Comparative trends in hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures and other frequent diseases between 2000 and 2008

Muscle parameters in fragility fracture risk prediction in older adults: A scoping review

Half of osteoporotic fractures occur in patients with normal/osteopenic bone density or at intermediate or low estimated risk. Muscle measures have been shown to contribute to fracture risk independently of bone mineral density. The objectives were to review the measurements of muscle health (muscle mass/quantity/quality, strength and function) and their association with incident fragility fractures and to summarize their use in clinical practice. This scoping review follows the PRISMA-ScR guidelines for reporting. Our search strategy covered the three overreaching concepts of 'fragility fractures', 'muscle health assessment' and 'risk'. We retrieved 14 745 references from Medline Ovid SP, EMBASE, Web of Science Core Collection and Google Scholar. We included original and prospective studies on community-dwelling adults aged over 50 years that analysed an association between at least one muscle parameter and incident fragility fractures. We systematically extracted 17 items from each study, including methodology, general characteristics and results. Data were summarized in tables and graphically presented in adjusted forest plots. Sixty-seven articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In total, we studied 60 muscle parameters or indexes and 322 fracture risk ratios over 2.8 million person-years (MPY). The median (interquartile range) sample size was 1642 (921-5756), age 69.2 (63.5-73.6) years, follow-up 10.0 (4.4-12.0) years and number of incident fragility fractures 166 (88-277). A lower muscle mass was positively/not/negatively associated with incident fragility fracture in 28 (2.0), 64 (2.5) and 10 (0.2 MPY) analyses. A lower muscle strength was positively/not/negatively associated with fractures in 53 (1.3), 57 (1.7 MPY) and 0 analyses. A lower muscle function was positively/not/negatively associated in 63 (1.9), 45 (1.0 MPY) and 0 analyses. An in-depth analysis shows how each single muscle parameter was associated with each fragility fractures subtype. This review summarizes markers of muscle health and their association with fragility fractures. Measures of muscle strength and function appeared to perform better for fracture risk prediction. Of these, hand grip strength and gait speed are likely to be the most practical measures for inclusion in clinical practice, as in the evaluation of sarcopenia or in further fracture risk assessment scores. Measures of muscle mass did not appear to predict fragility fractures and might benefit from further research, on D3-creatine dilution test, lean mass indexes and artificial intelligence methods.

Clinical features and burden of osteoporotic fractures among the elderly in the USA from 2016 to 2018

This study provides a national estimate of the incidence of hospitalizations and assesses the clinical features and outcomes during inpatient admission due to osteoporotic fractures diagnosed by ICD-10-CM/PCS among the elderly in the USA, using the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 2016-2018.

PURPOSE

To provide a national estimate of the incidence of hospitalizations and assess the clinical features and outcomes during inpatient admission due to osteoporotic fractures (OFs) among the elderly in the USA.

METHODS

The study included all inpatients aged 65 years and older who participated in the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). We conducted a retrospective analysis of hospitalizations with OFs diagnosed by the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification/Procedure Coding System (ICD-10-CM/PCS), using the US NIS, 2016-2018. Trends in epidemiological characteristics and outcomes were calculated by annual percentage change (APC).

RESULTS

From 2016 to 2018, there were an estimated 0.16 million hospitalizations for OFs, and the estimated annual incidence rate changed from 995 cases per 1 million persons in 2016 to 1114 cases per 1 million persons in 2018 (APC, 5.8% [95% CI, 0.0 to 12.0]; P > 0.05). Over two-thirds of the patients (68.2%) were age-related osteoporosis with current pathological fracture, and OFs were more likely to occur in vertebra (51.7%) and femur (34.7%). During the hospitalization, the average length of stay (LOS) was 5.83 days, the average cost reached $60,901.04, and the overall mortality was 2.3%. All outcomes including LOS, average cost and mortality did not change significantly in 2016-2018 (all P values for trend were over 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Between 2016 and 2018, the incidence rate of OFs remained relatively stable, but the total number of cases was huge. OFs was predominantly age-related, mostly in vertebrae and femurs, with relatively stable cost and mortality during hospitalization.

Systematic review of major osteoporotic fracture to hip fracture incidence rate ratios worldwide: implications for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)-derived estimates

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) is the most widely used tool for fracture prediction. It provides 10-year probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF). It uses country-specific hip fracture incidence and life expectancy data, and for most countries, MOF/hip fracture incidence rate ratios (IRRs) from Malmo Sweden. However, the risk of MOF varies by age, sex, and geography. The objective is to compare the MOF/hip IRRs across countries, by sex and age. This systematic review targeted observational studies of MOF and hip fractures in individuals >50 years (PROSPERO 2019 CRD42019129259). One reviewer screened potential articles. Two reviewers completed duplicate and independent data abstraction, and assessed study quality based on population representativeness, study design and duration, definition of ethnicity, and fracture characteristics. We calculated the MOF/hip IRRs (95% confidence interval) and Z-values to compare IRRs in various countries to those for Sweden. We included 27 studies, of fair to good quality in the majority, from Europe (15), US and Canada (7), Asia (3), and Australia (2). The IRRs were twofold to 10-fold higher in younger compared to older age categories, and in women compared to men, with few exceptions. Within Europe, and using Sweden as a reference, MOF/Hip IRRs in women 50-54 years from Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, and UK were significantly lower by 38% to 60%. Findings were similar in men. At older ages, MOF/Hip IRRs were consistently lower in women from European countries compared to Sweden, by 10%-40% and 11%-51%, at 75-79 years and 85-89 years, respectively. Findings were heterogenous in men and in non-European countries. In conclusion, the MOF/hip fracture IRR may vary between countries. The variability at older ages may affect FRAX prediction when country-specific fracture IRRs are not used. Further research is needed to elucidate the implication of our findings to FRAX-derived MOF estimates in various countries. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Hospitalization in High Fracture Risk Older Adults with Osteoporosis Using the Safe Functional Motion Test: A Longitudinal Analysis

The Safe Functional Motion Test (SFM-5) is a five item performance based clinical assessment tool quantifying habitual daily movement that may increase the risk of osteoporosis and fractures. Fractures are a major cause of hospitalization and contributor to increased health care utilization costs. A sample of 1,700 adults, aged 40 and older, from an osteoporosis specialty clinic were evaluated to determine if the initial SFM-5 score had predictive utility for determining inpatient hospitalization at 12, 24, and 36 months post fracture. When adjusted for sex, age, and prior hospitalization, logistic regression analyses indicated that the SFM-5 score significantly predicted inpatient hospitalization within 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months. For every 10 point decrease in the SFM-5 score, the 1 year risk of hospitalization increased by 24%. The SFM-5 is a tool to use when assessing habitual functional movements and hospitalization risk among high-fracture risk adults.

Learning process of ultrasound-guided Ilio-fascial compartment block on a simulator: a feasibility study

BACKGROUND

Ultrasound-guided fascia iliaca compartment block (US-FICB) is not part of the learning curriculum of the emergency physicians (EP) and is usually performed by anesthesiologists. However, several studies promote EP to use this procedure. The goal of this study was to assess the feasibility of a training concept for non-anesthesiologists for the US-FICB on a simulator based on a validating learning path.

METHOD

This was a feasibility study. Emergency physicians and medical students received a 1-day training with a learning phase (theoretical and practical skills), followed by an assessment phase. The primary outcome at the assessment phase was the number of attempts before successfully completing the procedure. The secondary outcomes were the success rate at first attempt, the length of procedure (LOP), and the stability of the probe, corresponding to the visualization of the needle tip (and its tracking) throughout the procedure, evaluated on a Likert scale.

RESULTS

A total of 25 participants were included. The median number of attempts was 2.0 for emergency physicians and 2.5 for medical students, and this difference was not significant (p = 0.140). Seven participants (28%) succeeded at the first attempt of the procedure; the difference between emergency physicians and medical students was not significant (37% versus 21%; p = 0.409). The average LOP was 19.7 min with a significant difference between emergency physicians and medical students (p = 0.001). There was no significant difference regarding the stability of the probe between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

Our 1-day training for non-anesthesiologists with or without previous skills in ultrasound seems to be feasible for learning the US-FICB procedure on a simulator.

Unknown osteoporosis in older patients admitted to post-acute rehabilitation

BACKGROUND

Osteoporotic fractures are associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and increased health care use. As the number of older adults increases, identifying those at increased risk for osteoporotic fractures has become of utmost importance to providing them with preventive and therapeutic interventions.

AIMS

To determine the prevalence of unknown clinical and densitometric osteoporosis and to investigate the performance of different diagnostic strategies for osteoporosis in elderly patients admitted to rehabilitation.

METHOD

This is an observational study. Eligible participants were older adults admitted to rehabilitation in an academic hospital in Switzerland over an 11-month period. Patients with previously unknown osteoporosis underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), vertebral fracture assessment (VFA), and history review for past fractures.

RESULTS

Complete assessment was available for 252 patients. Previously undiagnosed osteoporosis was identified in 62.3% of these patients, a proportion that was higher among women (71.5%) than men (44.8%). DXA proved most sensitive, followed by VFA and history review. Results differed across gender: DXA remained the most sensitive single test among women, but VFA proved most sensitive in men. The best test to combine with history review was DXA in women (detection increasing from 47.5 to 93.2%) and VFA in men (detection increasing from 35.9 to 84.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of previously unknown osteoporosis appears very high in elderly patients admitted to post-acute rehabilitation. The combination of history review of previous fractures with DXA in women and with VFA in men appears the best two-step strategy to improving detection of osteoporosis in this population.

Osteoporosis, diabetes, and hypertension are major risk factors for mortality in older adults: an intermediate report on a prospective survey of 1467 community-dwelling elderly healthy pensioners in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis is an important morbidity factor for ageing populations in developed countries. However, compared to the amount of information available on diabetes and cardiovascular disease, little is known about the direct impact of osteoporosis on general mortality in older age.

METHODS

We obtained data from a prospective population-based cohort of pensioners from the SENIORLAB study who were subjectively healthy. The inclusion criteria were an age of at least 60 years and Swiss residence. We assessed and analysed clinical measures, voluntary reports, and laboratory values.

RESULTS

In total, 1467 subjects were included in the cohort. The mean follow-up time was 3.68 years (95% confidence interval, 3.64-3.71). The ages of the included participants ranged from 60 to 99 years. At follow-up, there were 1401 survivors, and 66 participants had died. According to the multivariate analysis (Cox regression), osteoporosis was the most important risk factor for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 4.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.82-10.91), followed by diabetes (hazard ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-4.52) and hypertension (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Osteoporosis is a major risk factor for all-cause mortality in a subjectively healthy senior population, followed by type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Osteoporosis should be more actively diagnosed in healthy pensioners before they develop osteoporosis-associated health incidents.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The present study was registered in the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number registry: ISRCTN53778569 .

Spontaneous osteoclastogenesis: Hypothesis for gender-unrelated osteoporosis screening and diagnosis

Women are at greater risk of developing osteoporosis (OP). However, in the past few years it has become more widely recognized that OP is a significant problem also in men although OP is frequently under-diagnosed and, consequently, under treated in men. Most guidelines, screening and fracture risk evaluation methods as well as pharmacologic agents have been developed for women and then adapted to men. Bone Mineral Density (BMD) measurement by Dual X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) is reported as T score and the capability of DEXA to diagnose OP and predict fracture risk is still debated. In addition, the use of female T score references for the diagnosis of OP in men is incorrect for the following reasons: 1) DXA definition was developed just for Caucasian women, 2) men and women display structural differences in terms of bone growth, catabolism and size; 3) aging men have more periosteal apposition, less cortical porosity and endocortical resorption than aging women; and 4) T scores results, both in man and in women, can be affected by the presence of co-morbidities and it is known that in men OP is often secondary. From a biological point of view, OP is mainly due to increased osteoclastic activity leading to an imbalance in bone remodeling that favors resorption. However, some evidence suggests a more complex identity for osteoclasts (OCs) over and above their simple role of 'bone eaters'. In our laboratory, we observed spontaneous OCs formation in vitro in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from OP patients (n.12 female patients and n.6 male patients; DXA T score-2.5 or less). Some researchers demonstrated OCs gender differences in bone resorption activity of female-derived versus male-derived OCs. Indeed, further data from our laboratory also showed gender differences in number of spontaneously differentiated OCs and differentiation time. Therefore, we hypothesized that it would be possible to perform OP screening and diagnosis observing and measuring PBMCs different ability to differentiate spontaneously into OCs in male and female patients. If this hypothesis will be confirmed, it will result in an effective and efficient strategy for OP screening, diagnosis, monitoring and fracture prevention, targeting health service resources on selected patients. However, our hypothesis must be tested in a properly designed clinical trial and several key issues still need to be addressed.

Predictors of near-term fracture in osteoporotic women aged ≥65 years, based on data from the study of osteoporotic fractures

Using data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), several clinical characteristics predictive of near-term (1-year) risk of hip and non-vertebral fracture among elderly osteoporotic women were identified, and a subset of those for hip fracture was incorporated into a risk assessment tool. Additional research is needed to validate study findings.

INTRODUCTION

While several risk factors are known to contribute to long-term fracture risk in women with osteoporosis, factors predicting fracture risk over a shorter time horizon, such as over a 1-year period, are less well-established.

METHODS

We utilized a repeated-observations design and data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures to identify factors contributing to near-term risk of hip fracture and any non-vertebral fracture, respectively, among osteoporotic women aged ≥65 years. Potential predictors of hip fracture and any non-vertebral fracture over the 1-year period subsequent to each qualifying SOF exam were examined using multivariable frailty models. Because the discriminative ability of the hip fracture model was acceptable, a corresponding risk-prediction tool was also developed.

RESULTS

Study population included 2499 women with osteoporosis, who contributed 6811 observations. Incidence of fracture in the 1-year period subsequent to each exam was 2.2% for hip fracture and 6.6% for any non-vertebral fracture. Independent predictors of hip fracture included low total hip T-score, prior fracture, and risk factors for falls (multivariable model c-statistic = 0.71 (95% CI 0.67-0.76)). Independent predictors of any non-vertebral fracture included age, total hip T-score, prior falls, prior fracture, walking speed, Parkinson's disease or stroke, and smoking (multivariable model c-statistic = 0.62 (0.59-0.65)).

CONCLUSIONS

Several clinical characteristics predictive of hip and non-vertebral fracture within a 1-year follow-up period among elderly women with osteoporosis were identified, and a subset of those for hip fracture was incorporated into a risk assessment tool. Assessment of these risk factors may help guide osteoporosis treatment choices by identifying patients in whom there is urgency to treat. Additional research is needed to validate the findings of this study and the accuracy of the risk assessment tool.

Hip fracture incidence 2003-2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study

OBJECTIVES

Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations.

METHODS

Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050.

RESULTS

Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men.

CONCLUSIONS

We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.

Burden of illness for osteoporotic fractures compared with other serious diseases among postmenopausal women in the United States

OBJECTIVES

To provide a national estimate of the incidence of hospitalizations due to osteoporotic fractures (OFs) in women; compare this with the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and breast cancer; and assess temporal trends in the incidence and length of hospitalizations.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included all women 55 years and older at the time of admission, admitted to a hospital participating in the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample for an outcome of interest. We performed a retrospective analysis of hospitalizations for OFs (hip, forearm, spine, pelvis, distal femur, wrist, and humerus), MI, stroke, or breast cancer, using the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 2000-2011.

RESULTS

From 2000 to 2011, there were 4.9 million hospitalizations for OF, 2.9 million for MI, 3.0 million for stroke, and 0.7 million for breast cancer. Osteoporotic fractures accounted for more than 40% of the hospitalizations in these 4 outcomes, with an age-adjusted rate of 1124 admissions per 100,000 person-years. In comparison, MI, stroke, and breast cancer had age-adjusted incidence rates of 668, 687, and 151 admissions per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The annual total population facility-related hospital cost was highest for hospitalizations due to OFs ($5.1 billion), followed by MI ($4.3 billion), stroke ($3.0 billion), and breast cancer ($0.5 billion).

CONCLUSION

These data provide evidence that in US women 55 years and older, the hospitalization burden of OFs and population facility-related hospital cost is greater than that of MI, stroke, or breast cancer. Prioritization of bone health and supporting programs such as fracture liaison services is needed to reduce this substantial burden.

A systematic review of osteoporosis medication adherence and osteoporosis-related fracture costs in men

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Male osteoporosis is an increasingly important public health concern. Although several medications are approved for the treatment of osteoporosis, medication non-adherence and the associated consequences are not well documented in male populations. Our objective was to identify and summarize the current knowledge related to osteoporotic medication adherence, the potential implications of non-adherence to the medication, and the cost of osteoporosis-related fractures and health-resource utilization in men.

METHODS

Two separate systematic searches were conducted concurrently: one to identify literature reporting male-specific adherence to anti-osteoporotic medication and the clinical consequence of non-adherence in men, and the other to identify literature reporting the cost and resource burden of osteoporosis-related fractures in men. The PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were searched using a date range of 1 January 1998 to 30 June 2012, and citations were screened based on pre-defined criteria.

RESULTS

The percentage of males adherent to bisphosphonates [medication possession ratio (MPR) >0.8] over a 1-year period ranged from 32% to 64%. The data imply worse clinical outcomes with treatment non-adherence. Costs and resource use associated with osteoporosis-related fractures in men are high, with hip fractures generating the most cost.

CONCLUSIONS

One-third to two-thirds of men are not adherent to bisphosphonates. Non-adherence is associated with increased fracture risk. Estimates of direct and indirect osteoporosis-related fracture costs are also substantial in men, and may even be more costly than in women. More robust data would better inform disease management initiatives that could improve adherence to medication and outcomes in men with osteoporosis.

Recent advances: osteoporosis in the "oldest old"

Osteoporosis and related fractures disproportionately impact patients with advanced age, those with the frailty phenotype, and those with multiple comorbidities. Recent studies report a changing incidence in fracture type among the oldest old throughout the world, a finding not satisfactorily explained by advances in treatment of lifestyle factors. A growing recognition of the importance of muscle and bone interaction is leading to improved understanding of the underlying biochemical pathways linking them and new therapeutic targets. New models of care for frail older populations, particularly after hip fracture, are being developed but have been challenged to identify appropriate outcomes to target. An appreciation for the relationship between age-related comorbidities, fracture risk, and competing mortality risk is essential for practitioners caring for the oldest-old population.

Appropriateness of referrals to a tertiary referral centre for bone mineral density testing

INTRODUCTION

Evidence-based guidelines for who should have a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan are well established. Much attention has been appropriately focussed on increasing the proportion of persons at high risk for fracture who are being referred for such investigation. Little literature exists on the extent of inappropriate referrals for DXA. In this cross-sectional study we assessed the prevalence of inappropriate referrals for DXA studies at our centre using modified International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) guidelines.

METHODS

All DXA referrals were vetted for appropriateness and priority using established ISCD criteria. We evaluated the reasons for DXA referral on all subjects and studied the prevalence of missing information, and the number of referrals for DXA deemed to be inappropriate at our institution.

RESULTS

Two thousand and twenty-five DXA referrals were reviewed. Information was missing on many requests (e.g., menopausal status, body mass index), and 33 % of the referrals were deemed as inappropriate. Compared to those deemed appropriate, inappropriate referrals were more likely to be younger females, had no risk factors for osteoporosis, had an inappropriate referral reason, and had less/missing information.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study we have noted a concerning number of DXA referrals with limited information or no appropriate indication for such an examination. Education of referring physicians should focus on not only improving referrals for subjects at high risk, but also inappropriate referrals for subjects at low risk.

Heart failure as a risk factor for osteoporosis and fractures

Although heart failure (HF) and osteoporosis are common diseases, particularly in elderly populations, patients with HF have an increased risk for osteoporosis. The relationship of HF with osteoporosis is modified by gender and the severity of HF. In addition, shared risk factors, medication use, and common pathogenic mechanisms affect both HF and osteoporosis. Shared risk factors for these 2 conditions include advanced age, hypovitaminosis D, renal disease, and diabetes mellitus. Medications used to treat HF, including spironolactone, thiazide diuretics, nitric oxide donors, and aspirin, may protect against osteoporosis. In contrast, loop diuretics may make osteoporosis worse. HF and osteoporosis appear to share common pathogenic mechanisms, including activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, increased parathyroid hormone levels, and/or oxidative/nitrosative stress. HF is a major risk factor for mortality following fractures. Thus, in HF patients, it is important to carefully assess osteoporosis and take measures to reduce the risk of osteoporotic fractures.

Falls and fractures in the elderly with sinus node disease: the impact of pacemaker implantation

Background. Falls and fractures in the elderly are among the leading causes of disability. We investigated whether pacemaker implantation prevents falls in patients with SND in a large cohort of patients. Methods. Patient demographics and medical history were collected prospectively. Fall history was retrospectively reconstituted from available medical records. The 10-year probability for major osteoporotic fractures was calculated retrospectively from available medical records using the Swiss fracture risk assessment tool FRAX-Switzerland. Results. During a mean observation period of 2.3 years after implantation, the rates of fallers and injured fallers with fracture were reduced to 15% and 6%, respectively. This corresponds to a relative reduction in the number of fallers of 75% (P < 0.001) and of injured fallers of 63% (P = 0.014) after pacemaker implantation. Similarly, the number of falls was reduced from 60 (48%) before pacemaker implantation to 22 (18%) thereafter (relative reduction 63%, P = 0.035) and the number of falls with injury from 22 (18%) to 7 (6%), which corresponds to a relative reduction of 67%, P = 0.013. Conclusion. In patients with SND, pacemaker implantation significantly reduces the number of patients experiencing falls, the total number of falls, and the risk for osteoporotic fractures.

Population aging and hospitalization for chronic disease in Germany

BACKGROUND

The population of Germany is aging, i.e., the elderly currently make up an increasing percentage of the population from year to year. Furthermore, many common chronic diseases mainly affect the elderly. For these two reasons, the overall cost of health care in Germany is expected to increase. We studied the effect that population aging has had on the number of hospitalizations for major types of chronic disease in Germany since the year 2000.

METHODS

This study is based on nationwide hospitalization statistics, classified by diagnosis, that were published by the German Federal Statistical Office. We analyzed data for three classes of diagnoses--malignant neoplasia, cardiovascular diseases, and diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue--which were further broken down into nine diagnostic subgroups. Changes in inpatient case numbers might be due either to population aging or to changing rates of hospitalization for individual diagnoses. We used index decomposition analysis to determine the relative influence of these two factors on changing case numbers.

RESULTS

The author found that the aging of the population increased the number of hospitalizations for all of the diagnoses studied. This was particularly evident with respect to the large birth cohorts born in the 1920s (with the diagnosis of congestive heart failure) and in the period 1934-1944 (with the diagnoses ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and osteoarthritis). On the other hand, changing rates of hospitalization for individual diagnoses increased the number of hospitalizations for some diagnoses (congestive heart failure, diseases of the spine and back) and decreased it for others (ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, colorectal cancer, breast cancer).

CONCLUSION

The aging of the population and the changing rates of hospitalization for various diagnoses are exerting separate effects on the number of hospitalizations for chronic diseases in Germany. Predictions of hospital case numbers in the future must take both factors into account.