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Gunsalus PR, Rose J, Lehr CJ, Valapour M, Dalton JE. Creating synthetic populations in transplantation: A Bayesian approach enabling simulation without registry re-sampling. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0296839. [PMID: 38512928 PMCID: PMC10956776 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 12/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Computer simulation has played a pivotal role in analyzing alternative organ allocation strategies in transplantation. The current approach to producing cohorts of organ donors and candidates for individual-level simulation requires directly re-sampling retrospective data from a transplant registry. This historical data may reflect outmoded policies and practices as well as systemic inequities in candidate listing, limiting contemporary applicability of simulation results. We describe the development of an alternative approach for generating synthetic donors and candidates using hierarchical Bayesian network probability models. We developed two Bayesian networks to model dependencies among 10 donor and 36 candidate characteristics relevant to waitlist survival, donor-candidate matching, and post-transplant survival. We estimated parameters for each model using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) data. For 100 donor and 100 candidate synthetic populations generated, proportions for each categorical donor or candidate attribute, respectively, fell within one percentage point of observed values; the interquartile ranges (IQRs) of each continuous variable contained the corresponding SRTR observed median. Comparisons of synthetic to observed stratified distributions demonstrated the ability of the method to capture complex joint variability among multiple characteristics. We also demonstrated how changing two upstream population parameters can exert cascading effects on multiple relevant clinical variables in a synthetic population. Generating synthetic donor and candidate populations in transplant simulation may help overcome critical limitations related to the re-sampling of historical data, allowing developers and decision makers to customize the parameters of these populations to reflect realistic or hypothetical future states.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul R. Gunsalus
- Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, United States of America
| | - Johnie Rose
- Center for Community Health Integration, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, United States of America
| | - Carli J. Lehr
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, United States of America
| | - Maryam Valapour
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, United States of America
| | - Jarrod E. Dalton
- Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, United States of America
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2
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Ionescu VA, Diaconu CC, Bungau S, Jinga V, Gheorghe G. Current Approaches in the Allocation of Liver Transplantation. J Pers Med 2022; 12:jpm12101661. [PMID: 36294801 PMCID: PMC9605642 DOI: 10.3390/jpm12101661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2022] [Revised: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
In recent decades, important advances have been made in the field of liver transplantation. One of the major problems remaining in this area is the small number of donors. Thus, recent data bring multiple updates of the indications and contraindications of this therapeutic method. The main goal is to increase the number of patients who can benefit from liver transplantation, a therapeutic method that can improve life expectancy and the quality of life of patients with end-stage liver disease. Another goal in the management of these patients is represented by the optimal care of those on the waiting list during that period. A multidisciplinary team approach is necessary to obtain the best results for both the donor and the recipient.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vlad Alexandru Ionescu
- “Prof. Dr. Theodor Burghele” Clinical Hospital, University of Medicine and Pharmacy Carol Davila, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Gastroenterology, Clinical Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, 105402 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Camelia Cristina Diaconu
- “Prof. Dr. Theodor Burghele” Clinical Hospital, University of Medicine and Pharmacy Carol Davila, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Internal Medicine, Clinical Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, 105402 Bucharest, Romania
- Medical Sciences Section, Academy of Romanian Scientists, 050085 Bucharest, Romania
- Correspondence: (C.C.D.); (S.B.); Tel.: +40-726-377-300 (C.C.D.)
| | - Simona Bungau
- Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Oradea, 410028 Oradea, Romania
- Correspondence: (C.C.D.); (S.B.); Tel.: +40-726-377-300 (C.C.D.)
| | - Viorel Jinga
- “Prof. Dr. Theodor Burghele” Clinical Hospital, University of Medicine and Pharmacy Carol Davila, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
- Medical Sciences Section, Academy of Romanian Scientists, 050085 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Urology, “Prof. Dr. Theodor Burghele” Hospital, 050653 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Gina Gheorghe
- “Prof. Dr. Theodor Burghele” Clinical Hospital, University of Medicine and Pharmacy Carol Davila, 050474 Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Gastroenterology, Clinical Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, 105402 Bucharest, Romania
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3
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Ivanics T, Wallace D, Abreu P, Claasen MPAW, Callaghan C, Cowling T, Walker K, Heaton N, Mehta N, Sapisochin G, van der Meulen J. Survival After Liver Transplantation: An International Comparison Between the United States and the United Kingdom in the Years 2008-2016. Transplantation 2022; 106:1390-1400. [PMID: 34753895 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0000000000003978] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Compared with the United States, risk-adjusted mortality in the United Kingdom has historically been worse in the first 90 d following liver transplantation (LT) and better thereafter. In the last decade, there has been considerable change in the practice of LT internationally, but no contemporary large-scale international comparison of posttransplant outcomes has been conducted. This study aimed to determine disease-specific short- and long-term mortality of LT recipients in the United States and the United Kingdom. METHODS This retrospective international multicenter cohort study analyzed adult (≥18 y) first-time LT recipients between January 2, 2008, and December 31, 2016, using the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing and the UK Transplant Registry databases. Time-dependent Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) comparing disease-specific risk-adjusted mortality in the first 90 d post-LT, between 90 d and 1 y, and between 1 and 5 y. RESULTS Forty-two thousand eight hundred seventy-four US and 4950 UK LT recipients were included. The main LT indications in the United States and the United Kingdom were hepatocellular carcinoma (25.4% and 24.9%, respectively) and alcohol-related liver disease (20.3% and 27.1%, respectively). There were no differences in mortality during the first 90 d post-LT (reference: United States; HR, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-1.12). However, between 90 d and 1 y (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.59-0.85) and 1 and 5 y (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.63-0.81]) the United Kingdom had lower mortality. The mortality differences between 1 and 5 y were most marked in hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.58-0.88) and alcohol-related liver disease patients (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.45-0.89). CONCLUSIONS Risk-adjusted mortality in the United States and the United Kingdom was similar in the first 90 d post-LT but better in the United Kingdom thereafter. International comparisons of LT may highlight differences in healthcare delivery and help benchmarking by identifying modifiable factors that can facilitate improved global outcomes in LT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tommy Ivanics
- Division of General Surgery, Multi-organ Transplant Program, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Surgery, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, MI
| | - David Wallace
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Nephrology and Transplantation, Guys and St Thomas' National Health Service Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Phillipe Abreu
- Division of General Surgery, Multi-organ Transplant Program, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Marco P A W Claasen
- Division of General Surgery, Multi-organ Transplant Program, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Surgery, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Chris Callaghan
- Department of Nephrology and Transplantation, Guys and St Thomas' National Health Service Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas Cowling
- Institute of Liver Studies, King's College Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kate Walker
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Nigel Heaton
- Institute of Liver Studies, King's College Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Neil Mehta
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
| | - Gonzalo Sapisochin
- Division of General Surgery, Multi-organ Transplant Program, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Jan van der Meulen
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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Moore LP, Weimer DL. The Geography of Life and Death: Evidence and Values in the Evolution of U.S. Liver Transplant Rules. WORLD MEDICAL & HEALTH POLICY 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/wmh3.409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
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5
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Bittermann T, Dwinnells K, Chadha S, Wolf MS, Olthoff KM, Serper M. Low Health Literacy Is Associated With Frailty and Reduced Likelihood of Liver Transplant Listing: A Prospective Cohort Study. Liver Transpl 2020; 26:1409-1421. [PMID: 32567232 PMCID: PMC8809114 DOI: 10.1002/lt.25830] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2020] [Revised: 06/11/2020] [Accepted: 06/13/2020] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
The effect of low health literacy (HL) on outcomes in end-stage liver disease (ESLD) is largely unknown. The association of low HL on clinical outcomes was investigated in a prospective cohort of outpatients with ESLD undergoing liver transplantation (LT) evaluation. From 2014 to 2017, 276 patients underwent LT evaluation with assessments of liver disease severity, medical and psychosocial comorbidities, physical frailty, and malnutrition. Literacy was measured with the Newest Vital Sign, a brief validated assessment. Multivariate models assessed relationships between HL and clinical outcomes adjusting for clinical and psychosocial variables. The median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-sodium score of the study sample was 15 (interquartile range, 11-19), 71 (25.7%) of candidates were frail, 117 (42.4%) had malnutrition, 151 (54.7%) had hepatic encephalopathy, 104 (37.7%) had low HL, and 85 (39.2%) had marginal or poor social support. Adjusting for education level, socioeconomic factors, and severity of illness, low HL was independently associated with physical frailty (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-8.59; P = 0.004) and not being wait-listed (aOR 1.96; 95% CI, 1.03-3.75; P = 0.04). Strong social support attenuated the relationship between low HL and not being wait-listed (aOR, 1.58; 95% CI, 0.74-3.36; P = 0.24). Low HL is common and a largely unrecognized risk factor for poor health outcomes among patients with ESLD. Patient-oriented infrastructure and support are needed at the health system level to ensure all patients can successfully navigate the complex process of LT evaluation and wait-listing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Therese Bittermann
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA;,Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Kristen Dwinnells
- Nutrition Counseling and Services, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Sakshum Chadha
- Renal-Electrolyte and Hypertension Division, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Michael S. Wolf
- Division of General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL,Center for Applied Health Research on Aging, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL
| | - Kim M. Olthoff
- Division of Transplant Surgery, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Marina Serper
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA;,Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
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Brahmbhatt M, Prenner S, Bittermann T. Liver Transplantation for Hepatic Epithelioid Hemangioendothelioma Is Facilitated by Exception Points With Acceptable Long-term Outcomes. Transplantation 2020; 104:1187-1192. [PMID: 31577674 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0000000000002982] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hepatic epithelioid hemangioendothelioma (HEHE) is a rare vascular tumor with a high mortality rate. HEHE is now a formally recognized indication for exception point priority in the United States under the new National Liver Review Board. The role of liver transplantation (LT) and exception point waitlist priority in the United States for patients with HEHE remains understudied. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study using the United Network for Organ Sharing transplant database. From February 27, 2002 to January 31, 2018, 131 adults waitlisted for LT with HEHE were identified by free-text entry. RESULTS Exception point applications were submitted for 91.6% (120/131) of patients. All patients with fully reviewed applications received exception points at least once during waitlisting, and 85% (103/120) upon first submission. Among the 88 patients transplanted, median model for end-stage liver disease score at LT was 7 ((interquartile range [IQR]: 6-11) and waiting time 78.5 days (IQR: 29.5-237.5). Unadjusted post-LT survival of HEHE recipients at 1-, 3-, and 5-years from LT was 88.6%, 78.9%, and 77.2%. Unadjusted post-LT patient and graft survival of HEHE patients was not different from patients with hepatocellular carcinoma within Milan receiving exception point priority (P = 0.08). An increased rate of graft failure due to hepatic artery thrombosis ≤14 days from initial LT was observed in HEHE versus non-HEHE patients (4.6% versus 0.5%). CONCLUSIONS The majority of HEHE recipients receive exception points at a universal approval rate allowing prompt access to deceased donor LT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mihir Brahmbhatt
- Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Stacey Prenner
- Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Therese Bittermann
- Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.,Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA
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7
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Coelho GR, Praciano AM, Viana GNR, Lima CA, Feitosa Neto BA, Garcia JHP. Outcomes of Liver Transplant Recipients With Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Exception: Single-Center Experience in the Northeast of Brazil. Transplant Proc 2018; 50:1428-1430. [PMID: 29880366 DOI: 10.1016/j.transproceed.2018.03.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2016] [Revised: 11/08/2016] [Accepted: 03/01/2018] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception policy in liver transplantation is based on symptoms and clinical conditions not included in the calculated MELD score. Therefore, patients with chronic liver disease, like refractory ascites, chronic encephalopathy, recurrent cholangitis, and refractory pruritus, may benefit with extra points. The objective of this study was to establish the profile of the patients submitted to liver transplantation with MELD exceptions based on symptoms in the University Hospital Walter Cantídio, Ceara, Brazil, between the years of 2012 and 2015, analyzing donor and recipient data, with special attention to patients with refractory ascites and recurrent encephalopathy, including survival rates. The results demonstrated acceptable survival rates for MELD exception patients (78.4% in 3 years), showing that maybe this allocation criterion should be maintained, or even expanded.
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Affiliation(s)
- G R Coelho
- Department of Surgery, Liver Transplant Unit of Federal University of Ceará, Brazil.
| | | | | | - C A Lima
- Liver Transplant Unit of Federal University of Ceará, Ceará, Brazil
| | - B A Feitosa Neto
- Liver Transplant Unit of Federal University of Ceará, Ceará, Brazil
| | - J H P Garcia
- Department of Surgery, Liver Transplant Unit of Federal University of Ceará, Brazil
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8
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9
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Murken DR, Peng AW, Aufhauser DD, Abt PL, Goldberg DS, Levine MH. Same policy, different impact: Center-level effects of share 35 liver allocation. Liver Transpl 2017; 23:741-750. [PMID: 28407441 PMCID: PMC5494984 DOI: 10.1002/lt.24769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2016] [Accepted: 03/25/2017] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Early studies of national data suggest that the Share 35 allocation policy increased liver transplants without compromising posttransplant outcomes. Changes in center-specific volumes and practice patterns in response to the national policy change are not well characterized. Understanding center-level responses to Share 35 is crucial for optimizing the policy and constructing effective future policy revisions. Data from the United Network for Organ Sharing were analyzed to compare center-level volumes of allocation-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (aMELD) ≥ 35 transplants before and after policy implementation. There was significant center-level variation in the number and proportion of aMELD ≥ 35 transplants performed from the pre- to post-Share 35 period; 8 centers accounted for 33.7% of the total national increase in aMELD ≥ 35 transplants performed in the 2.5-year post-Share 35 period, whereas 25 centers accounted for 65.0% of the national increase. This trend correlated with increased listing at these centers of patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≥ 35 at the time of initial listing. These centers did not overrepresent the total national volume of liver transplants. Comparison of post-Share 35 aMELD to calculated time-of-transplant (TOT) laboratory MELD scores showed that only 69.6% of patients transplanted with aMELD ≥ 35 maintained a calculated laboratory MELD ≥ 35 at the TOT. In conclusion, Share 35 increased transplantation of aMELD ≥ 35 recipients on a national level, but the policy asymmetrically impacted practice patterns and volumes of a subset of centers. Longer-term data are necessary to assess outcomes at centers with markedly increased volumes of high-MELD transplants after Share 35. Liver Transplantation 23 741-750 2017 AASLD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Douglas R. Murken
- Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Allison W. Peng
- Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
| | - David D. Aufhauser
- Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Peter L. Abt
- Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
- Department of Surgery, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA
| | - David S. Goldberg
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Matthew H. Levine
- Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
- Department of Surgery, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA
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10
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11
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Elwir S, Lake J. Current Status of Liver Allocation in the United States. Gastroenterol Hepatol (N Y) 2016; 12:166-170. [PMID: 27231445 PMCID: PMC4872844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
The liver transplant allocation system is currently based upon the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and allocates organs preferentially to patients with the highest scores (ie, the sickest patients) within a defined geographic unit. In addition, certain patient populations, such as patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and portopulmonary hypertension, receive MELD exception points to account for their increased waitlist mortality, which is not reflected by their MELD score. Significant geographic variation in the access to liver transplantation exists throughout the United States. Both the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network Board of Directors and the Health Resources and Services Administration have determined these geographic disparities to be unacceptable. The liver transplant community has worked to develop methods to reduce these geographic disparities and to reexamine how MELD exception points are granted to certain patient populations. As a result, numerous policy changes have been adopted throughout the years that have broadened the sharing of organs through wider geographic sharing. Despite all of these changes, variation in access to liver transplantation continues to exist, and, thus, the liver transplant community continues to examine new ways to address geographic disparities. This paper reviews several of the key changes to the liver allocation system that have occurred since the implementation of MELD allocation in 2002 and provides an overview of potential changes to the system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saleh Elwir
- Dr Elwir is a gastroenterology and hepatology fellow and Dr Lake is a professor of medicine in the Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Dr Lake is also the executive medical director of the solid organ transplant program at the University of Minnesota
| | - John Lake
- Dr Elwir is a gastroenterology and hepatology fellow and Dr Lake is a professor of medicine in the Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Dr Lake is also the executive medical director of the solid organ transplant program at the University of Minnesota
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12
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Gilroy R, Bucuvalas J. Share 35 has us too wary of strangers bearing gifts. Liver Transpl 2016; 22:159-60. [PMID: 26663509 DOI: 10.1002/lt.24381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2015] [Accepted: 12/08/2015] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Richard Gilroy
- Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE
| | - John Bucuvalas
- Division of Gastroenterology and Nutrition, Children's Hospital Research Foundation, Cincinnati, OH
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13
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Fernandez H, Weber J, Barnes K, Wright L, Levy M. Financial Impact of Liver Sharing and Organ Procurement Organizations' Experience With Share 35: Implications for National Broader Sharing. Am J Transplant 2016; 16:287-91. [PMID: 26372681 DOI: 10.1111/ajt.13436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2015] [Revised: 06/11/2015] [Accepted: 06/24/2015] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
The Share 35 policy for organ allocation, which was adopted in June 2013, allocates livers regionally for candidates with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores of 35 or greater. The authors analyzed the costs resulting from the increased movement of allografts related to this new policy. Using a sample of nine organ procurement organizations, representing 17% of the US population and 19% of the deceased donors in 2013, data were obtained on import and export costs before Share 35 implementation (June 15, 2012, to June 14, 2013) and after Share 35 implementation (June 15, 2013, to June 14, 2014). Results showed that liver import rates increased 42%, with an increased cost of 51%, while export rates increased 112%, with an increased cost of 127%. When the costs of importing and exporting allografts were combined, the total change in costs for all nine organ procurement organizations was $11 011 321 after Share 35 implementation. Extrapolating these costs nationally resulted in an increased yearly cost of $68 820 756 by population or $55 056 605 by number of organ donors. Any alternative allocation proposal needs to account for the financial implications to the transplant infrastructure.
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Affiliation(s)
- H Fernandez
- Baylor All Saints Medical Center, Fort Worth, TX
| | - J Weber
- Center of Organ Recovery and Education, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - K Barnes
- Southwest Transplant Alliance, Dallas, TX
| | - L Wright
- Southwest Transplant Alliance, Dallas, TX
| | - M Levy
- Baylor All Saints Medical Center, Fort Worth, TX
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14
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Massie AB, Chow EKH, Wickliffe CE, Luo X, Gentry SE, Mulligan DC, Segev DL. Early changes in liver distribution following implementation of Share 35. Am J Transplant 2015; 15:659-67. [PMID: 25693474 PMCID: PMC6116537 DOI: 10.1111/ajt.13099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 97] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2014] [Revised: 09/26/2014] [Accepted: 10/01/2014] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
In June 2013, a change to the liver waitlist priority algorithm was implemented. Under Share 35, regional candidates with MELD ≥ 35 receive higher priority than local candidates with MELD < 35. We compared liver distribution and mortality in the first 12 months of Share 35 to an equivalent time period before. Under Share 35, new listings with MELD ≥ 35 increased slightly from 752 (9.2% of listings) to 820 (9.7%, p = 0.3), but the proportion of deceased-donor liver transplants (DDLTs) allocated to recipients with MELD ≥ 35 increased from 23.1% to 30.1% (p < 0.001). The proportion of regional shares increased from 18.9% to 30.4% (p < 0.001). Sharing of exports was less clustered among a handful of centers (Gini coefficient decreased from 0.49 to 0.34), but there was no evidence of change in CIT (p = 0.8). Total adult DDLT volume increased from 4133 to 4369, and adjusted odds of discard decreased by 14% (p = 0.03). Waitlist mortality decreased by 30% among patients with baseline MELD > 30 (SHR = 0.70, p < 0.001) with no change for patients with lower baseline MELD (p = 0.9). Posttransplant length-of-stay (p = 0.2) and posttransplant mortality (p = 0.9) remained unchanged. In the first 12 months, Share 35 was associated with more transplants, fewer discards, and lower waitlist mortality, but not at the expense of CIT or early posttransplant outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- A B Massie
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
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15
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Goldberg DS, Olthoff KM. Standardizing MELD Exceptions: Current Challenges and Future Directions. CURRENT TRANSPLANTATION REPORTS 2014; 1:232-237. [PMID: 25530936 PMCID: PMC4267762 DOI: 10.1007/s40472-014-0027-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
Since MELD-based allocation was implemented in 2002, a system of exception points has been in place in order to award increased waitlist priority to those patients whose severity of illness or risk of complications are not captured by the MELD score. These exceptions, categorized as standardized and non-standardized, have been used with increasing frequency over time. Several challenges to the exception point system have emerged, including lack of standardization in the criteria used to approve such exceptions, geographic variability in the use and approval of such exceptions, and limited evidence base to support certain exceptions. Herein, we summarize the current implementation of exception points, the challenges facing the transplant community, and suggestions for improving and standardizing the current exception point system.
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Affiliation(s)
- David S. Goldberg
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania
- Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania
| | - Kim M. Olthoff
- Division of Transplant Surgery, Department of Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania
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Abstract
The success of liver transplantation in the past three decades as a life-saving procedure for patients with end-stage liver disease has led to the ever-increasing disparity between the demands for liver transplantation and the supply of donor liver organs. Donor allocation and distribution remains a challenge and a moral issue as to how these organs can be equitably distributed. This article reviews the evolution of the liver allocation policy and discusses in detail the challenges clinicians face today in this area of medicine.
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17
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Goldberg DS, French B, Forde KA, Groeneveld PW, Bittermann T, Backus L, Halpern SD, Kaplan DE. Association of distance from a transplant center with access to waitlist placement, receipt of liver transplantation, and survival among US veterans. JAMA 2014; 311:1234-43. [PMID: 24668105 PMCID: PMC4586113 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2014.2520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Centralization of specialized health care services such as organ transplantation and bariatric surgery is advocated to improve quality, increase efficiency, and reduce cost. The effect of increased travel on access and outcomes from these services is not fully understood. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between distance from a Veterans Affairs (VA) transplant center (VATC) and access to being waitlisted for liver transplantation, actually having a liver transplant, and mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective study of veterans meeting liver transplantation eligibility criteria from January 1, 2003, until December 31, 2010, using data from the Veterans Health Administration's integrated, national, electronic medical record linked to Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was being waitlisted for transplantation at a VATC. Secondary outcomes included being waitlisted at any transplant center, undergoing a transplantation, and survival. RESULTS From 2003-2010, 50,637 veterans were classified as potentially eligible for transplant; 2895 (6%) were waitlisted and 1418 of those were waitlisted (49%) at 1 of the 5 VATCs. Of 3417 veterans receiving care at a VA hospital located within 100 miles from a VATC, 244 (7.1%) were waitlisted at a VATC and 372 (10.9%) at any transplant center (VATC and non-VATCs). Of 47,219 veterans receiving care at a VA hospital located more than 100 miles from a VATC, 1174 (2.5%) were waitlisted at a VATC and 2523 (5.3%) at any transplant center (VATC and non-VATCs). In multivariable models, increasing distance to closest VATC was associated with significantly lower odds of being waitlisted at a VATC (odds ratio [OR], 0.91 [95% CI, 0.89-0.93] for each doubling in distance) or any transplant center (OR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.92-0.96] for each doubling in distance). For example, a veteran living 25 miles from a VATC would have a 7.4% (95% CI, 6.6%-8.1%) adjusted probability of being waitlisted, whereas a veteran 100 miles from a VATC would have a 6.2% (95% CI, 5.7%-6.6%) adjusted probability. In adjusted models, increasing distance from a VATC was associated with significantly lower transplantation rates (subhazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.98 for each doubling in distance). There was significantly increased mortality among waitlisted veterans from the time of first hepatic decompensation event in multivariable survival models (hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04 for each doubling in distance). For example, a waitlisted veteran living 25 miles from a VATC would have a 62.9% (95% CI, 59.1%-66.1%) 5-year adjusted probability of survival from first hepatic decompensation event compared with a 59.8% (95% CI, 56.3%-63.1%) 5-year adjusted probability of survival for a veteran living 100 miles from a VATC. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among VA patients meeting eligibility criteria for liver transplantation, greater distance from a VATC or any transplant center was associated with lower likelihood of being waitlisted, receiving a liver transplant, and greater likelihood of death. The relationship between these findings and centralizing specialized care deserves further investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- David S Goldberg
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia2Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia3Leonard Davis Institute of Healt
| | - Benjamin French
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia3Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
| | - Kimberly A Forde
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia2Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
| | - Peter W Groeneveld
- Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia4Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia5Center for Health Equity Research and Promotion, Philadelphia VA Medical Center, Philadel
| | | | - Lisa Backus
- Department of Veterans Affairs/Office of Public Health, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - Scott D Halpern
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia3Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia8Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Criti
| | - David E Kaplan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia9Gastroenterology Section, Philadelphia VA Medical Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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Goldberg DS, Makar G, Bittermann T, French B. Center variation in the use of nonstandardized model for end-stage liver disease exception points. Liver Transpl 2013; 19:1330-42. [PMID: 24039090 DOI: 10.1002/lt.23732] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2013] [Accepted: 08/12/2013] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is an imperfect prognosticator of waitlist dropout, so transplant centers may apply for exception points to increase a waitlist candidate's priority on the waitlist. Exception applications are categorized as recognized exceptional diagnoses (REDs; eg, hepatocellular carcinoma) and non-REDs (eg, cholangitis). Although prior work has demonstrated regional variation in the use of exceptions, no work has examined the between-center variability. We analyzed all new waitlist candidates from February 27, 2002 to June 3, 2011 to explore variations in the use of non-REDs, for which no strict exception criteria exist. There were 58,641 new waitlist candidates, and 4356 (7.4%) applied for a non-RED exception. The number of applications increased steadily over time, as did the approval rates for such applications: from <50% in 2002 to nearly 75% in 2010. When we adjusted for patient factors, there was significant variability (P < 0.001) in the use of non-RED exceptions in 8 of 11 United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) regions and in the approval of these exceptions in 6 of 11 UNOS regions. The variability in the use and approval of non-REDs was clinically significant: waitlist candidates with approved exceptions were significantly more likely to undergo transplantation (68.3% versus 53.4%, P < 0.001) and were less likely to be removed for death or clinical deterioration (10.4% versus 16.2%, P < 0.001). Increased median MELD score at transplantation within a donor service area was the only center factor associated with increased odds of applying for exceptions, while no center factors were associated with having non-RED exceptions approved. Further work is needed to identify other sources of variation to ensure the appropriate and equitable use of non-RED exceptions.
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Affiliation(s)
- David S Goldberg
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA; Clinical Center for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA
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GOLDBERG DAVIDS, FALLON MICHAELB. Model for end-stage liver disease-based organ allocation: managing the exceptions to the rules. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2013; 11:452-3. [PMID: 23416221 PMCID: PMC5976500 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2013.02.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- DAVID S. GOLDBERG
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - MICHAEL B. FALLON
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Department of Medicine, University of Texas Health Science Center-Houston Houston, Texas
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