Modeling diurnal hormone profiles by hierarchical state space models

Dynamic hierarchical state space forecasting

In this paper, we aim to both borrow information from existing units and incorporate the target unit's history data in time series forecasting. We consider a situation when we have time series data from multiple units that share similar patterns when aligned in terms of an internal time. The internal time is defined as an index according to evolving features of interest. When mapped back to the calendar time, these time series can span different time intervals that can include the future calendar time of the targeted unit, over which we can borrow the information from other units in forecasting the targeted unit. We first build a hierarchical state space model for the multiple time series data in terms of the internal time, where the shared components capture the similarities among different units while allowing for unit-specific deviations. A conditional state space model is then constructed to incorporate the information of existing units as the prior information in forecasting the targeted unit. By running the Kalman filtering based on the conditional state space model on the targeted unit, we incorporate both the information from the other units and the history of the targeted unit. The forecasts are then transformed from internal time back into calendar time for ease of interpretation. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance. Forecasting state-level new COVID-19 cases in United States is used for illustration.

Neuroendocrine Modulation of Cognitive Performance in the Patients with Fibromyalgia

BACKGROUND

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic widespread pain disorder associated with fatigue, tender points, sleep disturbances, and mood disorders. Symptoms associated with FM also include decreased cognitive function in which the neural basis is poorly understood. Neuroendocrine hormones may be correlated with cognitive performance under some ill conditions. However, we are unaware of current evidence on neuroendocrine hormones as factors influencing cognitive function in adults with FM.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to assess whether neuroendocrine hormones could affect cognition in the patients with FM.

STUDY DESIGN

This study used a case-control trial design.

SETTING

Study patients were recruited from the neurological outpatient clinics in the Second Affiliated Hospital and Affiliated Chaohu Hospital of Anhui Medical University and met the American College of Rheumatology criteria for FM.

METHODS

Forty-six patients with FM were compared with twenty-nine healthy controls (HCs). Several measures of cognitive performance and serum levels of neuroendocrine hormones were used to make these comparisons, and the patients were also asked to complete questionnaires on depression and sleep quality. Partial correlation analysis was performed to control the confounders and linear regression analysis was used to examine the effects of neuroendocrine hormones on cognitive measures.

RESULTS

The FM patients had worse performance in attention, short-term memory, orientation, object working memory and spatial reference memory, higher depression scores, and worse sleep quality than HCs. The raised level of cortisol and gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) can protect general cognition, whereas the raised level of cortisol and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) will damage spatial memory.

LIMITATIONS

We did not study the sex hormones comprehensively.

CONCLUSIONS

The FM patients showed significant cognitive impairment in several domains. The altered levels of cortisol, thyrotrophin-releasing hormone (TRH), and GnRH may mediate cognitive changes in FM.

Regulation of Human Adipose Tissue Activation, Gallbladder Size, and Bile Acid Metabolism by a β3-Adrenergic Receptor Agonist

β3-adrenergic receptor (AR) agonists are approved to treat only overactive bladder. However, rodent studies suggest that these drugs could have other beneficial effects on human metabolism. We performed tissue receptor profiling and showed that the human β3-AR mRNA is also highly expressed in gallbladder and brown adipose tissue (BAT). We next studied the clinical implications of this distribution in 12 healthy men given one-time randomized doses of placebo, the approved dose of 50 mg, and 200 mg of the β3-AR agonist mirabegron. There was a more-than-dose-proportional increase in BAT metabolic activity as measured by [18F]-2-fluoro-D-2-deoxy-d-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (medians 0.0 vs. 18.2 vs. 305.6 mL ⋅ mean standardized uptake value [SUVmean] ⋅ g/mL). Only the 200-mg dose elevated both nonesterified fatty acids (68%) and resting energy expenditure (5.8%). Previously undescribed increases in gallbladder size (35%) and reductions in conjugated bile acids were also discovered. Therefore, besides urinary bladder relaxation, the human β3-AR contributes to white adipose tissue lipolysis, BAT thermogenesis, gallbladder relaxation, and bile acid metabolism. This physiology should be considered in the development of more selective β3-AR agonists to treat obesity-related complications.