The molecular epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in six cities in Britain and Ireland

Milestone house: The story of a hospice for people with HIV/AIDS

The HIV/AIDS epidemic of the early 1980s has been extensively documented, with all its epidemiological, scientific and medical impacts. Cultural implications for many sectors of society have been profound and long-lasting. Some areas merit reflection for their ingenuity in the face of a crisis and the effect they have had on clinical practice. This report gives an account of a venture into the unknown territory of palliative care. Described here is a group of young people and their families propelled into a nightmarish condition. Those involved were outlawed and stigmatised, suffering from a disease leading to their inevitable death. By association with this group, carers and medical staff were left to interpret unhelpful guidelines and to venture into unknown therapeutic territory, sometimes beyond the margins of conventional practice.

Recent and Rapid Transmission of HIV Among People Who Inject Drugs in Scotland Revealed Through Phylogenetic Analysis

Background

Harm reduction has dramatically reduced HIV incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID). In Glasgow, Scotland, <10 infections/year have been diagnosed among PWID since the mid-1990s. However, in 2015 a sharp rise in diagnoses was noted among PWID; many were subtype C with 2 identical drug-resistant mutations and some displayed low avidity, suggesting the infections were linked and recent.

Methods

We collected Scottish pol sequences and identified closely related sequences from public databases. Genetic linkage was ascertained among 228 Scottish, 1820 UK, and 524 global sequences. The outbreak cluster was extracted to estimate epidemic parameters.

Results

All 104 outbreak sequences originated from Scotland and contained E138A and V179E. Mean genetic distance was <1% and mean time between transmissions was 6.7 months. The average number of onward transmissions consistently exceeded 1, indicating that spread was ongoing.

Conclusions

In contrast to other recent HIV outbreaks among PWID, harm reduction services were not clearly reduced in Scotland. Nonetheless, the high proportion of individuals with a history of homelessness (45%) suggests that services were inadequate for those in precarious living situations. The high prevalence of hepatitis C (>90%) is indicative of sharing of injecting equipment. Monitoring the epidemic phylogenetically in real time may accelerate public health action.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Europe: An overview

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) is characterised by vast genetic diversity. Globally circulating HIV-1 viruses are classified into distinct phylogenetic strains (subtypes, sub-subtypes) and several recombinant forms. Here we describe the characteristics and evolution of European HIV-1 epidemic over time through a review of published literature and updated queries of existing HIV-1 sequence databases. HIV-1 in Western and Central Europe was introduced in the early-1980s in the form of subtype B, which is still the predominant clade. However, in Eastern Europe (Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries and Russia) the predominant strain, introduced into Ukraine in the mid-1990s, is subtype A (A_FSU) with transmission mostly occurring in People Who Inject Drugs (PWID). In recent years, the epidemic is evolving towards a complex tapestry with an increase in the prevalence of non-B subtypes and recombinants in Western and Central Europe. Non-B epidemics are mainly associated with immigrants, heterosexuals and females but more recently, non-B clades have also spread amongst groups where non-B strains were previously absent - non-immigrant European populations and amongst men having sex with men (MSM). In some countries, non-B clades have spread amongst the native population, for example subtype G in Portugal and subtype A in Greece, Albania and Cyprus. Romania provides a unique case where sub-subtype F1 has predominated throughout the epidemic. In contrast, HIV-1 epidemic in FSU countries remains more homogeneous with A_FSU clade predominating in all countries. The differences between the evolution of the Western epidemic and the Eastern epidemic may be attributable to differences in transmission risk behaviours, lifestyle and the patterns of human mobility. The study of HIV-1 epidemic diversity provides a useful tool by which we can understand the history of the pandemic in addition to allowing us to monitor the spread and growth of the epidemic over time.

Molecular and phylogeographic analysis of human immuno-deficiency virus type 1 strains infecting treatment-naive patients from Kigali, Rwanda

This study aimed at describing the genetic subtype distribution of HIV-1 strains circulating in Kigali and their epidemiological link with the HIV-1 strains from the five countries surrounding Rwanda. One hundred and thirty eight pol (RT and PR) sequences from 116 chronically- and 22 recently-infected antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve patients from Kigali were generated and subjected to HIV drug resistance (HIV-DR), phylogenetic and recombinant analyses in connection with 366 reference pol sequences from Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania and Uganda (Los Alamos database). Among the Rwandan samples, subtype A1 predominated (71.7%), followed by A1/C recombinants (18.1%), subtype C (5.8%), subtype D (2.9%), one A1/D recombinant (0.7%) and one unknown subtype (0.7%). Thirteen unique and three multiple A1/C recombinant forms were identified. No evidence for direct transmission events was found within the Rwandan strains. Molecular characteristics of HIV-1 were similar between chronically and recently-infected individuals and were not significantly associated with demographic or social factors. Our report suggests that the HIV-1 epidemic in Kigali is characterized by the emergence of A1/C recombinants and is not phylogenetically connected with the HIV-1 epidemic in the five neighboring countries. The relatively low level of transmitted HIV-DR mutations (2.9%) reported here indicates the good performance of the ART programme in Rwanda. However, the importance of promoting couples' counseling, testing and disclosure during HIV prevention strategies is highlighted.

Phylodynamic analysis of a viral infection network

Viral infections by sexual and droplet transmission routes typically spread through a complex host-to-host contact network. Clarifying the transmission network and epidemiological parameters affecting the variations and dynamics of a specific pathogen is a major issue in the control of infectious diseases. However, conventional methods such as interview and/or classical phylogenetic analysis of viral gene sequences have inherent limitations and often fail to detect infectious clusters and transmission connections. Recent improvements in computational environments now permit the analysis of large datasets. In addition, novel analytical methods have been developed that serve to infer the evolutionary dynamics of virus genetic diversity using sample date information and sequence data. This type of framework, termed "phylodynamics," helps connect some of the missing links on viral transmission networks, which are often hard to detect by conventional methods of epidemiology. With sufficient number of sequences available, one can use this new inference method to estimate theoretical epidemiological parameters such as temporal distributions of the primary infection, fluctuation of the pathogen population size, basic reproductive number, and the mean time span of disease infectiousness. Transmission networks estimated by this framework often have the properties of a scale-free network, which are characteristic of infectious and social communication processes. Network analysis based on phylodynamics has alluded to various suggestions concerning the infection dynamics associated with a given community and/or risk behavior. In this review, I will summarize the current methods available for identifying the transmission network using phylogeny, and present an argument on the possibilities of applying the scale-free properties to these existing frameworks.

The HIV Epidemic: High-Income Countries

The HIV epidemic in higher-income nations is driven by receptive anal intercourse, injection drug use through needle/syringe sharing, and, less efficiently, vaginal intercourse. Alcohol and noninjecting drug use increase sexual HIV vulnerability. Appropriate diagnostic screening has nearly eliminated blood/blood product-related transmissions and, with antiretroviral therapy, has reduced mother-to-child transmission radically. Affected subgroups have changed over time (e.g., increasing numbers of Black and minority ethnic men who have sex with men). Molecular phylogenetic approaches have established historical links between HIV strains from central Africa to those in the United States and thence to Europe. However, Europe did not just receive virus from the United States, as it was also imported from Africa directly. Initial introductions led to epidemics in different risk groups in Western Europe distinguished by viral clades/sequences, and likewise, more recent explosive epidemics linked to injection drug use in Eastern Europe are associated with specific strains. Recent developments in phylodynamic approaches have made it possible to obtain estimates of sequence evolution rates and network parameters for epidemics.

Transmission network parameters estimated from HIV sequences for a nationwide epidemic

BACKGROUND

Many studies of sexual behavior have shown that individuals vary greatly in their number of sexual partners over time, but it has proved difficult to obtain parameter estimates relating to the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission except in small-scale contact tracing studies. Recent developments in molecular phylodynamics have provided new routes to obtain these parameter estimates, and current clinical practice provides suitable data for entire infected populations.

METHODS

A phylodynamic analysis was performed on partial pol gene sequences obtained for routine clinical care from 14,560 individuals, representing approximately 60% of the HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) under care in the United Kingdom.

RESULTS

Among individuals linked to others in the data set, 29% are linked to only 1 individual, 41% are linked to 2-10 individuals, and 29% are linked to ≥10 individuals. The right-skewed degree distribution can be approximated by a power law, but the data are best fitted by a Waring distribution for all time depths. For time depths of 5-7 years, the distribution parameter ρ lies within the range that indicates infinite variance.

CONCLUSIONS

The transmission network among UK MSM is characterized by preferential association such that a randomly distributed intervention would not be expected to stop the epidemic.

A classification approach for genotyping viral sequences based on multidimensional scaling and linear discriminant analysis

BACKGROUND

Accurate classification into genotypes is critical in understanding evolution of divergent viruses. Here we report a new approach, MuLDAS, which classifies a query sequence based on the statistical genotype models learned from the known sequences. Thus, MuLDAS utilizes full spectra of well characterized sequences as references, typically of an order of hundreds, in order to estimate the significance of each genotype assignment.

RESULTS

MuLDAS starts by aligning the query sequence to the reference multiple sequence alignment and calculating the subsequent distance matrix among the sequences. They are then mapped to a principal coordinate space by multidimensional scaling, and the coordinates of the reference sequences are used as features in developing linear discriminant models that partition the space by genotype. The genotype of the query is then given as the maximum a posteriori estimate. MuLDAS tests the model confidence by leave-one-out cross-validation and also provides some heuristics for the detection of 'outlier' sequences that fall far outside or in-between genotype clusters. We have tested our method by classifying HIV-1 and HCV nucleotide sequences downloaded from NCBI GenBank, achieving the overall concordance rates of 99.3% and 96.6%, respectively, with the benchmark test dataset retrieved from the respective databases of Los Alamos National Laboratory.

CONCLUSIONS

The highly accurate genotype assignment coupled with several measures for evaluating the results makes MuLDAS useful in analyzing the sequences of rapidly evolving viruses such as HIV-1 and HCV. A web-based genotype prediction server is available at http://www.muldas.org/MuLDAS/.

Molecular phylodynamics of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in the United Kingdom

The heterosexual risk group has become the largest HIV infected group in the United Kingdom during the last 10 years, but little is known of the network structure and dynamics of viral transmission in this group. The overwhelming majority of UK heterosexual infections are of non-B HIV subtypes, indicating viruses originating among immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa. The high rate of HIV evolution, combined with the availability of a very high density sample of viral sequences from routine clinical care has allowed the phylodynamics of the epidemic to be investigated for the first time. Sequences of the viral protease and partial reverse transcriptase coding regions from 11,071 patients infected with HIV of non-B subtypes were studied. Of these, 2774 were closely linked to at least one other sequence by nucleotide distance. Including the closest sequences from the global HIV database identified 296 individuals that were in UK-based groups of 3 or more individuals. There were a total of 8 UK-based clusters of 10 or more, comprising 143/2774 (5%) individuals, much lower than the figure of 25% obtained earlier for men who have sex with men (MSM). Sample dates were incorporated into relaxed clock phylogenetic analyses to estimate the dates of internal nodes. From the resulting time-resolved phylogenies, the internode lengths, used as estimates of maximum transmission intervals, had a median of 27 months overall, over twice as long as obtained for MSM (14 months), with only 2% of transmissions occurring in the first 6 months after infection. This phylodynamic analysis of non-B subtype HIV sequences representing over 40% of the estimated UK HIV-infected heterosexual population has revealed heterosexual HIV transmission in the UK is clustered, but on average in smaller groups and is transmitted with slower dynamics than among MSM. More effective intervention to restrict the epidemic may therefore be feasible, given effective diagnosis programmes.

Since 1995, HIV among heterosexuals in the UK increased to the point where the total number of heterosexuals infected with HIV, predominantly of non-B subtypes, exceeds the number of HIV-positive homosexual men. To understand the dynamics of this epidemic, we have applied the novel technique of phylodynamics to the analysis of viral sequences taken in the course of routine clinical care from approximately 40% of the HIV-infected heterosexual population in the UK. Phylodynamics reconstructs the pattern of viral sequence divergence in time, revealing the size of transmission clusters and the dynamics of transmission within them. Of 11,071 patients studied, 296 were linked to at least two others in the UK. There were 8 clusters comprising 10 or more individuals among these, yielding a total of 143 or 5% of all individuals with links, much lower than seen earlier among homosexual men (25%). Viral transmissions within clusters also occurred less rapidly, only 2% being dated to the first 6 months of infection, compared to 25% among homosexual men. Overall, transmission clusters exist in the UK heterosexual HIV epidemic but they are generally smaller than among homosexuals; onward transmission occurs less rapidly and is not associated with acute HIV infection.

Tracing the HIV-1 subtype B mobility in Europe: a phylogeographic approach

BACKGROUND

The prevalence and the origin of HIV-1 subtype B, the most prevalent circulating clade among the long-term residents in Europe, have been studied extensively. However the spatial diffusion of the epidemic from the perspective of the virus has not previously been traced.

RESULTS

In the current study we inferred the migration history of HIV-1 subtype B by way of a phylogeography of viral sequences sampled from 16 European countries and Israel. Migration events were inferred from viral phylogenies by character reconstruction using parsimony. With regard to the spatial dispersal of the HIV subtype B sequences across viral phylogenies, in most of the countries in Europe the epidemic was introduced by multiple sources and subsequently spread within local networks. Poland provides an exception where most of the infections were the result of a single point introduction. According to the significant migratory pathways, we show that there are considerable differences across Europe. Specifically, Greece, Portugal, Serbia and Spain, provide sources shedding HIV-1; Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg, on the other hand, are migratory targets, while for Denmark, Germany, Italy, Israel, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK we inferred significant bidirectional migration. For Poland no significant migratory pathways were inferred.

CONCLUSION

Subtype B phylogeographies provide a new insight about the geographical distribution of viral lineages, as well as the significant pathways of virus dispersal across Europe, suggesting that intervention strategies should also address tourists, travellers and migrants.

Episodic sexual transmission of HIV revealed by molecular phylodynamics

BACKGROUND

The structure of sexual contact networks plays a key role in the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections, and their reconstruction from interview data has provided valuable insights into the spread of infection. For HIV, the long period of infectivity has made the interpretation of contact networks more difficult, and major discrepancies have been observed between the contact network and the transmission network revealed by viral phylogenetics. The high rate of HIV evolution in principle allows for detailed reconstruction of links between virus from different individuals, but often sampling has been too sparse to describe the structure of the transmission network. The aim of this study was to analyze a high-density sample of an HIV-infected population using recently developed techniques in phylogenetics to infer the short-term dynamics of the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Sequences of the protease and reverse transcriptase coding regions from 2,126 patients, predominantly MSM, from London were compared: 402 of these showed a close match to at least one other subtype B sequence. Nine large clusters were identified on the basis of genetic distance; all were confirmed by Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) phylogenetic analysis. Overall, 25% of individuals with a close match with one sequence are linked to 10 or more others. Dated phylogenies of the clusters using a relaxed clock indicated that 65% of the transmissions within clusters took place between 1995 and 2000, and 25% occurred within 6 mo after infection. The likelihood that not all members of the clusters have been identified renders the latter observation conservative.

CONCLUSIONS

Reconstruction of the HIV transmission network using a dated phylogeny approach has revealed the HIV epidemic among MSM in London to have been episodic, with evidence of multiple clusters of transmissions dating to the late 1990s, a period when HIV prevalence is known to have doubled in this population. The quantitative description of the transmission dynamics among MSM will be important for parameterization of epidemiological models and in designing intervention strategies.

Autochthonous horizontal transmission of a CRF02_AG strain revealed by a human immunodeficiency virus type 1 diversity survey in a small city in inner state of Rio de Janeiro, Southeast Brazil

As part of an ongoing study on the features of AIDS spread towards small cities and rural areas, we present a molecular survey of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) polymerase sequences recovered between 2004 and 2006 from 71 patients receiving care in the city of Saquarema, inner state of Rio de Janeiro. Phylogenetic reconstructions found the two prevalent lineages in the state (subtypes B [59 strains, 83.1%], F1 [6 strains; 8.4%], and BF1 recombinants [four strains; 5.6%]), as well as two (2.8%) CRF02_AG strains, which seems to be an emerging lineage in the capital. These CRF02_AG sequences were recovered from a married heterosexual couple who never traveled abroad, thus providing the first molecular evidence of autochthonous horizontal transmission of this lineage of major global importance. Also, three phylogenetic clusters of strains recovered from a total of 18.3% of the cohort were uncovered. Their close genetic relatedness suggests they were recovered from patients who probably took part in the same chain of viral spread. In conjunction with our previous surveys from inner Rio de Janeiro, these results suggest that although small cities harbor unique molecular features of HIV-1 infection, they also clearly reflect and may rapidly absorb the diversity recorded in large urban centers.

Assessing the effects of human mixing patterns on human immunodeficiency virus-1 interhost phylogenetics through social network simulation

Geneticists seeking to understand HIV-1 evolution among human hosts generally assume that hosts represent a panmictic population. Social science research demonstrates that the network patterns over which HIV-1 spreads are highly nonrandom, but the effect of these patterns on the genetic diversity of HIV-1 and other sexually transmitted pathogens has yet to be thoroughly examined. In addition, interhost phylogenetic models rarely account explicitly for genetic diversity arising from intrahost dynamics. This study outlines a graph-theoretic framework (exponential random graph modeling, ERGM) for the estimation, inference, and simulation of dynamic partnership networks. This approach is used to simulate HIV-1 transmission and evolution under eight mixing patterns resembling those observed in empirical human populations, while simultaneously incorporating intrahost viral diversity. Models of parametric growth fit panmictic populations well, yielding estimates of total viral effective population on the order of the product of infected host size and intrahost effective viral population size. Populations exhibiting patterns of nonrandom mixing differ more widely in estimates of effective population size they yield, however, and reconstructions of population dynamics can exhibit severe errors if panmixis is assumed. I discuss implications for HIV-1 phylogenetics and the potential for ERGM to provide a general framework for addressing these issues.

Surveillance of HIV-1 subtypes among heterosexuals in England and Wales, 1997-2000

The molecular diversity and demographic characteristics among 976 anti-HIV-1-positive heterosexuals attending 15 sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics participating in an unlinked anonymous HIV prevalence serosurvey in England and Wales during 1997-2000 were investigated. Subtypes were assigned by heteroduplex mobility assay or sequencing of the p17/p24 region of gag and the V3/V4 region of env and by sequencing of the protease gene. Overall, there was no significant change in the subtype distribution, with subtype C accounting for the majority (32%) of subtyped infections. Subtypes B (29%), A (12%), circulating recombinant forms (CRFs, 9%), unique recombinant forms (URFs, 8%), and subtypes D-H (8%) were also detected. Thirty-nine percent of infections in men were with subtype B, whereas subtype C was most common (38%) in women. Logistic regression analyses showed the relative risk (RR) of infection with a non-B subtype, compared with subtype B, to be greater in African-born individuals (RR = 28.9, P < 0.01), among newly diagnosed infections (RR = 3.4, P < 0.01), and in women (RR = 2.4, P < 0.01). These findings indicate a high level of genetic diversity among HIV-infected heterosexual STI clinic attendees in England and Wales. Recently, subtype C has become most prevalent, particularly in younger age groups, suggesting recent acquisition of this viral strain. The high proportion of non-B, CRF, and URF infections among UK-born individuals is consistent with mixing between migrants and UK-born individuals in England and Wales. As migration patterns change, continued monitoring of HIV genetic diversity will aid understanding of transmission patterns.

Identification of shared populations of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infecting microglia and tissue macrophages outside the central nervous system

Infection of microglia and other cells of the macrophage/monocyte lineage in the central nervous system (CNS) by human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1) underlies the development of giant cell encephalitis (GCE). It is currently unknown whether GCE depends on the emergence of virus populations specifically adapted to replicate in cells of the monocyte/macrophage lineage and whether this also leads to the specific targeting of macrophages in other nonlymphoid tissues. Autopsy samples from lymph node, brain (frontal region), lung, and full-thickness colon sections were obtained from nine study subjects with GCE and from nine without. The two groups showed no significant differences in CD4 counts, disease progression, or treatment history before death. Genetic relatedness between variants recovered from lymph node and nonlymphoid tissues was assessed by sequence comparison of V3 and p17(gag) regions using a newly developed method that scores the sample composition at successive nodes in a neighbor-joining tree. The association index enabled objective, numerical comparisons on the degree of tissue compartmentalization to be made. High proviral loads and p24 antigen expression in the brain were confined to the nine individuals with GCE. GCE was also associated with significantly higher proviral loads in colon samples (median of the GCE(+) group: 1,010 copies/10(6) cells; median of GCE(-) group, 10/10(6) cells; P = 0.006). In contrast, there were no significant differences in proviral load between the GCE(+) and GCE(-) groups in lymph node or lung samples, where HIV infection was manifested predominantly by infiltrates of lymphoid cells. V3 sequences from brain samples of individuals with GCE showed the greatest compartmentalization from those of lymph node, although samples from other tissues, particularly the colon, frequently contained variants phylogenetically related to those found in brain. The existence of shared, distinct populations of HIV specifically distributed in cells of the monocyte/macrophage lineage was further indicated by immunocytochemical detection of CD68(+), multinucleated giant cells expressing p24 antigen in samples of lung and colon in two individuals with GCE. This study provides the basis for future investigation of possible phenotypic similarities that underline the shared distributions of HIV variants infecting microglia and tissue macrophages outside the CNS.

Phylogenetic reconstruction of intrapatient evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1: predominance of drift and purifying selection

The intra-host evolution of 73 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 quasispecies was analysed by split decomposition analysis. Non-synonymous and synonymous nucleotide substitutions were counted along the shortest path connecting all sequences and compared with the numbers expected under the assumption of a random model of mutation. For the majority of substitutions, drift and negative selection seemed to prevail.

Phylogenetic analysis of multiple heterosexual transmission events involving subtype b of HIV type 1

Between 1996 and 1999 thirteen cases of HIV infection were detected in Doncaster, a small town in the north of England (population approximately 250,000). A complex network of shared sexual histories involving local nightclubs linked these cases, with the only known risk factor being heterosexual intercourse. A series of frozen blood samples was collected in 1998-1999 and amplified by PCR to generate full-length gp120 clones. Sequencing demonstrated that all the transmission events in this heterosexual group involved the B subtype of HIV-1. When relationships between the samples were assessed it became clear that these 13 cases represented at least three separate strains of HIV-1, indicating that HIV is well established in this community. Eleven of the 13 cases were related, forming two distinct groups. Further investigation revealed that one group contained five patients whose general health was good and who were not receiving HAART. In contrast, the second group of six patients, including the putative index case, were symptomatic, receiving HAART, and may have been infected with a CXCR-4-utilizing virus. Several of the cases that were linked by genetic criteria were not linked by contact tracing, implying that further undiagnosed cases may exist in this community. To our knowledge, this is the largest outbreak of HIV studied within the heterosexual community in the United Kingdom to date, suggesting that this route of infection is becoming more common within the United Kingdom.

The origin and evolution of hepatitis viruses in humans

The spread and origins of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in human populations have been the subject of extensive investigations, not least because of the importance this information would provide in predicting clinical outcomes and controlling spread of HCV in the future. However, in the absence of historical and archaeological records of infection, the evolution of HCV and other human hepatitis viruses can only be inferred indirectly from their epidemiology and by genetic analysis of contemporary virus populations. Some information on the history of the latter may be obtained by dating the time of divergence of various genotypes of HCV, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and the non-pathogenic hepatitis G virus (HGV)/GB virus-C (GBV-C). However, the relatively recent times predicted for the origin of these viruses fit poorly with their epidemiological distributions and the recent evidence for species-associated variants of HBV and HGV/GBV-C in a wide range of non-human primates. The apparent conservatism of viruses over long periods implied by these latter observations may be the result of constraints on sequence change peculiar to viruses with single-stranded genomes, or with overlapping reading frames. Large population sizes and intense selection pressures that optimize fitness may be the factors that set virus evolution apart from that of their hosts.

National surveillance of HIV-1 subtypes for England and Wales: design, methods, and initial findings

The HIV-1 infections detected in an ongoing national unlinked anonymous HIV surveillance program were subtyped and analyzed according to demographic and risk characteristics. Of the 893 anti--HIV-1--positive specimens allocated to an exposure group, 70% could be subtyped. Almost 25% of infections subtyped were non-B, mostly subtypes A, C, and D. Non-B infections were rare in homosexual and bisexual men and in drug injectors. Forty percent of infections in heterosexual men attending genitourinary medicine clinics were non-B subtypes; of these, 25% were subtype A infections and 59% were subtype C infections. For female clinic attendees, 61% were non-B subtype infections, of which 48% were subtype A infections and 42% were subtype C infections. Of the clinic attendees born in the United Kingdom and Europe, 14% of the men and 35% of the women were infected with non-B subtypes. In contrast, 78% of infections in antenatal patients were non-B subtypes, of which 61% were subtype A and 29% were subtype C. Extrapolation to the estimated 29,700 prevalent adult infections in the United Kingdom indicates that approximately 8,100 (27%) such infections are non-B subtypes and that these are found almost entirely in heterosexuals. The findings suggest spread of infection of non-B subtypes to heterosexuals born in the United Kingdom from individuals infected in regions of high prevalence.

Using phylogenetic analysis to trace HIV-1 migration among western European injecting drug users seroconverting from 1984 to 1997

OBJECTIVE

To reconstruct the epidemiological relationships of the HIV epidemics among injecting drug users (IDU) in western Europe.

METHODS

HIV env V3 sequences of and epidemiological data were obtained from 145 IDU who seroconverted in three sequential periods: 1984-1988, 1989-1992 and 1993-1997. The sequences were phylogenetically analysed and examined for signature patterns characteristic of northern European IDU, including the conserved GGC codon in the V3 loop.

RESULTS

Subpopulations of genetically related HIV strains were observed in Italy, France, Scotland and Spain, in contrast to the Netherlands, Austria and Switzerland. This difference between the two groups of countries suggests that the HIV epidemics amongst IDU in the latter group was caused by multiple virus introductions. In Edinburgh and the surrounding area, most IDU were infected with the same GGC strain over the 12-year study period. The epidemic among IDU in north-western Europe started with GGC viruses, whereas in south-western Europe non-GGC viruses predominated. This geographical separation has faded during the course of the epidemic, most likely because of virus exchange among IDU populations.

The interface between epidemiology and population genetics

Modern biology increasingly integrates disparate disciplines. Here, Steve Paterson and Mark Viney examine the interface between epidemiology and population genetics. They argue that infection and inheritance can be considered as analogous processes, and that epidemiology and population genetics share many common features. They consider the potential for existing population genetic theory to dissect epidemiological patterns in field studies and they consider other relationships between genetics and epidemiology that provide a research challenge for the future.

A single measurement of CD38CD8 cells in HIV+, long-term surviving injecting drug users distinguishes those who will progress to AIDS from those who will remain stable

This study compares the predictive power of a single measurement of CD8+CD38+, CD8+CD45RO+ or CD8+CD38+CD45RO+ subpopulations in predicting progression to AIDS in a cohort of HIV+ long-term surviving injecting drug users. The results showed that both the total CD8+ percentage, and the CD8+CD38+ and CD8+CD38+CD45RO+ subpopulations of cells all individually predicted progression to AIDS. In combination with CD4, only the CD8+CD38+ subpopulation enhanced the predictive power of the CD4 percentage alone. The CD8+ percentage correlated negatively with the CD4 percentage and the CD8+CD45RO+ subpopulation did not predict disease progression. The proportion of CD8+CD38+ cells identified which patients with a moderate CD4 level were more likely to progress to AIDS, and conversely, which patients with a low CD4 count were likely to remain clinically stable. The results were consistent irrespective of whether time was measured from the date of seroconversion, or from the date of the test. This study is the first to measure these markers in HIV-infected injecting drug users, and in long-term survivors. The results demonstrate the considerable added value of the CD8+CD38+ cell percentage over the CD4 count alone, in predicting HIV clinical progression.

Viral subtype and heterosexual acquisition of HIV infections diagnosed in Scotland

OBJECTIVE

As at December 1998, 87% of the estimated 33 million people living with HIV throughout the world resided in Africa and South East Asia. In Scotland (and the United Kingdom), a major public health concern has been that non-B subtypes of HIV which predominate in the regions above might enter the country and spread heterosexually among the indigenous population. The authors conducted an investigation to determine if, and to what extent, such transmission had occurred.

METHODS

Stored blood samples from people who were diagnosed as HIV positive in central Scotland during 1995-7 and who were reported to have acquired their infection heterosexually, were identified. Sequence data were sought from each sample and, where obtained, viral subtype was assigned. For each case, viral subtype was linked to corresponding epidemiological details on heterosexual risk.

RESULTS

Viral sequence was obtained from specimens for 53 of 59 cases. For 43 of the 53 cases, information on region of sexual contact was known. All 19 cases who had a sexual risk in Africa or Asia had a non-B subtype (A, C, or E) while 20 of 24 cases who did not report sexual contact in these regions had a B subtype (p < 0.0001). Of the remaining 10 cases, nine had a subtype B and one a subtype C virus.

CONCLUSION

There is no evidence that non-B viral strains from developing countries have yet disseminated appreciably among indigenous heterosexual men and women within Scotland. Continuing to collect both demographic and molecular data from indigenous heterosexuals who are newly diagnosed with HIV would improve the chances of detecting rapidly any appreciable dissemination of non-B subtypes among this population if it were to occur. Such information would be helpful in informing HIV prevention strategies.

HIV-1 strains specific for Dutch injecting drug users in heterosexually infected individuals in The Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

To study the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 subtype B amongst heterosexually infected individuals in The Netherlands.

DESIGN

The study population comprised 54 individuals infected by subtype B viruses through heterosexual contacts. Serum samples were collected between 1988 and 1996.

METHODS

Sequences of the gp120 V3 region were obtained from serum samples and analysed by using the signature pattern and phylogenetic methods.

RESULTS

In 22 (41%) out of 54 subtype B sequences from heterosexually infected individuals, the synonymous nucleotide substitution in the second glycine codon at the tip of the V3 loop (the GGC pattern), previously identified as specific for Dutch injecting drug users (IDU), was found. The other previously described IDU sequence patterns were observed significantly more often among GGC- than among non-GGC-containing sequences. In addition, we identified another amino-acid change specific for the GGC sequences. In the phylogenetic and principal coordinate analyses, the GGC sequences from heterosexually infected individuals clustered separately from the non-GGC sequences and together with the IDU consensus sequence. Both the nonsynonymous and particularly the synonymous distances amongst the GGC sequences were significantly lower than amongst the non-GGC sequences.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data provide evidence for a common origin of the viruses in Dutch IDU and the GGC viruses in heterosexuals. We suggest that a considerable proportion of the viruses in heterosexually infected individuals in The Netherlands may have originated from Dutch IDU.

Molecular epidemiological analysis of HIV in sexual networks in Uganda

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the suitability of HIV sequence analysis, based on the p17 region of the gag gene, to characterize the sexual networks in and around a trading town in south-west Uganda.

METHODS

Blood samples were obtained from 54 HIV-seropositive members of three distinct sexual networks and phylogenetic analysis carried out on proviral DNA sequences obtained from the p17 region of gag from 53 individuals.

RESULTS

Despite documented evidence of very little sexual mixing between residents of the trading town, fishing village and surrounding rural area, there was no evidence of clustering of sequences associated with place of residence. More strikingly, known sexual partners failed to show significantly related sequences, and the two pairs of sequences that did show significant similarity came from individuals who had no known social or sexual contact.

CONCLUSIONS

Sequence analyses such as those described here have proved effective in confirming or identifying epidemiological links not only following single transmission events but also within risk groups. However, the results from Uganda contrast markedly with those from Europe and the United States. The length of time that the community has been infected, the number of occasions when the virus has been introduced and the high degree of partner change may contribute to the lack of supportive evidence for sociological studies of sexual networks in Uganda.