Dose assessment for the Metlino and Muslyumovo populations who lived along the Techa river from 1949 to 1954

External dose reconstruction at the shore of the Metlinsky Pond in the former village of Metlino (Techa River, Russia) based on environmental surveys, luminescence measurements and radiation transport modelling

The cohorts of people formerly living at the Techa River shoreline in the Southern Urals, Russia, are widely studied cohorts for the investigation of low-dose radiation effects to human health. The nuclear facilities of the Mayak Production Association (PA) discharged their radioactive effluents into the nearby Techa River, especially in the first years of operation. Health status of cohort member data is constantly being improved and updated. Consequently, there is a need to also improve and verify the underlying dosimetry, which gives information about the dose of cohort members. For the Techa River population, the dosimetry is handled in the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). The present work shows results of a feasibility study to validate the TRDS at the location of the village of Metlino, a village just 7 km downstream from the Mayak PA. For this settlement there were two sources of external exposure, the contaminated banks of the Techa River and the contaminated shoreline of the nearby Metlinsky Pond. In the present study the north-western wall of a granary was used as a dose archive to validate dose estimates. Measurements of doses in brick accumulated over many decades and measurements of the current dose rate in bricks were combined with dose rate measurements in air above ground in front of the granary, historical contamination data and Monte-Carlo simulations. Air kerma estimates for 1949-1956 significantly different from zero could not be reconstructed for the Metlinsky Pond shoreline near the granary, but an upper dose limit could be estimated. Implications for TRDS-2016 are discussed.

Reconstruction of the contamination of the Techa River in 1949-1951 as a result of releases from the "Mayak" Production Association

More accurate reconstruction of the radioactive contamination of the Techa River system in 1949-1951 has been made on the basis of refined data on the amounts and the rate of discharge of radionuclides into the Techa River from the Mayak Production Association; this has led to the development of a modified Techa River model that describes the transport of radionuclides through the up-river ponds and along the Techa River and deposition of radionuclides in the river-bottom sediments and flooded areas. The refined Techa River source-term data define more precisely the time-dependent rates of release and radionuclide composition of the releases that occurred during 1949-1951. The Techa River model takes into account the time-dependent characteristics of the releases and considers (a) the transport of radionuclides adsorbed on solid particles originally contained in the discharges or originating in the up-river ponds as a result of stirring up of contaminated bottom sediments and (b) the transport of radionuclides in soluble form. The output of the Techa River model provides concentrations of all source-term radionuclides in the river water, bottom sediments, and floodplain soils at different distances from the site of radioactive releases for the period of major contamination in 1950-1951. The outputs of the model show good agreement with historical measurements of water and sediment contamination. In addition, the river-model output for (90)Sr concentration in the river water is harmonized with retrospective estimates derived from the measurements of (90)Sr in the residents of the Techa Riverside villages. Modeled contamination of the floodplain soils by (137)Cs is shown to be in agreement with the values reconstructed from late measurements of this radionuclide. Reconstructed estimates of the Techa River contamination are being used for the quantification of internal and external doses received by residents of the Techa Riverside communities.

Solid cancer incidence and low-dose-rate radiation exposures in the Techa River cohort: 1956 2002

BACKGROUND

This is the first analysis of solid cancer incidence in the Techa River cohort, a general population of men and women of all ages who received chronic low-dose rate exposures from environmental radiation releases associated with the Soviet nuclear weapons programme. This cohort provides one of the few opportunities to evaluate long-term human health risks from low-dose radiation exposures.

METHODS

Cancer incidence rates in this cohort were analysed using excess relative risk (ERR) models. The analyses make use of individualized dose estimates that take into account residence history, age and other factors. Cases are identified on the basis of continuing, active follow-up of mortality and cancer incidence.

RESULTS

Based on 1836 solid cancer cases with 446 588 person years accrued over 47 years of follow-up, solid cancer incidence rates were found to increase with dose and about 3% of the cases were attributable to radiation exposure. The ERR was 1.0/Gy (P = 0.004 95% CI (0.3; 1.9) in a linear dose-response model. There was no significant non-linearity in the dose response and no indication of effect modification by gender, ethnicity, attained age or age at first exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

The Techa River cohort provides strong evidence that low-dose, low-dose rate exposures lead to significant increases in solid cancer risks that appear to be linear in dose. The results do not suggest that risks associated with low-dose rate exposures are less than those seen following acute exposures such as were received by atomic bomb survivors.

Minisatellite germline mutation rate in the Techa River population

Germline mutation at eight minisatellite loci has been studied among the irradiated families from the Techa River population and non-exposed families from the rural area of the Chelyabinsk and Kurgan Oblasts. The groups were matched by ethnicity, parental age, occupation and smoking habit. A statistically significant 1.7-fold increase in mutation rate was found in the germline of irradiated fathers, whereas maternal germline mutation rate in the exposed families was not elevated. Most of the minisatellite loci showed an elevated paternal mutation rate in the exposed group, indicating a generalised increase in minisatellite germline mutation rate in the Techa River population. These data suggest that the elevated minisatellite mutation rate can be attributed to radioactive exposure. The spectra of paternal mutation seen in the unexposed and exposed families were indistinguishable.

Report from the techa river dosimetry review workshop held on 8-10 December 2003 at The State Research Centre Institute of Biophysics, Moscow, Russia

Large releases of fission products into the Techa River, in the Southern Urals, occurred in 1950 and 1951, during the early years of operation of the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA), which produced plutonium for nuclear weapons. Increases of leukemia and of solid cancers with radiation dose have been noted in the population of about 30,000 people who lived in the settlements downstream of the site of the radioactive releases; that population has been studied for several decades by Russian scientists, notably in the framework of cooperation with American and European scientists. The radiation doses are currently estimated by means of the Techa River Dosimetry System-2000 (TRDS-2000). Recently, a scientist from Mayak PA has suggested in several publications that the doses calculated using TRDS-2000 might be underestimated substantially. A special international Workshop, held in Moscow on 8-10 December 2003, aimed to resolve some of the pressing issues related to the determination of the external and internal doses received by the Techa River population and to give recommendations on the further development of methodologies used for dose reconstruction. The authors of this article were selected by the organizers of the Workshop to draw the conclusions of the meeting. They express the view that, while the dose reconstruction system TRDS-2000 is basically sound, additional work is needed and the results of any epidemiological studies making use of TRDS-2000 should be qualified as preliminary, pending resolution of several issues. The most important of these issues is the re-evaluation of the activities released, using additional information that could be obtained with the help of Mayak experts. Other specific suggestions aiming to improve the dose reconstruction methodology for the Techa River cohort, i.e., continued measurements of accumulated dose in environmental samples and human tissues, validation of external dose estimates with thermoluminescence measurements of bricks and with electron paramagnetic resonance measurements of teeth, estimation of individual doses instead of group doses, detailed account of the contributions to dose of medical examinations and of other releases from the Mayak complex, and careful assessment of the uncertainties, were made by the meeting participants.

Protracted radiation exposure and cancer mortality in the Techa River Cohort

In the 1950s many thousands of people living in rural villages on the Techa River received protracted internal and external exposures to ionizing radiation from the release of radioactive material from the Mayak plutonium production complex. The Extended Techa River Cohort includes 29,873 people born before 1950 who lived near the river sometime between 1950 and 1960. Vital status and cause of death are known for most cohort members. Individualized dose estimates have been computed using the Techa River Dosimetry System 2000. The analyses provide strong evidence of long-term carcinogenic effects of protracted low-dose-rate exposures; however, the risk estimates must be interpreted with caution because of uncertainties in the dose estimates. We provide preliminary radiation risk estimates for cancer mortality based on 1,842 solid cancer deaths (excluding bone cancer) and 61 deaths from leukemia. The excess relative risk per gray for solid cancer is 0.92 (95% CI 0.2; 1.7), while those for leukemia, including and excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, are 4.2 (CI 95% 1.2; 13) and 6.5 (CI 95% 1.8; 24), respectively. It is estimated that about 2.5% of the solid cancer deaths and 63% of the leukemia deaths are associated with the radiation exposure.

External radiation exposure of residents living close to the Mayak facility: main sources, dose estimates, and comparison with earlier assessments

In 1951 and 1952 specialists from the Mayak production association investigated the radiological situation in the area of the Metlinski reservoir that was located 5-7 km from the site of liquid radioactive waste (LRW) discharge. Based on their measurements of both the specific radioactivity in the water and the dose-rate above the water surface, the gamma-field above the water surface in 1951 was demonstrated to be mainly due to (95)Zr+(95)Nb. The dose-rate at the shore of the reservoir was calculated for the period 1949-1951. In November and December 1951, the gamma-field at the shore was mainly due to (140)Ba+(140)La. For the period 1949-1951, the external exposure of the Metlino population due to the decay of these radionuclides was about 200 R (2 Sv), most of the dose having been produced in 1951. The contribution of (137)Cs to external doses did at that time probably not exceed a fraction of several percent. This finding is in contradiction to the assumptions made in the most recent TRDS-2000 system that was developed to reconstruct the doses to the residents of the Techa river. The results presented here demonstrate that the reconstruction of external doses received by the Metlino population as well as by the Techa river residents can be improved for the most critical period between 1949 and 1954.