The effects of false identification laws on underage alcohol-related traffic fatalities

The effect of vertical identification card laws on teenage tobacco and alcohol use

We study the impact of vertical identification card laws, which changed the orientation of driver's licenses and state identification cards from horizontal to vertical for those under 21 years, on teenage tobacco and alcohol use. We study this question using four national datasets (pooled national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, National Youth Tobacco Survey, Current Population Survey to Tobacco Use Supplements, and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System). We improve previous databases of vertical ID law implementation by using original archival research to identify the exact date of the law change. We estimate models using standard two-way fixed effects and stacked difference-in-differences that avoid bias from dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects. Using data through 2021, we do not find evidence of reductions in teenage tobacco and alcohol use. While these laws reduce retail-based purchasing, they also increase social sourcing, thus leading to no net impact on use.

Intended and unintended effects of e-cigarette taxes on youth tobacco use

Over the past decade, rising youth use of e-cigarettes and other electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) has contributed to aggressive regulation by state and local governments. Between 2010 and mid-2019, ten states and two large counties adopted ENDS taxes. We use two large national surveys (Monitoring the Future and the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System) to estimate the impact of ENDS taxes on youth tobacco use. We find that ENDS taxes reduce youth ENDS consumption, with estimated ENDS tax elasticities of -0.06 to -0.21. However, we estimate sizable positive cigarette cross-tax effects, suggesting economic substitution between cigarettes and ENDS for youth. These substitution effects are particularly large for frequent cigarette smoking. We conclude that the unintended effects of ENDS taxation may considerably undercut or even outweigh any public health gains.