1
|
Solvang HK, Arneberg P. Flagged observation analyses as a tool for scoping and communication in integrated ecosystem assessments. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0305716. [PMID: 39312549 PMCID: PMC11419343 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2022] [Accepted: 06/04/2024] [Indexed: 09/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Working groups for integrated ecosystem assessments are often challenged with understanding and assessing recent change in ecosystems. As a basis for this, the groups typically have at their disposal many time series and will often need to prioritize which ones to follow up for closer analyses and assessment. In this article we provide a procedure termed Flagged Observation analysis that can be applied to all the available time series to help identifying time series that should be prioritized. The statistical procedure first applies a structural time series model including a stochastic trend model to the data to estimate the long-term trend. The model adopts a state space representation, and the trend component is estimated by a Kalman filter algorithm. The algorithm obtains one- or more-years-ahead prediction values using all past information from the data. Thus, depending on the number of years the investigator wants to consider as "the most recent", the expected trend for these years is estimated through the statistical procedure by using only information from the years prior to them. Forecast bands are estimated around the predicted trends for the recent years, and in the final step, an assessment is made on the extent to which observations from the most recent years fall outside these forecast bands. Those that do, may be identified as flagged observations. A procedure is also presented for assessing whether the combined information from all the most recent observations form a pattern that deviates from the predicted trend and thus represents an unexpected tendency that may be flagged. In addition to form the basis for identifying time series that should be prioritized in an integrated ecosystem assessment, flagged observations can provide the basis for communicating with managers and stakeholders about recent ecosystem change. Applications of the framework are illustrated with two worked examples.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Per Arneberg
- Ecosystem Processes Research Group, Institute of Marine Research, Fram Centre, Langnes, Norway
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Sguotti C, Vasilakopoulos P, Tzanatos E, Frelat R. Resilience assessment in complex natural systems. Proc Biol Sci 2024; 291:20240089. [PMID: 38807517 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2024.0089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Ecological resilience is the capability of an ecosystem to maintain the same structure and function and avoid crossing catastrophic tipping points (i.e. undergoing irreversible regime shifts). While fundamental for management, concrete ways to estimate and interpret resilience in real ecosystems are still lacking. Here, we develop an empirical approach to estimate resilience based on the stochastic cusp model derived from catastrophe theory. The cusp model models tipping points derived from a cusp bifurcation. We extend cusp in order to identify the presence of stable and unstable states in complex natural systems. Our Cusp Resilience Assessment (CUSPRA) has three characteristics: (i) it provides estimates on how likely a system is to cross a tipping point (in the form of a cusp bifurcation) characterized by hysteresis, (ii) it assesses resilience in relation to multiple external drivers and (iii) it produces straightforward results for ecosystem-based management. We validate our approach using simulated data and demonstrate its application using empirical time series of an Atlantic cod population and marine ecosystems in the North Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. We show that Cusp Resilience Assessment is a powerful method to empirically estimate resilience in support of a sustainable management of our constantly adapting ecosystems under global climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Camilla Sguotti
- Department of Biology, University of Padova , Padova 35100, Italy
- Institute of Marine Ecosystems and Fishery Science (IMF), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg , Hamburg 22767, Germany
| | | | | | - Romain Frelat
- PO Box 30709, International Livestock Research Institute , Nairobi 00100, Kenya
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Cheeseman T, Southerland K, Acebes JM, Audley K, Barlow J, Bejder L, Birdsall C, Bradford AL, Byington JK, Calambokidis J, Cartwright R, Cedarleaf J, Chavez AJG, Currie JJ, De Weerdt J, Doe N, Doniol-Valcroze T, Dracott K, Filatova O, Finn R, Flynn K, Ford JKB, Frisch-Jordán A, Gabriele CM, Goodwin B, Hayslip C, Hildering J, Hill MC, Jacobsen JK, Jiménez-López ME, Jones M, Kobayashi N, Lyman E, Malleson M, Mamaev E, Martínez Loustalot P, Masterman A, Matkin C, McMillan CJ, Moore JE, Moran JR, Neilson JL, Newell H, Okabe H, Olio M, Pack AA, Palacios DM, Pearson HC, Quintana-Rizzo E, Ramírez Barragán RF, Ransome N, Rosales-Nanduca H, Sharpe F, Shaw T, Stack SH, Staniland I, Straley J, Szabo A, Teerlink S, Titova O, Urban R J, van Aswegen M, de Morais MV, von Ziegesar O, Witteveen B, Wray J, Yano KM, Zwiefelhofer D, Clapham P. A collaborative and near-comprehensive North Pacific humpback whale photo-ID dataset. Sci Rep 2023; 13:10237. [PMID: 37353581 PMCID: PMC10290149 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-36928-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/25/2023] Open
Abstract
We present an ocean-basin-scale dataset that includes tail fluke photographic identification (photo-ID) and encounter data for most living individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Pacific Ocean. The dataset was built through a broad collaboration combining 39 separate curated photo-ID catalogs, supplemented with community science data. Data from throughout the North Pacific were aggregated into 13 regions, including six breeding regions, six feeding regions, and one migratory corridor. All images were compared with minimal pre-processing using a recently developed image recognition algorithm based on machine learning through artificial intelligence; this system is capable of rapidly detecting matches between individuals with an estimated 97-99% accuracy. For the 2001-2021 study period, a total of 27,956 unique individuals were documented in 157,350 encounters. Each individual was encountered, on average, in 5.6 sampling periods (i.e., breeding and feeding seasons), with an annual average of 87% of whales encountered in more than one season. The combined dataset and image recognition tool represents a living and accessible resource for collaborative, basin-wide studies of a keystone marine mammal in a time of rapid ecological change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ted Cheeseman
- Happywhale, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
- Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW, Australia.
| | | | | | | | - Jay Barlow
- NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, San Diego, California, USA
| | - Lars Bejder
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Kaneohe, Hawai'i, USA
| | - Caitlin Birdsall
- Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
- Ocean Wise, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Amanda L Bradford
- NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, Hawai'i, USA
| | - Josie K Byington
- Pacific Wildlife Foundation, Port Moody, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Nicole Doe
- Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - Karina Dracott
- Ocean Wise, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- North Coast Cetacean Society, Hartley Bay, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - Rachel Finn
- NOAA Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii, USA
| | | | - John K B Ford
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - Christine M Gabriele
- Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Gustavus, Alaska, USA
- Hawai'i Marine Mammal Consortium, Kamuela, Hawai'i, USA
| | - Beth Goodwin
- Eye of the Whale Marine Mammal Research, Kamuela, Hawai'i, USA
| | - Craig Hayslip
- Marine Mammal Institute, Oregon State University, Newport, Oregon, USA
| | - Jackie Hildering
- Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Marie C Hill
- NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, Hawai'i, USA
- Cooperative Institution of Marine and Atmospheric Research, Research Corporation of the University of Hawai'i, Honolulu, Hawai'i, USA
| | | | - M Esther Jiménez-López
- Departamento Académico de Ingeniería en Pesquerías, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, Baja California Sur, México
| | | | | | - Edward Lyman
- NOAA Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, Kihei, Maui, Hawaii, USA
| | - Mark Malleson
- Humpback Whales of the Salish Sea, Duncan, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Evgeny Mamaev
- Commander Islands National Park, Kamchatka Krai, Russian Federation
| | | | | | | | - Christie J McMillan
- Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jeff E Moore
- NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, San Diego, California, USA
| | - John R Moran
- NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Juneau, Alaska, USA
| | - Janet L Neilson
- Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Gustavus, Alaska, USA
| | | | - Haruna Okabe
- Okinawa Churashima Foundation, Kunigami-gun, Japan
| | | | - Adam A Pack
- University of Hawai'i at Hilo, Hilo, Hawai'i, USA
- The Dolphin Institute, Hilo, Hawai'i, USA
| | - Daniel M Palacios
- Marine Mammal Institute, Oregon State University, Newport, Oregon, USA
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, Newport, Oregon, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Hiram Rosales-Nanduca
- Departamento Académico de Ingeniería en Pesquerías, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, Baja California Sur, México
| | - Fred Sharpe
- Alaska Whale Foundation, Petersburg, Alaska, USA
| | - Tasli Shaw
- Humpback Whales of the Salish Sea, Duncan, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | | | - Jan Straley
- University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, Alaska, USA
| | - Andrew Szabo
- Alaska Whale Foundation, Petersburg, Alaska, USA
| | - Suzie Teerlink
- NOAA Fisheries Alaska Regional Office, Juneau, Alaska, USA
| | - Olga Titova
- Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Moscow, Russian Federation
| | - Jorge Urban R
- Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, Mexico
| | | | | | | | | | - Janie Wray
- North Coast Cetacean Society, Hartley Bay, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Kymberly M Yano
- NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, Hawai'i, USA
- Cooperative Institution of Marine and Atmospheric Research, Research Corporation of the University of Hawai'i, Honolulu, Hawai'i, USA
| | | | - Phil Clapham
- Seastar Scientific, Vashon Island, Washington, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Wijewardhana UA, Jayawardana M, Meyer D. Modelling the recovery of resident shorebirds following a fox eradication program using citizen science data. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
|
5
|
Zhang X, Jin X, Liang X, Ren J, Han B, Liu J, Fan Y, Zhou Y. Implications of land sparing and sharing for maintaining regional ecosystem services: An empirical study from a suitable area for agricultural production in China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 820:153330. [PMID: 35074364 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2021] [Revised: 01/18/2022] [Accepted: 01/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The clarification of land use management in areas of potential land use conflict plays an important role in maintaining ecosystem services. However, the relationship between land use strategies and ecosystem services in potential conflict zones remains uncertain, lacking quantitative evidence. Therefore, to construct a healthy territorial space system, a spatial classification model for land use was built based on land sparing and sharing. In addition, the inherent characteristics of different modes in the landscape structure and functional heterogeneity were also resolved. Then, an empirical analysis was carried out with the coastal agricultural production area of Maoming City, Guangdong Province. Focusing on the potential area of land use conflicts in Maoming City, that is, the suitable area for agricultural production, this study determined the differences in ecosystem services under multiple land use patterns at the pixel level, explored the trade-offs of ecosystem services in the entire suitable area and a single model, and examined the gradient effect of ecosystem services with the intensity of cultivated land use. According to the results, ecosystem services significantly differed in land use patterns, and the comprehensive ecosystem service was the highest in the land sharing model. Ecosystem services exert a synergistic effect in the entire suitable area for agricultural production, whereas there exists no correlation within a single model. When the arable land area of intensive agriculture exceeds 84.84%, food supply and other ecosystem services will be reduced to varying degrees. The study bridges the gap in research on the relationship between land sparing and sharing and ecosystem services in Chinese regions, and proposes clear land remediation strategies in potential conflict zones, which can thus provide some guidance for achieving sustainable regional development.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xiaolin Zhang
- School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Xiaobin Jin
- School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China; Jiangsu Land Development and Consolidation Technology Engineering Center, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Xinyuan Liang
- School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Jie Ren
- School of Artificial Intelligence, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541000, China
| | - Bo Han
- School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Jingping Liu
- School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Yeting Fan
- School of Public Administration, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Yinkang Zhou
- School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, China; Jiangsu Land Development and Consolidation Technology Engineering Center, Nanjing 210023, China
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
García-Reyes M, Thompson SA, Rogers-Bennett L, Sydeman WJ. Winter oceanographic conditions predict summer bull kelp canopy cover in northern California. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0267737. [PMID: 35511813 PMCID: PMC9070938 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2021] [Accepted: 04/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Bull kelp, Nereocystis luetkeana, is an iconic kelp forest species of the Northeast Pacific that provides a wide range of ecosystem services to coastal marine species and society. In northern California, U.S.A., Nereocystis abundance declined sharply in 2014 and has yet to recover. While abiotic and biotic stressors were present prior to 2014, the population collapse highlights the need for a better understanding of how environmental conditions impact Nereocystis. In this study, we used a newly-developed, satellite-based dataset of bull kelp abundance, proxied by canopy cover over 20 years, to test the hypothesis that winter oceanographic conditions determine summer Nereocystis canopy cover. For the years before the collapse (1991 through 2013), wintertime ocean conditions, synthesized in a Multivariate Ocean Climate Indicator (MOCI), were indeed a good predictor of summer Nereocystis canopy cover (R2 = 0.40 to 0.87). We attribute this relationship to the effects of upwelling and/or temperature on nutrient availability. South of Point Arena, California, winter ocean conditions had slightly lower explanatory power than north of Point Arena, also reflective of spring upwelling-driven nutrient entrainment. Results suggest that the Nereocystis gametophytes and/or early sporophytes are sensitive to winter oceanographic conditions. Furthermore, environmental conditions in winter 2014 could have been used to predict the Nereocystis collapse in summer 2014, and for kelp north of Point Arena, a further decline in 2015. Importantly, environmental models do not predict changes in kelp after 2015, suggesting biotic factors suppressed kelp recovery, most likely extreme sea urchin herbivory. Conditions during winter, a season that is often overlooked in studies of biophysical interactions, are useful for predicting summer Nereocystis kelp forest canopy cover, and will be useful in supporting kelp restoration actions in California and perhaps elsewhere in the world.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Laura Rogers-Bennett
- Coastal Marine Science Institute, Karen C. Drayer, Wildlife Health Center, UC Davis, Bodega Marine Lab, Bodega Bay, California, United States of America
- California Department Fish and Wildlife, Bodega Marine Lab, Bodega Bay, California, United States of America
| | - William J. Sydeman
- Farallon Institute, Petaluma, California, United States of America
- Bodega Marine Lab, UC Davis, Bodega Bay, California, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Ma S, Liu D, Tian Y, Fu C, Li J, Ju P, Sun P, Ye Z, Liu Y, Watanabe Y. Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:5310-5328. [PMID: 34309964 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15815] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2020] [Revised: 07/04/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Natural systems can undergo critical transitions, leading to substantial socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. "Ecological resilience" has been proposed to describe the capacity of natural systems to absorb external perturbation and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. However, the mere application of ecological resilience in theoretical research and the lack of quantitative approaches present considerable obstacles for predicting critical transitions and understanding their mechanisms. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in the Northwestern Pacific are characterized by great biodiversity and productivity, as well as remarkable warming in recent decades. However, no information is available on the critical transitions and ecological resilience of LMEs in response to warming. Therefore, we applied an integrated resilience assessment framework to fisheries catch data from seven LMEs covering a wide range of regions, from tropical to subarctic, in the Northwestern Pacific to identify critical transitions, assess ecological resilience, and reconstruct folded stability landscapes, with a specific focus on the effects of warming. The results provide evidence of the occurrence of critical transitions, with fold bifurcation and hysteresis in response to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the seven LMEs. In addition, these LMEs show similarities and synchronies in structure variations and critical transitions forced by warming. Both dramatic increases in SST and small fluctuations at the corresponding thresholds may trigger critical transitions. Ecological resilience decreases when approaching the tipping points and is repainted as the LMEs shift to alternative stable states with different resilient dynamics. Folded stability landscapes indicate that the responses of LMEs to warming are discontinuous, which may be caused by the reorganization of LMEs as their sensitivity to warming changes. Our study clarifies the nonlinear responses of LMEs to anthropogenic warming and provides examples of quantifying ecological resilience in empirical systems at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Shuyang Ma
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Dan Liu
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Yongjun Tian
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
- Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, China
| | - Caihong Fu
- Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, Canada
| | - Jianchao Li
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Peilong Ju
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Peng Sun
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Zhenjiang Ye
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Yang Liu
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
- Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, China
| | - Yoshiro Watanabe
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
- Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Möllmann C, Cormon X, Funk S, Otto SA, Schmidt JO, Schwermer H, Sguotti C, Voss R, Quaas M. Tipping point realized in cod fishery. Sci Rep 2021; 11:14259. [PMID: 34253825 PMCID: PMC8275682 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-93843-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2021] [Accepted: 07/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Christian Möllmann
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IMF), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Xochitl Cormon
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IMF), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Steffen Funk
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IMF), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Saskia A Otto
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IMF), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Jörn O Schmidt
- Center for Ocean and Society (CeOS), Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Kiel, Germany.,International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Heike Schwermer
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IMF), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany.,Center for Ocean and Society (CeOS), Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - Camilla Sguotti
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IMF), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Rudi Voss
- Center for Ocean and Society (CeOS), Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Kiel, Germany.,German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Martin Quaas
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Gold Z, Curd EE, Goodwin KD, Choi ES, Frable BW, Thompson AR, Walker HJ, Burton RS, Kacev D, Martz LD, Barber PH. Improving metabarcoding taxonomic assignment: A case study of fishes in a large marine ecosystem. Mol Ecol Resour 2021; 21:2546-2564. [PMID: 34235858 DOI: 10.1111/1755-0998.13450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2020] [Revised: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
DNA metabarcoding is an important tool for molecular ecology. However, its effectiveness hinges on the quality of reference sequence databases and classification parameters employed. Here we evaluate the performance of MiFish 12S taxonomic assignments using a case study of California Current Large Marine Ecosystem fishes to determine best practices for metabarcoding. Specifically, we use a taxonomy cross-validation by identity framework to compare classification performance between a global database comprised of all available sequences and a curated database that only includes sequences of fishes from the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. We demonstrate that the regional database provides higher assignment accuracy than the comprehensive global database. We also document a tradeoff between accuracy and misclassification across a range of taxonomic cutoff scores, highlighting the importance of parameter selection for taxonomic classification. Furthermore, we compared assignment accuracy with and without the inclusion of additionally generated reference sequences. To this end, we sequenced tissue from 597 species using the MiFish 12S primers, adding 252 species to GenBank's existing 550 California Current Large Marine Ecosystem fish sequences. We then compared species and reads identified from seawater environmental DNA samples using global databases with and without our generated references, and the regional database. The addition of new references allowed for the identification of 16 additional native taxa representing 17.0% of total reads from eDNA samples, including species with vast ecological and economic value. Together these results demonstrate the importance of comprehensive and curated reference databases for effective metabarcoding and the need for locus-specific validation efforts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zachary Gold
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Emily E Curd
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Kelly D Goodwin
- Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Stationed at Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Emma S Choi
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Benjamin W Frable
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Andrew R Thompson
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Harold J Walker
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Ronald S Burton
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Dovi Kacev
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Lucas D Martz
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Paul H Barber
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Thrush SF, Hewitt JE, Gladstone‐Gallagher RV, Savage C, Lundquist C, O’Meara T, Vieillard A, Hillman JR, Mangan S, Douglas EJ, Clark DE, Lohrer AM, Pilditch C. Cumulative stressors reduce the self-regulating capacity of coastal ecosystems. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02223. [PMID: 32869444 PMCID: PMC7816261 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/25/2019] [Revised: 06/09/2020] [Accepted: 06/29/2020] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Marine ecosystems are prone to tipping points, particularly in coastal zones where dramatic changes are associated with interactions between cumulative stressors (e.g., shellfish harvesting, eutrophication and sediment inputs) and ecosystem functions. A common feature of many degraded estuaries is elevated turbidity that reduces incident light to the seafloor, resulting from multiple factors including changes in sediment loading, sea-level rise and increased water column algal biomass. To determine whether cumulative effects of elevated turbidity may result in marked changes in the interactions between ecosystem components driving nutrient processing, we conducted a large-scale experiment manipulating sediment nitrogen concentrations in 15 estuaries across a national-scale gradient in incident light at the seafloor. We identified a threshold in incident light that was related to distinct changes in the ecosystem interaction networks (EIN) that drive nutrient processing. Above this threshold, network connectivity was high with clear mechanistic links to denitrification and the role of large shellfish in nitrogen processing. The EIN analyses revealed interacting stressors resulting in a decoupling of ecosystem processes in turbid estuaries with a lower capacity to denitrify and process nitrogen. This suggests that, as turbidity increases with sediment load, coastal areas can be more vulnerable to eutrophication. The identified interactions between light, nutrient processing and the abundance of large shellfish emphasizes the importance of actions that seek to manage multiple stressors and conserve or enhance shellfish abundance, rather than actions focusing on limiting a single stressor.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Simon F. Thrush
- Institute of Marine ScienceThe University of AucklandPrivate Bag 92019Auckland1142New Zealand
| | - Judi E. Hewitt
- Department of StatisticsThe University of AucklandPrivate Bag 92019Auckland1142New Zealand
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric ResearchPO Box 11‐115Hillcrest Hamilton3251New Zealand
| | - Rebecca V. Gladstone‐Gallagher
- Institute of Marine ScienceThe University of AucklandPrivate Bag 92019Auckland1142New Zealand
- School of ScienceUniversity of WaikatoPrivate Bag 3105Hamilton3240New Zealand
| | - Candida Savage
- Department of Marine ScienceUniversity of OtagoPO Box 56Dunedin9054New Zealand
- Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of Cape TownPrivate BagRondebosch7700South Africa
| | - Carolyn Lundquist
- Institute of Marine ScienceThe University of AucklandPrivate Bag 92019Auckland1142New Zealand
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric ResearchPO Box 11‐115Hillcrest Hamilton3251New Zealand
| | - Teri O’Meara
- Institute of Marine ScienceThe University of AucklandPrivate Bag 92019Auckland1142New Zealand
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center647 Contees Wharf RoadEdgewaterMaryland21037‐0028USA
| | - Amanda Vieillard
- Institute of Marine ScienceThe University of AucklandPrivate Bag 92019Auckland1142New Zealand
| | - Jenny R. Hillman
- Institute of Marine ScienceThe University of AucklandPrivate Bag 92019Auckland1142New Zealand
| | - Stephanie Mangan
- School of ScienceUniversity of WaikatoPrivate Bag 3105Hamilton3240New Zealand
| | - Emily J. Douglas
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric ResearchPO Box 11‐115Hillcrest Hamilton3251New Zealand
- School of ScienceUniversity of WaikatoPrivate Bag 3105Hamilton3240New Zealand
| | - Dana E. Clark
- School of ScienceUniversity of WaikatoPrivate Bag 3105Hamilton3240New Zealand
- Cawthron InstitutePrivate Bag 2Nelson,7042New Zealand
| | - Andrew M. Lohrer
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric ResearchPO Box 11‐115Hillcrest Hamilton3251New Zealand
| | - Conrad Pilditch
- School of ScienceUniversity of WaikatoPrivate Bag 3105Hamilton3240New Zealand
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Munsch SH, Andrews KS, Crozier LG, Fonner R, Gosselin JL, Greene CM, Harvey CJ, Lundin JI, Pess GR, Samhouri JF, Satterthwaite WH. Potential for ecological nonlinearities and thresholds to inform Pacific salmon management. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Stuart H. Munsch
- Ocean Associates, Under Contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
- Fish Ecology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - Kelly S. Andrews
- Conservation Biology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - Lisa G. Crozier
- Fish Ecology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - Robert Fonner
- Conservation Biology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - Jennifer L. Gosselin
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington98105USA
| | - Correigh M. Greene
- Fish Ecology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - Chris J. Harvey
- Conservation Biology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - Jessica I. Lundin
- National Research Council Research Associateship Program, Under contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - George R. Pess
- Fish Ecology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - Jameal F. Samhouri
- Conservation Biology Division Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle Washington98112USA
| | - William H. Satterthwaite
- Fisheries Ecology Division Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries ServiceNOAA 110 McAllister Way Santa Cruz California95060USA
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Holsman KK, Haynie AC, Hollowed AB, Reum JCP, Aydin K, Hermann AJ, Cheng W, Faig A, Ianelli JN, Kearney KA, Punt AE. Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4579. [PMID: 32917860 PMCID: PMC7486947 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075–2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1–2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change. Ecosystem Based Management measures developed to prevent overfishing could be particularly important under climate change. Here the authors combine climate and fish stock modelling to show that EBM cap implementation reduces climate-driven fishery declines under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 before midcentury. However, there are thermal tipping points beyond which potential collapses are predicted.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- K K Holsman
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA. .,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
| | - A C Haynie
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
| | - A B Hollowed
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - J C P Reum
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.,Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - K Aydin
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - A J Hermann
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, now Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.,Ocean Environment Research Division, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
| | - W Cheng
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, now Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.,Ocean Environment Research Division, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
| | - A Faig
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - J N Ianelli
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - K A Kearney
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.,Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, now Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - A E Punt
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Sultana J, Tibby J, Recknagel F, Maxwell S, Goonan P. Comparison of two commonly used methods for identifying water quality thresholds in freshwater ecosystems using field and synthetic data. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 724:137999. [PMID: 32408424 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137999] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2020] [Revised: 03/09/2020] [Accepted: 03/15/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Defining ecological thresholds has become increasingly relevant for water resource management. Despite the fact that there has been a rapid expansion in methods to evaluate ecological threshold responses to environmental stressors, evaluation of the relative benefits of various methods has received less attention. This study compares the performance of Gradient Forest (GF) and Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) for identifying water quality thresholds in both field and synthetic data. Analysis of 14 years of macroinvertebrates data from the Mediterranean catchments of the Torrens and Onkaparinga Rivers, South-Australia, identified electrical conductivity (EC) and total phosphorus (TP) as the most important water quality variables affecting macroinvertebrates. Water quality thresholds for macroinvertebrates identified by both methods largely corresponded at low EC (GF: 400-900 μS cm-1 vs. TITAN: 407-951 μScm-1), total phosphorus (TP) (GF: 0.02-0.18 mg L-1 vs. TITAN: 0.02-0.04 mg L-1) and total nitrogen (TN) (GF: 0.2 mg L-1 vs. TITAN: 0.28-0.67 mg L-1) concentrations. However, multiple GF-derived thresholds, particularly at high stressor concentrations, were representative of low data distribution, and thus need to be considered with caution. In another case study of South Australian diatom data, there were marked differences in GF and TITAN identified thresholds for EC (GF: 5000 μScm-1 vs. TITAN 1004-2440 μS cm-1) and TP (GF: 250-500 μg L-1 vs. TITAN: 11-329 μg L-1). These differences were due to the fact that while TITAN parsed species responses into negative and positive taxa, GF overestimated thresholds by aggregating the response of taxa that increase and decrease along environmental gradients. Given these findings, we also evaluated the methods' performance using different distributions of synthetic data i.e. with both skewed and uniform distribution of samples and species responses. Both methods identified similar change-points in the case of a uniform environmental gradient, except when species optima were simulated at centre of the gradient. Here GF detected the change-points but TITAN failed to do so. GF also outperformed TITAN when four simulated species change-points were present. Thus, the distribution of species responses and optima and the evenness of the environment gradient can affect the models' performance. This study has shown that both methods are robust in identifying change in species response but threshold identification differs depending both on the analysis used and the nature of ecological data. We recommend the careful application of GF and TITAN, noting these differences in performance, will improve their application for water resource management.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jawairia Sultana
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, North Terrace, Adelaide 5005, Australia.
| | - John Tibby
- Department of Geography, Environment and Population, The University of Adelaide, Australia; Sprigg Geobiology Centre, The University of Adelaide, North Terrace, Adelaide 5005, Australia
| | - Friedrich Recknagel
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, North Terrace, Adelaide 5005, Australia
| | - Sally Maxwell
- Department of Environment and Water, Waymouth Street, Adelaide 5000, Australia
| | - Peter Goonan
- South Australia Environment Protection Authority, Adelaide, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
van Putten I, Longo C, Arton A, Watson M, Anderson CM, Himes-Cornell A, Obregón C, Robinson L, van Steveninck T. Shifting focus: The impacts of sustainable seafood certification. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0233237. [PMID: 32433702 PMCID: PMC7239462 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0233237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2019] [Accepted: 04/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Alongside government driven management initiatives to achieve sustainable fisheries management, there remains a role for market-based mechanisms to improve fisheries outcomes. Market-based mechanisms are intended to create positive economic incentives that improve the status and management of fisheries. Research to understand consumer demand for certified fish is central but needs to be mirrored by supply side understanding including why fisheries decide to gain or retain certification and the impact of certification on them and other stakeholders involved. We apply semi-structured interviews in seven different Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certified fisheries that operate in (or from) Western Australia with the aim of better understanding fisheries sector participation in certification schemes (the supply side) and the impacts and unintended benefits and costs of certification. We find that any positive economic impacts of certification were only realised in a limited number of MSC fisheries in Western Australia, which may be explained by the fact that only a small proportion of Western Australian state-managed fisheries are sold with the MSC label and ex-vessel or consumer market price premiums are therefore mostly not obtained. Positive impacts of certification in these Western Australian fisheries are more of a social and institutional nature, for example, greater social acceptability and increased efficiency in the governance process respectively. However, opinion is divided on whether the combined non-monetary and monetary benefits outweigh the costs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ingrid van Putten
- CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Catherine Longo
- Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), Snow Hill, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ashleigh Arton
- Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), Snow Hill, London, United Kingdom
| | - Matt Watson
- Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), Marine Terrace, Fremantle, WA, Australia
| | - Christopher M. Anderson
- University of Washington, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | | | - Clara Obregón
- College of Science, Health, Engineering and Education, Harry Butler Institute, Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Australia
| | - Lucy Robinson
- CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
- Oceans Graduate School, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | | |
Collapse
|
15
|
The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:7665-7671. [PMID: 32205439 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1921266117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change is likely to change the relationships between commonly used climate indices and underlying patterns of climate variability, but this complexity is rarely considered in studies using climate indices. Here, we show that the physical and ecological conditions mapping onto the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index have changed over multidecadal timescales. These changes apparently began around a 1988/1989 North Pacific climate shift that was marked by abrupt northeast Pacific warming, declining temporal variance in the Aleutian Low (a leading atmospheric driver of the PDO), and increasing correlation between the PDO and NPGO patterns. Sea level pressure and surface temperature patterns associated with each climate index changed after 1988/1989, indicating that identical index values reflect different states of basin-scale climate over time. The PDO and NPGO also show time-dependent skill as indices of regional northeast Pacific ecosystem variability. Since the late 1980s, both indices have become less relevant to physical-ecological variability in regional ecosystems from the Bering Sea to the southern California Current. Users of these climate indices should be aware of nonstationary relationships with underlying climate variability within the historical record, and the potential for further nonstationarity with ongoing climate change.
Collapse
|
16
|
Furlan E, Slanzi D, Torresan S, Critto A, Marcomini A. Multi-scenario analysis in the Adriatic Sea: A GIS-based Bayesian network to support maritime spatial planning. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 703:134972. [PMID: 31759699 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134972] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2019] [Revised: 10/12/2019] [Accepted: 10/12/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Oceans are changing faster than even observed before. Unprecedented climate variability is interacting with long-term trends, all against a backdrop of rising anthropogenic use of marine space. The growth of maritime activities is taking place without the full understanding of complex interactions between natural and human-induced changes, leading to a progressive decline of biodiversity and degradation of marine ecosystems. Against this complex interplay, marine managers and policy makers are increasingly calling for new approaches and tools allowing a multi-scenario assessment of environmental impacts arising from the complex interaction between natural and anthropogenic drivers, also in consideration of multiple marine plans objectives. Responding to this need, for the Adriatic Sea we developed a GIS-based Bayesian Network to evaluate the probability (and related uncertainty) of cumulative impacts under four 'what-if' scenarios representing different marine management options and climate conditions. We addressed issues concerning consequences of potential planning measures, as well as management programmes required to achieve environmental status targets, as required by relevant EU acquis. Results from the scenario analysis highlighted that an integrated approach to maritime spatial planning is required, combining more sustainable management options of marine spaces and resources with climate adaptation strategies. This approach to planning would allow to reduce human pressures on the marine environment and rise resilience of natural ecosystems to climate and human-induced disturbances, which would result in an overall decrease of cumulative impacts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Elisa Furlan
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy
| | - Debora Slanzi
- European Centre for Living Technology (ECLT), Calle Crosera, Dorsoduro 3911, 30123 Venice, Italy; Department of Management, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Cannaregio 873, 30121 Venezia, Italy
| | - Silvia Torresan
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy
| | - Andrea Critto
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy.
| | - Antonio Marcomini
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Stock A, Haupt A, Mach M, Micheli F. Mapping ecological indicators of human impact with statistical and machine learning methods: Tests on the California coast. ECOL INFORM 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2018.07.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
|
18
|
Guo Q, Wan F. Complete synchronization of the global coupled dynamical network induced by Poisson noises. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0188632. [PMID: 29216214 PMCID: PMC5720815 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0188632] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2017] [Accepted: 11/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The different Poisson noise-induced complete synchronization of the global coupled dynamical network is investigated. Based on the stability theory of stochastic differential equations driven by Poisson process, we can prove that Poisson noises can induce synchronization and sufficient conditions are established to achieve complete synchronization with probability 1. Furthermore, numerical examples are provided to show the agreement between theoretical and numerical analysis.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qing Guo
- School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Fangyi Wan
- School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
- * E-mail:
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
Gosselin JL, Zabel RW, Anderson JJ, Faulkner JR, Baptista AM, Sandford BP. Conservation planning for freshwater-marine carryover effects on Chinook salmon survival. Ecol Evol 2017; 8:319-332. [PMID: 29321874 PMCID: PMC5756849 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2017] [Accepted: 11/03/2017] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Experiences of migratory species in one habitat may affect their survival in the next habitat, in what is known as carryover effects. These effects are especially relevant for understanding how freshwater experience affects survival in anadromous fishes. Here, we study the carryover effects of juvenile salmon passage through a hydropower system (Snake and Columbia rivers, northwestern United States). To reduce the direct effect of hydrosystem passage on juveniles, some fishes are transported through the hydrosystem in barges, while the others are allowed to migrate in-river. Although hydrosystem survival of transported fishes is greater than that of their run-of-river counterparts, their relative juvenile-to-adult survival (hereafter survival) can be less. We tested for carryover effects using generalized linear mixed effects models of survival with over 1 million tagged Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum) (Salmonidae), migrating in 1999-2013. Carryover effects were identified with rear-type (wild vs. hatchery), passage-type (run-of-river vs. transported), and freshwater and marine covariates. Importantly, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index characterizing cool/warm (i.e., productive/nonproductive) ocean phases had a strong influence on the relative survival of rear- and passage-types. Specifically, transportation benefited wild Chinook salmon more in cool PDO years, while hatchery counterparts benefited more in warm PDO years. Transportation was detrimental for wild Chinook salmon migrating early in the season, but beneficial for later season migrants. Hatchery counterparts benefited from transportation throughout the season. Altogether, wild fish could benefit from transportation approximately 2 weeks earlier during cool PDO years, with still a benefit to hatchery counterparts. Furthermore, we found some support for hypotheses related to higher survival with increased river flow, high predation in the estuary and plume areas, and faster migration and development-related increased survival with temperature. Thus, pre- and within-season information on local- and broad-scale conditions across habitats can be useful for planning and implementing real-time conservation programs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer L Gosselin
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA
| | - Richard W Zabel
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Seattle WA USA
| | - James J Anderson
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA
| | - James R Faulkner
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Seattle WA USA
| | | | - Benjamin P Sandford
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pasco WA USA
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Abrahms B, Hazen EL, Bograd SJ, Brashares JS, Robinson PW, Scales KL, Crocker DE, Costa DP. Climate mediates the success of migration strategies in a marine predator. Ecol Lett 2017; 21:63-71. [PMID: 29096419 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2017] [Revised: 06/30/2017] [Accepted: 09/25/2017] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Individual behavioural specialisation has far-reaching effects on fitness and population persistence. Theory predicts that unconditional site fidelity, that is fidelity to a site independent of past outcome, provides a fitness advantage in unpredictable environments. However, the benefits of alternative site fidelity strategies driving intraspecific variation remain poorly understood and have not been evaluated in different environmental contexts. We show that contrary to expectation, strong and weak site fidelity strategies in migratory northern elephant seals performed similarly over 10 years, but the success of each strategy varied interannually and was strongly mediated by climate conditions. Strong fidelity facilitated stable energetic rewards and low risk, while weak fidelity facilitated high rewards and high risk. Weak fidelity outperformed strong fidelity in anomalous climate conditions, suggesting that the evolutionary benefits of site fidelity may be upended by increasing environmental variability. We highlight how individual behavioural specialisation may modulate the adaptive capacity of species to climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Briana Abrahms
- NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, 99 Pacific St. #255A, Monterey, CA, 93940, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 115 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA
| | - Elliott L Hazen
- NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, 99 Pacific St. #255A, Monterey, CA, 93940, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 115 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA
| | - Steven J Bograd
- NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, 99 Pacific St. #255A, Monterey, CA, 93940, USA
| | - Justin S Brashares
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California Berkeley, 130 Mulford Hall #3114, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Patrick W Robinson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 115 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA
| | - Kylie L Scales
- University of the Sunshine Coast, 90 Sippy Downs Drive, Sippy Downs, Qld, Australia
| | - Daniel E Crocker
- Department of Biology, Sonoma State University, 1801 East Cotati Avenue, Rohnert Park, CA, 94928, USA
| | - Daniel P Costa
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 115 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA
| |
Collapse
|