Half‐Century Winter Duck Abundance and Temperature Trends in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways

Long-term changes in autumn-winter harvest distributions vary among duck species, months, and subpopulations

Our aim was to describe shifts in autumn and winter harvest distributions of three species of dabbling ducks (blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) in the Central and Mississippi flyways of North America during 1960-2019. We measured shifts in band recovery distributions corrected for changes in hunting season dates and zones by using kernel density estimators to calculate 10 distributional metrics. We then assessed interannual and intraspecific variation by comparing species-specific changes in distributional metrics for 4 months (October-January) and three geographically based subpopulations. During 1960-2019, band recovery distributions shifted west- and southwards (blue-winged teal) or east- and northwards (mallard and northern pintail) by one hundred to several hundred kilometers. For all three species, the broad (95% isopleth) and core distributions (50% isopleth) showed widespread decreases in overlap and increases in relative area compared to a 1960-1979 baseline period. Shifts in band recovery distributions varied by month, with southward shifts for blue-winged teal most pronounced in October and northward shifts for mallard and northern pintail greatest during December and January. Finally, distributional metric response varied considerably among mallard subpopulations, including 2-4-fold differences in longitude, latitude, and overlap, whereas differences among subpopulations were minimal for blue-winged teal and northern pintail. Our findings support the popular notion that winter (December-January) distributions of duck species have shifted north; however, the extent and direction of distributional changes vary among species and subpopulations. Long-term distributional changes are therefore complex and summarizing shifts across species, months, or subpopulations could mask underlying finer-scale patterns that are important to habitat conservation and population management. A detailed understanding of how species distributions have changed over time will help quantify important drivers of species occurrence, identify habitat management options, and could inform decisions on where to focus conservation or restoration efforts.

Marginal value analysis reveals shifting importance of migration habitat for waterfowl under a changing climate

Migratory waterfowl are an important resource for consumptive and non-consumptive users alike and provide tremendous economic value in North America. These birds rely on a complex matrix of public and private land for forage and roosting during migration and wintering periods, and substantial conservation effort focuses on increasing the amount and quality of target habitat. Yet, the value of habitat is a function not only of a site's resources but also of its geographic position and weather. To quantify this value, we used a continental-scale energetics-based model of daily dabbling duck movement to assess the marginal value of lands across the contiguous United States during the non-breeding period (September to May). We examined effects of eliminating each habitat node (32 × 32 km) in both a particularly cold and a particularly warm winter, asking which nodes had the largest effect on survival. The marginal value of habitat nodes for migrating dabbling ducks was a function of forage and roosting habitat but, more importantly, of geography (especially latitude and region). Irrespective of weather, nodes in the Southeast, central East Coast, and California made the largest positive contributions to survival. Conversely, nodes in the Midwest, Northeast, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest had consistent negative effects. Effects (positive and negative) of more northerly nodes occurred in late fall or early spring when climate was often severe and was most variable. Importance and effects of many nodes varied considerably between a cold and a warm winter. Much of the Midwest and central Great Plains benefited duck survival in a warm winter, and projected future warming may improve the value of lands in these regions, including many National Wildlife Refuges, for migrating dabbling ducks. Our results highlight the geographic variability in habitat value, as well as shifts that may occur in these values due to climate change.

Factors influencing autumn-winter movements of midcontinent Mallards and consequences for harvest and habitat management

Annual phenology and distributions of migratory wildlife have been noticeably influenced by climate change, leading to concerns about sustainable populations. Recent studies exploring conditions influencing autumn migration departure have provided conflicting insights regarding factors influencing the movements of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), a popular game species. We determined factors affecting timing and magnitude of long-distance movements of 97 juvenile Mallards during autumn-winter across the midcontinent of North America marked with implanted transmitters in North and South Dakota, 2018-2019. Factors influencing variation in movement timing, along with direction and magnitudes, depended on type of movement (i.e., regional [25-310 km], initial migration, or subsequent migration movements [>310 km]). Photoperiod influenced probability of initiating all movements, although the effect was most influential for regional movements. Minimum temperature most influenced initial migration events (probability of movement increased 29% for each 1°C decrease); favorable winds also increased likelihood of initial migration events. Probability of subsequent migration events increased 80% for each 1 cm increase in depth of snow. Subsequent migration movements also were 2.0 times more likely to occur on weekend days, indicating disturbance from humans may influence movements. Migration distances increased 166 km for each 1°C reduction in minimum temperature. We also observed markedly different autumn-winter distributions of marked birds between years. Median locations during autumn-winter 2018-2019 were ~250 km farther north and ~300 km farther west during mid-December-January compared to the same time in 2019-2020. Concurrently, harvest rates for marked females and males were 10% and 26% during autumn-winter 2018-2019 and 26% and 31% during autumn-winter 2019-2020. Climate-related changes may result in increasingly variable autumn-winter distributions, with implications for wildlife recreationalists, conservation planners, and harvest managers.

Citizen science reveals waterfowl responses to extreme winter weather

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs) which may be especially detrimental during late-winter when many species are surviving on scarce resources. However, monitoring animal populations relative to ECEs is logistically challenging. Crowd-sourced datasets may provide opportunity to monitor species' responses to short-term chance phenomena such as ECEs. We used 14 years of eBird-a global citizen science initiative-to examine distribution changes for seven wintering waterfowl species across North America in response to recent extreme winter polar vortex disruptions. To validate inferences from eBird, we compared eBird distribution changes against locational data from 362 GPS-tagged Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the Mississippi Flyway. Distributional shifts between eBird and GPS-tagged Mallards were similar following an ECE in February 2021. In general, the ECE affected continental waterfowl population distributions; however, responses were variable across species and flyways. Waterfowl distributions tended to stay near wintering latitudes or moved north at lesser distances compared with non-ECE years, suggesting preparedness for spring migration was a stronger "pull" than extreme weather was a "push" pressure. Surprisingly, larger-bodied waterfowl with grubbing foraging strategies (i.e., geese) delayed their northward range shift during ECE years, whereas smaller-bodied ducks were less affected. Lastly, wetland obligate species shifted southward during ECE years. Collectively, these results suggest specialized foraging strategies likely related to resource limitations, but not body size, necessitate movement from extreme late-winter weather in waterfowl. Our results demonstrate eBird's potential to monitor population-level effects of weather events, especially severe ECEs. eBird and other crowd-sourced datasets can be valuable to identify species which are adaptable or vulnerable to ECEs and thus, begin to inform conservation policy and management to combat negative effects of global climate change.

Changes in waterfowl migration phenologies in central North America: Implications for future waterfowl conservation

Globally, migration phenologies of numerous avian species have shifted over the past half-century. Despite North American waterfowl being well researched, published data on shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies remain scarce. Understanding shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies along with potential drivers is critical for guiding future conservation efforts. Therefore, we utilized historical (1955–2008) nonbreeding waterfowl survey data collected at 21 National Wildlife Refuges in the mid- to lower portion of the Central Flyway to summarize changes in spring and autumn migration phenology. We examined changes in the timing of peak abundance from survey data at monthly intervals for each refuge and species (or species group; n = 22) by year and site-specific temperature for spring (Jan–Mar) and autumn (Oct–Dec) migration periods. For spring (n = 187) and autumn (n = 194) data sets, 13% and 9% exhibited statistically significant changes in the timing of peak migration across years, respectively, while the corresponding numbers for increasing temperatures were 4% and 9%. During spring migration, ≥80% of significant changes in the timing of spring peak indicated advancements, while 67% of significant changes in autumn peak timing indicated delays both across years and with increasing temperatures. Four refuges showed a consistent pattern across species of advancing spring migration peaks over time. Advancements in spring peak across years became proportionally less common among species with increasing latitude, while delays in autumn peak with increasing temperature became proportionally more common. Our study represents the first comprehensive summary of changes in spring and autumn migration phenology for Central Flyway waterfowl and demonstrates significant phenological changes during the latter part of the twentieth century.

Assessing spatiotemporal variation in abundance: A flexible framework accounting for sampling bias with an application to common pochard ( Aythya ferina )

Assessing trends in the relative abundance of populations is a key yet complex issue for management and conservation. This is a major aim of many large‐scale censusing schemes such as the International Waterbird Count (IWC). However, owing to the lack of sampling strategy and standardization, such schemes likely suffer from biases due to spatial heterogeneity in sampling effort. Despite huge improvements of the statistical tools that allow tackling these statistical issues (e.g., GLMM, Bayesian inference), many conservationists still prefer to rely on stand‐alone turn‐key statistical tools, often violating the prerequisites put forward by the developers of these tools. Here, we propose a straightforward and flexible approach to tackle the typical statistical issues one can encounter when analyzing count data of monitoring schemes such as the IWC. We rely on IWC counts of the declining common pochard populations of the Northwest European flyway as a case study (period 2002–2012). To standardize the size of sampling units and mitigate spatial autocorrelation, we grouped sampling sites using a 75 × 75 km grid cells overlaid over the flyway of interest. Then, we used a hierarchical modeling approach, assessing population trends with random effects at two spatial scales (grid cells, and sites within grid cells) in order to derive spatialized values and to compute the average population trend at the whole flyway scale. Our approach allowed to tackle many statistical issues inherent to this type of analysis but often neglected, including spatial autocorrelation. Concerning the case study, our main findings are that: (1) the northwestern population of common pochards experienced a steep decline (4.9% per year over the 2002–2012 period); (2) the decline was more pronounced at high than low latitude (11.6% and 0.5% per year at 60° and 46° of latitude, respectively); and, (3) the decline was independent of the initial number of individuals in a given site (random across sites). Beyond the case study of the common pochard, our study provides a conceptual statistical framework for estimating and assessing potential drivers of population trends at various spatial scales.

Increased Water Abstraction and Climate Change Have Substantial Effect on Morphometry, Salinity, and Biotic Communities in Lakes: Examples from the Semi-Arid Burdur Basin (Turkey)

Global warming and altered precipitation patterns are predicted to intensify the water loss in semi-arid and arid regions, and such regions in Turkey will be particularly affected. Moreover, water abstraction, not least for irrigation purposes, is expected to increase markedly, posing major threats to the water balance of the lakes and thus their biodiversity. Among the closed basins in Turkey, the Burdur Closed Basin (BCB), located in the southwest of Turkey, is expected to be most affected. The BCB includes several types of aquatic ecosystems which support high biodiversity, including one Ramsar site, six Important Bird Areas, and a considerable richness of native and endemic fish species. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the potential environmental impacts of climate change and increased water abstraction on BCB lakes and their biotic communities. Here, we combined historical data on ecosystems as well as meteorological, remote sensing, and ground-truth data to analyze the changes in the temperature and precipitation of the BCB, water surface areas, and land use, as well as the potential effects on waterbird and fish communities. We calculated the water budget to elucidate water availability in the basin over the last few decades and predicted future conditions based on rainfall and temperature forecasts using climate models. The Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to relate the water surface area to precipitation and temperature change in the basin. Crop-farming irrigation in the BCB has increased notably since 2004, leading to intensive water abstraction from the lakes and their inflows, as well as from ground water, to meet the increased demand for irrigation. The water abstraction from the lakes, inflows to the lakes, and the groundwater in the basin has increased the water loss in the catchment substantially. Remotely sensed data on lake surface areas showed a major shrinkage of shallow lakes in the last 40 years. Moreover, the largest lake in the basin, Lake Burdur, lost nearly half of its surface area, which is worrisome since the shallower areas are the most suitable for supporting high biodiversity. Climate models (CNRM-ESM2-1GCM for temperature and GFDL-ESM4-GCM for precipitation) suggest that from 2070, the BCB will face long-term, moderate-to-severe dry periods. This, and the increased demand for water for irrigation, along with climate change, may accelerate the drying of these lakes in the near future with devastating effects on the lake ecosystems and their biodiversity.

Unraveling a century of global change impacts on winter bird distributions in the eastern United States

One of the most pressing questions in ecology and conservation centers on disentangling the relative impacts of concurrent global change drivers, climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC), on biodiversity. Yet studies that evaluate the effects of both drivers on species' winter distributions remain scarce, hampering our ability to develop full-annual-cycle conservation strategies. Additionally, understanding how groups of species differentially respond to climate versus LULC change is vital for efforts to enhance bird community resilience to future environmental change. We analyzed long-term changes in winter occurrence of 89 species across nine bird groups over a 90-year period within the eastern United States using Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data. We estimated variation in occurrence probability of each group as a function of spatial and temporal variation in winter climate (minimum temperature, cumulative precipitation) and LULC (proportion of group-specific and anthropogenic habitats within CBC circle). We reveal that spatial variation in bird occurrence probability was consistently explained by climate across all nine species groups. Conversely, LULC change explained more than twice the temporal variation (i.e., decadal changes) in bird occurrence probability than climate change on average across groups. This pattern was largely driven by habitat-constrained species (e.g., grassland birds, waterbirds), whereas decadal changes in occurrence probabilities of habitat-unconstrained species (e.g., forest passerines, mixed habitat birds) were equally explained by both climate and LULC changes over the last century. We conclude that climate has generally governed the winter occurrence of avifauna in space and time, while LULC change has played a pivotal role in driving distributional dynamics of species with limited and declining habitat availability. Effective land management will be critical for improving species' resilience to climate change, especially during a season of relative resource scarcity and critical energetic trade-offs.

Environmental drivers of autumn migration departure decisions in midcontinental mallards

BACKGROUND

The timing of autumn migration in ducks is influenced by a range of environmental conditions that may elicit individual experiences and responses from individual birds, yet most studies have investigated relationships at the population level. We used data from individual satellite-tracked mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) to model the timing and environmental drivers of autumn migration movements at a continental scale.

METHODS

We combined two sets of location records (2004-2007 and 2010-2011) from satellite-tracked mallards during autumn migration in the Mississippi Flyway, and identified records that indicated the start of long-range (≥ 30 km) southward movements during the migration period. We modeled selection of departure date by individual mallards using a discrete choice model accounting for heterogeneity in individual preferences. We developed candidate models to predict the departure date, conditional on daily mean environmental covariates (i.e. temperature, snow and ice cover, wind conditions, precipitation, cloud cover, and pressure) at a 32 × 32 km resolution. We ranked model performance with the Bayesian Information Criterion.

RESULTS

Departure was best predicted (60% accuracy) by a "winter conditions" model containing temperature, and depth and duration of snow cover. Models conditional on wind speed, precipitation, pressure variation, and cloud cover received lower support. Number of days of snow cover, recently experienced snow cover (snow days) and current snow cover had the strongest positive effect on departure likelihood, followed by number of experienced days of freezing temperature (frost days) and current low temperature. Distributions of dominant drivers and of correct vs incorrect prediction along the movement tracks indicate that these responses applied throughout the latitudinal range of migration. Among recorded departures, most were driven by snow days (65%) followed by current temperature (30%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that among the tested environmental parameters, the dominant environmental driver of departure decision in autumn-migrating mallards was the onset of snow conditions, and secondarily the onset of temperatures close to, or below, the freezing point. Mallards are likely to relocate southwards quickly when faced with snowy conditions, and could use declining temperatures as a more graduated early cue for departure. Our findings provide further insights into the functional response of mallards to weather factors during the migration period that ultimately determine seasonal distributions.