Effects of river nutrient load reduction on the eutrophication of the North Sea, simulated with the ecosystem model ERSEM

The impact of extreme precipitation on physical and biogeochemical processes regarding with nutrient dynamics in a semi-closed bay

An extreme precipitation event in August 2012 changed the ecosystem of Jiaozhou Bay (JZB), China. Biochemical variables in the sea, river mouths, and rainwater were monitored simultaneously during the event. The impact of the following excessive riverine input and wet atmospheric deposition on nutrient dynamics were studied before. However, regulatory processes of nutrient dynamics were not quantified and analyzed. Therefore, a coupled physical-biological model (FVCOM-ERSEM) was used to study the physical and biochemical mechanisms of the variation of the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), phosphorus (DIP), and silicon (DISi), as well as chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). The results indicate that physical processes increase nutrients, while biological processes reduce them. The exchange with the Yellow Sea, as an important physical process, exports DIN to the Yellow Sea, but imports DIP and DISi to the JZB. Only 20 % of the excessive DIN due to extreme precipitation event was reduced by water exchange with the Yellow Sea. The rest (80 %) was reduced and changed into organic nitrogen through biological processes. This paper also examines the variation of the pelagic and benthic cycles of biochemical processes. In these cycles, phytoplankton take up and use nutrients in the bay, while zooplankton excretion in the pelagic cycle and benthic releases resupply them. Precipitation enriched the surface nutrients, which boosted primary production and organic matter transport to the bottom water.

Modelling food-web mediated effects of hydrological variability and environmental flows

Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points.

What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?

Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status. Marine hydrodynamic/ecosystem models provide continuous fields of a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack of in situ data, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers. Here we demonstrate a methodology that uses a combination of model outputs and in situ data to assess the risk of eutrophication in the coastal domain of the North Sea. The risk of eutrophication is computed for the past and present time as well as for different future scenarios. This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).

Nitrate-nitrogen leaching and modeling in intensive agriculture farmland in China

Protecting water resources from nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃-N) contamination is an important public health concern and a major national environmental issue in China. Loss of NO₃-N in soils due to leaching is not only one of the most important problems in agriculture farming, but is also the main factor causing nitrogen pollution in aquatic environments. Three typical intensive agriculture farmlands in Jiangyin City in China are selected as a case study for NO₃-N leaching and modeling in the soil profile. In this study, the transport and fate of NO₃-N within the soil profile and nitrate leaching to drains were analyzed by comparing field data with the simulation results of the LEACHM model. Comparisons between measured and simulated data indicated that the NO₃-N concentrations in the soil and nitrate leaching to drains are controlled by the fertilizer practice, the initial conditions and the rainfall depth and distribution. Moreover, the study reveals that the LEACHM model gives a fair description of the NO₃-N dynamics in the soil and subsurface drainage at the field scale. It can also be concluded that the model after calibration is a useful tool to optimize as a function of the combination “climate-crop-soil-bottom boundary condition” the nitrogen application strategy resulting for the environment in an acceptable level of nitrate leaching. The findings in this paper help to demonstrate the distribution and migration of nitrogen in intensive agriculture farmlands, as well as to explore the mechanism of groundwater contamination resulting from agricultural activities.

A North Sea and Baltic Sea model ensemble eutrophication assessment

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.

Changes in the seasonal cycles of inorganic nutrients in the coastal zone of the southeastern North Sea from 1960 to 1997: effects of eutrophication and sensitivity to meteoclimatic factors

A long-term analysis of seasonal cycles of inorganic nutrients by means of a seasonal index is presented for the German Bight and the southern Wadden Sea (SE North Sea). Multivariate analysis for the German Bight data series revealed dependence of ammonium and phosphate index time series on dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations and riverine nutrient loads. Both indices are assumed to reflect seasonal dynamics of remineralisation processes associated with increased supply of organic matter. Temporal analysis revealed breaks in nutrient dynamics in 1970/1972 and 1979/1980. After 1970/1972, an unprecedented increase in the summer concentrations of mineralisation endproducts with correspondingly low index values were observed, which further declined after 1979/1980. Further breaks for Wadden Sea data series were identified in 1985 and 1988/1989. The indicative value of the temporal breaks with respect to eutrophication is discussed against the background of changes in meteoclimatic factors and local environmental conditions. Collated information on eutrophication effects was consistent with the observed breaks. It is suggested that the break in 1970/1972 in the German Bight was the first sign of ecosystem response to eutrophication in the SE North Sea.