Potential lives saved in 73 countries by adopting multi-cohort vaccination of 9-14-year-old girls against human papillomavirus

Optimal human papillomavirus vaccination strategies in the context of vaccine supply constraints in 100 countries

Background

Countries are recommended to immunise adolescent girls routinely with one or two doses of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. With most existing vaccine doses absorbed by countries (mostly high-income) with existing HPV vaccination programmes, limited supply has been left for new country introductions until 2022; many of those, low- and middle-income countries with higher mortality. Several vaccination strategies were considered by the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization to allow more countries to introduce vaccination despite constrained supplies.

Methods

We examined the impact of nine strategies for allocating limited vaccine doses to 100 pre-introduction countries from 2020 to 2030. Two algorithms were used to optimise the total number of cancer deaths that can be averted worldwide by a limited number of doses (knapsack and decreasing order of country-specific mortality rates), and an unoptimised algorithm (decreasing order of Human Development Index) were used.

Findings

Routinely vaccinating 14-year-old girls with either one or two doses and switching to a routine 9-year-old programme when supply is no longer constrained could prevent the most cervical cancer deaths, regardless of allocation algorithm. The unoptimised allocation averts fewer deaths because it allocates first to higher-income countries, usually with lower cervical cancer mortality.

Interpretation

To optimise the deaths averted through vaccination when supply is limited, it is important to prioritise high-burden countries and vaccinating older girls first.

Funding

WHO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Low-Resource African Settings

Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer among women. Approximately 350,000 women die from cervical needlessly from cancer each year, and 85% of the global burden occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Disparities in the incidence and mortality between LMICs and industrialized countries can be attributed to differences in access to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening and treatment. The World Health Organization (WHO) is leading a renewed international effort to reduce the global burden of cervical cancer. In this article, we discuss recommendations for HPV vaccination, primary HPV screening, and treatment of precancerous lesions.

Discrepancy of human papillomavirus vaccine uptake and intent between girls 9-14 and their mothers in a pilot region of Shanghai, China

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake remains low in China, especially among girls. Recently, China has initiated a pilot program on HPV immunization for girls aged 9-14 years. We conducted a cross-sectional online survey in Minhang district of Shanghai, a pilot region for the program, to investigate HPV vaccination status among mothers and their daughters 9-14. A total of 1031 parents and 1122 daughters 9-14 were included. Of them, 18.6% of mothers and 4.5% of daughters had been vaccinated with HPV vaccines or made an appointment; additionally, 62.7% and 78.4% intended to receive vaccination but did not make an appointment. Notably, 6.2% of parents did not intend to receive vaccination for themselves (or their wives) but intended to vaccinate their daughters. Moreover, we calculated parental knowledge and awareness scores toward HPV infection and vaccination. Both scores were significantly higher among the parents who had received HPV vaccination than those who intended to across mothers' vaccination status (P < .001 for knowledge and P = .019 for awareness), whereas similar between the two groups across daughters' vaccination status (P = .694 and P = .737). Parents believed mothers had a significantly higher susceptibility to HPV infection and lower health consequences, compared to daughters 9-12 (P = .002 and P < .001) or those 13-14 (both P < .001). In conclusion, HPV vaccine uptake remains a discrepancy between mothers and their daughters 9-14. However, their intents to receive HPV vaccination were both high. Parental knowledge and awareness may improve vaccination intent for daughters 9-14 in China. It warrants a certain health education toward susceptibility to HPV infection and health consequences.

Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan: a comparative modelling study

Introduction

Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. Our study objective was to assess similarities and differences in vaccine-impact projections through comparative modelling analysis by independently estimating the potential health impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

Methods

Using two widely published models (Harvard and Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME)) to estimate HPV vaccination impact, we simulated a vaccination scenario of 90% annual coverage among 10 cohorts of 9-year-old girls from 2021 to 2030 in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. We estimated potential health impact in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years averted among vaccinated cohorts from the time of vaccination until 2100. We harmonised the two models by standardising input data to comparatively estimate HPV vaccination impact.

Results

Prior to harmonising model assumptions, the range between PRIME and Harvard models for number of cervical cancer cases averted by HPV vaccination was: 262 000 to 2 70 000 in Ethiopia; 1 640 000 to 1 970 000 in India; 330 000 to 3 36 000 in Nigeria and 111 000 to 1 33 000 in Pakistan. When harmonising model assumptions, alignment on HPV type distribution significantly narrowed differences in vaccine-impact estimates.

Conclusion

Despite model differences, the Harvard and PRIME models yielded similar vaccine-impact estimates. The main differences in estimates are due to variation in interpretation around data on cervical cancer attribution to HPV-16/18. As countries make progress towards WHO targets for cervical cancer elimination, continued explorations of underlying differences in model inputs, assumptions and results when examining cervical cancer prevention policy will be critical.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

National implementation of HPV vaccination programs in low-resource countries: Lessons, challenges, and future prospects

More than 90% of cervical cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which have limited capacity to mount the comprehensive national screening and precancer treatment programs that could prevent most of these deaths. The development of vaccines against the human papillomavirus (HPV) has dramatically altered the landscape of cervical cancer prevention. As of mid-2020, 56 LMICs (41% of all LMICs) have initiated national HPV vaccination programs. This paper reviews the experience of LMICs that have introduced HPV vaccine into their national programs, key lessons learned, HPV vaccination sustainability and scale-up challenges, and future mitigation measures. As international guidance evolved and countries accumulated experience, strategies for national introduction shifted with regard to target groups, delivery site and timing, preparation and planning, communications and social mobilization, and ultimately monitoring, supervision and evaluation. Despite the successes that LMICs have been able to achieve in reaching large proportions of eligible girls, there are still considerable challenges countries encounter in overcoming rumors, reaching out-of-school girls, completing the vaccine series, estimating target populations, monitoring program performance, and assuring vaccination sustainability. New opportunities, such as the entry of additional vaccine manufacturers and ongoing studies to evaluate one-dose delivery, could help overcome the outstanding barriers to higher coverage and financial sustainability. Effective use of the experience to date and advances on the horizon could enable all LMICs to move towards the coverage levels that are needed to achieve eventual elimination.

Vaccine hesitancy

In summer 2019 an extracurricular activity was started at the Medical University of Vienna (MUW) with the title: “Esoterism in Medicine”, where different chapters were evaluated by students. Here we present the subheading “Vaccine Hesitancy”. Three students formulated arguments from sceptic, hesitant or anti-vaccine groups and discussed the scientific literature to rebut it. Frequent objections were partly taken from the homepage of the German Robert-Koch-Institute, the home of the “Ständige Impfkommission”. Other objections were taken from blogs and social media. The students’ rebuttal was based on current scientific literature (preferentially pubmed), but also from other scientific sources like authorities.

Effects of updated demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden on estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination impact at the global, regional, and national levels: a PRIME modelling study

Background

The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) has been used around the world to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in girls. We updated PRIME with new data and methods for demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden, and generated revised estimates of the health impact of HPV vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels for 177 countries.

Methods

PRIME was updated with population demography of the UN World Population Prospects (UNWPP) 2019 revision, disability weights of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, and cervical cancer burden from the Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence (GLOBOCAN) 2018 database. We estimated the lifetime health benefits for bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccination of 9-year-old and 12-year-old girls at 90% coverage during 2020–29 in 177 countries. Health impact was presented in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths, or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted per 1000 vaccinated girls in comparison with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination, and the number of girls needed to be vaccinated to prevent a single case, death, or DALY.

Findings

In estimating the health impact of HPV vaccination of 9-year-old girls, the combined updates to demography, disability weights, cervical cancer burden estimates resulted in a 26% increase in the estimated number of cases averted, a 51% increase in deaths averted, and a 72% increase in DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated girls for both the bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines, compared with previous estimates. With the updated model, the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 15 cases, 12 deaths, and 243 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls, and the nonavalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 19 cases, 14 deaths, and 306 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls. The health benefits of vaccination of 12-year-old girls were estimated to be similar but slightly decreased in comparison with vaccination of 9-year-old girls.

Interpretation

HPV vaccination provides greater health benefits and is more cost-effective than was previously estimated. The demography update, which incorporates population aging, has the largest effect on the health impact estimates. The WHO African region is expected to gain the greatest health benefits and should be prioritised for HPV vaccination.

Funding

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

The WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination.

METHODS

The WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC), which consists of three independent transmission-dynamic models identified by WHO according to predefined criteria, projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 LMICs for three standardised base-case scenarios: girls-only vaccination; girls-only vaccination and once-lifetime screening; and girls-only vaccination and twice-lifetime screening. Girls were vaccinated at age 9 years (with a catch-up to age 14 years), assuming 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection against HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Cervical screening involved HPV testing once or twice per lifetime at ages 35 years and 45 years, with uptake increasing from 45% (2023) to 90% (2045 onwards). The elimination thresholds examined were an average age-standardised cervical cancer incidence of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years and ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and an 85% or greater reduction in incidence. Sensitivity analyses were done, varying vaccination and screening strategies and assumptions. We summarised results using the median (range) of model predictions.

FINDINGS

Girls-only HPV vaccination was predicted to reduce the median age-standardised cervical cancer incidence in LMICs from 19·8 (range 19·4-19·8) to 2·1 (2·0-2·6) cases per 100 000 women-years over the next century (89·4% [86·2-90·1] reduction), and to avert 61·0 million (60·5-63·0) cases during this period. Adding twice-lifetime screening reduced the incidence to 0·7 (0·6-1·6) cases per 100 000 women-years (96·7% [91·3-96·7] reduction) and averted an extra 12·1 million (9·5-13·7) cases. Girls-only vaccination was predicted to result in elimination in 60% (58-65) of LMICs based on the threshold of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, in 99% (89-100) of LMICs based on the threshold of ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and in 87% (37-99) of LMICs based on the 85% or greater reduction threshold. When adding twice-lifetime screening, 100% (71-100) of LMICs reached elimination for all three thresholds. In regions in which all countries can achieve cervical cancer elimination with girls-only vaccination, elimination could occur between 2059 and 2102, depending on the threshold and region. Introducing twice-lifetime screening accelerated elimination by 11-31 years. Long-term vaccine protection was required for elimination.

INTERPRETATION

Predictions were consistent across our three models and suggest that high HPV vaccination coverage of girls can lead to cervical cancer elimination in most LMICs by the end of the century. Screening with high uptake will expedite reductions and will be necessary to eliminate cervical cancer in countries with the highest burden.

FUNDING

WHO, UNDP, UN Population Fund, UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Program of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre for Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control.

Human Papillomavirus Research: Where Should We Place Our Bets?

BACKGROUND

Massive strides have been made with respect to primary and secondary prevention of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated disease as a result of prophylactic vaccination and cervical screening based on molecular HPV testing. However, cervical cancer continues to be an important clinical and societal burden. Additionally, other HPV-associated cancers, for which there are no screening programmes, are rising. Finally, the optimal combination of vaccination and screening strategies will require careful thinking. Considering this unprecedented and important time, we were keen to solicit the views of the expert community to determine what they perceived were the key priorities for HPV research. Our objective was to identify consensus and key priorities for HPV-based research through provision of a questionnaire disseminated to a multidisciplinary group of key opinion leaders (KOLs).

SUMMARY

A structured survey composed of 46 HPV research "categories" was sent to 73 KOLs who were invited to "rank" the categories according to priority. The invitees represented clinical and public health disciplines as well as basic scientists. Scores were weighted according to the number of responses. Invitees also had the opportunity to comment on barriers to the research and suggest other research areas that required attention not reflected in the survey. We received 29 responses in total; overall, the 3 highest-ranked categories were "optimal cervical screening in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)," "primary disease prevention in LMICs" and "impact of vaccine on HPV infection and associated disease." "HPV and the microbiome" and "mechanisms of transformation" were the highest-ranked categories with respect to basic research. Consistent barriers to research were around governance on the use of samples and data and funding, particularly in an era of vaccination. Key Messages: Research to support the management of disease in LMICs is clearly perceived as a priority in the international community in addition to other diverse areas which necessitate an improved basic understanding of viral mechanisms and interactions. International, multidisciplinary efforts which articulate the broader HPV research agenda will be important when seeking funding in addition to international endeavours to support the efficient use of existing samples and cohorts to facilitate such research.