A systematic review of the performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in the setting of liver transplantation

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease. However, the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge. Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates. Traditionally, scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process. Nevertheless, the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence models.

AIM

To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT, comparing their per formance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database. Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year, age, or gender. Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English stu dies, review articles, case reports, conference papers, studies with missing data, or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.

RESULTS

Our search yielded a total of 64 articles, with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. Among the selected studies, 60.8% originated from the United States and China combined. Only one pediatric study met the criteria. Notably, 91% of the studies were published within the past five years. ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (ranging from 0.6 to 1) across all studies, surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems. Random forest exhibited superior predictive capa bilities for 90-d mortality following LT, sepsis, and acute kidney injury (AKI). In contrast, gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease, pneumonia, and AKI.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT, marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Increasing practice and acceptable outcomes of high-MELD living donor liver transplantation in the USA

Recent deceased-donor allocation changes in the United States may have increased high-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) living donor liver transplantation (LDLT); however, outcomes in these patients remain poorly defined. We aimed to examine the impact of the MELD score on LDLT outcomes. Using UNOS data (January 1, 2010-December 31, 2021), LDLT recipients were identified and stratified into low-MELD (<15), intermediate-MELD (15-24), and high-MELD (≥25) groups. We compared outcomes between MELD-stratified LDLT groups and between MELD-stratified LDLT and donation after brain death liver transplantation recipients. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare graft survival rates and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling to identify factors associated with graft outcomes. Of 3558 LDLTs, 1605 (45.1%) were low-MELD, 1616 (45.4%) intermediate-MELD, and 337 (9.5%) high-MELD. Over the study period, the annual number of LDLTs increased from 282 to 569, and the proportion of high-MELD LDLTs increased from 3.9% to 7.7%. Graft survival was significantly higher in low-MELD versus high-MELD LDLT recipients (adjusted HR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.03-1.79); however, 5-year survival exceeded 70.0% in both groups. We observed no significant difference in graft survival between high-MELD LDLT and high-MELD donation after brain death liver transplantation recipients (adjusted HR: 1.25, 95% CI:0.99-1.58), with a 5-year survival of 71.5% and 77.3%, respectively. Low LDLT center volume (<3 LDLTs/year) and recipient life support requirement were both associated with inferior graft outcomes among high-MELD LDLT recipients. While higher MELD scores confer graft failure risk in LDLT, high-MELD LDLT outcomes are acceptable with similar outcomes to MELD-stratified donation after brain death liver transplantation recipients. Future practice guidance should consider the expansion of LDLT recommendations to high-MELD recipients in centers with expertise to help reduce donor shortage.

Prevalence of indeterminate tuberculosis interferon-gamma release assays in COVID-19 patients: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and Aims

The reliability of interferon-gamma-release-assays (IGRAs) for tuberculosis (TB) testing in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is unknown. This study aimed to systematically review the prevalence of indeterminate TB-IGRA following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination and to review associated factors.

Methods

This systematic literature review was guided according to the PRISMA guidelines by searching PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Clinicalkey, and Cochrane Library. Studies reporting results of TB-IGRA tests (QuantiFERON [QFT]-TB, T-SPOT.TB) in COVID-19 patients or vaccines were included. The random effects model was used to assess the prevalence of indeterminate IGRA results. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the Τ 2 and 95% predictive interval.

Results

Of the 273 citations screened, 12 articles were included in the final analysis including a total of 2107 patients. The overall pooled effect size proportion of indeterminate QFT-TB results, estimated in eight studies using the QFT-TB Plus assay, was 0.26 (95% CI: 0.205-0.324, Τ 2 = 0.158). The mean true effect size was 0.26 (95% predictive interval: [0.110-0.500]). A subgroup analysis was not undertaken due to the small number of studies. Indeterminate QFT-TB rates were associated with COVID-19 severity, steroid treatment, inflammation-related parameters, neutrophilia, and lymphopenia.

Conclusion

Indeterminate QFT-TB results in COVID-19 patients occur in almost one-quarter of tests performed. Further studies are needed to assess associated factors.

Assessing Thrombocytopenia and Chronic Liver Disease in Southeast Asia: A Multicentric Cross-Sectional Study

Background This multicentric cross-sectional study aimed to examine the prevalence of thrombocytopenia (TCP) and investigate the various causes of chronic liver disease (CLD) across 15 Southeast Asian (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) tertiary care centers over a three-month period. The study focused on assessing the fibrosis index (FI) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-sodium (Na) score's capacity to grade and predict the progression and outcomes of patients with already diagnosed CLD. Methods The cross-sectional study enrolled 377 CLD patients. The study utilized admission registries from 15 tertiary care hospitals in Southeast Asia, spanning from April 2023 to June 2023. Various descriptive variables were collected, including gender, tobacco use (specifically, chewed tobacco), underlying etiology, presence of anemia, leukopenia, pancytopenia, infectious state, and liver cirrhosis diagnosed via traditional ultrasonography. This study examined liver failure indicators, including alanine transaminase levels, compensation status, TCP, and liver transplant (LT) listing. The MELD-Na score was the focus of frequency and percentage analysis. MELD-Na and FI medians and standard deviations were provided. Results The study of 377 patients with CLD found that TCP was present in 4% of patients and leukopenia was present in 12% of patients. The risk of TCP was significantly higher in leukopenic patients (89.5%) than in non-leukopenic patients (52.5%) (p = 0.003). The most common CLD cause was undiagnosable (31%), followed by autoimmune (26%), hepatitis C virus (21%), hepatitis B virus (14%), and schistosomiasis (8%). The majority of patients (98%) had decompensated liver disease. Of the patients, 64% had TCP, while 36% did not. The illness severity indicators MELD score and FI had mean ± SD values of 16.89 ± 6.42 and 4.1 ± 1.06, respectively. Similarly, the prevalence of LT needs among traditional ultrasonography-diagnosed cirrhotic patients was 83.1%, compared to 59.6% among non-cirrhotic patients (p = 0.001). Conclusion Leukopenia and TCP may be linked, which may affect CLD treatment and prognosis in this population. Non-invasive indicators like the FI and MELD-Na score can detect liver fibrosis and severity without invasive procedures, enhancing patient management. These findings highlight the need to improve early diagnosis methods for CLD in Southeast Asia and raise awareness among clinicians about effective diagnostic strategies for non-infectious causes of CLD.

Insulin-like growth factor 1 predicts decompensation and long-term prognosis in patients with compensated cirrhosis

AIM

Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), which is primarily produced in hepatocytes and is associated with liver functional reserve, plays a crucial role in the pathological condition of cirrhosis. This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of serum IGF-1 levels for predicting the long-term prognosis and decompensation development in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 148 patients with cirrhosis and divided them into three groups according to baseline IGF-1 levels: low (L)-, intermediate (I)-, and high (H)-IGF-1 groups. The cumulative survival rates were compared among these groups in compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, respectively. Significant and independent factors associated with mortality and decompensation development were identified using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

RESULTS

The median observation period was 57.1 (41.7-63.2) months. Thirty (20.3%) patients died of liver disease-related events and 21 (22.3%) patients with compensated cirrhosis developed decompensation. Multivariate analysis identified low serum IGF-1 levels as a significant and independent factor associated with mortality (all patients: hazard ratio [HR], 0.967; p = 0.004; patients with compensated cirrhosis: HR, 0.927; p = 0.002). The cumulative survival rates were significantly lower in the L-IGF-1 group than in the H-IGF-1 and I-IGF-1 groups (all patients: p < 0.001 and = 0.009; patients with compensated cirrhosis: p = 0.012 and 0.003, respectively). However, in decompensated cirrhosis, the cumulative survival rates demonstrated no significant differences among the three groups. The cumulative decompensation incidence rates were significantly higher in the L-IGF-1 group than in the H-IGF-1 and I-IGF-1 groups (p < 0.001 and = 0.009, respectively). Low serum IGF-1 levels were significantly and independently associated with decompensation development (HR, 0.939; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Low serum IGF-1 levels were significantly and independently associated with decompensation development and poor long-term prognosis in patients with compensated cirrhosis. Therefore, IGF-1 may be useful for predicting decompensation-related events and should be regularly monitored in the management of compensated phase.

The Albumin-Bilirubin Score as a Predictor of Liver-Related Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis with Compensated Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Although several prognostic scores have been reported to correlate with the prognosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients, there are limited tools to predict the prognosis of PBC with compensated cirrhosis. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score in PBC patients with compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study of 219 patients with compensated PBC cirrhosis to evaluate the prognostic performance of the ALBI using Cox regression model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

During follow-up, a total of 19 subjects (8.7%) met the primary endpoint of liver-related death or liver transplantation (LT). Patients who died/underwent LT have higher ALBI score (-1.06 vs. -2.06, p < 0.001) at baseline than those who survived. ALBI score (hazard ratio: 15.011, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.045-44.665, p < 0.001) was associated with an increase in liver-related mortality or LT. ALBI score had the best discriminative capacity to predict the 5-year liver-related mortality (area under the ROC curve: 0.871, 95% CI [0.820, 0.913]) compared with other prognostic scores. The ROC curve showed that the best cut-off value of ALBI score was -1.47, with 90.0% sensitivity and 76.6% specificity. Also, the probability of transplant-free survival decreased with increasing ALBI grade (log-rank p = 0.003). The 5-year transplant-free survival rates of patients in grade 1, grade 2, and grade 3 were 100.0%, 96.4%, and 89.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

ALBI score is a simple and effective predictive factor estimating the clinical outcome of patients with compensated PBC cirrhosis and provides better prognostic performance compared with other prognostic scores.

Organophosphorus Poisoning: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) and Cardiac Failure as Cause of Death in Hospitalized Patients

Industrial production of food for animals and humans needs increasing amounts of pesticides, especially of organophosphates, which are now easily available worldwide. More than 3 million cases of acute severe poisoning are estimated to occur worldwide every year, and even more cases remain unreported, while 200,000-350,000 incidentally or intentionally poisoned people die every year. Diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in organophosphate poisoning have, however, remained unchanged. In addition to several neurologic symptoms (miosis, fasciculations), hypersecretion of salivary, bronchial, and sweat glands, vomiting, diarrhea, and loss of urine rapidly induce dehydration, hypovolemia, loss of conscience and respiratory distress. Within hours, signs of acidosis due to systemic hypoxia can be observed at first laboratory investigation after hospitalization. While determination of serum-cholinesterase does not have any diagnostic value, it has been established that hypoalbuminemia alone or accompanied by an increase in creatinine, lactate, or C-reactive protein serum levels has negative prognostic value. Increased serum levels of C-reactive protein are a sign of systemic ischemia. Protective mechanical ventilation should be avoided, if possible. In fact, acute respiratory distress syndrome characterized by congestion and increased weight of the lung, accompanied by heart failure, may become the cause of death. As the excess of acetylcholine at the neuronal level can persist for weeks until enough newly, locally synthesized acetylcholinesterase becomes available (the value of oximes in reducing this time is still under debate), after atropine administration, intravenous albumin and fluid infusion should be the first therapeutic interventions to reestablish normal blood volume and normal tissue oxygenation, avoiding death by cardiac arrest.

Recipient Survival after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation: Interpretable Machine Learning Survival Tree Algorithm for Patient-Specific Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Elucidating contributors affecting liver transplant survival is paramount. Current methods offer crude global group outcomes. To refine patient-specific mortality probability estimation and to determine covariate interaction using recipient and donor data, we generated a survival tree algorithm, Recipient Survival After Orthotopic Liver Transplantation (ReSOLT), using United Network Organ Sharing (UNOS) transplant data.

STUDY DESIGN

The UNOS database was queried for liver transplants in patients ≥18 years old between 2000 and 2021. Preoperative factors were evaluated with stepwise logistic regression; 43 significant factors were used in survival tree modeling. Graft survival of <7 days was excluded. The data were split into training and testing sets and further validated with 10-fold cross-validation. Survival tree pruning and model selection was achieved based on Akaike information criterion and log-likelihood values. Log-rank pairwise comparisons between subgroups and estimated survival probabilities were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 122,134 liver transplant patients were included for modeling. Multivariable logistic regression (area under the curve = 0.742, F1 = 0.822) and survival tree modeling returned 8 significant recipient survival factors: recipient age, donor age, recipient primary payment, recipient hepatitis C status, recipient diabetes, recipient functional status at registration and at transplantation, and deceased donor pulmonary infection. Twenty subgroups consisting of combinations of these factors were identified with distinct Kaplan-Meier survival curves (p < 0.001 among all by log rank test) with 5- and 10-year survival probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival trees are a flexible and effective approach to understand the effects and interactions of covariates on survival. Individualized survival probability following liver transplant is possible with ReSOLT, allowing for more coherent patient and family counseling and prediction of patient outcome using both recipient and donor factors.

Thrombocytopenia (TCP), MELD Score, and Fibrosis Index (FI) Among Hospitalized Patients with Chronic Liver Disease (CLD) in Ma'abar City, Dhamar Governorate, Yemen: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

This study sought to assess the prevalence of thrombocytopenia (TCP), underlying aetiologies of chronic liver disease, and the grading and prognostic systems for chronic liver disease (CLD) using non-invasive biomarkers: the Fibrosis index and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na (MELD-Na) Score, respectively.

Patients and Methods

This was a 15-month multi-centric cross-sectional study of 105 patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). The study was conducted using Sept 2019 to Nov 2020 admission records of CLD patients from Ma'abar City in Dhamar Governorate, Yemen.

Results

A total of 63 (60%) and 42 (40%) patients were identified as thrombocytopenic and non-thrombocytopenic, respectively. The means ± SD of the MELD score and FI were 19 ± 7.302 and 4.1 ± 1.06. TCP prevalence among leukopenic and non-leukopenic patients was 89.5% and 53.5%, respectively (P = 0.004). Likewise, the prevalence of traditional-ultrasonography-diagnosed cirrhotic patients needing liver transplantation (LT) was 82.3% versus 61.3% among corresponding non-cirrhotic patients (P = 0.000).

Conclusion

The prevalence of TCP among the participants of this study was similar to the global rate. However, the prevalence of decompensation was much higher among CLD patients than that found elsewhere, highlighting a need to improve methods for the early diagnosis of CLD in Yemen. This study also identified problems with the diagnostic work-up for non-infectious aetiologies of CLD. The findings suggest the need to improve clinician awareness about effective diagnostic strategies for these aetiologies.

Prognosis of systemic inflammation at an early stage of cirrhosis using the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio during malnutrition risk screening: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), as a systemic inflammation index, predicts malnutrition risk during the early stages of cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center prospective cohort study, enrolling patients from June 2016 to September 2020. The patients underwent malnutrition risk assessments upon admission. The patients were classified into five clinical stages according to portal hypertension. The malnutrition risk was scored using the Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool (RFH-NPT) and validated by the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) or Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool (LDUST). Routine clinical laboratory measurements were performed to calculate the MLR, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The patients were followed up for 2 years.

RESULTS

Among the 154 patients with cirrhosis, 60 had compensated cirrhosis and 94 had decompensated cirrhosis. The optimal cutoff value of the MLR, >0.4, was effective in predicting malnutrition related to death or liver transplantation. Those with a high malnutrition risk defined by the NRS-2002 or RFH-NPT had a higher MLR than those with a low malnutrition risk. For patients with class A CTP cirrhosis or a MELD score of <10, an MLR cutoff of <0.4 significantly distinguished more patients with a low malnutrition risk than those with a high malnutrition risk. Both the RFH-NPT score and MLR increased significantly across the decompensated cirrhosis substages. Interestingly, the MLR exhibited a positive correlation with the RFH-NPT score until varices appeared, but the correlation was the highest at the substage of a history of variceal bleeding (r = 0.714, P = 0.009). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that an MLR of >0.4 was an independent factor for malnutrition risk by screening with the RFH-NPT, and this was confirmed using the LDUST and NRS-2002.

CONCLUSION

Immune-related inflammatory dysfunction predicts malnutrition risk during the early stages of cirrhosis.

Low syntaxin 17 expression in donor liver is associated with poor graft prognosis in recipients of living donor liver transplantation

AIM

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only curative therapy for decompensated liver cirrhosis. For recipients of living donor LT (LDLT), restoration of liver function after transplantation is highly dependent on liver regenerative capacity, which requires large amounts of intracellular energy. Mitochondrial metabolism provides a stable supply of adenosine 5'-triphosphate (ATP) for liver regeneration. Mitophagy is a selective process in which damaged, non-functional mitochondria are degraded and replaced with new functional mitochondria. We investigated the relationship between expression of Syntaxin17 (STX17), a key protein in mitophagy regulation, in donor livers and graft survival.

METHODS

We examined STX17 expression in grafts from 143 LDLT donors who underwent right lobe resection and investigated the relationship between STX17 expression and graft function. We investigated the correlations among STX17 expression, mitochondrial membrane potential and cell proliferation, using a STX17-knockdown hepatocyte cell line.

RESULTS

Recipients transplanted with low STX17-expression grafts had significantly lower graft survival rates than recipients transplanted with high STX17-expression grafts (88.9% vs. 100%, p < 0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that low STX17 expression (HR: 10.7, CI: 1.29-88.0, p < 0.05) and the absence of splenectomy (HR: 6.27, CI: 1.59-24.8, p < 0.01) were independent predictive factors for small-for-size graft syndrome, which is the severe complication in LDLT. In the vitro experiments, the percentage of depolarized damaged mitochondria was increased in the STX17-knockdown hepatocyte cell line, suggesting decreased mitophagy and ATP synthesis. Cell proliferation was significantly decreased in the STX17-knockdown hepatocyte cell line.

CONCLUSION

STX17 contributes to mitophagy and maintenance of mitochondrial function in hepatocytes and may be a predictor of graft dysfunction in LDLT patients.

Nephew L. Neighborhood poverty is associated with failure to be waitlisted and death during liver transplantation evaluation

Liver transplantation (LT) is the final step in a complex care cascade. Little is known about how race, gender, rural versus urban residence, or neighborhood socioeconomic indicators impact a patient's likelihood of LT waitlisting or risk of death during LT evaluation. We performed a retrospective cohort study of adults referred for LT to the Indiana University Academic Medical Center from 2011 to 2018. Neighborhood socioeconomic status indicators were obtained by linking patients' addresses to their census tract defined in the 2017 American Community Survey. Descriptive statistics were used to describe completion of steps in the LT evaluation cascade. Multivariable analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with waitlisting and death during LT evaluation. There were 3454 patients referred for LT during the study period; 25.3% of those referred were waitlisted for LT. There was no difference seen in the proportion of patients from vulnerable populations who progressed to the steps of financial approval or evaluation start. There were differences in waitlisting by insurance type (22.6% of Medicaid vs. 34.3% of those who were privately insured; p < 0.01) and neighborhood poverty (quartile 1 29.6% vs. quartile 4 20.4%; p < 0.01). On multivariable analysis, neighborhood poverty was independently associated with waitlisting (odds ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-0.82) and death during LT evaluation (hazard ratio 1.49, 95% CI 1.09-2.09). Patients from high-poverty neighborhoods are at risk of failing to be waitlisted and death during LT evaluation.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatic encephalopathy

The EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) on the management of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) present evidence-based answers to a set of relevant questions (where possible, formulated in PICO [patient/population, intervention, comparison and outcomes] format) on the definition, diagnosis, differential diagnosis and treatment of HE. The document does not cover the pathophysiology of HE and does not cover all available treatment options. The methods through which it was developed and any information relevant to its interpretation are also provided.

Up-regulated LRRN2 expression as a marker for graft quality in living donor liver transplantation

The quality and size of liver grafts are critical factors that influence living‐donor liver transplantation (LDLT) function and safety. However, the biomarkers used for predicting graft quality are lacking. In this study, we sought to identify unique graft quality markers, aside from donor age, by using the livers of non‐human primates. Hepatic gene microarray expression data from young and elderly cynomolgus macaques revealed a total of 271 genes with significantly increased expression in the elderly. These candidate genes were then narrowed down to six through bioinformatics analyses. The expression patterns of these candidate genes in human donor liver tissues were subsequently examined. Importantly, we found that grafts exhibiting up‐regulated expression of these six candidate genes were associated with an increased incidence of liver graft failure. Multivariable analysis further revealed that up‐regulated expression of LRRN2 (encoding leucine‐rich repeat protein, neuronal 2) in donor liver tissue served as an independent risk factor for graft failure (odds ratio 4.50, confidence interval 2.08–9.72). Stratification based on graft expression of LRRN2 and donor age was also significantly associated with 6‐month graft survival rates. Conclusion: Up‐regulated LRRN2 expression of liver graft is significantly correlated with graft failure in LDLT. In addition, combination of graft LRRN2 expression and donor age may represent a promising marker for predicting LDLT graft quality.

Prognostic value of von-Willebrand factor in patients with liver cirrhosis and its relation to other prognostic indicators

BACKGROUND

Von-Willebrand factor (vWF) disposes certain prognostic value in patients with liver cirrhosis, but its relation to other prognostic indicators has not been fully investigated.

AIM

To analyze the relation between vWF and other prognostic indicators in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate its prognostic value for mortality.

METHODS

This analytic prospective study was carried out in a tertiary center and initially enrolled 71 patients with liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. It analyzed the relation between vWF and the stage of the disease and several inflammatory and prognostic indicators. The prospective analysis, performed on a sample of 63 patients, evaluated the association between the selected variables [vWF, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, vitamin D, activated partial thromboplastin time, thrombin time, D-dimer concentration] and the survival time as well as their predictive value in terms of 3-mo, 6-mo and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

vWF was significantly higher in patients with higher Child-Turcotte-Pugh class (P = 0.0045), MELD group (P = 0.0057), ferritin group (P = 0.0278), and D-dimer concentration (P = 0.0232). vWF significantly correlated with D-dimer concentration, ferritin, CRP, International Normalized Ratio, and MELD, Child-Turcotte-Pugh, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and CLIF-consortium organ failure (CLIF-C OF) scores. vWF, MELD score, and CRP were significantly associated with death and were significant predictors of 3-mo, 6-mo, and 1-year mortality. Each vWF unit significantly increased the probability for 3-mo mortality by 1.005 times (P = 0.008), for 6-mo mortality by 1.006 times (P = 0.005), and for 1-year mortality by 1.007 times (P = 0.002). There was no significant difference between the diagnostic performance of vWF and MELD score and also between vWF and CRP regarding the 3-mo, 6-mo, and 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSION

In patients with liver cirrhosis, vWF is significantly related to other prognostic indicators and is a significant predictor of 3-mo, 6-mo, and 1-year mortality similar to MELD score and CRP.

Development of a Novel Prognostic Nomogram for High Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Recipients Following Deceased Donor Liver Transplantation

Background

A high model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (>30) adversely affects outcomes even if patients receive prompt liver transplantation (LT). Therefore, balanced allocation of donor grafts is indispensable to avoid random combinations of donor and recipient risk factors, which often lead to graft or recipient loss. Predictive models aimed at avoiding donor risk factors in high-MELD score recipients are urgently required to obtain satisfactory outcomes.

Method

Data of patients with MELD score >30 who underwent LT at three transplantation institutes between 2015 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Early allograft dysfunction (EAD), length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and graft loss were recorded. Corresponding independent risk factors were analyzed using stepwise multivariable regression analysis. A prediction model of graft loss was developed, and discrimination and calibration were measured.

Results

After applying the exclusion criteria, 778 patients were enrolled. The incidence of EAD was 34.8% (271/778). Donor graft macrovesicular steatosis, graft-to-recipient weight ratio (GRWR), warm ischemia time (WIT), cold ischemia time (CIT), and ABO blood incompatibility, together with donor serum albumins, were independent predictors of EAD. The incidence of ICU stay over 10 days was 64.7% (503/778). Donor age, recipient's MELD score, Child score, and CIT were independent predictors of ICU stay. The 3-year graft survival rates (GSRs) in the training and validation cohorts were 64.2 and 59.3%, respectively. The independent predictors of graft loss were recipient's Child score, ABO blood type incompatibility, donor serum total bilirubin over 17.1 μmol/L, and cold CIT. A nomogram based on these variables was internally and externally validated and showed good performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 70.8 and 66.0%, respectively). For a recipient with a high MELD score, the avoidance of ABO blood type incompatibility and CIT ≥6 h would achieve a 3-year GSR of up to 78.4%, whereas the presence of the aforementioned risk factors would decrease the GSR to 35.4%.

Conclusion

The long-term prognosis of recipients with MELD scores >30 could be greatly improved by avoiding ABO blood type incompatibility and CIT ≥6 h.

Performance of the model for end-stage liver disease score for mortality prediction and the potential role of etiology

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Although the discriminative ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is generally considered acceptable, its calibration is still unclear. In a validation study, we assessed the discriminative performance and calibration of 3 versions of the model: original MELD-TIPS, used to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS); classic MELD-Mayo; and MELD-UNOS, used by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). We also explored recalibrating and updating the model.

METHODS

In total, 776 patients who underwent elective TIPS (TIPS cohort) and 445 unselected patients (non-TIPS cohort) were included. Three, 6 and 12-month mortality predictions were calculated by the 3 MELD versions: discrimination was assessed by c-statistics and calibration by comparing deciles of predicted and observed risks. Cox and Fine and Grey models were used for recalibration and prognostic analyses.

RESULTS

In the TIPS/non-TIPS cohorts, the etiology of liver disease was viral in 402/188, alcoholic in 185/130, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in 65/33; mean follow-up±SD was 25±9/19±21 months; and the number of deaths at 3-6-12 months was 57-102-142/31-47-99, respectively. C-statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.72 in TIPS and 0.66 to 0.76 in non-TIPS cohorts across prediction times and scores. A post hoc analysis revealed worse c-statistics in non-viral cirrhosis with more pronounced and significant worsening in the non-TIPS cohort. Calibration was acceptable with MELD-TIPS but largely unsatisfactory with MELD-Mayo and -UNOS whose performance improved much after recalibration. A prognostic analysis showed that age, albumin, and TIPS indication might be used to update the MELD.

CONCLUSIONS

In this validation study, the performance of the MELD score was largely unsatisfactory, particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. MELD recalibration and candidate variables for an update to the MELD score are proposed.

LAY SUMMARY

While the discriminative performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is credited to be fair to good, its calibration, the correspondence of observed to predicted mortality, is still unsettled. We found that application of 3 different versions of the MELD in 2 independent cirrhosis cohorts yielded largely imprecise mortality predictions particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. Thus, we propose a recalibration and suggest candidate variables for an update to the model.

Development of Models to Predict Postoperative Complications for Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Surgical treatment remains the best option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) caused by chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. However, there is no optimal tool based on readily accessible clinical parameters to predict postoperative complications. Herein, our study aimed to develop models that permitted risk of severe complications to be assessed before and after liver resection based on conventional variables.

Methods

A total of 1,047 patients treated by hepatectomy for HCC with HBV infection at three different centers were recruited retrospectively between July 1, 2014, and July 1, 2018. All surgical complications were recorded and scored by the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI). A CCI ≥26.2 was used as a threshold to define patients with severe complications. We built two models for the CCI, one using preoperative and one using preoperative and postoperative data. Besides, CCI and other potentially relevant factors were evaluated for their ability to predict early recurrence and metastasis. All the findings were internally validated in the Hangzhou cohort and then externally validated in the Lanzhou and Urumqi cohorts.

Results

Multivariable analysis identified National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (NNIS) index, tumor number, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), total cholesterol (TC), potassium, and thrombin time as the key preoperative parameters related to perioperative complications. The nomogram based on the preoperative model [preoperative CCI After Surgery for Liver tumor (CCIASL-pre)] showed good discriminatory performance internally and externally. A more accurate model [postoperative CCI After Surgery for Liver tumor (CCIASL-post)] was established, combined with the other four postoperative predictors including leukocyte count, basophil count, erythrocyte count, and total bilirubin level. No significant association was observed between CCI and long-term complications.

Conclusion

Based on the widely available clinical data, statistical models were established to predict the complications after hepatectomy in patients with HBV infection. All the findings were extensively validated and shown to be applicable nationwide. Such models could be used as guidelines for surveillance follow-up and the design of post-resection adjuvant therapy.

An Explainable Artificial Intelligence Framework for the Deterioration Risk Prediction of Hepatitis Patients

In recent years, artificial intelligence-based computer aided diagnosis (CAD) system for the hepatitis has made great progress. Especially, the complex models such as deep learning achieve better performance than the simple ones due to the nonlinear hypotheses of the real world clinical data. However,complex model as a black box, which ignores why it make a certain decision, causes the model distrust from clinicians. To solve these issues, an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework is proposed in this paper to give the global and local interpretation of auxiliary diagnosis of hepatitis while retaining the good prediction performance. First, a public hepatitis classification benchmark from UCI is used to test the feasibility of the framework. Then, the transparent and black-box machine learning models are both employed to forecast the hepatitis deterioration. The transparent models such as logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT)and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) are picked. While the black-box model such as the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), random forests (RF) are selected. Finally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) are utilized to improve the model interpretation of liver disease. The experimental results show that the complex models outperform the simple ones. The developed RF achieves the highest accuracy (91.9%) among all the models. The proposed framework combining the global and local interpretable methods improves the transparency of complex models, and gets insight into the judgments from the complex models, thereby guiding the treatment strategy and improving the prognosis of hepatitis patients. In addition, the proposed framework could also assist the clinical data scientists to design a more appropriate structure of CAD.

Early- and long-term outcomes of liver transplantation with rescue allocation grafts

In France, liver grafts which have been refused by at least five centers are proposed as rescue allocation (RA). The aim of this study is to clarify the feasibility and safety of RA grafts in liver transplantation (LT). Short- and long-term outcomes of patients who received RA grafts (RA group) were compared with those of patients who received standard allocation (SA) grafts (SA group). From a total of 1635 patients, 102 patients received RA grafts. Before matching, the RA group was characterized primarily by less severe liver disease, but the quality of graft was worse. After matching recipients' characteristics of 102 patients who used RA grafts with 306 patients who used SA grafts, recipients' characteristics were well balanced (1:3 matching). Although the rate of primary dysfunction was significantly higher in the RA group, there is no significant difference in the occurrence of major complications, length of hospitalization, and mortality between two groups. Graft survival (GS) and overall survival (OS) in the RA group were not significantly different from the SA group (GS; HR = 1.03 P = .89, OS; HR = 1.03 P = .90). In the French allocation system, the feasibility and safety of RA grafts might be comparable to SA grafts for carefully selected patients.

Identification of exacerbation risk in patients with liver dysfunction using machine learning algorithms

The prediction of the liver failure (LF) and its proper diagnosis would lead to a reduction in the complications of the disease and prevents the progress of the disease. To improve the treatment of LF patients and reduce the cost of treatment, we build a machine learning model to forecast whether a patient would deteriorate after admission to the hospital. First, a total of 348 LF patients were included from May 2011 to March 2018 retrospectively in this study. Then, 15 key clinical indicators are selected as the input of the machine learning algorithm. Finally, machine learning and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are used to forecast the LF deterioration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) of MELD, GLMs, CART, SVM and NNET with 10 fold-cross validation was 0.670, 0.554, 0.794, 0.853 and 0.912 respectively. Additionally, the accuracy of MELD, GLMs, CART, SVM and NNET was 0.669, 0.456, 0.794, 0.853 and 0.912. The predictive performance of the developed machine model execept the GLMs exceeds the classic MELD model. The machine learning method could support the physicians to trigger the initiation of timely treatment for the LD patients.

Liver resection in Cirrhotic liver: Are there any limits?

Liver resection remains one of the most technically challenging surgical procedure in abdominal surgery due to the complex anatomical arrangement in the liver and its rich blood supply that constitutes about 20% of the cardiac output per cycle. The challenge for resection in cirrhotic livers is even higher because of the impact of surgical stress and trauma imposed on borderline liver function and the impaired ability for liver regeneration in cirrhotic livers. Nonetheless, evolution and advancement in surgical techniques as well as knowledge in perioperative management of liver resection has led to a substantial improvement in surgical outcome in recent decade. The objective of this article was to provide updated information on the recent developments in liver surgery, from preoperative evaluation, to technicality of resection, future liver remnant augmentation and finally, postoperative management of complications.

Prioritization for liver transplantation using the MELD score in Chile: Inequities generated by MELD exceptions.: A collaboration between the Chilean Liver Transplant Programs, the Public Health Institute and the National Transplant Coordinator

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

The MELD score has been established as an efficient and rigorous prioritization system for liver transplant (LT). Our study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the MELD score as a system for prioritization for LT, in terms of decreasing the dropout rate in the waiting list and maintaining an adequate survival post-LT in Chile.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed the Chilean Public Health Institute liver transplant registry of candidates listed from October 15th 2011 to December 31st 2014. We included adult candidates (>15 years old) listed for elective cadaveric LT with a MELD score of 15 or higher. Statistical analysis included survival curves (Kaplan-Meier), log-rank statistics and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

420 candidates were analyzed. Mean age was 53.6±11.8 years, and 244 were men (58%). Causes of LT included: Liver cirrhosis without exceptions (HC) 177 (66.4%); hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) 111 (26.4%); cirrhosis with non-HCC exceptions 102 (24.3%) and non-cirrhotic candidates 30 (7.2%). LT rate was 43.2%. The dropout rate was 37.6% at 1-year. Even though the LT rate was higher, the annual dropout rate was significantly higher in cirrhotic candidates (without exceptions) compared with cirrhotics with HCC, and non-HCC exceptions plus non-cirrhotic candidates (47.9%; 37.2% and 24.2%, respectively, with p=0.004). Post-LT survival was 84% per year, with no significant differences between the three groups (p=0.95).

CONCLUSION

Prioritization for LT using the MELD score system has not decreased the dropout rate in Chile (persistent low donor's rate). Exceptions generate inequities in dropout rate, disadvantaging patients without exceptions.

Impact of Albumin-Bilirubin Score on Short- and Long-Term Survival After Living-Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, stratified from the ALBI score, may have prognostic value in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We aim to evaluate the prognostic abilities of the ALBI score/grade among living-donor liver transplantation patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data of 81 patients who underwent living-donor liver transplant at Kobe University Hospital between June 2000 and October 2018. The efficacy of the ALBI score/grade as a prognostic factor was assessed and compared with that of the well-established Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score.

MAIN FINDINGS

Multivariate analysis indicated that recipient age (P = .003), donor age (P = .003), ALBI score ≥ -1.28 (P = .002), and ALBI grade III (P = .004) were independently associated with post-transplant survival. A high MELD score was not associated with post-transplant survival in univariate or multivariate analyses. Although there was no significant difference in the overall survival rate relative to recipient and donor age, ALBI score/grade was significantly associated with the 1- and 5-year survival rates (P = .023, P = .005). ALBI scores specifically detected fatal complications of post-transplant graft dysfunction (P = .031) and infection (P = .020).

CONCLUSION

ALBI score/grade predicted patient survival more precisely than the MELD score did, suggesting that it is a more useful prognostic factor compared to the MELD score in living-donor liver transplantation cases.

Antifibrotic Effects of Amyloid-Beta and Its Loss in Cirrhotic Liver

The function and regulation of amyloid-beta (Aβ) in healthy and diseased liver remains unexplored. Because Aβ reduces the integrity of the blood-brain barrier we have examined its potential role in regulating the sinusoidal permeability of normal and cirrhotic liver. Aβ and key proteins that generate (beta-secretase 1 and presenilin-1) and degrade it (neprilysin and myelin basic protein) were decreased in human cirrhotic liver. In culture, activated hepatic stellate cells (HSC) internalized Aβ more efficiently than astrocytes and HSC degraded Aβ leading to suppressed expression of α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), collagen 1 and transforming growth factor β (TGFβ). Aβ also upregulated sinusoidal permeability marker endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) and decreased TGFβ in cultured human liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (hLSEC). Liver Aβ levels also correlate with the expression of eNOS in transgenic Alzheimer’s disease mice and in human and rodent cirrhosis/fibrosis. These findings suggest a previously unexplored role of Aβ in the maintenance of liver sinusoidal permeability and in protection against cirrhosis/fibrosis via attenuation of HSC activation.

Impact of the MELD score on the survival of hepatocellular carcinoma transplantation patients in Brazil: a systematic review

This study aimed to analyse the predictive value of Model For End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score on medium- and long-term survival in transplanted hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients in Brazil. The study was registered with International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) under N# 152,363. Inclusion criteria were based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) recommendations. The search was performed on the indexed databases of Lilacs, SciELO, PubMed, and Cochrane Library, and used as search strategy the following Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms: ((("MELD Score") OR "Model For End-Stage Liver Disease") AND "Hepatocellular Carcinoma") AND ("Brazil"). We included full-text articles published from January 2006 to October 2019. The initial search found 162 articles. After reading the available abstracts and full texts, 156 articles were excluded, totaling six articles for qualitative analysis. Although the small number of eligible articles was a limiting factor of the study, our results partially corroborated those found in the United States, United Kingdom, and Ireland. In these countries, unlike Brazil, MELD prognostic model has shown a strong association with post-liver transplant (LT) survival. However, the low predictive capacity of the model in medium- and long-term has been similar to the one of our study. The urgency of the development and validation of a post-transplant survival model for patients with HCC is set, improving the organ allocation system in Brazil.

MELD-XI Score and Coronary Artery Disease Prevalence and Extent Among In-Hospital Patients With End-Stage Liver Failure Awaiting Transplant

OBJECTIVES

Liver transplant is a life-saving procedure for a variety of end-stage liver diseases. Cardiovascular disorders are among the leading cause of death among patients with end-stage liver disease and those undergoing liver transplant procedures. MELD-XI score is a newly developed score for mortality prediction in patients with end-stage liver failure. In this study, we investigated the relationships among MELD-XI score, total in-hospital mortality, and coronary artery disease severity and extent among patients with end-stage liver failure who were awaiting transplant.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed medical records of 121 patients with end-stage liver failure on transplant wait list. Study patients had undergone coronary angiography as part of pretransplant cardiac evaluation. We determined prevalence of coronary artery disease and Gensini score (which indicates extent of coronary artery disease) using coronary angiography and reviewed MELD-XI score and in-hospital mortality rates. We compared MELD-XI score and Gensini score in deceased and surviving patients and correlated both scores with mortality and with each other.

RESULTS

Of 121 patients, 79 (65.3%) were men; mean age of the study population was 59.6 ± 10.2 years. Twenty-eight patients (23.1%) had coronary artery disease, and 13 (10.7%) had severe coronary artery disease on coronary angiography. Twenty-three patients (19%) died while on the transplant wait list. Gensini score and MELD-XI scores were significantly higher in those who died (P < .05). MELD-XI score, but not Gensini score, was a significant independent predictor of death among patients awaiting liver transplant (hazard ratio = 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.78; P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-XI score independently predicted in-hospital death among patients scheduled to undergo liver transplant. These patients also had increased prevalence and extent of coronary artery disease.

Prognostic value of MELD-XI score in patients referring to the emergency department with acute ST elevation myocardial infarction

Objective:

We aimed to evaluate Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) score for prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality in a cohort of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction.

Methods:

The medical records of a total of 256 patients admitted with ST elevation myocardial infarction to the emergency department between January 2015 and January 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 111 patients were found eligible for the study. MELD-XI score was analyzed and compared on the basis of survival status.

Results:

A total of 111 patients with a mean age of 62.5 ± 2.55 years were included in the study. In total, 81% (n = 90) of the patients were male and 19% (n = 21) were female. The mean MELD-XI score of the patients was 10.1 ± 1.1. A total of 12 patients (12.9%) died within 30 days after hospitalization. The median MELD-XI score of the patients who died in the hospital was significantly higher than the patients survived (11.0 (10.5–11.6) vs 9.5 (9.4–13.8); p < 0.01). However, Gensini score was not significantly different between the surviving and deceased patients (p > 0.05). MELD-XI score was significantly correlated to left ventricular ejection fraction (r = −232, p < 0.01), and both parameters and age were significant independent predictors of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio: 1.73, 95% confidence interval: 1.25–2.39, p < 0.05; odds ratio: 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.81–0.99, p < 0.05; and odds ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.99–1.15, p < 0.05, respectively). A MELD-XI cut-off point of 10 had a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 78.8% for in-hospital mortality (area under receiver operating characteristics curve: 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.87–0.97, p < 0.05). A survival analysis based on a MELD-XI threshold of 10 revealed that the patients in the high-MELD-XI group had a significantly worse in-hospital survival (log rank test p < 0.001).

Conclusion:

MELD-XI score is a useful tool for in-hospital mortality prediction in patients referring to emergency medicine with acute ST elevation myocardial infarction.

Liver Strain Using Feature Tracking of Cine Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging: Assessment of Liver Dysfunction in Patients with Fontan Circulation and Tetralogy of Fallot

We propose a novel method to quantify pulsatile liver deformation using the feature tracking method of cardiac cine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and investigate its association with liver dysfunction in long-term postoperative patients after Fontan and intracardiac repair for the tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). Standard cine MRI which was previously performed for cardiac evaluation of 85 patients who underwent Fontan operation (mean age, 22.9 years), 43 patients with TOF (mean age, 34.6 years), and 32 healthy controls (mean age, 42.3 years) were retrospectively analyzed. Pulsatile liver deformation in the craniocaudal direction was calculated using the feature tracking method of cardiac cine imaging derived from cine-balanced turbo field-echo sequences performed on a 1.5 Tesla MR scanner, and was defined as liver strain. The liver strain was compared across the three patient groups using one-way analysis of variance. Liver dysfunction by a liver strain were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. Liver strain for patients who underwent Fontan operation and TOF patients was significantly lower than controls (Fontan, 13.3 ± 6.5%; TOF, 15.0 ± 11.2%; controls, 23.1 ± 10.2%, p < 0.0001). In Fontan and TOF patients, MELD score was significantly greater for patients with a liver strain < 15% than those with values > 15% (5.9 ± 5.8 vs. 2.9 ± 2.9, p < 0.001). Lower liver strain values were found in adolescent and adult patients after Fontan operation and TOF, and correlates with the severity of liver injury, expressed as MELD score. Our method can evaluate hepatic function in adult congenital heart disease, together with the assessment of cardiac function.

Development of a national Department of Veterans Affairs mortality risk prediction model among patients with cirrhosis

Objective

Cirrhotic patients are at high hospitalisation risk with subsequent high mortality. Current risk prediction models have varied performances with methodological room for improvement. We used current analytical techniques using automatically extractable variables from the electronic health record (EHR) to develop and validate a posthospitalisation mortality risk score for cirrhotic patients and compared performance with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), model for end-stage liver disease with sodium (MELD-Na), and the CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation (CLIF-C AD) models.

Design

We analysed a retrospective cohort of 73 976 patients comprising 247 650 hospitalisations between 2006 and 2013 at any of 123 Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals. Using 45 predictor variables, we built a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model with all-cause mortality as the outcome. We compared performance to the three extant models and reported discrimination and calibration using bootstrapping. Furthermore, we analysed differential utility using the net reclassification index (NRI).

Results

The C-statistic for the final model was 0.863, representing a significant improvement over the MELD, MELD-Na, and the CLIF-C AD, which had C-statistics of 0.655, 0.675, and 0.679, respectively. Multiple risk factors were significant in our model, including variables reflecting disease severity and haemodynamic compromise. The NRI showed a 24% improvement in predicting survival of low-risk patients and a 30% improvement in predicting death of high-risk patients.

Conclusion

We developed a more accurate mortality risk prediction score using variables automatically extractable from an EHR that may be used to risk stratify patients with cirrhosis for targeted postdischarge management.

Easy prognostic assessment of concomitant organ failure in critically ill patients undergoing mechanical ventilation

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a life-threatening disease. We evaluated the prognostic utility of Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score for predicting mortality in a cohort of critically ill patients on mechanical ventilation.

METHODS

In total, 11,091 mechanically ventilated patients were included in our post-hoc retrospective analysis, a subgroup of the VENTILA study (NCT02731898). Evaluation of associations with mortality was done by logistic and Cox regression analysis, an optimal cut-off was calculated using the Youden Index. We divided the cohort in two sub-groups based on their MELD-XI score at the optimal cut-off (12 score points).

RESULTS

Peak-, plateau- and positive end-expiratory pressure were higher in patients with MELD-XI>12. Patients with MELD-XI>12 had higher driving pressures (14 ± 6 cmH2O versus 13 ± 6; p < 0.001). MELD-XI was associated with 28-day mortality after correction for relevant cofounders including SAPS II and ventilation pressures (HR 1.04 95%CI 1.03-1.05; p < 0.001. Patients with MELD-XI>12 evidenced both increased hospital (46% versus 27%; p < 0.001) and 28-day mortality (39% versus 22%).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-XI is independently associated with mortality and constitutes a useful and easily applicable tool for risk stratification in critically ill patients receiving mechanical ventilation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02731898, registered 4 April 2016.

Serum levels of ferritin and transferrin serve as prognostic factors for mortality and survival in patients with end-stage liver disease: A propensity score-matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with end-stage liver disease are known to suffer from a significantly high risk of mortality, but accurate prediction of the course of disease is challenging.

OBJECTIVE

The study aim was to evaluate the independent prognostic and clinical importance of serum levels of ferritin and transferrin for 90-day survival of patients with liver disease.

METHODS

Patients with end-stage liver disease treated during a 2-year period were enrolled retrospectively in a single-centre study. Unmatched and propensity score matching (PSM) analyses were applied.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 286 patients with end-stage liver disease, of which 22.9% died during the observational period. High serum ferritin levels and low serum transferrin levels were associated significantly with increased 90-day mortality in the unmatched (p < 0.001) and PSM study population (p = 0.017). Serum levels of ferritin and transferrin had high prognostic capability to predict 90-day survival similar to the Model for End-stage Liver Disease. Patients with serum ferritin values >1030.5 µg/l had a 50% risk of dying within 11 days after measurement, which translated up to a 90-day mortality of 83%.

CONCLUSION

Serum levels of ferritin and transferrin have independent and excellent capabilities to determine prognosis in patients with end-stage liver disease. Ferritin measurements can reliably identify those with high mortality in daily practice.

Risk Indices in Deceased-donor Organ Allocation for Transplantation: Review From an Australian Perspective

Over the last decade, organ donation and transplantation rates have increased in Australia and worldwide. Donor and recipient characteristics for most organ types have generally broadened, resulting in the need to consider more complex data in transplant decision-making. As a result of some of these pressures, the Australian software used for donor and recipient data management is currently being updated. Because of the in-built capacity for improved data management, organ allocation processes will have the opportunity to be significantly reviewed, in particular the possible use of risk indices (RIs) to guide organ allocation and transplantation decisions. We aimed to review RIs used in organ allocation policies worldwide and to compare their use to current Australian protocols. Significant donor, recipient, and transplant variables in the indices were summarized. We conclude that Australia has the opportunity to incorporate greater use of RIs in its allocation policies and in transplant decision-making processes. However, while RIs can assist with organ allocation and help guide prognosis, they often have significant limitations which need to be properly appreciated when deciding how to best use them to guide clinical decisions.

Comparative evaluation of ALBI, MELD, and Child-Pugh scores in prognosis of cirrhosis: is ALBI the new alternative?

Background:

The existence of reliable prognostic indices is of paramount importance in the management of cirrhosis. Both the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and the older Child-Pugh (CP) scores are widely used. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, initially used in hepatocellular carcinoma, has not been thoroughly investigated in cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic accuracy of ALBI, MELD, MELD with sodium (MELD-Na), CP, and the corrected for creatinine CP scores in a genetically homogeneous Cretan cirrhotic population.

Methods:

One hundred ninety-five outpatients or hospitalized cirrhotics (127 male, median age 66 years) were studied over a period of 2 years and ALBI, platelet-albumin-bilirubin, MELD, MELD-Na, CP score, and 2 types of modified CP score (CP-I and CP-II) with serum creatinine were calculated and correlated with survival.

Results:

ALBI had an optimum balance between sensitivity and specificity (area under the curve 0.704, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.630-0.778) compared to the other scores. In the multivariate analysis, the only factors independently associated with death were the ALBI score (hazard ratio [HR] 2.51, 95%CI 1.69-3.73; P<0.001), the MELD-Na score (HR 1.04, 95%CI 1.00-1.09; P=0.045), and age (HR 1.05, 95%CI 1.03-1.07; P<0.001). When only decompensated cirrhosis was evaluated, the multivariate analysis showed that the ALBI score (HR 3.03; 95%CI 1.92-4.78; P<0.001), and age (HR 1.05, 95%CI 1.03-1.07; P<0.001) were independently associated with death.

Conclusion:

ALBI score might be a better prognostic indicator of mortality in cirrhosis and given its simplicity could substitute for the CP, MELD, and MELD-Na scores.

The utility of early post-liver transplantation model for end-stage liver disease score in prediction of long-term mortality

Background:

Little is known about the prognostic ability of post-liver transplantation (LT) model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score measurement in assessing long-term outcomes. The aim of the present study was to investigate this possible relationship.

Methods:

In this retrospective cohort study, the medical records of LT recipients operated under a LT program were reviewed. The accuracy of post-operation MELD score for predicting mortality was evaluated based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Univariate and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess the risk factors associated with mortality.

Results:

Eight hundred twenty-six consecutive LT recipients were included in the study. The areas under the ROC curve on postoperative days (POD) 5 and 9 for predicting 1-year mortality were 0.712 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.614-0.811) and 0.682 (95%CI 0.571-0.798), respectively. A cutoff point of 14.5 was obtained for MELD score on POD5 that significantly differentiated between survivors and non-survivors with a sensitivity of 69.8% (95%CI 50.7-83.1) and a specificity of 57.2% (95%CI 50.6-63.6). In the Cox multivariate analysis, factors including MELD score on POD5 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.83, 95%CI 1.07-3.12; P=0.026), pre-transplant MELD (HR 1.064, 95%CI 1.025-1.104; P=0.001) and operation duration (min) (HR 1.004, 95%CI 1.003-1.006; P=0.013) were identified as independent risk factors for predicting overall survival.

Conclusion:

The immediate postoperative MELD scores after LT may be of value in predicting mortality and could be used as a tool for postoperative risk assessment of patients.

Pre- and Peri-Operative Factors Associated with Chronic Critical Illness in Liver Transplant Recipients

Background: Chronic critical illness (CCI) is a new and increasing entity that accounts for substantial cost despite its low incidence. We hypothesized that patients with end-stage liver failure undergoing liver transplant would be at high risk for developing CCI. With limited liver donors it is essential to understand pre- and peritransplant predictors of CCI. Methods: To accomplish this we performed a retrospective cohort study at a large academic transplant center of all adult liver transplant patients from 2011 to 2017. We defined CCI as the need for mechanical ventilation for seven days or more post-transplant. Recipients who had re-transplantation during their index admission, acute rejection, or who died during transplant surgery were excluded. Logistic regression was performed using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the likelihood ratio test. Results: We identified 382 transplant recipients. Forty-five (11.8%) developed CCI. Univariable analysis identified 16 pre-transplant factors associated with post-transplant CCI. Subsequent multivariable logistic regression identified eight independent factors associated with CCI in liver transplant recipients including previous liver transplant, acute renal failure, frailty, lower albumin level, higher international normalized ratio, need for mechanical ventilation, and higher systolic pulmonary artery pressure. Pre-transplant factors associated with protection against CCI included higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Conclusion: The incidence of CCI post-liver transplant is similar to the general population admitted to the intensive care unit. Pre-transplant factors associated with CCI can help identify at-risk patients, and furthermore, promote further research and interventions with the goal to decrease the incidence of CCI in the liver transplant recipients.

Impact of MELD Score-Based Organ Allocation on Mortality, Bleeding, and Transfusion in Liver Transplantation: A Before-and-After Observational Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-based allocation system on mortality, bleeding, and transfusion requirement in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT).

DESIGN

OLTs were studied for this observational study (before-and-after observational cohort study).

SETTING

One community hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

The study comprised 686 patients who underwent 750 consecutive OLTs.

INTERVENTION

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Patients who underwent OLT in the MELD era had an adjusted lower 1-year mortality (adjusted odds ratio 0.45 [0.24-0.83]) compared with patients who underwent OLT the pre-MELD era. No significant difference in 1-month mortality was observed. Other variables with a significant effect on 1-year mortality in multivariate analysis were preoperative international normalized ratio, intraoperative use of a phlebotomy, total intraoperative volume of crystalloid infused, and retransplantation. Blood loss was greater in the MELD era (median difference 200 mL; p < 0.001), as were red blood cell, fresh frozen plasma, and cryoprecipitate transfusions. More patients in the MELD era received at least 1 transfusion (27% v 20%; p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

The MELD allocation system did not affect 1-month mortality, but a decrease in 1-year mortality was demonstrated. Blood loss and transfusions increased during OLTs performed in the MELD era. The role of other variables should be explored further to explain postoperative morbidity and mortality.

Regulation of CCl4-induced liver cirrhosis by hepatically differentiated human dental pulp stem cells

Liver transplantation is the most effective treatment for treating liver cirrhosis. However, a limited number of donors, graft rejection, and other complications can undermine transplant success. It is considered that cell transplantation is an alternative approach of liver transplantation. We previously developed a protocol for hepatic differentiation of cluster of differentiation 117+ stem cells isolated from human exfoliated deciduous tooth pulp (SHEDs) under hydrogen sulfide exposure. These cells showed excellent hepatic function. Here, we investigated whether hepatocyte-like cell transplantation is effective for treating carbon tetrachloride (CCl₄)-induced liver cirrhosis. SHEDs were hepatically differentiated, which was confirmed via immunological analyses and albumin concentration determination in the medium. Rats were intraperitoneally injected with CCl₄ for and the differentiated cells were injected into rat spleen. Histopathological and immunohistochemical analyses were performed. Liver functions were serologically and pathologically determined. Quantitative real-time-polymerase chain reaction was implemented to clarify the treatment procedure of liver cirrhosis. In vitro-differentiated hepatocyte-like cells were positive for all examined hepatic markers. SHED-derived hepatocyte transplantation eliminated liver fibrosis and restored liver structure in rats. Liver immunohistochemical analyses showed the presence of human-specific hepatic markers, i.e., a large amount of human hepatic cells were very active in the liver and spleen. Serological tests revealed significant liver function recovery in the transplantation group. Expression of genes promoting fibrosis increased after cirrhosis induction but was suppressed after transplantation. Our results suggest that xenotransplantation of hepatocyte-like cells of human origin can treat cirrhosis. Moreover, cell-based therapy of chronic liver conditions may be an effective option.

ALBI and PALBI Grades Are Associated with the Outcome of Patients with Stable Decompensated Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

Studies carried out mainly in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), have shown the prognostic significance of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade. Recently, another predictive score incorporating platelet count into ALBI, PALBI grade, was introduced in patients with HCC.

AIM

We evaluated the ability of ALBI and PALBI grades in predicting the outcome (mortality / liver transplantation) of patients with stable decompensated cirrhosis with various etiology of liver diseases.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively studied 325 patients with stable decompensated cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation. Their clinical and laboratory characteristics were recorded including albumin, bilirubin levels, platelets. We estimated ALBI and PALBI grades for every patient. Conventional prognostic scores were also evaluated; Child-Pugh (CTP), Model for End stage Liver Disease (MELD). We followed them up and recorded their outcome.

RESULTS

Beyond MELD and CTP, ALBI and PALBI grades proved significant factors associated with the outcome (HR: 2.13, 95%CI [1.59, 2.85], p < 0.001 and HR: 2.06, 95%CI [1.47, 2.9], p < 0.001, respectively), and their predictive capability was established (ROC analysis; AUC: 0.695, 95% CI [0.634, 0.755] and AUC: 0.683, 95% CI [0.621,0.744], respectively). ALBI and PALBI performed better than CTP score (p = 0.0044 and p = 0.014, respectively). Categorization of our patients into three ALBI groups detected statistically different survival times. Accordingly, PALBI grade 3 compared to those with PALBI grade 1 and 2 patients, had worse outcome and significantly higher frequency of cirrhosis-related complications Conclusions. ALBI and PALBI grades were validated and can be used to predict the outcome in patients with stable decompensated cirrhosis.

Post-operative albumin-bilirubin grade predicts long-term outcomes among Child-Pugh grade A patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

BACKGROUND

Although Child-Pugh grade A patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are candidates for curative resection, some may have a poor prognosis. The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, a measure of liver function based on albumin and bilirubin, has the potential to detect Child-Pugh grade A HCC patients with poor prognosis. Because components of the ALBI grade can be measured easily even after surgery, we explored the predictive values of ALBI in patient prognosis after HCC resection.

METHODS

In this retrospective case-control study, we included 136 HCC patients who underwent curative resection between January 2004 and December 2013 at our hospital. ALBI grade was calculated from laboratory data recorded the day before surgery and at post-operative day 5.

RESULTS

Pre- and post-operative ALBI grade predicted patients' long-term outcomes (P = 0.020 and P < 0.001, respectively, for overall survival, and P = 0.012 and P = 0.015, respectively, for recurrence-free survival). Post-operative ALBI grade was associated with patients' surgical factors of repeated hepatic resection (P = 0.012), intra-operative bleeding (P = 0.006), and surgery duration (P = 0.033). Furthermore, post-operative ALBI grade, rather than pre-operative ALBI grade, was an independent predictive factor of long-term outcome of Child-Pugh grade A patients with HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Post-operative ALBI grade is useful to predict the prognosis in patients after HCC resection.

Clinical outcome of 1,000 consecutive cases of liver transplantation: a single center experience

Purpose

The aim of this study was to analyze survival outcomes in 1,000 consecutive liver transplantations (LTs) performed at a single institution from 1993 to April 2017.

Methods

The study population was divided into 2 groups based on donor type: deceased donor LT (DDLT; n = 181, 18.1%) and living donor LT (LDLT; n = 819; 81.9%), and into 3 periods based on the number of cases (first 300 cases, middle 300 cases, last 400 cases).

Results

Infection was the most common cause of death, accounting for 34.8% (95 of 273). Mortality due to hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence occurred most frequently between 1 and 5 years after transplantation. Mortality rate by graft rejection was highest between 5 and 10 years after transplantation. And mortality by de novo malignancy occurred most frequently after 10 years after transplantation. The patient survival rates for the entire population at 5 and 10 years were 74.7%, and 68.6%, respectively. There was no difference in survival rate between the LDLT and DDLT groups (P = 0.188). Cause of disease, disease severity, case period, and retransplantation had a significant association with patient survival (P = 0.002, P = 0.031, P = 0.003, and P = 0.024, respectively).

Conclusion

Surgical techniques and perioperative management for transplant patients have improved and undergone standardization. Controlling perioperative infection and managing patients with HCC as LT candidates will result in better outcomes.

Prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection in transplant candidates: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) is considered as a serious complication for organ transplant recipients; therefore, the detection and appropriate treatment of latent infection are recommended for preventing active TB infections in the future. The objective of this review is to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing the prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) in transplant candidates.

METHODS

Electronic databases, including MEDLINE (via PubMed), SCOPUS were searched until 30 June 2017. The prevalence of LTBI was estimated using the random effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was evaluated by subgroup analysis. Data were analyzed by STATA version 14.

RESULTS

The pooled prevalence of LTBI based on tuberculin skin test (TST) in different transplant types was as follows: liver 24% (14%-33%, 95% CI), lung 22% (18%-26%), renal 21% (16%-27%, 95% CI) and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) 14% (9%-19%). The prevalence of LTBI based on Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) tests in renal transplant candidates was 31% (95% CI; 25-37%), which was much higher than the prevalence of LTBI in liver transplant candidates (25%, 95% CI; 17-33%) and HCT transplant candidates (13%, 95% CI; 10-16%) and there was statistically significant differences between them. The pooled prevalence of indeterminate results based on IGRAs test in different transplant types was as follows: renal 6% (4%-8%, 95% CI) and liver 12% (2%-21%, 95% CI). Subgroup analysis revealed that there were statistically significant differences between the overall prevalence of indeterminate results by using IGRA tests in liver transplant candidates (12%, 95% CI; 2-21%) and renal transplant candidates (6%, 95% CI; 4-8%). The pooled prevalence of post-transplant TB was 2% (1%-2%, 95% CI) and its occurrence was more common in renal recipients (4% (2%-7%, 95% CI)) than in the liver transplant patients (1% (0%-2%, 95% CI)). The prevalence of LTBI in the subgroup (i.e. the patients' mean age was <50 years) was significantly higher than the prevalence of LTBI by using TST/IGRAs in the other subgroup (i.e. the patients' mean age was ≥50 years).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests fair overall agreement between IGRAs and TST in patients requiring liver and HCT transplantation, while a superiority of IGRAs over TST in patients requiring renal transplantation was seen.

The EMALT Score: An Improved Model for Prediction of Early Mortality in Liver Transplant Recipients

PURPOSE

Needs, risks, and outcomes of patients admitted to a post liver transplant intensive care unit (POLTICU) differ in important ways from those admitted to pretransplant intensive care units (ICUs). The aim of this study was to create the optimal model to risk stratify POLTICU patients.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent first deceased donor liver transplantation (LT) at a large United States center between 2008 and 2014 were followed from admission to LT and to discharge or death. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed to assess the value of various scores in predicting in-hospital mortality. A predictive model was developed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 697 patients underwent LT, and 3.2% died without leaving the hospital. A model for in-hospital mortality was derived from variables available within 24 hours of admission to the POLTICU. Key variables best predicting survival were white blood cell count, 24-hour urine output, and serum glucose. A model using these variables performed with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88, compared to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, which performed with AUCs of 0.74 and 0.60, respectively.

CONCLUSION

An improved model, the early mortality after LT (EMALT) score, performs better than conventional models in predicting in-hospital mortality after LT.

Key roles of hepatologists in successful liver transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) has been carried out for acute liver failure, end-stage liver disease, and congenital metabolic disease in more than 7000 cases in Japan. Liver transplantation has been established as a treatment option, and survival rates have improved. In 2016, a new registration/allocation policy and a new scoring system for deceased donor LT were established. The management of perioperative patients and preoperative therapy for liver failure, nutrition, and preventing infection were upgraded. Moreover, methods for preventing disease recurrence, and treating hepatitis C and B have been developed and are particularly crucial for good outcomes in LT. Treatment of the complications of obesity, lifestyle-related diseases, and malignancy is also required post-LT. Managing patients after LT contributes to better survival and quality of life. The role of hepatologists is becoming broader and more important.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding INR (MELD-XI) score is associated with hemodynamic impairment and predicts mortality in critically ill patients

PURPOSE

We aimed (i) to evaluate Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score for prediction of mortality in a cohort of critically ill patients and (ii) to investigate associations of MELD-XI with microcirculation and (iii) to evaluate microcirculation for prediction of mortality in high-risk patients, e.g., with high MELD-XI scores.

METHODS

308 patients were included in our retrospective analysis, a subgroup of the multicenter micro-SOAP-study. Microcirculation was evaluated by Sidestream Dark Field (SDF) imaging. Evaluation of associations with mortality was done by logistic regression analysis, an optimal cut-off was calculated by means of the Youden Index. We divided the cohort in two sub-groups based on their MELD-XI score at the optimal cut-off (12 score points).

RESULTS

Patients with a MELD-XI > 12 points were of similar age (60 ± 1 years vs 62 ± 2 years; p = 0.32), but clinically sicker as mirrored by higher APACHE II scores (20 ± 1 vs 16 ± 1; p < 0.001). In the MELD-XI > 12 cohort in-hospital mortality was significantly higher compared to the MELD ≤ 12 group (48% vs 24%%; HR 2.98 95%CI 1.76-5.04; p = 0.003) and MELD-XI score was associated with mortality even after correction for relevant clinical confounders (HR 1.04 95%CI 1.01-1.07; p = 0.004) There were no associations between MELD-XI and parameters of microvascular perfusion.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-XI is associated with in-hospital mortality and constitutes a useful tool for risk stratification in intensive care medicine. Interestingly, there were no associations between MELD-XI and microcirculation. Possibly parameters of the microcirculation present an online tool of hemodynamic assessment while MELD-XI presents an assessment of already established organ failure.

A novel learning algorithm to predict individual survival after liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis

Deciding who should receive a liver transplant (LT) depends on both urgency and utility. Most survival scores are validated through discriminative tests, which compare predicted outcomes between patients. Assessing post-transplant survival utility is not discriminate, but should be “calibrated” to be effective. There are currently no such calibrated models. We developed and validated a novel calibrated model to predict individual survival after LT for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC). We applied a software tool, PSSP, to adult patients in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (n = 2769) who received a LT for PSC between 2002 and 2013; this produced a model for predicting individual survival distributions for novel patients. We also developed an appropriate evaluation measure, D-calibration, to validate this model. The learned PSSP model showed an excellent D-calibration (p = 1.0), and passed the single-time calibration test (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value of over 0.05) at 0.25, 1, 5 and 10 years. In contrast, the model based on traditional Cox regression showed worse calibration on long-term survival and failed at 10 years (Hosmer-Lemeshow p value = 0.027). The calculator and visualizer are available at: http://pssp.srv.ualberta.ca/calculator/liver_transplant_2002. In conclusion we present a new tool that accurately estimates individual post liver transplantation survival.