Keystone predation: trait‐based or driven by extrinsic processes? Assessment using a comparative‐experimental approach

Regime shifts in rocky intertidal communities associated with a marine heatwave and disease outbreak

Long-term, large-scale experimental studies provide critical information about how global change influences communities. When environmental changes are severe, they can trigger abrupt transitions from one community type to another leading to a regime shift. From 2014 to 2016, rocky intertidal habitats in the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced extreme temperatures during a multi-year marine heatwave (MHW) and sharp population declines of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus due to sea star wasting disease (SSWD). Here we measured the community structure before, during and after the MHW onset and SSWD outbreak in a 15-year succession experiment conducted in a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem spanning 13 sites on four capes in Oregon and northern California, United States. Kelp abundance declined during the MHW due to extreme temperatures, while gooseneck barnacle and mussel abundances increased due to reduced predation pressure after the loss of Pisaster from SSWD. Using several methods, we detected regime shifts from substrate- or algae-dominated to invertebrate-dominated alternative states at two capes. After water temperatures cooled and Pisaster population densities recovered, community structure differed from pre-disturbance conditions, suggesting low resilience. Consequently, thermal stress and predator loss can result in regime shifts that fundamentally alter community structure even after restoration of baseline conditions.

Resistance of rocky intertidal communities to oceanic climate fluctuations

A powerful way to predict how ecological communities will respond to future climate change is to test how they have responded to the climate of the past. We used climate oscillations including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and variation in upwelling, air temperature, and sea temperatures to test the sensitivity of nearshore rocky intertidal communities to climate variability. Prior research shows that multiple ecological processes of key taxa (growth, recruitment, and physiology) were sensitive to environmental variation during this time frame. We also investigated the effect of the concurrent sea star wasting disease outbreak in 2013-2014. We surveyed nearly 150 taxa from 11 rocky intertidal sites in Oregon and northern California annually for up to 14-years (2006-2020) to test if community structure (i.e., the abundance of functional groups) and diversity were sensitive to past environmental variation. We found little to no evidence that these communities were sensitive to annual variation in any of the environmental measures, and that each metric was associated with < 8.6% of yearly variation in community structure. Only the years elapsed since the outbreak of sea star wasting disease had a substantial effect on community structure, but in the mid-zone only where spatially dominant mussels are a main prey of the keystone predator sea star, Pisaster ochraceus. We conclude that the established sensitivity of multiple ecological processes to annual fluctuations in climate has not yet scaled up to influence community structure. Hence, the rocky intertidal system along this coastline appears resistant to the range of oceanic climate fluctuations that occurred during the study. However, given ongoing intensification of climate change and increasing frequencies of extreme events, future responses to climate change seem likely.

Intraspecific variation in a predator changes intertidal community through effects on a foundation species

Intraspecific variation is an important form of biodiversity that can alter community and ecosystem properties. Recent work demonstrates the community effects of intraspecific variation in predators via altering prey communities and in foundation species via shaping habitat attributes. However, tests of the community effects of intraspecific trait variation in predators acting on foundation species are lacking despite the fact that consumption of foundation species can have strong community effects by shaping habitat structure. Here, we tested the hypothesis that intraspecific foraging differences among populations of mussel-drilling dogwhelk predators (Nucella) differentially alter intertidal communities through effects on foundational mussels. We conducted a 9-month field experiment where we exposed intertidal mussel bed communities to predation from three Nucella populations that exhibit differences in size-selectivity and consumption time for mussel prey. At the end of the experiment, we measured mussel bed structure, species diversity, and community composition. While exposure to Nucella originating from different populations did not significantly alter overall community diversity, we found that differences in Nucella mussel selectivity significantly altered foundational mussel bed structure, which in turn altered the biomass of shore crabs and periwinkle snails. Our study extends the emerging paradigm of the ecological importance of intraspecific variation to include the effects of intraspecific variation on predators of foundation species.

The Asymmetric Response Concept explains ecological consequences of multiple stressor exposure and release

Our capacity to predict trajectories of ecosystem degradation and recovery is limited, especially when impairments are caused by multiple stressors. Recovery may be fast or slow and either complete or partial, sometimes result in novel ecosystem states or even fail completely. Here, we introduce the Asymmetric Response Concept (ARC) that provides a basis for exploring and predicting the pace and magnitude of ecological responses to, and release from, multiple stressors. The ARC holds that three key mechanisms govern population, community and ecosystem trajectories. Stress tolerance is the main mechanism determining responses to increasing stressor intensity, whereas dispersal and biotic interactions predominantly govern responses to the release from stressors. The shifting importance of these mechanisms creates asymmetries between the ecological trajectories that follow increasing and decreasing stressor intensities. This recognition helps to understand multiple stressor impacts and to predict which measures will restore communities that are resistant to restoration.

Trophic ontogeny of a generalist predator is conserved across space

Consumers can influence ecological patterns and processes through their trophic roles and contributions to the flow of energy through ecosystems. However, the diet and associated trophic roles of consumers commonly change during ontogeny. Despite the prevalence of ontogenetic variation in trophic roles of most animals, we lack an understanding of whether they change consistently across local populations and broad geographic gradients. We examined how the diet and trophic position of a generalist marine predator varied with ontogeny across seven broadly separated locations (~ 750 km). We observed a high degree of heterogeneity in prey consumed without evidence of spatial structuring in this variability. However, compound-specific isotope analysis of amino acids revealed remarkably consistent patterns of increasing trophic position through ontogeny across local populations, suggesting that the roles of this generalist predator scaled with its body size across space. Given the high degree of diet heterogeneity we observed, this finding suggests that even though the dietary patterns differed, the underlying food web architecture transcended variation in prey species across locations for this generalist consumer. Our research addresses a gap in empirical field work regarding the interplay between stage-structured populations and food webs, and suggests ontogenetic changes in trophic position can be consistent in generalist consumers.

Predatory Bacteria Select for Sustained Prey Diversity

Predator impacts on prey diversity are often studied among higher organisms over short periods, but microbial predator-prey systems allow examination of prey-diversity dynamics over evolutionary timescales. We previously showed that Escherichia coli commonly evolved minority mucoid phenotypes in response to predation by the bacterial predator Myxococcus xanthus by one time point of a coevolution experiment now named MyxoEE-6. Here we examine mucoid frequencies across several MyxoEE-6 timepoints to discriminate between the hypotheses that mucoids were increasing to fixation, stabilizing around equilibrium frequencies, or heading to loss toward the end of MyxoEE-6. In four focal coevolved prey populations, mucoids rose rapidly early in the experiment and then fluctuated within detectable minority frequency ranges through the end of MyxoEE-6, generating frequency dynamics suggestive of negative frequency-dependent selection. However, a competition experiment between mucoid and non-mucoid clones found a predation-specific advantage of the mucoid clone that was insensitive to frequency over the examined range, leaving the mechanism that maintains minority mucoidy unresolved. The advantage of mucoidy under predation was found to be associated with reduced population size after growth (productivity) in the absence of predators, suggesting a tradeoff between productivity and resistance to predation that we hypothesize may reverse mucoid vs non-mucoid fitness ranks within each MyxoEE-6 cycle. We also found that mucoidy was associated with diverse colony phenotypes and diverse candidate mutations primarily localized in the exopolysaccharide operon yjbEFGH. Collectively, our results show that selection from predatory bacteria can generate apparently stable sympatric phenotypic polymorphisms within coevolving prey populations and also allopatric diversity across populations by selecting for diverse mutations and colony phenotypes associated with mucoidy. More broadly, our results suggest that myxobacterial predation increases long-term diversity within natural microbial communities.