1
|
El-Khoury R, Chemaitelly H, Alaama AS, Hermez JG, Nagelkerke N, Abu-Raddad LJ. Hepatitis C risk score as a tool to identify individuals with HCV infection: a demonstration and cross-sectional epidemiological study in Egypt. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e085506. [PMID: 38950989 PMCID: PMC11340217 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-085506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2024] [Accepted: 06/10/2024] [Indexed: 07/03/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection poses a global health challenge. By the end of 2021, the WHO estimated that less than a quarter of global HCV infections had been diagnosed. There is a need for a public health tool that can facilitate the identification of people with HCV infection and link them to testing and treatment, and that can be customised for each country. METHODS We derived and validated a risk score to identify people with HCV in Egypt and demonstrated its utility. Using data from the 2008 and 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, two risk scores were constructed through multivariable logistic regression analysis. A range of diagnostic metrics was then calculated to evaluate the performance of these scores. RESULTS The 2008 and 2014 risk scores exhibited similar dependencies on sex, age and type of place of residence. Both risk scores demonstrated high and similar areas under the curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76 to 0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80), respectively. For the 2008 risk score, sensitivity was 73.7% (95% CI: 71.5% to 75.9%), specificity was 68.5% (95% CI: 67.5% to 69.4%), positive predictive value (PPV) was 27.8% (95% CI: 26.4% to 29.2%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1% (95% CI: 93.5% to 94.6%). For the 2014 risk score, sensitivity was 64.0% (95% CI: 61.5% to 66.6%), specificity was 78.2% (95% CI: 77.5% to 78.9%), PPV was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.9% to 23.5%) and NPV was 95.7% (95% CI: 95.4% to 96.1%). Each score was validated by applying it to a different survey database than the one used to derive it. CONCLUSIONS Implementation of HCV risk scores is an effective strategy to identify carriers of HCV infection and to link them to testing and treatment at low cost to national programmes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rayane El-Khoury
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Ahmed S Alaama
- Department of Communicable Diseases, World Health Organisation Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Joumana G Hermez
- Department of Communicable Diseases, World Health Organisation Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Nico Nagelkerke
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Al Kaabi H, Al Alawi AM, Al Falahi Z, Al-Naamani Z, Al Busafi SA. Clinical Characteristics, Etiology, and Prognostic Scores in Patients with Acute Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis. J Clin Med 2023; 12:5756. [PMID: 37685822 PMCID: PMC10488876 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12175756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Revised: 08/26/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis contribute significantly to global mortality, with limited improvements despite medical advancements. This study aims to evaluate acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis characteristics, etiology, and survival outcomes in Oman. In addition, we examined the accuracy of prognostic scores in predicting mortality at 28 and 90 days. METHODS We conducted a retrospective analysis of 173 adult patients with acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital in Oman. We collected demographic, clinical, and biochemical data, including etiology, prognostic scores (CTP, MELD-Na, CLIF-C), and health outcomes. RESULTS Alcohol (29.5%), hepatitis C (27.75%), and hepatitis B (26.74%) were the predominant causes of liver cirrhosis in our cohort. Hepatic encephalopathy, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit were strongly associated with an increased mortality rate. The 1-year readmission rate stood at 42.2%. Liver transplantation was performed in 4.1% of cases. The overall mortality rate was approximately 40% during the follow-up period, and the cumulative 28-days and 90-days mortality rates were 20.8% and 25.4%, respectively. Prognostic scores (CTP, MELD-Na, CLIF-C) effectively predicted 28- and 90-day mortality, with CLIF-C demonstrating superior performance (AUROC 0.8694 ± 0.0302 for 28-day mortality and AUROC 0.8382 ± 0.0359 for 90-day mortality). CONCLUSION Alcohol and viral hepatitis are the leading causes of liver cirrhosis in our study. Hepatic encephalopathy is a significant predictor of poor outcomes. Prognostic scores (CTP, MELD-Na, CLIF-C) have valuable predictive abilities for short-term mortality. These findings highlight the importance of public strategies to reduce alcohol consumption and the need for the comprehensive management of liver cirrhosis in Oman. Early diagnosis and intervention can improve clinical outcomes and support the establishment of a national organ transplantation program to address the healthcare challenge effectively.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hoor Al Kaabi
- Internal Medicine Residency Training Program, Oman Medical Specialty Board, Muscat 130, Oman; (H.A.K.); (Z.A.F.); (S.A.A.B.)
| | - Abdullah M. Al Alawi
- Internal Medicine Residency Training Program, Oman Medical Specialty Board, Muscat 130, Oman; (H.A.K.); (Z.A.F.); (S.A.A.B.)
- Department of Medicine, Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Muscat 123, Oman;
| | - Zubaida Al Falahi
- Internal Medicine Residency Training Program, Oman Medical Specialty Board, Muscat 130, Oman; (H.A.K.); (Z.A.F.); (S.A.A.B.)
- Department of Medicine, Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Muscat 123, Oman;
| | - Zakariya Al-Naamani
- Department of Medicine, Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Muscat 123, Oman;
| | - Said A. Al Busafi
- Internal Medicine Residency Training Program, Oman Medical Specialty Board, Muscat 130, Oman; (H.A.K.); (Z.A.F.); (S.A.A.B.)
- Department of Medicine, Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Muscat 123, Oman;
- College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat 123, Oman
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Mahmud S, Chemaitelly H, Alaama AS, Hermez JG, Abu-Raddad L. Hepatitis C virus among blood donors and general population in Middle East and North Africa: Meta-analyses and meta-regressions. World J Meta-Anal 2022; 10:12-24. [DOI: 10.13105/wjma.v10.i1.12] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2021] [Revised: 09/16/2021] [Accepted: 12/31/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region reported to have the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) globally, HCV infection levels in the majority of MENA countries remain inadequately characterized. Blood donor data have been previously used as a proxy to assess levels and trends of HCV in the general population, however, it is unclear how comparable these populations are in MENA and whether blood donors provide an appropriate proxy.
AIM To delineate HCV epidemiology among blood donors and the general population in the MENA.
METHODS The data source was the systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted. For comparison, analyses were conducted for Europe, utilizing the Hepatitis C Prevalence Database of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
RESULTS One thousand two hundred and thirteen HCV antibody prevalence measures and 84 viremic rate measures were analyzed for MENA. Three hundred and seventy-seven antibody prevalence measures were analyzed for Europe. In MENA, pooled mean prevalence was 1.58% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.48%–1.69%] among blood donors and 4.49% (95%CI: 4.10%–4.90%) in the general population. In Europe, pooled prevalence was 0.11% (95%CI: 0.10%–0.13%) among blood donors and 1.59% (95%CI: 1.25%–1.97%) in the general population. Prevalence in the general population was 1.72-fold (95%CI: 1.50–1.97) higher than that in blood donors in MENA, but it was 15.10-fold (95%CI: 11.48–19.86) higher in Europe. Prevalence was declining at a rate of 4% per year in both MENA and Europe [adjusted risk ratio: 0.96 (95%CI: 0.95–0.97) in MENA and 0.96 (95%CI: 0.92–0.99) in Europe]. Pooled mean viremic rate in MENA was 76.29% (95%CI: 67.64%–84.02%) among blood donors and 65.73% (95%CI: 61.03%–70.29%) in the general population.
CONCLUSION Blood donor data provide a useful proxy for HCV infection in the wider population in MENA, but not Europe, and could improve HCV burden estimations and assess progress toward HCV elimination by 2030.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sarwat Mahmud
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha 24144, Qatar
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha 24144, Qatar
| | - Ahmed S Alaama
- Department of Communicable Diseases, HIV/Hepatitis/ STIs Unit, World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo 11371, Egypt
| | - Joumana G Hermez
- Department of Communicable Diseases, HIV/Hepatitis/ STIs Unit, World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo 11371, Egypt
| | - Laith Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Doha 24144, Qatar
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Hedayati-Moghaddam MR, Soltanian H, Ahmadi-Ghezeldasht S. Occult hepatitis C virus infection in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis. World J Hepatol 2021; 13:242-260. [PMID: 33708353 PMCID: PMC7934012 DOI: 10.4254/wjh.v13.i2.242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2020] [Revised: 11/25/2020] [Accepted: 12/08/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The presence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA in liver tissue or peripheral blood mononuclear cells with no identified virus genome in the serum has been reported worldwide among patients with either normal or elevated serum liver enzymes. The characterization of occult HCV infection (OCI) epidemiology in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean (M and E) countries, a region with the highest incidence and prevalence rates of HCV infection in the world, would be effective for more appropriate control of the infection.
AIM To estimate the pooled prevalence of OCI in M and E countries using a systematic review and meta-analysis.
METHODS A systematic literature search was performed using international, regional and local electronic databases. Some conference proceedings and references from bibliographies were also reviewed manually. The search was carried out during May and June 2020. Original observational surveys were considered if they assessed the prevalence of OCI among the population of M and E countries by examination of HCV nucleic acid in peripheral blood mononuclear cells in at least 30 cases selected by random or non-random sampling methods. The meta-analysis was performed using Comprehensive Meta-analysis software based on heterogeneity assessed by Cochran’s Q test and I-square statistics. Data were considered statistically significant at a P value < 0.05.
RESULTS A total of 116 non-duplicated citations were found in electronic sources and grey literature. A total of 51 non-overlapping original surveys were appraised, of which 37 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Data were available from 5 of 26 countries including Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The overall prevalence rate of OCI was estimated at 10.04% (95%CI: 7.66%-13.05%). The lowest OCI rate was observed among healthy subjects (4.79%, 95%CI: 2.86%-7.93%). The higher rates were estimated for patients suffering from chronic liver diseases (12.04%, 95%CI: 5.87%-23.10%), and multi-transfused patients (8.71%, 95%CI: 6.05%-12.39%). Subgroup analysis indicated that the OCI rates were probably not associated with the studied subpopulations, country, year of study, the detection method of HCV RNA, sample size, patients’ HCV serostatus, and sex (all P > 0.05). Meta-regression analyses showed no significant time trends in OCI rates among different groups.
CONCLUSION This review estimated high rates of OCI prevalence in M and E countries, especially among multi-transfused patients as well as patients with chronic liver diseases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Reza Hedayati-Moghaddam
- Blood Borne Infections Research Center, Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Razavi Khorasan Branch, Mashhad 91779-49367, Iran
| | - Hossein Soltanian
- Blood Borne Infections Research Center, Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Razavi Khorasan Branch, Mashhad 91779-49367, Iran
| | - Sanaz Ahmadi-Ghezeldasht
- Blood Borne Infections Research Center, Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Razavi Khorasan Branch, Mashhad 91779-49367, Iran
| |
Collapse
|