A study of the variability associated with sampling peanuts for aflatoxin

Distribution of aflatoxin in whole peanut kernels, sampling plans for small samples

It is well known that the distribution of aflatoxin in a lot of whole peanut kernels is extremely heterogeneous. Several different statistical distribution models have been proposed, fitting the experimental data reasonably well as long as the samples are very large, but differing considerably when applied to small samples. Therefore, it is important to know the real distribution between single kernels for the evaluation of the effectiveness of sampling plans for small samples. It is shown by the analysis of 368 samples of 1-10,000 kernels from the same lot of peanuts that the negative binomial distribution represents a good statistical model. The variance can be estimated from the mean concentration of the analysed samples, as confirmed by the comparison of data from several independent investigations. Decisions based on small samples are especially unfavourable to the consumer, as even a lot with a high mean concentration will tend to give negative results. A reasonably small risk of a false decision, both to the consumer and to the producer, can be reached only if very large samples are analysed.

Incidence of aflatoxin in California almonds

In a survey of California almonds, aflatoxin was found in 14% of 74 samples of unsorted, in-shell almonds as received by the processor in 1972, but it occurred at very low levels (below 20 parts per billion (ppb)) in 90% of the contaminated samples. The overall proportion of individual nuts contaminated was especially low and is estimated with 95% probability to have been in the range of 1 nut/55,300 nuts to 1 nut/14,700 nuts. Aflatoxin contamination is not restriced to any particular section of the almond-growing region of California. Commercial sorting procedures are effective in removing most aflatoxin-contaminated nutmeats, since none of 26 samples of processed, whole nutmeats contained aflatoxin. In contrast, 13 of 27 samples of diced almonds were contaminated, but nine of these 13 samples contained less than 20 ppb. Only one of 25 samples of sliced nutmeats contained aflatoxin (4 ppb). Thus, aflatoxin incidence in almonds varies greatly with the category of finished product. The apparent high incidence in diced nutmeats is probably due mostly to the more uniform distribution of aflatoxin occurring in this product (because of its small particle size) than that occurring in the other products. Sample size requirements for monitoring aflatoxin in almonds are discussed.