Utility of the EORTC risk tables and CUETO scoring model for predicting recurrence and progression in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients treated with routine second transurethral resection

Prediction for recurrent non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) has a high recurrence rate, which places a significant burden on both patients and the healthcare system. Hence, it holds significant importance to predict the recurrence risk following treatment for individuals diagnosed with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). As new generation technologies continue to emerge, an increasing number of recurrence risk prediction tools are being developed and discovered. This article provides an overview of the primary recurrence risk prediction tools currently available, including the liquid biopsy, tissue biopsy, and risk prediction tables. Each of these tools is described in detail and illustrated with relevant examples. Furthermore, we conduct an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these tools. This article aims to enhance the reader's understanding of the current progress in recurrence prediction tools and encourage their practical utilization in the fields of precision medicine and public health.

Predicting Recurrence and Progression in Patients with Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: Systematic Review on the Performance of Risk Stratification Models

BACKGROUND

Several classifications have been reported to stratify non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) in risk groups according to the probability of recurrence and progression.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the current evidence regarding risk stratification of NMIBC.

METHODS

The systematic review was performed in accordance with the PRISMA statement. Studies providing data on development and/or external validation cohorts of models and risk stratification tables for recurrence and/or progression for patients with NMIBC, reporting at least one discrimination measure (AUC or C-Index) were included.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies involving 22,737 patients were included. Six classifications were identified, three of them were predictive models (EORTC, CUETO, EAU 2021) and three were based on expert opinion (EAU 2020, AUA, NCCN). A high risk of bias was present in the majority of the studies. Certain heterogenicity was found among the studies regarding adjuvant therapy, postoperative instillation or second resection. The definition of oncological outcomes was not standardized in the included studies. CUETO and EORTC scoring systems are the most validated. In general, validations showed a poor discrimination capability to predict recurrence, slightly better for progression. The EAU 2021 model overestimates the risk of progression in patients treated with BCG. Carcinoma in situ is underrepresented in all the studies analyzed.

CONCLUSIONS

The existing classifications show poor discrimination capability for recurrence and possibly helpful discrimination capability for progression in NMIBC patients. These results highlight the unmet need to develop novel accurate risk models for patients with NMIBC, which could be improved with the combination of clinicopathological and molecular information.

Utility of a Molecular Signature for Predicting Recurrence and Progression in Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer Patients: Comparison with the EORTC, CUETO and 2021 EAU Risk Groups

To evaluate the utility of different risk assessments in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) patients, a total of 178 NMIBC patients from Chungbuk National University Hospital (CBNUH) were enrolled, and the predictive value of the molecular signature-based subtype predictor (MSP888) and risk calculators based on clinicopathological factors (EORTC, CUETO and 2021 EAU risk scores) was compared. Of the 178 patients, 49 were newly analyzed by the RNA-sequencing, and their MSP888 subtype was evaluated. The ability of the EORTC, MSP888 and two molecular subtyping systems of bladder cancer (Lund and UROMOL subtypes) to predict progression of 460 NMIBC patients from the UROMOL project was assessed. Cox regression analyses showed that the MSP888 was an independent predictor of NMIBC progression in the CBNUH cohort (p = 0.043). Particularly in patients without an intravesical BCG immunotherapy, MSP888 significantly linked with risk of disease recurrence and progression (both p < 0.05). However, the EORTC, CUETO and 2021 EAU risk scores showed disappointing results with respect to estimating the NMIBC prognosis. In the UROMOL cohort, the MSP888, Lund and UROMOL subtypes demonstrated a similar capacity to predict NMIBC progression (all p < 0.05). Conclusively, the MSP888 is favorable for stratifying patients to facilitate optimal treatment.

Association of smoking status and recurrence of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer among patients managed with blue light cystoscopy

PURPOSE

Smoking has a strong causal association with bladder cancer but the relationship with recurrence is not well established. We sought to assess the association of smoking status on recurrence of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) in a contemporary cohort of patients with predominantly high-risk, recurrent NMIBC managed with photodynamic enhanced cystoscopy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of patients with NMIBC included in a multi-institutional registry. Our primary exposure of interest was smoking status. Our primary outcome was first recurrence of NMIBC. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate recurrence free probabilities and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the impact of smoking status on recurrence free survival.

RESULTS

Our analytic cohort included 723 adults with bladder cancer, 11.5% with primary NMIBC and 88.5% with recurrent NMIBC. The majority of patients were white, male, and had high-risk NMIBC (72.6%). 52.6% of included patients were former smokers and 12.7% were current smokers. During the three-year study period, there was a NMIBC recurrence in 259 of the 723 patients (35.8%). The 1- and 3-year probability of recurrence was 19% and 44%, respectively. The grade and stage of recurrences were 28.9% LG Ta, 34.4% HG Ta, 15.8% pure CIS, 0.3% LG T1, 15.4% HG T1, and 5.4% unknown. After adjustment for a priori clinical and demographic factors, smoking status had no significant association with recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Smoking status was not significantly association with recurrence in a study of patients with predominantly high-risk recurrent NMIBC managed with photodynamic enhanced cystoscopy.

Diabetes Mellitus and Obesity as Risk Factors for Bladder Cancer Prognosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Urinary bladder carcinoma is common in developed settings, and prognosis may be impacted by lifestyle factors such as excess body weight and diabetes mellitus. The present meta-analysis aimed to systematically collate and analyze evidence on the impact of diabetes and excess BMI on bladder cancer outcomes.

METHODS

PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases were screened for relevant studies that examined the association between bladder cancer outcomes and diabetes and/or excess body weight. The primary outcomes for this study were mortality (both all-cause and cancer-specific), risk of cancer progression, and recurrence. Strength of association was presented in the form of pooled adjusted hazard ratios (HR). Statistical analysis was performed using STATA version 16.0.

RESULTS

Twenty-five articles met inclusion criteria. Nine of these examined diabetes mellitus while 16 studied body mass index. All studies were retrospective. Diabetic patients had significantly higher risk for all-cause mortality (HR 1.24, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.44, n=3), cancer specific mortality (HR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.29, 2.16, n=7), disease progression (HR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.06, n=8), and recurrence (HR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.32, 1.48, n=8) compared to non-diabetics. No statistically significant risk change for all-cause mortality, cancer specific mortality, disease progression, and recurrence was found for overweight patients. However, obese individuals were at higher risk for disease progression (HR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.41, 2.50, n=3) and recurrence (HR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.40, n=7) compared to normal BMI patients.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that diabetes and excess body weight negatively influences bladder cancer prognosis and outcome. The increased risk of mortality due to diabetes was similar to that in the general population. Since retrospective studies are potentially susceptible to bias, future prospective studies on this subject are required.

Validation of EORTC, CUETO, and EAU risk stratification in prediction of recurrence, progression, and death of patients with initially non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC): A cohort analysis

BRIEF DESCRIPTION

The results demonstrate that the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) scale provides the best recurrence and progression prediction in comparison with European Association of Urology (EAU) and Club Urologico Espanol de Tratamiento Oncologico (CUETO) risk scores among a mixed population of patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder who were treated with, or without, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) and without any immediate postoperative chemotherapy. The study highlights the role of tumor diameter and extent in transition prediction. This retrospective cohort analysis of 322 patients with newly diagnosed non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) assesses the concordance and accuracy of predicting recurrence and progression by EAU-recommended tools (EAU risk groups, EORTC, and CUETO). One-year and five-year c-indices ranged from 0.55 to 0.66 for recurrence and from 0.72 to 0.82 for progression. AUCROC of predictions ranged from 0.46 for 1-year recurrence risk based on CUETO groups, to 0.82 for 1-year progression risk based on EAU risk groups. Diameter (HR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.39-2.61) and tumor extent (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.01-1.46 for recurrence; HR: 3.1; 95% CI: 1.40-6.87 for progression) were shown to be significant predictors in multistate analysis. Lower accuracy of prediction was observed for patients treated with BCG maintenance immunotherapy. The EORTC model (overall c-index c = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.61-0.68) was superior to the EAU (P = .035; .62; 95% CI: 0.59-0.66) and CUETO (P < .001; c = 0.53; 95% CI: 0.50-0.56) models in predicting recurrence. The EORTC model (c = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.77-0.86) also performed better than CUETO (P = .008; c = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.66-0.81) but there was no sufficient evidence that it performed better than EAU (P = .572; c = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.77-0.84) for predicting progression. EORTC and CUETO gave similar predictions for progression in BCG-treated EAU high-risk patients (P = .48). We share anonymized individual patient data. In conclusion, despite moderate accuracy, EORTC provided the best recurrence and progression prediction for a mixed population of patients treated with, or without BCG, and without immediate postoperative chemotherapy.

Toward noninvasive follow-up of low-risk bladder cancer - Rationale and concept of the UroFollow trial

BACKGROUND

Follow-up recommendations for patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) are largely based upon expert opinion. A growing body of evidence suggests that current follow-up strategies for bladder cancer patients with low and intermediate risk represent overdiagnosis and may lead to overtreatment. The goal of this study is to explore the options of a noninvasive follow-up in patients with pTa G1-2/low-grade NMIBC.

METHODS

The risks and options for a urine marker-guided, noninvasive follow-up of patients with pTa G1-2/low-grade NMIBC were defined and the study design for a prospective randomized trial (UroFollow) was developed based upon the current literature.

RESULTS

The investigators postulated that follow-up of patients with pTa G1-2/low-grade NMIBC requires a high sensitivity of urinary tumor markers. However, data from prospective studies with prediagnostic urine samples are scarce, even for approved markers, and cross-sectional studies with symptomatic patients overestimate the sensitivity. So far, cell-based markers (e.g., uCyt+ and UroVysion) in urine appeared to have higher sensitivities and specificities in low-grade NMIBC than urine cytology and markers analyzing soluble tumor-associated antigens. Marker panels are more sensitive than single-marker approaches at the expense of a lower specificity. Given a prospective randomized comparison with a marker sensitivity of 80% compared to usual care with cystoscopy, the sample size calculation yielded that 62 to 185 patients under study per arm are needed depending on different recurrence rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Based upon these findings the UroFollow trial has been designed as a prospective randomized study comparing a noninvasive marker-based (UroVysion, NMP22, urine cytology, and ultrasound) follow-up with the current standard of care over a period of 3 years.

Traditional Classification and Novel Subtyping Systems for Bladder Cancer

Bladder cancer is the most common tumor in the urinary system, with approximately 420,000 new cases and 160,000 deaths per year. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EOTRC) classifies non-muscular invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups based on a comprehensive analysis of NMIBC pathological parameters and the risk of recurrence and progression to muscular invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). Traditional classification systems are based on pathologic grading, staging systems, and clinical prognosis. However, the pathological parameters of the tumor cannot fully reflect the “intrinsic characteristics” of bladder cancer, and tumors with a similar pathology exhibit different biological behaviors. Furthermore, although the traditional classification system cannot accurately predict the risk of recurrence or the progression of bladder cancer patients (BCs) individually, this method is widely used in clinical practice because of its convenient operation. With the development of sequencing and other technologies, the genetics-based molecular subtyping of bladder cancer has become increasingly studied. Compared with the traditional classification system, it provides more abundant tumor biological information and is expected to assist or even replace the traditional typing system in the future.

Salvage Therapies for Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: Who Will Respond to Bacillus Calmette-Guérin? Predictors and Nomograms

The best predictors of response to intravesical immunotherapy are tumor grade and stage, tumor recurrence pattern, nomograms, panels of urinary cytokines, and fluorescent in situ hybridization patterns of urine cytology examinations. Future investigations on predictors of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin efficacy are needed to better select those patients who will really benefit from a conservative treatment. Hardly any of the proposed nomograms were designed to precisely predict the outcome of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy. A new nomogram for NMIBC recurrence and progression based on all non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer subgroups would include factors already proven in cancer prognosis and prediction.