The association between the Revised Cardiac Risk Index and short-term mortality after hip fracture surgery

A Retrospective Cohort Study Examining the Validation of the Modified Duke Activity Status Index in the Non-cardiac Surgical Population

PURPOSE

We aimed to ascertain if the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) and its simplified variants predict 30-day mortality and myocardial injury after major non-cardiac surgery in at-risk patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

We included 4,199 patients to validate the DASI and its variants in predicting the same composite outcome in patients with risk factors for coronary artery disease. Additional outcomes included 30-day severe complications, 1-year survival, and the effect of the Area Deprivation Index (ADI) on the DASI score and subsequent outcomes.

FINDINGS

Patients were a median of 66 years old (interquartile range 57.0, 73.0), 47.9% were male, predominantly Caucasian (71.9%), with an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 3 or greater (80.7%) and a median National ADI of 54.0 (interquartile range 33.0 to 74.0). The 30-day composite outcome was predicted by the original DASI (area under the curve [AUC] 0.82 [CI 0.73, 0.91], P < .001); modified 4-question DASI (AUC 0.82 [CI 0.73, 0.91], P < .048). The original DASI also predicted the 1-year composite outcome (hazard ratio 0.88 [CI 0.84, 0.93], P < .001), as did the modified 4-question DASI (hazard ratio 0.78 [CI 0.69, 0.89], P < .001), but not severe complications (P = .400 and P = .332 respectively). The ADI showed an inverse relationship with all versions of the DASI; there was a 0.8-point DASI decrease ([95% confidence interval -0.96 to -0.59], P < .001) for every 10-point increase in the National ADI.

CONCLUSIONS

The DASI is a reliable predictor of long-term postoperative outcomes.

Impact of Dementia on Outcomes Following Hemiarthroplasty for Femoral Neck Fracture: A National Database Study

BACKGROUND

Dementia poses an elevated risk of femoral neck fracture (FNF) in the elderly, often leading to the need for hemiarthroplasty. Yet, the outcomes of hemiarthroplasty in patients who have dementia remain uncertain. The purpose of this study was to assess whether dementia serves as a potential risk factor for outcomes following hemiarthroplasty.

METHODS

Dementia patients who underwent hemiarthroplasty for FNF with at least 1 year of follow-up were identified using a national insurance database. A 1:1 matched control cohort of patients who do not have dementia was created for comparison. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the rates of complications between the two cohorts. A total of 89,072 patients, of whom half have dementia and half do not, undergoing hemiarthroplasty for FNF were identified.

RESULTS

Aside from increased risks of medical complications (P < 0.01), including pneumonia, cerebrovascular accident, acute kidney injury, urinary tract infection, and sepsis, within 90 days, dementia patients also demonstrated higher rates of surgical complications within 1 year, such as dislocation (odds ratio (OR) 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.71 to 2.04), periprosthetic fractures (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.45), and revision (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.36). On the other hand, dementia patients displayed slightly reduced rates of 90-day deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. However, no significant increase was found in transfusion, myocardial infarction, wound complications, periprosthetic joint infection, or aseptic loosening between the two cohorts. Additionally, patients who have dementia demonstrated a higher likelihood of 90-day emergency department visits, whereas rates of 90-day hospital readmission remained similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Although dementia patients do not exhibit an elevated risk of periprosthetic joint infection, or aseptic loosening, they are more prone to experiencing higher risks of prosthetic dislocation, periprosthetic fracture, and revision. Furthermore, specific medical complications tend to be more prevalent among individuals who have dementia.

Cardiac risk stratification and adverse outcomes in surgically managed patients with isolated traumatic spine injuries

INTRODUCTION

As the incidence of traumatic spine injuries has been steadily increasing, especially in the elderly, the ability to categorize patients based on their underlying risk for the adverse outcomes could be of great value in clinical decision making. This study aimed to investigate the association between the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and adverse outcomes in patients who have undergone surgery for traumatic spine injuries.

METHODS

All adult patients (18 years or older) in the 2013-2019 TQIP database with isolated spine injuries resulting from blunt force trauma, who underwent spinal surgery, were eligible for inclusion in the study. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue (FTR) was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to adjust for potential confounding.

RESULTS

A total of 39,391 patients were included for further analysis. In the regression model, an RCRI ≥ 3 was associated with a threefold risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.19 (2.30-4.43), p < 0.001] and cardiopulmonary complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.27 (2.46-4.34), p < 0.001], as well as a fourfold risk of FTR [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 4.27 (2.59-7.02), p < 0.001], compared to RCRI 0. The risk of all adverse outcomes increased stepwise along with each RCRI score.

CONCLUSION

The RCRI may be a useful tool for identifying patients with traumatic spine injuries who are at an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue after surgery.

Prioritizing patients for hip fracture surgery: the role of frailty and cardiac risk

Introduction

The number of patients with hip fractures continues to rise as the average age of the population increases. Optimizing outcomes in this cohort is predicated on timely operative repair. The aim of this study was to determine if patients with hip fractures who are frail or have a higher cardiac risk suffer from an increased risk of in-hospital mortality when surgery is postponed >24 h.

Methods

All patients registered in the 2013-2021 TQIP dataset who were ≥65 years old and underwent surgical fixation of an isolated hip fracture caused by a ground-level fall were included. Adjustment for confounding was performed using inverse probability weighting (IPW) while stratifying for frailty with the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS) and cardiac risk using the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). The outcome was presented as the absolute risk difference in in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 254,400 patients were included. After IPW, all confounders were balanced. A delay in surgery was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality across all strata, and, as the degree of frailty and cardiac risk increased, so too did the risk of mortality. In patients with OFS ≥4, delaying surgery >24 h was associated with a 2.33 percentage point increase in the absolute mortality rate (95% CI: 0.57-4.09, p = 0.010), resulting in a number needed to harm (NNH) of 43. Furthermore, the absolute risk of mortality increased by 4.65 percentage points in patients with RCRI ≥4 who had their surgery delayed >24 h (95% CI: 0.90-8.40, p = 0.015), resulting in a NNH of 22. For patients with OFS 0 and RCRI 0, the corresponding NNHs when delaying surgery >24 h were 345 and 333, respectively.

Conclusion

Delaying surgery beyond 24 h from admission increases the risk of mortality for all geriatric hip fracture patients. The magnitude of the negative impact increases with the patient's level of cardiac risk and frailty. Operative intervention should not be delayed based on frailty or cardiac risk.

Clinical data or scoring system for predicting mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture: A prospective study

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture in elderly individuals is frequent and is related to a high rate of mortality. Finding the best predictor of death will help to develop better patient care. Aim - To analyze the reliability of the clinical data and assessment scores to predict mortality in acute hip fracture in elderly patients.

PATIENT AND METHODS

Prospective data were collected from all patients > 65 years with acute hip fracture from May to October 2020. The clinical data collected were age, sex, comorbidities, medication, type of fracture and presence of delirium. The assessment scores were ASA, Lee, ACP and Charlson.

RESULTS

The statistically significant results were age > 80 years (OR 1.121 IC95% [1.028-1.221] p = 0.0101) and number of medications (OR5.991 95% CI [2.422-14.823] p <0.001). Three scores showed a correlation with mortality: ASA score (p = 0.017), Lee score (p = 0.024) and ACP score (p = 0.013). The Charlson Comorbidity Index did not correlate with mortality (p = 0.172).

CONCLUSION

To stratify the risk of death, both clinical data and scores should be used. The best clinical indicators are age and number of medications, and the scores are ASA, Lee and ACP.

Validation of the orthopedic frailty score for measuring frailty in hip fracture patients: a cohort study based on the United States National inpatient sample

BACKGROUND

The Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS) has been proposed as a tool for measuring frailty in order to predict short-term postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. This study aims to validate the OFS using a large national patient register to determine its relationship with adverse outcomes as well as length of stay and cost of hospital stay.

METHODS

All adult patients (18 years or older) registered in the 2019 National Inpatient Sample Database who underwent emergency hip fracture surgery following a traumatic fall were eligible for inclusion. The association between the OFS and mortality, complications, and failure-to-rescue (FTR) was determined using Poisson regression models adjusted for potential confounders. The relationship between the OFS and length of stay and cost of hospital stay was instead determined using a quantile regression model.

RESULTS

An estimated 227,850 cases met the study inclusion criteria. There was a stepwise increase in the rate of complications, mortality, and FTR for each additional point on the OFS. After adjusting for potential confounding, OFS 4 was associated with an almost ten-fold increase in the risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 10.6 (4.02-27.7), p < 0.001], a 38% increased risk of complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.38 (1.03-1.85), p = 0.032], and an almost 11-fold increase in the risk of FTR [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 11.6 (4.36-30.9), p < 0.001], compared to OFS 0. Patients with OFS 4 also required a day and a half additional care [change in median length of stay (95% CI): 1.52 (0.97-2.08), p < 0.001] as well as cost approximately $5,200 more to manage [change in median cost of stay (95% CI): 5166 (1921-8411), p = 0.002], compared to those with OFS 0.

CONCLUSION

Patients with an elevated OFS display a substantially increased risk of mortality, complications, and failure-to-rescue as well as a prolonged and more costly hospital stay.

A nationwide analysis on the interaction between frailty and beta-blocker therapy in hip fracture patients

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture patients, who are often frail, continue to be a challenge for healthcare systems with a high postoperative mortality rate. While beta-blocker therapy (BBt) has shown a strong association with reduced postoperative mortality, its effect in frail patients has yet to be determined. This study's aim is to investigate how frailty, measured using the Orthopedic Hip Frailty Score (OFS), modifies the effect of preadmission beta-blocker therapy on mortality in hip fracture patients.

METHODS

This retrospective register-based study included all adult patients in Sweden who suffered a traumatic hip fracture and subsequently underwent surgery between 2008 and 2017. Treatment effect was evaluated using the absolute risk reduction (ARR) in 30-day postoperative mortality when comparing patients with (BBt+) and without (BBt-) ongoing BBt. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to reduce potential confounding when examining the treatment effect. Patients were stratified based on their OFS (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) and the treatment effect was also assessed within each stratum.

RESULTS

A total of 127,305 patients were included, of whom 39% had BBt. When IPTW was performed, there were no residual differences in observed baseline characteristics between the BBt+ and BBt- groups, across all strata. This analysis found that there was a stepwise increase in the ARRs for each additional point on the OFS. Non-frail BBt+ patients (OFS 0) exhibited an ARR of 2.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-2.4%, p < 0.001], while the most frail BBt+ patients (OFS 5) had an ARR of 24% [95% CI 18-30%, p < 0.001], compared to BBt- patients within the same stratum.

CONCLUSION

Beta-blocker therapy is associated with a reduced risk of 30-day postoperative mortality in frail hip fracture patients, with a greater effect being observed with higher Orthopedic Hip Frailty Scores.

The revised cardiac risk index is associated with morbidity and mortality independent of injury severity in elderly patients with rib fractures

BACKGROUND

Risk factors for mortality and in-hospital morbidity among geriatric patients with traumatic rib fractures remain unclear. Such patients are often frail and demonstrate a high comorbidity burden. Moreover, outcomes anticipated by current rubrics may reflect the influence of multisystem injury or surgery, and thus not apply to isolated injuries in geriatric patients. We hypothesized that the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) may assist in risk-stratifying geriatric patients following rib fracture.

METHODS

All geriatric patients (age ≥65 years) with a conservatively managed rib fracture owing to an isolated thoracic injury (thorax AIS ≥1), in the 2013-2019 TQIP database were assessed including demographics and outcomes. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital morbidity as well as mortality was analyzed using Poisson regression models while adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

96,750 geriatric patients sustained rib fractures. Compared to those with RCRI 0, patients with an RCRI score of 1 had a 16% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted incidence rate ratio (adj-IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16 (1.02-1.32), p=0.020]. An RCRI score of 2 [adj-IRR (95% CI): 1.72 (1.44-2.06), p<0.001] or ≥3 [adj-IRR (95% CI): 3.07 (2.31-4.09), p<0.001] was associated with an even greater mortality risk. Those with an increased RCRI also exhibited a higher incidence of myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, stroke, and acute respiratory distress syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

Geriatric patients with rib fractures and an RCRI ≥1 represent a vulnerable and high-risk group. This index may inform the decision to admit for inpatient care and can also guide patient and family counseling as well as computer-based decision-support.

Mode of anesthesia is not associated with outcomes following emergency hip fracture surgery: a population-level cohort study

Background

Hip fractures often occur in frail patients with several comorbidities. In those undergoing emergency surgery, determining the optimal anesthesia modality may be challenging, with equipoise concerning outcomes following either spinal or general anesthesia. In this study, we investigated the association between mode of anesthesia and postoperative morbidity and mortality with subgroup analyses.

Methods

This is a retrospective study using all consecutive adult patients who underwent emergency hip fracture surgery in Orebro County, Sweden, between 2013 and 2017. Patients were extracted from the Swedish National Hip Fracture Registry, and their electronic medical records were reviewed. The association between the type of anesthesia and 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality, as well as in-hospital severe complications (Clavien-Dindo classification ≥3a), was analyzed using Poisson regression models with robust SEs, while the association with 1-year mortality was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. All analyses were adjusted for potential confounders.

Results

A total of 2437 hip fracture cases were included in the study, of whom 60% received spinal anesthesia. There was no statistically significant difference in the risk of 30-day postoperative mortality (adjusted incident rate ratio (IRR) (95% CI): 0.99 (0.72 to 1.36), p=0.952), 90-day postoperative mortality (adjusted IRR (95% CI): 0.88 (0.70 to 1.11), p=0.281), 1-year postoperative mortality (adjusted HR (95% CI): 0.98 (0.83 to 1.15), p=0.773), or in-hospital severe complications (adjusted IRR (95% CI): 1.24 (0.85 to 1.82), p=0.273), when comparing general and spinal anesthesia.

Conclusions

Mode of anesthesia during emergency hip fracture surgery was not associated with an increased risk of postoperative mortality or in-hospital severe complications in the study population or any of the investigated subgroups.

Level of evidence: Therapeutic/Care Management, level III

Developing and validating a scoring system for measuring frailty in patients with hip fracture: a novel model for predicting short-term postoperative mortality

Objectives

Frailty is common among patients with hip fracture and may, in part, contribute to the increased risk of mortality and morbidity after hip fracture surgery. This study aimed to develop a novel frailty score for patients with traumatic hip fracture that could be used to predict postoperative mortality as well as facilitate further research into the role of frailty in patients with hip fracture.

Methods

The Orthopedic Hip Frailty Score (OFS) was developed using a national dataset, retrieved from the Swedish National Quality Registry for Hip Fractures, that contained all adult patients who underwent surgery for a traumatic hip fracture in Sweden between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017. Candidate variables were selected from the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, Sernbo Score, Charlson Comorbidity Index, 5-factor modified Frailty Index, as well as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index and ranked based on their permutation importance, with the top 5 variables being selected for the score. The OFS was then validated on a local dataset that only included patients from Orebro County, Sweden.

Results

The national dataset consisted of 126,065 patients. 2365 patients were present in the local dataset. The most important variables for predicting 30-day mortality were congestive heart failure, institutionalization, non-independent functional status, an age ≥85, and a history of malignancy. In the local dataset, the OFS achieved an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.77 (0.74 to 0.80) and 0.76 (0.74 to 0.78) when predicting 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality, respectively.

Conclusions

The OFS is a significant predictor of short-term postoperative mortality in patients with hip fracture that outperforms, or performs on par with, all other investigated indices.

Level of evidence

Level III, Prognostic and Epidemiological.

The mortality burden in patients with hip fractures and dementia

PURPOSE

Dementia is strongly associated with postoperative death in patients subjected to hip fracture surgery. Nevertheless, there is a distinct lack of research investigating the cause of postoperative mortality in patients with dementia. This study aims to investigate the distribution and the risk of cause-specific postoperative mortality in patients with dementia compared to the general hip fracture population.

METHODS

All adults who underwent emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between 1/1/2008 and 31/12/2017 were considered for inclusion. Pathological, conservatively managed fractures, and reoperations were excluded. The database was retrieved by cross-referencing the Swedish National Quality Registry for Hip Fracture patients with the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare quality registers. A Poisson regression model was used to determine the association between dementia and all-cause as well as cause-specific 30-day postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

134,915 cases met the inclusion criteria, of which 20% had dementia at the time of surgery. The adjusted risk of all-cause 30-day postoperative mortality was 67% higher in patients with dementia after hip fracture surgery compared to patients without dementia [adj. IRR (95% CI): 1.67 (1.60-1.75), p < 0.001]. The risk of cause-specific mortality was also higher in patients with dementia, with up to a sevenfold increase in the risk cerebrovascular mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI): 7.43 (4.99-11.07), p < 0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Hip fracture patients with dementia have a higher risk of death in the first 30 days postoperatively, with a substantially higher risk of mortality due to cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular events, compared to patients without dementia.

Pre-Operative Medications as a Predictor for Post-Operative Complications Following Geriatric Hip Fracture Surgery

Background

Fragility hip fractures are a common orthopedic injury seen in Emergency Departments, with variable outcomes that can range from average to devastating. Currently, few reliable metrics to predict which patients will suffer post-operative complications exist. The aim of this study was to determine if the number and type of pre-operative medications can help predict post-operative complications.

Methods

A prospectively collected database of hip fracture patients was retrospectively reviewed. Patients with isolated greater trochanteric fractures, periprosthetic fractures, or re-fractures were excluded. Pre-operative baseline characteristics as well as number and type of post-operative complications were reviewed. Any complication within 6 months of surgery and complications that could be directly attributable to the surgical procedure within 2 years of surgery were examined. Major complications (return to the operating room, deep infection, pulmonary, cardiac, and hematologic) and minor medical complications were assessed. A multivariate regression model was performed to identify independent risk factors.

Results

Three-hundred ninety-one patients were included. A majority were aged 80–90 and female, and lived at home prior to presentation. Overall, 33.7% of patients suffered a complication within a 2-year follow-up period. Mortality rates were 5.4%, 10.0%, and 14.9% over 30 days, 1 year, and 2 years, respectively. After assessing this relationship while controlling for age, sex, injury type, pre-operative residence, ambulatory status, ASA score, and CCI score, the relationship remained significant for both an increased number of complications (P = .048) and a higher likelihood of having a complication (P = .008). Cardiovascular (P = .003), pulmonary (P = .001), gout (P = .002), or diabetes (P = .042) medications were associated with a higher likelihood for experiencing a complication.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that there is a strong and linear relationship between the number and type of pre-operative medications taken and risk of post-operative complications. This exists for up to 8 medications, at which point further increase does not contribute to an increased risk of complication. This relationship exists even after controlling for confounding variables and can be used by surgeons to better counsel patients and families regarding their specific risk for suffering perioperative complications.

Dementia is a surrogate for frailty in hip fracture mortality prediction

Purpose

Among hip fracture patients both dementia and frailty are particularly prevalent. The aim of the current study was to determine if dementia functions as a surrogate for frailty, or if it confers additional information as a comorbidity when predicting postoperative mortality after a hip fracture.

Methods

All adult patients who suffered a traumatic hip fracture in Sweden between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017 were considered for inclusion. Pathological fractures, non-operatively treated fractures, reoperations, and patients missing data were excluded. Logistic regression (LR) models were fitted, one including and one excluding measurements of frailty, with postoperative mortality as the response variable. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day postoperative mortality. The relative importance for all variables was determined using the permutation importance. New LR models were constructed using the top ten most important variables. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of these models.

Results

121,305 patients were included in the study. Initially, dementia was among the top ten most important variables for predicting 30-day mortality. When measurements of frailty were included, dementia was replaced in relative importance by the ability to walk alone outdoors and institutionalization. There was no significant difference in the predictive ability of the models fitted using the top ten most important variables when comparing those that included [AUC for 30-day mortality (95% CI): 0.82 (0.81–0.82)] and excluded [AUC for 30-day mortality (95% CI): 0.81 (0.80–0.81)] measurements of frailty.

Conclusion

Dementia functions as a surrogate for frailty when predicting mortality up to one year after hip fracture surgery. The presence of dementia in a patient without frailty does not appreciably contribute to the prediction of postoperative mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00068-022-01960-9.

Mortality risk stratification in isolated severe traumatic brain injury using the revised cardiac risk index

PURPOSE

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) continues to be a significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. As cardiovascular events are among the most common extracranial causes of death after a severe TBI, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) could potentially aid in the risk stratification of this patient population. This investigation aimed to determine the association between the RCRI and in-hospital deaths among isolated severe TBI patients.

METHODS

All adult patients registered in the TQIP database between 2013 and 2017 who suffered an isolated severe TBI, defined as a head AIS ≥ 3 with an AIS ≤ 1 in all other body regions, were included. Patients were excluded if they had a head AIS of 6. The association between different RCRI scores (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4) and in-hospital mortality was analyzed using a Poisson regression model with robust standard errors while adjusting for potential confounders, with RCRI 0 as the reference.

RESULTS

259,399 patients met the study's inclusion criteria. RCRI 2 was associated with a 6% increase in mortality risk [adjusted IRR (95% CI) 1.06 (1.01-1.12), p = 0.027], RCRI 3 was associated with a 17% increased risk of mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI) 1.17 (1.05-1.31), p = 0.004], and RCRI ≥ 4 was associated with a 46% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR(95% CI) 1.46 (1.11-1.90), p = 0.006], compared to RCRI 0.

CONCLUSION

An elevated RCRI ≥ 2 is significantly associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality among patients with an isolated severe traumatic brain injury. The simplicity and bedside applicability of the index makes it an attractive choice for risk stratification in this patient population.

The consequences of out-of-hours hip fracture surgery: insights from a retrospective nationwide study

Purpose

The study aimed to investigate the association between out-of-hours surgery and postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. Furthermore, internal fixation and arthroplasty were compared to determine if a difference could be observed in patients operated with these techniques at different times during the day.

Methods

All patients above 18 of age years in Sweden who underwent hip fracture surgery between 2008 and 2017 were eligible for inclusion. Pathological fractures, non-operatively managed fractures, or cases whose time of surgery was missing were excluded. The cohort was subdivided into on-hour (08:00–17:00) and out-of-hours surgery (17:00–08:00). Poisson regression with adjustments for confounders was used to evaluate the association between out-of-hours surgery and both 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality.

Results

Out-of-hours surgery was associated with a 5% increase in the risk of both 30-day [adj. IRR (95% CI) 1.05 (1.00–1.10), p = 0.040] and 90-day [adj. IRR (95% CI) 1.05 (1.01–1.09), p = 0.005] mortality after hip fracture surgery compared to on-hour surgery. There was no statistically significant association between out-of-hours surgery and postoperative mortality among patients who received an internal fixation. Arthroplasties performed out-of-hours were associated with a 13% increase in 30-day postoperative mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI) 1.13 (1.04–1.23), p = 0.005] and an 8% increase in 90-day postoperative mortality [adj. IRR (95% CI) 1.08 (1.01–1.15), p = 0.022] compared to on-hour surgery.

Conclusion

Out-of-hours surgical intervention is associated with an increase in both 30- and 90-day postoperative mortality among hip fracture patients who received an arthroplasty, but not among patients who underwent internal fixation.

A Case-Control Study of Hip Fracture Surgery Timing and Mortality at an Academic Hospital: Day Surgery May Be Safer than Night Surgery

Time from hospital admission to operative intervention has been consistently demonstrated to have a significant impact on mortality. Nonetheless, the relationship between operative start time (day versus night) and associated mortality has not been thoroughly investigated. Methods: All patients who underwent hip fracture surgery at a single academic institution were retrospectively analyzed. Operative start times were dichotomized: (1) day operation—7 a.m. to 4 p.m.; (2) night operation—4 p.m. to 7 a.m. Outcomes between the two groups were evaluated. Results: Overall, 170 patients were included in this study. The average admission to operating room (OR) time was 26.0 ± 18.0 h, and 71.2% of cases were performed as a day operation. The overall 90-day mortality rate was 7.1% and was significantly higher for night operations (18.4% vs. 2.5%; p = 0.001). Following multivariable logistic regression analysis, only night operations were independently associated with 90-day mortality (aOR 8.91, 95% confidence interval 2.19–33.22; p = 0.002). Moreover, these patients were significantly more likely to return to the hospital within 50 days (34.7% vs. 19.0%; p = 0.029) and experience mortality prior to discharge (8.2% vs. 0.8%; p = 0.025). Notably, admission to OR time was not associated with in-hospital mortality (29.22 vs. 25.90 h; p = 0.685). Hip fracture surgery during daytime operative hours may minimize mortalities.

Predicting 1-Year Mortality after Hip Fracture Surgery: An Evaluation of Multiple Machine Learning Approaches

Postoperative death within 1 year following hip fracture surgery is reported to be up to 27%. In the current study, we benchmarked the predictive precision and accuracy of the algorithms support vector machine (SVM), naïve Bayes classifier (NB), and random forest classifier (RF) against logistic regression (LR) in predicting 1-year postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients as well as assessed the relative importance of the variables included in the LR model. All adult patients who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden, between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2017 were included in the study. Patients with pathological fractures and non-operatively managed hip fractures, as well as those who died within 30 days after surgery, were excluded from the analysis. A LR model with an elastic net regularization were fitted and compared to NB, SVM, and RF. The relative importance of the variables in the LR model was then evaluated using the permutation importance. The LR model including all the variables demonstrated an acceptable predictive ability on both the training and test datasets for predicting one-year postoperative mortality (Area under the curve (AUC) = 0.74 and 0.74 respectively). NB, SVM, and RF tended to over-predict the mortality, particularly NB and SVM algorithms. In contrast, LR only over-predicted mortality when the predicted probability of mortality was larger than 0.7. The LR algorithm outperformed the other three algorithms in predicting 1-year postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. The most important predictors of 1-year mortality were the presence of a metastatic carcinoma, American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA) classification, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) ≤ 4, age, dementia, congestive heart failure, hypertension, surgery using pins/screws, and chronic kidney disease.

Postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients stratified by the Revised Cardiac Risk Index: a Swedish nationwide retrospective cohort study

Objectives

The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) is a tool that can be used to evaluate the 30-day risk of postoperative myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest and mortality. This study aims to confirm its association with postoperative mortality in patients who underwent hip fracture surgery.

Methods

All adults who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017 were included in this study. The database was retrieved by cross-referencing the Swedish National Quality Register for hip fractures with the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare registers. The outcomes of interest were the association between the RCRI score and mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 1 year postoperatively.

Results

134 915 cases were included in the current study. There was a statistically significant linear trend in postoperative mortality with increasing RCRI scores at 30 days, 90 days and 1 year. An RCRI score ≥4 was associated with a 3.1 times greater risk of 30-day postoperative mortality (adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.13, p<0.001), a 2.5 times greater risk of 90-day postoperative mortality (adjusted IRR 2.54, p<0.001) and a 2.8 times greater risk of 1-year postoperative mortality (adjusted HR 2.81, p<0.001) compared with that observed with an RCRI score of 0.

Conclusion

An increasing RCRI score is strongly associated with an elevated risk 30-day, 90-day and 1-year postoperative mortality after primary hip fracture surgery. The objective and easily retrievable nature of the variables included in the RCRI calculation makes it an appealing choice for risk stratification in the clinical setting.

Levels of evidence

Level III.

β-Adrenergic blockade in patients with dementia and hip fracture is associated with decreased postoperative mortality

Purpose

Dementia, present in 20% of hip fracture patients, is associated with an almost threefold increase in postoperative mortality risk. These patients have a substantially higher incidence of cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular mortality after hip fracture surgery compared to patients without dementia. This study aimed to investigate the association between beta-blocker therapy and postoperative mortality in patients with dementia undergoing hip fracture surgery.

Methods

This nationwide study included all patients in Sweden with the diagnosis of dementia who underwent emergency surgery for a hip fracture between January 2008 and December 2017. Cases where the hip fracture was pathological or conservatively managed were not included. Poisson regression analysis with robust standard errors was performed while controlling for confounders to determine the relationship between beta-blocker therapy and all-cause, as well as cause-specific, postoperative mortality.

Results

A total of 26,549 patients met the study inclusion criteria, of whom 8258 (31%) had ongoing beta-blocker therapy at time of admission. After adjusting for clinically relevant variables, the incidence of postoperative mortality in patients receiving beta-blocker therapy was decreased by 50% at 30 days [adj. IRR (95% CI) 0.50 (0.45–0.54), p < 0.001] and 34% at 90 days [adj. IRR (95% CI) 0.66 (0.62–0.70), p < 0.001]. Cause-specific mortality analysis demonstrated a significant reduction in the incidence of postoperative cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular death within 30 and 90 days postoperatively.

Conclusion

Beta-blocker therapy is associated with decreased postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients with dementia up to 90 days after surgery. This finding warrants further investigation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00068-021-01723-y.

Predictive Values of Preoperative Characteristics for 30-Day Mortality in Traumatic Hip Fracture Patients

Hip fracture patients have a high risk of mortality after surgery, with 30-day postoperative rates as high as 10%. This study aimed to explore the predictive ability of preoperative characteristics in traumatic hip fracture patients as they relate to 30-day postoperative mortality using readily available variables in clinical practice. All adult patients who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between 2008 and 2017 were included in the analysis. Associations between the possible predictors and 30-day mortality was performed using a multivariate logistic regression (LR) model; the bidirectional stepwise method was used for variable selection. An LR model and convolutional neural network (CNN) were then fitted for prediction. The relative importance of individual predictors was evaluated using the permutation importance and Gini importance. A total of 134,915 traumatic hip fracture patients were included in the study. The CNN and LR models displayed an acceptable predictive ability for predicting 30-day postoperative mortality using a test dataset, displaying an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of as high as 0.76. The variables with the highest importance in prediction were age, sex, hypertension, dementia, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). Both the CNN and LR models achieved an acceptable performance in identifying patients at risk of mortality 30 days after hip fracture surgery. The most important variables for prediction, based on the variables used in the current study are age, hypertension, dementia, sex, ASA classification, and RCRI.

Surgical management of displaced femoral neck fractures in patients with dementia: a comparison in mortality between hemiarthroplasty and pins/screws

Introduction

Dementia is common in patients with hip fractures and is strongly associated with increased postoperative mortality. The choice of surgical intervention for displaced femoral neck fractures (dFNF) in patients with dementia has been a matter of debate. This study aims to investigate how short- and long-term mortality differs between those who have been operated with hemiarthroplasty or pins/screws.

Methods

All patients with dementia and dFNF, i.e., Garden III and IV, who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery, with either hemiarthroplasty or pins/screws, in Sweden between Jan 1, 2008 and Dec 31, 2017 were eligible for inclusion in the current study. Patients were divided into two groups based on the surgical intervention: hemiarthroplasty and pins/screws. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day postoperative mortality, and the secondary outcome was 1-year postoperative mortality. Poisson and Cox regression analyses were performed both before and after propensity score matching.

Results

A total of 9394 cases met the inclusion criteria; 84% received hemiarthroplasty and 16% received pins/screws. In the unmatched analysis, the adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) for 30-day postoperative mortality was not affected by the chosen surgical method (adj. IRR 0.96, CI 95% 0.83–1.12, p = 0.629). After propensity score matching, similar results were observed with no difference in 30-day postoperative mortality (adj. IRR 0.89, CI 95% 0.74–1.09, p = 0.286). There was a statistically significant decrease in the risk of 1-year postoperative mortality in the hemiarthroplasty group compared to the pins/screws group, both before and after propensity score matching.

Conclusion

This study could not demonstrate any difference in 30-day mortality in patients with dementia and dFNFs when comparing hemiarthroplasty with pins/screws. Patients that received hemiarthroplasties did, however, have a lower risk of 1-year postoperative mortality.