Can internal range structure predict range shifts?

Poleward and uphill range shifts are a common-but variable-response to climate change. We lack understanding regarding this interspecific variation; for example, functional traits show weak or mixed ability to predict range shifts. Characteristics of species' ranges may enhance prediction of range shifts. However, the explanatory power of many range characteristics-especially within-range abundance patterns-remains untested. Here, we introduce a hypothesis framework for predicting range-limit population trends and range shifts from the internal structure of the geographic range, specifically range edge hardness, defined as abundance within range edges relative to the whole range. The inertia hypothesis predicts that high edge abundance facilitates expansions along the leading range edge but creates inertia (either more individuals must disperse or perish) at the trailing range edge such that the trailing edge recedes slowly. In contrast, the limitation hypothesis suggests that hard range edges are the signature of strong limits (e.g. biotic interactions) that force faster contraction of the trailing edge but block expansions at the leading edge of the range. Using a long-term avian monitoring dataset from northern Minnesota, USA, we estimated population trends for 35 trailing-edge species and 18 leading-edge species and modelled their population trends as a function of range edge hardness derived from eBird data. We found limited evidence of associations between range edge hardness and range-limit population trends. Trailing-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be declining, demonstrating weak support for the limitation hypothesis. In contrast, leading-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be increasing, demonstrating weak support for the inertia hypothesis. These opposing results for the leading and trailing range edges might suggest that different mechanisms underpin range expansions and contractions, respectively. As data and state-of-the-art modelling efforts continue to proliferate, we will be ever better equipped to map abundance patterns within species' ranges, offering opportunities to anticipate range shifts through the lens of the geographic range.

Riding the wetland wave: Can ducks locate macroinvertebrate resources across the breeding season?

Food availability varies considerably over space and time in wetland systems, and consumers must be able to track those changes during energetically-demanding points in the life cycle like breeding. Resource tracking has been studied frequently among herbivores, but receives less attention among consumers of macroinvertebrates. We evaluated the change in resource availability across habitat types and time and the simultaneous density of waterfowl consumers throughout their breeding season in a high-elevation, flood-irrigated system. We also assessed whether the macroinvertebrate resource density better predicted waterfowl density across habitats, compared to consistency (i.e., temporal evenness) of the invertebrate resource or taxonomic richness. Resource density varied marginally across wetland types but was highest in basin wetlands (i.e., ponds) and peaked early in the breeding season, whereas it remained relatively low and stable in other wetland habitats. Breeding duck density was positively related to resource density, more so than temporal resource stability, for all species. Resource density was negatively related to duckling density, however. These results have the potential to not only elucidate mechanisms of habitat selection among breeding ducks in flood-irrigated landscapes but also suggest there is not a consequential trade-off to selecting wetland sites based on energy density versus temporal resource stability and that good-quality wetland sites provide both.

Mathematical characterization of dose uncertainty effects on functions summarizing findings of community noise attitudinal surveys

Previous Monte Carlo simulations have quantified the extent to which dose (sound level) uncertainty in community noise dose-response surveys can bias the shape of inferred dose-response functions. The present work extends the prior findings to create a mathematical model of the biasing effect. The exact effect on any particular data set depends on additional attributes (situational variables) beyond dose uncertainty itself. Several variables and their interaction effects are accounted for in the model. The model produced identical results to the prior Monte Carlo simulations and thereby demonstrated the same slope reduction effect. This model was further exercised to demonstrate the nature and extent of situational variable interaction effects related to the range of doses employed and their distribution across the range. One manifestation was a false asymptotic behavior in the observed dose-response relationship. The mathematical model provides a means to not only predict dose uncertainty effects but also to serve as a foundation for correcting for such effects in regression analyses of transportation noise dose-response relationships.

Rapid Assessment of Habitat Quality for Nonbreeding Ducks in Northeast Colorado

The ability to assess habitat quality for wildlife is important for evaluating the effectiveness of, or need for, habitat management. Habitat assessment methods generally involve a tradeoff between usability and explanatory power and finding the optimal balance can be challenging. In 2013, Colorado Parks and Wildlife developed a habitat quality rapid assessment method for dabbling ducks (Anatidae) that field personnel used to evaluate wetland management projects. The assessment involves six multiple-choice questions related to vegetation and wetland structure and is designed to be used by people with little wetland ecology training. I tested the ability of the assessment to predict duck density and food availability at 44 sites in northeastern Colorado. I found that the procedure explained 10–22% of the variability in food availability and was not a good predictor of duck density. By altering the grouping of answers as well as the weight of each question, score associated with each answer, and substituting a new question relating to percentage of coverage of duck food–producing plants, the ability of the assessment to explain food availability increased to 30%. Overall, the assessment may be sufficient for relative indication of habitat quality, but if wildlife managers desire precise predictions, further refinement is necessary.