Cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death distinction: the utility of troponin beyond N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. Findings from the BIOSTAT-CHF study

A Prognostic Model Based on Clinical Biomarkers for Heart Failure in Adult Patients Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Heart failure (HF) is an uncommon but serious cardiovascular complication after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Unfortunately, knowledge about early mortality prognostic factors in patients with HF after allo-HSCT is limited, and an easy-to-use prognostic model is not available. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical-biomarker prognostic model capable of predicting HF mortality following allo-HSCT that uses a combination of variables readily available in clinical practice. To investigate this issue, we conducted a retrospective analysis at our center with 154 HF patients who underwent allo-HSCT between 2008 and 2021. The patients were separated according to the time of transplantation, with 100 patients composing the derivation cohort and the other 54 patients composing the external validation cohort. We first calculated the univariable association for each variable with 2-month mortality in the derivation cohort. We then included the variables with a P value <.1 in univariate analysis as candidate predictors in the multivariate analysis using a backward stepwise logistic regression model. Variables remaining in the final model were identified as independent prognostic factors. To predict the prognosis of HF, a scoring system was established, and scores were assigned to the prognostic factors based on the regression coefficient. Finally, 4 strongly significant independent prognostic factors for 2-month mortality from HF were identified using multivariable logistic regression methods with stepwise variable selection: pulmonary infection (P = .005), grade III to IV acute graft-versus-host disease (severe aGVHD; P = .033), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) >426 U/L (P = .049), and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) >1799 pg/mL (P = .026). A risk grading model termed the BLIPS score (for BNP, LDH, cardiac troponin I, pulmonary infection, and severe aGVHD) was constructed according to the regression coefficients. The validated internal C-statistic was .870 (95% confidence interval [CI], .798 to .942), and the external C-statistic was .882 (95% CI, .791-.973). According to the calibration plots, the model-predicted probability correlated well with the actual observed frequencies. The clinical use of the prognostic model, according to decision curve analysis, could benefit HF patients. The BLIPS model in our study can serve to identify HF patients at higher risk for mortality early, which might aid designing timely targeted therapies and eventually improving patients' survival and prognosis.

Heart failure: an update from the last years and a look at the near future

In the last years, major progress occurred in heart failure (HF) management. Quadruple therapy is now mandatory for all the patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction. Whilst verciguat is becoming available across several countries, omecamtiv mecarbil is waiting to be released for clinical use. Concurrent use of potassium-lowering agents may counteract hyperkalaemia and facilitate renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor implementations. The results of the EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) trial were confirmed by the Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure with Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction (DELIVER) trial, and we now have, for the first time, evidence for treatment of also patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction. In a pre-specified meta-analysis of major randomized controlled trials, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors reduced all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) mortality, and HF hospitalization in the patients with HF regardless of left ventricular ejection fraction. Other steps forward have occurred in the treatment of decompensated HF. Acetazolamide in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure with Volume Overload (ADVOR) trial showed that the addition of intravenous acetazolamide to loop diuretics leads to greater decongestion vs. placebo. The addition of hydrochlorothiazide to loop diuretics was evaluated in the CLOROTIC trial. Torasemide did not change outcomes, compared with furosemide, in TRANSFORM-HF. Ferric derisomaltose had an effect on the primary outcome of CV mortality or HF rehospitalizations in IRONMAN (rate ratio 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.66-1.02; P = 0.070). Further options for the treatment of HF, including device therapies, cardiac contractility modulation, and percutaneous treatment of valvulopathies, are summarized in this article.

Whole blood transcriptomic profiling identifies molecular pathways related to cardiovascular mortality in heart failure

AIMS

Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a systemic syndrome with a poor prognosis and a need for novel therapies. We investigated whether whole blood transcriptomic profiling can provide new mechanistic insights into cardiovascular (CV) mortality in CHF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Transcriptome profiles were generated at baseline from 944 CHF patients from the BIOSTAT-CHF study, of whom 626 survived and 318 died from a CV cause during a follow-up of 21 months. Multivariable analysis, including adjustment for cell count, identified 1153 genes (6.5%) that were differentially expressed between those that survived or died and strongly related to a validated clinical risk score for adverse prognosis. The differentially expressed genes mainly belonged to five non-redundant pathways: adaptive immune response, proteasome-mediated ubiquitin-dependent protein catabolic process, T-cell co-stimulation, positive regulation of T-cell proliferation, and erythrocyte development. These five pathways were selectively related (RV coefficients >0.20) with seven circulating protein biomarkers of CV mortality (fibroblast growth factor 23, soluble ST2, adrenomedullin, hepcidin, pentraxin-3, WAP 4-disulfide core domain 2, and interleukin-6) revealing an intricate relationship between immune and iron homeostasis. The pattern of survival-associated gene expression matched with 29 perturbagen-induced transcriptome signatures in the iLINCS drug-repurposing database, identifying drugs, approved for other clinical indications, that were able to reverse in vitro the molecular changes associated with adverse prognosis in CHF.

CONCLUSION

Systematic modelling of the whole blood protein-coding transcriptome defined molecular pathways that provide a link between clinical risk factors and adverse CV prognosis in CHF, identifying both established and new potential therapeutic targets.

Improving Clinical Trial Efficiency Using a Machine Learning Based Risk Score to Enrich Study Populations

AIMS

Prognostic enrichment strategies can make trials more efficient, although potentially at the cost of diminishing external validity. Whether using a risk score to identify a population at increased mortality risk could improve trial efficiency is uncertain. We aimed to assess whether Machine learning Assessment of RisK and EaRly mortality in Heart Failure (MARKER-HF), a previously validated risk score, could improve clinical trial efficiency.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Mortality rates and association of MARKER-HF with all-cause death by one year was evaluated in four community-based heart failure (HF) and five HF clinical trial cohorts. Sample size required to assess effects of an investigational therapy on mortality was calculated assuming varying underlying MARKER-HF risk and proposed treatment effect profiles. Patients from community-based HF cohorts (n=11,297) had higher observed mortality and MARKER-HF scores than did clinical trial patients (n=13,165) with HF with either reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) or preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). MARKER-HF score was strongly associated with risk of one-year mortality both in the community (HR 1.48 [95% CI: 1.44-1.52]) and clinical trial cohorts with HFrEF (HR 1.41 [95% CI: 1.30-1.54]), and HFpEF (HR 1.74 [95% CI: 1.53-1.98]), per 0.1 increase in MARKER-HF. Using MARKER-HF to identify patients for a hypothetical clinical trial assessing mortality reduction with an intervention, enabled a reduction in sample size required to show benefit.

CONCLUSION

Using a reliable predictor of mortality such as MARKER-HF to enrich clinical trial populations provides a potential strategy to improve efficiency by requiring a smaller sample size to demonstrate a clinical benefit.

Growth differentiation factor 15 predicts poor prognosis in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction and anemia: results from RED-HF

Aims

We aimed to assess the value of GDF-15, a stress-responsive cytokine, in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and anemia

Methods and results

Serum GDF-15 was assessed in 1582 HFrEF and mild-to-moderate anemia patients who where followed for 28 months in the Reduction of Events by Darbepoetin alfa in Heart Failure (RED-HF) trial, an overall neutral RCT evaluating the effect darbepoetin alfa on clinical outcomes in patients with systolic heart failure and mild-to-moderate anemia. Association between baseline and change in GDF-15 during 6 months follow-up and the primary composite outcome of all-cause death or HF hospitalization were evaluated in multivariable Cox-models adjusted for conventional clinical and biochemical risk factors. The adjusted risk for the primary outcome increased with (i) successive tertiles of baseline GDF-15 (tertile 3 HR 1.56 [1.23–1.98] p < 0.001) as well as with (ii) a 15% increase in GDF-15 levels over 6 months of follow-up (HR 1.68 [1.38–2.06] p < 0.001). Addition of change in GDF-15 to the fully adjusted model improved the C-statistics (p < 0.001). No interaction between treatment and baseline or change in GDF-15 on outcome was observed. GDF-15 was inversely associated with several indices of anemia and correlated positively with ferritin.

Conclusions

In patients with HF and anemia, both higher baseline serum GDF-15 levels and an increase in GDF-15 during follow-up, were associated with worse clinical outcomes. GDF-15 did not identify subgroups of patients who might benefit from correction of anemia but was associated with several indices of anemia and iron status in the HF patients.

Graphic abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00392-021-01944-6.

Novel biomarker-driven prognostic models to predict morbidity and mortality in chronic heart failure: the EMPEROR-Reduced trial

Aims

The aim of this study was to generate a biomarker-driven prognostic tool for patients with chronic HFrEF. Circulating levels of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) each have a marked positive relationship with adverse outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). A risk model incorporating biomarkers and clinical variables has not been validated in contemporary heart failure (HF) trials.

Methods and results

In EMPEROR-Reduced, 33 candidate variables were pre-selected. Multivariable Cox regression models were developed using stepwise selection for: (i) the primary composite outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death, (ii) all-cause death, and (iii) cardiovascular mortality. A total of 3730 patients were followed up for a median of 16 months, 823 (22%) patients had a primary outcome and 515 (14%) patients died, of whom 389 (10%) died from a cardiovascular cause. NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were the dominant predictors of the primary outcome, and in addition, a shorter time since last HF hospitalization, longer time since HF diagnosis, lower systolic blood pressure, New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III or IV, higher heart rate and peripheral oedema were key predictors (eight variables in total, all P < 0.001). The primary outcome risk score discriminated well (c-statistic = 0.73), with patients in the top 10th of risk having an event rate >9 times higher than those in the bottom 10th. Empagliflozin benefitted patients across risk levels for the primary outcome. NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were also the dominant predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, followed by NYHA Class III or IV and ischaemic aetiology (four variables in total, all P < 0.001). The mortality risk model presented good event discrimination for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (c-statistic = 0.69 for both). These simple models were externally validated in the BIOSTAT-CHF study, achieving similar c-statistics.

Conclusions

The combination of NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT with a small number of readily available clinical variables provides prognostic assessment for patients with HFrEF. This predictive tool kit can be easily implemented for routine clinical use.

Sudden cardiac death after acute decompensation in heart failure patients: implications of discharge haemoglobin levels

Aims

Heart failure (HF) patients have a high risk of mortality due to sudden cardiac death (SCD) and non‐SCD, including pump failure death (PFD). Anaemia predicts more severe symptomatic burden and higher morbidity, as noted by markedly increased hospitalizations and readmission rates, and mortality, underscoring its importance in HF management. Herein, we aimed to determine whether haemoglobin (Hb) level at discharge affects the mode of death and influences SCD risk prediction.

Methods

We evaluated the data of 3020 consecutive acute HF patients from a Japanese prospective multicentre registry. Patients were divided into four groups based on discharge Hb levels. SCD was defined as an unexpected and otherwise unexplained death in a previously stable patient or death due to documented or presumed cardiac arrhythmia without a clear non‐cardiovascular cause. The mode of death (SCD, PFD or other cause) was adjudicated by a central committee. Finally, we investigated whether adding Hb level to the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM; established risk score utilized to estimate ‘proportion’ of SCD among death events) would affect its performance.

Results

The mean age of studied patients was 74.3 ± 12.9 years, and 59.8% were male. The mean Hb level was 12.0 ± 2.1 g/dL (61.3% of patients had anaemia defined by World Health Organization criteria). During the 2‐year follow‐up, 474 deaths (15.7%) occurred, including 93 SCDs (3.1%), 171 PFDs (5.7%) and 210 other deaths (7.0%; predominantly non‐cardiac death). Absolute risk of PFD (P < 0.001) or other death (P < 0.001) increased along with the severity of anaemia, whereas the incidence of SCD was low but remained consistent across all four groups (P = 0.440). As a proportion of total deaths in each Hb level group, the contributions from non‐SCD increased and from SCD decreased along with anaemia severity (P = 0.007). Adding Hb level to the SPRM improved the overall discrimination (c‐index: 0.62 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56–0.69] to 0.65 [95% CI 0.59–0.71]), regardless of the baseline ejection fraction (EF) (c‐index: 0.64 [95% CI 0.55–0.73] to 0.67 [95% CI 0.58–0.75] for reduced EF and 0.55 [95% CI 0.45–0.66] to 0.61 [95% CI 0.52–0.70] for preserved EF).

Conclusions

The discharge Hb level provides information about both absolute and proportional risks for each mode of death in acute HF patients, and the addition of Hb level improves the performance of SPRM by identifying more non‐SCD cases. Future ‘proportional’ SCD risk models should incorporate Hb level as a covariate to meet this high performance.

Concentration-dependent clinical and prognostic importance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in heart failure and a reduced ejection fraction and the influence of empagliflozin: the EMPEROR-Reduced trial

Aims

Circulating troponin is an important measure of risk in patients with heart failure, but it has not been used to determine if disease severity influences the responses to drug treatments in randomized controlled trials.

Methods and results

In the EMPEROR‐Reduced trial, patients with class II–IV heart failure and a reduced ejection fraction were randomly assigned to placebo or empagliflozin 10 mg daily and followed for the occurrence of serious heart failure and renal events. High‐sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs‐cTnT) was measured in 3636 patients (>97%) at baseline, and patients were divided into four groups based on the degree of troponin elevation. With increasing concentrations of hs‐cTnT, patients were progressively more likely to have diabetes and atrial fibrillation, to have New York Heart Association class III–IV symptoms and been hospitalized for heart failure within the prior year, and to have elevated levels of natriuretic peptides and worse renal function (P‐trend < 0.0001 for all comparisons), but importantly, the troponin groups did not differ with respect to ejection fraction. A linear relationship was observed between the logarithm of hs‐cTnT and the combined risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure (P = 0.0015). When treated with placebo, patients with the highest levels of hs‐cTnT had risks of cardiovascular death and hospitalization for heart failure that were 3–5 fold greater than those with values in the normal range. Patients with higher levels of hs‐cTnT were also more likely to experience worsening of renal function and serious adverse renal events and showed the least improvement in health status (as measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire). When compared with placebo, empagliflozin reduced the combined risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure, regardless of the baseline level of hs‐cTnT, whether the effects of treatment were analysed as hazard ratios or absolute risk reductions.

Conclusions

Elevations in hs‐cTnT reflect the clinical severity, stability and prognosis of patients with heart failure and a reduced ejection fraction, with biomarkers, comorbidities, clinical course and risks that are proportional to the magnitude of hs‐cTnT elevation. Empagliflozin exerted favourable effects on heart failure and renal outcomes, regardless of the baseline concentration of hs‐cTnT.

Heart failure in the last year: progress and perspective

Research about heart failure (HF) has made major progress in the last years. We give here an update on the most recent findings. Landmark trials have established new treatments for HF with reduced ejection fraction. Sacubitril/valsartan was superior to enalapril in PARADIGM‐HF trial, and its initiation during hospitalization for acute HF or early after discharge can now be considered. More recently, new therapeutic pathways have been developed. In the DAPA‐HF and EMPEROR‐Reduced trials, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite endpoint, compared with placebo [hazard ratio (HR) 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65–0.85; P < 0.001 and HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.65–0.86; P < 0.001, respectively]. Second, vericiguat, an oral soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, reduced the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization vs. placebo (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82–0.98; P = 0.02). On the other hand, both the diagnosis and treatment of HF with preserved ejection fraction, as well as management of advanced HF and acute HF, remain challenging. A better phenotyping of patients with HF would be helpful for prognostic stratification and treatment selection. Further aspects, such as the use of devices, treatment of arrhythmias, and percutaneous treatment of valvular heart disease in patients with HF, are also discussed and reviewed in this article.

[Anesthesiological implications of minimally invasive valve interventions : Transcatheter aortic valve implantation, clip reconstruction on the mitral and tricuspid valve]

Catheter-guided interventional implantation of cardiac valves is one of the main developments in cardiology over the past 15 years. It is characterized by a close interdisciplinary cooperation in the heart team (H-team), which consists of cardiac anesthesiologists, cardiologists and heart surgeons. This co-responsibility for anesthesia, which is demanded by the legislator (Federal Joint Committee, G‑BA, July 2015), includes not only qualified training for the cardiac anesthesiologist, including transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) but also several years of experience in cardiac anesthesia and correlates with the recommendations of the German Society for Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine. In accompaniment with the demographic development, the number of heart valve diseases increases with age. More than 50% of all heart operations are performed on patients over the age of 70 years and nearly 20% on patients over the age of 80 years. Minimally invasive procedures are outstanding opportunities for patients who were initially classified as inoperable. Therefore, anesthesiologists must have precise knowledge of the possible complications related to the procedure itself. Additionally, it challenges the anesthesiologist with unconventional situations in the care of older patients who are exposed to a higher risk. The aforementioned risks are organic functional restrictions, increasing number of comorbidities and more severe exposure due to malnutrition and frailty; however, monitoring methods are also being developed aiming for patient-specific anesthesia management and analgesia treatment. This article discusses the interventional procedures of heart valvular diseases as well as the hemodynamic changes associated with the procedures from the anesthesiologist's point of view. To present examples, we have selected transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and the interventional procedure of mitral and tricuspid valve insufficiency called MitraClip and TricaClip. A thorough examination of the procedural risk rate shows that despite minimizing the surgical intervention by miniaturizing the devices, the presence of an experienced cardiac anesthesiologist is obligatory.

Natriuretic Peptide-Based Inclusion Criteria in a Heart Failure Clinical Trial: Insights From COMMANDER HF

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the effects of a mid-trial protocol amendment requiring elevated natriuretic peptides for inclusion in the COMMANDER-HF (A Study to Assess the Effectiveness and Safety of Rivaroxaban in Reducing the Risk of Death, Myocardial Infarction, or Stroke in Participants with Heart Failure and Coronary Artery Disease Following an Episode of Decompensated Heart Failure) trial.

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) trials that select patients based on history of HF hospitalization alone are susceptible to regional variations in event rates. Elevated plasma concentrations of natriuretic peptides (NPs) as selection criteria may help HF ascertainment and risk enrichment. In the COMMANDER-HF trial, B-type natriuretic peptide ≥200 ng/l or N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ≥800 ng/l were added to inclusion criteria as a mid-trial protocol amendment, providing a unique case-study of NP-based inclusion criteria.

METHODS

We compared the baseline characteristics, event rates, and treatment effects for patients enrolled before and after the NP protocol amendment. The primary endpoint was all-cause death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Secondary endpoints included HF rehospitalization and cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

A total of 5,022 patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% and coronary artery disease were included. Compared to patients enrolled before the NP protocol amendment, those enrolled post-amendment (n = 3,867, 77%) were older, more often had diabetes, and had lower values for body mass index, left ventricular ejection fraction, and estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher heart rate, and higher event rates: primary endpoint (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16 to 1.50), cardiovascular death (HR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.50), HF rehospitalization (HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.49), and major bleeding (HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.11 to 2.65). Differences between pre- and post-amendment rates were confined to and driven by Eastern Europe. This protocol amendment did not modify the neutral effect of rivaroxaban on the primary endpoint (p interaction = 0.36) or secondary endpoints.

CONCLUSIONS

In a global event-driven trial of rivaroxaban in HF, requiring elevated NPs for inclusion increased event rates allowing earlier completion of the trial but did not modify treatment effect. These data inform future HF trials regarding the expected impact of NP-based inclusion criteria on patient characteristics and event rates. (COMMANDER HF [A Study to Assess the Effectiveness and Safety of Rivaroxaban in Reducing the Risk of Death, Myocardial Infarction, or Stroke in Participants With Heart Failure and Coronary Artery Disease Following an Episode of Decompensated Heart Failure] NCT01877915).