The Sernbo score as a predictor of 1-year mortality after hip fracture: a registry study on 55,716 patients

Hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte and platelet (HALP) score for predicting early and late mortality in elderly patients with proximal femur fractures

BACKGROUND

Predicting mortality and morbidity poses a significant challenge to physicians, leading to the development of various scoring systems. Among these, the hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte and platelet (HALP) score evaluates a patient's nutritional and immune status. The primary aim of this study was to determine the predictive effect of the HALP score on 30-day and 1-year mortality in elderly patients with proximal femoral fractures (PFFs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patient demographic, clinical, laboratory, and prognostic data were obtained. The patients were categorized into two groups: survival and nonsurvival at mortality endpoints. The HALP score was calculated and compared among the groups and with other mortality biomarkers such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR). The ability of the HALP score to predict mortality was compared between the groups. The mortality risk was also calculated at the optimal threshold.

RESULTS

The HALP score had a statistically significant predictive effect on mortality endpoints and was lower in the non-surviving group. The ability of the HALP score to predict 1-year mortality at the optimal cut-off value (17.975) was superb, with a sensitivity of 0.66 and specificity of 0.86 (AUC: 0.826, 95% CI: 0.784-0.868). In addition, the power of the HALP score to differentiate survivors and non-survivors was more significant than that of other indices (p < 0.001). Patients with a HALP score ≤ 17.975 had a 1-year mortality risk 11.794 times that of patients with a HALP score ≥ 17.975 (Odds ratio: 11.794, 95% CI [7.194-19.338], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The results indicate that the HALP score demonstrates efficacy and utility in predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality risk among elderly patients with PFFs.

Association between institutionalization by 4 months post-discharge walking capacity and lean body mass in elderly hip fracture patients: Evidence from a Swedish Registry Based Study

Background and purpose

Losing independence is a main concern for hip fracture patients, and particularly not being able to return home. Given the large impact on quality of life by loss of independence and the high risk for institutionalization after hip fracture, it is of importance to identify modifiable risk factors for such negative outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the association between two such factors, that is, lean body mass and 4 months post-discharge walking capacity, and the risk of institutionalization in previously independent living older people who suffer a hip fracture.

Patients and methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Swedish national-based population registers. Patients ⩾60 years with a hip fracture during 2008-2017 were included from the Swedish National Registry for Hip Fractures. Risk of institutionalization over the 1-year period following a hip fracture was analyzed using logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential predictors and characteristics.

Results

In total, 11,265 patients were included. Over the first year, 8% (95% CI: 8-9) of the patients with a hip fracture had lost independence, increasing to 15% (95% CI: 14-16) after 5 years. Poor recovery of post-discharge walking ability was associated with a higher odds ratio of losing independence compared with good recovery (OR 12.0; 95% CI: 7.8-18.4; p < 0.001). Having higher estimated lean body mass than 45 kg at index was associated with lower odds of losing independence.

Conclusion

Maintaining lean body mass and mobility after a hip fracture is likely important from an individual as well as public health perspective.

Patient and proxy perspectives in decision-making for geriatric hip fracture management in the Netherlands: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to explore the perspectives with the decision-making process between surgery and palliative, non-operative management of geriatric hip fracture patients and their proxies.

DESIGN

A qualitative interview study was performed. Patients and proxies were asked to participate in semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis according to Braun and Clarke's six-step guide.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Hip fracture patients in the Netherlands were eligible for inclusion. For hip fracture patients with a pre-existing diagnosis of dementia and for patients who opted for palliative, non-operative management, proxies were included.

RESULTS

A total of 16 interviews were conducted, consisting of 4 patient interviews and 12 proxy interviews. Five themes were identified during thematic analysis: (1) underlying patient values, (2) the provision of information, (3) reasons to consider either palliative, non-operative management or surgery, (4) involvement in decision and (5) realisation of expectations. Information provided by the physician varied in terms of desired level of detail but involved discussing the advantages and disadvantages of surgery and palliative, non-operative management. Patients and proxies underscored the importance of achieving optimal quality of life, and the disparity between expected and actual treatment outcomes was unpleasant and negatively influenced the overall experience.

CONCLUSIONS

In-depth analysis provided a unique insight into the patient and proxy perspectives in shared decision-making for geriatric hip fracture management in the acute setting. Overall, there were differences between reported experiences and preferences of participants. This heterogeneity stresses the importance of keeping a person-centred approach during shared decision-making. Other key considerations during shared decision-making include physicians informing patients from professional experience and communicating sensitively about both treatment options and prognosis. Physicians should aim to provide realistic, sensitive and timely information to both patients and proxies during the choice between curation and palliation for their hip fracture.

Patients Aged 80 or More With Distal Radius Fractures Have a Lower One-Year Mortality Rate Than Age- and Gender-Matched Controls: A Register-Based Study

Introduction

With a rapidly ageing population, the number of distal radius fractures (DRFs) in the elderly will increase dramatically. The aim of this retrospective register study was to examine the 1- and 5-year mortality in DRF patients aged 80 years or more and correlate the overall survival to factors not related to the fracture itself.

Material and Methods

Patients aged ≥80 diagnosed with DRFs in Lund University Hospital in Sweden in the period 2010-2012 were extracted from the prospective Lund Distal Radius Fracture register. One- and 5-year standardised mortality rates (SMRs) were calculated using the Swedish standard population as a reference. Medical records were searched for non-fracture-related factors including comorbidity, medications, cognitive impairment and type of living. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify prognostic factors for all-cause mortality.

Results

The study cohort included 240 patients, with a mean age of 86. The overall 1-year mortality was 5% (n = 11/240) and the 5-year mortality was 44% (n = 105/240). The 1-year SMR was .44 (CI .18-.69, P < .01) when indirectly adjusted for age and gender and compared to the Swedish standard population. The 5-year SMR was .96 (CI .78-1.14). The patients' ability to live independently in their own home had the highest impact on survival.

Discussion

The 1-year mortality rate among the super-elderly DRF patients was only 44% of that expected. Possibly, a DRF at this age could be a sign of a healthier and more active patient.

Conclusions

The DRF patients aged 80 or more had a substantially lower mortality rate 1 year after fracture compared to the age- and gender-matched standard population. Patients living independently in their own homes had the longest life expectancy. Treatment should not be limited solely because of old age, but individualised according to the patient's ability and activity level.

AtoG: A simple score to predict complications and death after hip fractures, in line with the comprehensive geriatric assessment

INTRODUCTION

Proximal Femur Fractures (PFFs) are a significant public health issue and occur in the context of global frailty and aging. Recent literature identifies new patient-related prognostic factors that focus on socioeconomic environment, patient well-being, or nutrition status. Specific scores have been developed, but in most cases, they fail to be in line with the comprehensive geriatric assessment, or do not assess the newly identified prognostic factors, contain multitude collinearities, or are too complex to be used in the daily practice. Hypothesis A comprehensive score with equal representation of the patient's dimensions does at least as good as the Charlson score (CCI), to predict complications and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a new comprehensive prognostic score, predicting inpatient complications and mortality up to 5-year after PFF.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The patients treated surgically for PFF on a native hip, between 2005 and 2017 were selected from a French national database. The variables were the gender, age, the type of treatment (osteosynthesis or arthroplasty), and the CCI. The outcomes were the medical and surgical complications as inpatient and the mortality (up to 5-year). Variables were grouped into dimensions with similar clinical significance, using a Principal Component Analysis, for instance, bedsores and malnutrition. The dimensions were tested for 90-day mortality and complications, in regressions models. Two scores were derived from the coefficients: SCOREpond (strict ponderation), and SCORE (with loose ponderation: 1 point/risk factors, -1 point/protective factors). Calibration, discrimination (ROC curves with Area Under Curves AUC), and cross-validation were assessed for SCOREpond, SCORE, and CCI.

RESULTS

Analyses were performed on 7756 fractures. The factorial analysis identified seven dimensions: age; brain-related conditions (including dementia): 1738/7756; severe chronic conditions (for instance, organ failures) 914/7756; undernutrition: 764/7756; environment, including social issues or housing difficulties: 659/7756; associated trauma: 814/7756; and gender. The seven dimensions were selected for the prognostic score named AtoG (ABCDEFG, standing for Age, Brain, Comorbidities, unDernutrition, Environment, other Fractures, Gender). The median survival rate was 50.8 months 95% CI [49-53]. Anaemia and urologic complications were the most prevalent medical complications (1674/7756, 21%, and 1109/7756, 14.2%). A total of 149/7756 patients (1.9%) developed a mechanical inpatient complication (fractures or dislocations), with a slightly higher risk for arthroplasties. The AUCs were 0.69, 0.68, and 0.67 for AtoGpond, AtoG, and CCI, respectively, for 90-day mortality, and 0.64, 0.63, and 0.56 for complications. Compared to patients with AtoG=0, Hazard Ratios for 90-day mortality were 2.3 95% CI [1.7-2.9], 4.2 95% CI [3.1-5.4], 6 95% CI [4.5-8.1], 8.3 95% CI [6.5-12.9], and 13.7 95% CI [8-24], from AtoG=1 to AtoG≥5, respectively (p<10-4); the 90-day survival decreased by 5%/point, roughly. The sur-risk of mortality associated with AtoG was up to 5-year: HR=1.51 (95% CI [1.46-1.55], p<10-4). Compared to AtoG=0, from AtoG=1 to AtoG≥5, the pooled Odd Ratios were 1.14 95% CI [1.06-1.2], 1.53 95% CI [1.4-1.7], 2.17 95% CI [1.9-2.4], 2.9 95% CI [2.4-3.4], and 4.9 95% CI [3.3-7.4] for any complication (p<10-4).

CONCLUSION

AtoG is a multidimensional score in line with the concept of comprehensive geriatric assessment. It had good discrimination and performance in predicting 90-day mortality and complications. Performances were as good as CCI for 90-day mortality, and better than it for the complications.

LEVEL OF PROOF

IV; retrospective cohort study.

Can we predict 1-year functional outcomes and mortality following hip fracture in middle-aged and geriatric patients at time of admission?

This study's purpose is to determine if patients treated for hip fracture at highest risk for poor functional outcomes, shorter time to death, and death within 1-year can be predicted at the time of admission. We hypothesized that the Score for Trauma Triage in the Geriatric and Middle-Aged (STTGMA) tool can be used to predict risk of these variables. Between February 2019-July 2020, 544 patients ≥ 55-years-old were treated for hip fracture [AO/OTA 31A/B, 32A/C]. Each patient's demographics, functional status, and injury details were used to calculate their respective risk (STTGMA) score at time of admission. Patients were divided into risk quartiles by STTGMA score. Patients were contacted by phone to complete EuroQol-5 Dimension (EQ5D-3L) questionnaires on functional status. Comparative analyses were conducted on outcomes and EQ5D-3L questionnaire results. 439 patients (80.7%) had at least 1-year follow-up. 82 patients (18.7%) died within 1-year after hospitalization. Mean STTGMA score was 1.67% ± 4.49%. The highest-risk cohort experienced a 42x (p < 0.01) and 2.5x (p = 0.01) increased rate of 1-year mortality compared to the minimal- and low-risk groups respectively. The highest-risk cohort had the shortest time to death (p = 0.015). The highest-risk cohort had the lowest EQ5D index (p < 0.01) and VAS scores (p < 0.01) along with the highest rate of 30 day readmission (p < 0.01) and the longest length of stay (p < 0.01). The STTGMA tool provides important prognostic information for middle-aged and geriatric hip fracture patients that can help modulate care levels. This information is useful when counseling patients, their families, and caregivers on expected outcomes.

Risk prediction models of mortality after hip fracture surgery in older individuals: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to critically assess existing risk prediction models for postoperative mortality in older individuals with hip fractures, with the objective of offering substantive insights for their clinical application.

DESIGN

A comprehensive search was conducted across prominent databases, including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, SinoMed, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang, spanning original articles in both Chinese and English up until 1 December 2023. Two researchers independently extracted pertinent research characteristics, such as predictors, model performance metrics, and modeling methodologies. Additionally, the bias risk and applicability of the incorporated risk prediction models were systematically evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

Within the purview of this investigation, a total of 21 studies were identified, constituting 21 original risk prediction models. The discriminatory capacity of the included risk prediction models, as denoted by the minimum and maximum areas under the subject operating characteristic curve, ranged from 0.710 to 0.964. Noteworthy predictors, recurrent across various models, included age, sex, comorbidities, and nutritional status. However, among the models assessed through the PROBAST framework, only one was deemed to exhibit a low risk of bias. Beyond this assessment, the principal limitations observed in risk prediction models pertain to deficiencies in data analysis, encompassing insufficient sample size and suboptimal handling of missing data.

CONCLUSION

Subsequent research endeavors should adopt more stringent experimental designs and employ advanced statistical methodologies in the construction of risk prediction models. Moreover, large-scale external validation studies are warranted to rigorously assess the generalizability and clinical utility of existing models, thereby enhancing their relevance as valuable clinical references.

Machine learning-based mortality prediction in hip fracture patients using biomarkers

The purpose of this retrospective study was to assess whether mortality following a hip fracture can be predicted by a machine learning model trained on basic blood and lab test data as well as basic demographic data. Additionally, the purpose was to identify the key variables most associated with 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality and investigate their clinical significance. Input data included 3751 hip fracture patient records sourced from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database, which provided records from in-hospital database systems at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. The 1-year mortality rate for all patients studied was 21% and for those aged 80+ was 29%. We assessed 10 different machine learning classification models, finding LightGBM to have the strongest 1-year mortality prediction performance, with accuracy of 81%, AUC of 0.79, sensitivity of 0.34, and specificity of 0.98 on the test set. The strongest-weighted features of the 1-year model included age, glucose, red blood cell distribution width, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, white blood cells, urea nitrogen, prothrombin time, platelet count, calcium levels, and partial thromboplastin time. Most of these were also in the top 10 features of the LightGBM 5- and 10-year prediction models trained. Testing for these high-ranking biomarkers in new hip fracture patients can aid clinicians in assessing the likelihood of poor outcomes for hip fracture patients, and additional research can use these biomarkers to develop a mortality risk score.

Is the Revision Rate for Femoral Neck Fracture Lower for Total Hip Arthroplasty Than for Hemiarthroplasty?: A Comparison of Registry Data for Contemporary Surgical Options

BACKGROUND

When arthroplasty is indicated for a femoral neck fracture (FNF), it is unclear whether total hip arthroplasty (THA) or hemiarthroplasty (HA) is best. This study compares data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry using contemporary surgical options.

METHODS

Patients from 60 to 85 years old who were treated with arthroplasty for FNF, between September 1999 and December 2019, were included if the femoral stems were cemented. Only THAs with femoral heads of ≥36 mm or dual-mobility articulations were included. Patients who had monoblock HA were excluded. Rates of revision for all aseptic failures and dislocation were compared. Competing risks of revision and death were considered using the cumulative incidence function. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for revision or death from a Fine-Gray regression model were used to compare THA and HA. Interactions of procedure with age group and sex were considered. Secondary analysis adjusting for body mass index (BMI) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification was also considered.

RESULTS

There were 4,551 THA and 29,714 HA procedures included. The rate of revision for THA was lower for women from 60 to 69 years old (HR = 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.39 to 0.85]) and from 70 to 74 years old (HR = 0.65 [95% CI, 0.43 to 0.98]) compared with HA. However, women from 80 to 85 years old (HR = 1.56 [95% CI, 1.03 to 2.35]) and men from 75 to 79 years old (HR = 1.61 [95% CI, 1.05 to 2.46]) and 80 to 85 years old (HR = 2.73 [95% CI, 1.89 to 3.95]) had an increased rate of revision when THA was undertaken compared with HA. There was no difference in the rate of revision for dislocation between THA and HA for either sex or age categories.

CONCLUSIONS

When contemporary surgical options for FNF are used, there is a benefit with respect to revision outcomes for THA in women who are <75 years old and a benefit for HA in women who are ≥80 years old and men who are ≥75 years old. There is no difference in dislocation rates.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic Level III . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

A combined fracture and mortality risk index useful for treatment stratification in hip fragility fractures

Objectives

In this study, we aimed to assess the stratification ability of the Fracture and Mortality Risk Evaluation (FAME) index for reoperation, new fragility fracture, and mortality during one-year follow-up.

Patients and methods

Between November 2018 and July 2019, a total of 94 consecutive hip fragility fracture patients from two centers (20 males, 74 females; mean age: 79.3±8.9 years; range, 57 to 100 years) were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were classified into high, intermediate, and low fracture and mortality risk groups according to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) score and Sernbo score, respectively, as well as nine combined categories according to the FAME index. Hospital records were reviewed to identify re-fractures (reoperations, implant failure, new fragility fractures on any site) and mortality at one year following the FAME index classification.

Results

Overall re-fracture and mortality rates were 20.2% and 33%, respectively. High fracture risk category (FRAX-H) was significantly associated with higher re-fracture (odds ratio [OR]: 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1-8.2, p=0.037) and mortality rates compared to others (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.5-9.3, p=0.003). The patients classified within the FRAX-H category (n=35) had different mortality rates according to their Sernbo classification; i.e., patients classified as low mortality risk (Sernbo-L) (n=17) had lower mortality rates compared to others in this group (n=18) (35.3% and 66.7%, respectively), indicating a low statistical significance (OR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1-1.1, p=0.063). Similarly, within patients classified in Sernbo-L category (n=64), those classified as high fracture risk (FRAX-H) (n=17) had significantly higher re-fracture rates compared to others in this group (n=47) (35.3% and 8.5%, respectively), (OR: 5.9; 95% CI: 1.4-24.5), (p=0.017). Multivariate logistic regression analyses adjusting for covariates (age, sex, length of hospital stay and BMI) yielded similar results.

Conclusion

The FAME index appears to be a useful stratification tool for allocating patients in a randomized-controlled trial for augmentation of hip fragility fractures.