Evidence‐based evaluation of the cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration

Competition limits first-year growth and flowering of wiregrass (Aristida beyrichiana) at a sandhills restoration site

Uncertainty in ecosystem restoration can be mitigated by information on drivers of variability in restoration outcomes, especially through experimental study. In southeastern USA pine savannas, efforts to restore the perennial bunchgrass wiregrass (Aristida beyrichiana) often achieve variable outcomes in the first year. Although ecotypic differentiation and competition with other native vegetation are known to influence wiregrass seedling establishment and growth, to our knowledge, no studies have examined interactions between these drivers. We experimentally quantified individual and interactive effects of competition, seed source, and soil type on wiregrass density, size, and flowering culm production in the field. We sowed seeds from dry and wet sites reciprocally into dry and wet soils and weeded half of the plots. We found that competition removal resulted in significantly larger plants and a greater proportion of flowering plants with more culms on average, regardless of seed source or soil type. Seeds sourced from a wet site resulted in more plants per plot than seeds from a dry site, which might have been influenced by the greater number of filled seeds from the wet site. After seedlings become established, competition contributes to variation in growth and reproduction. Although competition removal could help start wiregrass populations, the necessity of mitigation depends on fire management needs.

Export of macroinvertebrate prey from tidal freshwater wetlands provides a significant energy subsidy for outmigrating juvenile salmon

Tidal freshwater wetlands linking terrestrial, riverine, and saline habitats are critical areas for material processing and exchange. Once historically widespread, herbaceous marsh and forested tidal freshwater wetlands especially are now highly degraded worldwide. Additionally, quantitative assessments of hydrology and material exchange from these systems are lacking compared to lotic and estuarine (saltmarsh) habitats. Here we investigate macroinvertebrate and energy export from tidal marsh and forested wetlands and consider potential benefits from this ecological process to endangered Pacific salmon in a large tidal freshwater system, the Columbia River (USA). Macroinvertebrate (salmon prey) concentration, water velocity, and discharge were measured at several wetland habitat types (forested swamp, emergent marsh, and restored marsh). We used these data to compute prey flux and transport metrics. Then, applying literature values to calculate prey energy equivalents and juvenile salmon metabolic requirements, we estimated the potential energy subsidy available to juvenile salmon. Numerically, larval stages of aquatic insects were the predominant type of prey exported from the wetlands, with Diptera chironomid fly abundance exceeding other groups. Energetically, however, non-chironomid dipterans and hemipteran prey comprised most of energy transport due to their higher energetic content (energy density × mean weight). We determined the prey energy transported from the sampled tidal channels was sufficient to meet energetic needs of tens to thousands of juvenile salmon per day, depending on prey production and hydrography. The prey taxonomic composition differed among organisms exiting forested swamp, emergent marsh, and restored marsh habitats with corresponding differences in energy transport, but all habitat types supported similar numbers of juvenile salmon. We conclude that macroinvertebrate prey exported from varied tidal freshwater wetlands likely provide significant benefits to juvenile salmon over a larger ecological footprint than the wetland area would suggest.

The Hierarchy-of-Hypotheses Approach: A Synthesis Method for Enhancing Theory Development in Ecology and Evolution

In the current era of Big Data, existing synthesis tools such as formal meta-analyses are critical means to handle the deluge of information. However, there is a need for complementary tools that help to (a) organize evidence, (b) organize theory, and (c) closely connect evidence to theory. We present the hierarchy-of-hypotheses (HoH) approach to address these issues. In an HoH, hypotheses are conceptually and visually structured in a hierarchically nested way where the lower branches can be directly connected to empirical results. Used for organizing evidence, this tool allows researchers to conceptually connect empirical results derived through diverse approaches and to reveal under which circumstances hypotheses are applicable. Used for organizing theory, it allows researchers to uncover mechanistic components of hypotheses and previously neglected conceptual connections. In the present article, we offer guidance on how to build an HoH, provide examples from population and evolutionary biology and propose terminological clarifications.

Climate change threatens Chinook salmon throughout their life cycle

Widespread declines in Atlantic and Pacific salmon (Salmo salar and Oncorhynchus spp.) have tracked recent climate changes, but managers still lack quantitative projections of the viability of any individual population in response to future climate change. To address this gap, we assembled a vast database of survival and other data for eight wild populations of threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). For each population, we evaluated climate impacts at all life stages and modeled future trajectories forced by global climate model projections. Populations rapidly declined in response to increasing sea surface temperatures and other factors across diverse model assumptions and climate scenarios. Strong density dependence limited the number of salmon that survived early life stages, suggesting a potentially efficacious target for conservation effort. Other solutions require a better understanding of the factors that limit survival at sea. We conclude that dramatic increases in smolt survival are needed to overcome the negative impacts of climate change for this threatened species.

Reliability of evidence-review methods in restoration ecology

In restoration science, evidence reviews play a crucial role in summarizing research findings in practice and policy. However, if unreliable or inappropriate methods are used to review evidence, decisions based on these reviews may not accurately reflect the available evidence base. To assess the current value of restoration reviews, we examined a sample of meta-analyses and narrative syntheses (n = 91) with the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence Synthesis Assessment Tool (CEESAT), which uses detailed criteria to assesses the method of policy-relevant evidence synthesis according to elements important for objectivity, transparency, and comprehensiveness. Overall, reviews scored low based on this standard: median score 16 out of 39, modal score 15, and mean 16.6. Meta-analyses scored higher than narrative syntheses (median 17 vs. 5, respectively), although there were some outlier narrative syntheses that had high scores, suggesting that quantitative synthesis does not solely reflect the reliability of a review. In general, criteria spanning the more fundamental review stages (i.e., searching for studies and including studies) received low scores for both synthesis types. Conversely, criteria comprising the later stages of the review (i.e., critical appraisal, data extraction, and data synthesis) were generally well described in meta-analyses; thus, these criteria achieved the highest individual CEESAT scores. We argue that restoration ecology is well positioned to advance so-called evidence-based restoration, but review authors should elucidate their conceptual understanding of evidence syntheses and recognize that conducting reliable reviews demands the same methodological rigor and reporting standards used in primary research. Given the potential of evidence reviews to inform management, policy, and research, it is of vital importance that the overall methodological reliability of restoration reviews be improved.

Cumulative effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on the forest carbon balance in the oil sands region of Alberta, Canada; a pilot study (1985-2012)

BACKGROUND

Assessing cumulative effects of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on forest carbon (C) stocks and fluxes, because of their relevance to climate change, is a requirement of environmental impact assessments (EIAs) in Canada. However, tools have not been developed specifically for these purposes, and in particular for the boreal forest of Canada, so current forest C assessments in EIAs take relatively simple approaches. Here, we demonstrate how an existing tool, the Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM), developed for national and international forest C reporting, was used for an assessment of the cumulative effects of anthropogenic and natural disturbances to support EIA requirements. We applied the GCBM to approximately 1.3 million ha of upland forest in a pilot study area of the oil sands region of Alberta that has experienced a large number of anthropogenic (forestry, energy sector) and natural (wildfire, insect) disturbances.

RESULTS

Over the 28 years, 25% of the pilot study area was disturbed. Increasing disturbance emissions, combined with declining net primary productivity and reductions in forest area, changed the study area from a net C sink to a net C source. Forest C stocks changed from 332.2 Mt to 327.5 Mt, declining by 4.7 Mt at an average rate of 0.128 tC ha^-1 yr^-1. The largest cumulative areas of disturbance were caused by wildfire (139,000 ha), followed by the energy sector (110,000 ha), insects (33,000 ha) and harvesting (31,000 ha) but the largest cumulative disturbance emissions were caused by the energy sector (9.5 Mt C), followed by wildfire (5.5 Mt C), and then harvesting (1.3 Mt C).

CONCLUSION

An existing forest C model was used successfully to provide a rigorous regional cumulative assessment of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on forest C, which meets requirements of EIAs in Canada. The assessment showed the relative importance of disturbances on C emissions in the pilot study area, but their relative importance is expected to change in other parts of the oil sands region because of its diversity in disturbance types, patterns and intensity. Future assessments should include peatland C stocks and fluxes, which could be addressed by using the Canadian Model for Peatlands.

Applying cumulative effects to strategically advance large-scale ecosystem restoration

International efforts to restore degraded ecosystems will continue to expand over the coming decades, yet the factors contributing to the effectiveness of long-term restoration across large areas remain largely unexplored. At large scales, outcomes are more complex and synergistic than the additive impacts of individual restoration projects. Here, we propose a cumulative-effects conceptual framework to inform restoration design and implementation and to comprehensively measure ecological outcomes. To evaluate and illustrate this approach, we reviewed long-term restoration in several large coastal and riverine areas across the US: the greater Florida Everglades; Gulf of Mexico coast; lower Columbia River and estuary; Puget Sound; San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta; Missouri River; and northeastern coastal states. Evidence supported eight modes of cumulative effects of interacting restoration projects, which improved outcomes for species and ecosystems at landscape and regional scales. We conclude that cumulative effects, usually measured for ecosystem degradation, are also measurable for ecosystem restoration. The consideration of evidence-based cumulative effects will help managers of large-scale restoration capitalize on positive feedback and reduce countervailing effects.

Integrating MAES implementation into protected area management under climate change: A fine-scale application in Greece

Increasing anthropogenic pressures often jeopardize ecosystem integrity and policy-relevant conservation management in protected areas. To harmonize nature conservation with human well-being, EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 suggests Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) as the key concept for environmental planning and management in EU Member States. Applying this procedure is challenging due to its data-demanding and multidisciplinary nature, resulting in the ecoystem services (ES) approach being scarcely used in protected areas management. Increased data availability under EU biodiversity-related inventories and monitoring projects, as well as theoretical and empirical research advances developed during the last decade, should be put into practice to guide Member States towards local management frameworks and scenario building under the ongoing changes in the EU socio-economic environment. This study aims at filling this gap by embodying into the MAES operational framework a scenario-based approach and demonstrates this in a challenging case study of a Natura 2000 site, Lake Stymfalia, in Greece. The present management strategy, an ecological-friendly management practice, a water-efficient management practice and a non-environmentally friendly option (e.g. ecosystem destruction) are examined for current and future water demand under current and future climatic scenarios. The proposed methodological framework for ES operationalization is based on the available data (derived by EU Directives and/or modelling), expert judgment and stakeholder involvement. Therefore, this work applies and tests the importance of the MAES approach as a management and coordination platform.

Assessment of the cumulative effects of restoration activities on water quality in Tampa Bay, Florida

Habitat and water quality restoration projects are commonly used to enhance coastal resources or mitigate negative impacts of water quality stressors. Significant resources have been expended for restoration projects, yet much less attention has focused on evaluating broad regional outcomes beyond site-specific assessments. This study presents an empirical framework to evaluate multiple datasets in the Tampa Bay area (Florida, USA) to identify 1) the types of restoration projects that have produced the greatest improvements in water quality, and 2) over which time frames different projects may produce water quality benefits. Information on the location and date of completion of 887 restoration projects from 1971 to 2017 were spatially and temporally matched with water quality records at each of 45 long-term monitoring stations in Tampa Bay. The underlying assumption was that the developed framework could identify differences in water quality changes between types of restoration projects based on aggregate estimates of chlorophyll-a concentrations before and after the completion of one to many projects. Water infrastructure projects to control point source nutrient loading into the Bay were associated with the highest likelihood of chlorophyll-a reduction, particularly for projects occurring prior to 1995. Habitat restoration projects were also associated with reductions in chlorophyll-a, although the likelihood of reductions from the cumulative effects of these projects were less than those from infrastructure improvements alone. The framework is sufficiently flexible for application to different spatiotemporal contexts and could be used to develop reasonable expectations for implementation of future water quality restoration activities throughout the Gulf of Mexico.

Storm-driven particulate organic matter flux connects a tidal tributary floodplain wetland, mainstem river, and estuary

The transport of terrestrial plant matter into coastal waters is important to regional and global biogeochemical cycles, and methods for assessing and predicting fluxes in such dynamic environments are needed. We investigated the hypothesis that upon reconnection of a floodplain wetland to its mainstem river, organic matter produced in the wetland would reach other parts of the ecosystem. If so, we can infer that the organic matter would ultimately become a source for the food web in the mainstem river and estuary. To accomplish this, we adapted numerical hydrodynamic and transport modeling methods to estimate the mass of particulate organic matter (POM) derived from the annually senescent aboveground parts of herbaceous marsh plants (H-POM). The Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), parameterized with flow, tide, and aboveground biomass data, simulated H-POM mobilization from fluid shear stress during tidal exchange, flooding, and variable river flow; entrainment into the water column; transport via channel and overland flow; and entrapment when wetted surfaces dry. We examined export from a recently reconnected, restoring tidal emergent marsh on the Grays River, a tributary to the Columbia River estuary. Modeling indicated that hydrologically reconnecting 65 ha at the site resulted in export of about 96 × 10³  kg of H-POM, primarily during pulsed storm flooding events in autumn and early winter. This exported mass amounted to about 19% of the summer peak aboveground biomass measured at the site. Of that 19%, about 48% (47 × 10³  kg) was deposited downstream in the Grays River and floodplain wetlands, and the remaining 52% (50 × 10³  kg) passed the confluence of the Grays River and the mainstem estuary located about 7 km from the study site. The colonization of the restoring study site largely by nonnative Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) may have resulted in 18-28% lower H-POM mobilization than typical marsh plant communities on this floodplain, based on estimates from regional studies of marshes dominated by less recalcitrant species. We concluded that restored floodplain wetlands can contribute significant amounts of organic matter to the estuarine ecosystem and thereby contribute to the restoration of historical trophic structure.

Reconciling agriculture and stream restoration in Europe: A review relating to the EU Water Framework Directive

Agriculture is widespread across the EU and has caused considerable impacts on freshwater ecosystems. To revert the degradation caused to streams and rivers, research and restoration efforts have been developed to recover ecosystem functions and services, with the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) playing a significant role in strengthening the progress. Analysing recent peer-reviewed European literature (2009-2016), this review explores 1) the conflicts and difficulties faced when restoring agriculturally impacted streams, 2) the aspects relevant to effectively reconcile agricultural land uses and healthy riverine ecosystems and 3) the effects and potential shortcomings of the first WFD management cycle. Our analysis reveals significant progress in restoration efforts, but it also demonstrates an urgent need for a higher number and detail of restoration projects reported in the peer-reviewed literature. The first WFD cycle ended in 2015 without reaching the goal of good ecological status in many European water-bodies. Addressing limitations reported in recent papers, including difficulties in stakeholder integration and importance of small headwater streams, is crucial. Analysing recent developments on stakeholder engagement through structured participatory processes will likely reduce perception discrepancies and increase stakeholder interest during the next WFD planning cycle. Despite an overall dominance of nutrient-related research, studies are spreading across many important topics (e.g. stakeholder management, land use conflicts, climate change effects), which may play an important role in guiding future policy. Our recommendations are important for the second WFD cycle because they 1) help secure the development and dissemination of science-based restoration strategies and 2) provide guidance for future research needs.

An expert panel process to evaluate habitat restoration actions in the Columbia River estuary

We describe a process for evaluating proposed ecosystem restoration projects intended to improve survival of juvenile salmon in the Columbia River estuary (CRE). Changes in the Columbia River basin (northwestern USA), including hydropower development, have contributed to the listing of 13 salmon stocks as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Habitat restoration in the CRE, from Bonneville Dam to the ocean, is part of a basin-wide, legally mandated effort to mitigate federal hydropower impacts on salmon survival. An Expert Regional Technical Group (ERTG) was established in 2009 to improve and implement a process for assessing and assigning "survival benefit units" (SBUs) to restoration actions. The SBU concept assumes site-specific restoration projects will increase juvenile salmon survival during migration through the 234 km CRE. Assigned SBUs are used to inform selection of restoration projects and gauge mitigation progress. The ERTG standardized the SBU assessment process to improve its scientific integrity, repeatability, and transparency. In lieu of experimental data to quantify the survival benefits of individual restoration actions, the ERTG adopted a conceptual model composed of three assessment criteria-certainty of success, fish opportunity improvements, and habitat capacity improvements-to evaluate restoration projects. Based on these criteria, an algorithm assigned SBUs by integrating potential fish density as an indicator of salmon performance. Between 2009 and 2014, the ERTG assessed SBUs for 55 proposed projects involving a total of 181 restoration actions located across 8 of 9 reaches of the CRE, largely relying on information provided in a project template based on the conceptual model, presentations, discussions with project sponsors, and site visits. Most projects restored tidal inundation to emergent wetlands, improved riparian function, and removed invasive vegetation. The scientific relationship of geomorphic and salmonid responses to restoration actions remains the foremost concern. Although not designed to establish a broad strategy for estuary restoration, the scoring process has adaptively influenced the types, designs, and locations of restoration proposals. The ERTG process may be a useful model for others who have unique ecosystem restoration goals and share some of our common challenges.

Adaptive management of large aquatic ecosystem recovery programs in the United States

Adaptive management (AM) is being employed in a number of programs in the United States to guide actions to restore aquatic ecosystems because these programs are both expensive and are faced with significant uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties are associated with prioritizing when, where, and what kind of actions are needed to meet the objectives of enhancing ecosystem services and recovering threatened and endangered species. We interviewed nine large-scale aquatic ecosystem restoration programs across the United States to document the lessons learned from implementing AM. In addition, we recorded information on ecological drivers (e.g., endangered fish species) for the program, and inferred how these drivers reflected more generic ecosystem services. Ecosystem services (e.g., genetic diversity, cultural heritage), albeit not explicit drivers, were either important to the recovery or enhancement of the drivers, or were additional benefits associated with actions to recover or enhance the program drivers. Implementing programs using AM lessons learned has apparently helped achieve better results regarding enhancing ecosystem services and restoring target species populations. The interviews yielded several recommendations. The science and AM program must be integrated into how the overall restoration program operates in order to gain understanding and support, and effectively inform management decision-making. Governance and decision-making varied based on its particular circumstances. Open communication within and among agency and stakeholder groups and extensive vetting lead up to decisions. It was important to have an internal agency staff member to implement the AM plan, and a clear designation of roles and responsibilities, and long-term commitment of other involved parties. The most important management questions and information needs must be identified up front. It was imperative to clearly identify, link and continually reinforce the essential components of an AM plan, including objectives, constraints, uncertainties, hypotheses, management actions, decision criteria and triggers, monitoring, and research. Some employed predictive models and the results of research on uncertainties to vet options for actions. Many relied on best available science and professional judgment to decide if adjustments to actions were needed. All programs emphasized the need to be nimble enough to be responsive to new information and make necessary adjustments to management action implementation. We recommend that ecosystem services be explicit drivers of restoration programs to facilitate needed funding and communicate to the general public and with the global efforts on restoring and conserving ecosystems.