The association between change in body mass index and upper aerodigestive tract cancers in the ARCAGE project: multicenter case-control study

Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model

BACKGROUND

Head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence is on the rise, often diagnosed at late stage and associated with poor prognoses. Risk prediction tools have a potential role in prevention and early detection.

METHODS

The IARC-ARCAGE European case-control study was used as the model development dataset. A clinical HNC risk prediction model using behavioral and demographic predictors was developed via multivariable logistic regression analyses. The model was then externally validated in the UK Biobank cohort. Model performance was tested using discrimination and calibration metrics.

RESULTS

1926 HNC cases and 2043 controls were used for the development of the model. The development dataset model including sociodemographic, smoking, and alcohol variables had moderate discrimination, with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.77); the calibration slope (0.75) and tests were suggestive of good calibration. 384 616 UK Biobank participants (with 1177 HNC cases) were available for external validation of the model. Upon external validation, the model had an AUC of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.64).

CONCLUSION

We developed and externally validated a HNC risk prediction model using the ARCAGE and UK Biobank studies, respectively. This model had moderate performance in the development population and acceptable performance in the validation dataset. Demographics and risk behaviors are strong predictors of HNC, and this model may be a helpful tool in primary dental care settings to promote prevention and determine recall intervals for dental examination. Future addition of HPV serology or genetic factors could further enhance individual risk prediction.

Changes in Body Mass Index Are Associated with Squamous Cell Carcinomas of Oral Cavity, Oropharynx and Larynx: A Case-Control Study in Brazil

Head and neck cancer (HNC) significantly impacts nutritional status because the tumor limits swallowing function. In this sense, it is important to monitor the nutritional status throughout the life of any individual. A multicenter case-control study was carried out to analyze the BMI at 30 years of age, two years before diagnosis and at the time of diagnosis of individuals with oral cavity, oropharynx, and larynx cancers. It was observed that a 5% reduction in BMI during the two years before enrollment was associated with an increased risk of the oral cavity (OR = 3.73), oropharyngeal OR = 5.25), and laryngeal (OR = 5.22). Reduced BMI of more than 5% over two years before diagnosis was associated with HNC. Weight loss remained significant at diagnosis, but it is not possible to exclude reverse causality since most cases are at an advanced stage. BMI monitoring of individuals at potential risk for HNC can promote early diagnosis and nutritional interventions for HNC.

Mediation analysis of erythrocyte lipophilic index on the association between BMI and risk of oral cancer

Aims

To explore the relationship between the fatty acid lipophilic index (LI) of the erythrocyte membrane and oral cancer risk, as well as to evaluate the possibility of LI acting as a mediator of the association between body mass index (BMI) and oral cancer.

Method

Twenty-three fatty acids (FAs) of the erythrocyte membrane were measured using gas chromatography in 380 patients with oral cancer and 387 control subjects. The LI was calculated based on the FA proportion and FA melting points. The association of BMI and erythrocyte LI with oral cancer risk was analysed using logistic regression. The mediation effect of LI on the association between BMI and oral cancer risk was evaluated using mediation analysis.

Results

Among the control group, 46.0% were overweight or obese, which was significantly higher than that of oral cancer patients (29.5%). Significant differences in erythrocyte membrane saturated fatty acids (SFAs), monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs), and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) were observed between the patient and control groups. The proportion of C18:1 n-9 from the MUFA family increased in oral cancer patients (12.67%) compared with controls (12.21%). While the total proportion of n-3 PUFAs decreased in oral cancer patients compared with controls, with C20:5 n-3 decreasing from 0.66 to 0.47%, and C22:6 n-3 decreasing from 5.82 to 4.86%. The LI was lower in the control participants (M = 27.6, IQR: 27.3–27.9) than in the oral cancer patients (M = 28.2, IQR: 27.9–28.5). BMI was inversely associated with oral cancer risk with a fully adjusted OR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43–0.83), while LI was positively associated with oral cancer risk with a fully adjusted OR of 1.99 (95% CI:1.36–2.94). LI explained 7% of the variance in the relationship between BMI and oral cancer risk.

Conclusions

The distribution of the FA profile in erythrocyte membranes differed between the oral cancer patients and the control group. The LI derived from the profile of FAs was positively associated with the risk of oral cancer, and the associations between BMI and oral cancer risk can be explained, at least in part, by LI.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12944-022-01704-z.

The Body Mass Index Paradox in Head and Neck Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The body mass index (BMI) paradox describes that among patients with certain cancers, higher pretreatment BMI may be associated with improved survival. We examine the impact of BMI on overall survival (OS) in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients. A literature search was performed, and articles using hazard ratios to describe the prognostic impact of BMI on OS in HNSCC were included. Random-effects DerSimonian and Laird methods were employed for meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of OS indicated a lower hazards of death in the overweight (BMI: 25 kg/m2-30 kg/m2) compared to the normal weight (BMI: 18.5 kg/m2-25 kg/m2). This protective relationship loses significance when BMI exceeds 30 kg/m². Underweight patients (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2) demonstrate higher hazards of death compared to normal weight patients. Compared to HNSCC patients with normal weight, being overweight up to a BMI of 30 kg/m² is a positive predictor of OS, while being underweight confers a prognostic disadvantage. Further studies are needed to determine the mechanisms by which increased body mass influences survival outcomes in HNSCC.

Adult height, body mass index change, and body shape change in relation to esophageal squamous cell carcinoma risk: A population-based case-control study in China

The relationship between risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adult height, changes in individual body mass index (BMI) and body shape is not established. We performed a large population‐based case‐control study, which enrolled a total of 1414 ESCC cases and 1989 controls in a high‐incidence area in China. Using face‐to‐face interview with a structured questionnaire, information on participants' heights, weights, and perceived body shapes at 20 years of age was collected. Additionally, data on weight and perceived body shape among the same participants 10 years prior to ascertainment were collected using the same method. Odd ratios (ORs) of ESCC risk in relation to BMI and body shape were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models. The adjusted results indicated that ESCC risk in adults rapidly rose as height increased, plateauing at 170 cm among men and 157 cm among women. Among participants who were underweight, normal weight, or thinner than body shape 4, body weight loss was associated with increased risk of ESCC, and body weight gain was associated with decreased incidence of ESCC (ORs ranging from 0.40 to 0.76). Notably, however, changes in body weight did not significantly affect ESCC risk among participants who were overweight, obese, or larger than body shape 3. Maintaining a fit body shape and a reasonable BMI is advisable and of vital importance to reduce the risk of ESCC, especially in high‐risk areas.

Obesity: An emerging driver of head and neck cancer

Obesity has become pandemic and emerged as one of the most critical global health care problems worldwide since last century. Recent studies have demonstrated that there may be a causal link between obesity and higher risks and mortality of cancers, including prostate, breast, colon, and thyroid cancers, head and neck cancer (HNC). This review focuses on the relationship between obesity and HNC, and the molecular mechanism of abnormal lipid metabolism in HNC. Elucidating the mechanism may open up new possibilities for strategies to reduce risk and mortality of HNC in an increasingly obese population.

Body mass index change during adulthood and risk of oesophageal squamous-cell carcinoma in a Japanese population: the Japan Public Health (JPHC)-based prospective study

Background:

The influence of body mass index (BMI) change during adulthood on the development of oesophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (ESCC) is unknown.

Methods:

Based on the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study, we enrolled 103 238 participants from 1990 to 1994. Anthropometric data at age 20 years, baseline, and 5- and/or 10-year follow-up surveys were collected by questionnaire. The effect of BMI change between age 20 years and baseline on ESCC risk was estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models. The updated BMI was taken into account by fitting a simple linear regression model for each individual, where the slope was incorporated into regressions as a time-varying variable.

Results:

After excluding the first 5 years of observation, we identified 342 newly diagnosed ESCC cases. An increase in BMI during adulthood was linked with a decreased risk of ESCC development, with each 1% increase per 5 years corresponding to a 15% decrease in ESCC risk (95% confidence interval 9–21%). Identical estimates were obtained from time-dependent models. The importance of BMI change was not modified by gender, smoking, or alcohol drinking but confined to participants assessed as non-overweight at baseline.

Conclusions:

An increase in BMI during adulthood is associated with a lower risk of developing ESCC among non-overweight subjects.

A risk factor-based model for upper aerodigestive tract cancers in India: predicting and validating the receiver operating characteristic curve

BACKGROUND

A study was conducted to develop and validate a screening model using risk scores to identify individuals at high risk for developing upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers in an Indian population.

METHODS

A hospital-based case-control study (n = 480) was conducted in Pune, India. We assessed risk factors for UADT cancers by administering a questionnaire through face-to-face interviews. We developed a risk factor model based on the statistically significant risk factors in multiple logistic regression. A total, single risk score was calculated per individual based on the adjusted odds ratio for each of their risk factors. Standard receiver operator characteristic curve was plotted for the total score and the presence of UADT cancers. The stratification ability of the model was determined using the c-statistic. The optimal criterion value was determined at the point on curve at which the Youden's index was maximal. Confidence intervals were calculated by bootstrapping.

RESULTS

Total risk score for each individual ranged from 0 to 26. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95.8; P < 0.001) suggests strong predictive ability. A risk score criterion value of ≤10 produced optimal sensitivity (93.5%), specificity (71.1%), false-positive rate (28.8%), false-negative rate (6.4%), positive predictive value (74.8%), and negative predictive value (96.6%).

CONCLUSION

This risk factor-based model has the potential of satisfactorily screening and detection of UADT cancers at its early stage in a high-risk population like India. The identified at-risk individuals can then be targeted for clinical examination and for focused preventive/treatment measures at the hospital.

Laryngeal preservation in ENT oncology. Retrospective series of 246 patients managed in the Caen University Hospital and François Baclesse Cancer Care Center between 1998 and 2008

OBJECTIVES

A 10-year retrospective study investigated factors for survival and laryngeal preservation in advanced laryngeal, hypopharyngeal or epilaryngeal neoplasia.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

Two hundred and forty-six patients with advanced cancer of the larynx (17.48%), hypopharynx (48.78%) or epilarynx (33.74%) undergoing primary organ-sparing treatment were included from 1998 to 2008. Treatment comprised chemotherapy followed by radiation therapy for 92.68% of patients, isolated radiation therapy for 1.6% and concomitant or sequential radiation-chemotherapy for 5.7%. General health status, history and tumor status were recorded. Factors influencing survival were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test and Cox models.

RESULTS

Median overall survival of the population was 2.3 years and median laryngeal preservation 0.99 years in male patients and 2 years in female patients. Survival correlated significantly with body mass index (BMI; P=0.0004), WHO performance status (P=0.0064), alcohol consumption (P=0.0004) and cessation (P<0.0001) and also T stage (P=0.0038), initial laryngeal mobility (P=0.0002) and post-chemotherapy assessment (P<0.0001). Survival with functional larynx correlated with baseline BMI at first consultation (P=0.016), baseline WHO grade (P=0.0005), laryngeal mobility (P<0.0001), T staging (P=0.0009), and T and/or N chemotherapy response to a classical organ preservation protocol (P<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Over and above established criteria, the present study highlighted the importance of general health and nutritional status during treatment.

A prospective cohort study of body size and risk of head and neck cancers in the NIH-AARP diet and health study

BACKGROUND

The association between body size and head and neck cancers (HNCA) is unclear, partly because of the biases in case-control studies.

METHODS

In the prospective NIH-AARP cohort study, 218,854 participants (132,288 men and 86,566 women), aged 50 to 71 years, were cancer free at baseline (1995 and 1996), and had valid anthropometric data. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the associations between body size and HNCA, adjusted for current and past smoking habits, alcohol intake, education, race, and fruit and vegetable consumption, and reported as HR and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Until December 31, 2006, 779 incident HNCAs occurred: 342 in the oral cavity, 120 in the oro- and hypopharynx, 265 in the larynx, 12 in the nasopharynx, and 40 at overlapping sites. There was an inverse association between HNCA and body mass index, which was almost exclusively among current smokers (HR = 0.76 per each 5 U increase; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), and diminished as initial years of follow-up were excluded. We observed a direct association with waist-to-hip ratio (HR = 1.16 per 0.1 U increase; 95% CI, 1.03-1.31), particularly for cancers of the oral cavity (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.17-1.67). Height was also directly associated with total HNCAs (P = 0.02), and oro- and hypopharyngeal cancers (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of HNCAs was associated inversely with leanness among current smokers, and directly with abdominal obesity and height.

IMPACT

Our study provides evidence that the association between leanness and risk of HNCAs may be due to effect modification by smoking.

Risk factors for second primary neoplasia of esophagus in newly diagnosed head and neck cancer patients: a case-control study

Background

The prevalence of esophageal neoplasia in head and neck (H&N) cancer patients is not low; however, routine esophageal surveillance is not included in staging of newly-diagnosed H&N cancers. We aimed to investigate the risk factors for synchronous esophageal neoplasia and the impact of endoscopy on management of H&N cancer patients.

Methods

A total of 129 newly diagnosed H&N cancer patients who underwent endoscopy with white-light imaging, narrow-band imaging (NBI) with magnifying endoscopy (ME), and chromoendoscopy with 1.5% Lugol’s solution, before definite treatment were enrolled prospectively.

Results

60 esophageal lesions were biopsied from 53 (41.1%) patients, including 11 low-grade, 14 high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia and 12 invasive carcinoma in 30 (23.3%) patients. Alcohol consumption [odds ratio (OR) 5.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-26.44], advanced stage (stage III and IV) of index H&N cancers (OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.11-7.99), and lower body mass index (BMI) (every 1-kg/m² increment with OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.76-0.99) were independent risk factors for synchronous esophageal neoplasia. NBI with ME was the ideal screening tool (sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 97.3%, 94.1%, and 96.3%, respectively, for detection of dysplastic and cancerous esophageal lesions). The treatment strategy was modified after endoscopy in 20 (15.5%) patients. The number needed to screen was 6.45 (95% CI 4.60-10.90).

Conclusions

NBI-ME surveillance of esophagus should be done in newly-diagnosed H&N cancer patients, especially those with alcohol drinking, lower BMI, and advanced stage of primary tumor.

Prognostic value of body mass index for patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The correlation between high body mass index and outcomes after esophagectomy has not been systematically addressed. Some studies have shown that patients with a high body mass index had better overall survival and disease-free survival compared with those with a normal/low body mass index, whereas others have shown that the body mass index was not of prognostic value.

METHODS

Ninety-nine patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were retrospectively reviewed in this study. Patients' postoperative overall and disease-free survivals were compared between the two groups (body mass index <24.00 kg/m(2) and body mass index ≥24.00 kg/m(2)).

RESULTS

There were 66 patients in the low/normal body mass index group (body mass index <24.00 kg/m(2)) and 28 patients in the high body mass index group (body mass index ≥24.00 kg/m(2)). Although disease recurrence were more frequent in the high body mass index group vs. the low/normal body mass index group, there was no significant difference noted (60.7%, 40.9%, P = 0.078). The 3-year overall survival rates were 60.6% in the low/normal body mass index group and 57.1% in the high body mass index group (P = 0.392). The 3-year disease-free survival rates were higher in the low/normal body mass index group vs. the high body mass index group (56.1%, 39.3%, P = 0.048). On multivariate analysis, the number of lymph node metastases (hazard ratio: 1.192, 95% confidence interval: 1.076-1.320, P = 0.001) was recognized as an independent prognostic factor for overall survival. Both body weight loss (hazard ratio: 2.153, 95% confidence interval: 1.027-4.511, P = 0.042) and the number of lymph node metastases (hazard ratio: 1.669, 95% confidence interval: 1.297-2.146, P < 0.001) were significantly and independently associated with disease-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that high body mass index appears to shorten disease-free survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients and further studies are needed to detect the mechanism.

Body mass index change in adulthood and lung and upper aerodigestive tract cancers

Body mass index (BMI) has been inversely associated with lung and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers. However, only a few studies have assessed BMI change in adulthood in relation to cancer. To understand the relationship between BMI change and these cancers in both men and women, we analyzed data from a population-based case-control study conducted in Los Angeles County. Adulthood BMI change was measured as the proportional change in BMI between age 21 and 1 year before interview or diagnosis. Five categories of BMI change were included, and individuals with no more than a 5% loss or gain were defined as having a stable BMI (reference group). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression models. Potential confounders included age, gender, ethnicity, education, tobacco smoking and energy intake. For UADT cancers, we also adjusted for alcohol drinking status and frequency. A BMI gain of 25% or higher in adulthood was inversely associated with lung cancer (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.33-0.84) and UADT cancers (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.27-0.71). In subgroup analyses, a BMI gain of ≥25% was inversely associated with lung and UADT cancers among current and former smokers, as well as among current and former alcohol drinkers. The inverse association persisted among moderate and heavy smokers (≥20 pack-years). The observed inverse associations between adulthood BMI gain and lung and UADT cancers indicate a potential role for body weight-related biological pathways in the development of lung and UADT cancers.

Tobacco, alcohol, body mass index, physical activity, and the risk of head and neck cancer in the prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian (PLCO) cohort

BACKGROUND

Estimation of attributable fractions for tobacco and alcohol, and investigation of the association between body mass index (BMI) and head and neck cancer risk have largely been in case-control studies. These aspects and physical activity need to be assessed as possible head and neck cancer risk/protective factors in a cohort study.

METHODS

In the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial, of the 101,182 study subjects, 177 individuals developed head and neck cancer.

RESULTS

The proportion of head and neck cancer cases attributed to tobacco and/or alcohol was 66% (50.5% tobacco alone, 14.7% alcohol alone, 0.9% tobacco and alcohol combined). BMI was not associated with head and neck cancer risk, but increasing hours of physical activity per week was associated with a reduced head and neck cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.35-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Cigarette smoking is clearly the most important head and neck cancer risk factor in this population. The reduced cancer risk due to physical activity was consistent with results from a pooled analysis of case-control studies.

[Laryngeal carcinoma: epidemiology, risk factors and survival]

Laryngeal cancer is one of the most frequent types of head and neck cancer. The incidence is decreasing for men but still increasing for women. The incidence in Germany is about 5-7/100,000 persons/year for men and 0.6-0.8/100,000 persons/year for women. Due to the increased life expectancy, the average age of patients diagnosed with laryngeal cancer is increasing. Nevertheless, adequately prepared older patients treated by standard protocols can have the same survival and complication rates as younger patients. Tobacco and alcohol are still the primary risk factors responsible for disease in at least 80% of the patients. Despite the many new diagnostic tools, still more than half of the patients are diagnosed at an advanced tumor stage. Survival rates have not improved significantly in the last 10 years in Germany, and the average 5-year overall survival rate is about 60%. However, a decrease in the survival rate, as observed in the USA, cannot be confirmed for Germany.