A Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment predicts short- and long-term all-cause mortality in older hospitalized patients with transient ischemic attack

Multidimensional frailty as a predictor of mortality among older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review examined studies that assessed the relationship between mortality risk and multidimensional frailty. The pooled risk of mortality was estimated via a meta-analysis.

DESIGN

A systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic search for potentially eligible literature was conducted on January 2, 2023, using five electronic databases: Web of Science, CINAHL, PubMed, the Cochrane Library and Embase. This review included cohort or longitudinal studies examining the association between multidimensional frailty/prefrailty and mortality in older adults. The quality of the included studies was evaluated via the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Two independent researchers identified eligible studies and extracted the data. The data analyses were performed via STATA, version 15.0.

RESULTS

A total of 24 studies with 34,664 participants were included. The 24 studies were published between 2012 and 2022, with most studies being performed in Italy (n = 16). The sample sizes of the included studies ranged from 71 to 12,020. Most included studies were conducted in hospital settings. The QUIPS bias assessment results showed that the most frequent source of potential bias was study confounding. The meta-analysis results showed that multidimensional frailty was a significant predictor of mortality (HR = 5.48, 95% CI = 3.91-7.67, p < 0.001). In addition, multidimensional prefrailty was also a significant predictor of mortality (HR = 2.56, 95% CI = 2.17-3.02, p < 0.001). The results of the meta-analysis using the ORs revealed that multidimensional frailty was a risk factor for mortality in older people (OR = 4.59, 95% CI = 2.47-8.55, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This systematic review of the relationship between multidimensional frailty and mortality found that multidimensional frailty/prefrailty is a predictor of mortality. More studies should be conducted in community dwelling populations and nursing homes.

Application of machine learning approaches in predicting clinical outcomes in older adults - a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Machine learning-based prediction models have the potential to have a considerable positive impact on geriatric care.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analyses.

PARTICIPANTS

Older adults (≥ 65 years) in any setting.

INTERVENTION

Machine learning models for predicting clinical outcomes in older adults were evaluated. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted in two grouped cohorts, where the predictive models were compared based on their performance in predicting mortality i) under and including 6 months ii) over 6 months.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Studies were grouped into two groups by the clinical outcome, and the models were compared based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve metric.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven studies that satisfied the systematic review criteria were appraised, and eight studies predicting a mortality outcome were included in the meta-analyses. We could only pool studies by mortality as there were inconsistent definitions and sparse data to pool studies for other clinical outcomes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from the meta-analysis yielded a summary estimate of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76 - 0.84) for mortality within 6 months and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76 - 0.86) for mortality over 6 months, signifying good discriminatory power.

CONCLUSION

The meta-analysis indicates that machine learning models display good discriminatory power in predicting mortality. However, more large-scale validation studies are necessary. As electronic healthcare databases grow larger and more comprehensive, the available computational power increases and machine learning models become more sophisticated; there should be an effort to integrate these models into a larger research setting to predict various clinical outcomes.

High Prevalence of Geriatric Conditions Among Older Adults With Cardiovascular Disease

As the population ages, the global cardiovascular disease burden will continue to increase, particularly among older adults. Increases in life expectancy and better cardiovascular care have significantly reshaped the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease and have created new patient profiles. The combination of older age, multiple comorbidities, polypharmacy, frailty, and adverse noncardiovascular outcomes is challenging our routine clinical practice in this field. In this review, we examine noncardiovascular factors that statistically interact in a relevant way with health status and quality of life in older people with cardiovascular disease. We focused on specific geriatric conditions (multimorbidity, polypharmacy, geriatric syndromes, and frailty) that are responsible for a major risk of functional decline and have an important impact on the overall prognosis in this patient population.

Premorbid frailty predicts short- and long-term outcomes of reperfusion treatment in acute stroke

BACKGROUND

Frailty is the most important short- and long-term predictor of disability in the elderly and, thus, might influence the clinical outcome of acute treatment of stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether frailty predicts short- and long-term all-cause mortality and neurological recovery in elderly patients who underwent reperfusion acute treatment of stroke.

METHODS

The study included consecutive patients older than 65 years who underwent reperfusion treatment in a single stroke unit from 2015 to 2016. Predictors of stroke outcomes were assessed including demographics, baseline NIHSS, time to needle, treatment and medical complications. Premorbid frailty was assessed with a comprehensive geriatric assessment including functional, nutritional, cognitive, social and comorbidities status. At three and twelve months, all-cause death and clinical recovery (using modified Rankin scale, mRS) were evaluated.

RESULTS

One-hundred and two patients who underwent acute reperfusion treatment for stroke entered the study (mean age 77.5, 65-94 years). Frailty was diagnosed in 32 out of 102 patients and associated with older age (p = 0.001) but no differences in baseline NIHSS score, vascular risk profile or treatment management strategy. Frailty status was associated with worse improvement at 24 h and higher in-hospital mortality. At follow-up, frail patients showed poorer survival at 3 (25% vs 3%, p = 0.008) and 12 (38% vs 7%, p = 0.001) months. Frailty was the best predictor of neurological recovery at one year follow-up (mRS 3.2 ± 1.9 vs 1.9 ± 1.9).

DISCUSSION

Frailty is an important predictor of efficacy of acute treatment of stroke beyond classical predictors of stroke outcomes. Larger longitudinal studies are, thus, warranted to evaluate the risk-benefit of reperfusion treatment in the growing elderly frail population.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index and Outcomes in Older Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Survival of the Fittest

Selecting patients with a high chance of endured benefit from transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is becoming relevant with changing indications and increasing number of TAVI being performed. The aim of our study was to investigate the association of the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) on survival. The TAVI Care & Cure program is a prospective, observational registry of patients referred for TAVI at the Erasmus MC University Medical Center. Consecutive patients who underwent a complete CGA and TAVI were included. CGA components were used to calculate the MPI score. The impact of the MPI score on survival was evaluated using Cox regression. Furthermore, 376 patients were included, 143 (38.0%) patients belonged to the MPI-1 group and 233 (61.9%) patients to the MPI-2–3 group. After 3 years, 14.9% of the patients in the MPI-1 group and 30.5% of the patients in the MPI-2–3 group died (p = 0.001). Patients in MPI-1 had increased chances of overall survival in comparison with patients in MPI group 2–3 Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.57, (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.33–0.98)). In this study we found that the MPI tool could be useful to assess frailty and to predict which patient will have a higher chance of enduring benefit from a TAVI procedure.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) in elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Management of elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is challenging due to lack of knowledge about the link between fragility, outcomes and interventional procedures.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to establish the prognostic role of the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) in elderly with AMI.

METHODS

A total of 241 patients ≥ 65 years old with AMI were continuously enrolled in this prospective study and divided into three groups according to the MPI score. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were 6-month mortality and rate of adverse events.

RESULTS

In-hospital overall mortality rate was higher in MPI-3 (p = 0.009). Patients of MPI-3 had a significantly higher mortality rate regarding the primary endpoint with 30-day survival of 78.9%, compared to 97.4% and 97.2%, in MPI-1, MPI-2 (p < 0.001), respectively. The survival rate progressively decreased in the three MPI classes of risk with a 6-month survival of 96.5%, 96.3%, 73.7% in groups MPI-1, MPI-2, and MPI-3 (p < 0.001). Longer length of in-hospital stay was observed in MPI-3 group. In-hospital complications were more frequent in higher MPI score.

DISCUSSION

Our findings are in agreement with the results of other studies that evaluated the risk of in-hospital complications and mortality in older patients. In our "real-world" population of elderly hospitalized for AMI we observed poorer outcomes in patients belonged to higher MPI groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In the setting of AMI, MPI may be very useful in the daily clinical practice to manage older patients and predict the risk of in-hospital and follow-up complications.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) in elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Management of elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is challenging due to lack of knowledge about the link between fragility, outcomes and interventional procedures.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to establish the prognostic role of the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) in elderly with AMI.

METHODS

A total of 241 patients ≥ 65 years old with AMI were continuously enrolled in this prospective study and divided into three groups according to the MPI score. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were 6-month mortality and rate of adverse events.

RESULTS

In-hospital overall mortality rate was higher in MPI-3 (p = 0.009). Patients of MPI-3 had a significantly higher mortality rate regarding the primary endpoint with 30-day survival of 78.9%, compared to 97.4% and 97.2%, in MPI-1, MPI-2 (p < 0.001), respectively. The survival rate progressively decreased in the three MPI classes of risk with a 6-month survival of 96.5%, 96.3%, 73.7% in groups MPI-1, MPI-2, and MPI-3 (p < 0.001). Longer length of in-hospital stay was observed in MPI-3 group. In-hospital complications were more frequent in higher MPI score.

DISCUSSION

Our findings are in agreement with the results of other studies that evaluated the risk of in-hospital complications and mortality in older patients. In our "real-world" population of elderly hospitalized for AMI we observed poorer outcomes in patients belonged to higher MPI groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In the setting of AMI, MPI may be very useful in the daily clinical practice to manage older patients and predict the risk of in-hospital and follow-up complications.

Multidimensional frailty increases cardiovascular risk in older people: An 8-year longitudinal cohort study in the Osteoarthritis Initiative

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the most important cause of mortality and an important cause of disability. Frailty seems to be associated with higher cardiovascular risk, but limited research has been done using a multidimensional approach to frailty. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate whether the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI), based on comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), is associated with CVD risk in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) study.

METHODS

Community-dwellers affected by knee OA or at high risk for this condition were followed for 8 years. A standardized CGA including information on functional, nutritional, mood, comorbidities, medications, quality of life and co-habitation status was used to calculate a modified version of the MPI (range 0-1), with higher scores representing greater risk of mortality. CVDs were recorded using self-reported information. Logistic regression analyses, adjusting for potential confounders, were conducted.

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 4211 individuals (mean age 60.8 years, females = 58.6%). People with incident CVD had a significant higher baseline MPI value than those without CVD (0.44 ± 0.17 vs. 0.39 ± 0.17). People with an MPI between 0.34 and 0.66 (OR = 1.31; 95%CI: 1.03-1.67) and over 0.66 (OR = 1.91; 95%CI: 1.26-2.89) experienced a higher risk of CVD (vs. MPI score < 0.34). A 0.10 points increase in the MPI score at baseline was associated with a 1.16 (95%CI: 1.09-1.24) times higher odds for incident CVD.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Higher MPI values at baseline were associated with an increased risk of CVD, reinforcing the importance of CGA in predicting CVD risk in older people.

Association between Multidimensional Prognostic Index and Hospitalization and Mortality among Older Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease on Conservative or on Replacement Therapy

The prevalence of renal disease is constantly increasing in older adults and a prognostic evaluation by a valid tool may play a key role in treatment management. We aimed to assess the association(s) between the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) and both the hospitalization and mortality among older adults with renal disease. Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) (stage 3-5 KDOQI) and on dialysis were considered. Clinical parameters were registered at baseline and after 2 years. In all the patients, the MPI was calculated and divided into grade 0 (low risk), 1 (moderate risk), and 2 (severe risk). Hospitalizations and mortality were recorded during the follow-up and analyzed according to MPI grade. A total of 173 patients, with a median age of 76 years, on conservative (n = 105) and replacement therapy (32 patients on hemodialysis, 36 patients on peritoneal dialysis) were enrolled. Of them, 60 patients were in MPI grade 0, 102 in grade 1, and 11 in grade 2. The median duration of all the hospitalizations was 6 days and the number of deaths was 33. MPI significantly correlated with days of hospitalization (r = 0.801, p < 0.00001) and number of hospitalizations per year (r = 0.808, p < 0.00001), which was higher in MPI grade 2 compared to grade 1 (p < 0.001) and to grade 0 (p < 0.001). We found a significant association between MPI grades and mortality (p < 0.001). Our results indicate that MPI was associated with outcomes in patients with renal disease, suggesting that a multidimensional evaluation should be implemented in this clinical setting.

The impact of oral health on prognosis of older multimorbid inpatients: the 6-month follow up MPI oral health study (MPIOH)

PURPOSE

There is clear evidence for an association between oral health and systemic illnesses, geriatric syndromes, and mortality. Frail and multimorbid older people often suffer from insufficient oral health care, but standardized dental examinations are not routinely performed in clinical settings. The aim of this study was to verify the practicability of in-hospital oral health examinations and to identify their association with patients' prognosis as assessed by means of the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA)-based Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI).

METHODS

One hundred hospitalized patients aged 65 years and older (mean age 76.9 years (SD 6.4); 58.2% male, 41.8% female) underwent a CGA-based MPI calculation at discharge with subdivision into three mortality risk groups (MPI-1, low risk, score 0-0.33; MPI-2, moderate risk, score 0.34-0.66; MPI-3, high risk, score 0.67-1). To identify the current oral health status and the Oral Health-related Quality of Life (OHRQoL), three oral health examinations were performed. Information on survival, the incidence of oral diseases, dental appointments, and treatments up to 6 months after discharge were collected.

RESULTS

All oral health examinations were feasible during hospitalization and were associated with MPI prognosis, even though they were not associated with 6-month mortality. The MPI could not predict the use of dental health care or treatment, as, irrespective of MPI and oral health examinations, dental services were underutilized during follow up.

CONCLUSION

Besides MPI evaluation, oral health examinations should be implemented into an inhospital course to improve clinical decision-making as well as secondary and tertiary prevention of oral health- and related systemic diseases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00013607 (07.02.2019, retrospectively registered).

A multidimensional approach to frailty in older people

Frailty is an important factor determining a higher risk of adverse health outcomes in older adults. Although scientific community in the last two decades put a lot of effort for its definition, to date no consensus was reached on its assessment. The mainstream thinking describes frailty as a loss of physical functions or as accumulation of multiple deficits. Recently, a novel conceptual model of frailty has emerged based on the loss of harmonic interaction between multiple domains (also referred as dimensions) including genetic, biological, functional, cognitive, psychological and socio-economic domain that ultimately lead to homeostatic instability. Therefore, the multidimensional aspects of frailty condition could be captured by the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) and its derived Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI). This instrument has been applied in different clinical settings and in several cohorts of older adults with specific acute and chronic diseases, showing always excellent accuracy in stratifying population according the mortality risk and other negative health outcomes, i.e. hospitalization, institutionalization or admission to homecare services. This MPI "plasticity" provides a single numerical prognostic index which could be helpful in clinical decision making for the management of frail older adults.

Using the Multidimensional Prognostic Index to Predict Clinical Outcomes of Hospitalized Older Persons: A Prospective, Multicenter, International Study

BACKGROUND

Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is useful as a prognostic tool in hospitalized older patients, but our knowledge is derived from retrospective studies. We therefore aimed to evaluate in a multicenter, longitudinal, cohort study whether the MPI at hospital admission is useful to identify groups with different mortality risk and whether MPI at discharge may predict institutionalization, rehospitalization, and use of home care services during 12 months.

METHODS

This longitudinal study, carried out between February 2015 and August 2017, included nine public hospitals in Europe and Australia. A standardized comprehensive geriatric assessment including information on functional, nutritional, cognitive status, risk of pressure sores, comorbidities, medications, and cohabitation status was used to calculate the MPI and to categorize participants in low, moderate, and severe risk of mortality. Data regarding mortality, institutionalization, rehospitalization, and use of home care services were recorded through administrative information.

RESULTS

Altogether, 1,140 hospitalized patients (mean age 84.1 years, women = 60.8%) were included. In the multivariable analysis, compared to patients with low risk group at admission, patients in moderate (odds ratio [OR] = 3.32; 95% CI: 1.79-6.17; p < .001) and severe risk (OR = 10.72, 95% CI: 5.70-20.18, p < .0001) groups were at higher risk of overall mortality. Among the 984 older patients with follow-up data available, those in the severe-risk group experienced a higher risk of overall mortality, institutionalization, rehospitalization, and access to home care services.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of hospitalized older adults, higher MPI values are associated with higher mortality and other negative outcomes. Multidimensional assessment of older people admitted to hospital may facilitate appropriate clinical and postdischarge management.

Using the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) to improve cost-effectiveness of interventions in multimorbid frail older persons: results and final recommendations from the MPI_AGE European Project

MPI_AGE is a European Union co-funded research project aimed to use the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), a validated Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA)-based prognostic tool, to develop predictive rules that guide clinical and management decisions in older people in different European countries. A series of international studies performed in different settings have shown that the MPI is useful to predict mortality and risk of hospitalization in community-dwelling older subjects at population level. Furthermore, studies performed in older people who underwent a CGA before admission to a nursing home or receiving homecare services showed that the MPI successfully identified groups of persons who could benefit, in terms of reduced mortality, of specific therapies such as statins in diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease, anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation and antidementia drugs in cognitive decline. A prospective trial carried out in nine hospitals in Europe and Australia demonstrated that the MPI was able to predict not only in-hospital and long-term mortality, but also institutionalization, re-hospitalization and receiving homecare services during the one-year follow-up after hospital discharge. The project also explored the association between MPI and mortality in hospitalized older patients in need of complex procedures such as transcatheter aortic valve implantation or enteral tube feeding. Evidence from these studies has prompted the MPI_AGE Investigators to formulate recommendations for healthcare providers, policy makers and the general population which may help to improve the cost-effectiveness of appropriate health care interventions for older patients.

Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment in Cardiovascular Disease

Frailty and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are both highly prevalent in older adults. Cardiovascular disease has been identified as the most frequent cause of death, while frailty has been identified as one of geriatric giants characterized by decreased physiological reserves and increased vulnerability. However, the exact pathobiological links between the two conditions have not been fully elucidated. Consequently, we observe a relevant difficulty not only in accurately defining cardiovascular risk in vulnerable elderly patients (and the other way around), but also a lack of consensus regarding CVD management in the very old. Nowadays, considering the enormous technical innovation, many elderly patients, if appropriately selected, could be eligible even for the most complex treatments, including invasive cardiological procedures. Identification of frail patients at risk of negative outcomes can allow the customization of therapeutic interventions in elderly patients with CVD, allowing the elderly who can benefit from them to undergo even invasive procedures and avoiding futile or dangerous treatments for the most vulnerable patients. A large number of tools and definitions for assessing frailty have been proposed; different scales and assessment tools can be useful for different purposes, but at present there is no clear indication for their use in CVD. In this chapter, we will describe the main geriatric approach to ascertain frailty, the assessment tools used in patients with cardiovascular diseases, and propose an operational strategy to evaluate frailty and identify patients eligible for pharmacologic or surgical interventions.

The Multidimensional Prognostic Index Predicts Falls in Older People: An 8-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study of the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVES

Falls are associated with several negative outcomes. Early identification of those who are at risk of falling is of importance in geriatrics, and comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) seems to be promising in this regard. Therefore, the present study investigated whether the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI), based on a standard CGA, is associated with falls in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI).

DESIGN

Longitudinal, 8 years of follow-up.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling older people (≥65 years of age) with knee osteoarthritis or at high risk for this condition.

METHODS

A standardized CGA including information on functional, nutritional, mood, comorbidities, medications, quality of life, and cohabitation status was used to calculate a modified version of the MPI, categorized as MPI-1 (low), MPI-2 (moderate), and MPI-3 (high risk). Falls were self-reported and recurrent fallers were defined as ≥2 in the previous year. Logistic regression was carried out and results are reported as odds ratio (ORs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 885 older adults (mean age 71.3 years, female = 54.6%). Recurrent fallers showed a significant higher MPI than their counterparts (0.46 ± 0.17 vs 0.38 ± 0.16; P < .001). Compared with those in MPI-1 category, participants in MPI-2 (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.53‒2.94; P < .001) and in MPI-3 (OR 5.98; 95% CI 3.29-10.86; P < .001) reported a significant higher risk of recurrent falls over the 8-years of follow-up. Similar results were evident when using an increase in 0.1 points in the MPI or risk of falls after 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Higher MPI values at baseline were associated with an increased risk of recurrent falls, suggesting the importance of CGA in predicting falls in older people.

Validation and Adaptation of the Multidimensional Prognostic Index in an Older Australian Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), an objective and quantifiable tool based on the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, has been shown to predict adverse outcomes in European cohorts. We conducted a validation study of the original MPI, and of adapted versions that accounted for the use of specific drugs and cultural diversity in the assessment of cognition, in older Australians.

METHODS

The capacity of the MPI to predict 12-month mortality was assessed in 697 patients (median age: 80 years; interquartile range: 72-86) admitted to a metropolitan teaching hospital between September 2015 and February 2017.

RESULTS

In simple logistic regression analysis, the MPI was associated with 12-month mortality (Low risk: OR reference group; moderate risk: OR 2.50, 95% CI: 1.67-3.75; high risk: OR 4.24, 95% CI: 2.28-7.88). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the unadjusted MPI was 0.61 (0.57-0.65) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.59-0.68) with age and sex adjusted. The adapted versions of the MPI did not significantly change the AUC of the original MPI.

CONCLUSION

The original and adapted MPI were strongly associated with 12-month mortality in an Australian cohort. However, the discriminatory performance was lower than that reported in European studies.

Development and Validation of a Self-Administered Multidimensional Prognostic Index to Predict Negative Health Outcomes in Community-Dwelling Persons

The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)-based tool that accurately predicts negative health outcomes in older subjects with different diseases and settings. To calculate the MPI several validated tools are assessed by health care professionals according to the CGA, whereas self-reported information by the patients is not available, but it could be of importance for the early identification of frailty. We aimed to develop and validate a self-administered MPI (SELFY-MPI) in community-dwelling subjects. For this reason, we enrolled 167 subjects (mean age = 67.3, range = 20–88 years, 51% = men). All subjects underwent a CGA-based assessment to calculate the MPI and the SELFY-MPI. The SELFY-MPI included the assessment of (1) basic and instrumental activities of daily living, (2) mobility, (3) memory, (4) nutrition, (5) comorbidity, (6) number of medications, and (7) socioeconomic situation. The Bland–Altman methodology was used to measure the agreement between MPI and SELFY-MPI. The mean MPI and SELFY-MPI values were 0.147 and 0.145, respectively. The mean difference was +0.002 ± standard deviation of 0.07. Lower and upper 95% limits of agreement were −0.135 and +0.139, respectively, with only 5 of 167 (3%) of observations outside the limits. Stratified analysis by age provided similar results for younger (≤65 years old, n = 45) and older subjects (>65 years, n = 122). The analysis of variances in subjects subdivided according to different year decades showed no differences of agreement according to age. In conclusion, the SELFY-MPI can be used as a prognostic tool in subjects of different ages.

Comprehensive geriatric assessment in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation - results from the CGA-TAVI multicentre registry

Background

In older patients with aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing TAVI, the potential role of prior CGA is not well established. To explore the value of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for predicting mortality and/or hospitalisation within the first 3 months after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI).

Methods

An international, multi-centre, prospective registry (CGA-TAVI) was established to gather data on CGA results and medium-term outcomes in geriatric patients undergoing TAVI. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the predictive value of a multidimensional prognostic index (MPI); a short physical performance battery (SPPB); and the Silver Code, which was based on administrative data, for predicting death and/or hospitalisation in the first 3 months after TAVI (primary endpoint).

Results

A total of 71 TAVI patients (mean age 85.4 years; mean log EuroSCORE I 22.5%) were enrolled. Device success according to VARC criteria was 100%. After adjustment for selected baseline characteristics, a higher (poorer) MPI score (OR: 3.34; 95% CI: 1.39–8.02; p = 0.0068) and a lower (poorer) SPPB score (OR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.01–1.54; p = 0.0380) were found to be associated with an increased likelihood of the primary endpoint. The Silver Code did not show any predictive ability in this population.

Conclusions

Several aspects of the CGA have shown promise for being of use to physicians when predicting TAVI outcomes. While the MPI may be useful in clinical practice, the SPPB may be of particular value, being simple and quick to perform. Validation of these findings in a larger sample is warranted.

Trial registration

The trial was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov on November 7, 2013 (NCT01991444).

Frailty Phenotypes, Disability, and Outcomes in Adult Candidates for Lung Transplantation

RATIONALE

Frailty is associated with morbidity and mortality in abdominal organ transplantation but has not been examined in lung transplantation.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the construct and predictive validity of frailty phenotypes in lung transplant candidates.

METHODS

In a multicenter prospective cohort, we measured frailty with the Fried Frailty Phenotype (FFP) and Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). We evaluated construct validity through comparisons with conceptually related factors. In a nested case-control study of frail and nonfrail subjects, we measured serum IL-6, tumor necrosis factor receptor 1, insulin-like growth factor I, and leptin. We estimated the association between frailty and disability using the Lung Transplant Valued Life Activities disability scale. We estimated the association between frailty and risk of delisting or death before transplant using multivariate logistic and Cox models, respectively.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Of 395 subjects, 354 completed FFP assessments and 262 completed SPPB assessments; 28% were frail by FFP (95% confidence interval [CI], 24-33%) and 10% based on the SPPB (95% CI, 7-14%). By either measure, frailty correlated more strongly with exercise capacity and grip strength than with lung function. Frail subjects tended to have higher plasma IL-6 and tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 and lower insulin-like growth factor I and leptin. Frailty by either measure was associated with greater disability. After adjusting for age, sex, diagnosis, and transplant center, both FFP and SPPB were associated with increased risk of delisting or death before lung transplant. For every 1-point worsening in score, hazard ratios were 1.30 (95% CI, 1.01-1.67) for FFP and 1.53 (95% CI, 1.19-1.59) for SPPB.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is prevalent among lung transplant candidates and is independently associated with greater disability and an increased risk of delisting or death.

Change in the Multidimensional Prognostic Index Score During Hospitalization in Older Patients

We investigated and describe change in the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) score between admission and discharge in 960 older patients admitted to 20 geriatric units for an acute disease or a relapse of a chronic disease. The MPI was calculated at admission and at discharge. Subjects were divided into three groups of MPI score, low risk (MPI-1 value ≤0.33), moderate risk (MPI-2 value 0.34-0.66), and severe risk of mortality (MPI-3 value ≥0.67), on the basis of previously established cutoffs. Variation of MPI values over length of hospital stay (LOS) was analyzed with a multivariable longitudinal linear model for repeated measurements. At admission, 23.5% subjects had an MPI-1 score, 33.3% had an MPI-2 score, and 43.0% had an MPI-3 score. Overall, for almost 60% of the patients, MPI score at hospital discharge was different compared with the score at admission, although the difference was not statistically significant (-0.003; p = 0.708). Patients with high and intermediate MPI scores at admission had a decrease of MPI score at discharge (delta-MPI -0.026, p < 0.001, and delta-MPI -0.066, p = 0.569, respectively), whereas patients in the MPI-low group, experienced a significant increase in MPI score (delta-MPI 0.041, p < 0.001). The evolution of MPI score as a function of LOS had a curvilinear shape because it significantly decreased for patients with short hospitalization (1-6 days) and tended to increase for those with longer LOS. The MPI, a well-established prognostic tool, is sensitive to change of patient's health status and might be used to objectively track and monitor the clinical evolution of acutely ill geriatric patients admitted to the hospital.

The Multidimensional Prognostic Index predicts in-hospital length of stay in older patients: a multicentre prospective study

BACKGROUND

prediction of length of stay (LOS) may be useful to optimise care plans to reduce the negative outcomes related to hospitalisation.

OBJECTIVE

to evaluate whether the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), based on a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), may predict LOS in hospitalised older patients.

DESIGN

prospective multicentre cohort study.

SETTING

twenty Geriatrics Units.

PARTICIPANTS

patients aged 65 and older consecutively admitted to Geriatrics Units.

MEASUREMENT

at admission, the CGA-based MPI was calculated by using a validated algorithm that included information on basal and instrumental activities of daily living, cognitive status, nutritional status, the risk of pressures sores, co-morbidity, number of drugs and co-habitation status. According to validated cut-offs, subjects were divided into three groups of risk, i.e. MPI-1 low risk (value ≤0.33), MPI-2 moderate risk (value 0.34-0.66) and MPI-3 severe risk of mortality (value ≥0.67).

RESULTS

two thousand and thirty-three patients were included; 1,159 were women (57.0%). Age- and sex-adjusted mean LOS in patients divided according to the MPI grade was MPI-1 = 10.1 (95% CI 8.6-11.8), MPI-2 = 12.47 (95% CI 10.7-14.68) and MPI-3 = 13.41 (95% CI 11.5-15.7) days (P for trend <0.001). The overall accuracy of the MPI to predict LOS was good (C-statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.72-0.76). Moreover, a statistically significant trend of LOS means was found even in patients stratified according to their International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) main diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

the MPI is an accurate predictor of LOS in older patients hospitalised with the most frequent diseases.

How healthy is community-dwelling elderly population? Results from Southern Italy

PURPOSE

To explore the frequency of polypharmacy, functional and cognitive capacity among the elderly in Southern Italy.

METHODS

Population-based retrospective cross-sectional study. Information were retrieved from electronic-geriatric-forms matched by record-linkage to outpatient pharmacy-records. The following domains were collected from geriatric forms: BMI, cognitive capacity (SPMSQ), functional status (Barthel-index), mobility, living condition. Polypharmacy status was categorized as non-polypharmacy (0-4), polypharmacy (5-9) and excessive-polypharmacy (≥10). Prevalence of all variables were stratified by age and polypharmacy group.

RESULTS

88,878 old people received a geriatric assessment in the years 2013-2014. Mean age was 74.8 (±7.3) years, 56.6% females. Proportion of elderly in excessive-polypharmacy increased with age (18.9% in 65-75 age-group; 27.9% in >85). Referring to cognitive capacity, the proportion of lucid patients decreased with age (from 94.3% to 58.1%), while confused patient increased with age (from 4.7% to 30.9%). Proportion of subjects with a decline in cognitive status, functional status and mobility increased in polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy group.

CONCLUSION

Polypharmacy is common in people aged 65 years and older with difficulties in activities of daily living and impaired cognition. Furthermore, its prevalence raises with increasing age. Preventive strategies such us optimization of drug regimen should be performed routinely to reduce risk of adverse-health-events.

External validation of the PROFUND index in polypathological patients from internal medicine and acute geriatrics departments in Aragón

The objective of the study was to validate externally and prospectively the PROFUND index to predict survival of polypathological patients after a year. An observational, prospective and multicenter study was performed. Polypathological patients admitted to an internal medicine or geriatrics department and attended by investigators consecutively between March 1 and June 30, 2011 were included. Data concerning age, gender, comorbidity, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs and number of admissions during the previous year were gathered for each patient. The PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 1 year. A Cox proportional regression model was calculated, and was used to analyze the association of the variables to mortality and C-statistic. 465 polypathological patients, 333 from internal medicine and 132 from geriatrics, were included. One-year mortality is associated with age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.52 95 % CI 1.04-2.12; p = 0.01], presence of neoplasia [HR 2.68 95 % CI 1.71-4.18; p = 0.0001] and dependence for basic activities of daily living [HR 2.34 95 % CI 1.61-3.40; p = 0.0009]. In predicting mortality, the PROFUND index shows good discrimination in patients from internal medicine (C-statistics 0.725 95 % CI 0.670-0.781), but a poor one in those from geriatrics (0.546 95 % CI 0.448-0.644). The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting mortality in internal medicine PP patients.

New drugs and patient-centred end-points in old age: setting the wheels in motion

Older patients with various degrees of frailty and disability, a key population target of pharmacological interventions in acute and chronic disease states, are virtually neglected in pre-marketing studies assessing the efficacy and safety of investigational drugs. Moreover, aggressively pursuing established therapeutic targets in old age, e.g. blood pressure, serum glucose or cholesterol concentrations, is not necessarily associated with the beneficial effects, and the acceptable safety, reported in younger patient cohorts. Measures of self-reported health and functional status might represent additional, more meaningful, therapeutic end-points in the older population, particularly in patients with significant frailty and relatively short life expectancy, e.g. in the presence of cancer and/or neurodegenerative disease conditions. Strategies enhancing early knowledge about key pharmacological characteristics of investigational drugs targeting older adults are discussed, together with the rationale for incorporating non-traditional, patient-centred, end-points in this ever-increasing group.

A pilot randomized controlled trial evaluating an integrated treatment of rivastigmine transdermal patch and cognitive stimulation in patients with Alzheimer's disease

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate in a pilot single-blind randomized controlled clinical trial the efficacy of an integrated treatment with rivastigmine transdermal patch (RTP) and cognitive stimulation (CS) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients at 6-month follow-up.

METHODS

We enrolled 90 patients with an age ≥65 years admitted to the outpatient Alzheimer's Evaluation Unit with diagnosis of AD. Patients were randomized to enter in the Group-1 (RTP + CS) or in the Group-2 (RTP). All patients at baseline and after 6 months were evaluated with the following tools: Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI), Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Distress (NPI-D), and a standardized Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, including also activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA). Mortality risk was assessed using the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI).

RESULTS

At baseline no significant difference was shown between the two groups. After 6 months of follow-up, there were significant differences between Group-1 and Group-2 in: MMSE: +6.39% vs. +2.69%, CDR: +6.92% vs. +1.54%, HDRS-D = -60.7% vs. -45.8%, GDS: -60.9% vs. -7.3%, NPI: -55.2% vs. -32.7%%, NPI-D: -55.1% vs. -18.6%, ADL: +13.88% vs. +5.95%, IADL: +67.59% vs. +18.28%, MNA: +12.02% vs. +5.91%, and MPI: -29.03% vs. -12.90%.

CONCLUSION

The integrated treatment of RTP with CS in AD patients for 6 months improved significantly cognition, depressive and neuropsychiatric symptoms, functional status, and mortality risk in comparison with a group of AD patients receiving only RTP.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index in Association with Future Mortality and Number of Hospital Days in a Population-Based Sample of Older Adults: Results of the EU Funded MPI_AGE Project

Background

The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) has been found to predict mortality in patients with a variety of clinical conditions. We aimed to assess the association of the MPI with future mortality and number of in-hospital days for the first time in a population-based cohort.

Methods

The study population consisted of 2472 persons, aged 66–99 years, from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, Sweden, who underwent the baseline visit 2001–4, and were followed up >10 years for in-hospital days and >12 years for mortality. The MPI was a modified version of the original and aggregated seven domains (personal and instrumental activities of daily living, cognitive function, illness severity and comorbidity, number of medications, co-habitation status, and nutritional status). The MPI score was divided into risk groups: low, medium and high. Number of in-hospital days (within 1, 3 and 10 years) and mortality data were derived from official registries. All analyses were age-stratified (sexagenarians, septuagenarians, octogenarians, nonagenarians).

Results

During the follow-up 1331 persons (53.8%) died. Laplace regression models, suggested that median survival in medium risk groups varied by age from 2.2–3.6 years earlier than for those in the corresponding low risk groups (p = 0.002-p<0.001), and median survival in high risk groups varied by age from 3.8–9.0 years earlier than for corresponding low risk groups (p<0.001). For nonagenarians, the median age at death was 3.8 years earlier in the high risk group than for the low risk group (p<0.001). The mean number of in-hospital days increased significantly with higher MPI risk score within 1 and 3 years for people of each age group.

Conclusion

For the first time, the effectiveness of MPI has been verified in a population-based cohort. Higher MPI risk scores associated with more days in hospital and with fewer years of survival, across a broad and stratified age range.

Perspective: the challenge of clinical decision-making for drug treatment in older people. The role of multidimensional assessment and prognosis

A complex decision path with a careful evaluation of the risk-benefit ratio is mandatory for drug treatment in advanced age. Enrollment biases in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) cause an under-representation of older individuals. In high-risk frail older subjects, the lack of RCTs makes clinical decision-making particularly difficult. Frail individuals are markedly susceptible to adverse drug reactions, and frailty may result in reduced treatment efficacy. Life expectancy should be included in clinical decision-making paths to better assess the benefits and risks of different drug treatments in advanced age. We performed a scoping review of principal hospital- and community-based prognostic indices in older age. Mortality prognostic tools could help clinical decision-making in diagnostics and therapeutics, tailoring appropriate intervention for older patients. The effectiveness of drug treatments may be significantly different in older patients with different risk of mortality. Clinicians need to consider the prognostic information obtained through well-validated, accurate, and calibrated predictive tools to identify those patients who may benefit from drug treatments given with the aim of increasing survival.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index predicts mortality and length of stay during hospitalization in the older patients: a multicenter prospective study

BACKGROUND

The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is a validated predictive tool for long-term mortality based on information collected in a standardized Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment. We investigated whether the MPI is an effective predictor of intrahospital mortality and length of hospital stay after admission to acute geriatric wards.

METHODS

Prospective study of 1,178 older patients (702 women and 476 men, 85.0±6.8 years) admitted to 20 geriatrics units. Within 48 hours from admission, the MPI, according to an earlier validated algorithm, was calculated. Subjects were divided into three groups of MPI score, low-risk (MPI-1 value ≤ 0.33), moderate-risk (MPI-2 value 0.34-0.66), and severe-risk of mortality (MPI-3 value ≥ 0.67), on the basis of earlier established cut-offs. Associations with in-hospital mortality and length of stay were examined using multivariable Cox regression models and adjusted Poisson linear mixed-effects models, respectively.

RESULTS

At admission, 23.6% subjects had a MPI-1 score, 33.8% had a MPI-2 score, and 42.6% had a MPI-3 score. Subjects with higher MPI score at admission were older (p < .001), more frequently women (p < .001) and had higher prevalence of common chronic conditions. After adjustment for age, gender, and diseases, patients included in the MPI-2 and MPI-3 groups had a significantly higher risk for intrahospital mortality (hazard ratio: 3.48, 95% confidence intervals: 1.02-11.88, p = .047; hazard ratio: 8.31, 95% confidence intervals: 2.54-27.19, p < .001) than patients included in the MPI-1 group, respectively. In multivariable model, length of stay significantly increased across the three MPI groups (11.29 [0.5], 13.73 [1.3], and 15.30 [1.4] days, respectively [p < .0001]).

CONCLUSIONS

In older acute care inpatients, MPI score assessed at hospital admission is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality and the length of hospital stay.

Identification of a metabolic signature for multidimensional impairment and mortality risk in hospitalized older patients

A combination of several metabolic and hormonal adaptations has been proposed to control aging. Little is known regarding the effects of multiple deregulations of these metabolic and hormonal systems in modulating frailty and mortality in hospitalized elderly patients. We measured 17 biological serum parameters from different metabolic/hormonal pathways in 594 hospitalized elderly patients followed up to 1 year who were stratified into three groups according to their multidimensional impairment, evaluated by a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA)-based Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI). The mortality incidence rates were 7% at 1 month and 21% at 1 year. Our data show that frailty and mortality rate were positively associated with chronic inflammation and with a down-regulation of multiple endocrine factors. Of the 17 biomarkers examined, blood levels of IGF-1, triiodothyronine, C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, white blood cell and lymphocyte counts, iron, albumin, total cholesterol, and LDL-c were significantly associated with both MPI severity grade and mortality. In multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the following biomarkers most strongly predicted the risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per 1 quintile increment in predictor distribution): IGF-1 HR = 0.71 (95% CI: 0.63-0.80), CRP HR = 1.48 (95% CI: 1.32-1.65), hemoglobin HR = 0.82 (95% CI: 0.73-0.92), and glucose HR = 1.17 (95% CI: 1.04-1.30). Multidimensional impairment assessed by MPI is associated with a distinctive metabolic 'signature'. The concomitant elevation of markers of inflammation, associated with a simultaneous reduction in multiple metabolic and hormonal factors, predicts mortality in hospitalized elderly patients.

Development and validation of a Multidimensional Prognostic Index for mortality based on a standardized Multidimensional Assessment Schedule (MPI-SVaMA) in community-dwelling older subjects

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) for mortality based on information collected by the Multidimensional Assessment Schedule (SVaMA), the recommended standard tool for multidimensional assessment of community-dwelling older subjects in seven Italian regions.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling subjects older than 65 years who underwent an SVaMA evaluation from 2004 to 2010 in Padova Health District, Veneto, Italy.

MEASUREMENTS

The MPI-SVaMA was calculated as a weighted (weights were derived from multivariate Cox regressions) linear combination of the following nine domains: age, sex, main diagnosis, and six scores, ie, the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire, the Barthel index (contains two domains: activities of daily living and mobility), the Exton-Smith scale, the Nursing Care Needs, and the Social Network Support by a structured interview. Subjects were followed for a median of 2 years; those who had not died were followed for at least 1 year. The MPI-SVaMA score ranged from 0 to 1 and 3 grades of severity of the MPI-SVaMA were calculated on the basis of estimated cutoffs. Discriminatory power and calibration were further assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 12,020 subjects (mean age 81.84 ± 7.97 years) were included. Two random cohorts were selected: (1) a development cohort, ie, 7876 subjects (mean age 81.79 ± 8.05, %females: 63.1) and (2) a validation cohort, ie, 4144 subjects (mean age: 81.95 ± 7.83, %females: 63.7). The discriminatory power for mortality of MPI-SVaMA was 0.828 (95% CI 0.817-0.838) and 0.832 (95% CI 0.818-0.845) at 1 month and 0.791 (95% CI 0.784-0.798) and 0.792 (95% CI 0.783-0.802) at 1 year in development and validation cohorts, respectively. MPI-SVaMA results were well calibrated showing lower than 10% differences between predicted and observed mortality, both in development and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The MPI-SVaMA is an accurate and well-calibrated prognostic tool for mortality in community-dwelling older subjects, and can be used in clinical decision making.