Planning for the next pandemic of influenza

The COVID-19 pandemic eroded system support but not social solidarity

While the World was busy mitigating the disastrous health and economic effects of the novel coronavirus, a less direct, but not less concerning peril has largely remained unexplored: the COVID-19 crisis may have disrupted some of the most fundamental social and political relationships in democratic societies. We interviewed samples resembling the national population of Denmark, Hungary, Italy and the US three times: in April, June and December of 2020 (14K observations). We show that multiple (but not all) measures of support for the political system decreased between April and December. Exploiting the panel setup, we demonstrate that within-respondent increases in indicators of pandemic fatigue (specifically, the perceived subjective burden of the pandemic and feelings of anomie) correspond to decreases in system support and increases in extreme anti-systemic attitudes. At the same time, we find no systematic trends in feelings of social solidarity, which are largely unaffected by changes in pandemic burden.

In vivo secondary structural analysis of Influenza A virus genomic RNA

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a respiratory virus that causes epidemics and pandemics. Knowledge of IAV RNA secondary structure in vivo is crucial for a better understanding of virus biology. Moreover, it is a fundament for the development of new RNA-targeting antivirals. Chemical RNA mapping using selective 2'-hydroxyl acylation analyzed by primer extension (SHAPE) coupled with Mutational Profiling (MaP) allows for the thorough examination of secondary structures in low-abundance RNAs in their biological context. So far, the method has been used for analyzing the RNA secondary structures of several viruses including SARS-CoV-2 in virio and in cellulo. Here, we used SHAPE-MaP and dimethyl sulfate mutational profiling with sequencing (DMS-MaPseq) for genome-wide secondary structure analysis of viral RNA (vRNA) of the pandemic influenza A/California/04/2009 (H1N1) strain in both in virio and in cellulo environments. Experimental data allowed the prediction of the secondary structures of all eight vRNA segments in virio and, for the first time, the structures of vRNA5, 7, and 8 in cellulo. We conducted a comprehensive structural analysis of the proposed vRNA structures to reveal the motifs predicted with the highest accuracy. We also performed a base-pairs conservation analysis of the predicted vRNA structures and revealed many highly conserved vRNA motifs among the IAVs. The structural motifs presented herein are potential candidates for new IAV antiviral strategies.

Public Interest in Preventive Measures of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Associated With Timely Issuance of Statewide Stay-at-Home Orders

Introduction:

One method of monitoring public preparedness is through measuring public interest in preventive measures. The objective of this study was to analyze public interest in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) preventive measures and to identify variables associated with timely stay-at-home (SAH) orders issued by governors.

Methods:

State-level search volume was collected from Google Trends. Average preventive measure interest was calculated for the query terms “hand sanitizer,” “hand washing,” “social distancing,” and “COVID testing.” We then calculated the delay in statewide SAH orders from March 1, 2020, to the date of issuance and by-state presidential voting percentage. Bivariate correlations were computed to assess the relationship between interest in preventive measures and SAH order delay.

Results:

The correlation between average preventive measure interest and length of time before the SAH order was placed was −0.47. Average preventive measure interest was also inversely related to voting for a Republican presidential nominee in the 2016 election (R = −0.75), the latter of which was positively associated with longer delays in SAH orders (R = 0.48).

Conclusions:

States with greater public interest in COVID-19 preventive measures were inversely related to governor issuance of timely SAH orders. Increasing public interest in preventive measures may slow the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), by improving preparedness.

Innovative screening tests for COVID-19 in South Korea

Recently, the number of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases has increased remarkably in South Korea, so the triage clinics and emergency departments (ED) are expected to be overcrowded with patients with presumed infection. As of March 21st, there was a total of 8,799 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 102 related deaths in South Korea that was one of the top countries with high incidence rates [1]. This sharp increase in infection is associated with 1) outbreaks in individual provinces, 2) deployment of rapid and aggressive screening tests, 3) dedicated healthcare staffs for virus screening tests, 4) quarantine inspection data transparency and accurate data reporting, and 5) public health lessons from previous Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreaks. This commentary introduces innovative screening tests that are currently used in South Korea for COVID-19, e.g., Drive-Through and Walk-Through tests, and compare the advantages and disadvantages of both methods.

Preparing to respond: Irish nurses' perceptions of preparedness for an influenza pandemic

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this research was to garner opinion on: the concerns of nurses in respect of the key issues that they may face in the event of an influenza pandemic; the perceived impact of an influenza pandemic on these nurses; and the current level of perceived preparedness in their hospital. Of particular significance is the fact that data for this study were gathered from nursing staff during a period when there was a heightened risk of an outbreak.

METHODS

The data for this study were gathered using a structured, self-administered questionnaire, which was distributed to 127 nurses. A response rate of 72% was achieved. The questionnaire was based on the instrument used by Wong et al. in their 2008 study of preparedness for an avian influenza pandemic in Singapore.

RESULTS

Although the results reveal a number of concerns raised by nurses, it is clear that the majority (90%) view treating and caring for influenza patients as core to their role. While recognising their professional responsibilities, they reveal apprehension about certain aspects of their work, such as an increased likelihood of infection, added workload and pressures, an increased concern for those close to them who could become infected as well as the overall increase in stress levels at work. The extent of professional and personal preparedness, together with the concerns and perceptions of nurses, could affect the hospital's overall capacity to respond and these concerns should be addressed by those responsible for the development of pandemic response plan.

Early vaccine availability represents an important public health advance for the control of pandemic influenza

BACKGROUND

Traditional processes for the production of pandemic influenza vaccines are not capable of producing a vaccine that could be deployed sooner than 5-6 months after strain identification. Plant-based vaccine technologies are of public health interest because they represent an opportunity to begin vaccinating earlier.

METHODS

We used an age- and risk- structured disease transmission model for Canada to evaluate the potential impact of a plant-produced vaccine available for rapid deployment (within 1-3 months) compared to an egg-based vaccine timeline.

RESULTS

We found that in the case of a mildly transmissible virus (R0 = 1.3), depending on the amount of plant-based vaccine produced per week, severe clinical outcomes could be decreased by 60-100 % if vaccine was available within 3 months of strain identification. However, in the case of a highly transmissible virus (R0 = 2.0), a delay of 3 months does not change clinical outcomes regardless of the level of weekly vaccine availability. If transmissibility is high, the only strategy that can impact clinical outcomes occurs if vaccine production is high and available within 2 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic influenza vaccines produced by plants, change the timeline of pandemic vaccine availability in a way that could significantly mitigate the impact of the next influenza pandemic.

How high is a high risk? Prioritising high-risk individuals in an influenza pandemic

Pandemic contingency plans frequently define priority groups that are given preferential access to influenza vaccine. One of the most commonly named groups for prioritisation is that of high-risk individuals. However, current models of categorisation are unsatisfactory in a number of ways. It will be argued that existing vaccination strategies fail to adequately define what kind of risks are being considered and how, as well as on the basis of which information, these risks are calculated. Moreover, it will be suggested that existing vaccination strategies fail to specify of what magnitude a risk has to be, in order to be categorised as 'high'. Finally, it shall be argued that a mere focus on the size of a risk factor may lead policy makers to overlook underlying concerns of distributive justice.

Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978-2008

During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community's response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises.

The securitisation of pandemic influenza: framing, security and public policy

This article examines how pandemic influenza has been framed as a security issue, threatening the functioning of both state and society, and the policy responses to this framing. Pandemic influenza has long been recognised as a threat to human health. Despite this, for much of the twentieth century it was not recognised as a security threat. In the decade surrounding the new millennium, however, the disease was successfully securitised with profound implications for public policy. This article addresses the construction of pandemic influenza as a threat. Drawing on the work of the Copenhagen School, it examines how it was successfully securitised at the turn of the millennium and with what consequences for public policy.

The mucosal and systemic immune responses elicited by a chitosan-adjuvanted intranasal influenza H5N1 vaccine

BACKGROUND

Development of influenza vaccines that induce mucosal immunity has been highlighted by the World Health Organisation as a priority (Vaccine 2005;23:1529). Dose-sparing strategies and an efficient mass-vaccination regime will be paramount to reduce the morbidity and mortality of a future H5N1 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES

This study has investigated the immune response and the dose-sparing potential of a chitosan-adjuvanted intranasal H5N1 (RG-14) subunit (SU) vaccine in a mouse model.

METHODS

Groups of mice were intranasally immunised once or twice with a chitosan (5 mg/ml)-adjuvanted SU vaccine [7·5, 15 or 30 μg haemagglutinin (HA)] or with a non-adjuvanted SU vaccine (30 μg HA). For comparison, another group of mice were intranasally immunised with a whole H5N1 (RG-14) virus (WV) vaccine (15 μg HA), and the control group consisted of unimmunised mice.

RESULTS

The chitosan-adjuvanted SU vaccine induced an immune response superior to that of the non-adjuvanted SU vaccine. Compared with the non-adjuvanted SU group, the chitosan-adjuvanted SU vaccine elicited higher numbers of influenza-specific antibody-secreting cells (ASCs), higher concentrations of local and systemic antibodies and correspondingly an improved haemagglutination inhibition (HI) and single radial haemolysis (SRH) response against both the homologous vaccine strain and drifted H5 strains. We measured a mixed T-helper 1/T-helper 2 cytokine response in the chitosan-adjuvanted SU groups, and these groups had an increased percentage of virus-specific CD4(+) T cells producing two Thelper 1 (Th1) cytokines simultaneously compared with the non-adjuvanted SU group. Overall, the WV vaccine induced higher antibody concentrations in sera and an HI and SRH response similar to that of the chitosan-adjuvanted SU vaccine. Furthermore, the WV vaccine formulation showed a stronger bias towards a T-helper 1 profile than the SU vaccine and elicited the highest frequencies of CD4(+) Th1 cells simultaneously secreting three different cytokines (INFγ(+) , IL2(+) and INFα(+) ). As expected, two immunisations gave a better immune response than one in all groups. The control group had very low or not detectable results in the performed immunoassays.

CONCLUSION

The cross-clade serum reactivity, improved B- and T-cell responses and dose-sparing potential of chitosan show that a chitosan-adjuvanted intranasal influenza vaccine is a promising candidate vaccine for further preclinical development.

Interaction between influenza virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae in severe pneumonia

The contribution of bacterial superinfection to influenza-associated pneumonia morbidity and mortality is evident from the 1918 and 1957 influenza pandemics, and is supported by a number of murine model studies. Murine model studies have also assisted in helping to expand our understanding of the pathogenesis of the interaction between the influenza virus and subsequent susceptibility to pneumococcal superinfections. The purported impact that the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has had on reducing the burden of confirmed influenza-associated pneumonia, as well as upon all-cause clinical pneumonia, provides additional clinical evidence of the role of superimposed pneumococcal infections as a cause of severe pneumonia in children. Using this information together with the evidence for the effectiveness of influenza vaccination against influenza-associated pneumonia, it is imperative that preventive strategies for future influenza pandemic preparedness include broad-based vaccination against pneumococci, as well as ensuring that adequate antimicrobials are available for the early treatment of influenza virus, in addition to pneumococcal and other bacterial infections.

Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: a case study in Turkey

Influenza pandemics have occurred intermittently throughout the 20th century and killed millions of people worldwide. It is expected that influenza pandemics will continue to occur in the near future. Huge number of deaths and cases is the most troublesome aspect of the influenza pandemics, but the other important trouble is the economic impact of the influenza pandemics to the countries. In this study, we try to detect the cost of a possible influenza pandemic under different scenarios and attack rates. We include the vaccination and antiviral treatment cost for direct cost and we add the work absenteeism cost to the calculations for indirect cost of influenza pandemics. As a case study, we calculate the economic impact of pandemic influenza for Turkey under three different scenarios and three different attack rates. Our optimistic estimation shows that the economic impact of pandemic influenza will be between 1.364 billion dollars and 2.687 billions dollars to Turkish economy depending on the vaccination strategies.

Evaluating the Capability and Cost of a Mass Influenza and Pneumococcal Vaccination Clinic via Computer Simulation

Objective. To determine if a mass influenza/pneumococcal vaccination clinic could vaccinate 15,000 clients in 17 h; optimize personnel configuration to maximize number of clients vaccinated; and estimate costs (opportunity and clinic) and revenue. Method. The author used a discrete event simulation model to estimate the throughput of the vaccination clinic as the number of clients (arrival intensity) increased and as staff members were reassigned to different workflows. We represented workflows for 3 client types: ``Medicare,'' ``Special,'' and ``Cash,'' where ``Special'' designates Medicare clients who needed assistance moving through the clinic. The costs of supplies, staff sal-aries, and client waiting time were included in the model. We compared the ``original'' model based on the staffing and performance of an actual clinic to an ``optimized'' model in which staff were reassigned to optimize number of clients vaccinated. Results. A maximum of 13,138 and 15,094 clients in the original and optimized models, respectively, were vaccinated. At the original arrival rate (8300 clients vaccinated in 17 h), supplies cost about $191,000 and were the most expensive component of the clinic operation in both models. However, as the arrival intensity increased to 140%, the ``Medicare'' client opportunity cost increased from $23,887 and $21,474 to $743,510 and $740,760 for the simulated original and optimized models, respectively. Conclusion. The clinic could reach their target of 15,000 vaccinees with 2 fewer staff members by rearranging staff assignments from ``Special'' to ``Medicare'' and ``Cash'' stations. Computer simulation can help public health officials determine the most efficient use of staff, machinery, supplies, and time.

Project VIVA: a multilevel community-based intervention to increase influenza vaccination rates among hard-to-reach populations in New York City

OBJECTIVES

We sought to determine whether the work of a community-based participatory research partnership increased interest in influenza vaccination among hard-to-reach individuals in urban settings.

METHODS

A partnership of researchers and community members carried out interventions for increasing acceptance of influenza vaccination in disadvantaged urban neighborhoods, focusing on hard-to-reach populations (e.g., substance abusers, immigrants, elderly, sex workers, and homeless persons) in East Harlem and the Bronx in New York City. Activities targeted the individual, community organization, and neighborhood levels and included dissemination of information, presentations at meetings, and provision of street-based and door-to-door vaccination during 2 influenza vaccine seasons. Participants were recruited via multiple modalities. Multivariable analyses were performed to compare interest in receiving vaccination pre- and postintervention.

RESULTS

There was increased interest in receiving the influenza vaccine postintervention (P<.01). Being a member of a hard-to-reach population (P=.03), having ever received an influenza vaccine (P<.01), and being in a priority group for vaccination (P<.01) were also associated with greater interest in receiving the vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting underserved neighborhoods through a multilevel community-based participatory research intervention significantly increased interest in influenza vaccination, particularly among hard-to-reach populations. Such interventions hold promise for increasing vaccination rates annually and in pandemic situations.

Strategies for improving influenza immunization rates among hard-to-reach populations

Whereas considerable attention has been devoted to achieving high levels of influenza immunization, the importance of this issue is magnified by concern over pandemic influenza. Most recommendations for vaccine administration address high risk groups such as the elderly and those with chronic diseases, but coverage for hard-to-reach (HTR) populations has had less attention. HTR populations include minorities but also include other primarily urban groups such as undocumented immigrants, substance users, the homeless, and homebound elderly. Obstacles to the provision of immunization to HTR populations are present at the patient, provider, and structural levels. Strategies at the individual level for increasing immunization coverage include community-based educational campaigns to improve attitudes and increase motivation for receiving vaccine; at the provider level, education of providers to encourage immunizations, improving patient-provider interactions, broadening the provider base to include additional nurses and pharmacists, and adoption of standing orders for immunization administration; and at the structural level, promoting wider availability of and access to vaccine. The planning process for an influenza pandemic should include community engagement and extension of strategies beyond traditional providers to involve community-based organizations addressing HTR populations.

Economics of neuraminidase inhibitor stock piling for pandemic influenza, Singapore

We compared strategies for stock piling neuraminidase inhibitors to treat and prevent influenza in Singapore. Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, with Monte Carlo simulations, were used to determine economic outcomes. A pandemic in a population of 4.2 million would result in an estimated 525-1,775 deaths, 10,700-38,600 hospitalization days, and economic costs of 0.7 dollars to 2.2 billion Singapore dollars. The treatment-only strategy had optimal economic benefits: stock piles of antiviral agents for 40% of the population would save an estimated 418 lives and 414 million dollars, at a cost of 52.6 million dollars per shelf-life cycle of the stock pile. Prophylaxis was economically beneficial in high-risk subpopulations, which account for 78% of deaths, and in pandemics in which the death rate was >0.6%. Prophylaxis for pandemics with a 5% case-fatality rate would save 50,000 lives and 81 billion dollars. These models can help policymakers weigh the options for pandemic planning.

Pandemic influenza: is an antiviral response realistic?

BACKGROUND

Antiviral agents could play a significant role in the response to a future influenza pandemic, especially if an effective vaccine is unavailable. There is, however, a limited availability of antiviral drugs, as was the case during the A/Fujian(H3N2) epidemic in the 2003-2004 season. There are major differences among the available antiviral agents in terms of clinical pharmacology, adverse effects and resistance profiles, all of which must be considered when selecting agents for pandemic use and stockpiling. The logistic issues involved in delivering the drug to large populations must also be considered. The M2 ion channel inhibitors amantadine and rimantadine are partially effective for chemoprophylaxis of pandemic influenza, and when used for early treatment they provide some symptom relief. Interpandemic studies demonstrate that the neuraminidase inhibitors would be effective for both prevention and treatment of influenza.

CONCLUSION

Given the limited supply and the previously demonstrated inability of the manufacturing sector to meet surging needs, an effective antiviral response could not currently be launched in the United States. Antiviral agents could be important in managing and treating pandemic influenza and reduce lower respiratory complications and hospitalizations.

Maternal influenza infection causes marked behavioral and pharmacological changes in the offspring

Maternal viral infection is known to increase the risk for schizophrenia and autism in the offspring. Using this observation in an animal model, we find that respiratory infection of pregnant mice (both BALB/c and C57BL/6 strains) with the human influenza virus yields offspring that display highly abnormal behavioral responses as adults. As in schizophrenia and autism, these offspring display deficits in prepulse inhibition (PPI) in the acoustic startle response. Compared with control mice, the infected mice also display striking responses to the acute administration of antipsychotic (clozapine and chlorpromazine) and psychomimetic (ketamine) drugs. Moreover, these mice are deficient in exploratory behavior in both open-field and novel-object tests, and they are deficient in social interaction. At least some of these behavioral changes likely are attributable to the maternal immune response itself. That is, maternal injection of the synthetic double-stranded RNA polyinosinic-polycytidylic acid causes a PPI deficit in the offspring in the absence of virus. Therefore, maternal viral infection has a profound effect on the behavior of adult offspring, probably via an effect of the maternal immune response on the fetus.

Protection by methyl inosine monophosphate (MIMP) against aerosol influenza virus infection in mice

Methyl inosine monophosphate (MIMP) is a novel thymomimetic purine immunomodulator capable of enhancing a wide variety of immune responses. Intravenous (i.v.) administration of MIMP 1 day prior to influenza virus infection could confer partial protection and significantly increase the mean survival of treated mice. Intranasal (i.n.) administration of MIMP improved survival rates and incorporation of MIMP in squalane-saline emulsion 1 day prior to or 1 h after influenza infection conferred complete protection. Mice administered MIMP had reduced levels of lung virus and lower titers of circulating serum hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibodies. Complete survival and reduction of viral load after influenza challenge infection suggests effective stimulation by MIMP of protective responses against influenza virus.

Influenza update: vaccine development and clinical trials

Although influenza activity throughout the world has been relatively low during the past year, epidemics of influenza A, in particular, which are caused by new virus variants, continue to be a major public health problem. Widespread vaccination is the only rational measure that can be used for the prevention of illness in key risk groups. Although current inactivated split/subunit vaccines are reasonably effective, significant improvements have been shown to be possible in the boosting of responses by the use of particular adjuvants and/or the direct administration of vaccines to the respiratory tract. Live attenuated vaccines, also administered directly to the respiratory tract, have continued to be shown to be safe and effective, and, in the longer term, probably will have a major role in influenza prophylaxis, especially in children and young adults.

Maternal infection: window on neuroimmune interactions in fetal brain development and mental illness

Direct viral infection of the developing brain can have disastrous consequences for the fetus. More subtle and perhaps more insidious are viral infections of the pregnant mother, which can have long-lasting effects such as an increased risk of schizophrenia in the offspring. A recent mouse model has shown that respiratory infection in the pregnant mother leads to marked behavioral and pharmacological abnormalities in the offspring, some of which are relevant for schizophrenia and autism. This effect on fetal brain development might be caused by the maternal antiviral immune response, possibly mediated by cytokines.

Recent developments in the epidemiology of virus diseases

There is continual variation in viral epidemics regarding clinical symptoms, duration and disappearance, and the emergence of new diseases. This can be observed in both human and animal diseases. This evolution of virus diseases is mainly related to three factors: aetiological agent, host and environment. As far as genetic alterations of the virus are concerned, two major mechanisms are involved: mutations such as recombination and reassortment; and selection for resistance or susceptibility. This review focuses on the epidemiology of newly emerged virus diseases in man and animals, such as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, haemorraghic fevers, bovine spongiform encephalopathy, canine haemorraghic disease and respiratory syndrome in horses.

Developing vaccines against pandemic influenza

Pandemic influenza presents special problems for vaccine development. There must be a balance between rapid availability of vaccine and the safeguards to ensure safety, quality and efficacy of vaccine. Vaccine was developed for the pandemics of 1957, 1968, 1977 and for the pandemic alert of 1976. This experience is compared with that gained in developing vaccines for a possible H5N1 pandemic in 1997-1998. Our ability to mass produce influenza vaccines against a pandemic threat was well illustrated by the production of over 150 million doses of 'swine flu' vaccine in the USA within a 3 month period in 1976. However, there is cause for concern that the lead time to begin vaccine production is likely to be about 7-8 months. Attempts to reduce this time should receive urgent attention. Immunogenicity of vaccines in pandemic situations is compared over the period 1968-1998. A consistent feature of the vaccine trials is the demonstration that one conventional 15 microg haemagglutinin dose of vaccine is not sufficiently immunogenic in naive individuals. Much larger doses or two lower doses are needed to induce satisfactory immunity. There is some evidence that whole-virus vaccines are more immunogenic than split or subunit vaccines, but this needs substantiating by further studies. H5 vaccines appeared to be particularly poor immunogens and there is evidence that an adjuvant may be needed. Prospects for improving the development of pandemic vaccines are discussed.