Validation of population-level HIV-1 incidence estimation by cross-sectional incidence assays in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

Establishment, Implementation, Initial Outcomes, and Lessons Learned from Recent HIV Infection Surveillance Using a Rapid Test for Recent Infection Among Persons Newly Diagnosed With HIV in Thailand: Implementation Study

Background

A recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) incorporating case surveillance (CS) with the rapid test for recent HIV infection (RTRI) was integrated into HIV testing services in Thailand as a small-scale pilot project in October 2020.

Objective

We aimed to describe the lessons learned and initial outcomes obtained after the establishment of the nationwide recent HIV infection surveillance project from April through August 2022.

Methods

We conducted desk reviews, developed a surveillance protocol and manual, selected sites, trained staff, implemented surveillance, and analyzed outcomes. Remnant blood specimens of consenting newly diagnosed individuals were tested using the Asanté HIV-1 Rapid Recency Assay. The duration of HIV infection was classified as RTRI-recent or RTRI-long-term. Individuals testing RTRI-recent with CD4 counts <200 cells/mm3 or those having opportunistic infections were classified as RITA-CS-long-term. Individuals testing RTRI-recent with CD4 counts >200 cells/mm3, no opportunistic infections, and not on antiretroviral treatment were classified as RITA-CS-recent.

Results

Two hundred and one hospitals in 14 high-burden HIV provinces participated in the surveillance. Of these, 69 reported ≥1 HIV diagnosis during the surveillance period. Of 1053 newly diagnosed cases, 64 (6.1%) were classified as RITA-CS-recent. On multivariate analysis, self-reporting as transgender women (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 7.41, 95% CI 1.59-34.53) and men who have sex with men (AOR 2.59, 95% CI 1.02-6.56) compared to heterosexual men, and students compared to office workers or employers (AOR 3.76, 95% CI 1.25-11.35) were associated with RITA-CS-recent infection. The proper selection of surveillance sites, utilizing existing surveillance tools and systems, and conducting frequent follow-up and supervision visits were the most commonly cited lessons learned to inform the next surveillance phase.

Conclusions

Recent HIV infection surveillance can provide an understanding of current epidemiologic trends to inform HIV prevention interventions to interrupt ongoing or recent HIV transmission. The key success factors of the HIV recent infection surveillance in Thailand include a thorough review of the existing HIV testing service delivery system, a streamlined workflow, strong laboratory and health services, and regular communication between sites and the Provincial Health Offices.

An enhanced cross-sectional HIV incidence estimator that incorporates prior HIV test results

Incidence estimation of HIV infection can be performed using recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) results from a cross-sectional sample. This allows practitioners to understand population trends in the HIV epidemic without having to perform longitudinal follow-up on a cohort of individuals. The utility of the approach is limited by its precision, driven by the (low) sensitivity of the RITA at identifying recent infection. By utilizing results of previous HIV tests that individuals may have taken, we consider an enhanced RITA with increased sensitivity (and specificity). We use it to propose an enhanced estimator for incidence estimation. We prove the theoretical properties of the enhanced estimator and illustrate its numerical performance in simulation studies. We apply the estimator to data from a cluster-randomized trial to study the effect of community-level HIV interventions on HIV incidence. We demonstrate that the enhanced estimator provides a more precise estimate of HIV incidence compared to the standard estimator.

Assessing the reliability of the CD4 depletion model in the presence of Ending the HIV Epidemic initiatives

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimates of HIV incidence are necessary to monitor progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative targets (90% decline by 2030). U.S. incidence estimates are derived from a CD4 depletion model (CD4 model). We performed simulation-based analyses to investigate the ability of this model to estimate HIV incidence when implementing EHE interventions that have the potential to shorten the duration between HIV infection and diagnosis (diagnosis delay).

METHODS

Our simulation study evaluates the impact of three parameters on the accuracy of incidence estimates derived from the CD4 model: rate of HIV incidence decline, length of diagnosis delay, and sensitivity of using CD4 + cell counts to identify new infections (recency error). We model HIV incidence and diagnoses after the implementation of a theoretical prevention intervention and compare HIV incidence estimates derived from the CD4 model to simulated incidence.

RESULTS

Theoretical interventions that shortened the diagnosis delay (10-50%) result in overestimation of HIV incidence by the CD4 model (10-92%) in the first year and by more than 10% for the first 6 years after implementation of the intervention. Changes in the rate of HIV incidence decline and the presence of recency error had minimal impact on the accuracy of incidence estimates derived from the CD4 model.

CONCLUSION

In the setting of EHE interventions to identify persons with HIV earlier during infection, the CD4 model overestimates HIV incidence. Alternative methods to estimate incidence based on objective measures of incidence are needed to assess and monitor EHE interventions.

Facilitating Next-Generation Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Clinical Trials Using HIV Recent Infection Assays: A Consensus Statement from the Forum HIV Prevention Trial Design Project

Standard-of-care HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly efficacious, but uptake of and persistence on a daily oral pill is low in many settings. Evaluation of alternate PrEP products will require innovation to avoid the unpractically large sample sizes in noninferiority trials. We propose estimating HIV incidence in people not on PrEP as an external counterfactual to which on-PrEP incidence in trial subjects can be compared. HIV recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs), such as the limiting antigen avidity assay plus viral load used on specimens from untreated HIV positive people identified during screening, is one possible approach. Its feasibility is partly dependent on the sample size needed to ensure adequate power, which is impacted by RITA performance, the number of recent infections identified, the expected efficacy of the intervention, and other factors. Screening sample sizes to support detection of an 80% reduction in incidence for 3 key populations are more modest, and comparable to the number of participants in recent phase III PrEP trials. Sample sizes would be significantly larger in populations with lower incidence, where the false recency rate is higher or if PrEP efficacy is expected to be lower. Our proposed counterfactual approach appears to be feasible, offers high statistical power, and is nearly contemporaneous with the on-PrEP population. It will be important to monitor the performance of this approach during new product development for HIV prevention. If successful, it could be a model for preventive HIV vaccines and prevention of other infectious diseases.

An Analysis of Global Orthopedic Organizations Through the Lens of the Four Pillars of Global Surgery

Introduction The mortality of orthopedic trauma is very high, however, a large proportion is considered preventable. Global orthopedics was historically centered around the direct delivery of nonsurgical and surgical medical care. There has been an evolution towards increased sustainability. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accomplishment of the four pillars of global surgery by five commonly referenced orthopedic global surgery organizations. Methods This institutional review board (IRB)-exempt cross-sectional data studied Global Orthopedic Alliance, Operation Rainbow, the Institute for Global Orthopaedics and Traumatology (IGOT), One World Surgery (OWS), and the Canadian Orthopedic Association for Global Surgery (COAGS) through the lens of the four pillars of global surgery: knowledge exchange, advocacy, research initiative, surgical education. The knowledge exchange pillar was examined through the three most popular online knowledge exchange platforms in orthopedics. The advocacy pillar was examined through each organization's individually created website. The research initiative was examined through a comprehensive literature search. The surgical education pillar was examined through resident-level educational resources. The data was summarized descriptively. Results A total of four organizations demonstrated activity within the pillar of knowledge exchange. A total of three organizations demonstrated activity with the pillar of advocacy. A total of three groups demonstrated activity within the pillar of the research initiative. A total of two groups had activity within the pillar of surgical education. Conclusions The landscape regarding global orthopedic surgery programs has evolved greatly to encompass the four pillars of global surgery. Within the past 10 years, there has been increased emphasis on the knowledge exchange and research initiative pillars. Surgical education remains the pillar with the least emphasis. As global orthopedic surgery programs continue to evolve, increasing emphasis should be placed on all four of these pillars to increase sustainability.

Evaluation of multi-assay algorithms for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation in settings with universal antiretroviral treatment

BACKGROUND

Multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) are used to estimate population-level HIV incidence and identify individuals with recent infection. Many MAAs use low viral load (VL) as a biomarker for long-term infection. This could impact incidence estimates in settings with high rates of early HIV treatment initiation. We evaluated the performance of two MAAs that do not include VL.

METHODS

Samples were collected from 219 seroconverters (infected < 1 year) and 4376 non-seroconverters (infected > 1 year) in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial; 28.8% of seroconverter samples and 73.2% of non-seroconverter samples had VLs ≤ 400 copies/mL. Samples were tested with the Limiting Antigen Avidity assay (LAg) and JHU BioRad-Avidity assays. Antibody reactivity to two HIV peptides was measured using the MSD U-PLEX assay. Two MAAs were evaluated that do not include VL: a MAA that includes the LAg-Avidity assay and BioRad-Avidity assay (LAg + BR) and a MAA that includes the LAg-Avidity assay and two peptide biomarkers (LAg + PepPair). Performance of these MAAs was compared to a widely used MAA that includes LAg and VL (LAg + VL).

RESULTS

The incidence estimate for LAg + VL (1.29%, 95% CI: 0.97-1.62) was close to the observed longitudinal incidence (1.34% 95% CI: 1.17-1.53). The incidence estimates for the other two MAAs were higher (LAg + BR: 2.56%, 95% CI 2.01-3.11; LAg + PepPair: 2.84%, 95% CI: 1.36-4.32). LAg + BR and LAg + PepPair also misclassified more individuals infected > 2 years as recently infected than LAg + VL (1.2% [42/3483 and 1.5% [51/3483], respectively, vs. 0.2% [6/3483]). LAg + BR classified more seroconverters as recently infected than LAg + VL or LAg + PepPair (80 vs. 58 and 50, respectively) and identified ~ 25% of virally suppressed seroconverters as recently infected.

CONCLUSIONS

The LAg + VL MAA produced a cross-sectional incidence estimate that was closer to the longitudinal estimate than two MAAs that did not include VL. The LAg + BR MAA classified the greatest number of individual seroconverters as recently infected but had a higher false recent rate.

Deep learning and social network analysis elucidate drivers of HIV transmission in a high-incidence cohort of people who inject drugs

Globally, people who inject drugs (PWID) experience some of the fastest-growing HIV epidemics. Network-based approaches represent a powerful tool for understanding and combating these epidemics; however, detailed social network studies are limited and pose analytical challenges. We collected longitudinal social (injection partners) and spatial (injection venues) network information from 2512 PWID in New Delhi, India. We leveraged network analysis and graph neural networks (GNNs) to uncover factors associated with HIV transmission and identify optimal intervention delivery points. Longitudinal HIV incidence was 21.3 per 100 person-years. Overlapping community detection using GNNs revealed seven communities, with HIV incidence concentrated within one community. The injection venue most strongly associated with incidence was found to overlap six of the seven communities, suggesting that an intervention deployed at this one location could reach the majority of the sample. These findings highlight the utility of network analysis and deep learning in HIV program design.

Antiretroviral Drug Resistance in HIV Sequences From People Who Inject Drugs and Men Who Have Sex With Men Across 21 Cities in India

Background

Drug resistance testing is limited in public-sector human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in India, and there are few systematic samplings for prevalent drug resistance mutations (DRMs), particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID).

Methods

We conducted genotypic resistance testing on 915 HIV sequences sampled from viremic self-reported antiretroviral therapy (ART) experienced and naive PWID and MSM recruited from 21 cities across India in 2016-2017. We analyzed factors associated with resistance using logistic regression and evaluated evidence for transmitted resistance using phylogenetic analyses.

Results

Of the 915 participants sequenced, median age was 31, 436 were MSM, and 191 were ART experienced. Overall, 62.8% of ART-experienced participants and 14.4% of ART-naive participants were found to have low-level resistance or higher to 1 or more classes of drugs. Prevalence of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate resistance was 25.7% in ART-experienced participants and 1.11% in ART-naive participants. The highest proportion of drug resistance was seen across nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and resistance was significantly more common among MSM participants than PWID. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that 54.6% of ART-naive participants with resistance who clustered had shared DRMs, suggesting transmitted resistance may have occurred.

Conclusions

Patients experiencing virologic failure on first-line therapy switched blindly to tenofovir/lamivudine/dolutegravir may effectively be receiving dolutegravir monotherapy due to resistance to tenofovir and lamivudine. While dolutegravir is expected to have full activity in the majority of patients in India, follow-up is needed to understand how resistance may affect long-term outcomes.

Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Other Surveillance Use Cases: Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

HIV assays designed to detect recent infection, also known as "recency assays," are often used to estimate HIV incidence in a specific country, region, or subpopulation, alone or as part of recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs). Recently, many countries and organizations have become interested in using recency assays within case surveillance systems and routine HIV testing services to measure other indicators beyond incidence, generally referred to as "non-incidence surveillance use cases."

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to identify published evidence that can be used to validate methodological approaches to recency-based incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases. The evidence identified through this review will be used in the forthcoming technical guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) on the use of HIV recency assays for identification of epidemic trends, whether for HIV incidence estimation or non-incidence indicators of recency.

METHODS

To identify the best methodological and field implementation practices for the use of recency assays to estimate HIV incidence and trends in recent infections for specific populations or geographic areas, we conducted a systematic review of the literature to (1) understand the use of recency testing for surveillance in programmatic and laboratory settings, (2) review methodologies for implementing recency testing for both incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases, and (3) assess the field performance characteristics of commercially available recency assays.

RESULTS

Among the 167 documents included in the final review, 91 (54.5%) focused on assay or algorithm performance or methodological descriptions, with high-quality evidence of accurate age- and sex-disaggregated HIV incidence estimation at national or regional levels in general population settings, but not at finer geographic levels for prevention prioritization. The remaining 76 (45.5%) described the field use of incidence assays including field-derived incidence (n=45), non-incidence (n=25), and both incidence and non-incidence use cases (n=6). The field use of incidence assays included integrating RITAs into routine surveillance and assisting with molecular genetic analyses, but evidence was generally weaker or only reported on what was done, without validation data or findings related to effectiveness of using non-incidence indicators calculated through the use of recency assays as a proxy for HIV incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV recency assays have been widely validated for estimating HIV incidence in age- and sex-specific populations at national and subnational regional levels; however, there is a lack of evidence validating the accuracy and effectiveness of using recency assays to identify epidemic trends in non-incidence surveillance use cases. More research is needed to validate the use of recency assays within HIV testing services, to ensure findings can be accurately interpreted to guide prioritization of public health programming.