A significant predictor of in-hospital and long-term mortality and progression in COVID-19 patients: The end-stage liver disease (MELD) score model

Validation of prognostic scores for predicting acute liver failure and in-hospital death in patients with dengue-induced severe hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute liver failure (ALF) in dengue is rare but fatal. Early identification of patients who are at risk of ALF is the key strategy to improve survival.

AIM

To validate prognostic scores for predicting ALF and in-hospital mortality in dengue-induced severe hepatitis (DISH).

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 2532 dengue patients over a period of 16 years (2007-2022). Patients with DISH, defined as transaminases > 10 times the normal reference level and DISH with subsequent ALF, were included. Univariate regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with outcomes. Youden's index in conjunction with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine optimal cut-off values for prognostic scores in predicting ALF and in-hospital death. Area under the ROC (AUROC) curve values were compared using paired data nonparametric ROC curve estimation.

RESULTS

Of 193 DISH patients, 20 developed ALF (0.79%), with a mortality rate of 60.0%. International normalized ratio, bilirubin, albumin, and creatinine were independent predictors associated with ALF and death. Prognostic scores showed excellent performance: Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 15 predicted ALF (AUROC 0.917, sensitivity 90.0%, specificity 88.4%) and ≥ 18 predicted death (AUROC 0.823, sensitivity 86.9%, specificity 89.1%); easy albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score ≥ -30 predicted ALF and death (ALF: AUROC 0.835, sensitivity80.0%, specificity 72.2%; death: AUROC 0.808, sensitivity 76.9%, specificity 69.3%); ALBI score ≥ -2 predicted ALF and death (ALF: AUROC 0.806, sensitivity 80.0%, specificity 77.4%; death: AUROC 0.799, sensitivity 76.9%, specificity 74.3%). Platelet-ALBI score also showed good performance in predicting ALF and death (AUROC = 0.786 and 0.699, respectively). MELD and EZ-ALBI scores had similar performance in predicting ALF (Z = 1.688, P = 0.091) and death (Z = 0.322, P = 0.747).

CONCLUSION

MELD score is the best predictor of ALF and death in DISH patients. EZ-ALBI score, a simpler yet effective score, shows promise as an alternative prognostic tool in dengue patients.

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Score Predicting Mortality Due to SARS-CoV-2 in Mexican Patients

Background/Objectives: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) can cause liver injury and a deterioration of hepatic function. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is a good predictor for poor prognosis of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States, Egypt and Turkey. Nevertheless, the best cut-off value for the MELD score to predict mortality in the Mexican population has yet to be established. Methods: A total of 234 patients with COVID-19 were studied in a tertiary-level hospital. Patients were stratified into survivors (n = 139) and non-survivors (n = 95). Receiver operating characteristic curves, Cox proportional hazard models, Kaplan-Meier method, and Bonferroni corrections were performed to identify the predictors of COVID-19 mortality. Results: MELD score had an area under the curve of 0.62 (95% CI: 0.56-0.68; p = 0.0009), sensitivity = 53.68%, and specificity = 73.38%. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis suggested that the leukocytes > 10.6, neutrophils > 8.42, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) > 8.69, systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) > 1809.21, MELD score > 9, and leukocyte glucose index (LGI) > 2.41 were predictors for mortality. However, the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model revealed that only the MELD score >9 (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-2.8; Pcorrected = 0.03) was an independent predictor for mortality of COVID-19. Conclusions: Although the MELD score is used for liver transplantation, we suggest that a MELD score >9 could be an accurate predictor for COVID-19 mortality at admission to ICU requiring mechanical ventilation.

CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND OUTCOMES OF PATIENTS WITH SEVERE COVID-19 AND CIRRHOSIS OR LIVER TRANSPLANT IN A BRAZILIAN QUATERNARY CENTER

BACKGROUND

Specific associations between liver cirrhosis and liver transplant with poorer outcomes in COVID-19 are still not completely clear.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with severe COVID-19 and cirrhosis or liver transplant in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was conducted in a quaternary hospital. Patients with COVID-19 and liver cirrhosis or liver transplant were selected. The clinical and demographic characteristics, as well as the outcomes, were assessed using electronic records.

RESULTS

A total of 46 patients with COVID-19 and liver condition were included in the study. Patients with liver cirrhosis had significantly more endotracheal intubation and a higher relative risk of death than liver transplant recipients. Patients with higher MELD-Na scores had increased death rates and lower survival probability and survival time.

CONCLUSION

Patients with liver cirrhosis, especially those with higher MELD-Na scores, had poorer outcomes in COVID-19. Liver transplant recipients do not seem to be linked to poorer COVID-19 outcomes.

Cardiac Parameters Better Predict ICU Admission and Short-Term Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19

Background COVID-19 is a multisystemic disease that affects many organs, and the use of some parameters is recommended both during hospitalization and follow-up. In this study, we investigated the relationship between blood (liver and kidney function tests, lactate, and D-dimer), infection (C-reactive protein (CRP), lymphocyte count, ferritin, and albumin), and cardiac (creatine kinase-myocardial band (CK-MB), troponin, and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP)) parameters with intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality. Materials and methods Patients hospitalized in Erzurum City Hospital with the diagnosis of COVID-19 between April 2020 and November 2022 were included in this retrospective study. The patient's files and electronic media records were retrospectively reviewed, and the patient's anamnesis, physical examination, clinical findings, biochemical parameters, and treatment methods were recorded. The ICU needs of the patients and the treatment processes in intensive care were found in the in-hospital records. The hospital records and six-month mortality data were obtained retrospectively with the necessary permissions. Thus, blood parameters and their relation to each other in terms of prognosis were evaluated in determining the six-month mortality rates of the patients and estimating the need for ICU. Results A total of 5100 patients were included in the study. The mean age of patients with mortality was 74.2 ± 11.2 and that without mortality was 59.9 ± 15.7 (p < 0.001). In the mortality (+) group, 61.5% of patients were male, and in the mortality (-) group, 47.4% of the patients were male (p < 0.001). The mean age of patients with ICU admission was 69.6 ± 13.6 and without ICU admission was 60.3 ± 15.9 years (p < 0.001). In the ICU admission (+) group, 60.5% of patients were male; and in the ICU admission (-) group, 47.2% of patients were male (p < 0.001). Death and ICU admission were observed more frequently in elderly and male patients (p < 0.001 for both mortality and ICU admission). Blood parameters were evaluated both in the mortality and ICU groups, and organ function tests, blood count parameters, inflammatory markers, and cardiac parameters were significantly associated with poor outcomes. Cox regression analysis showed that lactate, albumin, Ln(troponin), and Ln(BNP) were independent predictors of mortality and ICU admission. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis showed that Ln(troponin) and Ln(BNP) levels predicted the development of mortality and ICU admission better than other parameters. Discussion COVID-19 can cause problems in different systems as a result of an inflammatory response, secreted cytokines, hypercoagulability, and direct tissue damage. When treating patients, a more appropriate approach is to evaluate different parameters together rather than focusing on a single parameter and deciding accordingly. However, evaluating alterations in many parameters in a disease that affects many systems is difficult and increases the risk of mistakes. Although each blood parameter separately is important, it was observed that the cardiac parameters troponin I and BNP have better predictive values than others in predicting the course and prognosis of COVID-19. Conclusion Blood parameters are used in COVID-19 diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up. Although it is not primarily a cardiac disease, cardiac markers can provide better results in showing the course and prognosis of COVID-19.

COVID-19 and liver injury: Pathophysiology, risk factors, outcome and management in special populations

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 is an ongoing health concern. In addition to affecting the respiratory system, COVID-19 can potentially damage other systems in the body, leading to extra-pulmonary manifestations. Hepatic manifestations are among the common consequences of COVID-19. Although the precise mechanism of liver injury is still questionable, several mechanisms have been hypothesized, including direct viral effect, cytokine storm, hypoxic-ischemic injury, hypoxia-reperfusion injury, ferroptosis, and hepatotoxic medications. Risk factors of COVID-19-induced liver injury include severe COVID-19 infection, male gender, advanced age, obesity, and underlying diseases. The presentations of liver involvement comprise abnormalities in liver enzymes and radiologic findings, which can be utilized to predict the prognosis. Increased gamma-glutamyltransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase levels with hypoalbuminemia can indicate severe liver injury and anticipate the need for intensive care units’ hospitalization. In imaging, a lower liver-to-spleen ratio and liver computed tomography attenuation may indicate a more severe illness. Furthermore, chronic liver disease patients are at a higher risk for severe disease and death from COVID-19. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease had the highest risk of advanced COVID-19 disease and death, followed by metabolic-associated fatty liver disease and cirrhosis. In addition to COVID-19-induced liver injury, the pandemic has also altered the epidemiology and pattern of some hepatic diseases, such as alcoholic liver disease and hepatitis B. Therefore, it warrants special vigilance and awareness by healthcare professionals to screen and treat COVID-19-associated liver injury accordingly.

Alcohol use disorder and liver injury related to the COVID-19 pandemic

Alcohol use disorder is a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon that can be studied from several points of view by focusing on its different components. Alcohol is a hepatotoxin whose metabolism creates profound alterations within the hepatocyte. The liver is the central organ in the metabolism of alcohol, a process that also involves other organs and tissues such as the brain, heart and muscles, but the most relevant organ is the liver. The anatomopathological alterations in the liver associated with the prolonged use of alcohol range from the simple accumulation of neutral fats in the hepatocytes, to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Alcohol abuse frequently leads to liver disease such as steatosis, steatohepatitis, fibrosis, cirrhosis, and tumors. Following the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there was an increase in alcohol consumption, probably linked to the months of lockdown and smart working. It is known that social isolation leads to a considerable increase in stress, and it is also recognized that high levels of stress can result in an increase in alcohol intake. Cirrhotic patients or subjects with liver cancer are immunocompromised, so they may be more exposed to COVID-19 infection with a worse prognosis. This review focuses on the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic has made the emergence of alcohol-induced liver damage a major medical and social problem.