Prediction of adverse perinatal outcome by fetal biometry: comparison of customized and population-based standards

Comparing population-based fetal growth standards in a US cohort

BACKGROUND

No fetal growth standard is currently endorsed for universal use in the United States. Newer standards improve upon the methodologic limitations of older studies; however, before adopting into practice, it is important to know how recent standards perform at identifying fetal undergrowth or overgrowth and at predicting subsequent neonatal morbidity or mortality in US populations.

OBJECTIVE

To compare classification of estimated fetal weight that is <5th or 10th percentile or >90th percentile by 6 population-based fetal growth standards and the ability of these standards to predict a composite of neonatal morbidity and mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

We used data from the Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study: Monitoring Mothers-to-be cohort, which recruited nulliparous women in the first trimester at 8 US clinical centers (2010-2014). Estimated fetal weight was obtained from ultrasounds at 16 to 21 and 22 to 29 weeks of gestation (N=9534 women). We calculated rates of fetal growth restriction (estimated fetal weight <5th and 10th percentiles; fetal growth restriction<5 and fetal growth restriction<10) and estimated fetal weight >90th percentile (estimated fetal weight>90) from 3 large prospective fetal growth cohorts with similar rigorous methodologies: INTERGROWTH-21, World Health Organization-sex-specific and combined, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development race-ethnic-specific and unified, and the historic Hadlock reference. To determine whether differential classification of fetal growth restriction or estimated fetal weight >90 among standards was clinically meaningful, we then compared area under the curve and sensitivity of each standard to predict small for gestational age or large for gestational age at birth, composite perinatal morbidity and mortality alone, and small for gestational age or large for gestational age with composite perinatal morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

The standards classified different proportions of fetal growth restriction and estimated fetal weight>90 for ultrasounds at 16 to 21 (visit 2) and 22 to 29 (visit 3) weeks of gestation. At visit 2, the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development race-ethnic-specific, World Health Organization sex-specific and World Health Organization-combined identified similar rates of fetal growth restriction<10 (8.4%-8.5%) with the other 2 having lower rates, whereas Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development race-ethnic-specific identified the highest rate of fetal growth restriction<5 (5.0%) compared with the other references. At visit 3, World Health Organization sex-specific classified 9.2% of fetuses as fetal growth restriction<10, whereas the other 5 classified a lower proportion as follows: World Health Organization-combined (8.4%), Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development race-ethnic-specific (7.7%), INTERGROWTH (6.2%), Hadlock (6.1%), and Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development unified (5.1%). INTERGROWTH classified the highest (21.3%) as estimated fetal weight>90 whereas Hadlock classified the lowest (8.3%). When predicting composite perinatal morbidity and mortality in the setting of early-onset fetal growth restriction, World Health Organization had the highest area under the curve of 0.53 (95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.53) for fetal growth restriction<10 at 22 to 29 weeks of gestation, but the areas under the curve were similar among standards (0.52). Sensitivity was generally low across standards (22.7%-29.1%). When predicting small for gestational age birthweight with composite neonatal morbidity or mortality, for fetal growth restriction<10 at 22 to 29 weeks of gestation, World Health Organization sex-specific had the highest area under the curve (0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.67) and INTERGROWTH had the lowest (area under the curve=0.58; 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.62), though all standards had low sensitivity (7.0%-9.6%).

CONCLUSION

Despite classifying different proportions of fetuses as fetal growth restriction or estimated fetal weight>90, all standards performed similarly in predicting perinatal morbidity and mortality. Classification of different percentages of fetuses as fetal growth restriction or estimated fetal weight>90 among references may have clinical implications in the management of pregnancies, such as increased antenatal monitoring for fetal growth restriction or cesarean delivery for suspected large for gestational age. Our findings highlight the importance of knowing how standards perform in local populations, but more research is needed to determine if any standard performs better at identifying the risk of morbidity or mortality.

Late-onset fetal growth restriction management: a national survey

BACKGROUND

Fetal growth restriction (FGR) is an obstetric condition that increases the risk of adverse neonatal outcomes. FGR antenatal care aims to decrease fetal morbidity and mortality through optimal fetal monitoring. However, no univocal strategies for late-onset FGR outpatient management are available, and this survey investigated gynaecologists' attitudes concerning outpatient frequency tests.

METHODS

We mailed a survey to 429 Italian gynaecologists. The primary purpose was the ambulatory care of late-onset FGR without doppler alterations evaluation. The queries estimated the self-reported medical practice regarding cardiotocography (CTG) and obstetric ultrasound exams before hospitalization. Statistical analysis was performed with Stata 14.1 (Stata corp., College Station, TX, USA) for symmetrically distributed continuous variables, and the mean differences were analyzed using the t-test. Where appropriate, the proportions between the groups were evaluated using Fisher's exact or χ2 test. All P value <0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

128 responses (29.8%) from the 429 SCCAL members were available for the survey. 39.9% of respondents had a late FGR standardized protocol. Regarding non-severe FGR with normal fetal doppler, 70.8% suggested a fetal doppler study after one week (92/128), 13.8% (18/128) and 6.9% (9/128) proposed the exam, respectively, two and three times for a week. 0.8% (1/128) of respondents had a daily doppler exam, 7.7% (10/128) did not answer, and 3.1% (4/128) repeated the ultrasound exam to time for a week. The antenatal CTG was offered: 70.8% (92/128) of gynaecologists recommended one weekly CTG, whereas 13.8% (18/128) suggested two. 6.9% (9/128) recommended three weekly tests and 0.8% a daily test. 7.7% (10/128) of gynaecologists did not respond. At least, we investigated the gynaecologist's recommendations for outpatient EFW evaluation: 59.4% (76/128) repeated EFW after two weeks, 31.3% (40/128) after one week. 3.9% (4/128) and 3.1 (4/128) recommended EFW after three weeks and twice a week.

CONCLUSIONS

Gynaecologists recommend unnecessary cardiotocography and ultrasound Doppler exams for non-severe late-onset FGR with normal doppler. However, additional studies and comprehensive surveys are needed to support a standardized protocol and assess the feto-maternal outcomes impact.

Prenatal prediction of adverse outcome using different charts and definitions of fetal growth restriction

OBJECTIVE

Antenatal growth assessment using ultrasound aims to identify small fetuses that are at higher risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality. This study explored whether the association between suboptimal fetal growth and adverse perinatal outcome varies with different definitions of fetal growth restriction (FGR) and different weight charts/standards.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 17 261 singleton non-anomalous pregnancies at ≥ 24 + 0 weeks' gestation that underwent routine ultrasound at a tertiary referral hospital. Estimated fetal weight (EFW) and Doppler indices were converted into percentiles using a reference standard (INTERGROWTH-21st (IG-21)) and various reference charts (Hadlock, Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) and Swedish). Test characteristics were assessed using the consensus definition, Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) definition and Swedish criteria for FGR. Adverse perinatal outcome was defined as perinatal death, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit at term, 5-min Apgar score < 7 and therapeutic cooling for neonatal encephalopathy. The association between FGR according to each definition and adverse perinatal outcome was compared. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to test the strength of association between ultrasound parameters and adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound parameters were also tested for correlation.

RESULTS

IG-21, Hadlock and FMF fetal size references classified as growth-restricted 1.5%, 3.6% and 4.6% of fetuses, respectively, using the consensus definition and 2.9%, 8.8% and 10.6% of fetuses, respectively, using the SMFM definition. The sensitivity of the definition/chart combinations for adverse perinatal outcome varied from 4.4% (consensus definition with IG-21 charts) to 13.2% (SMFM definition with FMF charts). Specificity varied from 89.4% (SMFM definition with FMF charts) to 98.6% (consensus definition with IG-21 charts). The consensus definition and Swedish criteria showed the highest specificity, positive predictive value and positive likelihood ratio in detecting adverse outcome, irrespective of the reference chart/standard used. Conversely, the SMFM definition had the highest sensitivity across all investigated growth charts. Low EFW, abnormal mean uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and abnormal cerebroplacental ratio were significantly associated with adverse perinatal outcome and there was a positive correlation between the covariates. Multivariate logistic regression showed that UtA-PI > 95th percentile and EFW < 5th percentile were the only parameters consistently associated with adverse outcome, irrespective of the definitions or fetal growth chart/standard used.

CONCLUSIONS

The apparent prevalence of FGR varies according to the definition and fetal size reference chart/standard used. Irrespective of the method of classification, the sensitivity for the identification of adverse perinatal outcome remains low. EFW, UtA-PI and fetal Doppler parameters are significant predictors of adverse perinatal outcome. As these indices are correlated with one other, a prediction algorithm is advocated to overcome the limitations of using these parameters in isolation. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Assessment of the cerebroplacental ratio and uterine arteries in low-risk pregnancies in early labour for the prediction of obstetric and neonatal outcomes

BACKGROUND

The evidence-based management of human labor includes the antepartum identification of patients at risk for intrapartum hypoxia. However, available evidence has shown that most of the hypoxic-related complications occur among pregnancies classified at low-risk for intrapartum hypoxia, thus suggesting that the current strategy to identify the pregnancies at risk for intrapartum fetal hypoxia has limited accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the role of the combined assessment of the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) and uterine arteries (UtA) Doppler in the prediction of obstetric intervention (OI) for suspected intrapartum fetal compromise (IFC) within a cohort of low-risk singleton term pregnancies in early labor.

METHODS

Prospective multicentre observational study conducted across four tertiary Maternity Units between January 2016 and September 2019. Low-risk term pregnancies with spontaneous onset of labor were included. A two-step multivariable model was developed to assess the risk of OI for suspected IFC. The baseline model included antenatal and intrapartum characteristics, while the combined model included antenatal and intrapartum characteristics plus Doppler anomalies such as CPR MoM < 10th percentile and mean UtA Doppler PI MoM ≥ 95th percentile. Predictive performance was determined by receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis.

RESULTS

804 women were included. At logistic regression analysis, CPR MoM < 10th percentile (aOR 1.269, 95 % CI 1.188-1.356, P < 0.001), mean UtA PI MoM ≥ 95th percentile (aOR 1.012, 95 % CI 1.001-1.022, P = 0.04) were independently associated with OI for suspected IFC. At ROC curve analysis, the combined model including antenatal characteristics plus abnormal CPR and mean UtA PI yielded an AUC of 0.78, 95 %CI(0.71-0.85), p < 0.001, which was significantly higher than the baseline model (AUC 0.61, 95 %CI(0.54-0.69), p = 0.007) (p < 0.001). The combined model was associated with a 0.78 (95 % CI 0.67-0.89) sensitivity, 0.68 (95 % CI 0.65-0.72) specificity, 0.15 (95 % CI 0.11-0.19) PPV, and 0.98 (0.96-0.99) NPV, 2.48 (95 % CI 2.07-2.97) LR + and 0.32 (95 % CI 0.19-0.53) LR- for OI due to suspected IFC.

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive model including antenatal and intrapartum characteristics combined with abnormal CPR and mean UtA PI has a good capacity to rule out and a moderate capacity to rule in OI due to IFC, albeit with poor predictive value.

Exposure to metal mixtures and adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Prenatal exposure to metal mixtures is associated with adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes like low birth weight, preterm birth, and small for gestational age. However, prior studies have used individual metal analysis, lacking real-life exposure scenarios.

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review aims to evaluate the strength and consistency of the association between metal mixtures and pregnancy and birth outcomes, identify research gaps, and inform future studies and policies in this area.

METHODS

The review adhered to the updated Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) checklist, along with the guidelines for conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies of etiology (COSMOS-E). Our data collection involved searching the PubMed, MEDLINE, and SCOPUS databases. We utilized inclusion criteria to identify relevant studies. These chosen studies underwent thorough screening and data extraction procedures. Methodological quality evaluations were conducted using the NOS framework for cohort and case-control studies, and the AXIS tool for cross-sectional studies.

RESULTS

The review included 34 epidemiological studies, half of which focused on birth weight, and the others investigated neonate size, preterm birth, small for gestational age, miscarriage, and placental characteristics. The findings revealed significant associations between metal mixtures (including mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), barium (Ba), cesium (Cs), copper (Cu), selenium (Se), and chromium (Cr)) and adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, demonstrating diverse effects and potential interactions.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this review consistently establishes connections between metal exposure during pregnancy and adverse consequences for birth weight, gestational age, and other vital birth-related metrics. This review further demonstrates the need to apply mixture methods with caution but also shows that they can be superior to traditional approaches. Further research is warranted to deeper understand the underlying mechanisms and to develop effective strategies for mitigating the potential risks associated with metal mixture exposure during pregnancy.

The clinical performance and population health impact of birthweight-for-gestational age indices at term gestation

BACKGROUND

The assessment of birthweight for gestational age and the identification of small- and large-for-gestational age (SGA and LGA) infants remain contentious, despite the recent creation of the Intergrowth 21st Project and World Health Organisation (WHO) birthweight-for-gestational age standards.

OBJECTIVE

We carried out a study to identify birthweight-for-gestational age cut-offs, and corresponding population-based, Intergrowth 21st and WHO centiles associated with higher risks of adverse neonatal outcomes, and to evaluate their ability to predict serious neonatal morbidity and neonatal mortality (SNMM) at term gestation.

METHODS

The study population was based on non-anomalous, singleton live births between 37 and 41 weeks' gestation in the United States from 2003 to 2017. SNMM included 5-min Apgar score <4, neonatal seizures, need for assisted ventilation, and neonatal death. Birthweight-specific SNMM was modelled by gestational week using penalised B-splines. The birthweights at which SNMM odds were minimised (and higher by 10%, 50% and 100%) were estimated, and the corresponding population, Intergrowth 21st, and WHO centiles were identified. The clinical performance and population impact of these cut-offs for predicting SNMM were evaluated.

RESULTS

The study included 40,179,663 live births and 991,486 SNMM cases. Among female singletons at 39 weeks' gestation, SNMM odds was lowest at 3203 g birthweight, and 10% higher at 2835 g and 3685 g (population centiles 11th and 82nd, Intergrowth centiles 17th and 88th and WHO centiles 15th and 85th). Birthweight cut-offs were poor predictors of SNMM, for example, the cut-offs associated with 10% and 50% higher odds of SNMM among female singletons at 39 weeks' gestation resulted in a sensitivity, specificity, and population attributable fraction of 12.5%, 89.4%, and 2.1%, and 2.9%, 98.4% and 1.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Reference- and standard-based birthweight-for-gestational age indices and centiles perform poorly for predicting adverse neonatal outcomes in individual infants, and their associated population impact is also small.

Predictive ability of fetal growth charts in identifying kindergarten-age developmental challenges: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine recommends defining fetal growth restriction as an estimated fetal weight or abdominal circumference <10th percentile of a population-based reference. However, because multiple references are available, an understanding of their ability to identify infants at increased risk due to fetal growth restriction is critical. Previous studies have focused on the ability of different population references to identify short-term outcomes, but fetal growth restriction also has longer-term consequences for child development.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the association between estimated fetal weight percentiles on the INTERGROWTH-21st and World Health Organization fetal growth charts and kindergarten-age childhood development, and establish the charts' discriminatory ability in predicting kindergarten-age developmental challenges.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective cohort study linking obstetrical ultrasound scans conducted at BC Women's Hospital, Vancouver, Canada, with population-based standardized kindergarten test results. The cohort was limited to nonanomalous, singleton fetuses scanned at ≥28 weeks' gestation from 2000 to 2011, with follow-up until 2017. We classified estimated fetal weight into percentiles using the INTERGROWTH-21st and World Health Organization charts. We used generalized additive modeling to link estimated fetal weight percentile with routine province-wide kindergarten readiness test results. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve and other measures of diagnostic accuracy with 95% confidence intervals at select percentile cut-points of the charts. We repeated analyses using the Hadlock chart to help contextualize findings. The main outcome measure was the total Early Development Instrument score (/50). Secondary outcomes were Early Development Instrument subdomain scores for language and cognitive development, and for communication skills and general knowledge, as well as designation of "developmentally vulnerable" or "special needs".

RESULTS

Among 3418 eligible fetuses, those with lower estimated fetal weight percentiles had systematically lower Early Development Instrument scores and increased risks of developmental vulnerability. However, the clinical significance of differences was modest in magnitude (eg, total Early Development Instrument score -2.8 [95% confidence interval, -5.1 to -0.5] in children with an estimated fetal weight in 3rd-9th percentile of INTERGROWTH-21st chart [vs reference of 31st-90th]). The charts' predictive abilities for adverse child development were limited (eg, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve <0.53 for all 3 charts).

CONCLUSION

Lower estimated fetal weight percentiles on the INTERGROWTH-21st and World Health Organization charts indicate increased risks of adverse kindergarten-age child development at the population level, but are not accurate individual-level predictors of adverse child development.

Routine third trimester ultrasonography in predicting adverse perinatal outcomes: a prospective cohort study at a tertiary-care hospital in Eastern India

AIMS

Fetal growth restriction (FGR) may go undetected in the antenatal period with subjective clinical evaluation, and there is a growing propensity to perform a third-trimester scan, especially in the developed countries. The literature on the importance of the same in developing countries like ours, is scant. Hence, this study was undertaken to evaluate the role of routine third-trimester ultrasonography along with Doppler in predicting adverse perinatal outcome.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted at a tertiary-care hospital, in which routine third-trimester ultrasonography was performed for 265 antenatal women, and included estimation of amniotic fluid index (AFI), estimated fetal-weight (EFW), and cerebroplacental ratio (CPR). Women were categorized as having normal parameters or having at least one abnormal parameter. Post-natal adverse perinatal outcomes including low birth-weight, hypoglycemia, poor Apgar scores, prolonged hospital stay, need for ventilatory support, neonatal asphyxia, neonatal sepsis and early neonatal death were recorded. Prediction analyses for sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were done. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for threshold for each parameter for adverse outcome.

RESULTS

Out of 260 women that were analyzed, 47.5% had no clinically identifiable risk factors, and 52.5% had at least one abnormal parameter. Sensitivity and negative predictive value for adverse outcome were highest for composite ultrasound finding (85.4% and 90.4% respectively). Specificity, positive predictive value and diagnostic accuracy were highest for CPR (97.8%, 86.7% and 76.9% respectively).

CONCLUSION

Routine third trimester ultrasonography, including Doppler, can help in risk-stratification of otherwise clinically low-risk pregnancies.

Fetal growth restriction and small for gestational age as predictors of neonatal morbidity: which growth nomogram to use?

BACKGROUND

Fetal growth nomograms were developed to screen for fetal growth restriction and guide clinical care to improve perinatal outcomes; however, existing literature remains inconclusive regarding which nomogram is the gold standard.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the ability of 4 commonly used nomograms (Hadlock, International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development-unified standard, and World Health Organization fetal growth charts) and 1 institution-specific reference to predict small for gestational age and poor neonatal outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study of all nonanomalous singleton pregnancies undergoing ultrasound at ≥20 weeks of gestation between 2013 and 2020 and delivering at a single academic center. Using random selection methods, the study sample was restricted to 1 pregnancy per patient and 1 ultrasound per pregnancy completed at ≥22 weeks of gestation. Fetal biometry data were used to calculate estimated fetal weight and percentiles according to the aforementioned 5 nomograms. Maternal and neonatal data were extracted from electronic medical records. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between estimated fetal weight of <10th and <3rd percentiles compared with estimated fetal weight of 10th to 90th percentile as the reference group for small for gestational age and the neonatal composite outcomes (perinatal mortality, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy or seizures, respiratory morbidity, intraventricular hemorrhage, necrotizing enterocolitis, hyperbilirubinemia or hypoglycemia requiring neonatal intensive care unit admission, and retinopathy of prematurity). Receiver operating characteristic curve contrast estimation (primary analysis) and test characteristics were calculated for all nomograms and the prediction of small for gestational age and the neonatal composite outcomes. We restricted the sample to ultrasounds performed within 28 days of delivery; moreover, similar analyses were completed to assess the prediction of small for gestational age and neonatal composite outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 10,045 participants, the proportion of fetuses classified as <10th percentile varied across nomograms from 4.9% to 9.7%. Fetuses with an estimated fetal weight of <10th percentile had an increased risk of small for gestational age (odds ratio, 9.9 [95% confidence interval, 8.5-11.5] to 12.8 [95% confidence interval, 10.9-15.0]). In addition, the estimated fetal weight of <10th and <3rd percentile was associated with increased risk of the neonatal composite outcome (odds ratio, 2.4 [95% confidence interval, 2.0-2.8] to 3.5 [95% confidence interval, 2.9-4.3] and 5.7 [95% confidence interval, 4.5-7.2] to 8.8 [95% confidence interval, 6.6-11.8], respectively). The prediction of small for gestational age with an estimated fetal weight of <10th percentile had a positive likelihood ratio of 6.3 to 8.5 and an area under the curve of 0.62 to 0.67. Similarly, the prediction of the neonatal composite outcome with an estimated fetal weight of <10th percentile had a positive likelihood ratio of 2.1 to 3.1 and an area under the curve of 0.55 to 0.57. When analyses were restricted to ultrasound within 4 weeks of delivery, among fetuses with an estimated fetal weight of <10th percentile, the risk of small for gestational age increased across all nomograms (odds ratio, 16.7 [95% confidence interval, 12.6-22.3] to 25.1 [95% confidence interval, 17.0-37.0]), and prediction improved (positive likelihood ratio, 8.3-15.0; area under the curve, 0.69-0.75). Similarly, the risk of neonatal composite outcome increased (odds ratio, 3.2 [95% confidence interval, 2.4-4.2] to 5.2 [95% confidence interval, 3.8-7.2]), and prediction marginally improved (positive likelihood ratio, 2.4-4.1; area under the curve, 0.60-0.62). Importantly, the risk of both being small for gestational age and having the neonatal composite outcome further increased (odds ratio, 21.4 [95% confidence interval, 13.6-33.6] to 28.7 (95% confidence interval, 18.6-44.3]), and the prediction of concurrent small for gestational age and neonatal composite outcome greatly improved (positive likelihood ratio, 6.0-10.0; area under the curve, 0.80-0.83).

CONCLUSION

In this large cohort, Hadlock, recent fetal growth nomograms, and a local population-derived fetal growth reference performed comparably in the prediction of small for gestational age and neonatal composite outcomes.

Stillbirth risk and smallness for gestational age according to Hadlock, INTERGROWTH-21st, WHO, and GROW fetal weight standards: analysis by maternal ethnicity and body mass index

BACKGROUND

Appropriate growth charts are essential for fetal surveillance, to confirm that growth is proceeding normally and to identify pregnancies that are at risk. Many stillbirths are avoidable through antenatal detection of the small-for-gestational-age fetus. In the absence of an international consensus on which growth chart to use, it is essential that clinical practice reflects outcome-based evidence.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the performance of 4 internationally used fetal weight standards and their ability to identify stillbirth risk in different ethnic and maternal size groups of a heterogeneous population.

STUDY DESIGN

We analyzed routinely collected maternity data from more than 2.2 million pregnancies. Three population-based fetal weight standards (Hadlock, Intergrowth-21st, and World Health Organization) were compared with the customized GROW standard that was adjusted for maternal height, weight, parity, and ethnic origin. Small-for-gestational-age birthweight and stillbirth risk were determined for the 2 largest ethnic groups in our population (British European and South Asian), in 5 body mass index categories, and in 4 maternal size groups with normal body mass index (18.5-25.0 kg/m2). The differences in trend between stillbirth and small-for-gestational-age rates were assessed using the Clogg z test, and differences between stillbirths and body mass index groups were assessed using the chi-square trend test.

RESULTS

Stillbirth rates (per 1000) were higher in South Asian pregnancies (5.51) than British-European pregnancies (3.89) (P<.01) and increased in both groups with increasing body mass index (P<.01). Small-for-gestational-age rates were 2 to 3-fold higher for South Asian babies than British European babies according to the population-average standards (Hadlock: 26.2% vs 12.2%; Intergrowth-21st: 12.1% vs 4.9%; World Health Organization: 32.2% vs 16.0%) but were similar by the customized GROW standard (14.0% vs 13.6%). Despite the wide variation, each standard's small-for-gestation-age cases had increased stillbirth risk compared with non-small-for-gestation-age cases, with the magnitude of risk inversely proportional to the rate of cases defined as small for gestational age. All standards had similar stillbirth risk when the small-for-gestation-age rate was fixed at 10% by varying their respective thresholds for defining small for gestational age. When analyzed across body mass index subgroups, the small-for-gestation-age rate according to the GROW standard increased with increasing stillbirth rate, whereas small-for-gestation-age rates according to Hadlock, Intergrowth-21st, and World Health Organization fetal weight standards declined with increasing body mass index, showing a difference in trend (P<.01) to stillbirth rates across body mass index groups. In the normal body mass index subgroup, stillbirth rates showed little variation across maternal size groups; this trend was followed by GROW-based small-for-gestation-age rates, whereas small-for-gestation-age rates defined by each population-average standard declined with increasing maternal size.

CONCLUSION

Comparisons between population-average and customized fetal growth charts require examination of how well each standard identifies pregnancies at risk of adverse outcomes within subgroups of any heterogeneous population. In both ethnic groups studied, increasing maternal body mass index was accompanied by increasing stillbirth risk, and this trend was reflected in more pregnancies being identified as small for gestational age only by the customized standard. In contrast, small-for-gestation-age rates fell according to each population-average standard, thereby hiding the increased stillbirth risk associated with high maternal body mass index.

Amniotic fluid rubidium concentration association with newborn birthweight: a maternal-neonatal pilot study

BACKGROUND

Although most biological systems, including human tissues, contain rubidium, its biogeochemical functions and possible role in neonatal birthweight are largely unknown. An animal study indicated a correlation between rubidium deficiency in the maternal diet and lower newborn birthweight.

OBJECTIVE

This pilot study measured rubidium concentrations in amniotic fluid during the second trimester of (low-risk) pregnancy and investigated potential correlations between rubidium levels and third-trimester newborn birthweight-small for gestational age, appropriate for gestational age, and large for gestational age-and between preterm birth and term birth in uncomplicated pregnancies.

STUDY DESIGN

This prospective, single-center study investigated a possible relationship between rubidium concentration in second-trimester amniotic fluid and third-trimester birthweight percentile. Amniotic fluid (at a median gestational age of 19 weeks) was sampled to determine rubidium concentration. Maternal and newborn characteristics were obtained from participant and delivery records.

RESULTS

After screening 173 pregnant women, 99 amniotic fluid samples were evaluated. Midpregnancy median rubidium concentrations were significantly lower among newborns that were classified as small for gestational age than among newborns that were classified as appropriate for gestational age (106 vs 136 μg/L; P<.01). Based on a logistic regression random forest model, amniotic fluid rubidium was identified as a significant contributing factor to appropriate-for-gestational-age birthweight with 54% of the total contribution.

CONCLUSION

Amniotic fluid rubidium concentration seems to be a strong predictor of appropriate-for-gestational-age birthweight and a potential marker for newborn birthweight classifications. In particular, low rubidium concentrations in amniotic fluid during midpregnancy are linked to third-trimester lower birthweight percentile. These findings could potentially serve as a valuable tool for early identification of pregnancy outcomes. Further investigation is necessary to fully explore the effect of rubidium on fetal development.

Uterine artery Doppler in early labor and perinatal outcome in low-risk term pregnancy: prospective multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

The prediction of adverse perinatal outcomes in low-risk pregnancies is poor, mainly owing to the lack of reliable biomarkers. Uterine artery (UtA) Doppler is closely associated with placental function and may facilitate the peripartum detection of subclinical placental insufficiency. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of mean UtA pulsatility index (PI) measured in early labor with obstetric intervention for suspected intrapartum fetal compromise and adverse perinatal outcome in uncomplicated singleton term pregnancies.

METHODS

This was a prospective multicenter observational study conducted across four tertiary maternity units. Low-risk term pregnancies with spontaneous onset of labor were included. The mean UtA-PI was recorded between uterine contractions in women admitted for early labor and converted into multiples of the median (MoM). The primary outcome of the study was the occurrence of obstetric intervention, i.e. Cesarean section or instrumental delivery, for suspected intrapartum fetal compromise. Secondary outcomes were the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes, including 5-min Apgar score < 7, low cord arterial pH, raised cord arterial base excess, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and postnatal diagnosis of small-for-gestational-age fetus. Composite adverse perinatal outcome was defined as the occurrence of at least one of the following: acidemia in the umbilical artery, defined as pH < 7.10 and/or base excess > 12 mmol/L, 5-min Apgar score < 7 or admission to the NICU.

RESULTS

Overall, 804 women were included, of whom 40 (5.0%) had abnormal mean UtA-PI MoM. Women who had an obstetric intervention for suspected intrapartum fetal compromise were more frequently nulliparous (72.2% vs 53.6%; P = 0.008), had a higher frequency of increased mean UtA-PI MoM (13.0% vs 4.4%; P = 0.005) and had a longer duration of labor (456 ± 221 vs 371 ± 192 min; P = 0.01). On logistic regression analysis, only increased mean UtA-PI MoM (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 3.48 (95% CI, 1.43-8.47); P = 0.006) and parity (aOR, 0.45 (95% CI, 0.24-0.86); P = 0.015) were independently associated with obstetric intervention for suspected intrapartum fetal compromise. Increased mean UtA-PI MoM was associated with a sensitivity of 0.13 (95% CI, 0.05-0.25), specificity of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.94-0.97), positive predictive value of 0.18 (95% CI, 0.07-0.33), negative predictive value of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.92-0.95), positive likelihood ratio of 2.95 (95% CI, 1.37-6.35) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.82-1.01) for obstetric intervention for suspected intrapartum fetal compromise. Pregnancies with increased mean UtA-PI MoM also showed a higher incidence of birth weight < 10th percentile (20.0% vs 6.7%; P = 0.002), NICU admission (7.5% vs 1.2%; P = 0.001) and composite adverse perinatal outcome (15.0% vs 5.1%; P = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

Our study, conducted in a cohort of low-risk term pregnancies enrolled in early spontaneous labor, showed an independent association between increased mean UtA-PI and obstetric intervention for suspected intrapartum fetal compromise, albeit with moderate capacity to rule in, and poor capacity to rule out, this condition. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

[Review of the literature on intrauterine and birthweight charts]

OBJECTIVES

To describe the main intrauterine and birthweight charts and review the studies comparing their performance for the identification of infants at risk of adverse perinatal outcomes.

METHODS

We carried out a literature search using Medline and selected the charts most frequently cited in the literature, French charts and those recently published.

RESULTS

Current knowledge on the association between mortality and morbidity and growth anomalies (small and large for gestational age) mostly relies on the use of descriptive charts which describe the weight distribution in unselected populations. Prescriptive charts, which describe ideal growth in low risk populations, have been constructed more recently. Few studies have evaluated whether the thresholds used to identify infants at risk with descriptive charts (such as the 3^rd or the 10^th percentile) are applicable to prescriptive charts. There is a large variability in the percentage of fetuses or newborns identified as being at risk by each chart, with from 3 to 25% having with a weight under the 10^th percentile, regardless of whether descriptive or prescriptive charts are used. The sensitivity and specificity of antenatal screening for small or large for gestational age newborns depends on the chart used to derive estimated fetal weight percentiles.

CONCLUSION

There is marked variability between intrauterine growth charts that can influence the percentage of infants identified as having abnormal growth. These results show that before the adoption of a growth chart, it is essential to evaluate whether it adequately describes the population and its performance for identifying of infants at risk because of growth anomalies.

Abnormal Maternal Body Mass Index and Customized Fetal Weight Charts: Improving the Identification of Small for Gestational Age Fetuses and Newborns

BACKGROUND

Obesity and thinness are serious diseases, but cases with abnormal maternal weight have not been excluded from the calculations in the construction of customized fetal growth curves (CCs).

METHOD

To determine if the new CCs, built excluding mothers with an abnormal weight, are better than standard CCs at identifying SGA. A total of 16,122 neonates were identified as SGA, LGA, or AGA, using the two models. Logistic regression and analysis of covariance were used to calculate the OR and CI for adverse outcomes by group. Gestational age was considered as a covariable.

RESULTS

The SGA rates by the new CCs and by the standard CCs were 11.8% and 9.7%, respectively. The SGA rate only by the new CCs was 18% and the SGA rate only by the standard CCs was 0.01%. Compared to AGA by both models, SGA by the new CCs had increased rates of cesarean section, (OR 1.53 (95% CI 1.19, 1.96)), prematurity (OR 2.84 (95% CI 2.09, 3.85)), NICU admission (OR 5.41 (95% CI 3.47, 8.43), and adverse outcomes (OR 1.76 (95% CI 1.06, 2.60). The strength of these associations decreased with gestational age.

CONCLUSION

The use of the new CCs allowed for a more accurate identification of SGA at risk of adverse perinatal outcomes as compared to the standard CCs.

Growth phenotypes of very low birth weight infants for prediction of neonatal outcomes from a Brazilian cohort: comparison with INTERGROWTH

OBJECTIVE

To assess the predictive value of selected growth phenotypes for neonatal morbidity and mortality in preterm infants < 30 weeks and to compare them with INTERGROWTH-21^st (IG21).

METHOD

Retrospective analysis of data from the Brazilian Neonatal Research Network (BNRN) database for very low birth weight (VLBW) at 20 public tertiary-care university hospitals.

OUTCOME

the composite neonatal morbidity and mortality (CNMM) consisted of in-hospital death, oxygen use at 36 weeks, intraventricular hemorrhage grade 3 or 4, and Bell stage 2 or 3 necrotizing enterocolitis. Selected growth phenotypes: small-for-gestational-age (SGA) defined as being < 3^rd (SGA3) or 10^th (SGA10) percentiles of BW, and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) as being > 97^th percentile of BW. Stunting as being < 3^rd percentile of the length and wasting as being < 3^rd percentile of BMI. Single and multiple log-binomial regression models were fitted to estimate the relative risks of CNMM, comparing them to IG21.

RESULTS

4,072 infants were included. The adjusted relative risks of CNMM associated with selected growth phenotypes were (BNRN/IG21): 1.45 (0.92-2.31)/1.60 (1.27-2.02) for SGA; 0.90 (0.55-1.47)/1.05 (0.55-1.99) for LGA; 1.65 (1.08-2.51)/1.58 (1.28-1.96) for stunting; and 1.48 (1.02-2.17) for wasting. Agreement between the two references was variable. The growth phenotypes had good specificity (>95%) and positive predictive value (70-90%), with poor sensitivity and low negative predictive value.

CONCLUSION

The BNRN phenotypes at birth differed markedly from the IG21 standard and showed poor accuracy in predicting adverse neonatal outcomes.

A new method for customized fetal growth reference percentiles

BACKGROUND

Customized fetal growth charts assume birthweight at term to be normally distributed across the population with a constant coefficient of variation at earlier gestational ages. Thus, standard deviation used for computing percentiles (e.g., 10th, 90th) is assumed to be proportional to the customized mean, although this assumption has never been formally tested.

METHODS

In a secondary analysis of NICHD Fetal Growth Studies-Singletons (12 U.S. sites, 2009-2013) using longitudinal sonographic biometric data (n = 2288 pregnancies), we investigated the assumptions of normality and constant coefficient of variation by examining behavior of the mean and standard deviation, computed following the Gardosi method. We then created a more flexible model that customizes both mean and standard deviation using heteroscedastic regression and calculated customized percentiles directly using quantile regression, with an application in a separate study of 102, 012 deliveries, 37-41 weeks.

RESULTS

Analysis of term optimal birthweight challenged assumptions of proportionality and that values were normally distributed: at different mean birthweight values, standard deviation did not change linearly with mean birthweight and the percentile computed with the normality assumption deviated from empirical percentiles. Composite neonatal morbidity and mortality rates in relation to birthweight < 10th were higher for heteroscedastic and quantile models (10.3% and 10.0%, respectively) than the Gardosi model (7.2%), although prediction performance was similar among all three (c-statistic 0.52-0.53).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings question normality and constant coefficient of variation assumptions of the Gardosi customization method. A heteroscedastic model captures unstable variance in customization characteristics which may improve detection of abnormal growth percentiles.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00912132.

Prediction of large-for-gestational-age infant by fetal growth charts and hemoglobin A1c level in pregnancy complicated by pregestational diabetes

OBJECTIVES

To compare the ability of three fetal growth charts (Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF), Hadlock and National Institutes of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) race/ethnicity-specific) to predict large-for-gestational age (LGA) at birth in pregnant individuals with pregestational diabetes, and to determine whether inclusion of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level improves the predictive performance of the growth charts.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of individuals with Type-1 or Type-2 diabetes with a singleton pregnancy that resulted in a non-anomalous live birth. Fetal biometry was performed between 28 + 0 and 36 + 6 weeks of gestation. The primary exposure was suspected LGA, defined as estimated fetal weight ≥ 90^th percentile using the Hadlock (Formula C), FMF and NICHD growth charts. The primary outcome was LGA at birth, defined as birth weight ≥ 90^th percentile, using 2017 USA natality reference data. The performance of the three growth charts to predict LGA at birth, alone and in combination with HbA1c as a continuous measure, was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value.

RESULTS

Of 358 assessed pregnant individuals with pregestational diabetes (34% with Type 1 and 66% with Type 2), 147 (41%) had a LGA infant at birth. Suspected LGA was identified in 123 (34.4%) by the Hadlock, 152 (42.5%) by the FMF and 152 (42.5%) by the NICHD growth chart. The FMF growth chart had the highest sensitivity (77% vs 69% (NICHD) vs 63% (Hadlock)) and the Hadlock growth chart had the highest specificity (86% vs 76% (NICHD) and 82% (FMF)) for predicting LGA at birth. The FMF growth chart had a significantly higher AUC (0.79 (95% CI, 0.74-0.84)) for LGA at birth compared with the NICHD (AUC, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.77); P < 0.001) and Hadlock (AUC, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.79); P < 0.01) growth charts. Prediction of LGA improved for all three growth charts with the inclusion of HbA1c measurement in comparison to each growth chart alone (P < 0.001 for all); the FMF growth chart remained more predictive of LGA at birth (AUC, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.81-0.90)) compared with the NICHD (AUC, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.73-0.84)) and Hadlock (AUC, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.86)) growth charts.

CONCLUSIONS

The FMF fetal growth chart had the best predictive performance for LGA at birth in comparison with the Hadlock and NICHD race/ethnicity-specific growth charts in pregnant individuals with pregestational diabetes. Inclusion of HbA1c improved further the prediction of LGA for all three charts. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Severe smallness as predictor of adverse perinatal outcome in suspected late small-for-gestational-age fetuses: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the performance of severe smallness in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome among fetuses with suspected late-onset small-for-gestational age (SGA).

METHODS

A systematic search was performed to identify relevant studies in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Late-onset SGA was defined as estimated fetal weight (EFW) or abdominal circumference (AC) < 10^th percentile diagnosed at or after 32 weeks' gestation, while severe SGA was defined as EFW or AC < 3^rd percentile or < 2 SD. Random-effects modeling was used to generate hierarchical summary receiver-operating-characteristics (HSROC) curves. The performance of severe SGA (as a presumptive diagnosis) in predicting adverse perinatal outcome among singleton pregnancies with suspected late-onset SGA was expressed as area under the HSROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and positive/negative likelihood ratios. The association between suspected severe SGA and adverse perinatal outcome was also assessed by random-effects modeling using the Mantel-Haenszel method and presented as odds ratio (OR). The non-exposed group was defined as non-severe SGA (EFW ≥ 3^rd centile).

RESULTS

Twelve cohort studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The studies included a total of 3639 fetuses with suspected late-onset SGA, of which 1246 had suspected severe SGA. Significant associations were found between suspected severe SGA and composite adverse perinatal outcome (OR, 1.97 (95% CI, 1.33-2.92)), neonatal intensive care unit admission (OR, 2.87 (95% CI, 1.84-4.47)) and perinatal death (OR, 4.26 (95% CI, 1.07-16.93)). However, summary ROC curves showed limited performance of suspected severe SGA in predicting perinatal outcomes, with AUCs of 60.9%, 66.9%, 53.6%, 57.2%, 54.6% and 64.9% for composite adverse perinatal outcome, neonatal intensive care unit admission, neonatal acidosis, Cesarean section for intrapartum fetal compromise, low Apgar score and perinatal death, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although suspected severe SGA was associated with a higher risk of perinatal complications, it performed poorly as a standalone parameter in predicting adverse perinatal outcome. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Predictive performance of newborn small for gestational age by a United States intrauterine vs birthweight-derived standard for short-term neonatal morbidity and mortality

BACKGROUND

The use of birthweight standards to define small for gestational age may fail to identify neonates affected by poor fetal growth as they include births associated with suboptimal fetal growth.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare intrauterine vs birthweight-derived standards to define newborn small for gestational age to predict neonatal morbidity and mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter observational study of 118,422 births. Live-born singleton, nonanomalous newborns born at 23 to 41 weeks of gestation were included. Those with missing gestational age estimation or without a first- or second-trimester ultrasound to confirm dating, birthweight, or neonatal outcome data were excluded. Birthweight percentile was computed using an intrauterine standard (Hadlock) and a birthweight-derived standard (Olsen). We compared the test characteristics of small for gestational age (birthweight of <10th percentile) by each standard to predict a composite neonatal morbidity and mortality outcome (death before discharge, neonatal intensive care unit admission >48 hours, respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, necrotizing enterocolitis, grade 3 or 4 intraventricular hemorrhage, or seizures). Severe composite morbidity was analyzed as a secondary outcome and was defined as death, neonatal intensive care unit admission >7 days, necrotizing enterocolitis, grade 3 or 4 intraventricular hemorrhage, or seizures. The areas under the curve using receiver-operating characteristic methodology and proportions of the primary outcome by small for gestational age status were compared by gestational age category at birth (<34, 34 0/7 to 36 6/7, ≥37 weeks).

RESULTS

Of 115,502 mother-newborn dyads in the parent study, 78,203 (67.7%) were included, with most exclusions occurring because of missing or inadequate dating information, multiple gestations, or delivery outside the gestational age range. The primary composite outcome occurred in 9.5% (95% confidence interval, 9.3-9.7), and the severe composite outcome occurred in 5.3% (95% confidence interval, 5.1-5.4). Small for gestational age was diagnosed by intrauterine and birthweight-derived standards in 14.8% and 7.4%, respectively (P<.001). Neonates considered small for gestational age only by the intrauterine standard experienced the primary outcome more than twice as often as those considered non-small for gestational age by both standards (18.4% vs 7.9%; P<.001). For the prediction of the primary outcome, small for gestational age by the intrauterine standard had higher sensitivity (29% vs 15%; P<.001) but lower specificity (87% vs 93%; P<.001) than by the birthweight standard. Both standards had weak performance overall, although the intrauterine standard had a higher area under the curve (0.58 vs 0.53; P<.001). When subanalyzed by gestational age at birth, the difference in areas under the curve was only present among preterm deliveries 34 to 36 competed weeks. Neither standard demonstrated any discrimination for morbidity prediction among term births (area under the curve, 0.50 for both). When the prediction of severe morbidity was compared, the intrauterine still had better overall prediction than the birthweight standard (areas under the curve, 0.65 vs 0.57; P<.001), although this also varied by gestational age at birth.

CONCLUSION

Among nonanomalous neonates, neither intrauterine nor birthweight-derived standards for small for gestational age accurately predicted neonatal morbidity and mortality, with no discriminatory ability at term. Small for gestational age intrauterine standards performed better than birthweight standards.

Urinary phthalate metabolite mixtures in pregnancy and fetal growth: Findings from the infant development and the environment study

BACKGROUND

Prenatal phthalate exposure has been linked to reductions in fetal growth in animal and laboratory studies, but epidemiologic evidence is equivocal.

OBJECTIVE

Examine the association between prenatal phthalate metabolite mixtures and fetal growth and evaluate whether that association is modified by fetal sex or omega-3 intake during pregnancy.

METHODS

Analyses included 604 singleton pregnancies from TIDES, a prospective pregnancy cohort with spot urine samples and questionnaires collected in each trimester. Pregnancy-averaged phthalate exposure estimates were calculated as the geometric means of specific-gravity corrected phthalate metabolites. Fetal growth outcomes included birthweight and length, and ultrasound-derived size and velocity of estimated fetal weight, femur length, abdominal and head circumferences in the second and third trimesters. We used a novel application of quantile g-computation to estimate the joint association between pregnancy-averaged phthalate exposure and fetal growth, and to examine effect modification of that association by infant sex or omega-3 intake during pregnancy.

RESULTS

There were few statistically significant differences in birth size and fetal growth by exposure. A one-quartile increase in the phthalate mixture was modestly associated with reduced birthweight(β [95% confidence interval)]: -54.6 [-128.9, 19.7] grams; p = 0.15) and length (-0.2 [-0.6, 0.2] centimeters; p = 0.40). A one-quartile increase in the phthalate mixture was associated with reduced birth length in males (-0.5 [-1.0, 0.0] centimeters) but not for females (0.1 [-0.2, 0.3] centimeters); interaction p = 0.05. The phthalate metabolite mixture was inversely associated with ultrasound-derived fetal growth among those with adequate omega-3 intake. For example, a one-quartile increase in the phthalate mixture was associated with reduced abdominal circumference in the third trimesters in those with adequate omega-3 intake (-3.3 [-6.8, 0.1] millimeters) but not those with inadequate omega-3 intake (1.8 [-0.8, 4.5] millimeters); interaction p = 0.01.

CONCLUSION

Prenatal phthalate exposure was not significantly associated with fetal growth outcomes, with some exceptions for certain subgroups.

Which chart and which cut-point: deciding on the INTERGROWTH, World Health Organization, or Hadlock fetal growth chart

OBJECTIVE

To determine how various centile cut points on the INTERGROWTH-21st (INTERGROWTH), World Health Organization (WHO), and Hadlock fetal growth charts predict perinatal morbidity/mortality, and how this relates to choosing a fetal growth chart for clinical use.

METHODS

We linked antenatal ultrasound measurements for fetuses > 28 weeks' gestation from the British Columbia Women's hospital ultrasound unit with the provincial perinatal database. We estimated the risk of perinatal morbidity/mortality (decreased cord pH, neonatal seizures, hypoglycemia, and perinatal death) associated with select centiles on each fetal growth chart (the 3rd, 10th, the centile identifying 10% of the population, and the optimal cut-point by Youden's Index), and determined how well each centile predicted perinatal morbidity/mortality.

RESULTS

Among 10,366 pregnancies, the 10th centile cut-point had a sensitivity of 11% (95% CI 8, 14), 13% (95% CI 10, 16), and 12% (95% CI 10, 16), to detect fetuses with perinatal morbidity/mortality on the INTERGROWTH, WHO, and Hadlock charts, respectively. All charts performed similarly in predicting perinatal morbidity/mortality (area under the curve [AUC] =0.54 for all three charts). The statistically optimal cut-points were the 39th, 31st, and 32nd centiles on the INTERGROWTH, WHO, and Hadlock charts respectively.

CONCLUSION

The INTERGROWTH, WHO, and Hadlock fetal growth charts performed similarly in predicting perinatal morbidity/mortality, even when evaluating multiple cut points. Deciding which cut-point and chart to use may be guided by other considerations such as impact on workflow and how the chart was derived.

Third-trimester growth diversity in small fetuses classified as appropriate-for-gestational age or small-for-gestational age at birth

OBJECTIVE

We have shown previously that third-trimester growth in small fetuses (estimated fetal weight (EFW) < 10^th percentile) with birth weight (BW) < 10^th percentile is heterogeneous using individualized growth assessment (IGA). We aimed to test our hypothesis that individual growth patterns in small fetuses with BW > 10^th percentile are also variable but in different ways.

METHODS

This was a study of 191 cases with EFW < 10^th percentile and BW > 10^th percentile (appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) cohort), derived from the PORTO study. Composite size parameters were used to quantify growth pathology at individual third-trimester timepoints (individual composite prenatal growth assessment score (-icPGAS)). The fetal growth pathology score 1 (-FGPS1), calculated cumulatively from serial -icPGAS values, was used to characterize third-trimester growth patterns. Vascular-system evaluation included umbilical artery (UA) and middle cerebral artery (MCA) Doppler velocimetry. Outcome variables were birth age (preterm/term delivery) and BW (expressed as growth potential realization index for weight (GPRI_WT ) and percentile). The findings from the AGA cohort were compared with those from small fetuses (EFW < 10^th percentile) with BW < 10^th percentile (small-for-gestational-age (SGA) cohort).

RESULTS

The AGA cohort was found to have 134 fetuses (70%) with normal growth pattern and 57 (30%) with growth restriction based on IGA criteria. Seven growth-restriction -FGPS1 patterns were observed, including the previously defined progressive, late, adaptive and recovering types. The recovering type was the most common growth pattern in the AGA cohort (50.9%). About one-third of fetuses without any evidence of growth restriction had significant unexplained abnormalities in the UA (34%) and MCA (31%) and elevated mean GPRI_WT values (113 ± 12.5%). Comparison of the AGA and SGA cohorts indicated a significant difference in the distribution of -FGPS1 growth patterns (P = 0.0001). Compared with the SGA cohort, the AGA cohort had more fetuses with a normal growth pattern (70% vs 38%) and fewer cases with growth restriction (30% vs 62%). While the recovering type was the most common growth-restriction pattern in the AGA cohort (51%), the progressive type was the primary growth-restriction pattern in the SGA cohort (44%). No difference in the incidence of MCA or UA abnormality was found between the SGA and AGA cohorts when comparing subgroups of more than 10 fetuses.

CONCLUSIONS

Both normal-growth and growth-restriction patterns were observed in the AGA cohort using IGA, as seen previously in the SGA cohort. The seven types of growth restriction defined in the SGA cohort were also identified in AGA cases, but their distribution was significantly different. In one-third of cases without evidence of growth pathology in the AGA cohort, Doppler abnormalities in the UA and MCA were seen. This heterogeneity underscores the difficulty of accurate classification of fetal and neonatal growth status using conventional population-based methods. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comparison of the performance of estimated fetal weight charts for the detection of small- and large-for-gestational age newborns with adverse outcomes: a French population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance of estimated fetal weight (EFW) charts at the third trimester ultrasound for detecting small- and large-for-gestational age (SGA/LGA) newborns with adverse outcomes.

DESIGN

Nationally representative observational study.

SETTING

French maternity units in 2016.

POPULATION

9940 singleton live births with an ultrasound between 30 and 35 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

We compared three prescriptive charts (INTERGROWTH-21st, World Health Organization (WHO), Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development [NICHD]), four descriptive charts (Hadlock, Fetal Medicine Foundation, two French charts) and a French customised growth model (Epopé).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SGA and LGA (birthweights <10th and >90th percentiles) associated with adverse outcomes (low Apgar score, delivery-room resuscitation, neonatal unit admission).

RESULTS

2.1% and 1.1% of infants had SGA and LGA and adverse outcomes, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for detecting these infants with an EFW <10th and >90th percentile varied from 29-65% and 84-96% for descriptive charts versus 27-60% and 83-96% for prescriptive charts. WHO and French charts were closest to the EFW distribution, yielding a balance between sensitivity and specificity for SGA and LGA births. INTERGROWTH-21st and Epopé had low sensitivity for SGA with high sensitivity for LGA. Areas under the receiving operator characteristics curve ranged from 0.62 to 0.74, showing low to moderate predictive ability, and diagnostic odds ratios varied from 7 to 16.

CONCLUSION

Marked differences in the performance of descriptive as well as prescriptive EFW charts highlight the importance of evaluating them for their ability to detect high-risk fetuses.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Choice of growth chart strongly affected identification of high-risk fetuses at the third trimester ultrasound.

The limits of small-for-gestational-age as a high-risk category

SGA (small for gestational age) is widely used to identify high-risk infants, although with inconsistent definitions. Cut points range from 2.5th to 10th percentile of birthweight-for-gestational age. We used receiver operator characteristic curves (ROC) to identify the cut point with maximum sensitivity and specificity (Youden Index), and the area under the curve (AUC), which assesses overall discriminating power. Analysis was conducted on 3,836,034 US births (2015) and 292,279 Norwegian births (2010-14). Birthweight percentiles were calculated using exact birthweights at each week of gestational age, and then summarized across gestational ages. We also conducted a companion analysis of gestational age itself to consider the predictive power of gestational week of birth. Outcomes were neonatal mortality and cerebral palsy, both strongly associated with birthweight. Birthweight percentiles performed poorly in all analyses. The AUC for birthweight percentiles as a discriminator of neonatal mortality was 60% (where 50% is no better than a coin-toss). At such low discrimination, the Youden Index provides no useful SGA cut point. Results in Norway were virtually identical, with an AUC of 58%. The AUC with cerebral palsy as the outcome was even lower, at 54%. In contrast, gestational age had an AUC of 85% as a predictor of neonatal mortality, with < 37 weeks as the optimum cut point. SGA provides surprisingly poor identification of at-risk infants, while gestational age performs well. Similar results in two countries that differ in mean birthweight, percent preterm, and neonatal mortality suggest robustness across populations.

Customized versus Population Growth Standards for Morbidity and Mortality Risk Stratification Using Ultrasonographic Fetal Growth Assessment at 22 to 29 Weeks' Gestation

OBJECTIVE

The aim of study is to compare the performance of ultrasonographic customized and population fetal growth standards for prediction adverse perinatal outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a secondary analysis of the Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study: Monitoring Mothers-to-Be, in which l data were collected at visits throughout pregnancy and after delivery. Percentiles were assigned to estimated fetal weights (EFWs) measured at 22 to 29 weeks using the Hadlock population standard and a customized standard (www.gestation.net). Areas under the curve were compared for the prediction of composite and severe composite perinatal morbidity using EFW percentile.

RESULTS

Among 8,701 eligible study participants, the population standard diagnosed more fetuses with fetal growth restriction (FGR) than the customized standard (5.5 vs. 3.5%, p < 0.001). Neither standard performed better than chance to predict composite perinatal morbidity. Although the customized performed better than the population standard to predict severe perinatal morbidity (areas under the curve: 0.56 vs. 0.54, p = 0.003), both were poor. Fetuses considered FGR by the population standard but normal by the customized standard had morbidity rates similar to fetuses considered normally grown by both standards.The population standard diagnosed FGR among black women and Hispanic women at nearly double the rate it did among white women (p < 0.001 for both comparisons), even though morbidity was not different across racial/ethnic groups. The customized standard diagnosed FGR at similar rates across groups. Using the population standard, 77% of FGR cases were diagnosed among female fetuses even though morbidity among females was lower (p < 0.001). The customized model diagnosed FGR at similar rates in male and female fetuses.

CONCLUSION

At 22 to 29 weeks' gestation, EFW percentile alone poorly predicts perinatal morbidity whether using customized or population fetal growth standards. The population standard diagnoses FGR at increased rates in subgroups not at increased risk of morbidity and at lower rates in subgroups at increased risk of morbidity, whereas the customized standard does not.

Performance of six birth-weight and estimated-fetal-weight standards for predicting adverse perinatal outcome: a 10-year nationwide population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate three birth-weight (BW) standards (Australian population-based, Fenton and INTERGROWTH-21^st ) and three estimated-fetal-weight (EFW) standards (Hadlock, INTERGROWTH-21^st and WHO) for classifying small-for-gestational age (SGA) and large-for-gestational age (LGA) and predicting adverse perinatal outcomes in preterm and term babies.

METHODS

This was a nationwide population-based study conducted on a total of 2.4 million singleton births that occurred from 24 + 0 to 40 + 6 weeks' gestation between 2004 and 2013 in Australia. The performance of the growth charts was evaluated according to SGA and LGA classification, and relative risk (RR) and diagnostic accuracy based on the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curves (AUCs) for stillbirth, neonatal death, perinatal death, composite morbidity and a composite of perinatal death and morbidity outcomes. The analysis was stratified according to gestational age at delivery (< 37 + 0 vs ≥ 37 + 0 weeks).

RESULTS

Following exclusions, 2 392 782 singleton births were analyzed. There were significant differences in the SGA and LGA classification and risk of adverse outcomes between the six BW and EFW standards evaluated. For the term group, compared with the other standards, the INTERGROWTH-21^st BW and EFW standards classified half the number of SGA (< 10^th centile) babies (3-4% vs 7-11%) and twice the number of LGA (> 90^th centile) babies (24-25% vs 8-15%), resulting in a smaller cohort of term SGA at higher risk of adverse outcome and a larger LGA cohort at lower risk of adverse outcome. For term SGA (< 3^rd centile) babies, the RR of perinatal death using the two INTERGROWTH-21^st standards was up to 1.5-fold higher than those of the other standards (including the WHO-EFW and Hadlock-EFW), while the INTERGROWTH-21^st -EFW standard indicated a 12-26% reduced risk of perinatal death for LGA cases across centile thresholds. Conversely, for the preterm group, the WHO-EFW and Hadlock-EFW standards identified a higher SGA classification rate than did the other standards (18-19% vs 10-11%) and a 20-65% increased risk of perinatal death in term LGA babies. All BW and EFW charts had similarly poor performance in predicting adverse outcomes, including the composite outcome (AUC range, 0.49-0.62) for both preterm (AUC range, 0.58-0.62) and term (AUC range, 0.49-0.50) cases and across centiles. Furthermore, specific centile thresholds for identifying adverse outcomes varied markedly by chart between BW and EFW standards.

CONCLUSIONS

This study addresses the recurrent problem of identifying fetuses at risk of morbidity and perinatal mortality associated with growth disorders and provides new insights into the applicability of international growth standards. Our findings of marked variation in classification and the similarly poor performance of prescriptive international standards and the other commonly used standards raise questions about whether the prescriptive international standards that were constructed for universal adoption are indeed applicable to a multiethnic population such as that of Australia. Thus, caution is needed when adopting universal standards for clinical and epidemiological use. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of Late-Onset Small for Gestational Age and Fetal Growth Restriction by Fetal Biometry at 35 Weeks and Impact of Ultrasound-Delivery Interval: Comparison of Six Fetal Growth Standards

Small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants have been associated with increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes (APOs). In this work, we assess the predictive ability of the ultrasound-estimated percentile weight (EPW) at 35 weeks of gestational age to predict late-onset SGA and APOs, according to six growth standards, and whether the ultrasound–delivery interval influences the detection rate. To this purpose, we analyze a retrospective cohort study of 9585 singleton pregnancies. EPWs at 35 weeks were calculated to the customized Miguel Servet University Hospital (MSUH) and Figueras standards and the non-customized MSUH, Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF), INTERGROWTH-21st, and WHO standards. As results of our analysis, for a 10% false positive rate, the detection rates for SGA ranged between 48.9% with the customized Figueras standard (AUC 0.82) and 60.8% with the non-customized FMF standard (AUC 0.87). Detection rates to predict SGA by ultrasound–delivery interval (1–6 weeks) show higher detection rates as intervals decrease. APOs detection rates ranged from 27.0% with FMF to 7.9% with the Figueras standard. In conclusion, the ability of EPW to predict SGA at 35 weeks is good for all standards, and slightly better for non-customized standards. The APO detection rate is significantly greater for non-customized standards.

Swedish intrauterine growth reference ranges for estimated fetal weight

Fetal growth restriction is a strong risk factor for perinatal morbidity and mortality. Reliable standards are indispensable, both to assess fetal growth and to evaluate birthweight and early postnatal growth in infants born preterm. The aim of this study was to create updated Swedish reference ranges for estimated fetal weight (EFW) from gestational week 12-42. This prospective longitudinal multicentre study included 583 women without known conditions causing aberrant fetal growth. Each woman was assigned a randomly selected protocol of five ultrasound scans from gestational week 12 + 3 to 41 + 6. Hadlock's 3rd formula was used to estimate fetal weight. A two-level hierarchical regression model was employed to calculate the expected median and variance, expressed in standard deviations and percentiles, for EFW. EFW was higher for males than females. The reference ranges were compared with the presently used Swedish, and international reference ranges. Our reference ranges had higher EFW than the presently used Swedish reference ranges from gestational week 33, and higher median, 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles from gestational week 24 compared with INTERGROWTH-21st. The new reference ranges can be used both for assessment of intrauterine fetal weight and growth, and early postnatal growth in children born preterm.

Outcome-based comparison of SMFM and ISUOG definitions of fetal growth restriction

OBJECTIVE

The recent international guidelines by the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) and the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology (ISUOG) differ in their definitions of fetal growth restriction (FGR). Our aim was to compare the performance of the two definitions in predicting neonatal small-for-gestational age (SGA) and composite adverse neonatal outcome (ANO).

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of data from a prospective study of women referred for fetal growth ultrasound examination between 26 + 0 and 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. The SMFM and ISUOG guidelines were used to define pregnancies with FGR. The SMFM definition of FGR is estimated fetal weight (EFW) or abdominal circumference (AC) < 10^th percentile. The ISUOG-FGR definition follows the Delphi consensus criteria and includes either EFW or AC < 3^rd percentile or EFW or AC < 10^th percentile combined with abnormal Doppler findings or a decrease in growth centiles. The primary outcome was the prediction of neonatal SGA, defined as birth weight < 10^th percentile, and a composite of ANO, which was defined as one or more of: Grade-III or -IV intraventricular hemorrhage, respiratory distress syndrome, neonatal death, cord blood pH < 7.1, seizures and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit. Test characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value and positive (LR+) and negative likelihood ratios) and area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve were determined. The association between FGR detected by each definition and selected adverse outcomes was assessed using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 1054 pregnancies that met the inclusion criteria, 137 (13.0%) and 55 (5.2%) were defined as having FGR by the SMFM and ISUOG definitions, respectively. Composite ANO and SGA neonate each occurred in 139 (13.2%) pregnancies. For the prediction of neonatal SGA, the SMFM-FGR definition had a higher sensitivity (54.7%) than did the ISUOG definition (28.8%). The ISUOG-FGR definition had higher specificity (98.4% vs 93.3%), LR+ (18.0 vs 8.2) and PPV (72.7% vs 55.5%) than did the SMFM definition for the prediction of a SGA neonate. The SMFM- and ISUOG-FGR definitions had similarly poor performance in predicting composite ANO, with sensitivities of 15.1% and 10.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The SMFM definition of FGR is associated with a higher detection rate for SGA neonates but at the cost of some reduction in specificity. The ISUOG-FGR definition has a higher specificity, LR+ and PPV for the prediction of neonatal SGA. Both definitions of FGR performed poorly in predicting a composite ANO. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Maternal cardiac adaptation and fetal growth

BACKGROUND

Pregnancies with small-for-gestational-age fetuses are at increased risk of adverse maternal-fetal outcomes. Previous studies examining the relationship between maternal hemodynamics and fetal growth were mainly focused on high-risk pregnancies and those with fetuses with extreme birthweights, such as less than the 3rd or 10th percentile and assumed a similar growth pattern in fetuses above the 10th percentile throughout gestation.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the trends in maternal cardiac function, fetal growth, and oxygenation with advancing gestational age in a routine obstetrical population and all ranges of birthweight percentiles.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective, longitudinal study assessing maternal cardiac output and peripheral vascular resistance by bioreactance at 11⁺⁰ to 13⁺⁶, 19⁺⁰ to 24⁺⁰, 30⁺⁰ to 34⁺⁰, and 35⁺⁰ to 37⁺⁰ weeks' gestation, sonographic estimated fetal weight in the last 3 visits and the ratio of the middle cerebral artery by umbilical artery pulsatility indices or cerebroplacental ratio in the last 2 visits. Women were divided into the following 5 groups according to birthweight percentile: group 1, <10th percentile (n=261); group 2, 10 to 19.9 percentile (n=180); group 3, 20 to 29.9 percentile (n=189); group 4, 30 to 69.9 percentile (n=651); and group 5, ≥70th percentile (n=508). The multilevel linear mixed-effects model was performed to compare the repeated measures of hemodynamic variables and z scores of the estimated fetal weight and cerebroplacental ratio.

RESULTS

In visit 2, compared with visit 1, in all groups, cardiac output increased, and peripheral vascular resistance decreased. At visit 3, groups 1, 2, and 3, compared with 4 and 5, demonstrated an abrupt decrease in cardiac output and increase in peripheral vascular resistance. From visit 2, group 1 had a constant decline in estimated fetal weight, coinciding with the steepest decline in maternal cardiac output and rise in peripheral vascular resistance. In contrast, in groups 4 and 5, the estimated fetal weight had a stable or accelerative pattern, coinciding with the greatest increase in cardiac output and lowest peripheral vascular resistance. Groups 2 and 3 showed a stable growth pattern with intermediate cardiac output and peripheral vascular resistance. Increasing birthweight was associated with higher cerebroplacental ratio. Groups 3, 4, and 5 had stable cerebroplacental ratio across visits 3 and 4, whereas groups 1 and 2 demonstrated a significant decline (P<.001).

CONCLUSION

In a general obstetrical population, maternal cardiac adaptation at 32 weeks' gestation parallels the pattern of fetal growth and oxygenation; babies with birthweight<20th percentile have progressive decline in fetal cerebroplacental ratio, decline in maternal cardiac output, and increase in peripheral vascular resistance.

Reduced fetal growth velocity precedes antepartum fetal death

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether decreased fetal growth velocity precedes antepartum fetal death and to evaluate whether fetal growth velocity is a better predictor of antepartum fetal death compared to a single fetal biometric measurement at the last available ultrasound scan prior to diagnosis of demise.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, longitudinal study of 4285 singleton pregnancies in African-American women who underwent at least two fetal ultrasound examinations between 14 and 32 weeks of gestation and delivered a liveborn neonate (controls; n = 4262) or experienced antepartum fetal death (cases; n = 23). Fetal death was defined as death diagnosed at ≥ 20 weeks of gestation and confirmed by ultrasound examination. Exclusion criteria included congenital anomaly, birth at < 20 weeks of gestation, multiple gestation and intrapartum fetal death. The ultrasound examination performed at the time of fetal demise was not included in the analysis. Percentiles for estimated fetal weight (EFW) and individual biometric parameters were determined according to the Hadlock and Perinatology Research Branch/Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (PRB/NICHD) fetal growth standards. Fetal growth velocity was defined as the slope of the regression line of the measurement percentiles as a function of gestational age based on two or more measurements in each pregnancy.

RESULTS

Cases had significantly lower growth velocities of EFW (P < 0.001) and of fetal head circumference, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference and femur length (all P < 0.05) compared to controls, according to the PRB/NICHD and Hadlock growth standards. Fetuses with EFW growth velocity < 10^th percentile of the controls had a 9.4-fold and an 11.2-fold increased risk of antepartum death, based on the Hadlock and customized PRB/NICHD standards, respectively. At a 10% false-positive rate, the sensitivity of EFW growth velocity for predicting antepartum fetal death was 56.5%, compared to 26.1% for a single EFW percentile evaluation at the last available ultrasound examination, according to the customized PRB/NICHD standard.

CONCLUSIONS

Given that 74% of antepartum fetal death cases were not diagnosed as small-for-gestational age (EFW < 10^th percentile) at the last ultrasound examination when the fetuses were alive, alternative approaches are needed to improve detection of fetuses at risk of fetal death. Longitudinal sonographic evaluation to determine growth velocity doubles the sensitivity for prediction of antepartum fetal death compared to a single EFW measurement at the last available ultrasound examination, yet the performance is still suboptimal. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of Large-for-Gestational-Age Neonates by Different Growth Standards

OBJECTIVE

Compare the accuracy of the Hadlock, the NICHD, and the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) charts to detect large-for-gestational-age (LGA) and adverse neonatal outcomes (as a secondary outcome).

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis from a prospective study that included singleton non-anomalous gestations with growth ultrasound at 26-36 weeks. LGA was suspected with estimated fetal weight > 90^th percentile by the NICHD, FMF, and Hadlock charts. LGA was diagnosed with birth weight > 90^th percentile. We tested the performance of these charts to detect LGA and adverse neonatal outcomes (neonatal intensive care unit admission, Ph < 7.1, Apgar <7 at 5 minutes, seizures, and neonatal death) by calculating the area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value.

RESULTS

Of 1054 pregnancies, 123 neonates (12%) developed LGA. LGA was suspected in 58 (5.5%) by Hadlock, 229 (21.7%) by NICHD standard, and 231 (22%) by FMF chart. The NICHD standard (AUC: .79; 95% CI: .75-.83 vs. AUC .64; 95%CI: .6-.68; p = < .001) and FMF chart (AUC: .81 95% CI: .77-.85 vs. AUC .64; 95%CI: .6-.68; p = < .001) were more accurate than Hadlock. The FMF and NICHD had higher sensitivity (77.2 vs. 72.4 vs. 30.1%) but Hadlock had higher specificity for LGA (97.5 vs. 88.5 vs. 85.4%). All standards were poor predictors for adverse neonatal outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The NICHD and the FMF standards may increase the detection rate of LGA in comparison to the Hadlock chart. However, this may increase obstetrical interventions.

A hierarchical procedure to select intrauterine and extrauterine factors for methodological validation of preterm birth risk estimation

Background

Etiopathogenesis of preterm birth (PTB) is multifactorial, with a universe of risk factors interplaying between the mother and the environment. It is of utmost importance to identify the most informative factors in order to estimate the degree of PTB risk and trace an individualized profile. The aims of the present study were: 1) to identify all acknowledged risk factors for PTB and to select the most informative ones for defining an accurate model of risk prediction; 2) to verify predictive accuracy of the model and 3) to identify group profiles according to the degree of PTB risk based on the most informative factors.

Methods

The Maternal Frailty Inventory (MaFra) was created based on a systematic review of the literature including 174 identified intrauterine (IU) and extrauterine (EU) factors. A sample of 111 pregnant women previously categorized in low or high risk for PTB below 37 weeks, according to ACOG guidelines, underwent the MaFra Inventory. First, univariate logistic regression enabled p-value ordering and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) selected the model including the most informative MaFra factors. Second, random forest classifier verified the overall predictive accuracy of the model. Third, fuzzy c-means clustering assigned group membership based on the most informative MaFra factors.

Results

The most informative and parsimonious model selected through AIC included Placenta Previa, Pregnancy Induced Hypertension, Antibiotics, Cervix Length, Physical Exercise, Fetal Growth, Maternal Anxiety, Preeclampsia, Antihypertensives. The random forest classifier including only the most informative IU and EU factors achieved an overall accuracy of 81.08% and an AUC of 0.8122. The cluster analysis identified three groups of typical pregnant women, profiled on the basis of the most informative IU and EU risk factors from a lower to a higher degree of PTB risk, which paralleled time of birth delivery.

Conclusions

This study establishes a generalized methodology for building-up an evidence-based holistic risk assessment for PTB to be used in clinical practice. Relevant and essential factors were selected and were able to provide an accurate estimation of degree of PTB risk based on the most informative constellation of IU and EU factors.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12884-021-03654-3).

Personalized assessment of cervical length improves prediction of spontaneous preterm birth: a standard and a percentile calculator

BACKGROUND

A sonographic short cervix (length <25 mm during midgestation) is the most powerful predictor of preterm birth. Current clinical practice assumes that the same cervical length cutoff value should apply to all women when screening for spontaneous preterm birth, yet this approach may be suboptimal.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to (1) create a customized cervical length standard that considers relevant maternal characteristics and gestational age at sonographic examination and (2) assess whether the customization of cervical length evaluation improves the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth.

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective analysis comprises a cohort of 7826 pregnant women enrolled in a longitudinal protocol between January 2006 and April 2017 at the Detroit Medical Center. Study participants met the following inclusion criteria: singleton pregnancy, ≥1 transvaginal sonographic measurements of the cervix, delivery after 20 weeks of gestation, and available relevant demographics and obstetrical history information. Data from women without a history of preterm birth or cervical surgery who delivered at term without progesterone treatment (N=5188) were used to create a customized standard of cervical length. The prediction of the primary outcome, spontaneous preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation, was assessed in a subset of pregnancies (N=7336) that excluded cases with induced labor before 37 weeks of gestation. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and sensitivity at a fixed false-positive rate were calculated for screening at 20 to 23 6/7, 24 to 27 6/7, 28 to 31 6/7, and 32 to 35 6/7 weeks of gestation in asymptomatic patients. Survival analysis was used to determine which method is better at predicting imminent delivery among symptomatic women.

RESULTS

The median cervical length remained fundamentally unchanged until 20 weeks of gestation and subsequently decreased nonlinearly with advancing gestational age among women who delivered at term. The effects of parity and maternal weight and height on the cervical length were dependent on the gestational age at ultrasound examination (interaction, P<.05 for all). Parous women had a longer cervix than nulliparous women, and the difference increased with advancing gestation after adjusting for maternal weight and height. Similarly, maternal weight was nonlinearly associated with a longer cervix, and the effect was greater later in gestation. The sensitivity at a 10% false-positive rate for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation by a short cervix ranged from 29% to 40% throughout pregnancy, yet it increased to 50%, 50%, 53%, and 54% at 20 to 23 6/7, 24 to 27 6/7, 28 to 31 6/7, and 32 to 35 6/7 weeks of gestation, respectively, for a low, customized percentile (McNemar test, P<.001 for all). When a cervical length <25 mm was compared to the customized screening at 20 to 23 6/7 weeks of gestation by using a customized percentile cutoff value that ensured the same negative likelihood ratio for both screening methods, the customized approach had a significantly higher (about double) positive likelihood ratio in predicting spontaneous preterm birth at <33, <34, <35, <36, and <37 weeks of gestation. Among symptomatic women, the difference in survival between women with a customized cervical length percentile of ≥10th and those with a customized cervical length percentile of <10th was greater than the difference in survival between women with a cervical length ≥25 mm and those with a cervical length <25 mm.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the use of a cervical length <25 mm, a customized cervical length assessment (1) identifies more women at risk of spontaneous preterm birth and (2) improves the distinction between patients at risk for impending preterm birth in those who have an episode of preterm labor.

Obstetric and pediatric growth charts for the detection of late-onset fetal growth restriction and neonatal adverse outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Late-onset fetal growth restriction (FGR) has heterogeneous prenatal and postnatal diagnostic criteria. We compared the prenatal and postnatal diagnosis of late-onset FGR and their ability to predict adverse perinatal outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of 5442 consecutive singleton pregnancies that delivered beyond 34 + 0 weeks. Prenatal diagnosis of FGR was based on customized fetal growth standards and fetal Doppler while postnatal diagnosis was based on a birthweight <3rd percentile according to newborn charts (Olsen's charts and Intergrowth 21st century programme). Perinatal outcomes were analyzed depending on whether the diagnosis was prenatal, postnatal or both.

RESULTS

A total of 94 out of 5442 (1.7%) were diagnosed as late-onset FGR prenatally. Olsen's chart and Intergrowth 21st chart detected that 125/5442 (2.3%) and 106/5442 (2.0%) of infants had a birthweight <3rd percentile, respectively. These charts identified 35/94 (37.2%) and 40/94 (42.6%) of the newborns with a prenatal diagnosis of late-onset FGR. Prenatally diagnosed late-onset FGR infants were at a higher risk for hypoglycemia, jaundice and polycythemia. Both prenatally and postnatally diagnosed as late-onset FGR had a higher risk for respiratory distress syndrome when compared to non-FGR. The higher risks for intensive care admission and composite adverse outcomes were observed in those with a prenatal diagnosis of late-onset FGR that was confirmed after birth.

CONCLUSIONS

Current definitions of pre- and postnatal late-onset FGR do not match in more than half of cases. Infants with a prenatal or postnatal diagnosis of this condition have an increased risk of neonatal morbidity even if these diagnoses are not coincident.

Detection of small for gestational age in preterm prelabor rupture of membranes by Hadlock versus the Fetal Medicine Foundation growth charts

Objective

The primary outcome was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of neonatal small for gestational age (SGA) by the Hadlock and Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) charts in our cohort, followed by the ability to predict composite severe neonatal outcomes (SNO) in pregnancies with preterm prelabor rupture of membranes (PPROM).

Methods

This study was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of pregnancies with PPROM from 2015 to 2018, from 23 to 36 completed weeks of gestation. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the primary and secondary outcomes of the Hadlock and FMF fetal charts were calculated. The discriminatory ability of each chart was compared using the area under the receiver’s operating curves of clinical characteristics.

Results

Of the 106 women who met the inclusion criteria, 48 (45%) were screened positive using the FMF fetal growth chart and 22 (21%) were screened positive using the Hadlock chart. SGA was diagnosed in 12 infants (11%). Both fetal growth charts had comparable diagnostic accuracies and were statistically significant predictors of SGA (Hadlock: area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUC], 0.76, risk ratio [RR], 7.6, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5–23; and FMF: AUC, 0.76 RR, 13.3 95%CI 1.8–99.3). Both growth standards were poor predictors of SNO.

Conclusion

The Hadlock and FMF fetal growth charts have a similar accuracy to predict SGA in pregnancies complicated by PPROM. The FMF fetal growth chart may result in a 2-fold increase in positive screens, potentially increasing fetal surveillance.

Diagnostic accuracy of fetal growth charts for placenta-related fetal growth restriction

INTRODUCTION

The choice of fetal growth chart to be used in antenatal screening for fetal growth restriction (FGR) has an important impact on the proportion of fetuses diagnosed as small for gestational age (SGA), and on the detection rate for FGR. We aimed to compare diagnostic accuracy of SGA diagnosed using four different common fetal growth charts [Hadlock, Intergrowth-21st (IG21), World Health Organization (WHO), and National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD)], for abnormal placental pathology.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of data from a prospective cohort study in low-risk nulliparous women. The exposure was SGA (birthweight <10th centile for gestational age) using each of the four charts. The outcomes were one of three types of abnormal placental pathology associated with fetal growth restriction: maternal vascular malperfusion (MVM), chronic villitis, and fetal vascular malperfusion.

RESULTS

A total of 742 nulliparous women met the study criteria. The proportion of SGA was closest to the expected rate of 10% using the Hadlock chart (12.7%). The detection rates (DR) and false positive rates (FPR) for MVM pathology were similar for the Hadlock (DR = 53.1%, FPR = 10.8%), WHO (DR = 59.4%, FPR = 14.2%), and NICHD (DR = 53.1%, FPR = 12.3%) charts, and each was superior when compared to the IG21 chart (DR = 34.4%, FPR = 3.8%, p < 0.001). The diagnosis of SGA was associated with increased risks of preeclampsia and preterm birth for all four charts.

DISCUSSION

The selection of fetal growth chart to be used in screening programs for FGR has important implications with regard to the false positive and detection rate for FGR.

Do patients with a short cervix, with or without an ultrasound-indicated cerclage, have an increased risk for a small for gestational age newborn?

INTRODUCTION

Mothers with a short cervix have been shown to have increased risk of spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) and newborn morbidity. Those who require an ultrasound-indicated cerclage experience the highest rates of morbidity. Inflammation has been linked to a short cervix, and it has been linked to pregnancies affected by small for gestational age (SGA) newborns. To date, there are no studies that have investigated an association between a short cervix, with or without an ultrasound-indicated cerclage, and a SGA newborn.

METHODS

This was a case-control study examining all pregnancies with a transvaginal cervical length <25 mm found at their second trimester anatomy scan. Cases were subdivided into those who received an ultrasound-indicated cerclage (Group 1, n = 52) and those who did not (Group 2, n = 139). Controls were defined as pregnancies with a transvaginal cervical length >25 mm with no cerclage (Group 3, n = 186) whose due date was within 2 months of the case pregnancy. Each short cervix case was matched with a control from group 3 in a 1:1 ratio. The primary outcome was birthweight <10% (SGA). Unadjusted data was analyzed with simple odds ratios. A logistic regression was used to control for confounding variables and provide an adjusted odds ratios (aOR).

RESULTS

The incidence of SGA among cases overall (group 1 + group 2) was 13.6% (26/191). In group 3, the SGA incidence was 4.3% (8/186). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for a SGA infant was significant, 2.8 (95% CI 1.2, 6.6). Subgroup analysis showed that Group 1 had an increased risk for an SGA infant [aOR 4.9 (95% CI 1.8, 13.7)], but Group 2 did not show a significant finding [aOR 2.3 (95% CI 0.9, 5.7)].

CONCLUSION

Pregnancies complicated by a short cervical length <25mm, with or without a cerclage, were associated with an increased risk for a SGA newborn. Most of this significance was due to the pregnancies which received an ultrasound-indicated cerclage for a mid-trimester short cervix.

Peer review of third trimester abdominal circumference measurements

Background

Third trimester growth scans represent a significant proportion of the workload in obstetric ultrasound departments. The objective of these serial growth scans is to improve the antenatal detection of babies with fetal growth restriction. The aim of this paper is to describe a method of peer review for third trimester abdominal circumference measurements which is realistic within busy obstetric ultrasound departments in the UK.

Method

Twenty-two, third trimester, measured abdominal circumference images were randomly selected. Images were assessed subjectively by 12 sonographers using the image Criteria Achieved Score. For quantitative assessment, termed the Inter-operator Variability Score, three of the abdominal circumference (AC) images were blindly remeasured. Following this, a questionnaire was used to ascertain which image criteria sonographers considered most important and to reach an agreement on correct caliper placement.

Results

The least frequently met image criteria with the lowest Criteria Achieved Score related to an oblique abdominal circumference section. These included fetal kidney present (Criteria Achieved Score 24.6%), multiple oblique ribs (Criteria Achieved Score 39.4%) and oblique spine (Criteria Achieved Score 37.5%). Caliper placement was also identified as inconsistent.

Discussion

This study demonstrates that the perfect AC section is not always possible and sonographers use their professional judgement to determine whether an image is acceptable. Seventy-three percent of the images reviewed were of an acceptable standard. There can be inconsistencies in sonographer opinion regarding what is an acceptable third trimester abdominal circumference image. These differences need to be addressed to maximise the effectiveness of the third trimester ultrasound examination.

Conclusion

Peer review can be used to monitor scan quality and identify areas of inconsistency.

Prediction of Large for Gestational Age by Ultrasound at 35 Weeks and Impact of Ultrasound-Delivery Interval: Comparison of 6 Standards

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to assess the predictive ability of the ultrasound estimated percentile weight (EPW) at 35 weeks to predict large for gestational age (LGA) at term delivery according to 6 growth standards, including population, population-customized, and international references. The secondary objectives were to determine its predictive ability to detect adverse perinatal outcomes (APOs) and whether the ultrasound-delivery interval influences the detection rate of LGA newborns.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 9,585 singleton pregnancies. Maternal clinical characteristics, fetal ultrasound data obtained at 35 weeks, and pregnancy and perinatal outcomes were used to calculate EPWs to predict LGAs at delivery according to the customized and the non-customized (NC) Miguel Servet University Hospital (MSUH), the customized Figueras, the NC Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF), the NC INTERGROWTH-21st, and the NC World Health Organization (WHO) standards.

RESULTS

For a 10% false-positive rate, detection rates for total LGAs at delivery ranged from 31.2% with the WHO (area under the curve [AUC] 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.79) to 56.5% with the FMF standard (AUC 0.85; 95% CI, 0.84-0.86). Detection rates and values of AUCs to predict LGAs by ultrasound-delivery interval (range 1-6 weeks) show higher detection rates as the interval decreases. APO detection rates ranged from 2.5% with the WHO to 12.6% with the Figueras standard.

CONCLUSION

The predictive ability of ultrasound estimated fetal weight at 35 weeks to detect LGA infants is significantly greater for FMF and MSUH NC standards. In contrast, the APO detection rate is significantly greater for customized standards. The shorter ultrasound-delivery interval relates to better prediction rates.

Performance of different fetal growth charts in prediction of large-for-gestational age and associated neonatal morbidity in multiethnic obese population

OBJECTIVES

To examine the performance of different fetal growth charts in the prediction of large-for-gestational age (LGA) and associated neonatal morbidity at term in a multiethnic, obese population.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 253 non-anomalous, singleton, term pregnancies that underwent serial third-trimester ultrasound scans due to maternal body mass index ≥ 35 kg/m² . We compared the performance of the Hadlock, Gestation Related Optimal Weight (GROW), INTERGROWTH-21^st (IG-21), World Health Organization (WHO) and Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) fetal growth reference charts in the prediction of LGA at birth, defined as birth weight > 90^th percentile, and neonatal morbidity, defined as a composite of neonatal intensive care unit admission or 5-min Apgar score < 7.

RESULTS

In the study population, 53 (20.9%) infants were born LGA, 27 (10.7%) experienced neonatal morbidity and nine (3.6%) were LGA with associated neonatal morbidity. The Hadlock and GROW charts showed similar performance in predicting LGA, with sensitivity of 66.0% for both and specificity of 82.5% and 83.5%, respectively. The positive likelihood ratios (LR+) were 3.77 (95% CI, 2.64-5.40) and 4.00 (95% CI, 2.77-5.78), respectively. The IG-21, WHO and FMF charts performed similarly and had higher sensitivity of about 85%, with specificity between 66% and 72%. LR+ was 2.74 (95% CI, 2.16-3.47), 2.50 (95% CI, 2.00-3.12) and 3.03 (95% CI, 2.36-3.89), respectively. All charts had high sensitivity for predicting neonatal morbidity associated with LGA, with LR+ ranging between 2.35 and 3.61.

CONCLUSIONS

In our multiethnic, obese population, all fetal growth charts performed well in predicting LGA and associated neonatal morbidity. However, the choice of fetal reference chart is likely to affect intervention rates. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identification of the optimal growth charts for use in a preterm population: An Australian state-wide retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Preterm infants are a group at high risk of having experienced placental insufficiency. It is unclear which growth charts perform best in identifying infants at increased risk of stillbirth and other adverse perinatal outcomes. We compared 2 birthweight charts (population centiles and INTERGROWTH-21st birthweight centiles) and 3 fetal growth charts (INTERGROWTH-21st fetal growth charts, World Health Organization fetal growth charts, and Gestation Related Optimal Weight [GROW] customised growth charts) to identify which chart performed best in identifying infants at increased risk of adverse perinatal outcome in a preterm population.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all preterm infants born at 24.0 to 36.9 weeks gestation in Victoria, Australia, from 2005 to 2015 (28,968 records available for analysis). All above growth charts were applied to the population. Proportions classified as <5th centile and <10th centile by each chart were compared, as were proportions of stillborn infants considered small for gestational age (SGA, <10th centile) by each chart. We then compared the relative performance of non-overlapping SGA cohorts by each chart to our low-risk reference population (infants born appropriate size for gestational age [>10th and <90th centile] by all intrauterine charts [AGAall]) for the following perinatal outcomes: stillbirth, perinatal mortality (stillbirth or neonatal death), Apgar <4 or <7 at 5 minutes, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, suspicion of poor fetal growth leading to expedited delivery, and cesarean section. All intrauterine charts classified a greater proportion of infants as <5th or <10th centile than birthweight charts. The magnitude of the difference between birthweight and fetal charts was greater at more preterm gestations. Of the fetal charts, GROW customised charts classified the greatest number of infants as SGA (22.3%) and the greatest number of stillborn infants as SGA (57%). INTERGROWTH classified almost no additional infants as SGA that were not already considered SGA on GROW or WHO charts; however, those infants classified as SGA by INTERGROWTH had the greatest risk of both stillbirth and total perinatal mortality. GROW customised charts classified a larger proportion of infants as SGA, and these infants were still at increased risk of mortality and adverse perinatal outcomes compared to the AGAall population. Consistent with similar studies in this field, our study was limited in comparing growth charts by the degree of overlap, with many infants classified as SGA by multiple charts. We attempted to overcome this by examining and comparing sub-populations classified as SGA by only 1 growth chart.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, fetal charts classified greater proportions of preterm and stillborn infants as SGA, which more accurately reflected true fetal growth restriction. Of the intrauterine charts, INTERGROWTH classified the smallest number of preterm infants as SGA, although it identified a particularly high-risk cohort, and GROW customised charts classified the greatest number at increased risk of perinatal mortality.

Fetal Growth Restriction Prediction: How to Move beyond

The actual burden and future burden of the small-for-gestational-age (SGA) babies turn their screening in pregnancy a question of major concern for clinicians and policymakers. Half of stillbirths are due to growth restriction in utero, and possibly, a quarter of livebirths of low- and middle-income countries are SGA. Growing body of evidence shows their higher risk of adverse outcomes at any period of life, including increased rates of neurologic delay, noncommunicable chronic diseases (central obesity and metabolic syndrome), and mortality. Although there is no consensus regarding its definition, birthweight centile threshold, or follow-up, we believe birthweight <10th centile is the most suitable cutoff for clinical and epidemiological purposes. Maternal clinical factors have modest predictive accuracy; being born SGA appears to be of transgenerational heredity. Addition of ultrasound parameters improves prediction models, especially using estimated fetal weight and abdominal circumference in the 3rd trimester of pregnancy. Placental growth factor levels are decreased in SGA pregnancies, and it is the most promising biomarker in differentiating angiogenesis-related SGA from other causes. Unfortunately, however, only few societies recommend universal screening. SGA evaluation is the first step of a multidimensional approach, which includes adequate management and long-term follow-up of these newborns. Apart from only meliorating perinatal outcomes, we hypothesize SGA screening is a key for socioeconomic progress.