Risk-stratified strategies in population screening for colorectal cancer

Risk-stratified screening and colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: A retrospective study from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether risk stratification can optimize the benefits of flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSG) screening.

METHODS

The Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial was conducted from 1993 to 2001 in the United States. A colorectal cancer (CRC) risk stratification tool was developed in the control arm (n = 64,207) from the PLCO cohort and validated in the UK Biobank (n = 270,726). PLCO participants (n = 130,021) were classified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Cumulative incidence and mortality were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between screening and CRC incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

The CRC risk stratification tool was based on age, gender, body mass index, smoking status, family history of CRC, diabetes, regular use of aspirin, and CRC screening history. Compared with the control arm, FSG screening was significantly associated with a reduction in mortality in both the medium-risk (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.63-0.92) and high-risk groups (0.58, 0.46-0.73), but not in the low-risk group (0.85, 0.61-1.19). FSG screening also reduced distal CRC incidence and mortality in the medium-risk and high-risk groups. Furthermore, it was associated with a reduction in incidence (0.74, 0.59-0.92) and mortality (0.59, 0.40-0.87) of proximal colon cancer in the high-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

FSG screening yielded more benefits for the high-risk group than for the low-risk and medium-risk groups, supporting the development of a risk-stratified CRC screening strategy.

Effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening integrating non-genetic and genetic risk: a prospective study based on UK Biobank data

OBJECTIVE

Few studies have evaluated the benefits of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening integrating both non-genetic and genetic risk factors. Here, we aimed to integrate an existing non-genetic risk model (QCancer-10) and a 139-variant polygenic risk score to evaluate the effectiveness of screening on CRC incidence and mortality.

METHODS

We applied the integrated model to calculate 10-year CRC risk for 430,908 participants in the UK Biobank, and divided the participants into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. We calculated the screening-associated hazard ratios (HRs) and absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for CRC incidence and mortality according to risk stratification.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.03 years and 12.60 years, we observed 5,158 CRC cases and 1,487 CRC deaths, respectively. CRC incidence and mortality were significantly lower among screened than non-screened participants in both the intermediate- and high-risk groups [incidence: HR: 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-0.94; 0.81, 0.73-0.90; mortality: 0.75, 0.64-0.87; 0.70, 0.58-0.85], which composed approximately 60% of the study population. The ARRs (95% CI) were 0.17 (0.11-0.24) and 0.43 (0.24-0.61), respectively, for CRC incidence, and 0.08 (0.05-0.11) and 0.24 (0.15-0.33), respectively, for mortality. Screening did not significantly reduce the relative or absolute risk of CRC incidence and mortality in the low-risk group. Further analysis revealed that screening was most effective for men and individuals with distal CRC among the intermediate to high-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

After integrating both genetic and non-genetic factors, our findings provided priority evidence of risk-stratified CRC screening and valuable insights for the rational allocation of health resources.

Racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in colorectal cancer screening in a large organization with universal insurance before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

Israel is regarded as a country with a developed economy and a moderate income inequality index. In this population-based study, we aimed to measure the inequalities in colorectal cancer screening within Clalit Health, an organization with universal insurance, before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

SETTING

Retrospective analysis within Clalit Health Services, Israel.

METHODS

We evaluated the rate of being up to date with screening (having a colonoscopy within 10 years or a fecal occult blood test within 1 year) and the colonoscopy completion rate (having a colonoscopy within 6 months of a positive fecal occult blood test) among subjects aged 50-75 in 2019-2021.

RESULTS

In 2019, out of 918,135 subjects, 61.3% were up to date with screening; high socioeconomic status: 65.9% (referent), medium-socioeconomic status: 60.1% (odds ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.80-0.82), low-socioeconomic status: 59.0% (odds ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.74-0.75); Jews: 61.9% (referent), Arabs: 59.7% (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.90-0.92), Ultraorthodox-Jews: 51.7% (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.75-0.78). Out of 21,308 with a positive fecal occult blood test, the colonoscopy completion rate was 51.8%; high-socioeconomic status: 59.8% (referent), medium-socioeconomic status: 54.1% (odds ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.86), low-socioeconomic status: 45.5% (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.65); Jews: 54.7% (referent), Ultraorthodox-Jews: 51.4% (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.90-0.92), Arabs: 44.7% (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.75-0.78). In 2020-2021, there was a slight drop in the rate of being up to date with screening, while most of the discrepancies were kept or slightly increased with time.

CONCLUSIONS

We report significant inequalities in colorectal cancer screening before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in Israel, despite a declared policy of equality and universal insurance.

Roadmap to improve the organized cancer screening programs - The case of colorectal cancer screening in Montenegro

BACKGROUND

Implementation of organized cancer screening programs comes with many challenges and barriers, which may inhibit the achievement of the screening activities' desired benefits. In this paper we outline a plan for improving the colorectal cancer (CRC) screening system in Montenegro.

METHODS

We formulated a roadmap, which was generally defined as a country-specific strategic plan to improve cancer screening programs. The roadmap development was an iterative, step-by-step process. First, we described the current screening program, then identified and described key barriers, and finally proposed actions to overcome them. Multiple sources of information (e.g., documents, expert opinions) were collected and processed by local and international stakeholders.

RESULTS

The CRC screening program was implemented between 2013-2019 by gradually increasing the invitation of the target population. Key barriers of the implementation were defined: 1) Lack of colonoscopy capacity in the northern part of the country; 2) Inadequate information technology systems; 3) Inadequate public promotion of screening. The defined actions were related to overcoming lack of available resources (e.g., financial, human and technological), to improve the policy environment and the knowledge, and to facilitate information sharing.

CONCLUSION

The collaboration between local stakeholders of CRC screening and researchers experienced in planning and evaluating screening programs resulted in the first comprehensive description of CRC screening in Montenegro, detailed understanding of key barriers that emerged during implementation and a carefully designed list of actions. The implementation of these actions and the evaluation of whether barriers were solved will be captured in the upcoming period by maintaining this collaboration.

Long-term benefits and harms of early colorectal cancer screening in German individuals with familial cancer risk

Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) may benefit from early screening with colonoscopy or immunologic fecal occult blood testing (iFOBT). We systematically evaluated the benefit-harm trade-offs of various screening strategies differing by screening test (colonoscopy or iFOBT), interval (iFOBT: annual/biennial; colonoscopy: 10-yearly) and age at start (30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 years) and end of screening (65, 70 and 75 years) offered to individuals identified with familial CRC risk in Germany. A Markov-state-transition model was developed and used to estimate health benefits (CRC-related deaths avoided, life-years gained [LYG]), potential harms (eg, associated with additional colonoscopies) and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. Both benefits and harms increased with earlier start and shorter intervals of screening. When screening started before age 50, 32-36 CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons were avoided with colonoscopy and 29-34 with iFOBT screening, compared to 29-31 (colonoscopy) and 28-30 (iFOBT) CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons when starting age 50 or older, respectively. For iFOBT screening, the IHBRs expressed as additional colonoscopies per LYG were one (biennial, age 45-65 vs no screening), four (biennial, age 35-65), six (biennial, age 30-70) and 34 (annual, age 30-54; biennial, age 55-75). Corresponding IHBRs for 10-yearly colonoscopy were four (age 55-65), 10 (age 45-65), 15 (age 35-65) and 29 (age 30-70). Offering screening with colonoscopy or iFOBT to individuals with familial CRC risk before age 50 is expected to be beneficial. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, 10-yearly colonoscopy or alternatively biennial iFOBT from age 30 to 70 should be recommended for this target group.

Cancer screening programs in South-east Asia and Western Pacific

BACKGROUND

The burden of cancer can be altered by screening. The field of cancer screening is constantly evolving; from the initiation of program for new cancer types as well as exploring innovative screening strategies (e.g. new screening tests). The aim of this study was to perform a landscape analysis of existing cancer screening programs in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.

METHODS

We conducted an overview of cancer screening in the region with the goal of summarizing current designs of cancer screening programs. First, a selective narrative literature review was used as an exploration to identify countries with organized screening programs. Second, representatives of each country with an organized program were approached and asked to provide relevant information on the organizations of their national or regional cancer screening program.

RESULTS

There was wide variation in the screening strategies offered in the considered region with only eight programs identified as having an organized design. The majority of these programs did not meet all the essential criteria for being organized screening. The greatest variation was observed in the starting and stopping ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Essential criteria of organized screening are missed. Improving organization is crucial to ensure that the beneficial effects of screening are achieved in the long-term. It is strongly recommended to consider a regional cancer screening network.

Factors influencing the acceptability of alcohol drinking for a patient with colorectal cancer

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer is the second deadliest cancer worldwide. One of the risk factors for the development of this type of cancer is alcohol consumption. Patients with colorectal cancer may be stigmatized regarding their cancer and regarding drinking behaviors they may exhibit. This study aimed to analyze community persons' and health professionals' acceptability judgments regarding alcohol drinkers having colorectal cancer.

METHOD

This study relies on an experimental method enabling the identification of variables involved in one's judgment, based on the exhaustive combination of factors yielding several scenarios rated by participants. Scenarios implemented factors possibly influencing participants' perception of a woman character having colorectal cancer. Factors included her drinking habits, post-diagnosis drinking behavior and type of diagnosis/prognosis. The participants were community persons (N' = 132) or health professionals (N" = 126). Data were analyzed using a within-subject factorial ANOVA.

RESULTS

In both samples, the "Post-diagnosis behavior" factor had large effect sizes, with drinking cessation being more acceptable than other drinking behaviors. Another factor, "Drinking habits", had significant influences on participants judgments, as higher drinking was considered less acceptable. A third factor, "Diagnosis" (polyps, early- or late-stage cancer), was taken into account by participants when it interacted with "Drinking habits" and "Post-diagnosis behavior". Indeed, participants considered most acceptable to continue drinking in the case of late-stage cancer, especially in the health professional sample where the acceptability of continuing drinking was almost doubled when the character had advanced- rather than early-cancer.

CONCLUSION

The lesser the drinking behavior, the better the acceptability. However, advanced cancer stage attenuated the poor acceptability of drinking in both samples, as participants' attitudes were more permissive when the patient had advanced cancer.

Faecal haemoglobin: Measurement, applications, and future potential

Faecal hemoglobin concentrations (f-Hb) can be quantitated using faecal immunochemical test for haemoglobin (FIT) analytical systems. FIT are of proven value and widely used in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Several factors affect f-Hb including sex, age, deprivation, geographical region, and FIT system. Thus, FIT data may not be transferable. Women are disadvantaged in programmes using a single f-Hb threshold for all participants, but risk scoring or sex stratified thresholds could be used to minimise this problem. In addition, low but detectable f-Hb, below the threshold, implies future risk of CRC. In several countries, where colonoscopy resources are constrained, FIT are now accepted as of added value in assessment of patients presenting in primary or secondary care with symptoms, although some serious colorectal disease is missed. Elevated f-Hb in the absence of any discernible colorectal lesions is common and has been found in several diseases with a systemic inflammatory component, including circulatory, respiratory, digestive, neuropsychological, blood and endocrine diseases, and others. There is growing evidence for the value of f-Hb in post-polypectomy surveillance, potentially saving costs and colonoscopy. There may be a role for FIT systems which have lower limits of detection than currently available methods. The faecal material remaining in FIT specimen collection devices could be used for further studies, including assessment of the microbiome. The estimation of f-Hb is now a mature investigative tool but further research will undoubtedly expand applications of value.

Implementation of risk stratification within bowel cancer screening: a community jury study exploring public acceptability and communication needs

BACKGROUND

Population-based cancer screening programmes are shifting away from age and/or sex-based screening criteria towards a risk-stratified approach. Any such changes must be acceptable to the public and communicated effectively. We aimed to explore the social and ethical considerations of implementing risk stratification at three different stages of the bowel cancer screening programme and to understand public requirements for communication.

METHODS

We conducted two pairs of community juries, addressing risk stratification for screening eligibility or thresholds for referral to colonoscopy and screening interval. Using screening test results (where applicable), and lifestyle and genetic risk scores were suggested as potential stratification strategies. After being informed about the topic through a series of presentations and discussions including screening principles, ethical considerations and how risk stratification could be incorporated, participants deliberated over the research questions. They then reported their final verdicts on the acceptability of risk-stratified screening and what information should be shared about their preferred screening strategy. Transcripts were analysed using codebook thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Risk stratification of bowel cancer screening was acceptable to the informed public. Using data within the current system (age, sex and screening results) was considered an obvious next step and collecting additional data for lifestyle and/or genetic risk assessment was also preferable to age-based screening. Participants acknowledged benefits to individuals and health services, as well as articulating concerns for people with low cancer risk, potential public misconceptions and additional complexity for the system. The need for clear and effective communication about changes to the screening programme and individual risk feedback was highlighted, including making a distinction between information that should be shared with everyone by default and additional details that are available elsewhere.

CONCLUSIONS

From the perspective of public acceptability, risk stratification using current data could be implemented immediately, ahead of more complex strategies. Collecting additional data for lifestyle and/or genetic risk assessment was also considered acceptable but the practicalities of collecting such data and how the programme would be communicated require careful consideration.

Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Based on Predicted Risk: Protocol for a Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Incidence of and mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC) can be effectively reduced by screening with the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy. Individual risk to develop CRC within 15 years varies from <1% to >15% among people aged 50 to 75 years. Communicating personalized CRC risk and appropriate screening recommendations could improve the risk-benefit balance of screening test allocations and optimize the use of limited colonoscopy resources. However, significant uncertainty exists regarding the feasibility and efficacy of risk-based screening.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to study the effect of communicating individual CRC risk and a risk-based recommendation of the FIT or colonoscopy on participants' choice of screening test. We will also assess the feasibility of a larger clinical trial designed to evaluate the impact of personalized screening on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We will perform a pilot randomized controlled trial among 880 residents aged 50 to 69 years eligible to participate in the organized screening program of the Vaud canton, Switzerland. Participants will be recruited by mail by the Vaud CRC screening program. Primary and secondary outcomes will be self-assessed through questionnaires. The risk score will be calculated using the open-source QCancer calculator that was validated in the United Kingdom. Participants will be stratified into 3 groups-low (<3%), moderate (3% to <6%), and high (≥6%) risk-according to their 15-year CRC risk and randomized within each risk stratum. The intervention group participants will receive a newly designed brochure with their personalized risk and screening recommendations. The control group will receive the usual brochure of the Vaud CRC screening program. Our primary outcome, measured using a self-administered questionnaire, is appropriate screening uptake 6 months after the intervention. Screening will be defined as appropriate if participants at high risk undertake colonoscopy and participants at low risk undertake the FIT. We will also measure the acceptability of the risk score and screening recommendations and the psychological factors influencing screening behavior. We will also assess the feasibility of a full-scale randomized controlled trial.

RESULTS

We expect that a total sample of 880 individuals will allow us to detect a difference of 10% (α=5%) between groups. The main outcome will be analyzed using a 2-tailed chi-squared test. We expect that appropriate screening uptake will be higher in the intervention group. No difference in overall screening uptake is expected.

CONCLUSIONS

We will test the impact of personalized risk information and screening recommendations on participants' choice of screening test in an organized screening program. This study should advance our understanding of the feasibility of large-scale risk-based CRC screening. Our results may provide insights into the optimization of CRC screening by offering screening options with a better risk-benefit balance and optimizing the use of resources.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05357508; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05357508.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/46865.

A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Europe: Have Studies Included Optimal Screening Intensities?

OBJECTIVE

To assess the range of strategies analysed in European cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with respect to the screening intervals, age ranges and test cut-offs used to define positivity, to examine how this might influence what strategies are found to be optimal, and compare them with the current screening policies with a focus on the screening interval.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus for peer-reviewed, model-based CEAs of CRC screening. We included studies on average-risk European populations using the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) or faecal immunochemical test (FIT). We adapted Drummond's ten-point checklist to appraise study quality.

RESULTS

We included 39 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Biennial screening was the most frequently used interval which was analysed in 37 studies. Annual screening was assessed in 13 studies, all of which found it optimally cost-effective. Despite this, 25 of 26 European stool-based programmes use biennial screening. Many CEAs did not vary the age range, but the 14 that did generally found broader ranges optimal. Only 11 studies considered alternative FIT cut-offs, 9 of which found lower cut-offs superior. Conflicts between current policy and CEA evidence are less clear regarding age ranges and cut-offs.

CONCLUSIONS

The existing CEA evidence indicates that the widely adopted biennial frequency of stool-based testing in Europe is suboptimal. It is likely that many more lives could be saved throughout Europe if programmes could be offered with more intensive annual screening.

Integrative deep learning analysis improves colon adenocarcinoma patient stratification at risk for mortality

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancers are the fourth most diagnosed cancer and the second leading cancer in number of deaths. Many clinical variables, pathological features, and genomic signatures are associated with patient risk, but reliable patient stratification in the clinic remains a challenging task. Here we assess how image, clinical, and genomic features can be combined to predict risk.

METHODS

We developed and evaluated integrative deep learning models combining formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) whole slide images (WSIs), clinical variables, and mutation signatures to stratify colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) patients based on their risk of mortality. Our models were trained using a dataset of 108 patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), and were externally validated on newly generated dataset from Wayne State University (WSU) of 123 COAD patients and rectal adenocarcinoma (READ) patients in TCGA (N = 52).

FINDINGS

We first observe that deep learning models trained on FFPE WSIs of TCGA-COAD separate high-risk (OS < 3 years, N = 38) and low-risk (OS > 5 years, N = 25) patients (AUC = 0.81 ± 0.08, 5 year survival p < 0.0001, 5 year relative risk = 1.83 ± 0.04) though such models are less effective at predicting overall survival (OS) for moderate-risk (3 years < OS < 5 years, N = 45) patients (5 year survival p-value = 0.5, 5 year relative risk = 1.05 ± 0.09). We find that our integrative models combining WSIs, clinical variables, and mutation signatures can improve patient stratification for moderate-risk patients (5 year survival p < 0.0001, 5 year relative risk = 1.87 ± 0.07). Our integrative model combining image and clinical variables is also effective on an independent pathology dataset (WSU-COAD, N = 123) generated by our team (5 year survival p < 0.0001, 5 year relative risk = 1.52 ± 0.08), and the TCGA-READ data (5 year survival p < 0.0001, 5 year relative risk = 1.18 ± 0.17). Our multicenter integrative image and clinical model trained on combined TCGA-COAD and WSU-COAD is effective in predicting risk on TCGA-READ (5 year survival p < 0.0001, 5 year relative risk = 1.82 ± 0.13) data. Pathologist review of image-based heatmaps suggests that nuclear size pleomorphism, intense cellularity, and abnormal structures are associated with high-risk, while low-risk regions have more regular and small cells. Quantitative analysis shows high cellularity, high ratios of tumor cells, large tumor nuclei, and low immune infiltration are indicators of high-risk tiles.

INTERPRETATION

The improved stratification of colorectal cancer patients from our computational methods can be beneficial for treatment plans and enrollment of patients in clinical trials.

FUNDING

This study was supported by the National Cancer Institutes (Grant No. R01CA230031 and P30CA034196). The funders had no roles in study design, data collection and analysis or preparation of the manuscript.

Colorectal Cancer Screening in the Middle East: What, Why, Who, When, and How?

The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the Middle East is increasing, especially among those younger than 50 years. Risk factors including obesity, sedentary lifestyle, and dietary changes are associated with the epidemiologic shift and are a result of socioeconomic changes happening in the region. Worldwide, CRC screening is associated with decreased incidence and mortality of CRC, but screening uptake is still low in the Middle East because of cultural barriers and lack of awareness; in addition, most countries do not have national screening programs. Knowledge of CRC screening and participation rates vary among different countries, but overall they are low. Both primary and secondary prevention approaches are needed in the Middle East, and cost-effectiveness is important in choosing screening modalities. Although colonoscopy is considered the most robust screening method, stool-based testing may be an acceptable screening strategy in resource-limited settings, and focusing on high-risk individuals such as those with hereditary CRC might be the most cost-effective strategy. In addition to financial limitations in many countries in the Middle East, human displacement places an extra toll on cancer control strategies in the region.

Factors associated with interval colorectal cancer after negative FIT: Results of two screening rounds in the Dutch FIT-based CRC screening program

The interval colorectal cancer (CRC) rate after negative fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an important quality indicator of CRC screening programs. We analyzed the outcomes of two rounds of the FIT-based CRC screening program in the Netherlands, using data from individuals who participated in FIT-screening from 2014 to 2017. Data of individuals with one prior negative FIT (first round) or two prior negative FITs (first and second round) were included. Outcomes included the incidence of interval CRC in FIT-negative participants (<47 μg Hb/g feces [μg/g]), FIT-sensitivity, and the probability of detecting an interval CRC by fecal hemoglobin concentration (f-Hb). FIT-sensitivity was estimated using the detection method and the proportional incidence method (based on expected CRC incidence). Logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate whether f-Hb affects probability of detecting interval CRC, adjusted for sex- and age-differences. Incidence of interval CRC was 10.4 per 10 000 participants after the first and 9.6 after the second screening round. FIT-sensitivity based on the detection method was 84.4% (95%CI 83.8-85.0) in the first and 73.5% (95% CI 71.8-75.2) in the second screening round. The proportional incidence method resulted in a FIT-sensitivity of 76.4% (95%CI 73.3-79.6) in the first and 79.1% (95%CI 73.7-85.3) in the second screening round. After one negative FIT, participants with f-Hb just below the cut-off (>40-46.9 μg/g) had a higher probability of detecting an interval CRC (OR 16.9; 95%CI: 14.0-20.4) than had participants with unmeasurable f-Hb (0-2.6 μg/g). After two screening rounds, the odds ratio for interval CRC was 12.0 (95%CI: 7.8-17.6) for participants with f-Hb just below the cut-off compared with participants with unmeasurable f-Hb. After both screening rounds, the Dutch CRC screening program had a low incidence of interval CRC and an associated high FIT-sensitivity. Our findings suggest there is a potential for further optimizing CRC screening programs with the use of risk-stratified CRC screening based on prior f-Hb.

Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment and Precision Approaches to Screening: Brave New World or Worlds Apart?

Current colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations take a "one-size-fits-all" approach using age as the major criterion to initiate screening. Precision screening that incorporates factors beyond age to risk stratify individuals could improve on current approaches and optimally use available resources with benefits for patients, providers, and health care systems. Prediction models could identify high-risk groups who would benefit from more intensive screening, while low-risk groups could be recommended less intensive screening incorporating noninvasive screening modalities. In addition to age, prediction models incorporate well-established risk factors such as genetics (eg, family CRC history, germline, and polygenic risk scores), lifestyle (eg, smoking, alcohol, diet, and physical inactivity), sex, and race and ethnicity among others. Although several risk prediction models have been validated, few have been systematically studied for risk-adapted population CRC screening. In order to envisage clinical implementation of precision screening in the future, it will be critical to develop reliable and accurate prediction models that apply to all individuals in a population; prospectively study risk-adapted CRC screening on the population level; garner acceptance from patients and providers; and assess feasibility, resources, cost, and cost-effectiveness of these new paradigms. This review evaluates the current state of risk prediction modeling and provides a roadmap for future implementation of precision CRC screening.

Personalized colorectal cancer screening: study protocol of a mixed-methods study on the effectiveness of tailored intervals based on prior f-Hb concentration in a fit-based colorectal cancer screening program (PERFECT-FIT)

BACKGROUND

In 2014, the national population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program was implemented in the Netherlands. Biennial fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) for hemoglobin (Hb) is used at a cut-off of 47 µg Hb per gram feces. The CRC screening program successfully started, with high participation rates and yield of screening. Now that the program has reached a steady state, there is potential to further optimize the program. Previous studies showed that prior fecal Hb (f-Hb) concentrations just below the FIT cut-off are associated with a higher risk for detection of advanced neoplasia (AN) at subsequent screening rounds. We aim to achieve a better balance between the harms and benefits of CRC screening by offering participants tailored invitation intervals based on prior f-Hb concentrations after negative FIT.

METHODS

This mixed-methods study will be performed within the Dutch national CRC screening program and will consist of: (1) a randomized controlled trial (RCT), (2) focus group studies, and (3) decision modelling. The primary outcome is the yield of AN per screened individual in personalized screening vs. uniform screening. Secondary outcomes are perspectives on, acceptability of and adherence to personalized screening, as well as long-term outcomes of personalized vs. uniform screening. The RCT will include 20,000 participants of the Dutch CRC screening program; 10,000 in the intervention and 10,000 in the control arm. The intervention arm will receive a personalized screening interval based on the prior f-Hb concentration (1, 2 or 3 years). The control arm will receive a screening interval according to current practice (2 years). The focus group studies are designed to understand individuals' perspectives on and acceptability of personalized CRC screening. Results of the RCT will be incorporated into the MISCAN-Colon model to determine long-term benefits, harms, and costs of personalized vs. uniform CRC screening.

DISCUSSION

The aim of this study is to evaluate the yield, feasibility, acceptability and (cost-) effectiveness of personalized CRC screening through tailored invitation intervals based on prior f-Hb concentrations. This knowledge may be of guidance for health policy makers and may provide evidence for implementing personalized CRC screening in The Netherlands and/or other countries using FIT as screening modality.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05423886, June 21, 2022, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05423886.

Cost-effectiveness of risk-tailored screening strategy for colorectal cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Though one-size-fits-all age-based screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is effective in reducing the incidence and mortality, the evidence regarding on personized screening based on individual risk factors has been growing. The study aimed to perform a systematic review to synthesize economic evidence of risk-tailored CRC screening strategies.

METHODS

This systematic review was conducted in EMBASE, Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane Library, Econlit, and National Institute for Health Research Economic Evaluation Database from inception to June 30, 2021. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of cost per life year or quality-adjusted life year gained for the risk-tailored screening compared with no screening or uniform screening. A strategy was cost-effective with less cost and equal or more effectiveness than the comparator along with lower ICER than the willingness-to-pay threshold.

RESULTS

Our review finally comprised seven studies. Five studies reported the results of comparisons of risk-tailored CRC screening with no screening, and supported that risk-tailored screening was cost-effective. All of seven studies reported the ICERs of risk-tailored screening and age-based screening. Disparities in the discrimination of risk-prediction tool, accuracy of adopted techniques, uptake rate of screening and cost estimation impacted the cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies on the economic evaluation of risk-tailored CRC screening are limited, and current evidence is not sufficient to support the replacement of risk-tailored screening for traditional age-based screening.

A scoping review of risk-stratified bowel screening: current evidence, future directions

PURPOSE

In this scoping review, we examined the international literature on risk-stratified bowel screening to develop recommendations for future research, practice and policy.

METHODS

Six electronic databases were searched from inception to 18 October 2021: Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Forward and backwards citation searches were also undertaken. All relevant literature were included.

RESULTS

After de-deduplication, 3,629 records remained. 3,416 were excluded at the title/abstract screening stage. A further 111 were excluded at full-text screening stage. In total, 102 unique studies were included. Results showed that risk-stratified bowel screening programmes can potentially improve diagnostic performance, but there is a lack of information on longer-term outcomes. Risk models do appear to show promise in refining existing risk stratification guidelines but most were not externally validated and less than half achieved good discriminatory power. Risk assessment tools in primary care have the potential for high levels of acceptability and uptake, and therefore, could form an important component of future risk-stratified bowel screening programmes, but sometimes the screening recommendations were not adhered to by the patient or healthcare provider. The review identified important knowledge gaps, most notably in the area of organisation of screening services due to few pilots, and what risk stratification might mean for inequalities.

CONCLUSION

We recommend that future research focuses on what organisational challenges risk-stratified bowel screening may face and a consideration of inequalities in any changes to organised bowel screening programmes.