Validation of U.S. mortality prediction models for hospitalized heart failure in the United Kingdom and Japan

Management and outcomes of heart failure hospitalization among older adults in the United States and Japan

AIMS

Despite advances in therapies, the disease burden of heart failure (HF) has been rising globally. International comparisons of HF management and outcomes may reveal care patterns that improve outcomes. Accordingly, we examined clinical management and patient outcomes in older adults hospitalized for acute HF in the United States (US) and Japan.

METHODS

We identified patients aged >65 who were hospitalized for HF in 2013 using US Medicare data and the Japanese Registry of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (JROADHF). We described patient characteristics, management, and healthcare utilization and compared outcomes using multivariable Cox regression during and after HF hospitalization.

RESULTS

Among 11 193 Japanese and 120 289 US patients, age and sex distributions were similar, but US patients had higher comorbidity rates. The length of stay was longer in Japan (median 18 vs. 5 days). While Medicare patients had higher use of implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy during hospitalization (1.32% vs. 0.6%), Japanese patients were more likely to receive cardiovascular medications at discharge and to undergo cardiac rehabilitation within 3 months of HF admission (31% vs. 1.6%). Physician follow-up within 30 days was higher in Japan (77% vs. 57%). Cardiovascular readmission, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality were 2.1-3.7 times higher in the US patients. The per-day cost of hospitalization was lower in Japan ($516 vs. $1323).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed notable differences in the management, outcomes and costs of HF hospitalization between the US and Japan. Large differences in length of hospitalization, cardiac rehabilitation rate and outcomes warrant further research to determine the optimal length of stay and assess the benefits of inpatient cardiac rehabilitation to reduce rehospitalization and mortality.

Changes in walking speed 6 months after discharge may be more sensitive to subsequent prognosis than handgrip strength in patients hospitalized for heart failure

BACKGROUND

Despite the prognostic importance of walking speed (WS) and handgrip strength (HGS) in patients with heart failure (HF), no study has reported the prognostic impact of changes in these parameters. This study aimed to examine the association between changes after discharge and the subsequent prognosis.

METHODS

This study included 881 elderly patients hospitalized for HF. WS and HGS were measured at discharge and 6 months after discharge. Based on the presence of slowness (WS <0.98 m/s) or weakness (HGS <30.0 kg for men and < 17.5 kg for women) at both points, patients were divided into four groups (WS: A = -/-, B = -/+, C = +/-, D = +/+; HGS: E = -/-, F = -/+, G = +/-, H = +/+). The study endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization during the 18 months after 6 months of discharge. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between the groups and study outcomes.

RESULTS

Stratified by the WS change patterns, groups B and D showed higher risk of the study outcomes than group A [B: hazard ratio 2.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-4.28; D: 2.38, 1.67-3.39], whereas group C was not. When stratified by the HGS change in patterns, only group H was associated with a worse prognosis (HR; 1.85, 95%CI; 1.31-2.60).

CONCLUSION

Changes in WS were related to HF prognosis, suggesting that changes in WS may be more sensitive to further risk stratification than changes in HGS.

Initiation and Up-Titration of Guideline-Based Medications in Hospitalized Acute Heart Failure Patients - A Report From the West Tokyo Heart Failure Registry

BACKGROUND

Despite recommendations from clinical practice guidelines to initiate and titrate guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) during their hospitalization, patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are frequently undertreated. In this study we aimed to clarify GDMT implementation and titration rates, as well as the long-term outcomes, in hospitalized AHF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among 3,164 consecutive hospitalized AHF patients included in a Japanese multicenter registry, 1,400 (44.2%) with ejection fraction ≤40% were analyzed. We assessed GDMT dosage (β-blockers, renin-angiotensin inhibitors, and mineralocorticoid-receptor antagonists) at admission and discharge, examined the contributing factors for up-titration, and evaluated associations between drug initiation/up-titration and 1-year post-discharge all-cause death and rehospitalization for HF via propensity score matching. The mean age of the patients was 71.5 years and 30.7% were female. Overall, 1,051 patients (75.0%) were deemed eligible for GDMT, based on their baseline vital signs, renal function, and electrolyte values. At discharge, only 180 patients (17.1%) received GDMT agents up-titrated to >50% of the maximum titrated dose. Up-titration was associated with a lower risk of 1-year clinical outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.58, 95% confidence interval: 0.35-0.96). Younger age and higher body mass index were significant predictors of drug up-titration.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant evidence-practice gaps in the use and dose of GDMT remain. Considering the associated favorable outcomes, further efforts to improve its implementation seem crucial.

Mortality, Outcomes, Costs, and Use of Medicines Following a First Heart Failure Hospitalization: EVOLUTION HF

BACKGROUND

There are few contemporary data on outcomes, costs, and treatment following a hospitalization for heart failure (hHF) in epidemiologically representative cohorts.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to describe rehospitalizations, hospitalization costs, use of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) (renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, sacubitril/valsartan, beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors), and mortality after hHF.

METHODS

EVOLUTION HF (Utilization of Dapagliflozin and Other Guideline Directed Medical Therapies in Heart Failure Patients: A Multinational Observational Study Based on Secondary Data) is an observational, longitudinal cohort study using data from electronic health records or claims data sources in Japan, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Adults with a first hHF discharge between 2018 and 2022 were included. The 1-year event rates per 100 patient-years (ERs) for death and rehospitalizations (with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (HF), chronic kidney disease [CKD], myocardial infarction, stroke, or peripheral artery disease) were calculated. Hospital health care costs were cumulatively summarized. Cumulative GDMT use was assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates.

RESULTS

Of 263,525 patients, 28% died within the first year post-hHF (ER: 28.4 [95% CI: 27.0-29.9]). Rehospitalizations were mainly driven by HF (ER: 13.6 [95% CI: 9.8-17.4]) and CKD (ER: 4.5 [95% CI: 3.6-5.3]), whereas the ERs for myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral artery disease were lower. Health care costs were predominantly driven by HF and CKD. Between 2020 and 2022, use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, sacubitril/valsartan, beta-blockers, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists changed little, whereas uptake of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors increased 2- to 7-fold.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident post-hHF rehospitalization risks and costs were high, and GDMT use changed little in the year following discharge, highlighting the need to consider earlier and greater implementation of GDMT to manage risks and reduce costs.

Construction of a web-based dynamic nomogram for predicting the prognosis in acute heart failure

AIMS

The early identification and appropriate management may provide clinically meaningful and substained benefits in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). This study aimed to develop an integrative nomogram with myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for predicting the risk of all-cause mortality in AHF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective study of 147 patients with AHF who received gated MPI (59.0 [47.5, 68.0] years; 78.2% males) were enrolled and followed for the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality. We analysed the demographic information, laboratory tests, electrocardiogram, and transthoracic echocardiogram by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression for selection of key features. A multivariate stepwise Cox analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors and construct a nomogram. The predictive values of the constructed model were compared by Kaplan-Meier curve, area under the curves (AUCs), calibration plots, continuous net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, and decision curve analysis. The 1, 3, and 5 year cumulative rates of death were 10%, 22%, and 29%, respectively. Diastolic blood pressure [hazard ratio (HR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-0.99; P = 0.017], valvular heart disease (HR 3.05, 95% CI 1.36-6.83; P = 0.007), cardiac resynchronization therapy (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17-0.82; P = 0.014), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (per 100 pg/mL; HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03; P < 0.001), and rest scar burden (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06; P = 0.008) were independent risk factors for patients with AHF. The cross-validated AUCs (95% CI) of nomogram constructed by diastolic blood pressure, valvular heart disease, cardiac resynchronization therapy, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and rest scar burden were 0.88 (0.73-1.00), 0.83 (0.70-0.97), and 0.79 (0.62-0.95) at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Continuous net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were also observed, and the decision curve analysis identified the greater net benefit of the nomogram across a wide range of threshold probabilities (0-100% at 1 and 3 years; 0-61% and 62-100% at 5 years) compared with dismissing the included factors or using either factor alone.

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive nomogram for the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with AHF was developed and validated in this study. The nomogram incorporated the rest scar burden by MPI is highly predictive, and may help to better stratify clinical risk and guide treatment decisions in patients with AHF.

Which congestion presentation pattern on the physical findings is associated with future adverse events? A cluster analysis in the multicenter acute heart failure registry

BACKGROUND

Clinical congestion is the most frequent reason for hospital admission in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, few studies have investigated the patterns and prognostic implication of the physical congestion using unbiased and robust statistical methods.

METHODS

A hierarchical agglomerative clustering analysis was performed in the multicenter Japanese AHF registry (N = 3151) with the distance calculated by Jaccard's distance for jugular vein distention (JVD), leg edema, S3, crackles, and orthopnea. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac death and heart failure readmission within 1-year.

RESULTS

At the time of admission, the median number of prevalent congestive signs was 2. We identified three phenogroups: 'no physical congestions' (N = 251); 'congestion without JVD' (N = 1415); and 'congestion with JVD' (N = 1495). Patients in 'no physical congestion' were the youngest (median 75 [62, 83] years) with the lowest systolic blood pressure (122 [106, 142] mmHg). Patients in 'congestion without JVD', and 'congestion with JVD' were similar in terms of age (77 [67, 84] vs. 78 [69, 84] years) and systolic blood pressure (138 [118, 160] vs. 137 [118, 158] mmHg). While 30-day mortality was similar (4.0%, 3.7%, and 4.3% in 'no physical congestion,' 'congestion without JVD,' and 'congestion with JVD', respectively), the patients in 'congestion with JVD' were at the highest risk for the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio 1.79, 95% CI 1.26-2.55 when 'no physical congestion' was a reference).

CONCLUSIONS

Our clustering analysis demonstrated that congestion signs, particularly JVD, allowed identification of AHF phenogroups with distinct clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes.

Phenotyping of Elderly Patients With Heart Failure Focused on Noncardiac Conditions: A Latent Class Analysis From a Multicenter Registry of Patients Hospitalized With Heart Failure

Background The burden of noncardiovascular conditions is becoming increasingly prevalent in patients with heart failure (HF). We aimed to identify novel phenogroups incorporating noncardiovascular conditions to facilitate understanding and risk stratification in elderly patients with HF. Methods and Results Data from a total of 1881 (61.2%) patients aged ≥65 years were extracted from a prospective multicenter registry of patients hospitalized for acute HF (N=3072). We constructed subgroups of patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF; N=826, 43.9%) and those with non-HFpEF (N=1055, 56.1%). Latent class analysis was performed in each subgroup using 17 variables focused on noncardiovascular conditions (including comorbidities, Clinical Frailty Scale, and Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index). The latent class analysis revealed 3 distinct clinical phenogroups in both HFpEF and non-HFpEF subgroups: (1) robust physical and nutritional status (Group 1: HFpEF, 41.2%; non-HFpEF, 46.0%); (2) multimorbid patients with renal impairment (Group 2: HFpEF, 40.8%; non-HFpEF, 41.9%); and (3) malnourished patients (Group 3: HFpEF, 18.0%; non-HFpEF, 12.1%). After multivariable adjustment, compared with Group 1, patients in Groups 2 and 3 had a higher risk for all-cause death over the 1-year postdischarge period (hazard ratio [HR], 2.79 [95% CI, 1.64-4.81] and HR, 2.73 [95% CI, 1.39-5.35] in HFpEF; HR, 1.96 [95% CI, 1.22-3.14] and HR, 2.97 [95% CI, 1.64-5.38] in non-HFpEF; respectively). Conclusions In elderly patients with HF, the phenomapping focused on incorporating noncardiovascular conditions identified 3 phenogroups, each representing distinct clinical outcomes, and the discrimination pattern was similar for both patients with HFpEF and non-HFpEF. This classification provides novel risk stratification and may aid in clinical decision making.

Current Status of Dapagliflozin in Congestive Heart Failure

Heart failure is a prominent clinical condition and a top concern as a widespread health issue. The incidence of heart failure is rising alarmingly on a global scale. Heart failure significantly strains the whole healthcare system financially, degrading the patient's quality of life and increasing the risk of morbidity and mortality. Heart failure treatment has changed over time with ongoing research and the development of new medications and equipment.

Recently, the FDA and European Union (EU) approved the drug dapagliflozin, which is an inhibitor of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT-2i), for treating people with cardiovascular conditions and symptomatic heart failure (HF). In this review article, we will find out whether Dapagliflozin, when given at a dose of 10 mg/day in people with type 2 diabetes and in those without type 2 diabetes who have or are at risk for atherosclerotic alterations, can considerably lower the risk of cardiovascular mortality or hospitalization for HF. In the presence of concomitant HF therapies, dapagliflozin's benefits remained. Dapagliflozin's overall safety profile was comparable to its safety profile for other applications. It was often well tolerated in patients in a study group. In this review article, dapagliflozin is found to be the well-tolerated and effective novel treatment of choice for symptomatic HF. Because of the scarcity of research on dapagliflozin, it was necessary to provide data to help reduce the mortality of patients while providing further guidance on the clinical medication of dapagliflozin. 

Hospitalization for Heart Failure in the United States, UK, Taiwan, and Japan: An International Comparison of Administrative Health Records on 413,385 Individual Patients

BACKGROUND

Registries show international variations in the characteristics and outcome of patients with heart failure (HF), but national samples are rarely large, and case selection may be biased owing to enrolment in academic centers. National administrative datasets provide large samples with a low risk of bias. In this study, we compared the characteristics, health care resource use (HRU) and outcomes of patients with primary HF hospitalizations (HFH) using electronic health records (EHR) from 4 high-income countries (United States, UK, Taiwan, Japan) on 3 continents.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used electronic health record to identify unplanned HFH between 2012 and 2014. We identified 231,512, 10,991, 36,900, and 133,982 patients with a primary HFH from the United States, the UK, Taiwan, and Japan, respectively. HFH per 100,000 population was highest in the United States and lowest in Taiwan. Fewer patients in Taiwan and Japan were obese or had chronic kidney disease. The length of hospital stay was shortest in the United States (median 4 days) and longer in the UK, Taiwan, and Japan (medians of 7, 9, and 17 days, respectively). HRU during hospitalization was highest in Japan and lowest in UK. Crude and direct standardized in-hospital mortality was lowest in the United States (direct standardized rates 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.7%-1.9%) and progressively higher in Taiwan (direct standardized rates 3.9, 95% CI 3.8%-4.1%), the UK (direct standardized rates 6.4, 95% CI 6.1%-6.7%), and Japan (direct standardized rates 6.7, 95% CI 6.6%-6.8%). The 30-day all-cause (25.8%) and HF (7.2%) readmissions were highest in the United States and lowest in Japan (11.9% and 5.1%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Marked international variations in patient characteristics, HRU, and clinical outcomes exist; understanding them might inform health care policy and international trial design.

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Irreversible Worsened Cardiac Function in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Background: Irreversible worsening of cardiac function is an adverse event associated with significant morbidity among patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We aimed to develop a parsimonious model which is simple to use in clinical settings for the prediction of the risk of irreversible worsening of cardiac function. Methods: A total of 871 ADHF patients were enrolled in this study. Data for each patient were collected from the medical records. Irreversible worsening of cardiac function included cardiac death within 30-days of patient hospitalization, implantation of a left ventricular assistance device, or emergency heart transplantation. We performed LASSO regression for variable selection to derive a multivariable logistic regression model. Five candidate predictors were selected to derive the final prediction model. The prediction model was verified using C-statistics, calibration curve, and decision curve. Results: Irreversible worsening of cardiac function occurred in 7.8% of the patients. Advanced age, NYHA class, high blood urea nitrogen, hypoalbuminemia, and vasopressor use were its strongest predictors. The prediction model showed good discrimination C-statistic value, 0.866 (95% CI, 0.817-0.907), which indicated good identical calibration and clinical efficacy. Conclusion: In this study, we developed a prediction model and nomogram to estimate the risk of irreversible worsening of cardiac function among ADHF patients. The findings may provide a reference for clinical physicians for detection of irreversible worsening of cardiac function and enable its prompt management.

Risk Stratification Towards Precision Medicine in Heart Failure - Current Progress and Future Perspectives

Clinical risk stratification is a key strategy used to identify low- and high-risk subjects to optimize the management, ranging from pharmacological treatment to palliative care, of patients with heart failure (HF). Using statistical modeling techniques, many HF risk prediction models that combine predictors to assess the risk of specific endpoints, including death or worsening HF, have been developed. However, most risk prediction models have not been well-integrated into the clinical setting because of their inadequacy and diverse predictive performance. To improve the performance of such models, several factors, including optimal sampling and biomarkers, need to be considered when deriving the models; however, given the large heterogeneity of HF, the currently advocated one-size-fits-all approach is not appropriate for every patient. Recent advances in techniques to analyze biological "omics" information could allow for the development of a personalized medicine platform, and there is growing awareness that an integrated approach based on the concept of system biology may be an excessively naïve view of the multiple contributors and complexity of an individual's HF phenotype. This review article describes the progress in risk stratification strategies and perspectives of emerging precision medicine in the field of HF management.

Heart failure in the last year: progress and perspective

Research about heart failure (HF) has made major progress in the last years. We give here an update on the most recent findings. Landmark trials have established new treatments for HF with reduced ejection fraction. Sacubitril/valsartan was superior to enalapril in PARADIGM-HF trial, and its initiation during hospitalization for acute HF or early after discharge can now be considered. More recently, new therapeutic pathways have been developed. In the DAPA-HF and EMPEROR-Reduced trials, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite endpoint, compared with placebo [hazard ratio (HR) 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.85; P < 0.001 and HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.65-0.86; P < 0.001, respectively]. Second, vericiguat, an oral soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, reduced the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization vs. placebo (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.98; P = 0.02). On the other hand, both the diagnosis and treatment of HF with preserved ejection fraction, as well as management of advanced HF and acute HF, remain challenging. A better phenotyping of patients with HF would be helpful for prognostic stratification and treatment selection. Further aspects, such as the use of devices, treatment of arrhythmias, and percutaneous treatment of valvular heart disease in patients with HF, are also discussed and reviewed in this article.

Optimal sampling in derivation studies was associated with improved discrimination in external validation for heart failure prognostic models

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the study was to identify determinants of external validity of prognostic models.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We systematically searched for studies reporting prognostic models of heart failure (HF) and examined their performance for predicting 30-day death in a cohort of consecutive 3,452 acute HF patients. We applied published critical appraisal tools and examined whether bias or other characteristics of original derivation studies determined model performance.

RESULTS

We identified 224 models from 6,354 eligible studies. The mean c-statistic in the cohort was 0.64 (standard deviation, 0.07). In univariable analyses, only optimal sampling assessed by an adequate and valid description of the sampling frame and recruitment details to collect the population of interest (total score range: 0-2, higher scores indicating lower risk of bias) was associated with high performance (standardized β = 0.25, 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.38, P < 0.001). It was still significant after adjustment for relevant study characteristics, such as data source, scale of study, stage of illness, and study year (standardized β = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.40, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Optimal sampling representing the gap between the population of interest and the studied population in derivation studies was a key determinant of external validity of HF prognostic models.

Highlights in heart failure

Heart failure (HF) remains a major cause of mortality, morbidity, and poor quality of life. It is an area of active research. This article is aimed to give an update on recent advances in all aspects of this syndrome. Major changes occurred in drug treatment of HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Sacubitril/valsartan is indicated as a substitute to ACEi/ARBs after PARADIGM-HF (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 0.87 for sacubitril/valsartan vs. enalapril for the primary endpoint and Wei, Lin and Weissfeld HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.71-0.89 for recurrent events). Its initiation was then shown as safe and potentially useful in recent studies in patients hospitalized for acute HF. More recently, dapagliflozin and prevention of adverse-outcomes in DAPA-HF trial showed the beneficial effects of the sodium-glucose transporter type 2 inhibitor dapaglifozin vs. placebo, added to optimal standard therapy [HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.85;0.74; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.85 for the primary endpoint]. Trials with other SGLT 2 inhibitors and in other patients, such as those with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) or with recent decompensation, are ongoing. Multiple studies showed the unfavourable prognostic significance of abnormalities in serum potassium levels. Potassium lowering agents may allow initiation and titration of mineralocorticoid antagonists in a larger proportion of patients. Meta-analyses suggest better outcomes with ferric carboxymaltose in patients with iron deficiency. Drugs effective in HFrEF may be useful also in HF with mid-range ejection fraction. Better diagnosis and phenotype characterization seem warranted in HF with preserved ejection fraction. These and other burning aspects of HF research are summarized and reviewed in this article.