Persistent ascites and low serum sodium identify patients with cirrhosis and low MELD scores who are at high risk for early death

Nomograms for predicting short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver disease caused by the combination of hepatitis B virus and alcohol

This study aimed to identify predictive factors for the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) due to both hepatitis B virus (HBV) and alcohol and to develop prognostic models to improve treatment management. AoCLD patients with HBV and alcohol as etiological factors were selected from two multicenter prospective cohorts (NCT02457637,NCT03641872) and included in separate training and validation cohorts (n = 180 and n = 148). In the training cohort, the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy score) and CATCH-LIFE B nomogram (based on age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, serum albumin, white blood cell, platelet count, and hepatic encephalopathy score) had discriminatory ability for predicting 28-day (c-indexes of 0.910 and 0.899) and 90-day mortality (c-indexes of 0.878 and 0.887, respectively). The area under the curve values for 28-day and 90-day mortality prediction by the CATCH-LIFE A nomogram were 0.922 (95% CI : 0.874, 0.971) and 0.905 (0.856, 0.956), respectively, while those for the CATCH-LIFE B nomogram were 0.916(0.861,0.972) and 0.915 (0.866,0.964), respectively. Similar performance results were observed in the validation cohort. Optimal cut-off scores for each nomogram could be used for patient stratification in high- and low-risk groups, and the high-risk groups showed shorter survival times than the low-risk groups in both the training and validation cohorts. Two nomograms constructed from the first short-term follow-up data from patients with AoCLD due to combined HBV infection and alcohol exposure showed good predictive performance for 28-day and 90-day mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

Hospital Mortality in Acute Decompensation of Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis: Can Novel Survival Markers Outperform Traditional Ones?

Background: There is a strong correlation between systemic inflammation intensity and clinical presentation, disease progression, and survival during liver cirrhosis decompensation. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of blood-based biomarkers as meta-inflammation markers, including NLR, PLR, LMR, INPR, MPR, ALBI, FIB4, and APRI, in predicting hospital mortality in patients with acute decompensation of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis. Methods: Data from 411 patients with their first onset of acute decompensation were analyzed, forming two groups: deceased and survived during hospitalization. Generalized partial least squares regression analysis was applied to explore the effects of surrogate indicators on mortality rates, using mortality rate as the dependent variable. Root Mean Square Error, Akaike's, and Bayesian information criteria determined that four components accounted for most of the variance. Results: Variables with significant negative contributions to the outcome prediction (ranked by standardized regression coefficients) were encephalopathy grade, total bilirubin, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, MELD, NLR, MPV, FIB4, INR, PLR, and ALT. Coefficient sizes ranged from -0.63 to -0.09, with p-values from 0 to 0.018. Conclusions: NLR, PLR, and FIB4 significantly contribute to hospital mortality prediction in patients with acute decompensation of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis. Conversely, some variables used to predict liver disease severity, including INPR, APRI, LMR, and ALBI score, did not significantly contribute to hospital mortality prediction in this patient population.

Hyponatremia in the Context of Liver Disease

Hyponatremia is common in patients with liver disease and is associated with increased mortality, morbidity, and a reduced quality of life. In liver transplantation, the inclusion of hyponatremia in organ allocation scores has reduced waitlist mortality. Portal hypertension and the resulting lowering of the effective arterial blood volume are important pathogenetic factors, but in most patients with liver disease, hyponatremia is multifactorial. Treatment requires a multifaceted approach that tries to reduce electrolyte-free water intake, restore urinary dilution, and increase nonelectrolyte solute excretion. Albumin therapy for hyponatremia is a peculiarity of advanced liver disease. Its use appears to be increasing, while the vaptans are currently only given in selected cases. Osmotic demyelination is a special concern in patients with liver disease. Serial checks of serum sodium concentrations and urine volume monitoring are mandatory.

MELD 3.0 in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

The MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) 3.0 score was developed to replace the MELD-Na score that is currently used to prioritize liver allocation for cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. The MELD 3.0 calculator includes new inputs from patient sex and serum albumin levels and has new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is expected that use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality modestly and improve access for female liver transplant candidates. The utility of MELD 3.0 and PELDcre (pediatric end-stage liver disease, creatinine) scores for risk stratification in cirrhotic patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and other interventions requires further study. This article reviews the background of the MELD score and the rationale to create MELD 3.0 as well as potential implications of using this newer risk stratification tool in clinical practice.

Hyponatremia after COVID-19 is frequent in the first year and increases re-admissions

Hyponatremia on admission has been related to worse outcomes in patients with COVID-19 infection. However, little is known about the frequency and the associated risk factors of hyponatremia after COVID-19 discharge. We performed an observational 24-month follow-up study of patients admitted during the first COVID-19 wave. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the main variables in predicting hyponatremia on follow-up (HYPO-FU). A total of 161 out of 683 (24.4%) developed HYPO-FU. The group with HYPO-FU comprised of more men [(62.3%) vs. (49.2%); p < 0.01], older [65.6 ± 18.2 vs. 60.3 ± 17.0; p < 0.01] and more frequently re-admitted [(16.2%) vs. (3.8%); p < 0.01). The rate of HYPO-FU was higher in the first year 23.6 per 100 individuals per year. After Cox regression analysis, the independent risk factors of HYPO-FU were diabetes [OR 2.12, IC 95% (1.48-3.04)], hypertension [OR 2.18, IC 95% (1.53-3.12)], heart failure [OR 3.34, IC 95% (1.72-6.48)] and invasive ventilation support requirement [OR: 2.38, IC 95% (1.63-3.50)]. To conclude, HYPO-FU was frequent in the first year after COVID-19 infection, and the risk was higher in older men with comorbidities, increasing rehospitalisation. Further studies aimed at evaluating the beneficial effects of correcting hyponatremia in these patients are warranted.

Clinical features and prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with recompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

There are few studies on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with recompensated cirrhosis. This study was aimed to investigate the clinical features of ACLF patients with recompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 461 ACLF patients were enrolled and divided into three groups: compensated, recompensated, and decompensated cirrhosis with ACLF. The baseline clinical data and 1-year survival rates were compared among the three groups.

RESULTS

Compared with the decompensated group, in the recompensated group, the levels of hemoglobin, albumin, and serum sodium were significantly higher and the white blood cell count, international normalized ratio, and incidence of respiratory failure were significantly lower; there were no evident differences in other organ failures. The proportion of patients with ACLF grade 3 and 1-year survival rates significantly differed between the two groups. Conversely, compared with the compensated group, in the recompensated group, the platelet and total bilirubin levels were significantly lower and the proportion of patients with ACLF grade 1 was significantly higher. However, other clinical indicators or 1-year survival rates did not significantly differ between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with patients who developed ACLF with decompensated cirrhosis, those who developed ACLF with recompensated cirrhosis had a less severe condition, lower incidence of respiratory failure, and better 1-year prognosis. However, the baseline clinical features and prognosis were similar between ACLF patients with recompensated and compensated cirrhosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Chinese clinical trials registry: ChiCTR1900021539.

Liver Transplantation: Protocol for Recipient Selection, Evaluation, and Assessment

Liver transplantation (LT) is the definitive therapy for patients with end-stage liver disease, acute liver failure, acute-on-chronic liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma, and metabolic liver diseases. The acceptance of LT in Asia has been gradually increasing and so is the expertise to perform LT. Preparing a patient with cirrhosis for LT is the most important aspect of a successful LT. The preparation for LT begins with the first index decompensation for a patient with cirrhosis. Patients planned for LT should undergo a thorough screening for infections, and a complete cardiac, pulmonology, and psychosocial evaluation pre-LT. In this review, we discuss the indications and contraindications of LT and the evaluation and assessment of patients with liver disease planned for LT.

Effect of elevated serum ferritin on the risk of death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis: a meta-analysis

It is still debatable whether serum ferritin is a potential prognostic marker in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. In this meta-analysis, we hope to investigate the relationship between elevated serum ferritin and the risk of death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CNKI, SinoMed, WAN FANG, and ClinicalTrials.gov without language restrictions from inception to 3 October 2022, and finally identified a total of eight eligible studies with 1829 patients. The pooled prevalence of elevated serum ferritin in decompensated cirrhosis was 40.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 32.1-49.2%], and it was higher in males, patients with alcohol-associated liver disease, those with Child-Pugh grade C, those with hepatic encephalopathy, and nonsurvivors. Nonsurvivors had significantly higher serum ferritin levels than survivors [mean difference 247.90; 95% CI, 130.97-364.84]. With a pooled unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.38 (95% CI, 1.78-3.18), high serum ferritin was associated with an increased risk of death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, with low heterogeneity among the included studies. In conclusion, high serum ferritin levels were associated with mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. More prospective and homogeneous clinical studies are required to validate our findings.

Determining Prognosis of ALD and Alcohol-associated Hepatitis

Alcohol-associated hepatitis has a poor prognosis in terms of short-term mortality and often presents with symptoms, such as jaundice, acute renal failure, and ascites. There are many prognostic models that have been developed to predict short-term and long-term mortality in these patients. Current prognostic models can be divided into static scores, which are measured at admission, and dynamic models, which measure baseline and after a certain amount of time. The efficacy of these models in predicting short-term mortality is disputed. Numerous studies across the world have compared prognostic models, such as the Maddrey's discriminant function, the model for end-stage liver disease score, model for end-stage liver disease score-Na, Glasgow alcohol-associated hepatitis score, and the age-bilirubin-international normalized ratio-creatinine (ABIC) score, to each other to determine which score is more useful for a particular context. There are also prognostic markers such as liver biopsy, breath biomarkers, and acute kidney injury that are able to predict mortality. The accuracy of these scores is a key to determining when treatment with corticosteroids is futile since there is an increased risk of infection in those treated with it. Furthermore, although these scores are helpful in predicting short-term mortality, the only factor that is able to predict long-term mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease is abstinence. Numerous studies have proven that even though corticosteroids provide a treatment for alcohol-associated hepatitis, it is a temporary one, at best. The purpose of this paper is to compare the historical models to current ones in their ability to predict mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease by analyzing multiple studies that have examined these prognostic markers. This paper also isolates the knowledge gaps in the ability to delineate which patients would benefit from corticosteroids and patients who would not and provides potential models for the future that could narrow this gap.

Hyponatremia Demystified: Integrating Physiology to Shape Clinical Practice

Hyponatremia is one of the most common problems encountered in clinical practice and one of the least-understood because accurate diagnosis and management require some familiarity with water homeostasis physiology, making the topic seemingly complex. The prevalence of hyponatremia depends on the nature of the population studied and the criteria used to define it. Hyponatremia is associated with poor outcomes including increased mortality and morbidity. The pathogenesis of hypotonic hyponatremia involves the accumulation of electrolyte-free water caused by either increased intake and/or decrease in kidney excretion. Plasma osmolality, urine osmolality, and urine sodium can help to differentiate among the different etiologies. Brain adaptation to plasma hypotonicity consisting of solute extrusion to mitigate further water influx into brain cells best explains the clinical manifestations of hyponatremia. Acute hyponatremia has an onset within 48 hours, commonly resulting in severe symptoms, while chronic hyponatremia develops over 48 hours and usually is pauci-symptomatic. However, the latter increases the risk of osmotic demyelination syndrome if hyponatremia is corrected rapidly; therefore, extreme caution must be exercised when correcting plasma sodium. Management strategies depend on the presence of symptoms and the cause of hyponatremia and are discussed in this review.

Development and validation of the Gender-Equity Model for Liver Allocation (GEMA) to prioritise candidates for liver transplantation: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and its sodium-corrected variant (MELD-Na) have created gender disparities in accessing liver transplantation. We aimed to derive and validate the Gender-Equity Model for liver Allocation (GEMA) and its sodium-corrected variant (GEMA-Na) to amend such inequities.

METHODS

In this cohort study, the GEMA models were derived by replacing creatinine with the Royal Free Hospital glomerular filtration rate (RFH-GFR) within the MELD and MELD-Na formulas, with re-fitting and re-weighting of each component. The new models were trained and internally validated in adults listed for liver transplantation in the UK (2010-20; UK Transplant Registry) using generalised additive multivariable Cox regression, and externally validated in an Australian cohort (1998-2020; Royal Prince Alfred Hospital [Australian National Liver Transplant Unit] and Austin Hospital [Victorian Liver Transplant Unit]). The study comprised 9320 patients: 5762 patients for model training, 1920 patients for internal validation, and 1638 patients for external validation. The primary outcome was mortality or delisting due to clinical deterioration within the first 90 days from listing. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell's concordance statistic.

FINDINGS

449 (5·8%) of 7682 patients in the UK cohort and 87 (5·3%) of 1638 patients in the Australian cohort died or were delisted because of clinical deterioration within 90 days. GEMA showed improved discrimination in predicting mortality or delisting due to clinical deterioration within the first 90 days after waiting list inclusion compared with MELD (Harrell's concordance statistic 0·752 [95% CI 0·700-0·804] vs 0·712 [0·656-0·769]; p=0·001 in the internal validation group and 0·761 [0·703-0·819] vs 0·739 [0·682-0·796]; p=0·036 in the external validation group), and GEMA-Na showed improved discrimination compared with MELD-Na (0·766 [0·715-0·818] vs 0·742 [0·686-0·797]; p=0·0058 in the internal validation group and 0·774 [0·720-0·827] vs 0·745 [0·690-0·800]; p=0·014 in the external validation group). The discrimination capacity of GEMA-Na was higher in women than in the overall population, both in the internal (0·802 [0·716-0·888]) and external validation cohorts (0·796 [0·698-0·895]). In the pooled validation cohorts, GEMA resulted in a score change of at least 2 points compared with MELD in 1878 (52·8%) of 3558 patients (25·0% upgraded and 27·8% downgraded). GEMA-Na resulted in a score change of at least 2 points compared with MELD-Na in 1836 (51·6%) of 3558 patients (32·3% upgraded and 19·3% downgraded). In the whole cohort, 3725 patients received a transplant within 90 days of being listed. Of these patients, 586 (15·7%) would have been differently prioritised by GEMA compared with MELD; 468 (12·6%) patients would have been differently prioritised by GEMA-Na compared with MELD-Na. One in 15 deaths could potentially be avoided by using GEMA instead of MELD and one in 21 deaths could potentially be avoided by using GEMA-Na instead of MELD-Na.

INTERPRETATION

GEMA and GEMA-Na showed improved discrimination and a significant re-classification benefit compared with existing scores, with consistent results in an external validation cohort. Their implementation could save a clinically meaningful number of lives, particularly among women, and could amend current gender inequities in accessing liver transplantation.

FUNDING

Junta de Andalucía and EDRF.

Prognostic Prediction for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Ascites: Role of Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) Grade and Easy (EZ)-ALBI Grade

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often have co-existing ascites, which is a hallmark of liver decompensation. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and EZ (easy)-ALBI grade are used to assess liver functional reserve in HCC, but the predictive accuracy of these two models in HCC patients with ascites is unclear. We aimed to determine the prognostic role of ALBI and EZ-ALBI grades in these patients. A total of 4431 HCC patients were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors were identified by the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Of all patients, 995 (22.5%) patients had ascites. Grade 1, 2, and 3 ascites were found in 16%, 4%, and 3% of them, respectively. A higher ascites grade was associated with higher ALBI and EZ-ALBI scores and linked with decreased overall survival. In the Cox multivariate analysis, serum bilirubin level > 1.1 mg/dL, creatinine level ≥ 1.2 mg/dL, α-fetoprotein ≥ 20 ng/mL, total tumor volume > 100 cm3, vascular invasion, distant metastasis, poor performance status, ALBI grade 2 and 3, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and 3, and non-curative treatments were independently associated with increased mortality (all p < 0.05) among HCC patients with ascites. The ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade can adequately stratify overall survival in both the entire cohort and specifically in patients with ascites. Ascites is highly prevalent and independently predict patient survival in HCC. The ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade are feasible markers of liver dysfunction and can stratify long-term survival in HCC patients with ascites.

Dysnatremia and risk of bloodstream infection in dialysis patients

Background

Emerging data suggest that sodium disarrays including hyponatremia are potential risk factors for infection ensuing from impairments in host immunity, which may be exacerbated by coexisting conditions (i.e. mucosal membrane and cellular edema leading to breakdown of microbial barrier function). While dysnatremia and infection-related mortality are common in dialysis patients, little is known about the association between serum sodium levels and the risk of bloodstream infection in this population.

Methods

Among 823 dialysis patients from the national Biospecimen Registry Grant Program who underwent serum sodium testing over the period January 2008–December 2014, we examined the relationship between baseline serum sodium levels and subsequent rate of bloodstream infection. Bloodstream infection events were directly ascertained using laboratory blood culture data. Associations between serum sodium level and the incidence of bloodstream infection were estimated using expanded case mix–adjusted Poisson regression models.

Results

In the overall cohort, ∼10% of all patients experienced one or more bloodstream infection events during the follow-up period. Patients with both lower sodium levels <134 mEq/l and higher sodium levels ≥140 mEq/l had higher incident rate ratios (IRRs) of bloodstream infection in expanded case mix analyses (reference 136–<138 mEq/l), with adjusted IRRs of 2.30 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19–4.44], 0.77 (95% CI 0.32–1.84), 1.39 (95% CI 0.78–2.47), 1.88 (95% CI 1.08–3.28) and 1.96 (95% CI 1.08–3.55) for sodium levels <134, 134–<136, 138–<140, 140–<142 and ≥142 Eq/l, respectively.

Conclusions

Both lower and higher baseline serum sodium levels were associated with a higher rate of subsequent bloodstream infections in dialysis patients. Further studies are needed to determine whether correction of dysnatremia ameliorates infection risk in this population.

A model to predict inhospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis, ascites and hyponatremia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Hypervolemic hyponatremia is a late complication of portal hypertension. Hyponatremia is associated with a higher mortality in hospitalized patients. In this study, we evaluated the risk factors for inhospital mortality and developed a mortality prediction model in patients with cirrhosis and hyponatremia.

METHODS

Using the national inpatient sample data for years 2016 and 2017, we identified cirrhotic patients hospitalized with ascites and hyponatremia (n = 9153). We identified independent risk factors of inhospital mortality and developed a prediction model in a training group and assessed its accuracy in a validation group. To enhance the clinical utility, we further stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk mortality risk groups using cutoff points selected by decision tree analysis.

RESULTS

The inhospital mortality in our cohort was 10.2% (n = 846). Multivariable analysis showed that age at least 65 years, variceal bleeding, sepsis, coagulopathy, and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF defined as two or more organ failures) were independent risk factors for mortality. The prediction model using these five risk factors had an AUROC of 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-0.82] for the training data and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86) for the validation data. The mortality risks in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 4% (95% CI, 3-4), 29% (95% CI, 28-33), and 43% (95% CI, 37-50), respectively.

CONCLUSION

We have developed a clinically meaningful inhospital prognostic model with excellent discrimination that will enable clinicians to risk stratify hospitalized patients with hyponatremia, ascites, and cirrhosis.

A dynamic nomogram to predict transplant-free mortality in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis and overt hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) is a serious complication of liver disease. We aimed to develop a dynamic nomogram for estimating the probability of 30-day transplant-free mortality in patients with OHE and hepatitis B-related cirrhosis (HBC).

METHODS

We identified 402 patients with OHE and HBC at the Beijing Ditan Hospital between January 2011 and July 2016. Independent risk factors were determined using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. A dynamic nomogram was established to predict the probability of 30-day transplant-free mortality. The discrimination and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) and calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. A prospective cohort of 208 patients was enrolled for validation.

RESULTS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were independently associated with the 30-day transplant-free mortality. The AUC values of the nomogram were 0.881 and 0.879 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, and the discrimination ability was superior to that of the established models. The calibration plot fitted the predicted survival and observed probabilities well. The incidence of mortality was 2.0% (3/151) in patients with MELD scores < 23 and NLR < 4, and 55.4% (41/92) in those with MELD scores ≥ 23 and NLR ≥ 4.

CONCLUSIONS

The dynamic nomogram can predict the risk of 30-day transplant-free mortality in patients with OHE and HBC. Patients with MELD scores ≥ 23 and NLR ≥ 4 have a high mortality rate and should be admitted to intensive care.

Are MELD and MELDNa Still Reliable Tools to Predict Mortality on the Liver Transplant Waiting List?

Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. Unfortunately, the scarcity of donor organs and the increasing pool of potential recipients limit access to this life-saving procedure. Allocation should account for medical and ethical factors, ensuring equal access to transplantation regardless of recipient's gender, race, religion, or income. Based on their short-term prognosis prediction, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD sodium (MELDNa) have been widely used to prioritize patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation resulting in a significant decrease in waiting list mortality/removal. Recent concern has been raised regarding the prognostic accuracy of MELD and MELDNa due, in part, to changes in recipients' profile such as body mass index, comorbidities, and general condition, including nutritional status and cause of liver disease, among others. This review aims to provide a comprehensive view of the current state of MELD and MELDNa advantages and limitations and promising alternatives. Finally, it will explore future options to increase the donor pool and improve donor-recipient matching.

Impact of Sodium Levels on Functional Outcomes in Patients With Stroke - A Swiss Stroke Registry Analysis

CONTEXT

Correction of hyponatremia might represent an additional treatment for improving stroke patients' clinical outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

Admission hyponatremia is associated with worse clinical outcome in stroke patients, but whether normalization of hyponatremia improves outcome is unknown. We investigated whether normalization of hyponatremia affects patients' disability, mortality, and stroke recurrence within 3 months; length of hospitalization; and discharge destination.

DESIGN

This was a registry-based analysis of data collected between January 2016 and December 2018. We linked data from Swiss Stroke Registry (SSR) with electronic patients' records for extracting sodium values.

SETTING

We analyzed data of hospitalized patients treated at University Hospital of Basel.

PATIENTS

Stroke patients whose data and informed consent were available.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months. The tested hypothesis was formulated after SSR data collection but before linkage with electronic patients' records.

RESULTS

Of 1995 patients, 144 (7.2%) had hyponatremia on admission; 102 (70.8%) reached normonatremia, and 42 (29.2%) remained hyponatremic at discharge. An increase of initial sodium was associated with better functional outcome at 3 months (odds ratio [OR] 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99, for a shift to higher mRS per 1 mmol/L sodium increase). Compared with normonatremic patients, patients who remained hyponatremic at discharge had a worse functional outcome at 3 months (odds ratio 2.46; 95% CI, 1.20-5.03, for a shift to higher mRS). No effect was found on mortality, recurrence, or length of hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

In hospitalized acute stroke patients, persistent hyponatremia is associated with worse functional outcome. Whether active correction of hyponatremia improves outcome remains to be determined in prospective studies.

Prevalence and clinical significance of serum sodium variability in patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases: a prospective multicenter study in China

Background

No reports exist regarding the prevalence of different Na levels and their relationship with 90-day prognosis in hospitalized patients with acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) in China. Therefore, the benefit of hyponatremia correction in AoCLD patients remains unclear.

Methods

We prospectively collected the data of 3970 patients with AoCLD from the CATCH-LIFE cohort in China. The prevalence of different Na levels (≤ 120; 120–135; 135–145; > 145) and their relationship with 90-day prognosis were analyzed. For hyponatremic patients, we measured Na levels on days 4 and 7 and compared their characteristics, based on whether hyponatremia was corrected.

Results

A total of 3880 patients were involved; 712 of those developed adverse outcomes within 90 days. There were 80 (2.06%) hypernatremic, 28 (0.72%) severe hyponatremic, and 813 (20.95%) mild hyponatremic patients at admission. After adjusting for all confounding factors, the risk of 90-day adverse outcomes decreased by 5% (odds ratio [OR] 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93–0.97; p < 0.001), 24% (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.70–0.84; p < 0.001), and 42% (OR 0.58; 95% CI 0.49–0.70; p < 0.001) as Na level increased by 1, 5, and 10 mmol/L, respectively. Noncorrection of hyponatremia on days 4 and 7 was associated with 2.05-fold (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.50–2.79; p < 0.001) and 1.46-fold (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.05–2.02; p = 0.028) higher risk of adverse outcomes.

Conclusions

Hyponatremia was an independent risk factor for a poor 90-day prognosis in patients with AoCLD. Failure to correct hyponatremia in a week after admission was often associated with increased mortality. (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT02457637, NCT03641872).

Clinical Trial Numbers

This study is registered at Shanghai www.clinicaltrials.org (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12072-021-10282-8.

Clinical Implications, Evaluation, and Management of Hyponatremia in Cirrhosis

Hyponatremia is the most common electrolyte abnormality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis on Liver Transplantation (LT) waiting list. Most of these patients have dilutional or hypervolemic hyponatremia secondary to splanchnic vasodilatation. Excessive secretion of the antidiuretic hormone also plays an important role. Hypervolemic hyponatremia is commonly associated with refractory ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and hepatic encephalopathy. Although uncommon, the use of diuretics and laxatives can cause hypovolemic hyponatremia that is characterized by the striking absence of ascites or pedal edema. Clinical features are often nonspecific and depend on the acuity of onset rather than the absolute value of serum sodium. Symptoms may be subtle, including nausea, lethargy, weakness, or anorexia. However, rarely patients may present with confusion, seizures, psychosis, or coma. Treatment includes discontinuation of diuretics, beta-blockers, and albumin infusion. Hypertonic saline (3%) infusion may be used in patients with very low serum sodium (<110 mmol/L) or when patients present with seizures or coma. Short-term use of Vasopressin (V₂) receptor antagonists may also be used to normalize sodium levels prior to LT. However, all these measures may be futile, and LT remains the definite treatment in these patients to improve survival. In this review, we describe the classification, pathogenesis of hyponatremia, and its clinical implications in patients with cirrhosis. Approach to these patients along with management will also be discussed briefly.

Value of Liver Function Tests in Cirrhosis

The liver comprises both parenchymal and non-parenchymal cells with varying functions. Cirrhosis is often complicated by the development of portal hypertension and its associated complications. Hence, assessment of liver in cirrhosis should include assessment of its structural, function of both hepatic and non-hepatic tissue and haemodynamic assessment of portal hypertension. There is no single test that can evaluate all functions of liver and assess prevalence and severity of portal hypertension. Commonly available tests like serum bilirubin, liver enzymes (alanine [ALT] and aspartate aminotransferase [AST], serum alkaline phosphatase [ALP], gamma glutamyl transpeptidase [GGT]), serum albumin and prothrombin time for assessment of liver functions partly assess liver functions. quantitative liver functions like indocyanine clearance tests [ICG-K], methacetin breath test [MBT] were developed to assess dynamic status of liver but has its own limitation and availability. Imaging based assessment of liver by transient elastography, MRI based 99 mTc-coupled asialoglycoprotein mebrofenin scan help the clinician to assess liver function, functional volume of liver left after surgery and portal hypertension [PH]. Hepatic venous pressure gradient still remains the gold standard for the assessment of portal hypertension but is invasive and not available in all centres. Combinations of blood parameters in form of various indices like fibrosis score of 4 [FIB-4], Lok index, scores like model for end stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte Pugh score are commonly used for assessing liver function in clinical practice.

Microcirculatory changes in the liver of patients with refractory ascites and their relationship with diabetes and alcohol

OBJECTIVES

The determinants of refractory ascites have not been fully characterized. The aims of this study were to assess liver histopathological alterations associated with refractory ascites and their relationship with comorbidities.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with cirrhosis who underwent liver transplantation were retrospectively included. Patients' characteristics at the time of listing were analysed. The native livers were reviewed and lesions associated with refractory ascites were examined.

RESULTS

Out of the 89 patients included, 30 had refractory ascites and 59 did not (including 35 without ascites and 24 with diuretic-sensitive ascites). Patients with and without refractory ascites had a similar amount of fibrous tissue and features of fatty liver disease. By contrast, microvascular changes, namely sinusoidal dilatation (P < 0.001), diffuse perisinusoidal fibrosis (P = 0.001), hepatic venous thromboses (P = 0.004) and vascular proliferation (P = 0.01) were more frequently observed in the livers of patients with refractory ascites. Diabetes (57% vs. 31%, P = 0.02) and alcohol as a causal factor for cirrhosis (80% vs. 42%, P = 0.001) were more frequent in patients with refractory ascites than in those without. By multivariate analysis, refractory ascites was independently associated with diabetes mellitus [odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval, CI) 6.15 (1.47-25.71); P = 0.01], alcohol as a causal factor for cirrhosis [OR (95% CI) 4.63 (1.07-20.02); P = 0.04], higher Model For End Stage Liver Diseases [OR (95% CI) 1.21 (1.05-1.38); P = 0.008] and lower serum sodium [OR (95% CI) 0.87 (0.78-0.98); P = 0.03].

CONCLUSION

Liver microcirculatory changes are associated with refractory ascites. Diabetes and alcohol may explain refractory ascites by causing microangiopathy.

Recent therapeutic targets in diabetic nephropathy

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetes mellitus has been increased dramatically which in turn leads to complications including cardiovascular diseases, diabetic kidney disease, and substantially end-stage renal disease.

METHODS

We reviewed articles discussing the pathophysiology of diabetic nephropathy with new agents that may be useful in the management of the disease. We used PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar and the Open-access searching engines.

RESULTS

The recent recommendations primarily depend on glycaemic and blood pressure control and the use of standard renin-angiotensin system blockade. Currently, the use of agents with nephroprotective effects beyond the hyperglycaemic lowering effect has been evidenced clinically.

CONCLUSIONS

In his review, the pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, and lines of treatment of diabetic nephropathy are discussed. In addition, a focus on the clinical role and nephroprotective effects of the emerging therapeutic class, dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-4) inhibitors, is addressed in detail.

Corrigendum to 'Level of MFAP4 in ascites independently predicts 1-year transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis' [JHEP Reports 3 (2021) 100287]

Background & Aims

Prognostic models of cirrhosis underestimate disease severity for patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Microfibrillar-associated protein 4 (MFAP4) is an extracellular matrix protein linked to hepatic neoangiogenesis and fibrogenesis. We investigated ascites MFAP4 as a predictor of transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

Methods

A dual-centre observational study of patients with cirrhosis and ascites recruited consecutively in relation to a paracentesis was carried out. Patients were followed up for 1 year, until death or liver transplantation (LTx). Ascites MFAP4 was tested with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD-Na), CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation (CLIF-C AD), and Child-Pugh score in Cox regression models.

Results

Ninety-three patients requiring paracentesis were included. Median ascites MFAP4 was 29.7 U/ml [22.3–41.3], and MELD-Na was 19 [16–23]. A low MELD-Na score (<20) was observed in 49 patients (53%). During follow-up, 20 patients died (22%), and 6 received LTx (6%). High ascites MFAP4 (>29.7 U/ml) was associated with 1-year transplant-free survival (p = 0.002). In Cox regression, ascites MFAP4 and MELD-Na independently predicted 1-year transplant-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.97, p = 0.03, and HR = 1.08, p = 0.01, respectively). Ascites MFAP4 and CLIF-C AD also predicted survival independently (HR = 0.96, p = 0.02, and HR = 1.05, p = 0.03, respectively), whereas only ascites MFAP4 did, controlling for the Child-Pugh score (HR = 0.97, p = 0.03, and HR = 1.18, p = 0.16, respectively). For patients with MELD-Na <20, ascites MFAP4 but not ascites protein predicted 1-year transplant-free survival (HR 0.91, p = 0.02, and HR = 0.94, p = 0.17, respectively).

Conclusions

Ascites MFAP4 predicts 1-year transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. In patients with low MELD-Na scores, ascites MFAP4, but not total ascites protein, significantly predicted 1-year transplant-free survival.

Lay summary

Patients with cirrhosis who have fluid in the abdomen, ascites, are at an increased risk of death and in need for liver transplantation. Our study identified patients with ascites and a poor prognosis by measuring microfibrillar associated protein 4 (MFAP4), a protein present in the abdominal fluid. Patients with low levels of the MFAP4 protein are at particularly increased risk of death or liver transplantation, suggesting that clinical care should be intensified in this group of patients.

•

MFAP4 is a protein linked to liver fibrosis that can be found in the ascitic fluid in patients with cirrhosis.

•

MFAP4 in the ascitic fluid correlates with MELD-Na, Child-Pugh, and CLIF-C AD.

•

Ascites MFAP4 independently predicts 1-year transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

•

Ascites MFAP4 but not total ascites protein is associated with transplant-free survival in patients with MELD-Na <20.

•

Future prognostic models in decompensated cirrhosis may be enhanced by the incorporation of ascites MFAP4.

Hyponatremia Intervention Trial (HIT): Study Protocol of a Randomized, Controlled, Parallel-Group Trial With Blinded Outcome Assessment

Background: Hyponatremia is the most common electrolyte disorder with a prevalence of up to 30% in hospitalized patients. In contrast to acute hyponatremia where the need for immediate treatment is well-recognized, chronic hyponatremia is often considered not clinically relevant. This is illustrated by reports showing that appropriate laboratory tests are ordered in <50% of patients and that up to 75% are still hyponatremic at discharge. At the same time, emerging evidence suggests an association between hyponatremia and adverse events including increased risk of mortality and rehospitalization. Methods: This is a randomized (1:1 ratio) controlled, superiority, parallel-group international multi-center trial with blinded outcome assessment. In total 2,278 participants will be enrolled. Participants will be randomly assigned to undergo either targeted correction of plasma sodium levels or standard of care during hospitalization. The primary outcome is the combined risk of death or re-hospitalization within 30 days. Discussion: All data on hyponatremia and mortality are derived from observational studies and often lack methodologic robustness. Consequently, the direct impact of hyponatremia on mortality and rehospitalization risk is still debated, resulting in a clinical equipoise whether in-hospital chronic hyponatremia should be treated or not. Therefore, a randomized controlled trial is required to study whether targeted plasma sodium correction reduces the risk of mortality and rehospitalization associated with hyponatremia. Clinical Trial Registration:www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT03557957.

Perioperative Evolution of Sodium Levels in Cirrhotic Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation: An Observational Cohort and Literature Review

Background & Aims

Hyponatremia is an important predictor of early death among cirrhotic patients in the orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) waiting list. Evidence exists that prioritizing OLT waiting list according to the MELD score combined with plasma sodium concentration might prevent pre transplantation death. However, the evolution of plasma sodium concentrations during the perioperative period of OLT is not well known. We aimed to describe the evolution of perioperative sodium concentration during OLT and its relation to perioperative neurohormonal responses.

Methods

Twenty-seven consecutive cirrhotic patients who underwent OLT were prospectively included in the study over a period of 27 months. We studied the evolution of plasma sodium levels, the hemodynamics, the neurohormonal response and other biological markers during the perioperative period of OLT.

Results

Among study's population, four patients had hyponatremia before OLT, all with Child cirrhosis. In patients with hyponatremia, plasmatic sodium reached normal levels during surgery, and sodium levels remained within normal ranges 1 day, 7 days, as well as 6 months after surgery for all patients. Creatinine clearance was decreased significantly during the perioperative period, while creatinine and cystatin C levels increased significantly. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) and vasopressin levels did not change significantly in this period. Plasma renin activity, concentrations of norepinephrine and brain natriuretic peptide varied significantly during the perioperative period.

Conclusion

In our study, plasmatic sodium concentrations among hyponatremic cirrhotic patients undergoing OLT seem to reach normal levels after OLT and remain stable six months after surgery providing more evidence for the importance of sodium levels in prioritization of liver transplant candidates. Further investigation of rapid correction and stabilization of sodium levels after OLT, as observed in our study, would be of interest in order to fully understand the mechanisms involved in cirrhosis-related hyponatremia, its prognostic value and clinical implications.

Association of Plasma Fibrinogen Levels on Postoperative Day 1 with 2-Year Survival of Orthotopic Liver Transplantation for HBV-Related HCC

OBJECTIVE

To clarify the prognostic values of hemostatic parameters to predict the survival of patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

The data of 182 consecutive adult patients who underwent OLT for HBV-related HCC were subjected to univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Ascites and fibrinogen levels on postoperative day (POD) 1 were independent predictors of postoperative 2-year mortality (both P <.05). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the higher the fibrinogen level on POD 1, the better the 1- and 2-year survival of patients with ascites (P <.05), whereas the fibrinogen level on POD 1 was associated with 1-year (P <.05) but not 2-year survival of patients without ascites.

CONCLUSION

Fibrinogen on POD 1 is a predictor of 2-year post-OLT survival of patients with HBV-related HCC with ascites.

Applying the original model for end-stage liver disease score rather than the model for end-stage liver disease-Na score for risk stratification prior to transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures

OBJECTIVE

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score can be used to predict survival of patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures (TIPS). The effect of hyponatremia on survival resulted in the development of the MELD-Na score. The aim of this study is to compare the prognostic value of MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting post-TIPS outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was performed on consecutive patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS placement from 2012 to 2017. Indications for TIPS were either refractory ascites or variceal bleeding. Primary outcomes analyzed were death or liver transplantation. Follow-up data were censored at 1 year.

RESULTS

Eighty-three patients underwent TIPS. There was no difference in MELD or MELD-Na score between indication groups. However, the delta MELD (MELD-Na subtracted by MELD score) was higher in those with refractory ascites. There was no difference in outcomes of death or liver transplantation between the MELD and MELD-Na at 1 year. (area under the curve 0.79 vs 0.72, respectively, P = 0.119). In patients with a MELD-Na greater than 18, higher delta MELD was protective (hazard ratio 0.74, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no prognostic difference using either score despite a higher delta MELD in those with refractory ascites. The decision to pursue TIPS should utilize the original MELD score, as the MELD-Na score alone may exclude patients with refractory ascites who may benefit from TIPS.

Level of MFAP4 in ascites independently predicts 1-year transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis

Background & Aims

Prognostic models of cirrhosis underestimate disease severity for patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Microfibrillar-associated protein 4 (MFAP4) is an extracellular matrix protein linked to hepatic neoangiogenesis and fibrogenesis. We investigated ascites MFAP4 as a predictor of transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

Methods

A dual-centre observational study of patients with cirrhosis and ascites recruited consecutively in relation to a paracentesis was carried out. Patients were followed up for 1 year, until death or liver transplantation (LTx). Ascites MFAP4 was tested with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD-Na), CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation (CLIF-C AD), and Child-Pugh score in Cox regression models.

Results

Ninety-three patients requiring paracentesis were included. Median ascites MFAP4 was 29.7 U/L [22.3–41.3], and MELD-Na was 19 [16–23]. A low MELD-Na score (<20) was observed in 49 patients (53%). During follow-up, 20 patients died (22%), and 6 received LTx (6%). High ascites MFAP4 (>29.7 U/L) was associated with 1-year transplant-free survival (p = 0.002). In Cox regression, ascites MFAP4 and MELD-Na independently predicted 1-year transplant-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.97, p = 0.03, and HR = 1.08, p = 0.01, respectively). Ascites MFAP4 and CLIF-C AD also predicted survival independently (HR = 0.96, p = 0.02, and HR = 1.05, p = 0.03, respectively), whereas only ascites MFAP4 did, controlling for the Child-Pugh score (HR = 0.97, p = 0.03, and HR = 1.18, p = 0.16, respectively). For patients with MELD-Na <20, ascites MFAP4 but not ascites protein predicted 1-year transplant-free survival (HR 0.91, p = 0.02, and HR = 0.94, p = 0.17, respectively).

Conclusions

Ascites MFAP4 predicts 1-year transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. In patients with low MELD-Na scores, ascites MFAP4, but not total ascites protein, significantly predicted 1-year transplant-free survival.

Lay summary

Patients with cirrhosis who have fluid in the abdomen, ascites, are at an increased risk of death and in need for liver transplantation. Our study identified patients with ascites and a poor prognosis by measuring microfibrillar associated protein 4 (MFAP4), a protein present in the abdominal fluid. Patients with low levels of the MFAP4 protein are at particularly increased risk of death or liver transplantation, suggesting that clinical care should be intensified in this group of patients.

•

MFAP4 is a protein linked to liver fibrosis that can be found in the ascitic fluid in patients with cirrhosis.

•

MFAP4 in the ascitic fluid correlates with MELD-Na, Child-Pugh, and CLIF-C AD.

•

Ascites MFAP4 independently predicts 1-year transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

•

Ascites MFAP4 but not total ascites protein is associated with transplant-free survival in patients with MELD-Na <20.

•

Future prognostic models in decompensated cirrhosis may be enhanced by the incorporation of ascites MFAP4.

Long-term albumin administration in patients with cirrhosis and ascites: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Ascites is a common complication of cirrhosis, and it is associated with increased mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of long-term albumin administration in decreasing mortality and other complications of patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed using MEDLINE and Embase databases. Randomized controlled trials evaluating long-term albumin administration in patients with cirrhosis and ascites were considered eligible, as long as at least one of the following outcomes was evaluated: mortality, recurrence of ascites/need for paracentesis, refractory ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatic encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding, or adverse events. Meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model, through the Mantel-Haenszel method. The study protocol was registered at PROSPERO platform (CRD42019130078).

RESULTS

The literature search yielded 1517 references. Five randomized controlled trials fulfilled the selection criteria and were included in this meta-analysis, involving 716 individuals. Patients receiving long-term albumin had significantly lower risk of recurrence of ascites/need for paracentesis when compared with controls (risk ratio = 0.56, 95% confidence interval = 0.48-0.67, P < 0.00001). There was no evidence of significant difference between the long-term albumin and control groups regarding mortality, refractory ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatic encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding, or adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term albumin administration in patients with cirrhosis and ascites decreases recurrence of ascites/need for paracentesis. At this point, there is no evidence of significant benefits of long-term albumin administration regarding mortality or other complications of cirrhosis.

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) predicts 90-day mortality and need for paracentesis in cirrhotic patients without systolic heart failure

Fluid overload is a common complication in patients with cirrhosis. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a marker of increased blood volume, commonly used in heart failure, that has been shown to be elevated in patients with liver disease. This study examined if BNP levels can be used to determine prognosis and predict worsening of ascites in patients with cirrhosis without concomitant heart disease. A retrospective study was performed at a large urban hospital in Chicago, Illinois and included 430 patients with cirrhosis who had BNP levels ordered during their hospital stay. Patients with clinical heart failure, arrhythmias or pulmonary hypertension were excluded. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality and the secondary outcome was a requirement for therapeutic paracentesis in the 90 days following BNP results. 53 patients (12%) had BNP levels ≥ 300 pg/mL. They had significantly increased serum levels of creatinine, bilirubin, and International Normalized Ratio (INR) when compared to those with BNP < 300 pg/mL. Patients with higher BNP had significantly higher mortality rates (HR 3.49; p = 0.037) and were more likely to require therapeutic paracentesis (HR 2.26; p = 0.02) in the next 90 days. A BNP ≥ 300 pg/mL had specificity of 88.2% in predicting 90-day mortality. BNP may serve as a practical and reliable marker of underlying disease severity in patients with cirrhosis, with potential to be included in prognostication tools for assessment of end-stage liver disease.

Validation of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score in the Eurotransplant region

The MELD score is used in the Eurotransplant (ET) region to allocate liver grafts. Hyponatremia in cirrhotic patients is an important predictor of death but is not incorporated in MELD. This study investigated the performance of the MELD-Na score for the ET region. All adult patients with chronic liver disease on the ET liver transplantation waiting list (WL) allocated through lab MELD scores were included. The MELD-corrected effect of serum sodium (Na) concentration at listing on the 90-day WL mortality was calculated using Cox regression. The MELD-Na performance was assessed with c-indices, calibration per decile and Brier scores. The reclassification from MELD to MELD-Na score was calculated to estimate the impact of MELD-Na-based allocation in the ET region. For the 5223 included patients, the risk of 90-day WL death was 2.9 times higher for hyponatremic patients. The MELD-Na had a significantly higher c-index of 0.847 (SE 0.007) and more accurate 90-day mortality prediction compared to MELD (Brier score of 0.059 vs 0.061). It was estimated that using MELD-Na would reduce WL mortality by 4.9%. The MELD-Na score yielded improved prediction of 90-day WL mortality in the ET region and using MELD-Na for liver allocation will very likely reduce WL mortality.

A Comprehensive Review of Outcome Predictors in Low MELD Patients

Risk scoring for patients with cirrhosis has evolved greatly over the past several decades. However, patients with low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium scores still suffer from liver-related morbidity and mortality. Unfortunately, it is not clear which of these low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score patients would benefit from earlier consideration of liver transplantation. This article reviews the literature of risk prediction in patients with cirrhosis, identifies which patients may benefit from earlier interventions, such as transplantation, and proposes directions for future research.

MELD remains the best predictor of mortality in outpatients with cirrhosis and severe ascites

BACKGROUND

The Model for Endstage Liver Disease (MELD) score may put patients with severe ascites at a disadvantage because they often have a poor quality of life and high mortality despite a favourable MELD score.

AIM

To develop a model that is better than the MELD score at predicting 1-year mortality among patients with cirrhosis, severe ascites and MELD ≤18.

METHODS

We used data from a randomised trial (SPARe-1) of patients with cirrhosis and severe ascites to develop a model to predict 1-year mortality. We used stepwise backward elimination and Cox regression to identify the strongest predictors. Performance was assessed with the C index and the Brier score. We examined performance in an external cohort of trial participants with cirrhosis and severe ascites (SPARe-2 participants).

RESULTS

We included 308 patients with a 1-year mortality of 20.4%. The final prediction model (Severe Ascites Mortality score, "SAM score") included four variables: serum bilirubin, serum sodium, history of SBP (yes or no) and diabetes (yes or no). No indicators of quality of life were included. After correction for optimism bias, the SAM and MELD scores had nearly identical predictive ability. The external validation cohort included 149 patients whose 1-year mortality was 22.4%. The MELD score performed marginally better in this cohort, partly because the effects of SBP and diabetes on mortality were much smaller in this cohort.

CONCLUSION

We did not succeed in developing a prediction model that was superior to the MELD score among patients with cirrhosis and severe ascites.

The von Willebrand Factor Facilitates Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Independent Risk Stratification on the Waiting List for Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used for clinical decision-making and organ allocation for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and was previously upgraded through inclusion of serum sodium (Na) concentrations (MELD-Na). However, MELD-Na may underestimate complications arising from portal hypertension or infection. The von Willebrand factor (vWF) antigen (vWF-Ag) correlates with portal pressure and seems capable of predicting complications in patients with cirrhosis. Accordingly, this study aimed to evaluate vWF-Ag as an adjunct surrogate marker for risk stratification on the waiting list for OLT.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Hence, WF-Ag at time of listing was assessed in patients listed for OLT. Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting-list survival was assessed by receiver operating characteristics and net reclassification improvement. Interestingly, patients dying within 3 months on the waiting list displayed elevated levels of vWF-Ag (P < 0.001). MELD-Na and vWF-Ag were comparable and independent in their predictive potential for 3-month mortality on the waiting list (area under the curve [AUC], vWF-Ag = 0.739; MELD-Na = 0.764). Importantly, a vWF-Ag cutoff at 413% identified patients at risk for death within 3 months of listing with a higher odds ratio (OR) than the previously published cutoff at a MELD-Na of 20 points (vWF-Ag, OR = 10.873, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.160, 36.084; MELD-Na, OR = 7.594, 95% CI, 2.578, 22.372; P < 0.001, respectively). Ultimately, inclusion of vWF-Ag into the MELD-Na equation significantly improved prediction of 3-month waiting-list mortality (AUC, MELD-Na-vWF = 0.804).

CONCLUSIONS

A single measurement of vWF-Ag at listing for OLT predicts early mortality. Combining vWF-Ag levels with MELD-Na improves risk stratification and may help to prioritize organ allocation to decrease waiting-list mortality.

Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI scores: which liver function models best predicts prognosis for HCC patient with ascites?

OBJECTIVE

It remains controversial whether certain treatments should apply to HCC patients with ascites due to concerns about worsening liver function. The objective of the present study is to compare the prognostic performance of 4 liver function models currently in use for HCC patients with ascites.

METHODS

A total of 437 treatment-naïve, newly diagnosed HCC patients were analyzed. The predictive performance of Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI scores were examined using ROC curve analysis.

RESULTS

MELD-Na score showed good performance in predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year mortality, particularly 1-year mortality. MELD-Na score significantly increased at 30 days after treatment in cases initially receiving best supportive care (14-17, p < .001), TACE (9-11, p < .001), and other treatment (radiotherapy, sorafenib, or systemic chemotherapy) (9-11, p = .021). For patients with advanced tumor stage and MELD-Na score ≥12, HCC-specific treatment did not offer significantly better prognosis compared with only the best supportive care (median survival: 2.2 vs. 1.8 months for HCC-specific treatment vs. best supportive care, p = .15).

CONCLUSION

MELD-Na can effectively identify liver functional reserve and prognosis in HCC patients with ascites. MELD-Na, together with the tumor stage, may help establish a therapeutic strategy for them.

TIPS for management of portal-hypertension-related complications in patients with cirrhosis

Portal hypertension is primarily due to liver cirrhosis, and is responsible for complications that include variceal bleeding, ascites and hepatorenal syndrome. The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a low-resistance channel between the portal vein and the hepatic vein, created by interventional radiology, that aims to reduce portal pressure. TIPS is a potential treatment for severe portal-hypertension-related complications, including esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding. TIPS is currently indicated as salvage therapy in this setting when patients fail to respond to standard endoscopic and medical treatment. More recently, early TIPS has been shown to be effective in decreasing risk of rebleeding after variceal hemorrhage and mortality in Child-Pugh B patients with active hemorrhage at endoscopy, and in Child-Pugh C patients. TIPS is also an efficient treatment for refractory ascites and hepatic hydrothorax. In contrast, the role of TIPS in the hepatorenal syndrome has not been precisely defined. The aim of this review was to specifically describe the current role of TIPS in management of portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis.

Mild to moderate hyponatremia at discharge is associated with increased risk of recurrence in patients with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Hyponatremia is the most common electrolyte disorder in hospitalized patients with pneumonia. Different studies have shown an association of hyponatremia on admission and worse patient's outcome. Yet, the impact of hyponatremia at discharge or of hyponatremia correction on patient's prognosis is unknown.

METHODS

This is a preplanned secondary data analysis from a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia and prednisone treatment. The primary outcome was the impact of hyponatremia on admission and at discharge on patient relevant outcomes (i.e. mortality, rehospitalization and recurrence rate) within 180 days.

RESULTS

Of the 708 included patients, 185 (26.1%) were hyponatremic on admission. Of these, 28 (15.1%) were still hyponatremic at discharge. 34 (4.8%) patients developed hyponatremia during hospitalization despite being normonatremic on admission. Patients with hyponatremia at discharge had a higher rate of pneumonia recurrence as compared to normonatremic patients (OR 2.68; 95%-CI 1.09-6.95; p = 0.037). Among patients with hyponatremia at discharge, patients who were already hyponatremic on admission showed the strongest association with increased recurrence rate (OR 4.01; 95%-CI 1.08-12.64; p = 0.022). In contrast, recurrence rate was not affected in patients who were hyponatremic on admission but had normalized serum sodium levels at discharge (p = 0.73).

CONCLUSION

Mild to moderate hyponatremia at discharge is associated with an increased risk of recurrence in hospitalized patients with pneumonia. This association is particularly strong for patients who are hyponatremic both on admission and at discharge, emphasizing the importance of hyponatremia correction during hospitalization.

Fluid Biomarkers for Predicting the Prognosis of Liver Cirrhosis

Liver cirrhosis is the terminal stage of most chronic liver conditions, with a high risk of mortality. Careful evaluation of the prognosis of cirrhotic patients and providing precise management are crucial to reduce the risk of mortality. Although the liver biopsy and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) can efficiently evaluate the prognosis of cirrhotic patients, their application is limited due to the invasion procedures. Child-Pugh score and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score had been widely used in the assessment of cirrhotic prognosis, but the defects of subjective variable application in Child-Pugh score and unsuitability to all phases of liver cirrhosis in MELD score limit their prognostic values. In recent years, continuous efforts have been made to investigate the prognostic value of body fluid biomarkers for cirrhotic patients, and promising results have been reported. Since the collection of fluid specimens is easy, noninvasive, and repeatable, fluid biomarkers can be ideal indicators to predict the prognosis of cirrhosis. Here, we reviewed noninvasive fluid biomarkers in different prognostic functions, including the prediction of survival and complication development.

Development of a national Department of Veterans Affairs mortality risk prediction model among patients with cirrhosis

Objective

Cirrhotic patients are at high hospitalisation risk with subsequent high mortality. Current risk prediction models have varied performances with methodological room for improvement. We used current analytical techniques using automatically extractable variables from the electronic health record (EHR) to develop and validate a posthospitalisation mortality risk score for cirrhotic patients and compared performance with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), model for end-stage liver disease with sodium (MELD-Na), and the CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation (CLIF-C AD) models.

Design

We analysed a retrospective cohort of 73 976 patients comprising 247 650 hospitalisations between 2006 and 2013 at any of 123 Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals. Using 45 predictor variables, we built a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model with all-cause mortality as the outcome. We compared performance to the three extant models and reported discrimination and calibration using bootstrapping. Furthermore, we analysed differential utility using the net reclassification index (NRI).

Results

The C-statistic for the final model was 0.863, representing a significant improvement over the MELD, MELD-Na, and the CLIF-C AD, which had C-statistics of 0.655, 0.675, and 0.679, respectively. Multiple risk factors were significant in our model, including variables reflecting disease severity and haemodynamic compromise. The NRI showed a 24% improvement in predicting survival of low-risk patients and a 30% improvement in predicting death of high-risk patients.

Conclusion

We developed a more accurate mortality risk prediction score using variables automatically extractable from an EHR that may be used to risk stratify patients with cirrhosis for targeted postdischarge management.

IMPACT OF MELD SODIUM ON LIVER TRANSPLANTATION WAITING LIST

Background:

Serum sodium was incorporated to MELD score for the allocation of liver transplantation In the USA in 2016. Hyponatremia significantly increased the efficacy of the score to predict mortality on the waiting list. Such modification was not adopted in Brazil.

Aim:

To carry out a simulation using MELD-Na as waiting list ordering criteria in the state of Paraná and to compare to the list ordered according to MELD score.

Methods:

The study used data of 122 patients waiting for hepatic transplantation and listed at Parana´s Transplantation Central. Two classificatory lists were set up, one with MELD, the current qualifying criteria, and another with MELD-Na. We analyzed the changes on classification comparing these two lists.

Results:

Among all patients, 95.1% of the participants changed position, 30.3% showed improvement, 64.8% presented worsening and 4.9% maintained their position. There were 19 patients with hyponatremia, of whom 94.7% presented a change of position, and in all of them there was an improvement of position. One hundred and one patients presented sodium within the normal range and 95% of them presented a change of position: Improved placement was observed in 18.8%, and worsened placement in 76.2%. Two patients presented hypernatremia and changed their position, both worsening the placement. There was a significant different behavior on waiting list according to sodium serum level when MELD-Na was applied.

Conclusion:

The inclusion of serum sodium caused a great impact in the classification, bringing benefit to patients with hyponatremia.

Surgery in Patients with Portal Hypertension

Patients with portal hypertension will increasingly present for nontransplant surgery because of the increasing incidence of, and improving long-term survival for, chronic liver disease. Such patients have increased perioperative morbidity and mortality caused by the systemic pathophysiology of liver disease. Preoperative assessment should identify modifiable causes of liver injury and distinguish between compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Risk stratification, which is crucial to preparing patients and their families for surgery, relies on scores such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh and Model for End-stage Liver Disease to translate disease severity into quantified outcomes predictions. Risk factors for postoperative complications should also be recognized.

Ascites and Hepatorenal Syndrome

Ascites occurs in up to 70% of patients during the natural history of cirrhosis. Management of uncomplicated ascites includes sodium restriction and diuretic therapy, whereas that for refractory ascites (RA) is regular large-volume paracentesis with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt being offered in appropriate patients. Renal impairment occurs in up to 50% of patients with RA with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) being most severe. Liver transplant remains the definitive treatment of eligible candidates with HRS, whereas combined liver and kidney transplant should be considered in patients requiring dialysis for more than 4 to 6 weeks or those with underlying chronic kidney disease.