Conditional relative survival in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: Permanent excess mortality risk for long-term survivors

Efficacy of 18FDG-PET/CT in Detecting Synchronous Malignancies in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography and computed tomography (18FDG-PET/CT) in detecting second primary malignancies (SPMs) in patients with treatment naïve head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Scopus searched from 1946 to December 2022.

REVIEW METHODS

Studies reporting the performance of 18FDG-PET/CT in patients with treatment-naïve, index HNSCC for detection of SPMs were included. The reference standard was histopathology, clinical follow-up over the duration of study, and other imaging modalities. Multiple investigators completed depth full-text analysis. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis guidelines were followed. Methodologic and diagnostic accuracy data were abstracted independently by multiple investigators. Risk of bias assessment was conducted using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool independently. Bivariate random-effects model meta-analysis and multivariable meta-regression modeling were used.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies examining 4624 patients with a total of 475 SPMs were included in the final analysis. Eleven studies were found to be at low risk for bias, while the rest were in the high-risk category. 18FDG-PET/CT demonstrated pooled sensitivity and specificity of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49-0.88) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98-1.00) in detecting SPMs. Further subsite analysis revealed varied diagnostic performance across different anatomical regions, with sensitivity and specificity of esophageal SPMs being 0.47 (0.30-0.64) and 0.99 (0.98-1.00), and sensitivity and specificity of 0.86 (0.73-0.94) and 0.99 (0.98-1.00) for head and neck SPMs. Finally, this imaging modality showed sensitivity and specificity of 0.92 (0.84-0.96) and 0.99 (0.98-1.00) for lung SPMs.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study suggest varied accuracy of 18FDG-PET/CT in detecting SPMs during initial workup for HNSCC, highlighting the importance of screening modalities such as esophagoscopy in high-risk patients.

Clinical Features of Patients With Second Primary Lung Cancer After Head and Neck Cancer

BACKGROUND

In survivors of head and neck cancer (HNC), second primary lung cancer (SPLC) often develop as a result of a common risk factor, that is, smoking. A multicenter experience was reviewed to evaluate how the history of a diagnosis of HNC affects the outcomes of patients undergoing pulmonary resection for SPLC.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective analysis of patients hospitalized between January 2012 and December 2018 was performed. From a cohort of 4521 patients undergoing therapeutic pulmonary resection for primary non-small cell lung cancer, 100 patients with a previous history of HNC (HNC group) were identified. These patients were compared with a control group consisting of 200 patients without an HNC history from the same cohort pair-matched with operating facility, age, sex, and pathologic stage of lung cancer.

RESULTS

At the time of surgery for SPLC, the HNC group showed malnutrition with a lower prognostic nutritional index compared with the control group (P < .001). The HNC group was determined to have postoperative complications more frequently (P = .02). The 5-year overall survival rates in the HNC and control groups were 59.0% and 83.2%, respectively (P < .001). Statistically, HNC history, lower prognostic nutritional index, squamous cell lung cancer, and TNM stage were identified to be independently associated with poor survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with SPLC after primary HNC often present with malnutrition and are predisposed to postoperative complications and poor survival after pulmonary resection.

Risk of second primary cancer in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: a systemic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Second primary cancer is a common event in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. However, the incidence and relevant factors vary by studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies to estimate the incidence and relevant risk factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science were searched for studies published between January 2000 and December 2020 that reported the incidence of SPC in HNSCC patients. Per 1000-person-year incidence and odds ratios were used to estimate the incidence and potential risk factors. Due to the high heterogeneity, random-effects models were used to estimate the incidence and 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

Seven thousand seven hundred thirteen articles were identified from the databases, in which 60 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled incidence of the total, synchronous, and metachronous SPC in patients with HNSCC were 29.116 per 1000-person-year, 6.960 per 1000-person-year, and 26.025 per 1000-person-year, respectively. The head and neck region was the most common area where SPC occurred, followed by the lung (7.472 per 1000-person-year) and upper digestive tract (2.696 per 1000-person-year). Smoking, alcohol consumption, betel quid chewing, primary cancer of T1-2, and N0 were risk factors, while HPV infection (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.30-0.72) was the protective factor.

CONCLUSIONS

SPC is frequently observed in HNSCC patients and had great impact on the prognosis. The findings could promote a more individualized follow-up strategy for SPC in HNSCC patients.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

This systemic review and meta-analysis provide sufficient evidence for the establishment of the follow-up strategy for head and neck squamous cancer patients.

Cause of Death in Patients with Oropharyngeal Carcinoma by Human Papillomavirus Status: Comparative Data Analysis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCC) has increased in recent decades, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the main cause of OPSCC. The data regarding causes of death (CODs) are vitally important in informing follow-up strategies and revising treatment strategies to deal with any possible preventable treatment-related COD. However, limited studies have assessed the competing COD by HPV status in patients with OPSCC.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to analyze the distribution of the competing COD according to HPV status in OPSCC.

METHODS

We retrospectively included stage I-IVB patients with OPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2010 and 2015. The association between HPV status and head and neck cancer-specific mortality (HNCSM), second primary cancer mortality (SPCM), and noncancer-caused mortality (NCCM) were analyzed. The chi-square test, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Fine and Gray model were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

We included 5852 patients in this study and 73.2% (n=4283) of them had HPV-related tumors. A total of 1537 (26.3%) patients died, including 789 (51.3%), 333 (21.7%), and 415 (27%) patients who died from head and neck cancer, second cancer, and noncancer causes, respectively. The 5-year HNCSM, SPCM, NCCM, and overall mortality were 14.7%, 6.5%, 7.7%, and 26.4%, respectively. Those with HPV-positive disease had a lower cumulative incidence of HNCSM (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.362, 95% CI 0.315-0.417; P<.001), SPCM (sHR 0.400, 95% CI 0.321-0.496; P<.001), and NCCM (sHR 0.460, 95% CI 0.378-0.560; P<.001) than those with HPV-negative disease. The 5-year risk of HNCSM was 26.9% and 10.7% in those with HPV-negative and HPV-positive disease, respectively (P<.001). The 5-year risk of SPCM was 12.4% and 4.6% in those with HPV-negative and HPV-positive disease, respectively (P<.001). The 5-year risk of NCCM of death was 13.7% and 5.8% in those with HPV-negative and HPV-positive disease, respectively (P<.001). Using the Fine and Gray competing-risks model, our results show that those with HPV-negative tumors had a significantly higher risk of HNCSM (P<.001), SPCM (P<.001), and NCCM (P<.001) than those with HPV-negative tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV-positive OPSCC has a lower NCSM, SPCM, and NCCM as compared to those with HPV-negative OPSCC. HPV positivity is a favorable prognostic factor in the context of overcoming cancer as well as in terms of reducing the risk of other CODs in OPSCC. Our finding supports the need to tailor patient follow-up based on the HPV status of patients with OPSCC.

Racial and rural-urban disparities in cardiovascular risk factors among patients with head and neck cancer in a clinical cohort

BACKGROUND

Evidence on distribution of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is limited. We assessed disparities in prevalence and incidence of CVD risk factors in patients with HNSCC.

METHODS

Electronic health records (EHR) data on 2262 patients with HNSCC diagnosed between 2012 and 2018 at a NCI-designated cancer center were included. Prevalence of CVD risk factors at baseline and incidence at 1-year post HNSCC diagnosis were assessed using logistic and robust Poisson regression, respectively.

RESULTS

At baseline, 31.72% white patients with HNSCC had dyslipidemia, compared to 24.29% blacks (p < 0.008); diabetes was more prevalent in blacks (p < 0.027). Odds of ≥1 prevalent CVD clinical risk factor at baseline was lower in blacks (OR, 95%CI: 0.71, 0.54-0.93) and in rural patients (OR, 95%CI: 0.70, 0.58-0.85). At 1 year, risk of incident diabetes was higher in rural patients (RR, 95%CI: 1.63, 1.21-2.19).

CONCLUSIONS

Demographic disparities were observed in distribution of CVD risk factors in patients with HNSCC.

The risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke in survivors of head and neck cancer in Korea

BACKGROUND

Head and neck cancer (HNCA) survivors have a high risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) or stroke because of sharing risk factors of disease. Therefore, we investigated the risk of CVD or stroke occurrence among HNCA survivors in Korea based on the Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) Service claims database.

METHODS

We retrieved claims data of patients who were diagnosed with HNCA in 2014-2015 using ICD-10 code and followed up data until 2018. Patients with newly diagnosed with CVD or stroke after HNCA diagnosis during the follow-up period were detected. We analyzed the characteristics of patients with HNCA who were subsequently diagnosed with CVD or stroke. In addition, the risk factors of CVD or stroke occurrence were investigated using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 8288 patients with HNCA, 477 and 404 patients were diagnosed with new-onset CVD and stroke, respectively. Patients with hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), and hyperlipidemia had a 3.25-fold higher risk of CVD comparing to patients without any underlying disease (95% confidence index [CI], 2.38-4.45) Patients with three underlying diseases had a 2.92-fold higher risk of stroke compared to patients without any underlying disease (95% CI 2.03-4.21).

CONCLUSIONS

HNCA survivors with hypertension, DM, and hyperlipidemia should be cautious of the risks of CVD and stroke.

Causes of long-term mortality in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas

Purpose

After treatment of a head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), patients with an adequate control of the tumor have a decreased overall survival when compared to age- and gender-matched controls in the general population. The aim of our study was to analyze the causes of long-term mortality in patients with HNSCC.

Methods

We carried out a retrospective study of 5122 patients with an index HNSCC treated at our center between 1985 and 2018. We analyzed the survival considering three causes of death: mortality associated with the HNSCC index tumor, mortality associated with a second or successive neoplasm, and mortality associated with a non-cancer cause.

Results

After the diagnosis of an HNSCC the most frequent cause of death is the head and neck tumor itself during the first 3.5 years of follow-up. Thereafter, mortality is more frequently associated with competing causes of death, such as second malignancies and non-cancer causes. Mortality associated with second and successive neoplasms was 2.3% per year, a percentage that was maintained constant throughout the follow-up. Likewise, mortality attributable to non-cancer causes was 1.6% per year, which also remained constant. There were differences in the mortality patterns according to the characteristics of the patients.

Conclusion

There are differences in the mortality patterns of patients with HNSCC depending on their characteristics. Knowledge of these patterns can help in the design of guidelines to improve the follow-up protocols of this group of patients to optimize the clinical cost-effectiveness.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00405-021-07211-8.

Trends of Ten Leading Causes of Death in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

An understanding of the leading causes of death in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) would be helpful to inform doctors, patients, and healthcare providers on disease management. This study aimed to comprehensively study the leading causes of death in these survivors.

METHODS

We investigated the trends of risk factors for major causes of death in patients with HNSCC. Causes of death in HNSCC were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. We characterized trends in the 5-year cumulative mortality as well as risk factors associated with the ten leading causes of death.

RESULTS

Among 48 297 deaths identified, the ten leading causes were as follows: HNSCC, heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cerebrovascular disease, pneumonia & influenza, accidents & adverse effects, esophagus cancer, chronic liver diseases, and septicemia. Non-HNSCC deaths surpassed HNSCC deaths 4 years after cancer diagnosis. There was a significant decline in the 5-year cumulative mortality from HNSCC, heart disease, lung cancer, COPD, cerebrovascular disease, and esophagus cancer. The risks of mortality from the ten leading causes varied with patient characteristics.

CONCLUSION

Our findings provide a useful picture of mortality patterns in HNSCC survivors, which might help when planning personalized HNSCC care.

Integrative Analysis of TP53INP2 in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

TP53INP2 plays an important role in regulating gene transcription and starvation-induced autophagy, however, its function in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed the expression and prognostic value of TP53INP2. In addition, RNAseq, miRNAseq, copy number variation, and mutation profiles from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset were applied to evaluate the distinctive genomic patterns related to TP53INP2 expression. We found that TP53INP2 expression was lower in HNSCC compared with normal controls. Patients with higher TP53INP2 expression had longer survival time. Knockdown of TP53INP2 promoted cell viability. Functional analysis exhibited that TP53INP2 was linked to DNA replication, DNA repair, cell cycle, and multiple metabolic pathways. Moreover, TP53INP2 might affect the expression of multiple genes via enhancing the transcriptional activity of nuclear hormone receptors. A competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network consisting of 33 lncRNAs, eight miRNAs, and 13 mRNAs was constructed based on the expression of TP53INP2. Taken together, our study highlights the potential value of TP53INP2 in predicting the survival of HNSCC and its important role in the genesis and development of HNSCC.

Metachronous primary cancer of the tongue and malignant lymphoma of the small intestine: A case report

RATIONALE

Oral cancer often causes secondary primary cancers in the upper gastrointestinal tract. However, there are no reports of secondary primary cancers in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma and malignant lymphoma of the small intestine. This report describes a case of metachronous multiple primary cancers of the tongue and small intestine malignant lymphoma.

PATIENTS CONCERNS

The patient was admitted to our department with the chief complaint of pain in the right tongue. Partial tongue resection and supraomohyoid neck dissection were performed. One year after surgery, the patient experienced abdominal pain and bloody stools.

DIAGNOSIS

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) was diagnosed via histological examination.

INTERVENTIONS

A terminal ileum resection was performed. Postoperatively, the patient received 6 courses of rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin hydrochloride, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP).

OUTCOMES

Five years after his initial diagnosis, there is no evidence of recurrence, metastasis, or other primary cancer.

LESSONS

Oral cancer patients should always be followed up owing to a possibility of malignant tumors in other areas.

Comprehensive Analysis of Prognostic Alternative Splicing Signatures in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Background

Alternative splicing (AS) plays an essential role in tumorigenesis and progression. This study aimed to develop a novel prognostic model based on the AS events to obtain more accurate survival prediction and search for potential therapeutic targets in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC).

Methods

Seven types of AS events in 326 OSCC patients with RNA-seq were obtained from the TCGA SpliceSeq tool and the TCGA database. Cox analysis, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression and random forest were employed to establish prognostic models. Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) was adopted to estimate the possible drug sensiticity. Prognostic splicing factor (SF)-AS network was constructed by Cytoscape.

Results

The final model included 12 AS events, showing satisfactory performance. The area under the curve for 3- and 5-year survival in the training cohort was 0.83 and 0.82, respectively while that in internal validation was 0.83 and 0.82 accordingly. The calibration curve also indicated a satisfactory agreement between the observation and the predictive values. Low-risk patients stratified by the final model presented higher sensitivity to three chemo drugs. Besides, the prognostic SF-AS regulatory network contained five key SFs and 62 AS events.

Conclusions

We developed a powerful prognostic AS signature for OSCC and deepened the understanding of SF-AS network regulatory mechanisms. Low-risk patients tended to be more sensitive to the three chemo drugs while five key SFs including CELF2, TIA1, HNRNPC, HNRNPK, and SRSF9 were identified as potential prognostic biomarkers, which may offer new prospects for effective therapies of OSCC.

Susceptibility of Multiple Primary Cancers in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer: Nature or Nurture?

Multiple primary cancers (MPCs) are major obstacles to long-term survival in head and neck cancer (HNSCC), however, the molecular mechanism underlying multiple carcinogenesis remains unclear. “Field cancerization” is a classical theory to elaborate the malignant progression of MPCs. Apart from environmental and immune factors, genetic factors may have great potential as molecular markers for MPCs risk prediction. This review focuses on inherited and acquired gene mutations in MPCs, including germ-line mutation, single-nucleotide polymorphism, chromosomal instability, microsatellite instability and DNA methylation. And definition and prognosis of MPCs have also been discussed. These may pave the way for the early detection, prevention and effective treatment of MPCs in HNSCC.

Incidence and Risk of Second Primary Malignant Neoplasm After a First Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Importance

Second primary malignant neoplasms (SPMNs) are the leading cause of death in survivors of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Recently, human papillomavirus (HPV) has emerged as a risk factor for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma and has different prognosis from classic tobacco/alcohol-associated HNSCC. This suggests that there also may be different risks and burden of SPMNs among patients who's HNSCC were from HPV or tobacco and/or alcohol.

Objective

To assess SPMN risks and burden in a large US cohort of patients with a first potentially HPV-associated HNSCC vs non-HPV-associated HNSCC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this population-based retrospective cohort study, 109 512 adult patients diagnosed with HNSCC between 2000 and 2014 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry.

Exposures

HPV-relatedness based on whether patients' first HNSCC was potentially associated with HPV. Patients were grouped into 2 cohorts: potentially HPV-associated HNSCC, and non-HPV-associated HNSCC.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was incidence of SPMN (defined as the first subsequent primary cancer occurring at least 2 months after first cancer diagnosis). Excess SPMN risk was calculated using relative (standardized incidence ratios [SIRs]) and absolute (excess absolute risk [EAR] per 10 000 person-years at risk [PYR]).

Results

A total of 109 512 patients with HNSCC (mean [SD] age, 61.9 [12.1] years; 83 305 [76.1%] men) were identified. The overall SIR was 2.18 (95% CI, 2.14-2.22) corresponding to 160 excess cases per 10 000 PYR. The risk among patients with first potentially HPV-associated HNSCC (SIR, 1.98; EAR, 114 excess cases per 10 000 PYR) was lower than those with first non-HPV-associated HNSCC (SIR, 2.28; EAR, 188 excess cases per 10 000 PYR). Overall, the largest SIRs and EARs were observed for cancers of the head and neck, lung, and esophagus. However, the risks of SPMN were lower among potentially HPV-associated HNSCC patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

Patients diagnosed with HNSCC experience excess risk of SPMN, which was higher among those with non-HPV-associated HNSCC than from potentially HPV-associated HNSCC. Clinicians should implement strategies that prevent or detect SPMN early in patients with HNSCC.

Determinants of long-term survival in a population-based cohort study of patients with head and neck cancer from Scotland

BACKGROUND

We investigated long-term survival from head and neck cancer (HNC) using different survival approaches.

METHODS

Patients were followed-up from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer. Overall survival and disease-specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Net survival was calculated by the Pohar-Perme method. Mutually adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the predictors of survival.

RESULTS

A total of 1820 patients were included in the analyses. Overall survival at 12 years was 26.3% (24.3%, 28.3%). Disease-specific survival at 12 years was 56.9% (54.3%, 59.4%). Net survival at 12 years was 41.4% (37.6%, 45.1%).

CONCLUSION

Determinants associated with long-term survival included age, stage, treatment modality, WHO performance status, alcohol consumption, smoking behavior, and anatomical site. We recommend that net survival is used for long-term outcomes for HNC patients-it disentangles other causes of death, which are overestimated in overall survival and underestimated in disease-specific survival.

Risk and outcomes for second primary human papillomavirus-related and -unrelated head and neck malignancy

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS

To 1) examine the characteristics of patients who develop second primary malignancies (SPMs) from an index human papillomavirus (HPV)-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and HPV-unrelated HNSCC and to 2) compare overall survival between those with HPV-related and HPV-unrelated index HNSCC among patients who develop SPM.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort analysis.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted of 113,259 patients who were diagnosed with HNSCC from 2000 to 2014. SPM was defined as the first subsequent primary cancer occurring at least 2 months after index cancer diagnosis, and HPV-relatedness was based on whether patients' index HNSCC was potentially HPV-related or HPV-unrelated. Multivariable Fine and Gray (FG) competing-risks regression models were used to estimate factors associated with risk of SPM by HPV-relatedness. Among patients with SPM, an adjusted Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression model was used to assess the association between HPV-relatedness and survival.

RESULTS

Approximately 13,900 patients (12.3%) developed SPM. In the FG model, patients with HPV-unrelated HNSCC had a 15% higher risk of developing SPM (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.15, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.20) than those with potentially HPV-related HNSCC, but the same characteristics were associated with SPM development. In the Cox PH model, patients with SPM whose index HNSCC was HPV-unrelated had higher risk of death than those whose index HNSCC was potentially HPV-related (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.06; 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with HPV-unrelated HNSCC have a higher risk of SPM development than do those with HPV-related HNSCC. Effective secondary disease-prevention strategies should be established to improve long-term patient outcomes.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

NA Laryngoscope, 129:1828-1835, 2019.

Competing mortality in oropharyngeal carcinoma according to human papillomavirus status

BACKGROUND

The objective of the present study is to assess differences in the competing causes of death in patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) as a function of the human papillomavirus (HPV) status.

METHODS

We studied retrospectively 423 patients with OPC with known HPV status. Among the patients included in the study, 53 (12.5%) were HPV-positive. We analyzed overall survival and competing causes of mortality according to the HPV status of the patients.

RESULTS

Patients with HPV-negative tumors had lower OPC cancer-specific survival (P = .0001), second primary neoplasm survival (P = .0001), and noncancer-related causes survival (P = .13) than patients with HPV-positive tumors. This resulted in significant differences in overall survival depending on HPV status (P = .0001).

CONCLUSION

Conclusion: HPV-positive OPC has a better overall survival than HPV-negative OPC. Patients with HPV-positive tumors presented a significant lower OPC cancer-specific and second primary neoplasm mortality and a marginally nonsignificant lower noncancer mortality as compared to HPV-negative tumors.

Understanding Interactions of Smoking on Prognosis of HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Cancers

The new 8th edition AJCC/UICC staging system for human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), developed to account for improved survival outcomes over HPV-negative cancers, includes anatomic features strictly associated with tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) and does not account for patient-specific characteristics that may impact prognosis. This commentary evaluates the evidence of smoking as an adverse prognostic factor in HPV-associated OPSCC. We review the multifactorial biological, clinical, and social/behavioral characteristics of smokers with OPSCC that impact outcomes, discuss current challenges with incorporating smoking history in prognostic classifications, and consider opportunities for future investigation.

Prognostic Factors as a Function of Disease-free Interval After Definitive (Chemo)radiation for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Using Conditional Survival Analysis

PURPOSE

We analyzed overall and disease-free survival (OS and DFS) after definitive (chemo)radiation for stage III non-small cell lung cancer with 2 statistical methods: Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis, with diagnosis as index date, and conditional survival (CS) analysis, with a variety of disease-free index dates, and determined whether prognostic factors varied based on the reference date.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All 651 patients analyzed received definitive (chemo)radiotherapy for stage III non-small cell lung cancer in November 1998 to December 2010 at a single institution; all had Karnofsky performance status scores ≥60 and received ≥60 Gy. OS and DFS were first calculated with the KM method, and then CS was used to calculate 2 outcomes: OS conditioned on DFS time (OS|DFS) and DFS conditioned on DFS time (DFS|DFS). Factors predicting OS and DFS conditioned on 1-, 2-, and 3-year DFS were sought in univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

KM analysis produced 1-, 2-, and 3-year DFS rates of 48%, 30%, and 26%; OS rates were 64%, 41%, and 29%. By CS analysis, both OS|DFS and DFS|DFS showed an increase in 5-year OS after 6 months, and CS after 30 months approached 100%. On multivariate analyses, age and concurrent chemoradiation predicted OS|DFS; age, smoking history, tumor histology, disease stage, and radiation dose predicted DFS|DFS.

CONCLUSIONS

CS analysis showed that the probability of long-term survival increases sharply after 6 months with no evidence of disease; factors predicting survival differed based on the method and endpoint used.

Extrapolation of Survival Curves from Cancer Trials Using External Information

BACKGROUND

Estimates of life expectancy are a key input to cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models for cancer treatments. Due to the limited follow-up in Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs), parametric models are frequently used to extrapolate survival outcomes beyond the RCT period. However, different parametric models that fit the RCT data equally well may generate highly divergent predictions of treatment-related gain in life expectancy. Here, we investigate the use of information external to the RCT data to inform model choice and estimation of life expectancy.

METHODS

We used Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis to combine the RCT data with external information on general population survival, conditional survival from cancer registry databases, and expert opinion. We illustrate with a 5-year follow-up RCT of cetuximab plus radiotherapy v. radiotherapy alone for head and neck cancer.

RESULTS

Standard survival time distributions were insufficiently flexible to simultaneously fit both the RCT data and external data on general population survival. Using spline models, we were able to estimate a model that was consistent with the trial data and all external data. A model integrating all sources achieved an adequate fit and predicted a 4.7-month (95% CrL: 0.4; 9.1) gain in life expectancy due to cetuximab.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term extrapolation using parametric models based on RCT data alone is highly unreliable and these models are unlikely to be consistent with external data. External data can be integrated with RCT data using spline models to enable long-term extrapolation. Conditional survival data could be used for many cancers and general population survival may have a role in other conditions. The use of external data should be guided by knowledge of natural history and treatment mechanisms.

PET-NECK: a multicentre randomised Phase III non-inferiority trial comparing a positron emission tomography-computerised tomography-guided watch-and-wait policy with planned neck dissection in the management of locally advanced (N2/N3) nodal metastases in patients with squamous cell head and neck cancer

BACKGROUND

Planned neck dissection (ND) after radical chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for locally advanced nodal metastases in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains controversial. Thirty per cent of ND specimens show histological evidence of tumour. Consequently, a significant proportion of clinicians still practise planned ND. Fludeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET)-computerised tomography (CT) scanning demonstrated high negative predictive values for persistent nodal disease, providing a possible alternative paradigm to ND. Evidence is sparse and drawn mainly from retrospective single-institution studies, illustrating the need for a prospective randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of PET-CT-guided surveillance, compared with planned ND, in a multicentre, prospective, randomised setting.

DESIGN

A pragmatic randomised non-inferiority trial comparing PET-CT-guided watch-and-wait policy with the current planned ND policy in HNSCC patients with locally advanced nodal metastases and treated with radical CRT. Patients were randomised in a 1 : 1 ratio. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and cost-effectiveness [incremental cost per incremental quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)]. Cost-effectiveness was assessed over the trial period using individual patient data, and over a lifetime horizon using a decision-analytic model. Secondary outcomes were recurrence in the neck, complication rates and quality of life. The recruitment of 560 patients was planned to detect non-inferior OS in the intervention arm with a 90% power and a type I error of 5%, with non-inferiority defined as having a hazard ratio (HR) of no higher than 1.50. An intention-to-treat analysis was performed by Cox's proportional hazards model.

SETTINGS

Thirty-seven head and neck cancer-treating centres (43 NHS hospitals) throughout the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with locally advanced nodal metastases of oropharynx, hypopharynx, larynx, oral or occult HNSCC receiving CRT and fit for ND were recruited.

INTERVENTION

Patients randomised to planned ND before or after CRT (control), or CRT followed by fludeoxyglucose PET-CT 10-12 weeks post CRT with ND only if PET-CT showed incomplete or equivocal response of nodal disease (intervention). Balanced by centre, planned ND timing, CRT schedule, disease site and the tumour, node, metastasis stage.

RESULTS

In total, 564 patients were recruited (ND arm, n = 282; and surveillance arm, n = 282; 17% N2a, 61% N2b, 18% N2c and 3% N3). Eighty-four per cent had oropharyngeal cancer. Seventy-five per cent of tested cases were p16 positive. The median time to follow-up was 36 months. The HR for OS was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65 to 1.32], indicating non-inferiority. The upper limit of the non-inferiority HR margin of 1.50, which was informed by patient advisors to the project, lies at the 99.6 percentile of this estimate (p = 0.004). There were no differences in this result by p16 status. There were 54 NDs performed in the surveillance arm, with 22 surgical complications, and 221 NDs in the ND arm, with 85 complications. Quality-of-life scores were slightly better in the surveillance arm. Compared with planned ND, PET-CT surveillance produced an incremental net health benefit of 0.16 QALYs (95% CI 0.03 to 0.28 QALYs) over the trial period and 0.21 QALYs (95% CI -0.41 to 0.85 QALYs) over the modelled lifetime horizon.

LIMITATIONS

Pragmatic randomised controlled trial with a 36-month median follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

PET-CT-guided active surveillance showed similar survival outcomes to ND but resulted in considerably fewer NDs, fewer complications and lower costs, supporting its use in routine practice.

FUTURE WORK

PET-CT surveillance is cost-effective in the short term, and long-term cost-effectiveness could be addressed in future work.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13735240.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cardiovascular risk and prevention in patients with head and neck cancer treated with radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The underlying contributors to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are poorly characterized.

METHODS

Patients with HNSCC who underwent definitive or adjuvant (chemo)radiation between 2011 and 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. The 10-year risk estimates for a CVD event were calculated according to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS).

RESULTS

One hundred fifteen patients with predominantly stage III/IV HNSCC had a median follow-up of 2 years. At diagnosis, 23% of patients had CVD. The FRS was higher among patients with laryngeal cancer versus other sites (20.5% vs 14.4%). Twenty-four percent of all patients had uncontrolled blood pressure at diagnosis. Among the patients with CVD, 41% were not taking antiplatelet therapy and 30% were not taking statin therapy. Thirty-four percent of patients without CVD had indications for initiating statin therapy.

CONCLUSION

Patients with HNSCC have a high baseline CVD risk and many do not receive optimal preventive care. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 39: 527-532, 2017.

Head and Neck Cancer Survivorship Care Guideline: American Society of Clinical Oncology Clinical Practice Guideline Endorsement of the American Cancer Society Guideline

Purpose This guideline provides recommendations on the management of adults after head and neck cancer (HNC) treatment, focusing on surveillance and screening for recurrence or second primary cancers, assessment and management of long-term and late effects, health promotion, care coordination, and practice implications. Methods ASCO has a policy and set of procedures for endorsing clinical practice guidelines that have been developed by other professional organizations. The American Cancer Society (ACS) HNC Survivorship Care Guideline was reviewed for developmental rigor by methodologists. An ASCO Expert Panel reviewed the content and recommendations, offering modifications and/or qualifying statements when deemed necessary. Results The ASCO Expert Panel determined that the ACS HNC Survivorship Care Guideline, published in 2016, is clear, thorough, clinically practical, and helpful, despite the limited availability of high-quality evidence to support many of the recommendations. ASCO endorsed the ACS HNC Survivorship Care Guideline, adding qualifying statements aimed at promoting team-based, multispecialty, multidisciplinary, collaborative head and neck survivorship care. Recommendations The ASCO Expert Panel emphasized that caring for HNC survivors requires a team-based approach that includes primary care clinicians, oncology specialists, otolaryngologists, dentists, and other allied professionals. The HNC treatment team should educate the primary care clinicians and patients about the type(s) of treatment received, the likelihood of potential recurrence, and the potential late and long-term complications. Primary care clinicians should recognize symptoms of recurrence and coordinate a prompt evaluation. They should also be prepared to manage late effects either directly or by referral to appropriate specialists. Health promotion is critical, particularly regarding tobacco cessation and dental care. Additional information is available at www.asco.org/HNC-Survivorship-endorsement and www.asco.org/guidelineswiki .

Second primary lung cancers following a diagnosis of primary head and neck cancer

OBJECTIVES

Second primary lung cancers (SPLC) are not uncommon in survivors of squamous cell head and neck cancer (HNSCC), and carry a worse prognosis than when patients present with a primary lung cancer. We reviewed our institutional experience on the treatment and prognosis of SPLC patients, both at the time of diagnosis, and following treatment of HNSCC, in order to explore treatment outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Our institutional database was queried for patients with a diagnosis of HNSCC and lung cancer, between 2000 and 2013. Only HNSCC patients with tumors of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx and larynx were eligible. Patients were stratified between synchronous and metachronous HNSCC and SPLC. Cox regression analysis was performed to determine factors predictive of overall survival (OS) in metachronous presentations.

RESULTS

181 eligible patients were identified for analysis, comprising 40 synchronous and 141 metachronous HNSCC-SPLC. Patients presenting with synchronous SPLC were more likely to have early-stage disease, as compared to patients with metachronous SPLC (45% vs. 28%, respectively; p=0.036). Patients with early stage SPLC had a significantly better survival compared to those with locally advanced (p<0.001) and metastatic disease (p<0.001), with a median OS of 95.4 months vs. 11.0 and 4.6 months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the survival of patients treated for early-stage NSCLC were good, the OS of the entire cohort of SPLC after HNSCC was poor as a majority of patients presented with advanced disease. The use of CT screening strategies in this patient population warrants further investigation.

Prediction of survival with alternative modeling techniques using pseudo values

Background

The use of alternative modeling techniques for predicting patient survival is complicated by the fact that some alternative techniques cannot readily deal with censoring, which is essential for analyzing survival data. In the current study, we aimed to demonstrate that pseudo values enable statistically appropriate analyses of survival outcomes when used in seven alternative modeling techniques.

Methods

In this case study, we analyzed survival of 1282 Dutch patients with newly diagnosed Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) with conventional Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. We subsequently calculated pseudo values to reflect the individual survival patterns. We used these pseudo values to compare recursive partitioning (RPART), neural nets (NNET), logistic regression (LR) general linear models (GLM) and three variants of support vector machines (SVM) with respect to dichotomous 60-month survival, and continuous pseudo values at 60 months or estimated survival time. We used the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and the root of the mean squared error (RMSE) to compare the performance of these models using bootstrap validation.

Results

Of a total of 1282 patients, 986 patients died during a median follow-up of 66 months (60-month survival: 52% [95% CI: 50%−55%]). The LR model had the highest optimism corrected AUC (0.791) to predict 60-month survival, followed by the SVM model with a linear kernel (AUC 0.787). The GLM model had the smallest optimism corrected RMSE when continuous pseudo values were considered for 60-month survival or the estimated survival time followed by SVM models with a linear kernel. The estimated importance of predictors varied substantially by the specific aspect of survival studied and modeling technique used.

Conclusions

The use of pseudo values makes it readily possible to apply alternative modeling techniques to survival problems, to compare their performance and to search further for promising alternative modeling techniques to analyze survival time.

Real-world cost-effectiveness of cetuximab in locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

Clinical trial EMR 62202-006 demonstrates prolonged median locoregional control (24.4 vs. 14.9 months), progression-free survival (17.1 vs. 12.4 months) and overall survival (49.0 vs. 29.3 months) for patients who receive cetuximab added to the comparator radiotherapy for locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (LA SCCHN). In the Netherlands, hospitals receive reimbursement for cetuximab conditional on cost-effectiveness in daily practice. To estimate the real-world incremental cost per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for radiotherapy + cetuximab over radiotherapy alone in first line treatment of LA SCCHN, a Markov model is constructed with health states "alive without progression", "alive following progression" and "death". Transition probabilities per month are estimated from clinical trial data and retrospectively collected real-world data from two Dutch head and neck cancer treatment centres (2007-2010, n = 141). 5-year, 10-year and lifetime horizons are used, without and with discounting (4 % costs, 1.5 % effects) to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Two scenarios explore different assumptions on prognosis of real-world versus trial patients. Adding cetuximab to radiotherapy results in increased costs and health gains in both scenarios and across each of the time horizons. Incremental costs per QALY gained range between <euro>14,624 and <euro>38,543 in the base-case. For a willingness to pay of <euro>80,000 per QALY, the acceptability curves for the different scenarios show probabilities between 0.76 and 0.87 of radiotherapy + cetuximab being cost-effective compared to radiotherapy alone. Current results show the combined treatment of radiotherapy + cetuximab to be a cost-effective treatment option for patients with LA SCCHN.

Causes of death in long-term survivors of head and neck cancer

BACKGROUND

Survivors of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) face excess mortality from multiple causes.

METHODS

We used the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry data to evaluate the causes of death in patients with nonmetastatic HNSCC diagnosed between 1992 and 2005 who survived at least 3 years from diagnosis (long-term survivors). We used competing-risks proportional hazards regression to estimate probabilities of death from causes: HNSCC, second primary malignancy (SPM) excluding HNSCC, cardiovascular disease, and other causes.

RESULTS

We identified 35,958 three-year survivors of HNSCC with a median age at diagnosis of 60 years (range = 18-100 years) and a median follow-up of 7.7 years (range = 3-18 years). There were 13,120 deaths during the study period. Death from any cause at 5 and 10 years was 15.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15.0%-15.8%) and 41.0% (95% CI = 40.4%-41.6%), respectively. There were 3852 HNSCC deaths including both primary and subsequent head and neck tumors. The risk of death from HNSCC was greater in patients with nasopharynx or hypopharynx cancer and in patients with locally advanced disease. SPM was the leading cause of non-HNSCC death, and the most common sites of SPM death were lung (53%), esophagus (10%), and colorectal (5%) cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Many long-term HNSCC survivors die from cancers other than HNSCC and from noncancer causes. Routine follow-up care for HNSCC survivors should expand beyond surveillance for recurrent and new head and neck cancers.

The impact of second primary malignancies on head and neck cancer survivors: a nationwide cohort study

Background

Head and neck cancer (HNC) is associated with a high rate of developing second primary malignancies(SPMs). But the impact on survival remains poorly understood before. Therefore, we want to estimate the impact of SPMs on HNC survivors.

Methods and Findings

Between 1986 and 2008, a total of 9,996 SPMs were recorded for 93,891 patients with an initial diagnosis of HNC by the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Patients were followed with national death registry database to 2011.Using the Kaplan–Meier method, a time-dependent covariate was employed to compare the survival rates between patients with and without SPMs. A Cox proportional hazards model that treated age and sex as confounders was used to examine the hazard ratios of SPMs. The relative survival rates were calculated using age- and sex-specific life tables for the population. Parametric mixture cure fraction models were then employed to estimate the percentage of cancer survivors who would be cured. Use of the Kaplan–Meier method showed that the crude survival rates differed significantly for patients with and patients without SPMs (log-rank test <0.01). For the results of Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, SPMs had a significant influence on survival rates with univariate (HR 2.59,95% CI 2.53to 2.65) and multivariate analysis (HR 2.34, 2.28 to 2.40). Patients with SPMs of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) had the highest cure rate at 39%, where as esophageal and lung cancer had the worst prognosis, with a cure rate of 11%.

Conclusions

A worse prognosis was found for second primary cancer such as esophageal or lung cancer. Patients and healthcare providers must strongly consider and have a high clinical suspicion of these SPMs.