Impact of the smoking ban on the volume of bar sales in Ireland: evidence from time series analysis

Change in the air due to the coronavirus outbreak in four major cities of India: What do the statistics say?

The onset of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has impacted all sectors of society. To avoid the rapid spread of this virus, the Government of India imposed a nationwide lockdown in four phases. Lockdown, due to COVID-19 pandemic, resulted a decline in pollution in India in general and in dense cities in particular. Data on key air quality indicators were collected, imputed, and compiled for the period 1st August 2018 to 31st May 2020 for India's four megacities, namely Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Hyderabad. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and machine learning technique e.g. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with the inclusion of lockdown dummy in both the models have been applied to examine the impact of anthropogenic activity on air quality parameters. The number of indicators having significant lockdown dummy are six (PM2.5, PM10, NOx, CO, benzene, and AQI), five (PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2 and benzene), five (PM10, NOx, CO, benzene and AQI) and three (PM2.5, PM10, and AQI) for Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Hyderabad respectively. It was also observed that the prediction accuracy significantly improved when a lockdown dummy was incorporated. The highest reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is found for CO in Hyderabad (28.98%) followed by the NOx in Delhi (28.55%). Overall, it can be concluded that there is a significant decline in the value of air quality parameters in the lockdown period as compared to the same time phase in the previous year. Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic will help to achieve significant improvement in ambient air quality while keeping economic growth in mind.

The Economics of Tobacco Regulation: A Comprehensive Review

Tobacco regulation has been a major component of health policy in the developed world since the UK Royal College of Physicians' and the US Surgeon General's reports in the 1960s. Such regulation, which has intensified in the past two decades, includes cigarette taxation, place-based smoking bans in areas ranging from bars and restaurants to workplaces, and regulations designed to make tobacco products less desirable. More recently, the availability of alternative products, most notably e-cigarettes, has increased dramatically, and these products are just starting to be regulated. Despite an extensive body of research on tobacco regulations, there remains substantial debate regarding their effectiveness, and ultimately, their impact on economic welfare. We provide the first comprehensive review of the state of research in the economics of tobacco regulation in two decades.

Internet search data could Be used as novel indicator for assessing COVID-19 epidemic

The pandemic of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses a huge challenge all countries, since no one is well prepared for it. To be better prepared for future pandemics, we evaluated association between the internet search data with reported COVID-19 cases to verify whether it could become an early indicator for emerging epidemic. After the keyword filtering and Index composition, we found that there were close correlations between Composite Index and suspected cases for COVID-19 (r = 0.921, P < 0.05). The Search Index was applied for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model to quantify the relationship. Compared with the model based on surveillance data only, the ARIMAX model had smaller Akaike Information Criterion (AIC = 403.51) and the most accurate predictive values. Overall, the Internet search data could serve as a convenient indicator for predicting the epidemic and to monitor its trends.

Using Baidu Search Engine to Monitor AIDS Epidemics Inform for Targeted intervention of HIV/AIDS in China

China’s reported cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and AIDS increased from over 50000 in 2011 to more than 130000 in 2017, while AIDS related search indices on Baidu from 2.1 million to 3.7 million in the same time periods. In China, people seek AIDS related knowledge from Baidu which one of the world’s largest search engine. We study the relationship of national HIV surveillance data with the Baidu index (BDI) and use it to monitor AIDS epidemic and inform targeted intervention. After screening keywords and making index composition, we used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. The most correlated search engine query data was obtained by using ARIMA with external variables (ARIMAX) model for epidemic prediction. A significant correlation between monthly HIV/AIDS report cases and Baidu Composite Index (r = 0.845, P < 0.001) was observed using time series plot. Compared with the ARIMA model based on AIDS surveillance data, the ARIMAX model with Baidu Composite Index had the minimal an Akaike information criterion (AIC, 839.42) and the most exact prediction (MAPE of 6.11%). We showed that there are close correlations of the same trends between BDI and HIV/AIDS reports cases for both increasing and decreasing AIDS epidemic. Therefore, the Baidu search query data may be a good useful indicator for reliably monitoring and predicting HIV/AIDS epidemic in China.

The effect of smoking on obesity: Evidence from a randomized trial

This paper aims to identify the causal effect of smoking on body mass index (BMI) using data from the Lung Health Study, a randomized trial of smoking cessation treatments. Since nicotine is a metabolic stimulant and appetite suppressant, quitting or reducing smoking could lead to weight gain. Using randomized treatment assignment to instrument for smoking, we estimate that quitting smoking leads to an average long-run weight gain of 1.8-1.9 BMI units, or 11-12 pounds at the average height. Semi-parametric models provide evidence of a diminishing marginal effect of smoking on BMI, while subsample regressions show that the impact is largest for younger individuals, those with no college degree, and those in the lowest quartile of baseline BMI.

The Economic Impact of Smoke-Free Policies on Restaurants, Cafés, and Bars: Panel Data Estimates From European Countries

In this paper, we investigate the extent to which the economic outcomes of restaurants, bars, and cafés have been affected by the introduction of anti-smoking regulations in Europe. We use an unexploited panel database to collect a comprehensive set of information on financial indicators regarding the balance sheets of private and public companies in various economic sectors. The results show that smoke-free policies did not significantly affect the firms' economic performance, irrespective of the balance sheet indicators analyzed. Moreover, the results are robust to various econometric specifications and suggest that the recent enforcement of anti-smoking legislation in Europe has improved public health without a corresponding negative impact on revenues and employment in the hospitality industry.

Public responses to a comprehensive smoking ban

Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to report public reactions to a total workplace smoking ban, including smoking behavior, attendance at bars and clubs, and attitudes toward a broader ban.

Design/methodology/approach

– Surveys were conducted in two adjacent jurisdictions, one of which instituted a total workplace smoking ban. Surveys took place before (n=1,609) and after (n=1,600) enactment of the ban in the relevant jurisdiction.

Findings

– No change in smoking prevalence occurred in the jurisdiction enacting the ban. Strong majorities of non-smokers supported the ban, while strong majorities of smokers expressed opposition. In the jurisdiction that enacted the ban, smokers who appeared to be high-volume consumers at bars and clubs were most likely to report reducing attendance at these establishments and to oppose the ban.

Research limitations/implications

– Surveys depend on accurate self-reporting of behavior and attitudes.

Practical implications

– Some bars and clubs may incur financial losses due to smoking bans. A core of strong opponents can undermine public consensus regarding smoking bans. Licensing a limited number of bars and clubs to allow smoking can safeguard this consensus.

Social implications

– Limited smoking bans can serve as a means of harm reduction, as non-smokers are protected from environmental tobacco smoke, and accommodation of smokers reduces their motivation to oppose bans.

Originality/value

– This investigation makes use of detailed data on the public’s thinking and reactions to a comprehensive smoking ban and is a before-after study with controls.

An international smoking ban-how many lives will be saved?

Multicomponent tobacco control strategies are crucial to combat the ongoing global smoking challenge. In the twenty-first century, many countries have signed up to the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, and in recent years a mounting number of countries and regions have implemented partial or complete smoking bans to protect the general public from passive smoke exposure. There is substantial evidence that workers, particularly in the hospitality sector, benefit from reduced exposure. More recently, several reports have appeared from different countries showing a temporal relationship between the introduction of a smoking ban and reduced hospital admissions for cardiovascular, respiratory and maternity outcomes. This will have a measurable benefit for public health, saving many lives. Multicomponent strategies could also reduce active smoking significantly if successfully implemented worldwide.

Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in Changsha City, China

This study aimed to investigate the association between meteorological-related risk factors and bacillary dysentery in a subtropical inland Chinese area: Changsha City. The cross-correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model were used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery. Monthly mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean air pressure, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature were significantly correlated with the number of bacillary dysentery cases with a 1-month lagged effect. The ARIMAX models suggested that a 1°C rise in mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature might lead to 14.8%, 12.9%, and 15.5% increases in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease, respectively. Temperature could be used as a forecast factor for the increase of bacillary dysentery in Changsha. More public health actions should be taken to prevent the increase of bacillary dysentery disease with consideration of local climate conditions, especially temperature.

Impact of the Irish smoking ban on sales in bars using a large business-level data set from 1999 to 2007

BACKGROUND

Ireland introduced comprehensive smoke-free workplace legislation in 2004. This study evaluates the economic impact of the workplace smoking ban on the value of sales in bars.

METHODS

Data on the value of bar sales were derived from a large, nationally representative, annual business-level survey from 1999 to 2007. The economic impact of the smoking ban was evaluated according to geographical region and bar size. Analysis was based on an econometric model which controlled for background changes in population income and wealth and for investments made by the bars during this period.

RESULTS

The overall impact of the Irish smoking ban on bar sales appears to be very small. The ban was associated with an increase in sales among medium to large bars in the Border-Midland-West (more rural) region of Ireland, and a small reduction in sales among large bars in the more urban, South-East region. We failed to find any evidence of a change in bar sales in the remaining categories studied.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that although some bars saw positive effects and some negative, the overall impact of the smoking ban on the value of sales in bars was negligible. These findings provide further supporting evidence that comprehensive smoke-free workplace legislation does not harm hospitality businesses while having positive health effects.