Childhood Obesity and Device-Measured Sedentary Behavior: An Instrumental Variable Analysis of 3,864 Mother-Offspring Pairs

Using Instrumental Variables to Measure Causation over Time in Cross-Lagged Panel Models

Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are commonly used to estimate causal influences between two variables with repeated assessments. The lagged effects in a CLPM depend on the time interval between assessments, eventually becoming undetectable at longer intervals. To address this limitation, we incorporate instrumental variables (IVs) into the CLPM with two study waves and two variables. Doing so enables estimation of both the lagged (i.e., "distal") effects and the bidirectional cross-sectional (i.e., "proximal") effects at each wave. The distal effects reflect Granger-causal influences across time, which decay with increasing time intervals. The proximal effects capture causal influences that accrue over time and can help infer causality when the distal effects become undetectable at longer intervals. Significant proximal effects, with a negligible distal effect, would imply that the time interval is too long to estimate a lagged effect at that time interval using the standard CLPM. Through simulations and an empirical application, we demonstrate the impact of time intervals on causal inference in the CLPM and present modeling strategies to detect causal influences regardless of the time interval in a study. Furthermore, to motivate empirical applications of the proposed model, we highlight the utility and limitations of using genetic variables as IVs in large-scale panel studies.

Prenatal and postnatal correlates of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity in midlife: evidence from the 1970 British Cohort Study

Background

It is hypothesised that lifelong physical activity behaviours are established in early life, however there is minimal, and contradictory, evidence examining prenatal and postnatal factors in relation to adulthood physical activity. We investigated associations between prospectively ascertained prenatal/postnatal factors and device-measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in midlife.

Methods

Analyses included 5011 participants from the 1970 British Cohort Study, a birth cohort study of individuals born within the same week. At birth, the following factors were ascertained: socioeconomic position (SEP), maternal age, number of previous pregnancies, maternal smoking, maternal diabetes, gestational age, birth weight, breastfeeding status and infant health concerns. MVPA was captured at age 46 with a thigh-worn accelerometer device following a 24-hour protocol over 7 days.

Results

In sex-adjusted models, lower SEP (−6.7 min/day (95% CI: −9.0 to –4.4) in those with a partly or unskilled paternal occupation), younger maternal age (0.4 min/day (0.2 to 0.5) per additional year of maternal age), maternal smoking during pregnancy (−2.5 min/day (−4.0 to –1.0)) and post-term gestational age (−7.4 min/day (−11.5 to –3.4); boys only) were associated with lower MVPA at age 46. In the mutually adjusted model, associations did not change but there was some evidence that birth weight may also be associated with MVPA levels.

Conclusions

SEP, maternal age, maternal smoking, post-term birth in boys and birth weight were associated with MVPA in midlife, indicating that midlife physical activity behaviours may be partially established at birth. Early interventions in disadvantaged environments may have a positive impact on physical activity throughout the life course.

High-intensity activity is more strongly associated with metabolic health in children compared to sedentary time: a cross-sectional study of the I.Family cohort

Background

Physical activity (PA) during childhood is important for preventing future metabolic syndrome (MetS). To examine the relationship between PA and MetS in more detail, accurate measures of PA are needed. Previous studies have only utilized a small part of the information available from accelerometer measured PA. This study investigated the association between measured PA and MetS in children with a new method for data processing and analyses that enable more detailed interpretation of PA intensity level.

Methods

The association between PA pattern and risk factors related to MetS was investigated in a cross- sectional sample of children (n = 2592, mean age 10.9 years, 49.4% male) participating in the European multicenter I. Family study. The risk factors examined include body mass index, blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, insulin resistance and a combined risk factor score (MetS score). PA was measured by triaxial accelerometers and raw data was processed using the 10 Hz frequency extended method (FEM). The PA output was divided into an intensity spectrum and the association with MetS risk factors was analyzed by partial least squares regression.

Results

PA patterns differed between the European countries investigated, with Swedish children being most active and Italian children least active. Moderate intensity physical activity was associated with lower insulin resistance (R² = 2.8%), while vigorous intensity physical activity was associated with lower body mass index (R² = 3.6%), MetS score (R² = 3.1%) and higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (R² = 2.3%). PA of all intensities was associated with lower systolic- and diastolic blood pressure, although the associations were weaker than for the other risk factors (R² = 1.5% and R² = 1.4%). However, the multivariate analysis implies that the entire PA pattern must be considered. The main difference in PA was observed between normal weight and overweight children.

Conclusions

The present study suggests a greater importance of more PA corresponding to an intensity of at least brisk walking with inclusion of high-intense exercise, rather than a limited time spent sedentary, in the association to metabolic health in children. The methods of data processing and statistical analysis enabled accurate analysis and interpretation of the health benefits of high intensity PA that have not been shown previously.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-021-01156-1.