Non-linear shift from grassland to shrubland in temperate barrier islands

Modeling the interaction of vegetation and sea level rise on barrier island evolution

Barrier islands provide a first line of defense against ocean flooding and storm surge. Biogeomorphic interactions are recognized as important in coastal system processes, but current barrier island models are primarily dominated by physical processes. Recent research has demonstrated different biogeomorphic states that influence response to sea level rise and other disturbance. Building on this understanding, we present a cellular model utilizing biotic and abiotic processes and their interactions for barrier island evolution. Using the literature and field derived parameters, we model barrier island evolution and compare to three decades of change for Smith Island, a Virginia Coast Reserve barrier island. We conduct simulations that show the impact of biogeomorphic states on island migration under different sea level rise scenarios. We find that migration is highest in areas with low topography and light vegetation cover (i.e. disturbance reinforcing) compared to areas with greater topographic complexity and high cover of woody vegetation i.e. disturbance resisting). This study demonstrates the importance of biogeomorphic interactions for barrier island evolution with sea level rise and will aid future predictions for these important ecosystems with climate change.

Drivers of dune formation control ecosystem function and response to disturbance in a barrier island system

Barrier islands are landscape features that protect coastlines by reducing wave energy and erosion. Quantifying vegetation-topographic interactions between adjacent habitats are essential for predicting long-term island response and resilience to sea-level rise and disturbance. To understand the effects of dune dynamics on adjacent interior island ecosystem processes, we quantified how sediment availability and previous disturbance regime interact with vegetation to influence dune building and ease of seawater and sediment movement into the island interior on two US mid-Atlantic coast barrier islands. We conducted field surveys of sediment accretion, vegetative cover, and soil characteristics in dune and swale habitats. Digital elevation models provided assessment of water flow resistance from the mean high water mark into the island interior. We found that geographic location impacted sediment accretion rates and Panicum amarum (a species increasing in abundance over time in the Virginia barrier islands) accreted sediment at a significantly lower rate compared to other dune grasses. Dune elevation impacted the ease of seawater flow into the island interior, altering soil chlorides, annual net primary productivity, and soil carbon and nitrogen. Our work demonstrates the importance of incorporating biological processes and cross-island connectivity into future scenario modeling and predictions of rising sea-levels and increased disturbance.

Habitat Classification Predictions on an Undeveloped Barrier Island Using a GIS-Based Landscape Modeling Approach

Landscape models are essential tools that link landscape patterns to ecological processes. Barrier island vegetation communities are strongly correlated with geomorphology, which makes elevation-based metrics suitable for developing a predictive habitat classification model in these systems. In this study, multinomial logistic regression is used to predict herbaceous, sparse, and woody habitat distributions on the North End of Assateague Island from slope, distance to shore, and elevation change, all of which are derived from digital elevation models (DEMs). Sparse habitats, which were generally found closest to shore in areas that are exposed to harsh conditions, had the highest predictive accuracy. Herbaceous and woody habitats occupied more protected inland settings and had lower predictive accuracies. A majority of woody cells were misclassified as herbaceous likely because of the similarity in the predictive parameter distributions. This relatively simple model is transparent and does not rely on subjective interpretations. This makes it an effective tool that can directly aid practitioners making coastal management decisions surrounding storm response planning and conservation management. The model results were used in a nutrient sequestration application to quantify carbon and nitrogen stored in barrier island vegetation. This represents an example of how the model results can be used to assign economic value of ecosystem services in a coastal system to justify different management and conservation initiatives.

Disturbance structures canopy and understory productivity along an environmental gradient

Disturbances often disproportionately impact different vegetation layers in forests and other vertically stratified ecosystems, shaping community structure and ecosystem function. However, disturbance-driven changes may be mediated by environmental conditions that affect habitat quality and species interactions. In a decade-long field experiment, we tested how kelp forest net primary productivity (NPP) responds to repeated canopy loss along a gradient in grazing and substrate suitability. We discovered that habitat quality can mediate the effects of intensified disturbance on canopy and understory NPP. Experimental annual and quarterly disturbances suppressed total macroalgal NPP, but effects were strongest in high-quality habitats that supported dense kelp canopies that were removed by disturbance. Understory macroalgae partly compensated for canopy NPP losses and this effect magnified with increasing habitat quality. Disturbance-driven increases in understory NPP were still rising after 5-10 years of disturbance, demonstrating the value of long-term experimentation for understanding ecosystem responses to changing disturbance regimes.

Microclimate feedbacks sustain power law clustering of encroaching coastal woody vegetation

The spatial pattern of vegetation patchiness may follow universal characteristic rules when the system is close to critical transitions between alternative states, which improves the anticipation of ecosystem-level state changes which are currently difficult to detect in real systems. However, the spatial patterning of vegetation patches in temperature-driven ecosystems have not been investigated yet. Here, using high-resolution imagery from 1972 to 2013 and a stochastic cellular automata model, we show that in a North American coastal ecosystem where woody plant encroachment has been happening, the size distribution of woody patches follows a power law when the system approaches a critical transition, which is sustained by the local positive feedbacks between vegetation and the surrounding microclimate. Therefore, the observed power law distribution of woody vegetation patchiness may be suggestive of critical transitions associated with temperature-driven woody plant encroachment in coastal and potentially other ecosystems.

Huang et al. use satellite imagery spanning over 40 years to investigate the spatial patterning of vegetation patches in a North American coastal ecosystem. They find that woody plant encroachment follows a power law when approaching critical transition points, which may inform future ecological monitoring of coastal systems.

Critical transition to woody plant dominance through microclimate feedbacks in North American coastal ecosystems

Climate warming is facilitating the expansion of many cold-sensitive woody species in woodland-grassland ecotones worldwide. Recent research has demonstrated that this range expansion can be further enhanced by positive vegetation-microclimate feedbacks whereby woody canopies induce local nocturnal warming, which reduces freeze-induced damage and favors the establishment of woody plants. However, this local positive feedback can be counteracted by biotic drivers such as browsing and the associated consumption of shrub biomass. The joint effects of large-scale climate warming and local-scale microclimate feedbacks on woody vegetation dynamics in these ecotones remain poorly understood. Here, we used a combination of experimental and modeling approaches to investigate the effects of woody cover on microclimate and the consequent implications on ecological stability in North American coastal ecosystems. We found greater browsing pressure and significant warming (~2°C) beneath shrub canopies compared to adjacent grasslands, which reduces shrub seedlings' exposure to cold damage. Cold sensitivity is evidenced by the significant decline in xylem hydraulic conductivity in shrub seedlings when temperatures dropped below -2°C. Despite the negative browsing-vegetation feedback, a small increase in minimum temperature can induce critical transitions from grass to woody plant dominance. Our framework also predicts the threshold temperature of -7°C for mangrove-salt marsh ecotones on the Atlantic coast of Florida. Above this reference temperature a critical transition may occur from salt marsh to mangrove vegetation, in agreement with empirical studies. Thus, the interaction between ongoing global warming trends and microclimate feedbacks may significantly alter woody vegetation dynamics and ecological stability in coastal ecosystems where woody plant expansion is primarily constrained by extreme low temperature events.

Decreased temperature variance associated with biotic composition enhances coastal shrub encroachment

Regime shift from grasslands to shrub-dominated landscapes occur worldwide driven by altered land-use and climate change, affecting landscape function, biodiversity, and productivity. Warming winter temperatures are a main driver of expansion of the native, evergreen shrub, Morella cerifera, in coastal landscapes. Shrub establishment in these habitats alters microclimate, but little is known about seasonal differences and microclimate variance. We assessed influence of shrubs on microclimate variance, community composition, and community physiological functioning across three vegetation zones: grass, transitional, and shrub in a coastal grassland. Using a novel application of a time-series analysis, we interpret microclimatic variance modification and elucidate mechanisms of shrub encroachment at the Virginia Coast Reserve, Long-Term Ecological Research site. As shrub thickets form, diversity is reduced with little grass/forb cover, while transpiration and annual productivity increase. Shrub thickets significantly reduced temperature variance with a positive influence of one day on the next in maximum air, minimum air, and maximum ground temperature. We also show that microclimatic temperature moderation reduces summer extreme temperatures in transition areas, even before coalescence into full thickets. Encroachment of Morella cerifera on the Virginia barrier islands is driven by reduced local exposure to cold temperatures and enhanced by abiotic microclimatic modification and biotic physiological functioning. This shift in plant community composition from grassland to shrub thicket alters the role of barrier islands in productivity and can have impacts on the natural resilience of the islands.

Critical Transitions in Plant-Pollinator Systems Induced by Positive Inbreeding-Reward-Pollinator Feedbacks

In many regions of the world pollinator populations are rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to disrupt major ecosystem functions and services. These changes in pollinator abundance may be prone to critical transitions with abrupt shifts to a state strongly depleted both in pollinator and vegetation abundance. Here we develop a process-based model to investigate the effect of a positive pollinator-vegetation feedback, whereby an initial decline in plant density increases selfing thereby reducing floral resources and negatively affecting pollinators. We show that a decline in resource availability and an increase in disturbance intensity can induce an abrupt shift in vegetation and pollinator dynamics and potentially lead to the collapse of plant-pollinator systems. Thus, endogenous feedbacks can induce strong non-linearities in plant-pollinator dynamics, making them vulnerable to critical transitions to a state depleted of both plants and pollinators in response to resource deficiency and natural or anthropogenic disturbance.

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Increased selfing in plants reduces nectar quality and pollinator visitation

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Bistability can emerge from endogenous positive pollinator-vegetation feedbacks

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Plant-pollinator dynamics may exhibit critical transitions under global change

The gathering storm: optimizing management of coastal ecosystems in the face of a climate-driven threat

BACKGROUND

The combination of rising sea levels and increased likelihood of extreme storm events poses a major threat to our coastlines and as a result, many ecosystems recognized and valued for their important contribution to coastal defence face increased damage from erosion and flooding. Nevertheless, only recently have we begun to examine how plant species and communities, respond to, and recover from, the many disturbances associated with storm events.

SCOPE

We review how the threats posed by a combination of sea level rise and storms affects coastal sub-, inter- and supra-tidal plant communities. We consider ecophysiological impacts at the level of the individual plant, but also how ecological interactions at the community level, and responses at landscape scale, inform our understanding of how and why an increasing frequency and intensity of storm damage are vital to effective coastal management. While noting how research is centred on the impact of hurricanes in the US Gulf region, we take a global perspective and consider how ecosystems worldwide (e.g. seagrass, kelp forests, sand dunes, saltmarsh and mangroves) respond to storm damage and contribute to coastal defence.

CONCLUSIONS

The threats posed by storms to coastal plant communities are undoubtedly severe, but, beyond this obvious conclusion, we highlight four research priority areas. These call for studies focusing on (1) how storm disturbance affects plant reproduction and recruitment; (2) plant response to the multiple stressors associated with anthropogenic climate change and storm events; (3) the role of ecosystem-level interactions in dictating post-disturbance recovery; and (4) models and long-term monitoring to better predict where and how storms and other climate change-driven phenomena impact coastal ecosystems and services. In so doing, we argue how plant scientists must work with geomorphologists and environmental agencies to protect the unique biodiversity and pivotal contribution to coastal defence delivered by maritime plant communities.

Connectivity in coastal systems: Barrier island vegetation influences upland migration in a changing climate

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, barrier islands are vulnerable to both oceanic and atmospheric climate change-related drivers. In response to relative sea-level rise, barrier islands tend to migrate landward via overwash processes which deposit sediment onto the backbarrier marsh, thus maintaining elevation above sea level. In this paper, we assess the importance of interior upland vegetation and sediment transport (from upland to marsh) on the movement of the marsh-upland boundary in a transgressive barrier system along the mid-Atlantic Coast. We hypothesize that recent woody expansion is altering the rate of marsh to upland conversion. Using Landsat imagery over a 32 year time period (1984-2016), we quantify transitions between land cover (bare, grassland, woody vegetation, and marsh) and the marsh-upland boundary. We find that the Virginia Barrier Islands have both gains and losses in backbarrier marsh and upland, with 19% net loss from the system during the timeframe of the study and increased variance in marsh to upland conversion. This is consistent with recent work indicating a shift toward increasing rates of landward barrier island migration. Despite a net loss of upland area, macroclimatic winter warming resulted in 41% increase in woody vegetation in protected, low-elevation areas, introducing new ecological scenarios that increase resistance to sediment movement from upland to marsh. Our analysis demonstrates how the interplay between elevation and interior island vegetative cover influences landward migration of the boundary between upland and marsh (a previously underappreciated indicator that an island is migrating), and thus, the importance of including ecological processes in the island interior into coastal modeling of barrier island migration and sediment movement across the barrier landscape.

Does phenology play a role in the feedbacks underlying shrub encroachment?

Shrub encroachment has emerged as a global phenomenon over the past century. Multiple drivers have been put forward to explain the increased shrub dominance in various ecosystems around the world. However, the potential role of phenology in regulating shrub encroachment is not well understood. We address this issue using 3-year continuous monitoring of the phenology of coexisting shrubs and grasses combined with observations of ecohydrological processes (water uptake) and soil conditions (root zone soil moisture, soil texture, and soil temperature) at four study sites in Inner Mongolia, China, with shrub coverage of Caragana microphylla ranging from 0%, to 6.8%, 26.8% and 34.2%. Along such an encroachment gradient, shrubs exhibited progressively earlier onsets and later ends of the growing season, with an overall extension in growing season length by 15 days to 22 days in the later stages of shrub encroachment. Conversely, the coexisting grasses showed earlier occurrences both in spring and autumn phenological phases, which resulted in a phenological gap between shrubs and grasses. Thus, a positive feedback could exist between these phenological changes and shrub encroachment. In shrub patches, soils were wetter, with finer texture, and with more suitable temperatures for plant survival and development, which favored the lengthening of growing season of shrubs. The longer growing seasons are associated with longer periods of water use and photosynthesis for shrubs, and better opportunities for water uptake, with the overall effect of facilitating shrub growth and further expansion.