Grasshopper phenological responses to climate gradients, variability, and change

How Climate Warming Influences the Phenology of Grapholita molesta (Busck, 1916) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in China: Insight from Long-Term Historical Data

Grapholita molesta (Busck, 1916), a significant pest affecting various fruits such as pears, apples, peaches, etc., is highly adaptable to changing temperatures. However, the phenological response mechanism of this pest to climate warming remains unclear. To address this issue, we collected population dynamics data of G. molesta in China over the years along with corresponding climate data. We analyzed five phenological indexes: the first, end, and peak occurrence dates of contemporary adults as well as the first and peak occurrence dates of overwintering adults in China. Results revealed an upward trend in the annual average temperature and average temperature of the four seasons in regions infested by G. molesta in eastern, northeastern, northwestern, northern, and southwestern China from 1980 to 2020. Notably, the population peak date of overwintering adults in northeastern and eastern China significantly advanced along with the first occurrence date and the population peak date of overwintering adults in northern China. Additionally, the population peak date of contemporary adults in northwestern China significantly advanced. However, the end occurrence date of contemporary adults in northern China was significantly delayed, as was the first occurrence date of overwintering adults in northwestern China. Furthermore, our study demonstrated spatial heterogeneity in the phenological response of G. molesta to climate warming across China. This study elucidates the phenological response of G. molesta to climate warming, offering valuable insights for predicting future pest infestations and informing adaptive pest management strategies in fruit tree cultivation.

Study on the prediction method of grasshopper occurrence risk in Inner Mongolia based on the maximum entropy model during the growing period

Grasshoppers represent a significant biological challenge in Inner Mongolia's grasslands, severely affecting the region's animal husbandry. Thus, dynamic monitoring of grasshopper infestation risk is crucial for sustainable livestock farming. This study employed the Maxent model, along with remote sensing data, to forecast Oedaleus decorus asiaticus occurrence during the growing season, using grasshopper suitability habitats as a base. The Maxent model's predictive accuracy was high, with an AUC of 0.966. The most influential environmental variables for grasshopper distribution were suitable habitat data (34.27%), the temperature-vegetation dryness index during the spawning period (18.81%), and various other meteorological and vegetation factors. The risk index model was applied to calculate the grasshopper distribution across different risk levels for the years 2019-2022. The data indicated that the level 1 risk area primarily spans central, eastern, and southwestern Inner Mongolia. By examining the variable weights, the primary drivers of risk level fluctuation from 2019 to 2022 were identified as accumulated precipitation and land surface temperature anomalies during the overwintering period. This study offers valuable insights for future O. decorus asiaticus monitoring in Inner Mongolia.

Upward and Poleward (but Not Phenological) Shifts in a Forest Tenebrionid Beetle in Response to Global Change in a Mediterranean Area

There is an increasing volume of literature on the impact of climate change on insects. However, there is an urgent need for more empirical research on underrepresented groups in key areas, including species for which the effects of climatic change may seem less evident. The present paper illustrates the results of a study on a common forest tenebrionid beetle, Accanthopus velikensis (Piller and Mitterpacher, 1783), at a regional scale within the Mediterranean basin. Using a large set of records from Latium (central Italy), changes in the median values of elevation, latitude, longitude, and phenology between two periods (1900-1980 vs. 1981-2022) were tested. Records of A. velikensis in the period 1981-2022 showed median values of elevation and latitude higher than those recorded in the first period. Thus, in response to rising temperatures, the species became more frequent at higher elevation and in northern places. By contrast, A. velikensis does not seem to have changed its activity pattern in response to increased temperatures, but this might be an artifact due to the inclusion of likely overwintering individuals. The results obtained for A. velikensis indicate that even thermally euryoecious species can show changes in their elevational and latitudinal distribution, and that poleward shifts can be apparent even within a small latitudinal gradient.

Community change and population outbreak of grasshoppers driven by climate change

The response of insects to climate changes in various aspects has been well-documented. However, there is a dearth of comprehensive review specifically focusing on the response and adaptation of grasshoppers, which are important primary consumers and pests in grassland and agricultural ecosystems. The coexistence of grasshopper species forms diverse communities and coherent groups in spatial-temporal scales. It makes them excellent models for studying the interplay of phenology, dispersal, trophic relationship, and population dynamics, all influenced by climate changes. Certain grasshopper species have adapted to climate change through mechanisms such as diapause. Here, we delve into grasshopper community changes, their adaptive strategies, and population outbreaks in response to climate change and land use. By serving as ecological indicators, grasshoppers offer valuable insights for monitoring climatic and environmental shifts. Last, this review puts forth several future directions for comprehending the population dynamics of insects in the context of climate change.

Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change

Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation in Habitat Suitability for Oedaleus decorus asiaticus Bei-Bienko on the Mongolian Plateau Using Maxent and Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

O. decorus asiaticus is a major grasshopper species that harms the development of agriculture on the Mongolian Plateau. Therefore, it is important to enhance the monitoring of O. decorus asiaticus. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation in the habitat suitability for O. decorus asiaticus on the Mongolian Plateau was assessed using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling along with multi-source remote sensing data (meteorology, vegetation, soil, and topography). The predictions of the Maxent model were accurate (AUC = 0.910). The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of grasshoppers and their contribution were grass type (51.3%), accumulated precipitation (24.9%), altitude (13.0%), vegetation coverage (6.6%), and land surface temperature (4.2%). Based on the assessment results of suitability by Maxent model, the model threshold settings, and the formula for calculating the inhabitability index, the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s inhabitable areas were calculated. The results show that the distribution of suitable habitat for O. decorus asiaticus in 2000 was similar to that in 2010. From 2010 to 2020, the suitability of the habitat for O. decorus asiaticus in the central region of the Mongolian Plateau changed from moderate to high. The main factor contributing to this change was accumulated precipitation. Few changes in the areas of the habitat with low suitability were observed across the study period. The results of this study enhance our understanding of the vulnerability of different regions on the Mongolian Plateau to plagues of O. decorus asiaticus and will aid the monitoring of grasshopper plagues in this region.

Temperature-sensitive development shapes insect phenological responses to climate change

Phenological shifts vary within and among insect species and locations based on exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Shifts in environmental conditions and seasonal constraints along elevation and latitudinal gradients can select for differences in temperature sensitivity that generate differential phenological shifts. I examine the phenological implications of observed variation in developmental traits. Coupling physiological and ecological insight to link the environmental sensitivity of development to phenology and fitness offers promise in understanding variable phenological responses to climate change and their community and ecosystem implications. A key challenge in establishing these linkages is extrapolating controlled, laboratory experiments to temporally variable, natural environments. New lab and field experiments that incorporate realistic environmental variation are needed to test the extrapolations. Establishing the linkages can aid understanding and anticipating impacts of climate change on insects.

Aggressive behaviour in the skyhoppers of the Australian Alps

The evolution of male-male aggression is of interest because at its extreme it can be very energetically costly, leave males vulnerable to preadtors, and give rise to weaponry such as exaggerated traits. In grasshoppers (Acrididae), one group stands out as exceptionally aggressive, the skyhoppers (Kosciuscola) in which males bite, kick, mandible flare, and wrestle each other for access to females or when females are laying eggs. In this study we asked whether there is variation in aggressive behaviour among four skyhopper species and aimed to determine whether the traits used in fighting bear signatures of sexual selection in their size, variability, and allometric scaling. We found clear differences in the numbers and types of aggressive behaviours among species. Kosciuscola tristis and K. usitatus were the most aggressive, K. cognatus was the least aggressive, and K. tristis was the only species that performed the ‘mandible flare’ behaviour. Mandible size was larger among the three species that showed aggressive behaviour, all except K. cognatus, and was negatively allometric for all species possibly suggesting a functional size constraint. Pronotum size was different among most species and K. tristis’ pronotum was the largest and borderline positively allometric perhaps suggesting that pronotum size is related to aggressive behaviour but the nature of that relationship remains obscured. Our study suggests that further work investigates skyhoppers’ aggressive behaviour and how it varies with ecology, and paves the way for establishing them as a model system in the evolution of aggressive behaviour.

Phenology dictates the impact of climate change on geographic distributions of six co-occurring North American grasshoppers

Throughout the last century, climate change has altered the geographic distributions of many species. Insects, in particular, vary in their ability to track changing climates, and it is likely that phenology is an important determinant of how well insects can either expand or shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change. Grasshoppers are an ideal group to test the hypothesis that phenology correlates with range expansion, given that co-occurring confamilial, and even congeneric, species can differ in phenology. Here, I tested the hypothesis that early- and late-season species should possess different range expansion potentials, as estimated by habitat suitability from ecological niche models. I used nine different modeling techniques to estimate habitat suitability of six grasshopper species of varying phenology under two climate scenarios for the year 2050. My results suggest that, of the six species examined here, early-season species were more sensitive to climate change than late-season species. The three early-season species examined here might shift northward during the spring, while the modeled geographic distributions of the three late-season species were generally constant under climate change, likely because they were pre-adapted to hot and dry conditions. Phenology might therefore be a good predictor of how insect distributions might change in the future, but this hypothesis remains to be tested at a broader scale.

High-Elevation Populations of Montane Grasshoppers Exhibit Greater Developmental Plasticity in Response to Seasonal Cues

Populations of insects can differ in how sensitive their development, growth, and performance are to environmental conditions such as temperature and daylength. The environmental sensitivity of development can alter phenology (seasonal timing) and ecology. Warming accelerates development of most populations. However, high-elevation and season-limited populations can exhibit developmental plasticity to either advance or prolong development depending on conditions. We examine how diurnal temperature variation and daylength interact to shape growth, development, and performance of several populations of the montane grasshopper, Melanoplus boulderensis, along an elevation gradient. We then compare these experimental results to observed patterns of development in the field. Although populations exhibited similar thermal sensitivities of development under long-day conditions, development of high-elevation populations was more sensitive to temperature under short-day conditions. This developmental plasticity resulted in rapid development of high elevation populations in short-day conditions with high temperature variability, consistent with their observed capacity for rapid development in the field when conditions are permissive early in the season. Notably, accelerated development generally did not decrease body size or alter body shape. Developmental conditions did not strongly influence thermal tolerance but altered the temperature dependence of performance in difficult-to-predict ways. In sum, the high-elevation and season-limited populations exhibited developmental plasticity that enables advancing or prolonging development consistent with field phenology. Our results suggest these patterns are driven by the thermal sensitivity of development increasing when days are short early in the season compared to when days are long later in the season. Developmental plasticity will shape phenological responses to climate change with potential implications for community and ecosystem structure.

Climate change and elevational range shifts in insects

On mountains, unique in their steep and rapid climatic gradients, many insects are shifting their elevational range limits to track recent temperature change. In a review of the range shift literature to date, most of the 1478 montane insect populations tested so far are shifting to higher elevations, but there is conspicuous variation in the responses. We discuss the impact of study methodology as well as potential abiotic and biotic factors that may underlie this variation in climate change response. We encourage more empirical studies spanning greater insect biodiversity and directly testing how variation in species' traits, biogeography, and abiotic-biotic context shapes variation in range shift responses.

Grasshopper species' seasonal timing underlies shifts in phenological overlap in response to climate gradients, variability and change

Species with different life histories and communities that vary in their seasonal constraints tend to shift their phenology (seasonal timing) differentially in response to climate warming. We investigate how these variable phenological shifts aggregate to influence phenological overlap within communities. Phenological advancements of later season species and extended durations of early season species may increase phenological overlap, with implications for species' interactions such as resource competition. We leverage extensive historic (1958-1960) and recent (2006-2015) weekly survey data for communities of grasshoppers along a montane elevation gradient to assess the impact of climate on shifts in the phenology and abundance distributions of species. We then examine how these responses are influenced by the seasonal timing of species and elevation, and how in aggregate they influence degrees of phenological overlap within communities. In warmer years, abundance distributions shift earlier in the season and become broader. Total abundance responds variably among species and we do not detect a significant response across species. Shifts in abundance distributions are not strongly shaped by species' seasonal timing or sites of variable elevations. The area of phenological overlap increases in warmer years due to shifts in the relative seasonal timing of compared species. Species that overwinter as nymphs increasingly overlap with later season species that advance their phenology. The days of phenological overlap also increase in warm years but the response varies across sites of variable elevation. Our phenological overlap metric based on comparing single events-the dates of peak abundance-does not shift significantly with warming. Phenological shifts are more complex than shifts in single dates such as first occurrence. As abundance distributions shift earlier and become broader in warm years, phenological overlap increases. Our analysis suggests that overall grasshopper abundance is relatively robust to climate and associated phenological shifts but we find that increased overlap can decrease abundance, potentially by strengthening species interactions such as resource competition.

Weather variation affects the dispersal of grasshoppers beyond their elevational ranges

Understanding how abiotic conditions influence dispersal patterns of organisms is important for understanding the degree to which species can track and persist in the face of changing climate.The goal of this study was to understand how weather conditions influence the dispersal pattern of multiple nonmigratory grasshopper species from lower elevation grassland habitats in which they complete their life-cycles to higher elevations that extend beyond their range limits.Using over a decade of weekly spring to late-summer field survey data along an elevational gradient, we explored how abundance and richness of dispersing grasshoppers were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and wind speed and direction. We also examined how changes in population sizes at lower elevations might influence these patterns.We observed that the abundance of dispersing grasshoppers along the gradient declined 4-fold from the foothills to the subalpine and increased with warmer conditions and when wind flow patterns were mild or in the downslope direction. Thirty-eight unique grasshopper species from lowland sites were detected as dispersers across the survey years, and warmer years and weak upslope wind conditions also increased the richness of these grasshoppers. The pattern of grasshoppers along the gradient was not sex biased. The positive effect of temperature on dispersal rates was likely explained by an increase in dispersal propensity rather than by an increase in the density of grasshoppers at low elevation sites.The results of this study support the hypothesis that the dispersal patterns of organisms are influenced by changing climatic conditions themselves and as such, that this context-dependent dispersal response should be considered when modeling and forecasting the ability of species to respond to climate change.

Do different rates of gene flow underlie variation in phenotypic and phenological clines in a montane grasshopper community?

Species responses to environmental change are likely to depend on existing genetic and phenotypic variation, as well as evolutionary potential. A key challenge is to determine whether gene flow might facilitate or impede genomic divergence among populations responding to environmental change, and if emergent phenotypic variation is dependent on gene flow rates. A general expectation is that patterns of genetic differentiation in a set of codistributed species reflect differences in dispersal ability. In less dispersive species, we predict greater genetic divergence and reduced gene flow. This could lead to covariation in life-history traits due to local adaptation, although plasticity or drift could mirror these patterns. We compare genome-wide patterns of genetic structure in four phenotypically variable grasshopper species along a steep elevation gradient near Boulder, Colorado, and test the hypothesis that genomic differentiation is greater in short-winged grasshopper species, and statistically associated with variation in growth, reproductive, and physiological traits along this gradient. In addition, we estimate rates of gene flow under competing demographic models, as well as potential gene flow through surveys of phenological overlap among populations within a species. All species exhibit genetic structure along the elevation gradient and limited gene flow. The most pronounced genetic divergence appears in short-winged (less dispersive) species, which also exhibit less phenological overlap among populations. A high-elevation population of the most widespread species, Melanoplus sanguinipes, appears to be a sink population derived from low elevation populations. While dispersal ability has a clear connection to the genetic structure in different species, genetic distance does not predict growth, reproductive, or physiological trait variation in any species, requiring further investigation to clearly link phenotypic divergence to local adaptation.