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Koltenyuk V, Merckling M, Li M, Chanmin Z, Butler JB. Frailty is a predictor of immediate postoperative complications following surgical management of knee dislocations. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF ORTHOPAEDIC SURGERY & TRAUMATOLOGY : ORTHOPEDIE TRAUMATOLOGIE 2024; 34:2465-2471. [PMID: 38643261 DOI: 10.1007/s00590-024-03941-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2024] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
PURPOSE To assess the utility of frailty in predicting outcomes following surgical intervention for KDs. METHODS The NIS database was queried for non-congenital knee dislocations from 2015 to 2019 that underwent ligament repair or surgical reduction. Patients were assigned frailty scores using the mFI-11, and outcomes were compared. Multivariate regression and ROC curve analysis were used to assess the independent association of obesity, frailty, VI, and age with adverse outcomes. RESULTS A total of 3797 patients who underwent surgical management were included. Frailty was associated with extended LOS (OR 1.353, 95% CI 1.212-1.510, p < 0.001), adverse discharge (OR 1.716, 95% CI 1.515-1.946, p < 0.001), and complications (OR 1.449, 95% CI 1.352-1.553, p < 0.001). Severely frailty was associated with extended LOS (OR 1.838, 95% CI 1.611-2.097, p < 0.001), adverse discharge (OR 2.756, 95% CI 2.394-3.171, p < 0.001), and complications (OR 1.603, 95% CI 1.453-1.768, p < 0.001). Additionally, VI was a risk factor for extended LOS (OR 7.647 (6.442-9.076) p < 0.001), complications (OR 2.065 (1.810-2.341) p < 0.001), and adverse discharge (OR 1.825 (1.606-2.075), p < 0.001). Obesity was a risk factor for extended LOS (OR 1.599 (1.470-1.739), p < 0.001) and complications (OR 1.235 (1.108-1.377), p < 0.001). AUC analysis showed that frailty was the most accurate predictor of all outcomes when compared to VI, obesity, and age. CONCLUSIONS Frailty is superior to age and obesity, and comparable to VI, at predicting adverse outcomes following surgical management of KDs. These findings suggest that frailty assessment might play a role in risk stratification and preoperative planning for KD patients that require surgical intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Koltenyuk
- School of Medicine, Westchester Medical Center, New York Medical College, 40 Sunshine Cottage Rd, Valhalla, NY, 10595, USA.
| | - Matthew Merckling
- School of Medicine, Westchester Medical Center, New York Medical College, 40 Sunshine Cottage Rd, Valhalla, NY, 10595, USA
| | - Michael Li
- School of Medicine, Westchester Medical Center, New York Medical College, 40 Sunshine Cottage Rd, Valhalla, NY, 10595, USA
| | - Zachary Chanmin
- College of Osteopathic Medicine, New York Institute of Technology, Glen Head, NY, USA
| | - Jay B Butler
- Orthopedic and Fracture Specialists, Portland, OR, USA
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Forssten MP, Cao Y, Mohammad Ismail A, Tennakoon L, Spain DA, Mohseni S. Comparative Analysis of Frailty Scores for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Hip Fracture Patients: Insights from the United States National Inpatient Sample. J Pers Med 2024; 14:621. [PMID: 38929842 PMCID: PMC11204756 DOI: 10.3390/jpm14060621] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/05/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024] Open
Abstract
The aim of the current investigation was to compare the ability of several frailty scores to predict adverse outcomes in hip fracture patients. All adult patients (18 years or older) who suffered a hip fracture due to a fall and underwent surgical fixation were extracted from the 2019 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) Database. A combination of logistic regression and bootstrapping was used to compare the predictive ability of the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS), the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), the 11-factor modified Frailty Index (11-mFI) and 5-factor (5-mFI) modified Frailty Index, as well as the Johns Hopkins Frailty Indicator. A total of 227,850 patients were extracted from the NIS. In the prediction of in-hospital mortality and failure-to-rescue (FTR), the OFS surpassed all other frailty measures, approaching an acceptable predictive ability for mortality [AUC (95% CI): 0.69 (0.67-0.72)] and achieving an acceptable predictive ability for FTR [AUC (95% CI): 0.70 (0.67-0.72)]. The NHFS demonstrated the highest predictive ability for predicting any complication [AUC (95% CI): 0.62 (0.62-0.63)]. The 11-mFI exhibited the highest predictive ability for cardiovascular complications [AUC (95% CI): 0.66 (0.64-0.67)] and the NHFS achieved the highest predictive ability for delirium [AUC (95% CI): 0.69 (0.68-0.70)]. No score succeeded in effectively predicting venous thromboembolism or infections. In summary, the investigated frailty scores were most effective in predicting in-hospital mortality and failure-to-rescue; however, they struggled to predict complications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maximilian Peter Forssten
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, Orebro 701 82, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82 Orebro, Sweden;
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, 701 82 Orebro, Sweden;
| | | | - Lakshika Tennakoon
- Department of Surgery, Section of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; (L.T.); (D.A.S.)
| | - David A. Spain
- Department of Surgery, Section of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; (L.T.); (D.A.S.)
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, 701 82 Orebro, Sweden;
- Division of Trauma, Critical Care & Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City, Abu Dhabi P.O. Box 11001, United Arab Emirates
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Ioannidis I, Forssten MP, Mohammad Ismail A, Cao Y, Tennakoon L, Spain DA, Mohseni S. The relationship and predictive value of dementia and frailty for mortality in patients with surgically managed hip fractures. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 2024; 50:339-345. [PMID: 37656179 PMCID: PMC11035458 DOI: 10.1007/s00068-023-02356-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/21/2023] [Indexed: 09/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Both dementia and frailty have been associated with worse outcomes in patients with hip fractures. However, the interrelation and predictive value of these two entities has yet to be clarified. The current study aimed to investigate the predictive relationship between dementia, frailty, and in-hospital mortality after hip fracture surgery. METHODS All patients registered in the 2019 National Inpatient Sample Database who were 50 years or older and underwent emergency hip fracture surgery following a traumatic fall were eligible for inclusion. Logistic regression (LR) models were constructed with in-hospital mortality as the response variables. One model was constructed including markers of frailty and one model was constructed excluding markers of frailty [Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS) and weight loss]. The feature importance of all variables was determined using the permutation importance method. New LR models were then fitted using the top ten most important variables. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of these models. RESULTS An estimated total of 216,395 patients were included. Dementia was the 7th most important variable for predicting in-hospital mortality. When the OFS and weight loss were included, they replaced dementia in importance. There was no significant difference in the predictive ability of the models when comparing the model that included markers of frailty [AUC for in-hospital mortality (95% CI) 0.79 (0.77-0.81)] with the model that excluded markers of frailty [AUC for in-hospital mortality (95% CI) 0.79 (0.77-0.80)]. CONCLUSION Dementia functions as a surrogate for frailty when predicting in-hospital mortality in hip fracture patients. This finding highlights the importance of early frailty screening for improvement of care pathways and discussions with patients and their families in regard to expected outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ioannis Ioannidis
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Maximilian Peter Forssten
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Ahmad Mohammad Ismail
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Lakshika Tennakoon
- Department of Surgery, Section of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - David A Spain
- Department of Surgery, Section of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden.
- Division of Trauma, Critical Care & Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery, Sheik Shakhbot Medical City Mayo Clinic, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
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Forssten MP, Mohammad Ismail A, Ioannidis I, Ribeiro MAF, Cao Y, Sarani B, Mohseni S. Prioritizing patients for hip fracture surgery: the role of frailty and cardiac risk. Front Surg 2024; 11:1367457. [PMID: 38525320 PMCID: PMC10957751 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2024.1367457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2024] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction The number of patients with hip fractures continues to rise as the average age of the population increases. Optimizing outcomes in this cohort is predicated on timely operative repair. The aim of this study was to determine if patients with hip fractures who are frail or have a higher cardiac risk suffer from an increased risk of in-hospital mortality when surgery is postponed >24 h. Methods All patients registered in the 2013-2021 TQIP dataset who were ≥65 years old and underwent surgical fixation of an isolated hip fracture caused by a ground-level fall were included. Adjustment for confounding was performed using inverse probability weighting (IPW) while stratifying for frailty with the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS) and cardiac risk using the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). The outcome was presented as the absolute risk difference in in-hospital mortality. Results A total of 254,400 patients were included. After IPW, all confounders were balanced. A delay in surgery was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality across all strata, and, as the degree of frailty and cardiac risk increased, so too did the risk of mortality. In patients with OFS ≥4, delaying surgery >24 h was associated with a 2.33 percentage point increase in the absolute mortality rate (95% CI: 0.57-4.09, p = 0.010), resulting in a number needed to harm (NNH) of 43. Furthermore, the absolute risk of mortality increased by 4.65 percentage points in patients with RCRI ≥4 who had their surgery delayed >24 h (95% CI: 0.90-8.40, p = 0.015), resulting in a NNH of 22. For patients with OFS 0 and RCRI 0, the corresponding NNHs when delaying surgery >24 h were 345 and 333, respectively. Conclusion Delaying surgery beyond 24 h from admission increases the risk of mortality for all geriatric hip fracture patients. The magnitude of the negative impact increases with the patient's level of cardiac risk and frailty. Operative intervention should not be delayed based on frailty or cardiac risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maximilian Peter Forssten
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Ahmad Mohammad Ismail
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Ioannis Ioannidis
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Marcelo A. F. Ribeiro
- Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Khalifa University and Gulf Medical University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Babak Sarani
- Division of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Shahin Mohseni
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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Mohseni S, Forssten MP, Mohammad Ismail A, Cao Y, Hildebrand F, Sarani B, Ribeiro MAF. Investigating the link between frailty and outcomes in geriatric patients with isolated rib fractures. Trauma Surg Acute Care Open 2024; 9:e001206. [PMID: 38347893 PMCID: PMC10860062 DOI: 10.1136/tsaco-2023-001206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Studies have shown an increased risk of morbidity in elderly patients suffering rib fractures from blunt trauma. The association between frailty and rib fractures on adverse outcomes is still ill-defined. In the current investigation, we sought to delineate the association between frailty, measured using the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS), and outcomes in geriatric patients with isolated rib fractures. Methods All geriatric (aged 65 years or older) patients registered in the 2013-2019 Trauma Quality Improvement database with a conservatively managed isolated rib fracture were considered for inclusion. An isolated rib fracture was defined as the presence of ≥1 rib fracture, a thorax Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) between 1 and 5, an AIS ≤1 in all other regions, as well as the absence of pneumothorax, hemothorax, or pulmonary contusion. Based on patients' OFS, patients were classified as non-frail (OFS 0), pre-frail (OFS 1), or frail (OFS ≥2). The prevalence ratio (PR) of composite complications, in-hospital mortality, failure-to-rescue (FTR), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission between the OFS groups was determined using Poisson regression models to adjust for potential confounding. Results A total of 65 375 patients met the study's inclusion criteria of whom 60% were non-frail, 29% were pre-frail, and 11% were frail. There was a stepwise increased risk of complications, in-hospital mortality, and FTR from non-frail to pre-frail and frail. Compared with non-frail patients, frail patients exhibited a 87% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted PR (95% CI): 1.87 (1.52-2.31), p<0.001], a 44% increased risk of complications [adjusted PR (95% CI): 1.44 (1.23-1.67), p<0.001], a doubling in the risk of FTR [adjusted PR (95% CI): 2.08 (1.45-2.98), p<0.001], and a 17% increased risk of ICU admission [adjusted PR (95% CI): 1.17 (1.11-1.23), p<0.001]. Conclusion There is a strong association between frailty, measured using the OFS, and adverse outcomes in geriatric patients managed conservatively for rib fractures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shahin Mohseni
- Orebro universitet Fakulteten for medicin och halsa, Orebro, Sweden
- Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City—Mayo Clinic, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - Maximilian Peter Forssten
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Ahmad Mohammad Ismail
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Orebro University Hospital, Orebro, Sweden
- School of Medical Sciences, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Yang Cao
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Orebro University, Orebro, Sweden
| | - Frank Hildebrand
- Department of Orthopedics, Trauma and Reconstructive Surgery, University Hospital RWTH Aachen, Aachen, Germany
| | - Babak Sarani
- George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Marcelo AF Ribeiro
- Department of Surgery, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City—Mayo Clinic, Abu Dhabi, UAE
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