Understanding drug resistance for monotherapy treatment of HIV infection

Apollo: A comprehensive GPU-powered within-host simulator for viral evolution and infection dynamics across population, tissue, and cell

Modern sequencing instruments bring unprecedented opportunity to study within-host viral evolution in conjunction with viral transmissions between hosts. However, no computational simulators are available to assist the characterization of within-host dynamics. This limits our ability to interpret epidemiological predictions incorporating within-host evolution and to validate computational inference tools. To fill this need we developed Apollo, a GPU-accelerated, out-of-core tool for within-host simulation of viral evolution and infection dynamics across population, tissue, and cellular levels. Apollo is scalable to hundreds of millions of viral genomes and can handle complex demographic and population genetic models. Apollo can replicate real within-host viral evolution; accurately recapturing observed viral sequences from an HIV cohort derived from initial population-genetic configurations. For practical applications, using Apollo-simulated viral genomes and transmission networks, we validated and uncovered the limitations of a widely used viral transmission inference tool.

Influenza A virus resistance to 4'-fluorouridine coincides with viral attenuation in vitro and in vivo

Pre-existing or rapidly emerging resistance of influenza viruses to approved antivirals makes the development of novel therapeutics to mitigate seasonal influenza and improve preparedness against future influenza pandemics an urgent priority. We have recently identified the chain-terminating broad-spectrum nucleoside analog clinical candidate 4'-fluorouridine (4'-FlU) and demonstrated oral efficacy against seasonal, pandemic, and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in the mouse and ferret model. Here, we have resistance-profiled 4'-FlU against a pandemic A/CA/07/2009 (H1N1) (CA09). In vitro viral adaptation yielded six independently generated escape lineages with distinct mutations that mediated moderate resistance to 4'-FlU in the genetically controlled background of recombinant CA09 (recCA09). Mutations adhered to three distinct structural clusters that are all predicted to affect the geometry of the active site of the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) complex for phosphodiester bond formation. Escape could be achieved through an individual causal mutation, a combination of mutations acting additively, or mutations functioning synergistically. Fitness of all resistant variants was impaired in cell culture, and all were attenuated in the mouse model. Oral 4'-FlU administered at lowest-efficacious (2 mg/kg) or elevated (10 mg/kg) dose overcame moderate resistance when mice were inoculated with 10 LD50 units of parental or resistant recCA09, demonstrated by significantly reduced virus load and complete survival. In the ferret model, invasion of the lower respiratory tract by variants representing four adaptation lineages was impaired. Resistant variants were either transmission-incompetent, or spread to untreated sentinels was fully blocked by therapeutic treatment of source animals with 4'-FlU.

Influenza A virus resistance to 4'-fluorouridine coincides with viral attenuation in vitro and in vivo

Pre-existing or rapidly emerging resistance of influenza viruses to approved antivirals makes the development of novel therapeutics to mitigate seasonal influenza and improve preparedness against future influenza pandemics an urgent priority. We have recently identified the chain-terminating broad-spectrum nucleoside analog clinical candidate 4'-fluorouridine (4'-FlU) and demonstrated oral efficacy against seasonal, pandemic, and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in the mouse and ferret model. Here, we have resistance-profiled 4'-FlU against a pandemic A/CA/07/2009 (H1N1) (CA09). In vitro viral adaptation yielded six independently generated escape lineages with distinct mutations that mediated moderate resistance to 4'-FlU in the genetically controlled background of recombinant CA09 (recCA09). Mutations adhered to three distinct structural clusters that are all predicted to affect the geometry of the active site of the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) complex for phosphodiester bond formation. Escape could be achieved through an individual causal mutation, a combination of mutations acting additively, or mutations functioning synergistically. Fitness of all resistant variants was impaired in cell culture, and all were attenuated in the mouse model. Oral 4'-FlU administered at lowest-efficacious (2 mg/kg) or elevated (10 mg/kg) dose overcame moderate resistance when mice were inoculated with 10 LD 50 units of parental or resistant recCA09, demonstrated by significantly reduced virus load and complete survival. In the ferret model, invasion of the lower respiratory tract by variants representing four adaptation lineages was impaired. Resistant variants were either transmission-incompetent, or spread to untreated sentinels was fully blocked by therapeutic treatment of source animals with 4'-FlU.

Author Summary

Reduced sensitivity to FDA-approved influenza drugs is a major obstacle to effective antiviral therapy. We have previously demonstrated oral efficacy of a novel clinical candidate drug, 4'-FlU, against seasonal, pandemic, and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. In this study, we have determined possible routes of influenza virus escape from 4'-FlU and addressed whether resistance imposes a viral fitness penalty, affecting pathogenicity or ability to transmit. We identified three distinct clusters of mutations that lead to moderately reduced viral sensitivity to the drug. Testing of resistant variants against two chemically unrelated nucleoside analog inhibitors of influenza virus, conditionally approved favipiravir and the broad-spectrum SARS-CoV-2 drug molnupiravir, revealed cross-resistance of one cluster with favipiravir, whereas no viral escape from molnupiravir was noted. We found that the resistant variants are severely attenuated in mice, impaired in their ability to invade the lower respiratory tract and cause viral pneumonia in ferrets, and transmission-defective or compromised. We could fully mitigate lethal infection of mice with the resistant variants with standard or 5-fold elevated oral dose of 4'-FlU. These results demonstrate that partial viral escape from 4'-FlU is feasible in principle, but escape mutation clusters are unlikely to reach clinical significance or persist in circulating influenza virus strains.

Advances in HIV therapeutics and cure strategies: findings obtained through non-human primate studies

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the main contributor of the ongoing AIDS epidemic, remains one of the most challenging and complex viruses to target and eradicate due to frequent genome mutation and immune evasion. Despite the development of potent antiretroviral therapies, HIV remains an incurable infection as the virus persists in latent reservoirs throughout the body. To innovate a safe and effective cure strategy for HIV in humans, animal models are needed to better understand viral proliferation, disease progression, and therapeutic response. Nonhuman primates infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) provide an ideal model to study HIV infection and pathogenesis as they are closely related to humans genetically and express phenotypically similar immune systems. Examining the clinical outcomes of novel treatment strategies within nonhuman primates facilitates our understanding of HIV latency and advances the development of a true cure to HIV.

Infectious RNA: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Biology, Therapeutic Intervention, and the Quest for a Vaccine

Different mechanisms mediate the toxicity of RNA. Genomic retroviral mRNA hijacks infected host cell factors to enable virus replication. The viral genomic RNA of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) encompasses nine genes encoding in less than 10 kb all proteins needed for replication in susceptible host cells. To do so, the genomic RNA undergoes complex alternative splicing to facilitate the synthesis of the structural, accessory, and regulatory proteins. However, HIV strongly relies on the host cell machinery recruiting cellular factors to complete its replication cycle. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) targets different steps in the cycle, preventing disease progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The comprehension of the host immune system interaction with the virus has fostered the development of a variety of vaccine platforms. Despite encouraging provisional results in vaccine trials, no effective vaccine has been developed, yet. However, novel promising vaccine platforms are currently under investigation.

Stochastic investigation of HIV infection and the emergence of drug resistance

Drug-resistant HIV-1 has caused a growing concern in clinic and public health. Although combination antiretroviral therapy can contribute massively to the suppression of viral loads in patients with HIV-1, it cannot lead to viral eradication. Continuing viral replication during sub-optimal therapy (due to poor adherence or other reasons) may lead to the accumulation of drug resistance mutations, resulting in an increased risk of disease progression. Many studies also suggest that events occurring during the early stage of HIV-1 infection (i.e., the first few hours to days following HIV exposure) may determine whether the infection can be successfully established. However, the numbers of infected cells and viruses during the early stage are extremely low and stochasticity may play a critical role in dictating the fate of infection. In this paper, we use stochastic models to investigate viral infection and the emergence of drug resistance of HIV-1. The stochastic model is formulated by a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), which is derived based on an ordinary differential equation model proposed by Kitayimbwa et al. that includes both forward and backward mutations. An analytic estimate of the probability of the clearance of HIV infection of the CTMC model near the infection-free equilibrium is obtained by a multitype branching process approximation. The analytical predictions are validated by numerical simulations. Unlike the deterministic dynamics where the basic reproduction number R₀ serves as a sharp threshold parameter (i.e., the disease dies out if R₀<1 and persists if R₀>1), the stochastic models indicate that there is always a positive probability for HIV infection to be eradicated in patients. In the presence of antiretroviral therapy, our results show that the chance of clearance of the infection tends to increase although drug resistance is likely to emerge.

Modeling antiretroviral drug responses for HIV-1 infected patients using differential equation models

We review mathematical modeling and related statistical issues of HIV dynamics primarily in response to antiretroviral drug therapy in this article. We start from a basic model of virus infection and then review a number of more advanced models with consideration of pharmacokinetic factors, adherence and drug resistance. Specifically, we illustrate how mathematical models can be developed and parameterized to understand the effects of long-term treatment and different treatment strategies on disease progression. In addition, we discuss a variety of parameter estimation methods for differential equation models that are applicable to either within- or between-host viral dynamics.

DYNAMICAL MODEL OF IN-HOST HIV INFECTION: WITH DRUG THERAPY AND MULTI VIRAL STRAINS

In this paper, a mathematical model for the effect of drug therapy on the in-host dynamics of HIV is considered and analyzed. As the process of reverse transcription is highly error prone, it causes mutation of virus which results in the emergence of drug resistant virus. This is also accounted in the model and corresponding model with both drug resistant and drug sensitive viral strains is studied. We found that, if reproductive ratios for both the strains are less than one, the virus population goes to extinction. If the reproductive ratio of either strain is greater than one and the reproductive ratio of drug resistant virus is smaller than that of drug sensitive virus then both the virus strains persist and infection is not cleared. However if reproductive ratio of drug resistant virus is greater than that of drug sensitive virus then the drug resistant virus out-competes the drug sensitive virus and only drug resistant virus survives. Hence the ratio of two reproduction ratios works as invading capacity threshold value for drug resistant strain. We also noted that by increasing the effective efficacy of the drug, virus may be cleared. Numerical simulations are performed to support and elaborate the analytical findings.

Threshold virus dynamics with impulsive antiretroviral drug effects

The purposes of this paper are twofold: to develop a rigorous approach to analyze the threshold behaviors of nonlinear virus dynamics models with impulsive drug effects and to examine the feasibility of virus clearance following the Manuals of National AIDS Free Antiviral Treatment in China. An impulsive system of differential equations is developed to describe the within-host virus dynamics of both wild-type and drug-resistant strains when a combination of antiretroviral drugs is used to induce instantaneous drug effects at a sequence of dosing times equally spaced while drug concentrations decay exponentially after the dosing time. Threshold parameters are derived using the basic reproduction number of periodic epidemic models, and are used to depict virus clearance/persistence scenarios using the theory of asymptotic periodic systems and the persistence theory of discrete dynamical systems. Numerical simulations using model systems parametrized in terms of the antiretroviral therapy recommended in the aforementioned Manuals illustrate the theoretical threshold virus dynamics, and examine conditions under which the impulsive antiretroviral therapy leads to treatment success. In particular, our results show that only the drug-resistant strain can dominate (the first-line treatment program guided by the Manuals) or both strains may be rapidly eliminated (the second-line treatment program), thus the work indicates the importance of implementing the second-line treatment program as soon as possible.

Modeling HIV persistence, the latent reservoir, and viral blips

HIV-1 eradication from infected individuals has not been achieved with the prolonged use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The cellular reservoir for HIV-1 in resting memory CD4(+) T cells remains a major obstacle to viral elimination. The reservoir does not decay significantly over long periods of time but is able to release replication-competent HIV-1 upon cell activation. Residual ongoing viral replication may likely occur in many patients because low levels of virus can be detected in plasma by sensitive assays and transient episodes of viremia, or HIV-1 blips, are often observed in patients even with successful viral suppression for many years. Here we review our current knowledge of the factors contributing to viral persistence, the latent reservoir, and blips, and mathematical models developed to explore them and their relationships. We show how mathematical modeling has helped improve our understanding of HIV-1 dynamics in patients on HAART and of the quantitative events underlying HIV-1 latency, reservoir stability, low-level viremic persistence, and emergence of intermittent viral blips. We also discuss treatment implications related to these studies.

The effects of distributed life cycles on the dynamics of viral infections

We explore the role of cellular life cycles for viruses and host cells in an infection process. For this purpose, we derive a generalized version of the basic model of virus dynamics (Nowak, M.A., Bangham, C.R.M., 1996. Population dynamics of immune responses to persistent viruses. Science 272, 74-79) from a mesoscopic description. In its final form the model can be written as a set of Volterra integrodifferential equations. We consider the role of distributed lifespans and a intracellular (eclipse) phase. These processes are implemented by means of probability distribution functions. The basic reproductive ratio R(0) of the infection is properly defined in terms of such distributions by using an analysis of the equilibrium states and their stability. It is concluded that the introduction of distributed delays can strongly modify both the value of R(0) and the predictions for the virus loads, so the effects on the infection dynamics are of major importance. We also show how the model presented here can be applied to some simple situations where direct comparison with experiments is possible. Specifically, phage-bacteria interactions are analyzed. The dynamics of the eclipse phase for phages is characterized analytically, which allows us to compare the performance of three different fittings proposed before for the one-step growth curve.

Emergence of HIV-1 Drug Resistance During Antiretroviral Treatment

Treating HIV-infected patients with a combination of several antiretroviral drugs usually contributes to a substantial decline in viral load and an increase in CD4(+) T cells. However, continuing viral replication in the presence of drug therapy can lead to the emergence of drug-resistant virus variants, which subsequently results in incomplete viral suppression and a greater risk of disease progression. In this paper, we use a simple mathematical model to study the mechanism of the emergence of drug resistance during therapy. The model includes two viral strains: wild-type and drug-resistant. The wild-type strain can mutate and become drug-resistant during the process of reverse transcription. The reproductive ratio [Symbol: see text](0) for each strain is obtained and stability results of the steady states are given. We show that drug-resistant virus is more likely to arise when, in the presence of antiretroviral treatment, the reproductive ratios of both strains are close. The wild-type virus can be suppressed even when the reproductive ratio of this strain is greater than 1. A pharmacokinetic model including blood and cell compartments is employed to estimate the drug efficacies of both the wild-type and the drug-resistant strains. We investigate how time-varying drug efficacy (due to the drug dosing schedule and suboptimal adherence) affects the antiviral response, particularly the emergence of drug resistance. Simulation results suggest that perfect adherence to regimen protocol will well suppress the viral load of the wild-type strain while drug-resistant variants develop slowly. However, intermediate levels of adherence may result in the dominance of the drug-resistant virus several months after the initiation of therapy. When more doses of drugs are missed, the failure of suppression of the wild-type virus will be observed, accompanied by a relatively slow increase in the drug-resistant viral load.

Modeling within-host HIV-1 dynamics and the evolution of drug resistance: trade-offs between viral enzyme function and drug susceptibility

There are many biological steps between viral infection of CD4(+) T cells and the production of HIV-1 virions. Here we incorporate an eclipse phase, representing the stage in which infected T cells have not started to produce new virus, into a simple HIV-1 model. Model calculations suggest that the quicker infected T cells progress from the eclipse stage to the productively infected stage, the more likely that a viral strain will persist. Long-term treatment effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs is often hindered by the frequent emergence of drug resistant virus during therapy. We link drug resistance to both the rate of progression of the eclipse phase and the rate of viral production of the resistant strain, and explore how the resistant strain could evolve to maximize its within-host viral fitness. We obtained the optimal progression rate and the optimal viral production rate, which maximize the fitness of a drug resistant strain in the presence of drugs. We show that the window of opportunity for invasion of drug resistant strains is widened for a higher level of drug efficacy provided that the treatment is not potent enough to eradicate both the sensitive and resistant virus.

Gaining insights into human viral diseases through mathematics

Mathematical models have been recognized as powerful tools for providing new insights into the understanding of viral dynamics of human diseases at both the population and cellular levels. This article briefly reviews the role of mathematical models and␣their historical precedents for creating new knowledge of the mechanisms of disease pathogenesis, transmission, and control of some human viral infections. Future research in the modelling of infectious diseases will need to rely upon incorporation of the fundamental principles that govern viral dynamics in vivo as well as in the population.

Comparison of three kinetic models of HIV-1 infection: implications for optimization of treatment

Clinical markers in the peripheral blood guide the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). Likewise, many of the theoretical models developed to simulate infection only incorporate variables in the blood. To test the suitability of blood-only models, three distinct models of HIV infection kinetics are compared: "full model" including latently and actively infected cells and virus in the peripheral blood and lymphoid tissue (LT); "reduced model", including peripheral blood and LT without latent cells; and "blood model" including only actively infected cells and virus in the peripheral blood. Using the same parameter values for all three, qualitative differences are demonstrated between the blood model and its more inclusive counterparts. Additionally, optimization studies show that the reduced and blood models generate progressively lower optimal treatment levels relative to the full model when constant-level treatment is considered. These findings indicate that including the lymphoid tissue and latently infected cells into kinetic models may lead to differing conclusions with regard to optimal treatment and could be useful in guiding therapy even when plasma viral levels are below detectable limits.

Use of a stochastic model to develop understanding of the impact of different patterns of antiretroviral drug use on resistance development

OBJECTIVE

To use a stochastic model to gain insights into the consequence for resistance development of different drug use patterns.

METHODS

We consider use of three drugs (A, B and C) where for each drug one and only one viral mutation is associated with ability to replicate (effective reproductive ratio, R > 1) in the presence of that drug as monotherapy. For drug A mutation is a, etc. We define eight populations of short-lived infected cells that live 1 day: Vo with no mutations a, b, c; Va with mutation a only, Vab with mutations a and b, etc. A random number generator was used to determine whether mutations occur in any one round of replication and to sample from a Poisson distribution to determine for each cell the number of cells of the same population created in the next generation, using the R operative at that time. Values of R depended on drug exposure, cost of resistance and availability of target cells.

RESULTS

Treatment strategies and the resulting percentage (over 100 runs) developing full "resistance" in 1500 days (Vabc not equal 0) were: (i) ABC 1500 days 0%; (ii) A 300 days, AB 300 days, ABC 900 days 100%; (iii) AB 300 days, ABC 1200 days 33%; (iv) ABC 2/3 1500 days 15%; (v) ABC 1/2 1500 days 100%; (vi) ABC 50 days, no drugs 50 days, for 1500 days 1%, where ABC 2/3 means on-drug for 2 days in every 3, ABC 1/2 represents on-drug for 1 day in every 2, and represents suboptimal adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

This model helps to develop understanding of key principles concerning development of resistance under different patterns of treatment use.

Numerical modelling of the perturbation of HIV-1 during combination anti-retroviral therapy

A competitive, chaos-free, implicit, finite-difference method is developed and used for a novel deterministic model for the perturbation of HIV by combination antiretroviral therapy. The compartmental model monitors the interaction between HIV and CD4(+) T cells, its principal target and site of replication in vivo, in the presence of reverse transcription inhibitors and protease inhibitors. The model exhibits two steady states, an uninfected (trivial) steady state (with no virus present) and an endemically infected state (with virus and infected T cells present). Stability and bifurcation analyses together with numerical simulations of the resulting dynamical system are reported.

A delay-differential equation model of HIV infection of CD4(+) T-cells

A.S. Perelson, D.E. Kirschner and R. De Boer (Math. Biosci. 114 (1993) 81) proposed an ODE model of cell-free viral spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a well-mixed compartment such as the bloodstream. Their model consists of four components: uninfected healthy CD4(+) T-cells, latently infected CD4(+) T-cells, actively infected CD4(+) T-cells, and free virus. This model has been important in the field of mathematical modeling of HIV infection and many other models have been proposed which take the model of Perelson, Kirschner and De Boer as their inspiration, so to speak (see a recent survey paper by A.S. Perelson and P.W. Nelson (SIAM Rev. 41 (1999) 3-44)). We first simplify their model into one consisting of only three components: the healthy CD4(+) T-cells, infected CD4(+) T-cells, and free virus and discuss the existence and stability of the infected steady state. Then, we introduce a discrete time delay to the model to describe the time between infection of a CD4(+) T-cell and the emission of viral particles on a cellular level (see A.V.M. Herz, S. Bonhoeffer, R.M. Anderson, R.M. May, M.A. Nowak [Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 93 (1996) 7247]). We study the effect of the time delay on the stability of the endemically infected equilibrium, criteria are given to ensure that the infected equilibrium is asymptotically stable for all delay. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

A model of HIV-1 pathogenesis that includes an intracellular delay

Mathematical modeling combined with experimental measurements have yielded important insights into HIV-1 pathogenesis. For example, data from experiments in which HIV-infected patients are given potent antiretroviral drugs that perturb the infection process have been used to estimate kinetic parameters underlying HIV infection. Many of the models used to analyze data have assumed drug treatments to be completely efficacious and that upon infection a cell instantly begins producing virus. We consider a model that allows for less then perfect drug effects and which includes a delay in the initiation of virus production. We present detailed analysis of this delay differential equation model and compare the results to a model without delay. Our analysis shows that when drug efficacy is less than 100%, as may be the case in vivo, the predicted rate of decline in plasma virus concentration depends on three factors: the death rate of virus producing cells, the efficacy of therapy, and the length of the delay. Thus, previous estimates of infected cell loss rates can be improved upon by considering more realistic models of viral infection.

Dynamics of co-infection with M. Tuberculosis and HIV-1

Since 1985, there has been a renewed epidemic of tuberculosis (TB) that was previously thought to be in check. There is evidence to believe the main factor for this resurgence has been the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Co-infection with HIV and M. Tuberculosis has profound implications for the course of both diseases. This study represents a first attempt to understand how the introduction of an opportunistic infection, namely Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacteria that causes TB, affects the dynamic interaction of HIV-1 and the immune system. We create a mathematical model using ordinary differential equations to describe the interaction of HIV and TB with the immune system. It is known that infection with TB can decrease the CD4(+) T cell counts-a key marker of AIDS progression; thus, it shortens survival in HIV infected individuals. Another main marker for HIV progression is the viral load. If this load is increased due to the presence of opportunistic infections, the disease progression is much more rapid. We also explore the effects of drug treatment on the TB infection in the doubly-infected patient.