Predictive models for cellular signaling networks

A dynamical systems model of progesterone receptor interactions with inflammation in human parturition

BACKGROUND

Progesterone promotes uterine relaxation and is essential for the maintenance of pregnancy. Withdrawal of progesterone activity and increased inflammation within the uterine tissues are key triggers for parturition. Progesterone actions in myometrial cells are mediated by two progesterone receptor (PR) isoforms, PR-A and PR-B, that function as ligand-activated transcription factors. PR-B mediates relaxatory actions of progesterone, in part, by decreasing myometrial cell responsiveness to pro-inflammatory stimuli. These same pro-inflammatory stimuli promote the expression of PR-A which inhibits the anti-inflammatory activity of PR-B. Competitive interaction between the progesterone receptors then augments myometrial responsiveness to pro-inflammatory stimuli. The interaction between PR-B transcriptional activity and inflammation in the pregnancy myometrium is examined using a dynamical systems model in which quiescence and labor are represented as phase-space equilibrium points. Our model shows that PR-B transcriptional activity and the inflammatory load determine the stability of the quiescent and laboring phenotypes. The model is tested using published transcriptome datasets describing the mRNA abundances in the myometrium before and after the onset of labor at term. Surrogate transcripts were selected to reflect PR-B transcriptional activity and inflammation status.

RESULTS

The model coupling PR-B activity and inflammation predicts contractile status (i.e., laboring or quiescent) with high precision and recall and outperforms uncoupled single and two-gene classifiers. Linear stability analysis shows that phase space bifurcations exist in our model that may reflect the phenotypic states of the pregnancy uterus. The model describes a possible tipping point for the transition of the quiescent to the contractile laboring phenotype.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model describes the functional interaction between the PR-A:PR-B hypothesis and tissue level inflammation in the pregnancy uterus and is a first step in more sophisticated dynamical systems modeling of human partition. The model explains observed biochemical dynamics and as such will be useful for the development of a range of systems-based models using emerging data to predict preterm birth and identify strategies for its prevention.

Model calibration and uncertainty analysis in signaling networks

For a long time the biggest challenges in modeling cellular signal transduction networks has been the inference of crucial pathway components and the qualitative description of their interactions. As a result of the emergence of powerful high-throughput experiments, it is now possible to measure data of high temporal and spatial resolution and to analyze signaling dynamics quantitatively. In addition, this increase of high-quality data is the basis for a better understanding of model limitations and their influence on the predictive power of models. We review established approaches in signal transduction network modeling with a focus on ordinary differential equation models as well as related developments in model calibration. As central aspects of the calibration process we discuss possibilities of model adaptation based on data-driven parameter optimization and the concomitant objective of reducing model uncertainties.