Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario

Climate change effect on the widely distributed Palearctic plant bug species (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae)

Insects are poikilothermic organisms and temperature increase usually accelerates their development rates, population and distribution area growth. Therefore, it is assumed that global warming can be beneficial for the pests and other widespread species at least in the relatively cool temperate zones. However, climate change's effect on the widespread species in the Palearctic remains poorly studied. This work was performed on three plant bug species (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae), at present inhabiting Europe and Asia. Liocoris tripustulatus is known from the Western Palearctic, Lygocoris pabulinus occupies the territories from Western Europe to South Asia, Lygus punctatus is distributed from Northern Europe to the Far East. In this paper, it is tested whether temperature rise is positively connected with the area of preferred climatic conditions for those species, and explores the particular climatic variables which can be limiting for the distribution of those species. Maxent software was used for the environmental niche modeling and to find the variables with significant contribution to the climatic models for the studied species. Based on those models, areas with preferred climatic conditions over different periods were calculated in QGIS. Principal component analysis and logistic regression were performed to find the variables highly contributing to the differences between the species. The results contradict the assumption that temperature growth alone can be a predictor for the widespread species and pest distribution range change. All species differ in suitable climatic conditions and their area dynamics in time, and the temperature affects each species differently. Only Liocoris tripustulatus might significantly expand its distribution area by 2070 due to the climate change. The areas in Asia and above the polar circle will be more suitable by that time for all three species than now. However, conditions in Europe might be less suitable for Lygocoris pabulinus and Lygus punctatus in the future. Both, temperature and precipitation variables, can be important for shaping distribution of Liocoris tripustulatus and Lygocoris pabulinus. Mean annual temperature and temperature in winter, most probably, limit the distribution of at least Liocoris tripsutulatus and Lygus punctatus, but changes in this variable affect those two species differently.

Life history parameters of Bemisia tabaci MED (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) in the present and future climate of central Europe, predicted by physically realistic climatic chamber simulation

Whiteflies of the Bemisia tabaci species complex are among the most damaging insect pests in agriculture worldwide, causing damage by feeding on crop plants and by vectoring plant viruses. The species complex consists of over 35 cryptic species that differ in many aspects of their biology including the optimal environment, geographic distribution, and host range. Global warming and associated climate change resulting from human activities is expected to contribute to biological invasions. Bemisia tabaci species show fast adaptability to changes in agroecosystems and have a long record of biological invasions. Climate change driven increase in B. tabaci importance in agricultural systems of Europe has been predicted, but so far not experimentally tested. The present study evaluates the development of B. tabaci MED (=Mediterranean) in a climatic chamber simulation of the future climate in Luxembourg, chosen as a representative region for the Central Europe. Future climate predictions for the period 2061-2070 were derived from a multimodel ensemble of physically consistent regional climatic models. Results show a 40% shorter development time of this important pest in future climatic conditions, with an increase in fecundity by a third, and insignificant difference in mortality. Accelerated development, combined with its already established year-round presence in European greenhouses and predicted northward expansion of outdoor tomato production in Europe, means faster population build-up at the beginning of the outdoor cropping season with the potential of reaching economic importance. Benefits of simulating hourly diurnal cycle of physically consistent meteorological variables versus previous experiments are discussed.

Predicting Climate Change Effects on the Potential Distribution of Two Invasive Cryptic Species of the Bemisia tabaci Species Complex in China

Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) are two invasive cryptic species of the Bemisia tabaci species complex (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) that cause serious damage to agricultural and horticultural crops worldwide. To explore the possible impact of climate change on their distribution, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED in China under current and four future climate scenarios, using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, over four time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED were extensive and similar in China under current climatic conditions, while their moderately and highly suitable habitat ranges differed. Under future climate scenarios, the areas of suitable habitat of different levels for MEAM1 and MED were predicted to increase to different degrees. However, the predicted expansion of suitable habitats varied between them, suggesting that these invasive cryptic species respond differently to climate change. Our results illustrate the difference in the effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of different cryptic species of B. tabaci and provide insightful information for further forecasting and managing the two invasive cryptic species in China.

Non-linear physiological responses to climate change: the case of Ceratitis capitata distribution and abundance in Europe

Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the life-history strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species’ life-history strategies to temperature.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

Distribution and Genetic Variability of Bemisia tabaci Cryptic Species (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) in Italy

Bemisia tabaci is a key pest of horticultural, fibre and ornamental crops worldwide, primarily as a vector of plant viruses. In Italy, B. tabaci has established since the 1980s-1990s in southern regions as well as in Sicily and Sardinia. Recent reports of infestations in some areas of central Italy prompted a new survey to assess the whitefly distribution in the country as well as to update the species and haplotype composition of the populations present in southern Italy and in the main islands. The survey confirmed that B. tabaci is nowadays established in central Italy even at more northern latitudes than those noticed before. Most of the specimens collected throughout the country belonged to the Mediterranean (MED) species. The MEDQ1 and Q2 haplogroups were prevailing in open-field and greenhouse cultivations, respectively, except in Sardinia where only Q1 specimens were found on a wide range of crops and weeds. Population genetics analyses showed that several MEDQ1 haplotypes currently occur in Italy and their distribution is unrelated to evident temporal and geographic trends, except for a new genetic variant which seems to have originated in Sardinia. The MED species is known to better adapt to insecticide treatments and high temperatures, and its northward spread in Italy may have been favoured by the intensive agricultural practices and steady increase in both winter and summer temperatures occurring in the last few decades. The extensive presence of B. tabaci in Italy proves that a strict surveillance for possible new outbreaks of whitefly-transmitted viruses should be addressed to a range of sites that are expanding northwards.

A nonlinear model for stage-structured population dynamics with nonlocal density-dependent regulation: An application to the fall armyworm moth

The assessment and the management of the risks linked to insect pests can be supported by the use of physiologically-based demographic models. These models are useful in population ecology to simulate the dynamics of stage-structured populations, by means of functions (e.g., development, mortality and fecundity rate functions) realistically representing the nonlinear individuals physiological responses to environmental forcing variables. Since density-dependent responses are important regulating factors in population dynamics, we propose a nonlinear physiologically-based Kolmogorov model describing the dynamics of a stage-structured population in which a time-dependent mortality rate is coupled with a nonlocal density-dependent term. We prove existence and uniqueness of the solution for this resulting highly nonlinear partial differential equation. Then, the equation is discretized by finite volumes in space and semi-implicit backward Euler scheme in time. The model is applied for simulating the population dynamics of the fall armyworm moth (Spodoptera frugiperda), a highly invasive pest threatening agriculture worldwide.

Simulation of leaf curl disease dynamics in chili for strategic management options

Leaf curl, a whitefly-borne begomovirus disease, is the cause of frequent epidemic in chili. In the present study, transmission parameters involved in tripartite interaction are estimated to simulate disease dynamics in a population dynamics model framework. Epidemic is characterized by a rapid conversion rate of healthy host population into infectious type. Infection rate as basic reproduction number, R₀ = 13.54, has indicated a high rate of virus transmission. Equilibrium population of infectious host and viruliferous vector are observed to be sensitive to the immigration parameter. A small increase in immigration rate of viruliferous vector increased the population of both infectious host and viruliferous vector. Migrant viruliferous vectors, acquisition, and transmission rates as major parameters in the model indicate leaf curl epidemic is predominantly a vector -mediated process. Based on underlying principles of temperature influence on vector population abundance and transmission parameters, spatio-temporal pattern of disease risk predicted is noted to correspond with leaf curl distribution pattern in India. Temperature in the range of 15–35 °C plays an important role in epidemic as both vector population and virus transmission are influenced by temperature. Assessment of leaf curl dynamics would be a useful guide to crop planning and evolution of efficient management strategies.

Population Dynamics of Whiteflies and Associated Viruses in South America: Research Progress and Perspectives

Simple Summary

Whiteflies are one of the most important and widespread pests in the world. In South America, the currently most important species occurring are Bemisia afer,Trialeurodes vaporariorum, and the cryptic species Middle East-Asia Minor 1, Mediterranean, and New World, from Bemisia tabaci complex. The present review compiles information from several studies conducted in South America regarding these insects, providing data related to the dynamics and distribution of whiteflies, the associated viruses, and the management strategies to keep whiteflies under the economic damage threshold.

Abstract

By having an extensive territory and suitable climate conditions, South America is one of the most important agricultural regions in the world, providing different kinds of vegetable products to different regions of the world. However, such favorable conditions for plant production also allow the development of several pests, increasing production costs. Among them, whiteflies (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) stand out for their potential for infesting several crops and for being resistant to insecticides, having high rates of reproduction and dispersal, besides their efficient activity as virus vectors. Currently, the most important species occurring in South America are Bemisia afer, Trialeurodes vaporariorum, and the cryptic species Middle East-Asia Minor 1, Mediterranean, and New World, from Bemisia tabaci complex. In this review, a series of studies performed in South America were compiled in an attempt to unify the advances that have been developed in whitefly management in this continent. At first, a background of the current whitefly distribution in South American countries as well as factors affecting them are shown, followed by a background of the whitefly transmitted viruses in South America, addressing their location and association with whiteflies in each country. Afterwards, a series of management strategies are proposed to be implemented in South American fields, including cultural practices and biological and chemical control, finalizing with a section containing future perspectives and directions for further research.

Feeding behavior, life history, and virus transmission ability of Bemisia tabaci Mediterranean species (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under elevated CO2

The continuous rise of CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere is reducing plant nutritional quality for herbivores and indirectly affects their performance. The whitefly (Bemisia tabaci, Gennadius) is a major worldwide pest of agricultural crops causing significant yield losses. This study investigated the plant-mediated indirect effects of elevated CO₂ on the feeding behavior and life history of B. tabaci Mediterranean species. Eggplants were grown under elevated and ambient CO₂ concentrations for 3 weeks after which plants were either used to monitor the feeding behavior of whiteflies using the Electrical Penetration Graph technique or to examine fecundity and fertility of whiteflies. Plant leaf carbon, nitrogen, phenols and protein contents were also analyzed for each treatment. Bemisia tabaci feeding on plants exposed to elevated CO₂ showed a longer phloem ingestion and greater fertility compared to those exposed to ambient CO₂ suggesting that B. tabaci is capable of compensating for the plant nutritional deficit. Additionally, this study looked at the transmission of the virus Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (Begomovirus) by B. tabaci exposing source and receptor tomato plants to ambient or elevated CO₂ levels before or after virus transmission tests. Results indicate that B. tabaci transmitted the virus at the same rate independent of the CO₂ levels and plant treatment. Therefore, we conclude that B. tabaci Mediterranean species prevails over the difficulties that changes in CO₂ concentrations may cause and it is predicted that under future climate change conditions, B. tabaci would continue to be considered a serious threat for agriculture worldwide.

Development and calibration of a model for the potential establishment and impact of Aedes albopictus in Europe

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the most invasive disease vectors worldwide. The species is a competent vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika viruses and other severe parasites and pathogens threatening human health. The capacity of this mosquito to colonize and establish in new areas (including temperate regions) is enhanced by its ability of producing diapausing eggs that survive relatively cold winters. The main drivers of population dynamics for this mosquito are water and air temperature and photoperiod. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model that predicts the potential distribution, abundance and activity of Asian tiger mosquito in Europe. The model includes a comprehensive description of: i) the individual life-history strategies, including diapause, ii) the influence of weather-driven individual physiological responses on population dynamics and iii) the density-dependent regulation of larval mortality rate. The model is calibrated using field data from several locations along an altitudinal gradient in the Italian Alps, which enabled accurate prediction of cold temperature effects on population abundance, including identification of conditions that prevent overwintering of the species. Model predictions are consistent with the most updated information on species' presence and absence. Predicted population abundance shows a clear south-north decreasing gradient. A similar yet less evident pattern in the activity of the species is also predicted. The model represents a valuable tool for the development of strategies aimed at the management of Ae. albopictus and for the implementation of effective control measures against vector-borne diseases in Europe.

A novel approach for exploring climatic factors limiting current pest distributions: A case study of Bemisia tabaci in north-west Europe and assessment of potential future establishment in the United Kingdom under climate change

Bemisia tabaci (the tobacco whitefly) is an important agricultural pest of global significance primarily because of its ability to transmit multiple damaging plant viruses. To date, UK outbreaks of the whitefly have been restricted to glasshouses and there are no records of the whitefly establishing outdoors during the summer. This is despite the fact that annual degree-day models (that estimate accumulated warmth over the year above the development threshold), indicate that B. tabaci has the thermal potential for multiple summer generations in the UK. A set of 49 climate indices calculated using the present day climate (1986–2015) were therefore compared between the UK and the south of France, where B. tabaci is able to establish outdoors, to identify the factors limiting its establishment. The number of cold days and nights in summer, as well as the time spent within the whitefly’s optimum temperature range, were most significantly different between the two areas. These indices may impact the development of B. tabaci and offer an explanation for the absence of the whitefly outdoors in the UK during the summer. Further analyses undertaken with climate projections suggest that in a 2–4°C warmer world this pest could pose a risk to outdoor UK crops in July and August. A clear south-north gradient can be demonstrated for these indices. Linking any possible northwards spread of B. tabaci populations outdoors in France with changes in these indices could therefore provide an important indicator of any change in the risks of outdoor populations of this species developing in the UK. The effectiveness of climate indices in pest risk analysis is compellingly demonstrated, and it is recommended that in-depth comparisons of climatic indices between areas of pest presence and absence are conducted in other situations where forecasting the risks of pest establishment are complex and challenging.

Climate model for seasonal variation in Bemisia tabaci using CLIMEX in tomato crops

The whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is considered one of the most important pests for tomato Solanum lycopersicum. The population density of this pest varies throughout the year in response to seasonal variation. Studies of seasonality are important to understand the ecological dynamics and insect population in crops and help to identify which seasons have the best climatic conditions for the growth and development of this insect species. In this research, we used CLIMEX to estimate the seasonal abundance of a species in relation to climate over time and species geographical distribution. Therefore, this research is designed to infer the mechanisms affecting population processes, rather than simply provide an empirical description of field observations based on matching patterns of meteorological data. In this research, we identified monthly suitability for Bemisia tabaci, with the climate models, for 12 commercial tomato crop locations through CLIMEX (version 4.0). We observed that B. tabaci displays seasonality with increased abundance in tomato crops during March, April, May, June, October and November (first year) and during March, April, May, September and October (second year) in all monitored areas. During this period, our model demonstrated a strong agreement between B. tabaci density and CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw), which indicates significant reliability of our model results. Our results may be useful to design sampling and control strategies, in periods and locations when there is high suitability for B. tabaci.

Mapping global risk levels of Bemisia tabaci in areas of suitability for open field tomato cultivation under current and future climates

The whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is a major threat to tomato Solanum lycopersicum and ranks as one of the world's 100 most invasive pests. This is the first study of B. tabaci (Biotype B and Q) global distribution, focusing on risk levels of this invasive pest, in areas projected to be suitable for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation under climate change. This study aims to identify levels of risk of invasive B. tabaci for areas of suitability for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation for the present, 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model, HadGEM2_ES under RCP45. Our results show that 5% of areas optimal for open field S. lycopersicum cultivation are currently at high risk of B. tabaci. Among the optimal areas for S. lycopersicum, the projections for 2050 compared to the current time showed an extension of 180% in areas under high risk, and a shortening of 67 and 27% in areas under medium and low risk of B. tabaci, respectively, while projections for 2070 showed an extension of 164, and a shortening of 49 and 64% under high, medium and low risk, respectively. The basis of these projections is that predicted temperature increases could affect the pest, which has great adaptability to different climate conditions, but could also impose limitations on the growth of S. lycopersicum. These results may be used in designing strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of B. tabaci for open-field tomato crops, and assist the implementation of pest management programs.

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.

A temperature-dependent physiologically based model for the invasive apple snail Pomacea canaliculata

In order to set priorities in management of costly and ecosystem-damaging species, policymakers and managers need accurate predictions not only about where a specific invader may establish but also about its potential abundance at different geographical scales. This is because density or biomass per unit area of an invasive species is a key predictor of the magnitude of environmental and economic impact in the invaded habitat. Here, we present a physiologically based demographic model describing and explaining the population dynamics of a widespread freshwater invader, the golden apple snail Pomacea canaliculata, which is causing severe environmental and economic impacts in invaded wetlands and rice fields in Southeastern Asia and has also been introduced to North America and Europe. The model is based on bio-demographic functions for mortality, development and fecundity rates that are driven by water temperature for the aquatic stages (juveniles and adults) and by air temperature for the aerial egg masses. Our model has been validated against data on the current distribution in South America and Japan, and produced consistent and realistic patterns of reproduction, growth, maturation and mortality under different scenarios in accordance to what is known from real P. canaliculata populations in different regions and climates. The model further shows that P. canaliculata will use two different reproductive strategies (semelparity and iteroparity) within the potential area of establishment, a plasticity that may explain the high invasiveness of this species across a wide range of habitats with different climates. Our results also suggest that densities, and thus the magnitude of environmental and agricultural damage, will be largely different in locations with distinct climatic regimes within the potential area of establishment. We suggest that physiologically based demographic modelling of invasive species will become a valuable tool for invasive species managers.

A landscape genetic analysis of important agricultural pest species in Tunisia: The whitefly Bemisia tabaci

Combining landscape ecology and genetics provides an excellent framework to appreciate pest population dynamics and dispersal. The genetic architectures of many species are always shaped by environmental constraints. Because little is known about the ecological and genetic traits of Tunisian whitefly populations, the main objective of this work is to highlight patterns of biodiversity, genetic structure and migration routes of this pest. We used nuclear microsatellite loci to analyze B. tabaci populations collected from various agricultural areas across the country and we determine their biotype status. Molecular data were subsequently interpreted in an ecological context supplied from a species distribution model to infer habitat suitability and hereafter the potential connection paths between sampling localities. An analysis of landscape resistance to B. tabaci genetic flow was thus applied to take into account habitat suitability, genetic relatedness and functional connectivity of habitats within a varied landscape matrix. We shed light on the occurrence of three geographically delineated genetic groups with high levels of genetic differentiation within each of them. Potential migration corridors of this pest were then established providing significant advances toward the understanding of genetic features and the dynamic dispersal of this pest. This study supports the hypothesis of a long-distance dispersal of B. tabaci followed by infrequent long-term isolations. The Inference of population sources and colonization routes is critical for the design and implementation of accurate management strategies against this pest.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses

Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity.

Prey Preference and Life Table of Amblyseius orientalis on Bemisia tabaci and Tetranychus cinnabarinus

Amblyseius orientalis (Ehara) (Acari: Phytoseiidae) is a native predatory mite species in China. It used to be considered as a specialist predator of spider mites. However, recent studies show it also preys on other small arthropod pests, such as Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae). Experiments were conducted to investigate (1) prey preference of A. orientalis between Tetranychus cinnabarinus (Boisd.) (Acari: Tetranychidae) and B. tabaci, and (2) development, consumption and life table parameters of A. orientalis when reared on T. cinnabarinus, B. tabaci or a mix of both prey species. When preying on different stages of T. cinnabarinus, A. orientalis preferred protonymphs, whereas when preying on different stages of B. tabaci, A. orientalis preferred eggs. When these two most preferred stages were provided together (T. cinnabarinus protonymphs and B. tabaci eggs), A. orientalis randomly selected its prey. Amblyseius orientalis was able to complete its life cycle on B. tabaci eggs, T. cinnabarinus protonymphs, or a mix of both prey. However, its developmental duration was 53.9% and 30.0% longer when reared on B. tabaci eggs than on T. cinnabarinus and a mix of both prey, respectively. In addition, it produced only a few eggs and its intrinsic rate of increase was negative when reared on B. tabaci eggs, which indicates that B. tabaci is not sufficient to maintain A. orientalis population. The intrinsic rates of increase were 0.16 and 0.23 when A. orientalis was fed on the prey mix and T. cinnabarinus, respectively. These results suggest that although B. tabaci is a poor food resource for A. orientalis in comparison to T. cinnabarinus, A. orientalis is able to sustain its population on a mix of both prey. This predatory mite may thus be a potential biological control agent of B. tabaci when this pest co-occurs with the alternative minor pest T. cinnabarinus.

Optimal Strategies for Interception, Detection, and Eradication in Plant Biosecurity

The introduction of invasive species causes damages from the economic and ecological point of view. Interception of plant pests and eradication of the established populations are two management options to prevent or limit the risk posed by an invasive species. Management options generate costs related to the interception at the point of entry, and the detection and eradication of established field populations. Risk managers have to decide how to allocate resources between interception, field detection, containment, and eradication minimizing the expected total costs. In this work is considered an optimization problem aiming at determining the optimal allocation of resources to minimize the expected total costs of the introduction of Bemisia tabaci-transmitted viruses in Europe. The optimization problem takes into account a probabilistic model for the estimation of the percentage of viruliferous insect populations arriving through the trade of commodities, and a population dynamics model describing the process of the vector populations' establishment and spread. The time of field detection of viruliferous insect populations is considered as a random variable. The solution of the optimization problem allows to determine the optimal allocation of the search effort between interception and detection/eradication. The behavior of the search effort as a function of efficacy or search in interception and in detection is then analyzed. The importance of the vector population growth rate and the probability of virus establishment are also considered in the analysis of the optimization problem.

The Importance of Maintaining Protected Zone Status against Bemisia tabaci

The sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) is a major pest of economically important crops worldwide. Both the United Kingdom (UK) and Finland hold Protected Zone status against this invasive pest. As a result B. tabaci entering these countries on plants and plant produce is subjected to a policy of eradication. The impact of B. tabaci entering, and becoming established, is that it is an effective vector of many plant viruses that are not currently found in the protected zones. The Mediterranean species is the most commonly intercepted species of B. tabaci entering both the UK and Finland. The implications of maintaining Protected Zone status are discussed.

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.