding shorebirds are rarely mitigated by increasing temperatures

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

An observational analysis of Canada Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) foraging and caching ecology in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA

Arctic and subarctic wildlife are among the most vulnerable species to climate change. Canada Jays (Perisoreus canadensis (Linnaeus, 1776)) are generalist residents of northern boreal forests and scatter-hoard food to insulate against food scarcity during winter. Unlike most scatter-hoarders, however, Canada Jays primarily cache perishable food, rendering their caches more susceptible to climate change induced degradation and loss. Here we use a mostly noninvasive approach to document Canada Jay foraging ecology among a population in interior Alaska, USA, including the types of food acquired, foraging and caching rates, and cache longevity and loss. We also tested for associations between foraging and caching rates with reproductive metrics to assess possible relationships among food and productivity. We found that Canada Jays have a varied diet that changed seasonally, and responded to a record-setting warm spring by directing foraging efforts away from cache recovery and towards the emergence of fresh food. We did not find evidence for relationships between foraging and caching rate with reproductive output, possibly owing to small sample sizes. We found that caches were recovered quickly (<4 weeks) and frequently lost to conspecific and heterospecific competitors. Our study suggests that Canada Jays may be better poised to respond to changes in cache integrity and food availability than has been previously recognized.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

Life-history attributes of Arctic-breeding birds drive uneven responses to environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle

Animals exhibit varied life-history traits that reflect adaptive responses to their environments. For Arctic-breeding birds, traits related to diet, egg nutrient allocation, clutch size, and chick growth are predicted to be under increasing selection pressure due to rapid climate change and increasing environmental variability across high-latitude regions. We compared four migratory birds (black brant [Branta bernicla nigricans], lesser snow geese [Chen caerulescens caerulescens], semipalmated sandpipers [Calidris pusilla], and Lapland longspurs [Calcarius lapponicus]) with varied life histories at an Arctic site in Alaska, USA, to understand how life-history traits help moderate environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle. We monitored aspects of reproductive performance related to the timing of breeding, reproductive investment, and chick growth from 2011 to 2018. In response to early snowmelt and warm temperatures, semipalmated sandpipers advanced their site arrival and bred in higher numbers, while brant and snow geese increased clutch sizes; all four species advanced their nest initiation dates. During chick rearing, longspur nestlings were relatively resilient to environmental variation, whereas warmer temperatures increased the growth rates of sandpiper chicks but reduced growth rates of snow goose goslings. These responses generally aligned with traits along the capital-income spectrum of nutrient acquisition and altricial-precocial modes of chick growth. Under a warming climate, the ability to mobilize endogenous reserves likely provides geese with relative flexibility to adjust the timing of breeding and the size of clutches. Higher temperatures, however, may negatively affect the quality of herbaceous foods and slow gosling growth. Species may possess traits that are beneficial during one phase of the reproductive cycle and others that may be detrimental at another phase, uneven responses that may be amplified with future climate warming. These results underscore the need to consider multiple phases of the reproductive cycle when assessing the effects of environmental variability on Arctic-breeding birds.

Timing of Breeding Site Availability Across the North-American Arctic Partly Determines Spring Migration Schedule in a Long-Distance Neotropical Migrant

Long-distance migrants are under strong selection to arrive on their breeding grounds at a time that maximizes fitness. Many arctic birds start nesting shortly after snow recedes from their breeding sites and timing of snowmelt can vary substantially over the breeding range of widespread species. We tested the hypothesis that migration schedules of individuals co-occurring at the same non-breeding areas are adapted to average local environmental conditions encountered at their specific and distant Arctic breeding locations. We predicted that timing of breeding site availability (measured here as the average snow-free date) should explain individual variation in departure time from shared non-breeding areas. We tested our prediction by tracking American Golden-Plovers (Pluvialis dominica) nesting across the North-American Arctic. These plovers use a non-breeding (wintering) area in South America and share a spring stopover area in the nearctic temperate grasslands, located &gt;1,800 km away from their nesting locations. As plovers co-occur at the same non-breeding areas but use breeding sites segregated by latitude and longitude, we could disentangle the potential confounding effects of migration distance and timing of breeding site availability on individual migration schedule. As predicted, departure date of individuals stopping-over in sympatry was positively related to the average snow-free date at their respective breeding location, which was also related to individual onset of incubation. Departure date from the shared stopover area was not explained by the distance between the stopover and the breeding location, nor by the stopover duration of individuals. This strongly suggests that plover migration schedule is adapted to and driven by the timing of breeding site availability per se. The proximate mechanism underlying the variable migration schedule of individuals is unknown and may result from genetic differences or individual learning. Temperatures are currently changing at different speeds across the Arctic and this likely generates substantial heterogeneity in the strength of selection pressure on migratory schedule of arctic birds migrating sympatrically.

Animal migration to northern latitudes: environmental changes and increasing threats

Every year, many wild animals undertake long-distance migration to breed in the north, taking advantage of seasonally high pulses in food supply, fewer parasites, and lower predation pressure in comparison with equatorial latitudes. Growing evidence suggests that climate-change-induced phenological mismatches have reduced food availability. Furthermore, novel pathogens and parasites are spreading northwards, and nest or offspring predation has increased at many Arctic and northern temperate locations. Altered trophic interactions have decreased the reproductive success and survival of migratory animals. Reduced advantages for long-distance migration have potentially serious consequences for community structure and ecosystem function. Changes in the benefits of migration need to be integrated into projections of population and ecosystem dynamics and targeted by innovative conservation actions.

Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting

Climate change in the Arctic is leading to earlier summers, creating a phenological mismatch between the hatching of insectivorous birds and the availability of their invertebrate prey. While phenological mismatch would presumably lower the survival of chicks, climate change is also leading to longer, warmer summers that may increase the annual productivity of birds by allowing adults to lay nests over a longer period of time, replace more nests that fail, and provide physiological relief to chicks (i.e., warmer temperatures that reduce thermoregulatory costs). However, there is little information on how these competing ecological processes will ultimately impact the demography of bird populations. In 2008 and 2009, we investigated the survival of chicks from initial and experimentally-induced replacement nests of arcticola Dunlin (Calidris alpina) breeding near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. We monitored survival of 66 broods from 41 initial and 25 replacement nests. Based on the average hatch date of each group, chick survival (up to age 15 days) from replacement nests (Ŝ_i = 0.10; 95% CI = 0.02–0.22) was substantially lower than initial nests (Ŝ_i = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.48–0.81). Daily survival rates were greater for older chicks, chicks from earlier-laid clutches, and during periods of greater invertebrate availability. As temperature was less important to daily survival rates of shorebird chicks than invertebrate availability, our results indicate that any physiological relief experienced by chicks will likely be overshadowed by the need for adequate food. Furthermore, the processes creating a phenological mismatch between hatching of shorebird young and invertebrate emergence ensures that warmer, longer breeding seasons will not translate into abundant food throughout the longer summers. Thus, despite having a greater opportunity to nest later (and potentially replace nests), young from these late-hatching broods will likely not have sufficient food to survive. Collectively, these results indicate that warmer, longer summers in the Arctic are unlikely to increase annual recruitment rates, and thus unable to compensate for low adult survival, which is typically limited by factors away from the Arctic-breeding grounds.

Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies

Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird's (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life-history traits.We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.

Global population trends in shorebirds: migratory behaviour makes species at risk

Linking population trends to species' traits is informative for the detection of the most important threatening factors and for assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures. Although some previous studies performed such an analysis at local to continental scales, the global-scale focus is the most relevant for conservation of the entire species. Here we evaluate information on global population trends of shorebirds, a widely distributed and ecologically diversified group, where some species connect different parts of the world by migration, while others are residents. Nowadays, shorebirds face rapid environmental changes caused by various human activities and climate change. Numerous signs of regional population declines have been recently reported in response to these threats. The aim of our study was to test whether breeding and non-breeding habitats, migratory behaviour (migrants vs. residents) and migration distance, breeding latitude, generation time and breeding range size mirror species' global population trends. We found that a majority of shorebird species have declined globally. After accounting for the influence of traits and species taxonomy, linear mixed-effects models showed that populations of migratory shorebirds decreased more than populations of residents. Besides that, declines were more frequent for species breeding at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but these patterns did not hold after excluding the non-migratory species. Our findings suggest that factors linked to migration, such as habitat loss as well as deterioration at stop-over or wintering sites and a pronounced climate change impact at high latitudes, are possible drivers of the observed worldwide population decreases.

Behavioural responses of breeding arctic sandpipers to ground-surface temperature and primary productivity

Most birds incubate their eggs, which requires time and energy at the expense of other activities. Birds generally have two incubation strategies: biparental where both mates cooperate in incubating eggs, and uniparental where a single parent incubates. In harsh and unpredictable environments, incubation is challenging due to high energetic demands and variable resource availability. We studied the relationships between the incubation behaviour of sandpipers (genus Calidris) and two environmental variables: temperature and a proxy of primary productivity (i.e. NDVI). We investigated how these relationships vary between incubation strategies and across species among strategies. We also studied how the relationship between current temperature and incubation behaviour varies with previous day's temperature. We monitored the incubation behaviour of nine sandpiper species using thermologgers at 15 arctic sites between 2016 and 2019. We also used thermologgers to record the ground surface temperature at conspecific nest sites and extracted NDVI values from a remote sensing product. We found no relationship between either environmental variables and biparental incubation behaviour. Conversely, as ground-surface temperature increased, uniparental species decreased total duration of recesses (TDR) and mean duration of recesses (MDR), but increased number of recesses (NR). Moreover, small species showed stronger relationships with ground-surface temperature than large species. When all uniparental species were combined, an increase in NDVI was correlated with higher mean duration, total duration and number of recesses, but relationships varied widely across species. Finally, some uniparental species showed a lag effect with a higher nest attentiveness after a warm day while more recesses occurred after a cold day than was predicted based on current temperatures. We demonstrate the complex interplay between shorebird incubation strategies, incubation behaviour, and environmental conditions. Understanding how species respond to changes in their environment during incubation helps predict their future reproductive success.

Predictors of invertebrate biomass and rate of advancement of invertebrate phenology across eight sites in the North American Arctic

Average annual temperatures in the Arctic increased by 2–3 °C during the second half of the twentieth century. Because shorebirds initiate northward migration to Arctic nesting sites based on cues at distant wintering grounds, climate-driven changes in the phenology of Arctic invertebrates may lead to a mismatch between the nutritional demands of shorebirds and the invertebrate prey essential for egg formation and subsequent chick survival. To explore the environmental drivers affecting invertebrate availability, we modeled the biomass of invertebrates captured in modified Malaise-pitfall traps over three summers at eight Arctic Shorebird Demographics Network sites as a function of accumulated degree-days and other weather variables. To assess climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology, we used data from the nearest long-term weather stations to hindcast invertebrate availability over 63 summers, 1950–2012. Our results confirmed the importance of both accumulated and daily temperatures as predictors of invertebrate availability while also showing that wind speed negatively affected invertebrate availability at the majority of sites. Additionally, our results suggest that seasonal prey availability for Arctic shorebirds is occurring earlier and that the potential for trophic mismatch is greatest at the northernmost sites, where hindcast invertebrate phenology advanced by approximately 1–2.5 days per decade. Phenological mismatch could have long-term population-level effects on shorebird species that are unable to adjust their breeding schedules to the increasingly earlier invertebrate phenologies.

Phenological mismatch in Arctic-breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth

The ecological consequences of climate change have been recognized in numerous species, with perhaps phenology being the most well-documented change. Phenological changes may have negative consequences when organisms within different trophic levels respond to environmental changes at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between predators and their prey. This may be especially apparent in the Arctic, which has been affected more by climate change than other regions, resulting in earlier, warmer, and longer summers. During a 7-year study near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological mismatch in relation to food availability and chick growth in a community of Arctic-breeding shorebirds experiencing advancement of environmental conditions (i.e., snowmelt). Our results indicate that Arctic-breeding shorebirds have experienced increased phenological mismatch with earlier snowmelt conditions. However, the degree of phenological mismatch was not a good predictor of food availability, as weather conditions after snowmelt made invertebrate availability highly unpredictable. As a result, the food available to shorebird chicks that were 2-10 days old was highly variable among years (ranging from 6.2 to 28.8 mg trap-1 day-1 among years in eight species), and was often inadequate for average growth (only 20%-54% of Dunlin and Pectoral Sandpiper broods on average had adequate food across a 4-year period). Although weather conditions vary among years, shorebirds that nested earlier in relation to snowmelt generally had more food available during brood rearing, and thus, greater chick growth rates. Despite the strong selective pressure to nest early, advancement of nesting is likely limited by the amount of plasticity in the start and progression of migration. Therefore, long-term climatic changes resulting in earlier snowmelt have the potential to greatly affect shorebird populations, especially if shorebirds are unable to advance nest initiation sufficiently to keep pace with seasonal advancement of their invertebrate prey.