From climate to caribou: How manufactured uncertainty is affecting wildlife management

Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the range of boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat-mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a reconsideration of past ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.

Public opinion on the conflict between the conservation of at-risk species and the extraction of natural resources: The case of caribou in boreal forest

Conflicts between economic development and conservation are increasingly hampering efforts to restore imperiled wildlife populations. Public opinion can influence how these conflicts translate into conservation actions, encouraging stakeholders to express their views through various public channels. The outcome of these campaigns typically remains unknown. Via an online survey, we collected to the opinion of 1000 citizens of Québec, Canada, regarding the ongoing conflict between logging and the conservation of at-risk caribou populations (Rangifer tarandus). We found that people expect conservation actions that are sufficient to recover caribou populations, even if millions of government investment are required and jobs are lost in the process. When respondents learned that academic caribou researchers indicated that the two management strategies being studied by government would be insufficient for population recovery, one-third withdrew their support for either strategy. Age, gender and education all explain variation in public opinion, but it was the region of residence that most consistently explained variation in opinion. Residents of caribou-inhabited regions were less concerned about caribou conservation and more supportive of forestry than residents of other regions, reflecting regional differences in expected economic impacts of conservation, not negative interactions with caribou. In fact, most people supported strong conservation actions for the recovery of caribou populations, regardless of their socio-demographics. Our analysis provides general insights into how public opinion on the trade-off between conservation and economy is influenced by socio-demographics and scientific conclusions. We found that current government conservation actions (or lack thereof) are not in line with mainstream public opinion. Moreover, we show that making species at-risk lists does not ensure that the species will benefit from strong conservation actions without lengthy delays, even for a high-profile, flagship species like caribou. This observation echoes concerns about the fate of less charismatic, at-risk species, and thus about future biodiversity conservation efforts.

Lowering the rate of timber harvesting to mitigate impacts of climate change on boreal caribou habitat quality in eastern Canada

Many boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) have declined in Canada, a trend essentially driven by the increasing footprint of anthropogenic disturbances and the resulting habitat-mediated apparent competition that increases predation pressure. However, the influence of climate change on these ecological processes remains poorly understood. We evaluated how climate change will affect boreal caribou habitat over the 2030-2100 horizon and in a 9.94 Mha study area, using a climate-sensitive simulation ensemble that integrates climate-induced changes in stand dynamics, fire regime, and different levels of commercial timber harvesting. We assessed the relative importance of these three drivers under projections made using different radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Habitat quality was estimated from resource selection functions built with telemetry data collected from 121 caribou between 2004 and 2011 in 7 local populations. At the beginning of our simulations, caribou habitat was already structured along a south-to-north increasing quality gradient. Simulations revealed changes in forest cover that are driven by climate-induced variations in fire regime and scenarios of harvesting levels, resulting in the loss of older coniferous forests and an increase in deciduous stands. These changes induced a generalized decrease in the average habitat quality and in the percentage of high-quality habitat for caribou, and in a northward recession of suitable habitat. Timber harvesting was the most important agent of change for the 2030-2050 horizon, although it was slowly replaced by changes in fire regime until 2100. Our results clearly showed that it is possible to maintain the current average habitat quality for caribou in future scenarios that consider a reduction in harvested volumes, the only lever under our control. This suggests that we still have the capacity to conciliate socioeconomic development and caribou conservation imperatives in the face of climate change, an important issue debated throughout the species distribution range.

Multi-objective optimization can balance trade-offs among boreal caribou, biodiversity, and climate change objectives when conservation hotspots do not overlap

The biodiversity and climate change crises have led countries-including Canada-to commit to protect more land and inland waters and to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. Canada is also obligated to recover populations of at-risk species, including boreal caribou. Canada has the opportunity to expand its protected areas network to protect hotspots of high value for biodiversity and climate mitigation. However, co-occurrence of hotspots is rare. Here we ask: is it possible to expand the network to simultaneously protect areas important for boreal caribou, other species at risk, climate refugia, and carbon stores? We used linear programming to prioritize areas for protection based on these conservation objectives, and assessed how prioritization for multiple, competing objectives affected the outcome for each individual objective. Our multi-objective approach produced reasonably strong representation of value across objectives. Although trade-offs were required, the multi-objective outcome was almost always better than when we ignored one objective to maximize value for another, highlighting the risk of assuming that a plan based on one objective will also result in strong outcomes for others. Multi-objective optimization approaches could be used to plan for protected areas networks that address biodiversity and climate change objectives, even when hotspots do not co-occur.

Balancing Large-Scale Wildlife Protection and Forest Management Goals with a Game-Theoretic Approach

When adopted, wildlife protection policies in Canadian forests typically cover large areas and affect multiple economic agents working in these landscapes. Such measures are likely to increase the costs of timber for forestry companies operating in the area, which may hinder their acceptance of the policies unless harvesting remains profitable. We propose a bi-level wildlife protection problem that accounts for the profit-maximizing behavior of forestry companies operating in an area subject to protection. We consider the regulator with a wildlife protection mandate and forestry companies licensed to harvest public forest lands. We depict the relationship between the regulator and forestry companies as a leader-follower Stackelberg game. The leader sets the protected area target for each license area and the followers adjust their strategies to maximize payoffs while meeting the protection target set by the leader. The leader’s objective is to maximize the area-wide protection of spatially contiguous habitat while accounting for the followers’ profit-maximizing behavior. We apply the approach to investigate habitat protection policies for woodland caribou in the Churchill range, Ontario, Canada. We compare the game-theoretic solutions with solutions that do not consider the forest companies’ objectives and also with solutions equalizing the revenue losses among the companies.

Ten bridges on the road to recovering Canada’s endangered species

Wildlife is declining around the world. Many developed nations have enacted legislation on endangered species protection and provide funding for wildlife recovery. Protecting endangered species is also supported by the public and judiciary. Yet, despite what appear as enabling conditions, wild species continue to decline. Our paper explores pathways to endangered species recovery by analyzing the barriers that have been identified in Canada, the United States, and Australia. We summarize these findings based on Canada’s Species at Risk Conservation Cycle (assessment, protection, recovery planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation) and then identify 10 “bridges” that could help overcome these barriers and bend our current trajectory of wildlife loss to recovery. These bridges include ecosystem approaches to recovery, building capacity for community co-governance, linking wildlife recovery to ecosystem services, and improving our storytelling about the loss and recovery of wildlife. The focus of our conclusions is the Canadian setting, but our findings can be applied in other national and subnational settings to reverse the decline of wildlife and halt extinction.

Mind the gap: Coping with delay in environmental governance

Gaps between public policy goals and the state of the environment are often significant. However, while goal failures in environmental governance are studied in a number of disciplines, the knowledge on the various causes behind delayed goal achievement is still incomplete. In this article we propose a new framework for analysis of delay mechanisms in science and policy, with the intention to provide a complementary lens for describing, analysing and counteracting delay in environmental governance. The framework is based on case-study findings from recent research focusing on goal-failures in policies for climate change, hazardous chemicals, biodiversity loss and eutrophication. It is also related to previous research on science and policy processes and their interactions. We exemplify the framework with two delay mechanisms that we consider particularly important to highlight-denial of science and decision thresholds. We call for further research in the field, for development of the framework, and not least for increased attention to delay mechanisms in environmental policy review and development on national as well as international levels.

When the protection of a threatened species depends on the economy of a foreign nation

A significant challenge of conservation biology is to preserve species in places where their critical habitat also attracts significant economic interest. The problem is compounded when species distributions occur across large spatial extents. Threatened boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) epitomize this problem: their critical habitat encompasses a vast expanse of forest that also supplies much of Canada’s merchantable timber. Boreal caribou were protected under the Canada Species at Risk Act in 2003. We investigated putative drivers of reduced disturbance for caribou habitat since then. Where the cumulative logging footprint slowed within caribou habitat, this has resulted neither from decreases in annual allowable cut of timber nor the creation or expansion of protected areas. Rather, it has fluctuated with the American economy relative to that of Canada. For each $0.05 US lost over the $CAD, 129 km² of caribou habitat was not disturbed by logging in a given year. Recent population declines have been occurring even though logging typically remained at <70% of allowed levels. Our study raises concerns about how caribou are functionally being conserved under the current application of existing legislation. In this globalized world, the economy of foreign nations is increasingly likely to govern national conservation objectives.