Overdiagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: Prevented by guidelines?

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Cirrhosis Using US Visualization Score C-Triggered Abbreviated MRI

INTRODUCTION

Ultrasound (US) is associated with severe visualization limitations (US Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System visualization score C) in one-third of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cirrhosis undergoing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening. Data suggest abbreviated MRI (aMRI) may improve HCC screening efficacy. This study analyzed the cost-effectiveness of HCC screening strategies, including an US visualization score-based approach with aMRI, in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis.

METHODS

We constructed a Markov model simulating adults with compensated NAFLD cirrhosis in the United States undergoing HCC screening, comparing strategies of US plus visualization score, US alone, or no surveillance. We modeled aMRI in patients with visualization score C and negative US, while patients with scores A/B did US alone. We performed a sensitivity analysis comparing US plus visualization score with US plus alpha fetoprotein or no surveillance. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Sensitivity analyses were performed for all variables.

RESULTS

US plus visualization score was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of $59,005 relative to no surveillance. The ICER for US alone to US plus visualization score was $822,500. On sensitivity analysis, screening using US plus visualization score remained preferred across several parameters. Even with alpha fetoprotein added to US, the US plus visualization score strategy remained cost-effective, with an ICER of $62,799 compared with no surveillance.

DISCUSSION

HCC surveillance using US visualization score-based approach, using aMRI for visualization score C, seems to be the most cost-effective strategy in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis.

Association between bridging therapy and posttransplant outcomes in patients with HCC within Milan criteria: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Liver transplantation is the curative therapy of choice for patients with early-stage HCC. Locoregional therapies are often employed as a bridge to reduce the risk of waitlist dropout; however, their association with posttransplant outcomes is unclear. We conducted a systematic review using Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify studies published between database inception and August 2, 2023, which reported posttransplant recurrence-free survival and overall survival among patients transplanted for HCC within Milan criteria, stratified by receipt of bridging therapy. Pooled HRs were calculated for each outcome using the DerSimonian and Laird method for a random-effects model. We identified 38 studies, including 19,671 patients who received and 20,148 patients who did not receive bridging therapy. Bridging therapy was not associated with significant differences in recurrence-free survival (pooled HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.77-1.08; I2 =39%) or overall survival (pooled HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.95-1.24; I2 =47%). Results were relatively consistent across subgroups, including geographic location and study period. Studies were discordant regarding the differential strength of association by pretreatment tumor burden and pathologic response, but potential benefits of locoregional therapy were mitigated in those who received 3 or more treatments. Adverse events were reported in a minority of studies, but when reported occurred in 6%-15% of the patients. Few studies reported loss to follow-up and most had a risk of residual confounding. Bridging therapy is not associated with improvements in posttransplant recurrence-free or overall survival among patients with HCC within Milan criteria. The risk-benefit ratio of bridging therapy likely differs based on the risk of waitlist dropout.

Indolent cancer and pattern of progression: Two missing parameters in trial design for hepatology

The indolent and aggressive behaviors of HCC might have a role in clinical trial (CT) results; however, the indolent HCC is less analyzed compared to others cancer. Indolent profile could be characterized as follows: (1) patients with low risk of progression itself due to the HCC molecular profile and/or due to the interaction between cancer cell their microenvironment; (2) patients who achieve objective response or present spontaneous regression; and (3) patients who develop radiological progression with no consequence on either the liver function or general status, and without trigger a change in the tumor stage. Patients with "indolent HCC" generally never develop cancer-related symptoms neither die for HCC-related causes. Thus, we hypothesize that the imbalance in the proportion of "indolent" versus "aggressive HCC" between arms or the underestimation/overestimation of HCC behavior at baseline in single-arm CT could be associated with CT failure or under-overestimation of trial results. The "indolent progression" may also explain the discrepancy between radiological progression-based end points and survival. Moreover, we discuss the related causes that explain the indolent profile of HCC and propose (1) refining the progression-related end point by the pattern of progression to minimize the limitations of the current end points; (2) considering alternative statistical tools for survival analysis such as milestone survival, or restricted mean survival time to capture the value of indolent HCC. According to these considerations, we propose incorporating novel end points into the single arm of phase I/II CT as exploratory analysis or as a secondary end point in phase III CT.

Proportion of Time Covered by Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Patients With Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is associated with improved early tumor detection, but effectiveness is limited by underuse. We characterized adherence to HCC surveillance using proportion of time covered (PTC) and estimated its association with clinical outcomes among patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with HCC between January 2008 and December 2022 at 2 large US health systems. We characterized PTC by imaging in the 12 and 24 months before HCC diagnosis. We used multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses to assess the association between PTC and early HCC detection, receipt of curative treatment, and overall survival.

RESULTS

Among 2,027 patients with HCC, 331 (51.4% Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer 0/A) had been followed up for at least 12 months before diagnosis. The median PTC was 24.9% (interquartile range 1.1%-50.7%), with only 16.0% having semiannual imaging and 42.0% having annual surveillance. Semiannual and annual surveillance decreased to 6.3% and 29.6% when assessed over 24 months, although the median PTC remained unchanged at 24.9%. Receipt of gastroenterology/hepatology care had the strongest association with PTC, with median PTC of 36.7% and 3.8% for those with and without gastroenterology/hepatology care, respectively. PTC was independently associated with improved early HCC detection, curative treatment receipt, and overall survival. The median survival was 15.7, 26.8, and 32.7 months among those with PTC of <25% (n = 168 patients), PTC 25%-50% (n = 69 patients), and PTC >50% (n = 94 patients), respectively.

DISCUSSION

The proportion of time covered by HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis remains low, highlighting a need for multilevel interventions.

Metallothionein-3 is a multifunctional driver that modulates the development of sorafenib-resistant phenotype in hepatocellular carcinoma cells

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Metallothionein-3 (hMT3) is a structurally unique member of the metallothioneins family of low-mass cysteine-rich proteins. hMT3 has poorly characterized functions, and its importance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cells has not yet been elucidated. Therefore, we investigated the molecular mechanisms driven by hMT3 with a special emphasis on susceptibility to sorafenib.

METHODS

Intrinsically sorafenib-resistant (BCLC-3) and sensitive (Huh7) cells with or without up-regulated hMT3 were examined using cDNA microarray and methods aimed at mitochondrial flux, oxidative status, cell death, and cell cycle. In addition, in ovo/ex ovo chick chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) assays were conducted to determine a role of hMT3 in resistance to sorafenib and associated cancer hallmarks, such as angiogenesis and metastastic spread. Molecular aspects of hMT3-mediated induction of sorafenib-resistant phenotype were delineated using mass-spectrometry-based proteomics.

RESULTS

The phenotype of sensitive HCC cells can be remodeled into sorafenib-resistant one via up-regulation of hMT3. hMT3 has a profound effect on mitochondrial respiration, glycolysis, and redox homeostasis. Proteomic analyses revealed a number of hMT3-affected biological pathways, including exocytosis, glycolysis, apoptosis, angiogenesis, and cellular stress, which drive resistance to sorafenib.

CONCLUSIONS

hMT3 acts as a multifunctional driver capable of inducing sorafenib-resistant phenotype of HCC cells. Our data suggest that hMT3 and related pathways could serve as possible druggable targets to improve therapeutic outcomes in patients with sorafenib-resistant HCC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening in a Contemporary Cohort of At-Risk Patients

Importance

Cohort studies demonstrating an association of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening with reduced mortality are prone to lead-time and length-time biases.

Objective

To characterize the clinical benefits of HCC screening, adjusting for lead-time and length-time biases, in a diverse, contemporary cohort of at-risk patients.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study of patients with HCC was conducted between January 2008 and December 2022 at 2 large US health systems. Data analysis was performed from September to November 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was screen-detected HCC, defined by abnormal screening-intent abdominal imaging or α-fetoprotein level within 6 months before diagnosis. Cox regression analysis was used to characterize differences in overall survival between patients with screen-detected and non-screen-detected HCC; lead-time and length-time adjustments were calculated using the Duffy parametric formula.

Results

Among 1313 patients with HCC (mean [SD] age, 61.7 [9.6] years; 993 male [75.6%]; 739 [56.3%] with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A disease), HCC was screen-detected in 556 (42.3%) and non-screen detected in 757 (57.7%). Patients with screen-detected HCC had higher proportions of early-stage HCC (393 patients [70.7%] vs 346 patients [45.7%]; risk ratio [RR], 1.54; 95% CI, 1.41-1.70) and curative treatment receipt (283 patients [51.1%] vs 252 patients [33.5%]; RR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.34-1.74) compared with patients with non-screen-detected HCC. The screen-detected group had significantly lower mortality, which persisted after correcting for lead-time bias (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.87) in fully adjusted models. Both groups had similar tumor doubling times (median [IQR], 3.8 [2.2-10.7] vs 5.6 [1.7-11.4] months) and proportions of indolent tumors (28 patients [35.4%] vs 24 patients [38.1%]; RR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.60-1.43). Adjustment for length-time bias decreased survival estimates, although 3-year and 5-year survival for patients with screen-detected HCC remained longer than that for patients with non-screen-detected HCC.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest that HCC screening is associated with reduced mortality even after accounting for lead-time and length-time biases. However, these biases should be considered in future studies.

Benefits and harms of polygenic risk scores in organised cancer screening programmes: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

While polygenic risk scores (PRS) could enable the streamlining of organised cancer screening programmes, its current discriminative ability is limited. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to trade-off the benefits and harms of PRS-stratified cancer screening in China.

Methods

The validated National Cancer Center (NCC) modelling framework for six cancers (lung, liver, breast, gastric, colorectum, and oesophagus) was used to simulate cancer incidence, progression, stage-specific cancer detection, and risk of death. We estimated the number of cancer deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, number needed to screen (NNS), overdiagnosis, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of one-time PRS-stratified screening strategy (screening 25% of PRS-defined high-risk population) for a birth cohort at age 60 in 2025, compared with unstratified screening strategy (screening 25% of general population) and no screening strategy. We applied lifetime horizon, societal perspective, and 3% discount rate. An ICER less than $18,364 per QALY gained is considered cost-effective.

Findings

One-time cancer screening for population aged 60 was the most cost-effective strategy compared to screening at other ages. Compared with an unstratified screening strategy, the PRS-stratified screening strategy averted more cancer deaths (61,237 vs. 40,329), had a lower NNS to prevent one death (307 vs. 451), had a slightly higher overdiagnosis (14.1% vs. 13.8%), and associated with an additional 130,045 QALYs at an additional cost of $1942 million, over a lifetime horizon. The ICER for all six cancers combined was $14,930 per QALY gained, with the ICER varying from $7928 in colorectal cancer to $39,068 in liver cancer. ICER estimates were sensitive to changes in risk threshold and cost of PRS tools.

Interpretation

PRS-stratified screening strategy modestly improves clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of organised cancer screening programmes. Reducing the costs of polygenic risk stratification is needed before PRS implementation.

Funding

The Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, the Jing-jin-ji Special Projects for Basic Research Cooperation, and the Sanming Project of the Medicine in Shenzhen.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: Evidence-Based Tailored Approach

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is recommended by professional society guidelines given a consistent association with reduced HCC-related mortality. HCC surveillance should be performed using semiannual abdominal ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, although this combination has suboptimal sensitivity and can miss more than one-third of HCC at an early stage. There are promising emerging blood-based and imaging-based strategies, including abbreviated MRI and biomarker panels; however, these require further validation before routine use in clinical practice. HCC surveillance is underused in clinical practice due to patient-related and provider-related barriers, highlighting a need for interventions to improve surveillance utilization in clinical practice.

Global trends in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology: implications for screening, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates are increasing globally, and particularly in the Western world. Cirrhosis remains the predominant risk factor for HCC. However, epidemiological shifts in the incidence of HCC from patients with virus-related liver disease to those with non-viral aetiologies, including alcohol-associated and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, have important implications for prevention, surveillance and treatment. Hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapy for hepatitis B and C are effective for primary prevention of virus-related HCCs, but chemoprevention strategies for non-viral liver disease remain an unmet need. Emerging data suggest associations between aspirin, statins, metformin and coffee and reduced HCC incidence, although none has been proved to be causally related. Secondary prevention of HCC via semi-annual surveillance is associated with improvements in early detection and thus reduced mortality; however, current tools, including abdominal ultrasonography, have suboptimal sensitivity for the detection of early stage HCC, particularly in patients with obesity and/or non-viral liver disease. Promising blood-based or imaging-based surveillance strategies are emerging, although these approaches require further validation before adoption in clinical practice. In the interim, efforts should be focused on maximizing use of the existing surveillance tools given their prevalent underuse globally. Remarkable advances have been made in the treatment of HCC, including expanded eligibility for surgical therapies, improved patient selection for locoregional treatments and increased systemic treatment options, including immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we discuss trends in the epidemiology of HCC and their implications for screening, prevention and therapy.

Spherical nucleic acids-based nanoplatforms for tumor precision medicine and immunotherapy

Precise diagnosis and treatment of tumors currently still face considerable challenges due to the development of highly degreed heterogeneity in the dynamic evolution of tumors. With the rapid development of genomics, personalized diagnosis and treatment using specific genes may be a robust strategy to break through the bottleneck of traditional tumor treatment. Nevertheless, efficient in vivo gene delivery has been frequently hampered by the inherent defects of vectors and various biological barriers. Encouragingly, spherical nucleic acids (SNAs) with good modularity and programmability are excellent candidates capable of addressing traditional gene transfer-associated issues, which enables SNAs a precision nanoplatform with great potential for diverse biomedical applications. In this regard, there have been detailed reviews of SNA in drug delivery, gene regulation, and dermatology treatment. Still, to the best of our knowledge, there is no published systematic review summarizing the use of SNAs in oncology precision medicine and immunotherapy, which are considered new guidelines for oncology treatment. To this end, we summarized the notable advances in SNAs-based precision therapy and immunotherapy for tumors following a classification standard of different types of precise spatiotemporal control on active species by SNAs. Specifically, we focus on the structural diversity and programmability of SNAs. Finally, the challenges and possible solutions were discussed in the concluding remarks. This review will promote the rational design and development of SNAs for tumor-precise medicine and immunotherapy.

Comprehensive analysis and validation of SNX7 as a novel biomarker for the diagnosis, prognosis, and prediction of chemotherapy and immunotherapy response in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Studies have demonstrated that Sorting nexin 7 (SNX7) functions as an anti-apoptotic protein in liver tissue and plays a crucial role in the survival of hepatocytes during early embryonic development. However, its diagnostic and prognostic value as well as the predictive value of chemotherapy and immunotherapy have not been reported in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

SNX7 mRNA expression and its diagnostic efficacy were examined in GEO datasets, and the findings were further confirmed in TCGA, ICGC cohorts, and cell lines. The protein level of SNX7 was determined using CPTAC and HPA databases, and the results were validated through immunohistochemistry (IHC). Survival analyses were performed in TCGA and ICGC cohorts, and the results were subsequently validated via Kaplan-Meier Plotter. The response to chemotherapy and immunotherapy was predicted via GDSC dataset and TIDE algorithm, respectively. R packages were employed to explore the relationship between SNX7 expression and immune infiltration, m6A modification, as well as the functional enrichment of differentially expressed genes (DEGs).

RESULTS

The expression of SNX7 at both mRNA and protein levels was significantly upregulated in HCC tissues. SNX7 exhibited superior diagnostic efficacy compared to AFP alone for HCC detection, and combining it with AFP improved the diagnostic accuracy for HCC. High SNX7 was associated with unfavorable outcomes, including poor overall survival, disease-specific survival, progression-free survival, and advanced pathological stage, in patients with HCC, and SNX7 was identified as an independent risk factor for HCC. Moreover, elevated SNX7 expression was positively correlated with increased sensitivity to various chemotherapy drugs, including sorafenib, while it was associated with resistance to immunotherapy in HCC patients. Correlation analysis revealed a relationship between SNX7 and multiple m6A-related genes and various immune cells. Finally, enrichment analysis demonstrated strong associations of SNX7 with critical biological processes, such as cell cycle regulation, cellular senescence, cell adhesion, DNA replication, and mismatch repair pathway in HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the association of SNX7 with the immune microenvironment and its potential influence on HCC progression. SNX7 emerges as a promising novel biomarker for the diagnosis, prognosis, and prediction of response to chemotherapy and immunotherapy in patients with HCC.

TACC3 is an independent prognostic marker, and knockdown of TACC3 enhances the efficacy of CDK1 inhibitor RO3306 in liver cancer cells

The drug resistance of single-target therapy has gradually become an intractable clinical problem. Combination therapy may be an effective treatment to overcome or postpone drug resistance in cancer. Herein, we discussed the synergistic effect of transforming acidic coiled-coil containing protein 3 (TACC3) suppression and cyclin-dependent kinase 1 (CDK1) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The Cancer Genome Atlas database and bioinformatics methods were implemented to analyze the expression of CDK1 and TACC3, and predict the biological function of TACC3-related genes in HCC. In addition, in vitro experiments, including cell counting kit 8, transwell and flow cytometry were utilized to evaluate cell proliferation, migration, invasion, cell cycle arrest and apoptosis of HCC cells. Our results demonstrated that TACC3 is an unfavorable and independent prognostic factor to predict poor overall survival (OS) in HCC patients. Genetic inhibition of TACC3 exhibited a remarkable antineoplastic activity of HCC cell lines. Bioinformatic prediction proposed that CDK1 may be the main regulator of TACC3-related genes in HCC. In vitro experimental measurements suggested that a combination of si-TACC3 and CDK1 inhibitor synergistically inhibited cell proliferation and migration, and induced G2 cell cycle arrest and apoptosis of HepG2 or MHCC97H cells. In conclusion, our results revealed a prospective dual-target, TACC3 and CDK1, therapeutic strategy to improve the treatment of HCC.

Encapsulated papillary carcinoma of the breast: does it have a native basement membrane?

BACKGROUND

Encapsulated papillary carcinoma (EPC) is surrounded by a thick fibrous capsule-like structure, which is interpreted as a thickened basement membrane (BM). This study aimed to describe the geometric characteristics of the EPC capsule and to refine whether it is an expansion of the BM or a stromal reactive process.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In all, 100 cases were divided into four groups: EPC, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), normal breast tissue and invasive tumours, with an additional encapsulated papillary thyroid carcinoma (EPTC) control group. Representative slides from each case were stained with picrosirius red (PSR) stain and examined using polarised microscopy. Images were analysed using ImageJ, CT-FIRE, and Curve align image analysis programmes.

RESULTS

Compared to the normal and DCIS BM, the EPC group showed a significant increase of collagen fibre width, straightness, and density, and a decrease of fibre length. The EPC capsule showed less alignment of fibres with a more perpendicular arrangement, and it was enriched with disorganised collagen type I (stromal collagen) fibres. Compared to other groups, the EPC capsule showed significant variation in the thickness, evenness, distribution of collagen fibres, and significant intracapsular heterogeneity. Compared to BM-like material in the invasive group, the EPC capsule showed a higher density of collagen fibres with longer, straighter, and more aligned fibres, but there was no difference in the distribution of both collagen types I and III. Conversely, compared to EPTC, there were no differences between both EPC and EPTC capsules except that the fibres in the EPC capsule were straighter. Although differences between normal ducts and lobules and DCIS BM collagen fibre density, straightness, orientation, and alignment were detected, both were significantly different from EPC capsule.

CONCLUSION

This study provided evidence that the EPC capsule is a reactive process rather than a thickened native BM characteristic of normal and in situ lesions, which provides further evidence that EPC is an indolent invasive carcinoma based on capsule characteristics.

Screening of liver cancer with abbreviated MRI

Current recommendations for the surveillance of HCC are based on the semiannual liver ultrasound (with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein) in patients with cirrhosis and in subgroups with chronic hepatitis B infection. However, the sensitivity of this strategy is suboptimal for the detection of early-stage tumors, especially in obese patients, due to interoperator variability and poor adherence. The detection rate of focal liver lesions is excellent with MRI, making it the best alternative candidate for surveillance. However, performing a full contrast-enhanced MRI is unrealistic because of limited availability and health economics. Abbreviated MRI (AMRI) corresponds to the acquisition of a limited number of sequences with a high detection rate. The theoretical benefits of AMRI are a reduced acquisition time (≤10 min) with improved time-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness compared with conventional MRI, and greater accuracy than ultrasound. Numerous protocols may be performed, including T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and DWI sequences, with or without contrast administration. Although published studies report promising per-patient results, they should be interpreted with caution. Indeed, most studies were simulated, retrospectively reviewing a subset of sequences in relatively small populations who underwent a full MRI. They also included groups that were not representative of screening populations. In addition, most were published by Asian groups, with at-risk populations that were different from Western populations. There are no existing longitudinal studies that directly compare the different AMRI approaches or AMRI to ultrasound. Finally, it is possible that 1 approach will not fit all patients and that strategies should be tailored to the risk of HCC, in particular in relation to the cost and availability of AMRI. Several trials are ongoing to evaluate these questions.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

Construction and validation of a novel IGFBP3-related signature to predict prognosis and therapeutic decision making for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

IGFBP3 plays a pivotal role in carcinogenesis by being anomalously expressed in some malignancies. However, the clinical value of IGFBP3 and the role of IGFBP3-related signature in HCC remain unclear.

Methods

Multiple bioinformatics methods were used to determine the expression and diagnostic values of IGFBP3. The expression level of IGFBP3 was validated by RT-qPCR and IHC. A IGFBP3-related risk score (IGRS) was built via correlation analysis and LASSO Cox regression analysis. Further analyses, including functional enrichment, immune status of risk groups were analyzed, and the role of IGRS in guiding clinical treatment was also evaluated.

Results

IGFBP3 expression was significantly downregulated in HCC. IGFBP3 expression correlated with multiple clinicopathological characteristics and demonstrated a powerful diagnostic capability for HCC. In addition, a novel IGRS signature was developed in TCGA, which exhibited good performance for prognosis prediction and its role was further validated in GSE14520. In TCGA and GSE14520, Cox analysis also confirmed that the IGRS could serve as an independent prognostic factor for HCC. Moreover, a nomogram with good accuracy for predicting the survival of HCC was further formulated. Additionally, enrichment analysis showed that the high-IGRS group was enriched in cancer-related pathways and immune-related pathways. Additionally, patients with high IGRS exhibited an immunosuppressive phenotype. Therefore, patients with low IGRS scores may benefit from immunotherapy.

Conclusions

IGFBP3 can act as a new diagnostic factor for HCC. IGRS signature represents a valuable predictive tool in the prognosis prediction and therapeutic decision making for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Burden of gastrointestinal cancers in China from 1990 to 2019 and projection through 2029

Although gastrointestinal (GI) cancers pose a great challenge to public health, data are scant for understanding the burden of GI cancers in China. We aimed to provide an updated estimate of the burden of major GI cancers in China over three decades. According to the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, 1,922,362 GI cancer cases were newly diagnosed and 1,497,388 deaths occurred in China in 2020, with the highest incidence in colorectal cancer (555,480 new cases; 23.90/100,000 age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR]) and the highest mortality in liver cancer (391,150 deaths; 17.20/100,000 age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR]). The age-standardized rates (ASRs) in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers have declined overall (1990-2019, average annual perventage change [AAPC] < 0%, p < 0.001) but have become flattened or reversed in recent years, alarmingly. The spectrum of GI cancers in China will continue transitioning in the next decade, characterized by rapid increases in colorectal and pancreatic cancers in addition to a high burden of esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers. High body-mass index was found to be the fastest-growing risk factor for GI cancers (estimated annual perventage change [EAPC]: 2.35%-3.20%, all p < 0.001), whereas smoking and alcohol consumption remained the top contributors to GI cancer-related deaths in men. In conclusion, GI cancers in China are challenging the healthcare system with a growing burden and a transitioning pattern. Comprehensive strategies are needed to reach the Healthy China 2030 target.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), one of the most common causes of liver disease, is an increasingly common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Several demographic, clinical, and genetic factors contribute to HCC risk in NAFLD patients, which may inform risk stratification scores. Proven efficacious approaches to primary prevention approach in patients with non-viral liver disease remain an area of need. Semi-annual surveillance is associated with improved early tumor detection and reduced HCC-related mortality; however, patients with NAFLD have several challenges to effective surveillance, including under-recognition of at-risk patients, low surveillance utilization in clinical practice, and lower sensitivity of current tools for early-stage HCC detection. Treatment decisions are best made in a multidisciplinary fashion and are informed by several factors including tumor burden, liver dysfunction, performance status, and patient preferences. Although patients with NAFLD often have larger tumor burden and increased comorbidities compared to counterparts, they can achieve similar post-treatment survival with careful patient selection. Therefore, surgical therapies continue to provide a curative treatment option for patients diagnosed at an early stage. Although there has been debate about the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with NAFLD, current data are insufficient to change treatment selection based on liver disease etiology.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may progress to cirrhotic or non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and is currently recognized as the fastest growing cause of HCC worldwide. Accordingly, professional society guidelines recommend HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis from any etiology, and some may consider it beneficial in subgroups with non-cirrhotic NAFLD at higher risk for HCC. Notably, patients with NAFLD-related HCC are more likely to have HCC diagnosed at more advanced stages and have poorer outcomes when compared to other etiologies, and suboptimal effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs is a major culprit. In this review, we summarize the current guidelines for HCC surveillance and discuss its benefits versus potential harms for NAFLD patients. We also address the unique challenges of HCC surveillance in NAFLD, including higher proportion of NAFLD-related HCC without cirrhosis, poor recognition of at-risk patients, lack of consensus regarding the value of surveillance in non-cirrhotic NAFLD, subpar effectiveness of surveillance tools related to NAFLD phenotype, and preponderant surveillance underuse among NAFLD patients. Finally, we examine the effectiveness of currently used surveillance tools (i.e., ultrasound and alpha fetoprotein) and outline future perspectives including emerging risk stratification tools, imaging surveillance strategies (e.g., abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging protocols), blood-based biomarkers (e.g., GALAD and circulating tumor DNA panels), and interventions to improve surveillance adherence.

Blood-based biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma screening: Approaching the end of the ultrasound era?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, in part because of inadequate early detection strategies. Current recommendations for screening consist of semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein in patients with cirrhosis and in demographic subgroups with chronic hepatitis B infection. However, this screening strategy has several deficiencies, including suboptimal early-stage sensitivity, false positives with subsequent harms, inter-operator variability in ultrasound performance, and poor adherence. A blood-based biomarker with sufficient performance characteristics for early-stage disease could overcome several of these barriers to improving early-stage detection. However, prior to use of a biomarker for screening in clinical practice, a multistep validation is required in order to understand test performance characteristics. These steps include case-control validation, followed by validation in prospective cohorts of at-risk patients. Until recently, we lacked adequate longitudinal validation cohorts for early HCC detection; however, several validation cohorts are maturing, including the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Study and the Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Consortium, which will allow for rigorous validation of candidate biomarkers. While there are several promising biomarkers awaiting validation, in order to supplant abdominal ultrasound, a candidate biomarker must show adequate test performance and overcome practical hurdles to ensure adoption in clinical practice. The promise of blood-based biomarkers is significant, especially given the limitations of ultrasound-based screening; however, they require adequate validation and several logistical obstacles must be overcome prior to clinical implementation.

Disparities in curative treatments and outcomes for early stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in the United States

BACKGROUND

Curative surgical treatments afford the best prognosis for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA); however, the comparative effectiveness of treatment options and factors associated with curative treatment receipt for early stage iCCA remain unknown.

METHODS

The authors identified patients who were diagnosed with early stage iCCA, defined as a unifocal tumor <3 cm, during 2004-2018 from the National Cancer Database. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to identify the factors associated with curative treatment and overall survival (OS), respectively.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients with early stage iCCA increased from 4.5% in 2004 to 7.3% in 2018, with the odds of early stage detection increasing by 3.1% per year (odds ratio [OR], 1.031; 95% CI, 1.015-1.049). Of 1093 patients who had early stage iCCA, 464 (42.5%) underwent resection, 113 (10.3%) underwent ablation, 62 (5.7%) underwent liver transplantation, and 454 (41.5%) received noncurative treatments. Hispanic patients (adjusted OR [aOR], 0.57; 95% CI, 0.33-0.97) and Black patients (aOR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.28-0.77) were less likely to receive curative treatments than White patients. Compared with patients who underwent surgical resection, those who underwent liver transplantation had a trend toward improved OS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.37-1.08), whereas those who underwent local ablation (aHR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.01-1.92) and noncurative treatments (aHR, 3.97; 95% CI, 3.24-4.88) experienced worse OS.

CONCLUSIONS

More than one third of patients with early stage iCCA did not receive curative treatment, with Hispanic and Black patients being less likely to receive curative treatments than White patients. Surgical resection and liver transplantation were associated with improved survival compared with local ablation. Future studies should investigate disparities in curative treatment receipt and outcomes for early stage iCCA.

Gaps in hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance among insured patients with hepatitis B infection without cirrhosis in the United States

Suboptimal adherence to guidelines for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance among high-risk patients is a persistent problem with substantial detriment to patient outcomes. While patients cite cost as a barrier to surveillance receipt, the financial burden they experience due to surveillance has not been examined. We conducted a retrospective administrative claims study to assess HCC surveillance use and associated costs in a US cohort of insured patients without cirrhosis but with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, monitored in routine clinical practice. Of 6831 patients (1122 on antiviral treatment, 5709 untreated), only 39.3% and 51.3% had received any abdominal imaging after 6 and 12 months, respectively, and patients were up to date with HCC surveillance guidelines for only 28% of the follow-up time. Completion of surveillance was substantially higher at 6 and 12 months among treated patients (51.7% and 69.6%, respectively) compared with untreated patients (36.9% and 47.6%, respectively) (p < 0.001). In adjusted models, treated patients were more likely than untreated patients to receive surveillance (hazard ratio [HR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53-2.01, p < 0.001), and the proportion of those up to date with surveillance was 9.7% higher (95% CI 6.26-13.07, p < 0.001). Mean total and patient-paid daily surveillance-related costs ranged from $99 (ultrasound) to $334 (magnetic resonance imaging), and mean annual patient costs due to lost productivity for surveillance-related outpatient visits ranged from $93 (using the federal minimum wage) to $321 (using the Bureau of Labor Statistics wage). Conclusion: Use of current HCC surveillance strategies was low across patients with HBV infection, and surveillance was associated with substantial patient financial burden. These data highlight an urgent need for accessible and easy-to-implement surveillance strategies with sufficient sensitivity and specificity for early HCC detection.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION

Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP).

METHODS

All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP.

RESULTS

The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from &lt;0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to &gt;10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ .

DISCUSSION

Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Association between ultrasound quality and test performance for HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Ultrasound visualisation is limited in approximately 20% of patients with cirrhosis undergoing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance; however, it is unknown if impaired visualisation directly impacts test performance. We aimed to evaluate the association between ultrasound visualisation and surveillance test performance.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study among patients with cirrhosis, with or without HCC, who underwent ultrasound-based surveillance at two large health systems between July 2016 and July 2019. Ultrasound visualisation assessment was recorded by interpreting radiologists using the ultrasound LI-RADS Visualisation score. We performed logistic regression analyses to evaluate the association between ultrasound visualisation and diagnostic test performance. We assessed sensitivity for HCC detection among ultrasounds performed in the year prior to HCC diagnoses and specificity using ultrasounds in those without HCC.

RESULTS

Among 186 patients with HCC, severely limited visualisation (Vis Score C) on ultrasound prior to HCC diagnosis was associated with increased odds of false-negative results, that is lower sensitivity (OR 7.94, 95% CI 1.23-51.16) in multivariable analysis. Ultrasound sensitivity with visualisation scores A or B exceeded 75%, compared to only 27.3% with visualisation score C. Among 2052 cirrhosis patients without HCC, moderate visualisation limitations (Vis score B) were associated with increased odds of false-positive results (OR 1.60, 1.13-2.27), although specificity exceeded 95% across all visualisation scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired ultrasound visualisation is associated with worse surveillance test performance. Alternative blood-based biomarkers and imaging strategies are needed for patients at risk for ultrasound-based surveillance failure.