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Liu W, Liu R, Li P, Xia R, Zou Z, Zhang L, Shen M, Zhuang G. Modeling hepatitis B-related deaths in China to achieve the WHO's impact target. Infect Dis Model 2025; 10:731-742. [PMID: 40104634 PMCID: PMC11915150 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.02.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2024] [Revised: 02/14/2025] [Accepted: 02/14/2025] [Indexed: 03/20/2025] Open
Abstract
Background The World Health Organization (WHO) targets a 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 compared to 2015 to eliminate viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. It is unknown whether and how China can achieve this target despite significant intervention achievements. We aimed to predict the hepatitis B-related deaths in China and identify key developments needed to achieve the target. Methods An age- and time-dependent dynamic hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission compartmental model was developed to predict the trend of hepatitis B-related deaths under base-case and subsequent scenarios from 2015 to 2040. In base-case scenario, we assumed the diagnosis and treatment (D&T) rate would reach 72% in 2030, as proposed by WHO. Subsequent scenarios were set based on the results of base-case and one-way sensitivity analysis. Results Compared with 2015, hepatitis B-related deaths would be reduced by 23.89% in 2030 and 51.79% in 2040, respectively, and the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction would not be achieved until 2038 at the earliest under base-case scenario. HBV clearance rate and current treatment effectiveness were the most sensitive parameters that significantly influenced the decline of hepatitis B-related deaths from 2015 to 2040. In the subsequent scenario, when D&T rate improving to 90% by 2030, with the current treatment effectiveness and HBV clearance rate being optimized from 2016, the WHO's impact target would be achieved in 2038. Increasing the clearance rate further from 2% to 2.8% during 2016-2030 linearly, the impact target would be achieved on time. Conclusions It is difficult for China to achieve the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 even we assumed the D&T rate would reach 72% in 2030 and beyond. A comprehensive scale-up of available strategies, especially innovative drugs and technologies will ensure that China achieves the target on schedule.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenjun Liu
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
| | - Renjie Liu
- School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
| | - Peng Li
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
| | - Ruyi Xia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
| | - Zhuoru Zou
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
| | - Lei Zhang
- China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
- Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Mingwang Shen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
- China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
- Key Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
- The Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
| | - Guihua Zhuang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
- China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
- Key Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China
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Mak LY, Cheung KS, Fung J, Seto WK, Yuen MF. New strategies for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. Trends Mol Med 2022; 28:742-757. [PMID: 35780008 DOI: 10.1016/j.molmed.2022.06.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2022] [Revised: 06/03/2022] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
Abstract
Functional cure, as defined by seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), is the desired treatment endpoint for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection, yet is rarely achieved with the currently approved therapy. Novel treatments currently in the clinical phase of development act by inhibiting viral replication/antigen reduction and/or by restoring host immune control. Although some agents are effective in reducing the viral antigen load, a greater magnitude of suppression is required to achieve functional cure. Compounds that target the covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) pool, hepatitis B X (HBx) protein inhibition, and mRNA destabilization are also in the preclinical phase of development. Challenges which remain include the clinical implications, immunological perturbations, and safety of these novel compounds to be used in the real-life setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lung-Yi Mak
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Liver Research, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Ka-Shing Cheung
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - James Fung
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Liver Research, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Wai-Kay Seto
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Liver Research, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China
| | - Man-Fung Yuen
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Liver Research, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
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Odenwald MA, Paul S. Viral hepatitis: Past, present, and future. World J Gastroenterol 2022; 28:1405-1429. [PMID: 35582678 PMCID: PMC9048475 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v28.i14.1405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2021] [Revised: 03/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/06/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Each hepatitis virus-Hepatitis A, B, C, D, E, and G-poses a distinct scenario to the patient and clinician alike. Since the discovery of each virus, extensive knowledge regarding epidemiology, virologic properties, and the natural clinical and immunologic history of acute and chronic infections has been generated. Basic discoveries about host immunologic responses to acute and chronic viral infections, combined with virologic data, has led to vaccines to prevent Hepatitis A, B, and E and highly efficacious antivirals for Hepatitis B and C. These therapeutic breakthroughs are transforming the fields of hepatology, transplant medicine in general, and public and global health. Most notably, there is even an ambitious global effort to eliminate chronic viral hepatitis within the next decade. While attainable, there are many barriers to this goal that are being actively investigated in basic and clinical labs on the local, national, and international scales. Herein, we discuss pertinent clinical information and recent organizational guidelines for each of the individual hepatitis viruses while also synthesizing this information with the latest research to focus on exciting future directions for each virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew August Odenwald
- Department of Medicine, Section of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Center for Liver Diseases, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States
| | - Sonali Paul
- Department of Medicine, Section of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition, Center for Liver Diseases, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States
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Liu AW, Wei AZ, Maniar AB, Carvajal RD. Tebentafusp in Advanced Uveal Melanoma: Proof of Principal for the Efficacy of T-Cell Receptor Therapeutics and Bispecifics in Solid Tumors. Expert Opin Biol Ther 2022; 22:997-1004. [DOI: 10.1080/14712598.2022.2031970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
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Pisano MB, Giadans CG, Flichman DM, Ré VE, Preciado MV, Valva P. Viral hepatitis update: Progress and perspectives. World J Gastroenterol 2021; 27:4018-4044. [PMID: 34326611 PMCID: PMC8311538 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v27.i26.4018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2021] [Revised: 04/11/2021] [Accepted: 06/16/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Viral hepatitis, secondary to infection with hepatitis A, B, C, D, and E viruses, are a major public health problem and an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Despite the huge medical advances achieved in recent years, there are still points of conflict concerning the pathogenesis, immune response, development of new and more effective vaccines, therapies, and treatment. This review focuses on the most important research topics that deal with issues that are currently being solved, those that remain to be solved, and future research directions. For hepatitis A virus we will address epidemiology, molecular surveillance, new susceptible populations as well as environmental and food detections. In the case of hepatitis B virus, we will discuss host factors related to disease, diagnosis, therapy, and vaccine improvement. On hepatitis C virus, we will focus on pathogenesis, immune response, direct action antivirals treatment in the context of solid organ transplantation, issues related to hepatocellular carcinoma development, direct action antivirals resistance due to selection of resistance-associated variants, and vaccination. Regarding hepatitis D virus, we describe diagnostic methodology, pathogenesis, and therapy. Finally, for hepatitis E virus, we will address epidemiology (including new emerging species), diagnosis, clinical aspects, treatment, the development of a vaccine, and environmental surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- María B Pisano
- Virology Institute, CONICET, School of Medical Sciences, National University of Córdoba, Cordoba X5016, Argentina
| | - Cecilia G Giadans
- Multidisciplinary Institute for Investigation in Pediatric Pathologies (IMIPP) CONICET-GCBA, Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Pathology Division, Ricardo Gutiérrez Children’s Hospital, CABA C1425, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Diego M Flichman
- Institute of Biomedical Investigations in Retrovirus and AIDS (INBIRS), School of Medicine, University of Buenos Aires, CONICET, CABA C1121ABG, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Viviana E Ré
- Virology Institute, CONICET, School of Medical Sciences, National University of Córdoba, Cordoba X5016, Argentina
| | - María V Preciado
- Multidisciplinary Institute for Investigation in Pediatric Pathologies (IMIPP) CONICET-GCBA, Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Pathology Division, Ricardo Gutiérrez Children’s Hospital, CABA C1425, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Pamela Valva
- Multidisciplinary Institute for Investigation in Pediatric Pathologies (IMIPP) CONICET-GCBA, Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Pathology Division, Ricardo Gutiérrez Children’s Hospital, CABA C1425, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Mak LY, Seto WK, Yuen MF. Novel Antivirals in Clinical Development for Chronic Hepatitis B Infection. Viruses 2021; 13:1169. [PMID: 34207458 PMCID: PMC8235765 DOI: 10.3390/v13061169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2021] [Revised: 06/06/2021] [Accepted: 06/15/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Globally, chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is one of the leading causes of liver failure, decompensated cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Existing antiviral therapy can suppress viral replication but not fully eradicate the virus nor the risk of liver-related complications. Novel treatments targeting alternative steps of the viral cycle or to intensify/restore the host's immunity are being developed. We discuss novel drugs that have already entered clinical phases of development. Agents that interfere with specific steps of HBV replication include RNA interference, core protein allosteric modulation, and inhibition of viral entry or viral protein excretion (NAPs and STOPS). Agents that target the host's immunity include toll-like receptor agonists, therapeutic vaccines, immune checkpoint modulators, soluble T-cell receptors, and monoclonal antibodies. Most have demonstrated favorable results in suppression of viral proteins and genomic materials (i.e., HBV DNA and/or pre-genomic RNA), and/or evidence on host-immunity restoration including cytokine responses and T-cell activation. Given the abundant clinical experience and real-world safety data with the currently existing therapy, any novel agent for CHB should be accompanied by convincing safety data. Combination therapy of nucleos(t)ide analogue, a novel virus-directing agent, and/or an immunomodulatory agent will be the likely approach to optimize the chance of a functional cure in CHB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lung-Yi Mak
- Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road 102, Hong Kong, China
- State Key Laboratory of Liver Research, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Wai-Kay Seto
- Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road 102, Hong Kong, China
- State Key Laboratory of Liver Research, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Man-Fung Yuen
- Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road 102, Hong Kong, China
- State Key Laboratory of Liver Research, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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