Role of the Egami score to predict immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease among a Western Mediterranean population

Evaluating the performance of egami, kobayashi and sano scores in predicting IVIG resistance in infant kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of Egami, Kobayashi and Sano scores in predicting intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in infant Kawasaki disease (KD), considering its unique clinical presentation.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed 143 infants aged < 12 months and diagnosed with KD at a single centre from 2019 to 2023. Patients were divided into IVIG-resistant and IVIG-responsive groups. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were compared between the groups. The diagnostic performance of Egami, Kobayashi and Sano scores in predicting IVIG resistance was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Additionally, we developed a new scoring system based on significant predictors identified in our cohort.

RESULTS

Among 143 infants, 45 (31.5%) showed IVIG resistance. The IVIG-resistant group had a significantly higher rate of coronary artery lesions (15.6% vs. 5.1%, p = 0.036). Incomplete KD was observed in 61.5% of cases. Egami, Kobayashi and Sano scores exhibited low sensitivity (35.6%, 55.6% and 20%, respectively) and moderate specificity (77.6%, 63.3% and 95.9%, respectively) in predicting IVIG resistance. The AUC ranged from 0.583 to 0.674, indicating poor to fair discriminative ability. Our newly developed scoring system, based on total bilirubin and albumin levels, showed similar performance (AUC 0.633) to existing scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing Japanese risk scoring systems and our newly developed score showed limited effectiveness in predicting IVIG resistance in infant KD. The high proportion of incomplete presentation and IVIG resistance in infants highlights the need for age-specific risk assessment and management. Further research is necessary to develop more sophisticated, dedicated prediction model for IVIG resistance in infants with KD.

Comparison of Risk-Scoring Systems in Predicting Kawasaki Disease Associated Coronary Artery Dilation in a North American Cohort

Scoring systems used to predict morbidity in children with Kawasaki disease (KD) have been developed and validated in Asian populations. The objective of this study was to assess their utility in predicting the development of coronary artery dilation in children with KD in North America. This was a secondary analysis of a National Institutes of Health / National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NIH/NHLBI) Pediatric Heart Network public use dataset from a multicenter, randomized controlled trial of pulse steroid therapy in KD in a North American cohort. The primary outcome of interest was development of coronary artery dilation. The Harada, Kobayashi, Egami, and Sano scoring systems, originally developed to predict risk of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in Kawasaki patients in Japan, were applied to this cohort. Subjects were kept in the analysis only if there were complete data for every element of each scoring system-Harada (n = 132), Kobayashi (n = 88), Egami (n = 139), and Sano (n = 82). Patients classified as high-risk by the Harada score were more likely to have significant coronary artery dilation (p = 0.042), were more likely to require IVIG retreatment (p = 0.002), and were more likely to require hospital readmission (p < 0.001). The Egami, Kobayashi, and Sano scores were not predictive for any measured outcome. The Harada score can be useful in identifying KD patients at risk for developing coronary artery dilation and IVIG resistance. The Harada score has demonstrated higher sensitivity but lower specificity, making it a valuable screening tool that may benefit from supplementary diagnostic methods.

Construction and validation of predictive models for intravenous immunoglobulin-resistant Kawasaki disease using an interpretable machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistant Kawasaki disease is associated with coronary artery lesion development.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to explore the factors associated with IVIG-resistance and construct and validate an interpretable machine learning (ML) prediction model in clinical practice.

METHODS

Between December 2014 and November 2022, 602 patients were screened and risk factors for IVIG-resistance investigated. Five ML models are used to establish an optimal prediction model. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used to interpret the ML model.

RESULTS

Na+, hemoglobin (Hb), C-reactive protein (CRP), and globulin were independent risk factors for IVIG-resistance. A nonlinear relationship was identified between globulin level and IVIG-resistance. The XGBoost model exhibited excellent performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.821, accuracy of 0.748, sensitivity of 0.889, and specificity of 0.683 in the testing set. The XGBoost model was interpreted globally and locally using the SHAP method.

CONCLUSION

Na+, Hb, CRP, and globulin levels were independently associated with IVIG-resistance. Our findings demonstrate that ML models can reliably predict IVIG-resistance. Moreover, use of the SHAP method to interpret the established XGBoost model's findings would provide evidence of IVIG-resistance and guide the individualized treatment of Kawasaki disease.

The role of serum lipid in predicting coronary artery lesions and intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the predictive value of the serum lipid profile for initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery lesions (CALs) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with KD and divided them into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. They were also stratified based on the presence of CALs (CALs and non-CALs groups). Clinical, echocardiographic and biochemical values were evaluated. A subgroup analysis was performed on complete and incomplete KD. Predictors of initial IVIG resistance and CALs were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 649 KD patients were enrolled: 151 had CALs and 76 had initial IVIG resistance. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) was significantly lower in the IVIG-resistant group than in the IVIG-responsive group. LDL-C and apolipoprotein (Apo) B were significantly lower in the CALs group compared with the non-CALs group. Multivariate logistic regression failed to identify the serum lipid profile (LDL-C, Apo A or Apo B) as an independent risk factor for initial IVIG resistance or CALs in KD patients.

CONCLUSION

KD patients might have dyslipidaemia in the acute phase, but the serum lipid profile might not be suitable as a single predictor for initial IVIG resistance or CALs.

Predictive value of albumin for intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in a large cohort of Kawasaki disease patients

BACKGROUND

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) has been the mainstay of treatment for Kawasaki disease (KD) over the past decades. However, 10-20% of KD patients are resistant to IVIG treatment which puts those patients at high risk of coronary artery lesions (CALs). Therefore, it is important to predict whether patients will be resistant to IVIG before the treatment. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for IVIG non-responsive patients with KD.

METHODS

This study enrolled patients diagnosed with KD and divided them into two groups, IVIG responders and IVIG non-responders. We compared the differences in demographics and clinical data between the two groups. Differences among the groups were analyzed by ANOVA and Chi-square analysis. Predictors of IVIG resistance were determined by multiple logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 907 KD patients were reviewed, with 841 IVIG responders and 66 IVIG non-responders. Patients in IVIG responders were younger than IVIG non-responders. The length of hospitalization of the IVIG non-responders was significantly longer than IVIG responders. The neutrophils%, C-reaction protein (CRP), and CRP/albumin ratio in IVIG responders were significantly lower than in IVIG non-responders (P < 0.05). The lymphocyte% and Albumin in IVIG responders were significantly higher than in IVIG non-responders. Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that albumin (OR = 0.881, 95% CI, 0.781 to 0.994, p-value = 0.039) was an independent risk factor for predicting IVIG resistance. The area under the ROC curve was 0.644, with a cut-off of ≤ 33.4 g/L determined by Youden's index. The sensitivity and specificity in predicting IVIG resistance were 40.91% and 83.47%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Albumin can serve as a potential predicting marker for IVIG resistance in KD. A lower albumin level may be useful for identifying KD patients with a high risk of IVIG resistance to guide further therapy strategies.

French national diagnostic and care protocol for Kawasaki disease

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute vasculitis with a particular tropism for the coronary arteries. KD mainly affects male children between 6 months and 5 years of age. The diagnosis is clinical, based on the international American Heart Association criteria. It should be systematically considered in children with a fever, either of 5 days or more, or of 3 days if all other criteria are present. It is important to note that most children present with marked irritability and may have digestive signs. Although the biological inflammatory response is not specific, it is of great value for the diagnosis. Because of the difficulty of recognising incomplete or atypical forms of KD, and the need for urgent treatment, the child should be referred to a paediatric hospital as soon as the diagnosis is suspected. In the event of signs of heart failure (pallor, tachycardia, polypnea, sweating, hepatomegaly, unstable blood pressure), medical transfer to an intensive care unit (ICU) is essential. The standard treatment is an infusion of IVIG combined with aspirin (before 10 days of fever, and for a minimum of 6 weeks), which reduces the risk of coronary aneurysms. In case of coronary involvement, antiplatelet therapy can be maintained for life. In case of a giant aneurysm, anticoagulant treatment is added to the antiplatelet agent. The prognosis of KD is generally good and most children recover without sequelae. The prognosis in children with initial coronary involvement depends on the progression of the cardiac anomalies, which are monitored during careful specialised cardiological follow-up.

Risk scores for Kawasaki disease, a management tool developed by the KAWA-RACE cohort

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES

Asian scores developed to predict unresponsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) or development of coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) are not appropriate in Western populations. The purpose of this study is to develop 2 scores, to predict unresponsiveness to IVIG and development of CAA, appropriate for Spanish population.

METHOD

Data of 625 Spanish children with KD collected retrospectively (2011-2016) were used to identify variables to develop the 2 scores of interest: unresponsiveness to IVIG and development of CAA. A statistical model selected best variables to create the scores, and scores were validated with data from 98 patients collected prospectively.

RESULTS

From 625 patients of the retrospective cohort, final analysis was performed in 439 subjects: 37 developed CAA, and 212 were unresponsive to IVIG. For the score to predict CAA, a cutoff ≥ 8 was considered for high risk, considering a score system with a different weight for each of the eight variables. External validation showed a sensitivity of 22% and a specificity of 75%. The score to predict unresponsiveness to IVIG established a cutoff ≥ 8 for high risk, considering a score system with a different weight for each of the nine variables. External validation showed a sensitivity of 78% and a specificity of 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

Two risk scores for KD were developed from Spanish population, to predict development of CAA and unresponsiveness to IVIG; validation in other cohorts could help to implement these tools in the management of KD in other Western populations.

Combination of fecal calprotectin and initial coronary dimensions to predict coronary artery lesions persistence in Kawasaki disease

Kawasaki Disease (KD) is systemic vasculitis involving medium-sized vessels in children. The aim of our study is to determine if fecal calprotectin (FC) could be useful in predicting the development or persistence of coronary artery lesions (CALs) in KD. We conducted a prospective monocentric study including all consecutive diagnoses of. Clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic data were recorded during the acute and subacute phase, including FC. Correlations among laboratory values, FC, clinical manifestations, IVIG-responsiveness and CALs development were investigated. We enrolled 26 children (76.9% boys; median age 34.5 months). The combination of FC > 250 microg/g and z-score > 2 during the acute phase was associated with the persistence of CALs (p = 0.022). A z-score > 2 alone during the acute phase was not related to CALs during the subacute stage (p > 0.05). A neutrophil percentage > 70% and WBC > 15,000/mmc during the acute phase significantly correlated with the presence of CALs during the subacute phase (p = 0.008). C-reactive protein (CRP) > 13 mg/dL at KD onset was significantly associated with the presence of CALs during the acute (p = 0.017) and subacute phase (p = 0.001). The combination of FC > 250 microg/g and a z-score > 2 during the acute phase of KD may be used as a predictor of CALs persistence. It can be useful especially in children with an initial CRP < 13 mg/dl.

Predictive value of Albumin-Bilirubin grade for intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in a large cohort of patients with Kawasaki disease: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance prediction is one of the primary clinical issues and study hotspots in KD. This study aimed to prospectively investigate the value of albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI) in predicting IVIG resistance in KD and to assess whether ALBI has more predictive value or accuracy than either ALB or TBil alone in predicting IVIG resistance.

METHODS

A total of 823 patients with KD were prospectively enrolled. The clinical and laboratory data were compared between the IVIG-response group (n = 708) and the IVIG-resistance group (n = 115). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for IVIG resistance. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was applied to assess the validity of ALBI, ALB, and TBil in predicting IVIG resistance.

RESULTS

ALBI was significantly higher in patients with IVIG resistance and was identified as an independent risk factor for IVIG resistance in KD. The parameter of ALBI ≥ - 2.57 (AUC: 0.705, 95 %CI: 0.672-0.736), ALB ≤ 33.0 g/L (AUC: 0.659, 95 %CI: 0.626-0.692), and TBil ≥ 16.0µmol/L (AUC: 0.626, 95 %CI: 0.592-0.659), produced a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 0.617, 0.657, 0.226 and 0.914; 0.374, 0.850, 0.289 and 0.893; 0.269, 0.941, 0.425 and 0.888, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher ALBI was an independent risk factor for IVIG resistance in KD. It yielded better predictive ability than ALB and TBil alone for initial IVIG resistance.

Serum tenascin-C predicts resistance to steroid combination therapy in high-risk Kawasaki disease: a multicenter prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Tenascin-C (TN-C) is an extracellular matrix glycoprotein related to tissue inflammation. Our previous retrospective study conducted in 2016 revealed that the serum tenascin-C level was higher in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) who were resistant to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and developed coronary artery lesions (CALs). The present study is a prospective cohort study to assess if the serum level of tenascin-C could be used as a novel biomarker to predict the risk of resistance to initial treatment for high-risk patients.

METHODS

A total of 380 KD patients were registered and provided serum samples for tenascin-C measurement before commencing their initial treatment. Patients who did not meet the inclusion criteria were excluded from analysis; of the 181 remaining subjects, there were 144 low-risk patients (Kobayashi score: ≤4 points) and 37 high-risk patients (Kobayashi score: ≥5 points). The initial treatments for low-risk patients and high-risk patients were conventional therapy (IVIG with aspirin) and prednisolone combination therapy, respectively. The patient clinical and laboratory data, including the serum tenascin-C level, were compared between initial treatment responders and non-responders.

RESULTS

In the low-risk patients, there was no significant difference in the median levels of serum tenascin-C between the initial therapy responders and non-responders. However, in the high-risk patients, the median serum tenascin-C level in initial therapy non-responders was significantly higher than that in initial therapy responders (175.8 ng/ml vs 117.6 ng/ml).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum tenascin-C could be a biomarker for predicting the risk of high-risk patients being non-responsive to steroid combination therapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study was a prospective cohort study. It was approved by the ethics committee of each institute and performed in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki.

Circulating Immune Cell Profile and Changes in Intravenous Immunoglobulin Responsiveness Over the Disease Course in Children With Kawasaki Disease

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute, self-limited febrile illness of young children. The etiology of KD remains to be poorly understood. There has been limited research on longitudinal examination of peripheral blood leukocytes for immune profiling particularly in relation to treatment response with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). This study profiles immune cells at the time of diagnosis and over the disease course. In addition, we identified the characteristics of the immune cells in IVIG-responsive patients with KD. We enrolled patients diagnosed with KD between May 1, 2017, and January 1, 2020. Blood was taken at least three times from all enrolled patients: at diagnosis (before IVIG infusion) and immediately and 2 weeks after IVIG infusion. We evaluated the laboratory findings and results of flow cytometry analysis of immune cells at all stages, focusing on CD4⁺ T lymphocytes, CD8⁺ T lymphocytes, CD19⁺ B lymphocytes, granulocytes, classical monocytes, and natural killer (NK) cells. Non-febrile healthy controls (NFCs) and other febrile controls (OFCs) were also enrolled. A total of 68 patients were enrolled and divided into two groups according to IVIG resistance status: IVIG-responsive (n = 55) and IVIG-resistant (n = 13). The total fever duration was significantly longer in the IVIG-resistant group (9.7 ± 5.3 days) than in the IVIG-responsive group (6.7 ± 3.0 days; P = 0.02). There was a significant difference in intermediate CD14⁺CD16⁺ monocytes between KD patients and both NFC and OFCs; they were significantly higher and lower in KD patients than NFC and OFCs, respectively (P < 0.001). The levels of all three subtypes of NK cells were significantly lower in KD patients than in both NFC and OFCs (P < 0.001). Regarding IVIG responsiveness, CD14⁺CD16⁺ intermediate monocyte levels were significantly lower in the IVIG-resistant group (P < 0.001). In addition, CD56^-CD16⁺ NK cell expression was significantly lower in the IVIG-resistant group than in the IVIG-responsive group (P = 0.002). In conclusion, our results suggest CD56^-CD16⁺N NK cells and CD14⁺CD16⁺ intermediate monocytes might play an essential role in immunopathogenesis of KD. Further studies are warranted to explore the role of these subpopulations particularly for the observed association with coronary artery lesions (CAL) and treatment response.

Non-coronary cardiac events, younger age, and IVIG unresponsiveness increase the risk for coronary aneurysms in Italian children with Kawasaki disease

OBJECTIVES

Kawasaki disease (KD) is the most frequent cause of acquired heart disease in children in high-income countries because of coronary artery involvement. Risk factors for coronary lesions can vary in consideration of different genetic background and environmental factors.

METHODS

Multicenter retrospective and prospective study including 372 consecutive children (58% boys; mean age 34.3 ± 30.3 months, Caucasian 85%) was diagnosed with KD. We divided the cohort into 2 groups according to the presence of coronary anomalies (CAA) and aneurysms. We compared the groups and studied the risk factors for CAA and for aneurysms, the most severe lesions.

RESULTS

Children with CAA were 91/372 (24.46%, aneurysms 20/372, 5.37%). Children with CAA were more likely to have a longer duration of fever (p < 0.001), later day of treatment (p < 0.001), to be IVIG non-responders and late treated (p < 0.001), while age, clinical presentation, and seasonality were not different. They also had significantly higher WBC and neutrophils, lower lymphocytes, Hb and Na during the acute stage, and slower resolution of inflammation. Age, IVIG unresponsiveness, and presence of non-coronary cardiac findings were independent risk factors for CAA and for aneurysms, while neutrophils just for CAA. Age under 6 months was a risk factor for the aneurysm. Aneurysms occurred more frequently in the first quartile of the age of KD onset (under 14 months).

CONCLUSION

Very young children with non-coronary cardiac findings are at increased risk for a more severe form of KD with aneurysms. These children could benefit from adjunctive therapy beside IVIG, especially if they have higher markers of inflammation, particularly neutrophils. Key points • Risk factors for coronary lesions can vary in consideration of different genetic background and environmental factors. • Risk factors for coronary involvement have been extensively studied in the Asian population, and others have been validated in cohorts with mixed ethnicities. • In our predominantly Caucasian population, non-coronary cardiac findings, age younger than 6 months, and IVIG unresponsiveness are independent risk factors for a more severe form of KD with aneurysms.

Corticosteroids Added to Initial Intravenous Immunoglobulin Treatment for the Prevention of Coronary Artery Abnormalities in High-Risk Patients With Kawasaki Disease

BACKGROUND Randomized controlled trials previously provided different conclusions about the superiority of adding corticosteroids to initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment for the prevention of coronary artery abnormalities in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). To further assess this issue, we analyzed large-scale data from nationwide KD surveys in Japan, where combination treatment (corticosteroids added to initial standard intravenous immunoglobulin treatment) has become commonly used for patients at high risk for KD. METHODS AND RESULTS Standard intravenous immunoglobulin treatment and combination treatment were compared using data from time periods with and without combination treatment. Outcome measures were coronary artery abnormalities and initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment failure. Hospitals where ≥20% of patients received combination treatment were identified, and treatment and control groups were selected via matching by age, sex, illness day at initial treatment, and KD recurrence. Matched group selection and subsequent analyses were conducted 1000 times to minimize sampling bias and potential confounders (bootstrapping). From 115 hospitals, 1593 patients with KD in the treatment group and 1593 controls were selected for each of the 1000 sample iterations. The median proportion of patients who developed coronary artery abnormalities among the treatment group and controls were 4.6% (95% CI, 3.8%-5.8%) and 8.8% (95% CI, 7.5%-10.0%), respectively: an estimated risk ratio of 0.53 (0.41-0.67). A median of 14.1% (95% CI, 12.4%-15.9%) of the patients in the treatment group and 21.7% (95% CI, 19.8%-23.4%) in the controls had treatment failure: an estimated risk ratio of 0.65 (0.56-0.75). CONCLUSIONS Combination treatment reduced coronary artery abnormality risk by an estimated 47% and treatment failure by 35%. Multiple-dose corticosteroids may provide benefit in selected patients at high risk for KD.

Usefulness of Kawasaki disease risk scoring systems to the Turkish population

OBJECTIVE

Kawasaki disease (KD) is the most common cause of coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) in children. The available risk scores to predict intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and CAA were developed in Asian populations in whom their effectiveness has been proven, but data on non-Asian children are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the ability of 5 risk scoring systems to predict IVIG resistance and CAA in Turkey patients with KD.

METHODS

Patients with KD were retrospectively evaluated with clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic findings. Data analyses were performed in 5 scoring systems (Harada, Kobayashi, Egami, Formosa, and Sano).

RESULTS

A total of 259 patients (Male: Female, 1.7) were treated for KD in our hospital. The mean age of diagnosis in patients with KD, CAA, and IVIG resistance were 3.31, 2.19, and 2.06, respectively. CAA development and IVIG resistance were seen in 11.6% and 12.3% of cases, respectively. IVIG resistance was detected in 35.6% of patients with CAA. In our study, 5 risk scoring systems were applied to our patients. ROC analysis results were found highest in Kobayashi scoring system for IVIG resistance (AUC, 0.864) and in Harada scoring system for CAA development (AUC, 0.727).

CONCLUSION

Harada score was significant in predicting CAA risk, and Kobayashi score was significant in predicting the risk of developing IVIG resistance. It is necessary to determine more specific and sensitive risk scores that increase the risk of IVIG resistance and the development of CAA in Turkey.

Platelet Count Variation and Risk for Coronary Artery Abnormalities in Kawasaki Disease

BACKGROUND

Platelet count is considered as a biomarker for the development of coronary artery abnormalities (CAAs) among Kawasaki disease (KD) patients. However, previous studies have reported inconsistent results. We addressed the controversial association of platelet count with CAAs using a large-scale dataset.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using KD survey data from Japan (2015-2016; n = 25,448). Classifying patients by intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) responsiveness, we described the trends in platelet count using the lowest and highest values along with the specific illness days. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between platelet count and CAAs, adjusting for relevant factors.

RESULTS

Platelet counts rapidly decreased from admission, reached the lowest count at 6-7 days, and peaked after 10 days. Platelet counts in IVIG non-responders decreased with a lower minimum value than IVIG responders, but subsequently rebounded toward a higher maximum. Compared with patients with normal platelet counts (150-450 × 10/L), patients with abnormally high platelet counts (>450 × 10/L) were more likely to have CAAs at admission (adjusted odds ratio: IVIG responders, 1.50 [95% confidence interval 1.20-1.87] and non-responders, 1.46 [1.01-2.12]). By contrast, IVIG non-responding patients whose counts were below normal (<150 × 10/L) after hospitalization were at higher risk for developing CAAs (2.27 [1.44-3.58]).

CONCLUSIONS

Platelet count varied widely by illness day and was confounded by IVIG responsiveness, which might have contributed to previous inconsistent findings. KD patients with abnormally high platelet counts at admission or abnormally low counts after hospitalization were at higher risk for CAAs.

Defining the risk of first intravenous immunoglobulin unresponsiveness in non-Asian patients with Kawasaki disease

About 10–20% of patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) are unresponsive to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) and are at increased risk of coronary artery abnormalities (CAAs). Early identification is critical to initiate aggressive therapies, but available scoring systems lack sensitivity in non-Japanese populations. We investigated the accuracy of 3 Japanese scoring systems and studied factors associated with IVIg unresponsiveness in a large multiethnic French population of children with KD to build a new scoring system. Children admitted for KD between 2011–2014 in 65 centers were enrolled. Factors associated with second line-treatment; i.e. unresponsiveness to initial IVIg treatment, were analyzed by multivariate regression analysis. The performance of our score and the Kobayashi, Egami and Sano scores were compared in our population and in ethnic subgroups. Overall, 465 children were reported by 84 physicians; 425 were classified with KD (55% European Caucasian, 12% North African/Middle Eastern, 10% African/Afro-Caribbean, 3% Asian and 11% mixed). Eighty patients (23%) needed second-line treatment. Japanese scores had poor performance in our whole population (sensitivity 14–61%). On multivariate regression analysis, predictors of secondary treatment after initial IVIG were hepatomegaly, ALT level ≥30 IU/L, lymphocyte count <2400/mm³ and time to treatment <5 days. The best sensitivity (77%) and specificity (60%) of this model was with 1 point per variable and cut-off ≥2 points. The sensitivity remained good in our 3 main ethnic subgroups (74–88%). We identified predictors of IVIg resistance and built a new score with good sensitivity and acceptable specificity in a non-Asian population.

Risk Factors of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Children With Kawasaki Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Case-Control Studies

Previous studies have shown that children with Kawasaki disease (KD) who fail to respond to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy are at higher risk of developing coronary artery lesions (CALs). We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to uncover the risk factors associated with IVIG resistance in children with KD. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched up to 31st October 2019, and 23 case-control studies were finally eligible, enrolling 2,053 patients of IVIG resistance and 16,635 patients of IVIG sensitivity. Potential factors were comprehensively analyzed by using stata15 software with a standard meta-analysis procedure and consequently found that in addition to patients with polymorphous rash or swelling of extremities symptoms had a tendency to be non-responders, IVIG resistance was more likely to occur in patients with severe anemia, hypoalbuminemia, decreased baseline platelet count, and elevated levels of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and neutrophils percentage. Particularly, male sex, hyponatraemia, increased aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were confirmed as the risk factors favor IVIG resistance in Mongoloids from Asia countries, but not in Caucasians from non-Asia regions. In summary, we report several risk factors relevant to IVIG resistance in children with KD, which may provide guidance for the prediction of IVIG resistance. But a proposing of an optimal prediction system with high specificity and sensitivity needs further studies because of confounding factors.

C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio for Predicting Coronary Artery Lesions and Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Kawasaki Disease

Background: C-reactive protein (CRP) to albumin ratio (CRP/Alb) has emerged as a novel marker of inflammation, but few studies have evaluated the role of CRP/Alb ratio in Kawasaki disease (KD). Coronary artery lesions (CAL) in children with KD is a major acquired heart disease. We aimed to assess the association between CRP/Alb ratio and CAL formation in children with KD. Methods: This retrospective study enrolled children diagnosed with KD and divided them into two groups, KD with CAL and KD without CAL. We compared the difference in gender, age, laboratory data, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance rate, and incidence of CAL between the two groups. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the independent risk factors of CAL. We adopted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the predictive ability of CRP/Alb ratio in predicting CAL. Results: In total, 410 KD patients were reviewed, with 143 in the KD with CAL group and 267 in the KD without CAL group. KD children with CAL had a higher CRP/Alb ratio than those without CAL (3.14 ± 3.17 vs. 2.12 ± 2.04, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that male gender (OR = 3.222, p < 0.001), incomplete KD (OR = 1.968, p = 0.031), greater platelet count (OR = 1.004, p < 0.001), higher CRP (OR = 0.982, p = 0.048), and higher CRP/Alb ratio (OR = 1.994, P = 0.016) were all independent risk factors for predicting CAL. KD children with a high CRP/Alb ratio (≥2.94) had a higher incidence rate of CAL and IVIG resistance than those with a low CRP/Alb ratio (<2.94) (49.6 vs. 28.7%, p < 0.001 and 11.6 vs. 3.5%, p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusions: This report is the first to show the role of CRP/Alb ratio in KD children. CRP/Alb ratio can serve as a novel predicting marker for CAL formation and IVIG resistance in KD.

Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Initial Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Children With Kawasaki Disease

We constructed an optimal machine learning (ML) method for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in children with Kawasaki disease (KD) using commonly available clinical and laboratory variables. We retrospectively collected 98 clinical records of hospitalized children with KD (2-109 months of age). We found that 20 (20%) children were resistant to initial IVIG therapy. We trained three ML techniques, including logistic regression, linear support vector machine, and eXtreme gradient boosting with 10 variables against IVIG resistance. Moreover, we estimated the predictive performance based on nested 5-fold cross-validation (CV). We also selected variables using the recursive feature elimination method and performed the nested 5-fold CV with selected variables in a similar manner. We compared ML models with the existing system regardless of their predictive performance. Results of the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve were in the range of 0.58-0.60 in the all-variable model and 0.60-0.75 in the select model. The specificities were more than 0.90 and higher than those in existing scoring systems, but the sensitivities were lower. Three ML models based on demographics and routine laboratory variables did not provide reliable performance. This is possibly the first study that has attempted to establish a better predictive model. Additional biomarkers are probably needed to generate an effective prediction model.

The role of age-specific N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide cutoff values in predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The prediction of resistance to intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) is currently still one of the main research areas in Kawasaki disease (KD). Several studies have reported on the use of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-ProBNP) to this end. However, considering the age-dependency of NT-ProBNP levels, age- specific NT-ProBNP cutoff levels to predict IVIG resistance in KD might be more precise and should be evaluated.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study with standardized data collection involving 393 KD patients aged 1 month to 125 months was conducted between June 2015 and April 2018. The demographic characteristics, clinical manifestations and laboratory data were compared between the patients responding to initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG-response group) and those who did not (IVIG-resistance group). We further distinguished four subgroups according to patients' age (< 1 year, 1-2 years, 2-6 years, > 6 years). The cutoff values of NT-ProBNP for the prediction of IVIG resistance overall and in the subgroups were obtained using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

In all KD patients, the level of NT-ProBNP was significantly higher in the IVIG-resistance compared to the IVIG-response group (P = 0.006). This findings was similar in the subgroups except for patients older than six years. The best cutoff values of NT-ProBNP to predict IVIG resistance were 3755 pg/ml for all KD patients, 3710 pg/ml, 2800 pg/ml, 2480 pg/ml for those aged 2-6 years, 1-2 years and < 1 year, respectively. The corresponding sensitivities were 44.0, 52.2, 50.0 and 75.0%, while the specifities were 84.1, 86.3, 77.9 and 71.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP is a complementary laboratory marker for the prediction of IVIG resistance in KD patients, particularly for those younger than one year. Applying age-specific cutoff values is more precise than one value for all ages.

Inability of Asian risk scoring systems to predict intravenous immunoglobulin resistance and coronary lesions in Kawasaki disease in an Italian cohort

Since resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is associated with coronary lesions (CALs) in Kawasaki disease (KD), it is crucial to identify patients at risk to protect them from coronary involvement. The available risk scores to predict IVIG resistance were developed in Asian populations in whom their effectiveness has been proven, but data on non-Asian children are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the Kobayashi, Egami, and Formosa risk scores to predict IVIG resistance and CALs in Italian patients with KD. A multicenter retrospective analysis involving children with KD diagnosed between 2000 and 2015 was carried out: 257 patients were enrolled (57.9% boys, 89.9% Caucasian); 43 patients were IVIG resistant (16.7%). The scores have low sensitivity and specificity in predicting IVIG resistance: respectively, KS 64% and 62.5%, ES 41.4% and 77.4%, and FS 70.8% and 44.9%. The predictive value of the 3 scores for predicting CALs was also poor.Conclusion: Kobayashi, Egami, and Formosa Scores are ineffective in predicting IVIG resistance and coronary involvement in a predominantly Caucasian cohort. A specific score system for mostly Caucasian children with KD is needed enable the early identification of those at risk for CALs who could benefit from intensified treatment. What is Known: • There are several risk scores developed in the Asian population to early identify patients with KD at risk for immunoglobulin-resistance and thus for coronary lesions. • Data are scarce on their effectiveness in non-Asian children. What is New: • We present a comprehensive analysis of the ability of 3 Asian risk scores in a cohort of mostly Caucasian children to predict immunoglobulin resistance and coronary involvement. • Low sensitivity and specificity of the Asian scores for immunoglobulin-resistance and coronary lesions suggest the need for criteria specific for different ethnicities.

A new model for predicting intravenous immunoglobin-resistant Kawasaki disease in Chongqing: a retrospective study on 5277 patients

Accurate evaluation of individual risk of intravenous immunoglobin (IVIG)-resistance is critical for adopting regimens for the first treatment and prevention of coronary artery lesions (CALs) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD).

METHODS

The KD patients hospitalized in Chongqing Children's Hospital, in west China, from October 2007 to December 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Data were collected and compared between IVIG-resistant group and IVIG-responsive group. The independent risk factors were determined using multivariate regression analysis. A new prediction model was built and compared with the previous models.

RESULTS

A total of 5277 subjects were studied and eight independent risk factors were identified including higher red blood cell distribution width (RDW), lower platelet count (PLT), lower percentage of lymphocyte (P-LYM), higher total bile acid (TBA), lower albumin, lower serum sodium level, higher degree of CALs (D-CALs) and younger age. The new predictive model showed an AUC of 0.74, sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 59%. For individual's risk probability of IVIG-resistance, an equation was given.

CONCLUSIONS

IVIG-resistance could be predicted by RDW, PLT, P-LYM, TBA, albumin, serum sodium level, D-CALs and age. The new model appeared to be superior to those previous models for KD population in Chongqing city.

Failure to Predict High-risk Kawasaki Disease Patients in a Population-based Study Cohort in Germany

BACKGROUND

Diverse scores on high-risk Kawasaki disease (KD) patients have proven a good prognostic validity in the Japanese population. However, data on non-Japanese have been inconclusive. Do the Kobayashi, Egami and Sano scores or application of up-to-date statistical methods (Random Forest) predict response to standard intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy and the risk of persistent coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) in patients with KD in a mainly Caucasian population in Germany?

METHODS

Data on 442 children (German population-based survey, 2013 and 2014) were used to assess the prognostic validity of the Kobayashi, Egami and Sano scores for being refractory to IVIG treatment and for predicting the risk of persistent CAA. Additionally, an up-to-date statistical approach (Random Forest) was applied to identify a potentially more valid score.

RESULTS

A total of 301 children were eligible for assessment of their response to IVIG treatment. Among those, 177 children were followed-up for 1 year to identify persistent CAA. Although all scores were significantly associated with being refractory to IVIG (relative risk range between 2.32 and 3.73), the prognostic properties were low (likelihood ratio positive: 1.83-4.57; sensitivity in the range of 0.28-0.53). None of the scores was a significant predictor of CAA 1 year after acute illness. Application of statistical analysis such as Random Forest did not yield a more valid score.

CONCLUSIONS

None of the available scores appears to be appropriate for identifying high-risk Caucasian children with KD who might need intensified therapy.

Efficacy of Four Scoring Systems in Predicting Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Children with Kawasaki Disease in a Children's Hospital in Beijing, North China

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive efficacies of 4 existing scoring systems for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in Kawasaki disease (KD) in hospitalized children with KD in a children's hospital affiliated with the Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China.

STUDY DESIGN

We retrospectively analyzed 1569 children with KD treated at our children's hospital between January 2010 and December 2015. Age, sex, clinical manifestations, and pretreatment hematologic indicators were recorded. Scores were assigned using 4 existing scoring systems: Egami, Kobayashi, San Diego, and Formosa. A 4-case table test was used to determine prediction efficacies.

RESULTS

There were 63 IVIG-resistant cases (41 males, 22 females; average age, 2.5 years). Nine cases were classified as high risk for IVIG resistance by the Egami system, and this system had a sensitivity of 14% and a specificity of 86%. Ten cases had Kobayashi high-risk scores, and this system had a sensitivity of 16% and a specificity of 85%. The San Diego system assigned 60 cases as high-risk, and had a sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 3%. Finally, 27 cases had Formosa scores in the high-risk category, and this system had a sensitivity of 43% and a specificity of 47%.

CONCLUSIONS

None of the evaluated systems for assessing the risk for IVIG resistance displayed the combination of sensitivity and specificity necessary for screening. Our analyses show that the 4 scoring systems have limited utility in predicting IVIG resistance among patients with KD in our population.

Giant aneurysms: A gender-specific complication of Kawasaki disease?

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a pediatric vasculitis of unknown origin. Its main complication is the development of coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) with giant CAA at the end of the spectrum.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we evaluated the association between patient characteristics and the development of giant CAA based on z-scores. Multivariable, multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with giant CAA.

RESULTS

A total of 301 KD patients, comprising 216 patients without enlargement, 45 with small-sized, 19 with medium-sized, and 21 with giant CAA with all echocardiographies at our center were retrospectively included. Remarkably, 95% of patients with giant CAA were boys. In addition to 'no/late intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment', 'male gender' (OR 16.23, 95% CI 1.88-140.13), 'age<1 year' (OR 7.49, 95% CI 2.29-24.46), and 'IVIG re-treatment (9.79, 95% CI 2.79-34.37)' were significantly associated with an increased risk of giant CAA, with patients without enlargement as reference. Compared to patients with medium-sized CAA, 'IVIG re-treatment' was significantly associated with giant CAA. The majority of giant CAA continued to increase in size during the first 40 days.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified risk factors associated with an increased risk of giant CAA. The difference in variables between the giant CAA group and the other CAA subgroups suggests a separation between patients with the treatment-resistant giant CAA and the other IVIG-responsive patients, in which gender may be factored as a most relevant genetic trait. The increase in size during the first 2 months indicates the need for repeated echocardiography.

Dissecting Kawasaki disease: a state-of-the-art review

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a pediatric vasculitis with coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) as its main complication. The diagnosis is based on the presence of persistent fever and clinical features including exanthema, lymphadenopathy, conjunctival injection, and changes to the mucosae and extremities. Although the etiology remains unknown, the current consensus is that it is likely caused by an (infectious) trigger initiating an abnormal immune response in genetically predisposed children. Treatment consists of high dose intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and is directed at preventing the development of CAA. Unfortunately, 10-20% of all patients fail to respond to IVIG and these children need additional anti-inflammatory treatment. Coronary artery lesions are diagnosed by echocardiography in the acute and subacute phases. Both absolute arterial diameters and z-scores, adjusted for height and weight, are used as criteria for CAA. Close monitoring of CAA is important as ischemic symptoms or myocardial infarction due to thrombosis or stenosis can occur. These complications are most likely to arise in the largest, so-called giant CAA. Apart from the presence of CAA, it is unclear whether KD causes an increased cardiovascular risk due to the vasculitis itself.

CONCLUSION

Many aspects of KD remain unknown, although there is growing knowledge on the etiology, treatment, and development and classification of CAA. Since children with previous KD are entering adulthood, long-term follow-up is increasingly important. What is known: • Kawasaki disease (KD) is a pediatric vasculitis with coronary artery damage as its main complication. • Although KD approaches its 50th birthday since its first description, many aspects of the disease remain poorly understood. What is new: • In recent years, multiple genetic candidate pathways involved in KD have been identified, with recently promising information about the ITPKC pathway. • As increasing numbers of KD patients are reaching adulthood, increasing information is available about the long-term consequences of coronary artery damage and broader cardiovascular risk.