Predicting postoperative mortality in patients undergoing colorectal surgery

Estimating postoperative mortality in colorectal surgery- a systematic review of risk prediction models

PURPOSE

Risk prediction models are frequently used to support decision-making in colorectal surgery but can be inaccurate. Machine learning (ML) is becoming increasingly popular, and its application may increase predictive accuracy. We compared conventional risk prediction models for postoperative mortality (based on regression analysis) with ML models to determine the benefit of the latter approach.

METHODS

The study was registered in PROSPERO(CRD42022364753). Following the PRISMA guidelines, a systematic search of three databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, WoS) was conducted (from 1/1/2000 to 29/09/2022). Studies were included if they reported the development of a risk model to estimate short-term postoperative mortality for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Discrimination and calibration performance metrics were compared. Studies were evaluated against CHARMS and TRIPOD criteria.

RESULTS

3,052 articles were screened, and 45 studies were included. The total sample size was 1,356,058 patients. Six studies used ML techniques for model development. Most studies (n = 42) reported the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) as a measure of discrimination. There was no significant difference in the mean AUROC values between regression models (0.833 s.d. ± 0.52) and ML (0.846 s.d. ± 0.55), p = 0.539. Calibration statistics, which measure the agreement between predicted estimates and observed outcomes, were less consistent. Risk of bias assessment found most concerns in the data handling and analysis domains of eligible studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed comparable predictive performance between regression and ML methods in colorectal surgery. Integration of ML in colorectal risk prediction is promising but further refinement of the models is required to support routine clinical adoption.

Risk factors and prognoses of invasive Candida infection in surgical critical ill patients with perforated peptic ulcer

BACKGROUND

The risk of invasive Candida infection (ICI) is high in patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) who received laparotomy or laparoscopic surgery, but the risk factors and predictors of morbidity outcomes remain uncertain. This study aims to identify the risk factors of ICI in surgical critically ill PPU patients and to evaluate the impact on patient's outcomes.

METHODS

This is a single-center, retrospective study, with a total of 170 surgical critically ill PPU patients. Thirty-seven patients were ICI present and 133 were ICI absent subjects. The differences in pulmonary complications according to invasive candidiasis were determined by the Mann-Whitney U test. Evaluation of predictors contributing to ICI and 90-day mortality was conducted by using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Candida albicans was the primary pathogen of ICI (74.29%). The infected patients had higher incidence of bacteremia (p < 0.001), longer intensive care unit (p < 0.001) and hospital (p < 0.001) stay, longer ventilator duration (p < 0.001) and increased hospital mortality (p = 0.02). In the multivariate analysis, serum lactate level measured at hospital admission was independently associated with the occurrence of ICI (p = 0.03). Liver cirrhosis (p = 0.03) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (p = 0.007) were independently associated with the 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood lactate level measured at hospital admission could be a predictor of ICI and the surgical critically ill PPU patients with liver cirrhosis and higher SOFA score are associated with poor outcomes.

Mortality calculator as a possible prognostic predictor of overall survival after gastrectomy in elderly patients with gastric cancer

Background

The number of elderly patients with gastric cancer has been increasing. Most elderly patients have associated reduced physiologic functions that can sometimes become an obstacle to safe surgical treatment. The National Clinical Database Risk Calculator, which based on a large Japanese surgical database, provides predicted mortality and morbidity in each case as the surgical-related risks. The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of the risk for operative mortality (NRC-mortality), as calculated by the National Clinical Database Risk Calculator, during long-term follow-up after gastrectomy for elderly patients with gastric cancer.

Methods

We enrolled 73 patients aged ≥ 80 years and underwent gastrectomy at our institution. Their surgical risk was evaluated based on the NRC-mortality. Several clinicopathologic factors, including NRC-mortality, were selected and analyzed as the possible prognostic factors for elderly patients who have undergone gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Statistical analysis was performed using the log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

NRC-mortality ranged from 0.5 to 10.6%, and the median value was 1.7%. Dividing the patients according to mortality, the overall survival was significantly worse in the high mortality group (≥ 1.7%, n = 38) than in the low mortality group (< 1.7%, n = 35), whereas disease-specific survival was not different between the two groups. In the Cox proportional hazard model, multivariate analysis revealed NRC-mortality, performance status, and surgical procedure as the independent prognostic factors for overall survival. For disease-specific survival, the independent prognostic factors were performance status and pathological stage but not NRC-mortality.

Conclusion

The NRC-mortality might be clinically useful for predicting both surgical mortality and overall survival after gastrectomy in elderly patients with gastric cancer.

Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) in Predicting Postoperative Mortality of Patients Undergoing Colorectal Surgery

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was previously shown to predict perioperative mortality in patients with cirrhosis undergoing a variety of nontransplant surgical procedures. We sought to determine its usefulness in predicting postoperative mortality in patients undergoing colorectal procedures. National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data were gathered for adult patients undergoing elective and emergent colorectal procedures (Current Procedural Terminology codes 44005 through 45563 excluding appendectomy) during 2005 and 2006 at participating centers. The preoperative MELD score was calculated for all patients and assessed using logistic regression modeling. A total of 10,033 patients met study inclusion criteria. Overall 30-day mortality was 6.6 per cent. In all patients undergoing colorectal surgery, MELD was anindependent predictor of mortality (2.95 [2.27 to 3.84]). Other independent predictors included age, functional status, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, ascites, esophageal varices, disseminated cancer, chronic steroid use, cardiac disease, renal failure, malnutrition, sepsis, emergency, and ventilator dependence. The MELD score is an independent predictor of mortality in patients undergoing colorectal procedures. These data can be used to assign risk and assist in clinical decision-making.

Risk prediction models for postoperative outcomes of colorectal cancer surgery in the older population - a systematic review

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of patients with Colorectal Cancer (CRC) is 65 years or older. We aimed to systematically review existing clinical prediction models for postoperative outcomes of CRC surgery, study their performance in older patients and assess their potential for preoperative decision making.

METHODS

A systematic search in Pubmed and Embase for original studies of clinical prediction models for outcomes of CRC surgery. Bias and relevance for preoperative decision making with older patients were assessed using the CHARMS guidelines.

RESULTS

26 prediction models from 25 publications were included. The average age of included patients ranged from 61 to 76. Two models were exclusively developed for 65 and older. Common outcomes were mortality (n = 10), anastomotic leakage (n = 7) and surgical site infections (n = 3). No prediction models for quality of life or physical functioning were identified. Age, gender and ASA score were common predictors; 12 studies included intraoperative predictors. For the majority of the models, bias for model development and performance was considered moderate to high.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models are available that address mortality and surgical complications after CRC surgery. Most models suffer from methodological limitations, and their performance for older patients is uncertain. Models that contain intraoperative predictors are of limited use for preoperative decision making. Future research should address the predictive value of geriatric characteristics to improve the performance of prediction models for older patients.

Impact of preoperative risk factors on outcome after gastrectomy

Background

Gastrectomy is associated with relevant postoperative morbidity. However, outcome of surgery can be improved by careful selection of patients. The objective of the current study was therefore to identify preoperative risk factors that might impact on patients’ further outcome after surgical resection.

Methods

Preoperative risk factors having respectively different surgical risk scores for major complex surgery (including Cologne Risk Score, p-/o-POSSUM, and NSQIP risk score) of patients that underwent gastrectomy for AEG II/III tumors and gastric cancer were correlated with complications according to Clavien-Dindo and outcome. Patients who underwent surgery in palliative intention were excluded from further analysis.

Results

Subtotal gastrectomy was performed in 23%, gastrectomy in 59%, and extended gastrectomy in 18% in a total of 139 patients (mean age: 64 years old). Thirty six percent experienced a minor complication (Dindo I-II) and 24% a major complication (Dindo III-V), which resulted in a prolonged hospital stay (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality (=Dindo V) was 2.5%. Besides age, type of surgical procedure impacted on complications with extended gastrectomy showing the highest risk (p = 0.005). The o-POSSUM score failed to predict mortality accurately. We observed a highly positive correlation between predicted morbidity respectively mortality and occurrence of complications estimated by p-POSSUM (p = 0.005), Cologne Risk (p = 0.007), and NSQIP scores (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The results demonstrate a significant association between different risk scores and occurrence of complications following gastrectomy. The p-POSSUM, Cologne Risk, and NSQIP score exhibited superior performance than the o-POSSUM score. Therefore, these scores might allow identification and selection of high-risk patients and thus might be highly useful for clinical decision making.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Underestimates Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with Ascites Undergoing Colectomy

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and ascites correlate with surgical morbidity and mortality. However, the MELD score does not account for ascites. We sought to evaluate whether the MELD score accurately risk stratifies patients with ascites.

METHODS

We analyzed the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2005-2014) to examine the risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality of cirrhotic patients with and without ascites undergoing colectomy for diverticulitis. Patients were stratified by MELD score, and the presence of ascites and outcomes were compared between patients with and without ascites to the reference group of low MELD and no ascites. Multivariable logistic regression was used to control for demographic factors and comorbidities.

RESULTS

A total of 16,877 colectomies were analyzed. For each MELD stratum, patients with ascites have increased risk of complications compared to those without ascites (P < 0.05 unless indicated): low MELD ascites OR 1.13, P = 0.69, moderate MELD no ascites OR 1.37, moderate MELD ascites OR 2.06, high MELD no ascites OR 1.93, and high MELD ascites OR 3.54. These trends hold true for mortality: low MELD ascites OR 2.91, P = 0.063, moderate MELD no ascites OR 1.47, moderate MELD ascites OR 5.62, high MELD no ascites OR 3.04, and high MELD ascites OR 9.91.

CONCLUSION

Ascites predicts an increased risk for postoperative morbidity and mortality for cirrhotic patients undergoing colectomy for all MELD classifications. These findings suggest that the MELD score significantly underestimates postoperative risk as it does not account for ascites.

The impact of prehabilitation on post-surgical complications in patients undergoing non-urgent cardiovascular surgical intervention: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Cardiac surgery is an aggressive procedure, inducing a great level of stress and disturbance to the homeostasis of the organism and underlying several postoperative complications. Surgical prehabilitation comprises pre-operative physical conditioning designed to improve the physiological and functional capacities of the individual, prepare the organism for surgical stress and reduce the risk of postoperative morbidity.

Aim

This systematic review and meta-analysis is aimed at evaluating the ability of prehabilitation to prevent post-surgical complications in cardiac patients.

Methods

We selected studies conducted among patients who were waiting for non-urgent cardiac surgical procedures, where a comparison between prehabilitation and standard treatment was made. A total of 3650 possible studies were researched, of which eight were selected for inclusion.

Results

A reduction in the number of complications in the groups submitted to prehabilitation (odds ratio = 0.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28–0.62; p < 0.001; I2 = 0%) was observed, as well as a significant increase in maximal inspiratory pressure (standard mean difference (SMD) = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.35–0.96; p < 0.001; I2 = 58%), a non-significant decrease in the length of stay (SMD = –0.56; 95% CI: −1.13, 0.01; p = 0.05; I2 = 93%), a non-significant increase in the distance walked by the intervention group in the six-minute walk test (SMD = 0.89; 95% CI −0.06, 1.84; p = 0.07) and a lack of effect on mechanical ventilation time (SMD = −0.03; 95% CI: −0.22, 0.16; p = 0.75; I2 = 0%).

Conclusion

Prehabilitation reduces the number of post-surgical complications and increases maximal inspiratory pressure; a reduction in the length of stay and an improvement of functional capacities are also probable.

Enhanced recovery program versus traditional care after hepatectomy: A meta-analysis

To assess the safety and efficacy of enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) as compared with the traditional care in patients undergoing liver surgery and optimization of enhanced recovery programs.Literature, until August 2016, was searched to identify the comparative studies evaluating preoperative hospital stay time, complications, and C-reactive protein (CRP). Pooled odds ratios (OR) or weighted mean differences (WMDs) were calculated with either the fixed or random effect model.These studies included a total of 524 patients: 254 treated with ERAS and 270 with traditional care. The postoperative recovery time and length of hospital stay were significantly better than the control group (WMD -2.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] -3.86 to -1.57; WMD -2.67; 95% CI -3.68 to -1.65, respectively). The overall complications, grade I, and Grand II-V complications were significantly favorable to the ERAS group (OR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.30-0.67]; OR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.31-0.98]; OR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.32-0.76], respectively). The concentration of CRP in the control group was significantly higher than that in the ERAS group on postoperative day 5 (WMD -21.68; 95% CI -29.30 to -14.05). Time to first flatus (WMD -0.93; 95% CI -1.41 to -0.46) was significantly shortened in the ERAS group.The evidence indicates that ERAS following liver surgery is safe, effective, and feasible. Therefore, further are essential for optimizing the ERAS protocols.

Predictors of Morbidity and Mortality After Surgery for Intestinal Perforation

Purpose

An intestinal perforation is a rare condition, but has a high mortality rate, even after immediate surgical intervention. The clinical predictors of postoperative morbidity and mortality are still not well established, so this study attempted to identify risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality after surgery for an intestinal perforation.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the cases of 117 patients who underwent surgery for an intestinal perforation at a single institution in Korea from November 2008 to June 2014. Factors related with postoperative mortality at 1 month and other postoperative complications were investigated.

Results

The mean age of enrolled patients was 66.0 ± 15.8 years and 66% of the patients were male. Fifteen patients (13%) died within 1 month after surgical treatment. Univariate analysis indicated that patient-related factors associated with mortality were low systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low serum albumin, low serum protein, low total cholesterol, and high blood urea nitrogen; the surgery-related factor associated with mortality was feculent ascites. Multivariate analysis using a logistic regression indicated that low systolic blood pressure and feculent ascites independently increased the risk for mortality; postoperative complications were more likely in both females and those with low estimated glomerular filtration rates and elevated serum C-reactive protein levels.

Conclusion

Various factors were associated with postoperative clinical outcomes of patients with an intestinal perforation. Morbidity and mortality following an intestinal perforation were greater in patients with unstable initial vital signs, poor nutritional status, and feculent ascites.

Does Stenting as a Bridge to Surgery in Left-Sided Colorectal Cancer Obstruction Really Worsen Oncological Outcomes?

BACKGROUND

Although self-expandable metal stents are used as a bridge to surgery in patients with colorectal cancer obstruction, their long-term oncological outcomes are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate long-term oncological outcomes of self-expandable metal stents as a bridge to surgery (stent group) compared with direct surgery (direct operation group) in patients with left-sided colorectal cancer obstruction.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective chart review.

SETTINGS

This study was conducted at a single tertiary academic center.

PATIENTS

Of 113 patients who underwent curative surgery for left-sided colorectal cancer obstruction at Asan Medical Center between 2005 and 2011, 42 underwent direct surgery and 71 underwent self-expandable metal stent insertion followed by elective surgery. After 1:1 propensity-score matching, 42 patients were enrolled in both groups, and their postsurgical outcomes were compared.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes of this study were long-term oncological outcomes, including overall survival and recurrence-free survival of patients in both groups.

RESULTS

Three- and 5-year overall survival rates were similar in the stent (87.0% and 71.0%) and direct operation (76.4% and 76.4%) groups (p = 0.931). Three- and 5-year recurrence-free survival rates were also similar in the stent (91.9% and 66.4%) and direct operation (81.2% and 71.2%) groups (p = 0.581), as were postsurgical complication rates (9.5% and 16.7%; p = 0.344). No patient in either group experienced a permanent stoma.

LIMITATIONS

This study was limited by its small patient numbers and retrospective nature.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term oncological outcomes of self-expandable metal stents as a bridge to surgery may not be inferior to those of direct surgery for left-sided colorectal cancer obstruction.

Outcomes of abdominal surgery in patients receiving mechanical ventilation for more than 48 hours

BACKGROUND

Abdominal surgery in critically ill patients has high mortality, contributing to high US healthcare costs. This study sought to identify specific predictors of mortality in this population.

METHODS

Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database 2006 to 2012, we identified 4,901 patients who were intubated for more than 48 hours before undergoing common abdominal procedures. Mortality and predictors of mortality were determined using chi-square and/or regression analysis.

RESULTS

Overall 30-day mortality was 44.2% with increasing mortality for additional procedures performed. Ventilated patients with the following preoperative risk factors were 2 to 3 times as likely to die within 30 days of surgery: age greater than 65-years old, coma, preoperative international normalized ratio greater than 3.0, esophageal varices, and disseminated cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality is significant in ventilated patients who undergo abdominal surgery and is especially high with advanced age, disseminated cancer, and complications of liver disease. Physicians should carefully discuss this with patients and/or family and consider palliative options when appropriate.

What happens when we do not operate? Survival following conservative bowel cancer management

Introduction While surgery is the cornerstone of bowel cancer treatment, it comes with significant risks. Among patients aged over 80 years, 30-day mortality is 13%-15%, and additionally 12% will not return home and go on to live in supportive care. The question for patients and clinicians is whether operative surgery benefits elderly, frail patients. Methods Multidisciplinary team outcomes between October 2010 and April 2012 were searched to conduct a retrospective analysis of patients with known localised colorectal cancer who did not undergo surgery due to being deemed unfit. Results Twenty six patients survived for more than a few weeks following surgery, of whom 20% survived for at least 36 months. The average life expectancy following diagnosis was 1 year and 176 days, with a mean age at diagnosis of 87 years (range 77-93 years). One patient survived for 3 years and 240 days after diagnosis. Conclusions Although surgeons are naturally focused on surgical outcomes, non-operative outcomes are equally as important for patients. Elderly, frail patients benefit less from surgery for bowel cancer and have higher risks than younger cohorts, and this needs to be carefully discussed when jointly making the decision whether or not to operate.

Assessment of the Addition of Hypoalbuminemia to ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Colorectal Cancer

The aim of this study was to evaluate the benefit of adding hypoalbuminemia to the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator when predicting postoperative outcomes in colorectal cancer patients.The ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator offers qualified risk evaluation in surgical decision-making and informed patient consent. To date, malnutrition defined as hypoalbuminemia, an important independent surgical risk factor in colorectal cancer, is not included.This is a retrospective, multi-institutional study of ACS-NSQIP patients (n = 18,532) who received colorectal surgery from 2009 to 2012. Models were constructed for predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity using the risk factors of the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator before and after adding hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor. The 2 models' performance was then compared using c-statistics and Brier scores. The ACS-NSQIP database in 2008 was used for validation of the created models.The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (27.8%) is higher in colorectal cancer, when compared with other most common cancers. In univariate analyses, hypoalbuminemia was significantly associated with postoperative mortality and morbidity in colorectal cancer patients. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, 15 postoperative complications, including mortality and serious morbidities, were significantly predicted by hypoalbuminemia. Most of the models with hypoalbuminemia showed better performance and validation in predicting postoperative complications than those without hypoalbuminemia.In colorectal cancer, hypoalbuminemia, with levels below 3.5 g/dL, serves as an excellent assessment tool and preoperative predictor of postoperative outcomes. When combined with hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor, the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator offers more accurate information and estimation of surgical risks to patients and surgeons when choosing treatment options.

Laparoscopic extended right colectomy versus laparoscopic left colectomy for carcinoma of the splenic flexure: a matched case-control study

PURPOSE

The aim of the study was to compare the short- and long-term outcomes of laparoscopic extended right colectomy (ER) versus laparoscopic left colectomy (LC) for splenic flexure carcinomas.

METHODS

Patients with stage 0-III adenocarcinoma of the splenic flexure who underwent laparoscopy between 2000 and 2013 were identified from a prospectively maintained database. Twenty-seven patients who underwent ER were matched by age, gender, BMI, ASA score, and tumor stage with 27 patients who underwent LC.

RESULTS

The ER procedures were significantly longer than LC (235 ± 49.2 min vs. 192 ± 43.4 min, p = 0.001, respectively). Post-operatively, time to flatus and return to regular diet were observed to average 2.4 ± 0.8 days (1-4 days) and 4.6 ± 1.05 days (3-8 days), respectively, without differences between the groups. Overall, 14 complications were observed in 12 patients and 90-day mortality was nil. The length of hospitality stay was not different between ER and LC, with an overall mean of 8.3 ± 2.7 days. All procedures were classified as R0 resections, but ER was associated with a higher number of lymph nodes retrieved (21.4 ± 4.9) compared with LC (16.6 ± 5.5, p = 0.001). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative survival rates were 92.6, 85.8, and 72.8% for the ER group and 96.3, 91.9, and 75.1% for the LC group (p = 0.851). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year disease-free survival rates were 85.2, 76.7, and 67.1% for the ER group and 96.2, 75.5, and 66.7% for the LC group (p = 0.636).

CONCLUSIONS

Laparoscopic ER and LC procedures performed for splenic flexure carcinomas appear to have similar short- and long-term oncologic outcomes.

Evaluation of the POSSUM, p-POSSUM, o-POSSUM, and APACHE II scoring systems in predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity in gastric cancer patients

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Gastric cancer is the fourth most prevalent cancer worldwide. The ability to accurately predict surgery-related morbidity and mortality is critical in deciding both the timing of surgery and choice of surgical procedure. The aim of this study is to compare the POSSUM, p-POSSUM, o-POSSUM, and APACHE II scoring systems for predicting surgical morbidity and mortality in Chinese gastric cancer patients, as well as to create new scoring systems to achieve better prediction.

METHODS

Data from 612 gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy between January 2007 and December 2011 were included in this study. The predictive abilities of the four scoring systems were compared by examining observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios, the receiver operating characteristic curve, Student t test, and χ² test results.

RESULTS

The observed complication rate of 34% (n = 208) did not differ significantly from the rate of 36.6% (n = 208) predicted by the POSSUM scoring system (O/E ratio = 0.93). The observed mortality rate was 2.9% (n = 18). For predicting mortality, POSSUM had an O/E ratio of 0.34 as compared with p-POSSUM (O/E ratio = 0.91), o-POSSUM (O/E ratio = 1.26), and APACHE II (O/E ratio = 0.28).

CONCLUSION

The POSSUM scoring system performed well with respect to predicting morbidity risk following gastric cancer resection. For predicting postoperative mortality, p-POSSUM and o-POSSUM exhibited superior performance relative to POSSUM and APACHE II.

Colorectal preOperative Surgical Score (CrOSS) for mortality in major colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND

Colorectal surgery carries a significant mortality risk, with reported rates of 1-6% for elective surgery and up to 22% in the emergency setting. Both clinicians and patients will benefit from being able to predict the likelihood of death before surgery. Recently, we have described and validated two risk stratification models for colorectal surgery, the Barwon Health 2012 and Association Française de Chirurgie models. However, these models are not suitable for assessment at patient's bedside. The purpose of this study is to develop a simplified preoperative model capable of predicting mortality following colorectal surgery.

METHODS

The new model is termed Colorectal preOperative Surgical Score (CrOSS). The development and internal validation of CrOSS was performed using a prospectively maintained colorectal database. External validation was performed using retrospective data. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in model development. Calibration and discrimination were used for model validation.

RESULTS

There were 474 and 389 consecutive colorectal surgeries at Geelong Hospital and Western Hospital. Overall mortality rates were 5.16% and 1.03%, respectively. Significant predictors for mortality were as follows: age ≥70, urgent operation, albumin ≤30 g/L and congestive heart failure (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) = 0.870, calibration P-value = 0.937). The predicted risk of mortality was stratified according to the risk profile of 0.39-66.51%. When validated externally, CrOSS predicted mortality accurately (ROC = 0.847, calibration P-value = 0.199).

CONCLUSIONS

A robust and simple preoperative model has been created to risk-stratify patients for colorectal surgery. This was successfully validated at another tertiary hospital.

Interest of preoperative immunonutrition in liver resection for cancer: study protocol of the PROPILS trial, a multicenter randomized controlled phase IV trial

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition is an independent risk factor of postoperative morbidity and mortality and it's observed in 20 to 50% of surgical patients. Preoperative interventions to optimize the nutritional status, reduce postoperative complications and enteral nutrition has proven to be superior to the parenteral one. Moreover, regardless of the nutritional status of the patient, surgery impairs the immunological response, thus increasing the risk of postoperative sepsis. Immunonutrition has been developed to improve the immunometabolic host response in perioperative period and it has been proven to reduce significantly postoperative infectious complications and length of hospital stay in patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery for tumors. We hypothesize that a preoperative oral immunonutrition (ORAL IMPACT®) can reduce postoperative morbidity in liver resection for cancer.

METHODS/DESIGN

Prospective multicenter randomized placebo-controlled double-blind phase IV trial with two parallel treatment groups receiving either study product (ORAL IMPACT®) or control supplement (isocaloric isonitrogenous supplement--IMPACT CONTROL®) for 7 days before liver resection for cancer. A total of 400 patients will be enrolled. Patients will be stratified according to the type of hepatectomy, the presence of chronic liver disease and the investigator center. The main end-point is to evaluate in intention-to-treat analysis the overall 30-day morbidity. Secondary end-points are to assess the 30-day infectious and non-infectious morbidity, length of antibiotic treatment and hospital stay, modifications on total food intake, compliance to treatment, side-effects of immunonutrition, impact on liver regeneration and sarcopenia, and to perform a medico-economic analysis.

DISCUSSION

The overall morbidity rate after liver resection is 22% to 42%. Infectious post-operative complications (12% to 23%) increase the length of hospital stay and costs and are responsible for a quarter of 30-day mortality. Various methods have been advocated to decrease the rate of postoperative complications but there is no evidence to support or refute the use of any treatment and further trials are required. The effects of preoperative oral immunonutrition in non-cirrhotic patients undergoing liver resection for cancer are unknown. The present trial is designed to evaluate whether the administration of a short-term preoperative oral immunonutrition can reduce postoperative morbidity in non-cirrhotic patients undergoing liver resection for cancer.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrial.gov: NCT02041871.

Predicting postoperative mortality after colorectal surgery: a novel clinical model

AIM

The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a clinically, practical and discriminative prediction model designed to estimate in-hospital mortality of patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

METHOD

All consecutive patients who underwent elective or emergency colorectal surgery from 1990 to 2005, at the Zaandam Medical Centre, The Netherlands, were included in this study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) linking the explanatory variables to the outcome variable in-hospital mortality, and a simplified Identification of Risk in Colorectal Surgery (IRCS) score was constructed. The model was validated in a population of patients who underwent colorectal surgery from 2005 to 2011 in Barcelona, Spain. Predictive performance was estimated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The strongest predictors of in-hospital mortality were emergency surgery (OR = 6.7, 95% CI 4.7-9.5), tumour stage (OR = 3.2, 95% CI 2.8-4.6), age (OR = 13.1, 95% CI 6.6-26.0), pulmonary failure (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 3.3-7.1) and cardiac failure (OR = 3.7, 95% CI 2.6-5.3). These parameters were included in the prediction model and simplified scoring system. The IRCS model predicted in-hospital mortality and demonstrated a predictive performance of 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87) in the validation population. In this population the predictive performance of the CR-POSSUM score was 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study have shown that the IRCS score is a good predictor of in-hospital mortality after colorectal surgery despite the relatively low number of model parameters.

Clinicopathological characteristics and long-term outcomes of colorectal cancer in elderly Chinese patients undergoing potentially curative surgery

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to determine the clinicopathological characteristics and outcomes of Chinese colorectal cancer (CRC) patients aged 75 years and older undergoing potentially curative surgery.

METHODS

A total of 2,482 CRC patients at TNM stage I-III undergoing surgical treatment between 1995 and 2005 were evaluated, and patients were divided into a younger (<75 years old) and an elderly (≥75 years) group.

RESULTS

There were 2,482 CRC patients in this study, of which 2,194 (88.4 %) patients were in the younger group (mean age 57 years) and 288 (11.6 %) were in the elderly group (mean age 79 years). Significant differences were observed between the two groups with regard to the American Society of Anesthesiologists' score, tumor location, co-morbidities, emergency procedures, use of chemotherapy, proportion admitted to the ICU, length of ICU stay, causes of death, T/N stage and postoperative recurrence. The postoperative mortality increased from 4.8 % in the younger group to 8.3 % in the older group (p = 0.011). Although significant differences were found in the overall 5-year survival (73 vs. 56 %, p < 0.0001) and disease-free 5-year survival (68 vs. 54 %, p < 0.0001) between the two groups, the cancer-specific 5-year survival was similar (88 vs. 85 %, p = 0.089) in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although elderly CRC patients have unique clinicopathological features, a higher postoperative mortality and a worse overall and disease-free survival compared with younger patients, the cancer-specific survival at five years is similar between elderly and younger patients. Elderly patients benefit from radical surgery and have a good postoperative oncological outcome, irrespective of their age.

Preoperative body size and composition, habitual diet, and post-operative complications in elective colorectal cancer patients in Norway

BACKGROUND

Both malnutrition and obesity are related to worsened post-operative outcomes after colorectal surgery. Obese cancer patients may be malnourished as a result of short-term weight loss. The present study aimed to evaluate preoperative nutritional status, body composition and dietary intake related to post-operative complications (POC) and post-operative hospital days (POHD) in elective colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.

METHODS

Anthropometry, body composition measured by bioelectric spectroscopy and dietary habits assessed by a validated food-frequency questionnaire were examined in 100 newly-diagnosed CRC patients. Data from 30-day POC and POHD were collected from medical records. Nonparametric and chi-squared tests and logistic regression were used to analyse associations between body and dietary variables and post-operative outcome.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine patients had at least one POC. The median POHD was six. Body size and composition measures and short-term weight loss were no different between patients with and without POC, or between patients with POHD <7 and ≥7. Dietary variables were otherwise no different between patients with and without POC, although the median intake of marine n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA, the sum of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids) was significantly lower in patients with versus without POC (0.7 versus 1.2 g day(-1) , P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that preoperative body size, body composition and short-term weight loss were not related to 30-day post-operative outcomes in CRC patients. A high content of marine n-3 PUFA in preoperative habitual diets may protect against POC after CRC surgery.

Clinical and economic impact of malnutrition per se on the postoperative course of colorectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

To assess the medico-economic impact of malnutrition in patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We performed post-hoc analyses of data from the Alves et al. prospective study. Using standard criteria of malnutrition, 2 groups were created a posteriori: Well-nourished (WN) and Mal-nourished (MN) patients. The 2 groups were statistically adjusted for age, cancer status, and scheduled surgery. Individual costs were valued using the French National Cost Study. Postoperative morbidity, mortality, hospital length-of-stay (LOS), and discharge setting were compared. We defined 3 scenarios, the most accurate estimate and its upper and lower limits, to assess the economic impact of malnutrition.

RESULTS

453 patients were included in the analyses. Complication and mortality rates were not significantly different between the 2 groups. MN patients had a mean LOS 3.41 days significantly longer than WN patients (p = 0.017). In MN patients, the cost of hospital stay was increased by around 3360 €, creating an annual impact of 10,159,436 € for French non-profit hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

Malnutrition in colorectal cancer surgical patients is associated with an increased LOS resulting in significant budget impact. Further studies are needed to investigate this impact and the related cost-benefit of perioperative specialized nutritional support and implementation of the ERAS protocol in this homogeneous category of patients.

Predictive value of the POSSUM, p-POSSUM, cr-POSSUM, APACHE II and ACPGBI scoring systems in colorectal cancer resection

This study investigated the ability of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system to predict postoperative morbidity (complication rate) and compared the ability of POSSUM and four other scoring systems (Portsmouth POSSUM [p-POSSUM], colorectal POSSUM [cr-POSSUM], Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland [ACPGBI] and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II]) to predict mortality within 30 days in 1695 patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Student's t-test and the χ(2)-test were used to estimate the predictive ability of these scoring systems. The observed complication rate of 38.7% was not significantly different to the rate of 36.3% predicted by the POSSUM scoring system (observed : expected [O : E] ratio 1.07). The observed mortality rate was 3.0%. For predicting mortality, POSSUM had an O : E ratio of 0.37, compared with p-POSSUM O : E ratio 1.00, cr-POSSUM O : E ratio 0.91, APACHE II O : E ratio 0.31 and ACPGBI O : E ratio 1.41. It was concluded that the POSSUM scoring system had high value for predicting the risk of morbidity following colorectal cancer resection. For predicting postoperative mortality, p-POSSUM, cr-POSSUM and ACPGBI were superior to POSSUM and APACHE II, however ROC curve analysis showed that cr-POSSUM and ACPGI discriminated best between survivors and non-survivors, so were more accurate predictors of postoperative mortality than the other three scoring systems.

Congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease predict poor surgical outcomes in older adults undergoing elective diverticulitis surgery

BACKGROUND

Diverticulitis is a common medical condition that disproportionately affects older adults. The ideal management of recurrent diverticulitis, including the role of prophylactic colectomy, remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the outcomes among older patients undergoing elective surgery for diverticulitis and examine subgroups of patients with comorbid congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to determine whether outcomes in these patients are worse than in other groups.

DESIGN

This article reports a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing elective surgery for diverticulitis.

SETTING

Data were derived from the 100% Medicare Provider Analysis and Review inpatient files from 2004 to 2007.

PATIENTS

Included were 22,752 patients, age 65 years and older, with a primary diagnosis of diverticulitis that underwent elective left-colon resection, colostomy, or ileostomy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcome measures were intestinal diversion rates (colostomy and ileostomy) and postoperative complications.

RESULTS

Overall mortality, intestinal diversion (colostomy and ileostomy), and postoperative complication rate were 1.2%, 11.3%, and 22.1%. Patients with congestive heart failure had increased odds of in-hospital mortality (OR 3.5, 95% CI 2.59-4.63), colostomy (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.69-2.27), and all postoperative complications, including hemorrhagic (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.01-2.11), wound (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.50-2.39), pulmonary (OR 4.2, 95% CI 3.59-4.85), cardiac (OR 4.6, 95% CI 3.68-5.74), postoperative shock/sepsis (OR 3.2, 95% CI 2.53-4.35), renal (OR 4.1, 95% CI 3.22-5.12), and thromboembolic (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.00-2.43) complications. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had significantly increased odds of wound (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.19-1.67) and pulmonary (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.94-2.50) complications. Advancing age, congestive heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were significantly associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

LIMITATIONS

Medicare data are limited by the potential for lack of generalizability to patients <65 years and the potential for coding errors.

CONCLUSIONS

Elective diverticular surgery in older patients carries substantial morbidity, especially in those patients with comorbid congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The rate of perioperative complications that we document in this patient population may attenuate some of the expected benefit of surgery.

The Procedural Index for Mortality Risk (PIMR): an index calculated using administrative data to quantify the independent influence of procedures on risk of hospital death

BACKGROUND

Surgeries and other procedures can influence the risk of death in hospital. All published scales that predict post-operative death risk require clinical data and cannot be measured using administrative data alone. This study derived and internally validated an index that can be calculated using administrative data to quantify the independent risk of hospital death after a procedure.

METHODS

For all patients admitted to a single academic centre between 2004 and 2009, we estimated the risk of all-cause death using the Kaiser Permanente Inpatient Risk Adjustment Methodology (KP-IRAM). We determined whether each patient underwent one of 503 commonly performed therapeutic procedures using Canadian Classification of Interventions codes and whether each procedure was emergent or elective. Multivariate logistic regression modeling was used to measure the association of each procedure-urgency combination with death in hospital independent of the KP-IRAM risk of death. The final model was modified into a scoring system to quantify the independent influence each procedure had on the risk of death in hospital.

RESULTS

275 460 hospitalizations were included (137,730 derivation, 137,730 validation). In the derivation group, the median expected risk of death was 0.1% (IQR 0.01%-1.4%) with 4013 (2.9%) dying during the hospitalization. 56 distinct procedure-urgency combinations entered our final model resulting in a Procedural Index for Mortality Rating (PIMR) score values ranging from -7 to +11. In the validation group, the PIMR score significantly predicted the risk of death by itself (c-statistic 67.3%, 95% CI 66.6-68.0%) and when added to the KP-IRAM model (c-index improved significantly from 0.929 to 0.938).

CONCLUSIONS

We derived and internally validated an index that uses administrative data to quantify the independent association of a broad range of therapeutic procedures with risk of death in hospital. This scale will improve risk adjustment when administrative data are used for analyses.

Operative outcomes beyond 30-day mortality: colorectal cancer surgery in oldest old

BACKGROUND

Resections for elderly colorectal cancer (CRC) are forecasted to grow, particularly in those beyond the age limit of screening (>80 years). However, literature on operative outcomes after CRC procedures in the oldest old is focused primarily on operative mortality. We hypothesize that older age will additionally impact operative morbidity after CRC resections in a multihospital, risk-adjusted database.

STUDY DESIGN

We identified 19,375 patients >40 years who underwent CRC procedures in the 2005 to 2008 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) database. Pre-, intra-, and postoperative factors were compared by age groups. Multivariable techniques were used to assess the effects of older age on operative outcome measures, adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

Over 20% of our cohort was older than 80 years. Of those, 17% developed major complications and 29% experienced prolonged length of stay (LOS). Older patients also experienced higher rates of 30-day operative mortality (>80 years vs. 45-55 years; 6% vs. <1%), major complications (>80 years vs. 45-55 years; 21% vs. 14%), and prolonged LOS after open (>80 years vs. 45-55 years; 37% vs. 24%) and laparoscopic procedures (>80 years vs. 45-55 years; 40.5% vs. 18%). These unadjusted comparisons persisted in multivariable analyses demonstrating that older age independently predicted worse operative outcomes after CRC procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of older age extend to other important outcome measures after CRC procedures beyond operative mortality. As one of the largest multihospital studies, our study identified increased morbidity in the oldest old, a growing population. Our results should stimulate review of current policy and resource allocation.

The revised ACPGBI model is a simple and accurate predictor of operative mortality after potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) risk-adjustment model for colorectal cancer surgery has been recently revised. The aim of the present study was to compare the performance of the revised ACPGBI model, the original ACPGBI model, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM, in the prediction of operative mortality after resection of colorectal cancer.

METHODS

A total of 423 patients who underwent potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer at a single institution (1997-2007) were included. Data used in the construction of the ACPGBI model was collected prospectively. The models were compared by examining observed to expected (O:E) ratios, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) analysis.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality rate was 4%. The performance of the models was as follows: revised ACPGBI model (O:E ratio = 1.05, AUC = 0.73, H-L = 11.02), original ACPGBI model (O:E ratio = 0.58, AUC = 0.76, H-L = 14.23), P-POSSUM (O:E ratio = 0.87, AUC = 0.79, H-L = 10.63), and CR-POSSUM (O:E ratio = 0.63, AUC = 0.84, H-L = 15.84). In subgroup analysis, the revised ACPGBI model performed well in both elective cases (O:E ratio = 1.06) and emergency cases (O:E ratio = 0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

The revised ACPGBI model is simple to construct and accurately predicts operative mortality after potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer.

Predictive value of POSSUM and ACPGBI scoring in mortality and morbidity of colorectal resection: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Preoperative risk prediction to assess mortality and morbidity may be helpful to surgical decision making. The aim of this study was to compare mortality and morbidity of colorectal resections performed in a tertiary referral center with mortality and morbidity as predicted with physiological and operative score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), and colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM). The second aim of this study was to analyze the accuracy of different POSSUM scores in surgery performed for malignancy, inflammatory bowel diseases, and diverticulitis. POSSUM scoring was also evaluated in colorectal resection in acute vs. elective setting. In procedures performed for malignancy, the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) score was assessed in the same way for comparison.

METHODS

POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM predictor equations for mortality were applied in a retrospective case-control study to 734 patients who had undergone colorectal resection. The total group was assessed first. Second, the predictive value of outcome after surgery was assessed for malignancy (n = 386), inflammatory bowel diseases (n = 113), diverticulitis (n = 91), and other indications, e.g., trauma, endometriosis, volvulus, or ischemia (n = 144). Third, all subgroups were assessed in relation to the setting in which surgery was performed: acute or elective. In patients with malignancy, the ACPGBI score was calculated as well. In all groups, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed.

RESULTS

POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM have a significant predictive value for outcome after colorectal surgery. Within the total population as well as in all four subgroups, there is no difference in the area under the curve between the POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM scores. In the subgroup analysis, smallest areas under the ROC curve are seen in operations performed for malignancy, which is significantly worse than for diverticulitis and in operations performed for other indications. For elective procedures, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM predict outcome significantly worse in patients operated for carcinoma than in patients with diverticulitis. In acute surgical interventions, CR-POSSUM predicts mortality better in diverticulitis than in patients operated for other indications. The ACPGBI score has a larger area under the curve than any of the POSSUM scores. Morbidity as predicted by POSSUM is most accurate in procedures for diverticulitis and worst when the indication is malignancy.

CONCLUSION

The POSSUM scores predict outcome significantly better than can be expected by chance alone. Regarding the indication for surgery, each POSSUM score predicts outcome in patients operated for diverticulitis or other indications more accurately than for malignancy. The ACPGBI score is found to be superior to the various POSSUM scores in patients who have (elective) resection of colorectal malignancy.

A systematic review of POSSUM and its related models as predictors of post-operative mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer

INTRODUCTION

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) model and its Portsmouth (P-POSSUM) and colorectal (CR-POSSUM) modifications are used extensively to predict and audit post-operative mortality and morbidity. This aim of this systematic review was to assess the predictive value of the POSSUM models in colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

Major electronic databases, including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and Pubmed were searched for original studies published between 1991 and 2010. Two independent reviewers assessed each study against inclusion and exclusion criteria. All data was specific to colorectal cancer surgery. Predictive value was assessed by calculating observed to expected (O/E) ratios.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies were included in final review. The mortality analysis included ten studies (4,799 patients) on POSSUM, 17 studies (6,576 patients) on P-POSSUM and 14 studies (5,230 patients) on CR-POSSUM. Weighted O/E ratios for mortality were 0.31 (CI 0.31-0.32) for POSSUM, 0.90 (CI 0.88-0.92) for P-POSSUM and 0.64 (CI 0.63-0.65) for CR-POSSUM. The morbidity analysis included four studies (768 patients) on POSSUM with a weighted O/E ratio of 0.96 (CI 0.94-0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

P-POSSUM was the most accurate model for predicting post-operative mortality after colorectal cancer surgery. The original POSSUM model was accurate in predicting post-operative complications.

Elderly POSSUM, a dedicated score for prediction of mortality and morbidity after major colorectal surgery in older patients

BACKGROUND

Several scores have been developed to evaluate surgical unit mortality and morbidity. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and derivatives use preoperative and intraoperative factors, whereas the Surgical Risk Scale (SRS) and Association Française de Chirurgie (AFC) score use four simple factors. To allow for advanced age in patients undergoing colorectal surgery, a dedicated score-the Elderly (E) POSSUM-has been developed and its accuracy compared with these scores.

METHODS

From 2002 to 2004, 1186 elderly patients, at least 65 years old, undergoing major colorectal surgery in France were enrolled. Accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (discrimination) and calibration.

RESULTS

The mortality and morbidity rates were 9 and 41 per cent respectively. The E-POSSUM had both a good discrimination (AUC = 0.86) and good calibration (P = 0.178) in predicting mortality and a reasonable discrimination (AUC = 0.77) and good calibration (P = 0.166) in predicting morbidity. The E-POSSUM was significantly better at predicting mortality and morbidity than the AFC score (P(c) = 0.014 and P(c) < 0.001 respectively).

CONCLUSION

The E-POSSUM is a good tool for predicting mortality, and the only efficient scoring system for predicting morbidity after major colorectal surgery in the elderly.

Risk factors for mortality-morbidity after emergency-urgent colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the risk factors associated with mortality and morbidity following emergency or urgent colorectal surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All data regarding the 462 patients who underwent emergency colonic resection in our institution between November 2002 and December 2007 were prospectively entered into a computerized database.

RESULTS

The median age of patients was 73 (range 17-98) years. The most common indications for surgery were: 171 adenocarcinomas (37%), 129 complicated diverticulitis (28%), and 35 colonic ischemia (7.5%). Overall mortality and morbidity rates were 14% and 36%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the only parameter significantly associated with postoperative mortality was blood loss >500 cm(3) (odds ratio (OR) = 3.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63-6.82, p = 0.001). There were three parameters which correlated with postoperative morbidity: ASA score > or =3 (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.9-4.5, p < 0.001), colonic ischemia (OR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.4-7.7, p = 0.006), and stoma creation (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.4, p = 0.0003).

CONCLUSIONS

The main risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality following emergency colorectal surgery are related to: (1) patients' ASA score, (2) colonic ischemia, and (3) perioperative bleeding. These variables should be considered in the elaboration of future scoring systems to predict outcome of emergency colorectal surgery.

An easy-to-use solution for clinical audit in colorectal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND

Clinical audit has been increasingly required for the accreditation process in every modern healthcare system. Data collection and analysis are excessively time-consuming in everyday practice. The primary aim of our study was to evaluate the effectiveness of an innovative database to assist surgeons in monitoring clinical practice outcomes in colorectal cancer surgery. The second purpose was to compare observed mortality rates to 3 risk-predicting operative scoring systems.

METHODS

Data were evaluated from 208 consecutive patients undergoing elective and emergency surgery for colorectal cancer over a 2-year period (2003-2004). A new database was developed with specific queries to compare the observed and the expected mortality rates according to 3 scoring systems: the Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM), the ColoRectal-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (CR-POSSUM), and the Association of ColoProctology or Great Britain & Ireland (ACPGBI) score. Results were discussed at regular intervals. Surgeons' satisfaction with each system was evaluated with a questionnaire.

RESULTS

The observed mortality rate was 6.25%, which was significantly lower than the values predicted by CR-POSSUM and ACPGBI colorectal scores (9.14% and 19.42%, respectively; P < .05). P-POSSUM was the most accurate predictor of mortality, with a value of 7.93%. A total of 80% of the surgical staff considered this type of surgical audit activity as clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

The study confirms the usefulness of a dedicated database in a surgical audit activity. The ACPGBI colorectal score largely overestimated 30-day mortality in our experience.

Can SAPS II predict operative mortality more accurately than POSSUM and P-POSSUM in patients with colorectal carcinoma undergoing resection?

BACKGROUND

This study assessed the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II), POSSUM (Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Morbidity and Mortality), and P-POSSUM (Portsmouth-POSSUM) in patients with colorectal cancer undergoing curative or palliative resection.

METHODS

Predicted mortality rates and the observed/expected mortality ratio were computed by means of each scoring system. The results were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors and between elective and emergency operations. Each model was assessed for its accuracy to predict the risk of death using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and risk stratification was generated as well.

RESULTS

Some 224 patients were enrolled in the study. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 3.6% (n = 8). Predicted mortality rates generated by APACHE II, SAPS II, POSSUM, and P-POSSUM were 9.1%, 3.7%, 13.4%, and 5.2%, respectively. All the scoring systems assigned higher scores to those patients who died than to those who survived. Areas under the curve calculated by ROC curve analysis for APACHE II, SAPS II, POSSUM, and P-POSSUM were 0.786, 0.854, 0.793, and 0.831, respectively. Best stratification was achieved by the SAPS II score.

CONCLUSIONS

SAPS II and P-POSSUM were determined to be better predictors for patients with colorectal cancer undergoing resection. SAPS II also was found to have a higher degree of discriminatory power in colorectal resection for carcinoma. The predictive value of this useful severity score in several surgical subgroups must be examined to evaluate its routine use in risk-adjusted audit.

Modified physiological and operative score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity risk assessment model in general surgery

AIM: To establish a scoring system for predicting the incidence of postoperative complications and mortality in general surgery based on the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), and to evaluate its efficacy.

METHODS: Eighty-four patients with postoperative complications or death and 172 patients without postoperative complications, who underwent surgery in our department during the previous 2 years, were retrospectively analyzed by logistic regression. Fifteen indexes were investigated including age, cardiovascular function, respiratory function, blood test results, endocrine function, central nervous system function, hepatic function, renal function, nutritional status, extent of operative trauma, and course of anesthesia. Modified POSSUM (M-POSSUM) was developed using significant risk factors with its efficacy evaluated.

RESULTS: The significant risk factors were found to be age, cardiovascular function, respiratory function, hepatic function, renal function, blood test results, endocrine function, nutritional status, duration of operation, intraoperative blood loss, and course of anesthesia. These factors were all included in the scoring system. There were significant differences in the scores between the patients with and without postoperative complications, between the patients died and survived with complications, and between the patients died and survived without complications. The receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the M-POSSUM could accurately predict postoperative complications and mortality.

CONCLUSION: M-POSSUM correlates well with postoperative complications and mortality, and is more accurate than POSSUM.

The AFC score: validation of a 4-item predicting score of postoperative mortality after colorectal resection for cancer or diverticulitis: results of a prospective multicenter study in 1049 patients

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present prospective study was to validate externally a 4-item predictive score of mortality after colorectal surgery (the AFC score) by testing its generalizability on a new population.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

We have recently reported, in a French prospective multicenter study, that age older than 70 years, neurologic comorbidity, underweight (body weight loss >10% in <6 months), and emergency surgery significantly increased postoperative mortality after resection for cancer or diverticulitis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From June to September 2004, 1049 consecutive patients (548 men and 499 women) with a mean age of 67 +/- 14 years, undergoing open or laparoscopic colorectal resection, were prospectively included. The AFC score was validated in this population. We assessed also the predictive value of other scores, such as the "Glasgow" score and the ASA score. To express and compare the predictive value of the different scores, a receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated.

RESULTS

Postoperative mortality rate was 4.6%. Variables already identified as predictors of mortality and used in the AFC score were also found to be associated with a high odds ratio in this study: emergency surgery, body weight loss >10%, neurologic comorbidity, and age older than 70 years in a multivariate logistic model. The validity of the AFC score in this population was found very high based both on the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (P = 0.37) and on the area under the ROC curve (0.89). We also found that discriminatory capacity was higher than other currently used risk scoring systems such as the Glasgow or ASA score.

CONCLUSION

The present prospective study validated the AFC score as a pertinent predictive score of postoperative mortality after colorectal surgery. Because it is based on only 4 risk factors, the AFC score can be used in daily practice.

The impact of postoperative complications on long-term outcomes following curative resection for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the impact of postoperative complications on long-term survival and disease recurrence in patients who underwent curative resection for colorectal cancer.

METHOD

Patients who underwent radical resection for colorectal cancer with curative intent from January 1996 to December 2004 were included. Operative mortality and morbidity were documented prospectively. Factors that might affect long-term outcome were analyzed with multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Curative resection was performed in 1657 patients (943 men), and the median age was 70 years (range: 24-94 years). The 30-day mortality was 2.4%, and the complication rate was 27.3%. Age over 70 years (P < .001, odds ratio: 2.06, 95% CI: 1.63-2.61), male gender (P = .001, odds ratio: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.19-1.88), emergency operation (P < .001, odds ratio: 3.14, 95% CI: 2.26-4.35) and rectal cancer (P < .001, odds ratio: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.25-1.61) were associated with a significantly higher complication rate. With exclusion of patients who died within 30 days, the median follow-up of the surviving patients was 45.3 months. The 5-year overall survival was 64.9%, and the overall recurrence rate was 29.1%. The presence of postoperative complications was an independent factor associated with a worse overall survival (P = .023, hazard ratio: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.03-1.52) and a higher overall recurrence rate (P = .04, hazard ratio: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.01-1.57).

CONCLUSION

The presence of postoperative complication not only affects the short-term results of resection of colorectal cancer, but the long-term oncologic outcomes are also adversely affected. Long-term outcomes can be improved with efforts to reduce postoperative complications.

Outcome of acutely perforated colorectal cancers: experience of a single district general hospital

INTRODUCTION

Perforation of colorectal cancer (CRC) is rare and is associated with a significantly high mortality and morbidity. The aim of the current study was to evaluate various factors influencing the outcome in these patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 42 patients with perforated CRC between 1999 and 2003 was performed. A number of variables including age, sex, site of perforation, presence of faecal peritonitis, grade of surgeon, presence of metastasis, stage of tumour, type of surgery, ASA grade and CR POSSUM score were analysed for their influence on the outcome in these patients using MS Excel, MS Access and Stata.

RESULTS

Of the 42 patients 19 were female and 23 were male. The mean age of the patients was 70.5 (range 44-96yr). Thirty patients had perforation at the tumour, 10 proximal to the tumour, and one distal to the primary tumour. The perforation was localised in 25 patients. However, 17 patients had free perforation with frank faecal peritonitis. Twenty-one patients had resection and anastomosis, 18 patients had resection without restoration of bowel continuity and 3 had palliative colostomy. The in-hospital mortality (within 30d) was 40.5% (n=17) with only 15 patients being alive at the end of 2yr with an overall mortality of 64.3% (n=27). The outcome was not altered by variables such as sex, surgeon's grade, surgical procedure, Dukes' staging or the site of perforation (p>0.5). Univariate analysis showed that advanced age (p<0.01), higher ASA grade (p<0.001), higher CR POSSUM score (p<0.001) and degree of peritonitis (p<0.01) were strongly associated with adverse outcomes. However, in stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis ASA grade (p=0.01) and CR POSSUM score (p=0.01) were the only significant predictors of in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

The outcome of perforated colonic cancer continues to be poor. ASA score and CR POSSUM score are good predictors of the short-term outcome.