A simple influenza model with complicated dynamics

Seasonal Shifts in Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, and Other Respiratory Viruses After the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Eight-Year Retrospective Study in Jalisco, Mexico

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic profoundly disrupted the epidemiology of respiratory viruses, driven primarily by widespread non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and masking. This eight-year retrospective study examines the seasonal patterns and incidence of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other respiratory viruses across pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic phases in Jalisco, Mexico. Weekly case counts were analyzed using an interrupted time series (ITS) model, segmenting the timeline into these three distinct phases. Significant reductions in respiratory virus circulation were observed during the pandemic, followed by atypical resurgences as NPIs were relaxed. Influenza displayed alternating subtype dominance, with influenza A H3 prevailing in 2022, influenza B surging in 2023, and influenza A H1N1 increasing thereafter, reflecting potential immunity gaps. RSV activity was marked by earlier onset and higher intensity post-pandemic. Other viruses, including human rhinovirus/enterovirus (HRV/HEV) and parainfluenza virus (HPIV), showed altered dynamics, with some failing to return to pre-pandemic seasonality. These findings underscore the need for adaptive surveillance systems and vaccination strategies to address evolving viral patterns. Future research should investigate the long-term public health implications, focusing on vaccination, clinical outcomes, and healthcare preparedness.

How immune dynamics shape multi-season epidemics: a continuous-discrete model in one dimensional antigenic space

We extend a previously published model for the dynamics of a single strain of an influenza-like infection. The model incorporates a waning acquired immunity to infection and punctuated antigenic drift of the virus, employing a set of coupled integral equations within a season and a discrete map between seasons. The long term behaviour of the model is demonstrated by examples where immunity to infection depends on the time since a host was last infected, and where immunity depends on the number of times that a host has been infected. The first scenario leads to complicated dynamics in some regions of parameter space, and to regions of parameter space with more than one attractor. The second scenario leads to a stable fixed point, corresponding to an identical epidemic each season. We also examine the model with both paradigms in combination, almost always but not exclusively observing a stable fixed point or periodic solution. Adding stochastic perturbations to the between season map fails to destroy the model's qualitative dynamics. Our results suggest that if the level of host immunity depends on the elapsed time since the last infection then the epidemiological dynamics may be unpredictable.

Preliminary evidence for chaotic signatures in host-microbe interactions

Host-microbe interactions constitute dynamical systems that can be represented by mathematical formulations that determine their dynamic nature and are categorized as deterministic, stochastic, or chaotic. Knowing the type of dynamical interaction is essential for understanding the system under study. Very little experimental work has been done to determine the dynamical characteristics of host-microbe interactions, and its study poses significant challenges. The most straightforward experimental outcome involves an observation of time to death upon infection. However, in measuring this outcome, the internal parameters and the dynamics of each particular host-microbe interaction in a population of interactions are hidden from the experimentalist. To investigate whether a time-to-death (time-to-event) data set provides adequate information for searching for chaotic signatures, we first determined our ability to detect chaos in simulated data sets of time-to-event measurements and successfully distinguished the time-to-event distribution of a chaotic process from a comparable stochastic one. To do so, we introduced an inversion measure to test for a chaotic signature in time-to-event distributions. Next, we searched for chaos in the time-to-death of Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa or Pseudomonas entomophila, respectively. We found suggestions of chaotic signatures in both systems but caution that our results are preliminary and highlight the need for more fine-grained and larger data sets in determining dynamical characteristics. If validated, chaos in host-microbe interactions would have important implications for the occurrence and outcome of infectious diseases, the reproducibility of experiments in the field of microbial pathogenesis, and the prediction of microbial threats.IMPORTANCEIs microbial pathogenesis a predictable scientific field? At a time when we are dealing with coronavirus disease 2019, there is intense interest in knowing about the epidemic potential of other microbial threats and new emerging infectious diseases. To know whether microbial pathogenesis will ever be a predictable scientific field requires knowing whether a host-microbe interaction follows deterministic, stochastic, or chaotic dynamics. If randomness and chaos are absent from virulence, there is hope for prediction in the future regarding the outcome of microbe-host interactions. Chaotic systems are inherently unpredictable, although it is possible to generate short-term probabilistic models, as is done in applications of stochastic processes and machine learning to weather forecasting. Information on the dynamics of a system is also essential for understanding the reproducibility of experiments, a topic of great concern in the biological sciences. Our study finds preliminary evidence for chaotic dynamics in infectious diseases.

Chaotic signatures in host-microbe interactions

Host-microbe interactions constitute dynamical systems that can be represented by mathematical formulations that determine their dynamic nature, and are categorized as deterministic, stochastic, or chaotic. Knowing the type of dynamical interaction is essential for understanding the system under study. Very little experimental work has been done to determine the dynamical characteristics of host-microbe interactions and its study poses significant challenges. The most straightforward experimental outcome involves an observation of time to death upon infection. However, in measuring this outcome, the internal parameters, and the dynamics of each particular host-microbe interaction in a population of interactions are hidden from the experimentalist. To investigate whether a time-to-death (time to event) dataset provides adequate information for searching for chaotic signatures, we first determined our ability to detect chaos in simulated data sets of time-to-event measurements and successfully distinguished the time-to-event distribution of a chaotic process from a comparable stochastic one. To do so, we introduced an inversion measure to test for a chaotic signature in time-to-event distributions. Next, we searched for chaos, in time-to-death of Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa or Pseudomonas entomophila, respectively. We found suggestions of chaotic signatures in both systems, but caution that our results are preliminary and highlight the need for more fine-grained and larger data sets in determining dynamical characteristics. If validated, chaos in host-microbe interactions would have important implications for the occurrence and outcome of infectious diseases, the reproducibility of experiments in the field of microbial pathogenesis and the prediction of microbial threats.

Generalized external synchronization of networks based on clustered pandemic systems-The approach of Covid-19 towards influenza

Real-world models, like those used in social studies, epidemiology, energy transport, engineering, and finance, are often called "multi-layer networks." In this work, we have described a controller that connects the paths of synchronized models that are grouped together in clusters. We did this using Lyapunov theory and a variety of coupled matrices to look into the link between the groups of chaotic systems based on influenza and covid-19. Our work also includes the use of external synchrony in biological systems. For example, we have explained in detail how the pandemic disease covid-19 will get weaker over time and become more like influenza. The analytical way to get these answers is to prove a theorem, and the numerical way is to use MATLAB to run numerical simulations.

Forward-backward and period doubling bifurcations in a discrete epidemic model with vaccination and limited medical resources

A discrete epidemic model with vaccination and limited medical resources is proposed to understand its underlying dynamics. The model induces a nonsmooth two dimensional map that exhibits a surprising array of dynamical behavior including the phenomena of the forward-backward bifurcation and period doubling route to chaos with feasible parameters in an invariant region. We demonstrate, among other things, that the model generates the above described phenomena as the transmission rate or the basic reproduction number of the disease gradually increases provided that the immunization rate is low, the vaccine failure rate is high and the medical resources are limited. Finally, the numerical simulations are provided to illustrate our main results.

Beyond the Bristol book: Advances and perspectives in non-smooth dynamics and applications

Non-smooth dynamics induced by switches, impacts, sliding, and other abrupt changes are pervasive in physics, biology, and engineering. Yet, systems with non-smooth dynamics have historically received far less attention compared to their smooth counterparts. The classic "Bristol book" [di Bernardo et al., Piecewise-smooth Dynamical Systems. Theory and Applications (Springer-Verlag, 2008)] contains a 2008 state-of-the-art review of major results and challenges in the study of non-smooth dynamical systems. In this paper, we provide a detailed review of progress made since 2008. We cover hidden dynamics, generalizations of sliding motion, the effects of noise and randomness, multi-scale approaches, systems with time-dependent switching, and a variety of local and global bifurcations. Also, we survey new areas of application, including neuroscience, biology, ecology, climate sciences, and engineering, to which the theory has been applied.

Multistability of a Two-Dimensional Map Arising in an Influenza Model

In this paper, we propose and analyze a nonsmoothly two-dimensional map arising in a seasonal influenza model. Such map consists of both linear and nonlinear dynamics depending on where the map acts on its domain. The map exhibits a complicated and unpredictable dynamics such as fixed points, period points, chaotic attractors, or multistability depending on the ranges of a certain parameters. Surprisingly, bistable states include not only the coexistence of a stable fixed point and stable period three points but also that of stable period three points and a chaotic attractor. Among other things, we are able to prove rigorously the coexistence of the stable equilibrium and stable period three points for a certain range of the parameters. Our results also indicate that heterogeneity of the population drives the complication and unpredictability of the dynamics. Specifically, the most complex dynamics occur when the underlying basic reproduction number with respect to our model is an intermediate value and the large portion of the population in the same compartment changes in states the following season.

An epidemic model for an evolving pathogen with strain-dependent immunity

Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains, preventing a build up of immunity in the host population. In this paper, a parsimonious epidemic model is defined that attempts to capture the dynamics of evolving strains within a host population. The 'evolving strains' epidemic model has many properties that lie in-between the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and the Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemic models, due to the fact that individuals can only be infected by each strain once, but remain susceptible to reinfection by newly emerged strains. Coupling results are used to identify key properties, such as the time to extinction. A range of reproduction numbers are explored to characterise the model, including a novel quasi-stationary reproduction number that can be used to describe the re-emergence of the pathogen into a population with 'average' levels of strain immunity, analogous to the beginning of the winter peak in influenza. Finally the quasi-stationary distribution of the evolving strains model is explored via simulation.